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Jeremy Hill, RB (LVR) (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter zed2283
- Start date
Skoo
Footballguy
Thanks man, I sure hope so!
I figure with Antonio Brown, Jordy, and Gronk I just need my RBs to not be complete busts. Which is also why I drafted 8 of them.
Todem
Footballguy
Landed him at 4.01 and am thrilled. I truly believe a top 10 RB is on my roster this season with Hill. I also have A.J Green (1.12) so a couple of Bengals this season to root for.
Like you Skoo I went WR/WR/WR (Green, Dez , Cooper) so we just need Hill to be the back we know he can be.
Like you Skoo I went WR/WR/WR (Green, Dez , Cooper) so we just need Hill to be the back we know he can be.
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bostonfred
Footballguy
31 rushing, 0 receiving, 1 td.
Bernard had 25 rushing and 2 catches for 5 yards.
Bernard had 25 rushing and 2 catches for 5 yards.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
Yeah--I'm not too worried about today. As posters have mentioned--they were playing against a crazy tough defense--with no Eiffert and a fairly new squad of WRs. I think the Jets were going to try to focus on Green (which is almost impossible to do when he's healthy) and stopping the running game. The fact that Hill almost managed double digit fantasy points in quite possibly the toughest circumstances he faces all season--that's not too bad.
Carter_Can_Fly
Footballguy
This guy stinks.
Somehow Cincy continue to try to get him involved. Cincy would be a much better team if they just moved away from Hill and made Gio the guy there. Hill looks like a back up NFL rb. He is slow to the holes, has no burst and can't make a guy miss. He had a good run 2 years as a rookie in the second half, but he is looking more like a Trent Richardson clone.
Somehow Cincy continue to try to get him involved. Cincy would be a much better team if they just moved away from Hill and made Gio the guy there. Hill looks like a back up NFL rb. He is slow to the holes, has no burst and can't make a guy miss. He had a good run 2 years as a rookie in the second half, but he is looking more like a Trent Richardson clone.
They have played the NYJ and the PIT D.
Please.
And they get Denver next week.
So guess what? It gets worse.
And after the Denver game I'm buying low everywhere.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
Gio wouldn't be able to hold up as the guy. His role is perfect for him. Hill is a great buy low.
Carter_Can_Fly
Footballguy
Buy low?
He was awful last year but was fortunate enough to get some td's to make his year look better than it was. He really looks bad going on 2 years in a row.
He was awful last year but was fortunate enough to get some td's to make his year look better than it was. He really looks bad going on 2 years in a row.
Carter_Can_Fly
Footballguy
All rb's get hurt. Big rb's, small rb's, medium sized rb's. Injuries are most times just bad luck.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Hill finished just outside the top 15 RBs in about five of my leagues last year. He started slow last year, too.
Hill leads the NFL in rushing TDs since his 2014 rookie season (despite only starting half of his rookie campaign). There is a possibility in his third straight season he could be "fortunate enough to get some td's to make his year look better than it was", whatever that means. CIN moves the ball well, gets in the red zone often and feeds him a lot when they get there. Since two games in 2016 isn't really a "year", he really hasn't looked bad for going on two years in a row. He finished near top 15 last year, and has played two games this year. Not every team can have a half dozen #1 RBs on their roster (in a 14 team league like most of mine).
How many other skill position players (RB, WR & TE) that lead their respective positions in combined TDs the past two seasons (2014 & 2015) were "awful"?
Sankey has been "awful". I wouldn't use that to describe a RB with a near top 15 finish in 2015 who has only played two games in 2016. For perspective, Hill is doing a little better than Devonta Freeman through his first two games.
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Carter_Can_Fly
Footballguy
Started slow last year? Did he every get better? I am talking about actual NFL ability vs fantasy and even then you are being generous. I pointed out the TD's because he would have had even more crappy games than he had last year due to punching in some td's which saved some weeks. His year end stats ended up looking better than they were in fantasy due to those TD's. When he was scoring some of those td's I am assuming he was on peoples benches because he was putting up so many clunkers that people stopped playing him.
He had 223 carries last year and finished with a minuscule 794 yards, which was good enough for 18th in total rushing yards. There was 8 rbs that had more yards than him with less carries. He also was not able to create big plays and or catch passes. It could be argued he was one of the bottom 5 starting rbs in the NFL last year.
I know a lot of the footballguys staff were drooling over Hill and that rookie year. He is the second best RB on his team and Hill is again off to a slow/normal start? Regardless Cincy looks much better with Gio as the guy or at least as the guy who should garner more touches.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
1) Everybody would do worse if they had less TDs than more TDs and would do better if they had more TDs than less TDs. Just pointing out that he leads the NFL in rushing TDs since his rookie 2014 season, so it could be misleading to state he wouldn't have done as good if he hadn't done as good when he did do as good - his only two seasons in a row. TDs count in real football as well as fantasy football (and you are talking about both real and fantasy football here). He finished near 15th among RBs and didn't start that well, so yes, evidently he got better. If RBs score a lot consistently and every week, they would be #1 RBs. There aren't dozens of #1 RBs that score every week, so inevitably you have to roster and in some cases start RBs that don't score like a #1 RB every week.Carter_Can_Fly said:
2) Again, what other other skill position player (WR/TE) led the NFL in TDs since 2014 that "stinks" or was "awful"? How many "bottom 5 starting WRs or TEs" did that? Sankey stinks. Sankey is awful. A lot of people were drooling over Sankey and talking about how some were too down on him, finding reasons to like him when there were none, and inexplicably giving false hope for a lost cause. Stinks and awful would be more appropriate labels and descriptive terms for his level of play, not a RB that led the NFL in rushing TDs since 2014, finished near top 15 in 2015 and more like a top 10 RB his half season of starts in 2014. Awful, stinky Sankey isn't even on an NFL roster.
3) He was near top 15 in 2015 and has played just two games so far in 2016. That isn't "going on two years of really looking bad". He is doing a bit better than Devonta Freeman this year.
4) How many teams are in your league/s (in mine, 14 is the norm - one 16, one redraft 12)? So if Hill was 18th in rushing yards AND #1 in rushing TDs for 2014 & 2015 combined, that is going to work out to what he was, a near top 15 RB. Now, if you were in a two or four person league, it might be different, and he would be a lot less startable.
* In part driven by usage differences, but a look at if Hill has done better in the second half in his first two (only) seasons.
COMBINED first/second half splits 2014 & 2015
First Half (2014 & 2015)
Bernard (15 games, 200-954-7 rushing, 43-334-0 receiving)
Hill (16 games, 178-691-10 rushing, 19-175-1 receiving)
Second Half (2014 & 2015)
Bernard (14 games, 122-456-0 rushing, 49-487-0 receiving)
Hill (16 games, 267-1,227-10 rushing, 23-119-0 receiving)
For those playing along at home, in the second relative to first half of the 2014 & 2015 seasons COMBINED:
Bernard's carries DECLINED from 200 to 122, rushing yards from 954 to 456 and rushing TDs from 7 to 0.
Hill's carries INCREASED from 178 to 267, rushing yards from 691 to 1,227 and rushing TDs same at 10.
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Carter_Can_Fly
Footballguy
Guys that put up stats like Hill did all of last year and through 2 games this year get phased out of offenses pretty quickly if that trend continues.
You have highlighted he has scored td's which is nice and all and which may take a certain skill set to be elite at but you can find other players that started out scoring td's and became nothing more than back ups and or just became guys. Trent Richardson had 11 as a rookie, Brandon Jacobs had 16 his first 2 years, Alfred Morris had 20 through his first 2 years and it looks as though Hill is trending towards those career paths at this stage in time.
Outside of Hill scoring TD's can you explain what Hill has done through the last 18 games that should have anyone excited about him moving forward?
I may be wrong and he may starting playing better but as of right now he really does not look very good.
You have highlighted he has scored td's which is nice and all and which may take a certain skill set to be elite at but you can find other players that started out scoring td's and became nothing more than back ups and or just became guys. Trent Richardson had 11 as a rookie, Brandon Jacobs had 16 his first 2 years, Alfred Morris had 20 through his first 2 years and it looks as though Hill is trending towards those career paths at this stage in time.
Outside of Hill scoring TD's can you explain what Hill has done through the last 18 games that should have anyone excited about him moving forward?
I may be wrong and he may starting playing better but as of right now he really does not look very good.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Richardson only had 3 TDs his second season, which might have been an EWS (early warning system). Jacobs only had 522 rushing yards in his first two seasons so not strictly comparable (did either player lead the NFL in rushing TDs their first two seasons COMBINED, which was the mark I was alluding to?). Morris also had 28 TDs and about 4,000 yards combined in his first THREE seasons. He had a good run. Not too many RBs average about 1,300 yards and 10+ TDs rushing for 5-10 years in a row. I'm not sure he couldn't have started for some other teams last year, the RB that replaced him hasn't exactly set the league on fire so maybe Gruden made a mistake (and he isn't going to start over Elliot in DAL, one of the best RB prospects in the past decade with Peterson and Gurley), but that doesn't mean he is "awful" or "stinks", the hyperbolic descriptive terms used above. I'm admittedly not an expert on Morris, don't follow him that closely, can't say if his play declined or slipped appreciably and thus leading to his demotion.
You may be overestimating Bernard's ability to be a workhorse (or at least the confidence of the CIN coaching staff that he can be - imo the first/second half season splits in 2014 & 2015 aren't entirely random and accidental, but reflect this concern), so it may not be a simple matter of just giving him 300 carries a season. He may wear down and not be able to take that kind of beating, and Hill is built to take that kind of pounding. Hill did note after the season a leg injury last year, he looked like he regained some more explosiveness and burst in the second half of the season that seemed absent at the beginning. He also appeared to run more tentatively after the two fumble game in SD early in 2015, compared to when he ran with more reckless abandon in his far superior rookie campaign. Another difference, in his rookie season CIN seemed to deploy him in more power I formations (where he could receive the hand off with a full head of steam as he approached the hole), and last year he wasn't nearly as effective in shot gun - where he receives the ball from a stop.
What I'm saying about the TDs is you can't just blow them off and pretend they didn't happen when that is what he does best. It would be similar to saying, take away all Bernard's receptions and he wouldn't be a noteworthy back. Well, YEAH!
But why do that. What about Sankey should have had anybody excited about him moving forward, when some were trying to find hope in a lost cause (when he truly stunk and was awful)?I've already said a number of times, I need to see Hill flash more of the form seen in his rookie year or I will be reevaluating him. And even if he doesn't but leads the league in rushing TDs again, and finishes near top 15 among RBs again, than imo shoveling dirt on the grave of his NFL career two games into the 2016 season will in retrospect have been jumping the gun and premature.
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voiceofunreason
Footballguy
Yep, he's awful.
RenegadeRoy
Footballguy
Hill may get TDs, but when he doesn't he puts up trash numbers. Do you know which weeks he's going to go 11 for 55 and 2 TDs and which he's going to to 12 for 26 and 0 TDs?
That's why he's a bad fantasy player.
That's why he's a bad fantasy player.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
How many RBs score a lot consistently every week, that aren't #1 RBs? There aren't 30-40 of those kind of RBs. He was more consistent once he started in 2014 than last year. Maybe he will never regain that form, but imo too early to say that.
Referencing just one representative league I'm in, in the first six games in 2015, Bernard scored 10+ points every game:
14.8, 18.9, 11.3, 12.2, 15.1 & 14.3 (actually a bit less, as several leagues give .5 PPR for RB, but I treated as PPR)
In the last 10 game in 2015, Bernard DIDN'T score 10+ in eight games:
5.4, 9.6, 12.9, 24.6, 8.7, 4.5, 9.7, 9.1, 8.3 & 5.8
Not exactly an ironclad historical law, but in their two seasons together, Bernard has done better in the first half and falls off in the second half (so he seems to have some inconsistency issues of his own), Hill has done worse in the first half and better in the second half.
Part of that in the first half of 2014 was no doubt Bernard starting, and in the second half missing three games. But the pattern was to some extent replicated last year, too (when Hill was the starter, and Bernard wasn't hurt to my knowledge).
Referencing just one representative league I'm in, in the first six games in 2015, Bernard scored 10+ points every game:
14.8, 18.9, 11.3, 12.2, 15.1 & 14.3 (actually a bit less, as several leagues give .5 PPR for RB, but I treated as PPR)
In the last 10 game in 2015, Bernard DIDN'T score 10+ in eight games:
5.4, 9.6, 12.9, 24.6, 8.7, 4.5, 9.7, 9.1, 8.3 & 5.8
Not exactly an ironclad historical law, but in their two seasons together, Bernard has done better in the first half and falls off in the second half (so he seems to have some inconsistency issues of his own), Hill has done worse in the first half and better in the second half.
Part of that in the first half of 2014 was no doubt Bernard starting, and in the second half missing three games. But the pattern was to some extent replicated last year, too (when Hill was the starter, and Bernard wasn't hurt to my knowledge).
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So it happened once (other than the year Bernard started the year as the starter). That's not a pattern.
mnmplayer
Footballguy
Heeeeees back! Two words. Matt Asiata. Same TD rate as Hill. It's a wonder whey they don't make him the starter <g>. I lump Matt Asiata in the same league as Hill. This is no knock on Hill either. These guys are TD machines! Matt Asiata is now going to get unleashed once again in 2016.
It will be interesting to see who scores more TDs going forward since Matt Asiata I now BACK IN THE PICTURE! Matt Asiata has more TDs than any other backup during the 2013-2014 seasons (including many starting ones too), and now he is going to get another shot! He has the same TD rate as the stud Hill
Get ready for Matt Asiata part deux. He is to backup RBs what Jeremy Hill is to starting ones! sorry in advance for thread hijack, but if you like Hill you will love Matt Asiata! Two players of the same mold!
Just remember than any argument you make with Hill can also be made for Matt Asiata (when it comes to TDs), the only difference is Matt Asiata can also catch passes well!
It will be interesting to see who scores more TDs going forward since Matt Asiata I now BACK IN THE PICTURE! Matt Asiata has more TDs than any other backup during the 2013-2014 seasons (including many starting ones too), and now he is going to get another shot! He has the same TD rate as the stud Hill
Get ready for Matt Asiata part deux. He is to backup RBs what Jeremy Hill is to starting ones! sorry in advance for thread hijack, but if you like Hill you will love Matt Asiata! Two players of the same mold!
Just remember than any argument you make with Hill can also be made for Matt Asiata (when it comes to TDs), the only difference is Matt Asiata can also catch passes well!
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Hill leads the league in TDs since 2014.
Asiata has three or less rushing TDs in three of his four seasons.
Also has under 900 CAREER rushing yards in four plus seasons.
Hill had nearly that much in 2015 in an off year, and more than that in the last nine games of 2014 alone (I forgot, that was pure luck ).
But, yeah, other than those minor details, they are uncannily alike.
But, yeah, other than those minor details, they are uncannily alike.
But, yeah, other than those minor details, they are uncannily alike.
Asiata has three or less rushing TDs in three of his four seasons.
Also has under 900 CAREER rushing yards in four plus seasons.
Hill had nearly that much in 2015 in an off year, and more than that in the last nine games of 2014 alone (I forgot, that was pure luck
).But, yeah, other than those minor details, they are uncannily alike.
But, yeah, other than those minor details, they are uncannily alike.
But, yeah, other than those minor details, they are uncannily alike.
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djmich
Footballguy
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
In some ways 2016 does resemble 2014.
No Lewis or Sanu and Eifert is injured. They do have depleted receiving weapons, but Green is healthy and Boyd looks like a keeper.
And Dalton is in a different place. He set a career high in attempts Sunday (54?), we won't see that every week.
mnmplayer
Footballguy
Repeating your mantra 3 times? Fitting.Hill leads the league in TDs since 2014. a 2 year sample size, just like I gave for Asiata, from (2013-2014, 2 years of use when he had a chance to play)
Asiata has three or less rushing TDs in three of his four seasons. (not the ones where he had usage. He had only 3 carries in 2012, 29 in 2015 and 10 in 2016. When he had usage in 2013-2014 he had 193 carries and 12 TDs. SO saying he has 3 or less rushing TDs in 3 of his 4 seasons is a bit disingenuous at worst, and ignorant at best to throw that statistic out there.)
Also has under 900 CAREER rushing yards in four plus seasons. He has only 250 carries and has 12 TDs! 1 TD per 20.8 carries. Hill has a rate of 1 per 22 so Asiata actually beats him on a per rush basis in TD production which u love to tout. He also has 70 recs to Hills 45, 50% more catches in half the opportunity.
Hill had nearly that much in 2015 in an off year, and more than that in the last nine games of 2014 alone (I forgot, that was pure luck
But, yeah, other than those minor details, they are uncannily alike.
But, yeah, other than those minor details, they are uncannily alike.
But, yeah, other than those minor details, they are uncannily alike.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Just a call out to your repetition.
"Same TD rate as Hill."
"He has the same TD rate as the stud Hill"
"Just remember than any argument you make with Hill can also be made for Matt Asiata (when it comes to TDs)..."
* Anyway, we'll see how well chosen a comparison Asiata ends up being.
1) I don't get extra points for doing best among back up RB TDs, or for usage ratio success.
2) It could be a fallacy to assume because he had a good conversion rate on fewer carries, we should automatically assume he would have with a larger sample. By that rationale, if a backup gets a TD on their first carry, you could just extrapolate they would get 300 TDs from 300 carries, small sample success doesn't NECESSARILY translate to identical success with larger samples which you seem to be unwittingly implying (that *ASSUMPTION* to quote you - is a bit disingenuous at worst, and ignorant at best) If a WR gets a reception on his first attempt of the season, all you have to do is throw to him 200 times and you are guaranteed to get 200 receptions. Just make a simple linear extrapolation from the past. It's that easy!
3) See the above.
* To expand on the fallacy of point 2 above, if Asiata had only one carry in every season and scored a TD each time, that would be a perfect conversion percentage. So that would make him more valuable than Adrian Peterson, and you should easily be able to acquire him in a trade on that basis. Makes sense by your rationale?
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Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Agree, don't expect 54 attempts regularly, and that is sort of what I meant by Dalton has a different standing relative to two years ago. My only question is how balanced they will be or not. I think they would probably LIKE to get their running game going, because they would be more dangerous and better able to keep defenses off balance if they are a dual threat. The SF teams with Montana/Young, Craig/Waters/Rathman, Rice/Taylor/TO and Jones were nearly impossible to defend because no matter what defenses did they had an answer (though nearly everybody remembers them as a predominantly passing team, they had 2,000 yards rushing one season). The passing game won't always click (see just about every playoff loss), there will be games they need to run, so it would make sense to reconstitute it and make it a more consistent and credible threat. They will still throw more than run, but if their OVERALL offensive balance and efficiency improves their could be room for Dalton, Green, Eifert and Hill/Bernard to succeed.
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mnmplayer
Footballguy
The point of my using Matt Asiata is to highlight (1) the small sample size you are using for Hill; (2) the high variance/luckiness factor of using TDs as the crux of your pro-Hill argument. Of course Asiata isn't special. I have pointed that out numerous times in this thread. However, he had a high TD conversion rate for a small sample size, just like Hill which you point to repeatedly as what makes Hill special.Just a call out to your repetition.
"Same TD rate as Hill."
"He has the same TD rate as the stud Hill"
"Just remember than any argument you make with Hill can also be made for Matt Asiata (when it comes to TDs)..."
* Anyway, we'll see how well chosen a comparison Asiata ends up being.
1) I don't get extra points for doing best among back up RB TDs, or for usage ratio success.
2) It could be a fallacy to assume because he had a good conversion rate on fewer carries, we should automatically assume he would have with a larger sample. By that rationale, if a backup gets a TD on their first carry, you could just extrapolate they would get 300 TDs from 300 carries, small sample success doesn't NECESSARILY translate to identical success with larger samples which you seem to be unwittingly implying (that *ASSUMPTION* to quote you - is a bit disingenuous at worst, and ignorant at best) If a WR gets a reception on his first attempt of the season, all you have to do is throw to him 200 times and you are guaranteed to get 200 receptions. Just make a simple linear extrapolation from the past. It's that easy!
3) See the above.
* To expand on the fallacy of point 2 above, if Asiata had only one carry in every season and scored a TD each time, that would be a perfect conversion percentage. So that would make him more valuable than Adrian Peterson, and you should easily be able to acquire him in a trade on that basis. Makes sense by your rationale?
Jeremy Hill's , ypc, total yards and overall effectiveness has been degrading for the length of his career (and wasn't that special in 2014 if you take out his outlandish games vs the worst defenses where he racked up a ton of points). If you compare his stats of 2015 223 touches with 11 TDs and compare them with Matt Asiata's career touches of 250 with 12 TD, both have abysmal ypc rates of 3.5 and 3.6, they compare rather closely, except Mattasiata also catches passes.
The AP injury makes things interesting because now we have a situation in Min that closely compares with Cin with a RB time split. Both have the more athletic/dynamic RB (Gio/McKinnon) vs the plodder/TD producer (Hill/Asiata). So going forward they will compare very closely week to week in touches. It will be interesting to watch this season unfold because my theory is Matt Asiata can be just as or more productive than Jeremy Hill in the same situation, especially when you consider his pass catching ability which is better than Hill's. In PPR I would not be suprised if Asiata outscores Hill from wk3 on. That says alot about Hill's skillset.
My theory last year was that is Hill is nothing more special than a typical Matt Asiata type which you vehemently denied, claiming Hill was special. Let's see how it pans out. We don't need to debate our theories any longer. We can just watch I play out the ROS.
ETA: Matt Asiata also has a fumble rate that is less than half the rate of Jeremy Hill
Asiata has fumbled 2 times in 321 career touches (1 fumble per 160 touches)
Hill has fumbled 9 times in 536 touches (1 fumble per 59.6 touches)
Or to put it another way, Hill fumbles almost 3 times as often as Asiata (2.7). This is not exactly ideal for a power back who is put in for short yardage, high leverage TD production type scenarios. I don't think anyone can forget Hills fumble in the playoffs last year. We might expect Hill's fumble rate to be more characteristic of a dynamic runner who might get careless with the ball as he is juking defenders, however this is not the case with Hill.
Even Gio who I think we all agree is a more dynamic runner has only 5 fumbles on 709 touches (1 per 141.8).
While fumbles are not going to change the point totals drastically in FFB, this coupled with a lack of pass catching takes a toll and if it continues could threaten Hill's usage in high leverage situations such as goal line opps, especially if another plodder is drafted to the team and doesn't have a high tendency to fumble. It's just another blot on Hills record that says avoid.
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cheese
Footballguy
The Bengals are going to score a lot more than the Vikings though. Seems like that should be a factor if we're discussing TD prone RBs.
I don't really think he's a plodder. He's a power back trying to play in a spread offense. Sometimes that works for fantasy (Mark Ingram?) but other times it's just not a fit.
I don't really think he's a plodder. He's a power back trying to play in a spread offense. Sometimes that works for fantasy (Mark Ingram?) but other times it's just not a fit.
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bostonfred
Footballguy
In best ball leagues, sure. But when he gets 15 for 52 against cleveland then 7 for 15 against houston, will you start him against arizona for his 13 for 45 and 2 touchdowns?
Jeremy hill had 4 multi td games last year. He had 179 rushing yards in those games. If you project him for 45 yards and a high probability of a td are you going to start him?
Actyally, forget that. He averaged less than 50 rush yards per game last year with 794 in 16 games. He had games of 13, 15, 16, 21, 31, 39, 40 and 45 rushing yards. That's 8 of his games. He scored 7 touchdowns in those games. Unfortunately, they came in 3 games. If you'd like to expand it to include his games with 52, 56, 60, 63 and 63 yards, you'll get two more touchdowns - which both came in one more game with 2 tds. You can't play matchups with a guy you expect to run for 40 or 50 yards.
cheese
Footballguy
The RB position is terrible. 45 rushing yards and a good chance for a TD puts you in the RB2 discussion which is where he went. All those numbers you posted proving Hill wasnt very good. I agree and yet he finished 18th in rushing yards. So your list of options that are likely to get more than 45 + good chance of TD is short.
RB has nearly become TE in leagues you play multiple RBs so yes he's startable.
RB has nearly become TE in leagues you play multiple RBs so yes he's startable.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
The goal-line back in a very good offense is "fortunate" when he scores TDs? I don't own Hill anywhere but it's so funny to see the bias between Hill and Gio owners rear its head.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
He's only had 20 carries on the season against two tough run defenses - how would he have great stats? What has Gio done running the ball? The answer is "less".
I'm starting to think he will be a good buy low candidate after the Denver game, where the Bengals running game will likely struggle once again.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Finishing rb18 in 16 games doesn't make you startable. It means you stayed healthy long enough to accumulate stats in spite of awful play.
Ppg doesn't even tell the whole story as a guy like darren mcfadden didn't start the season but finished really strong.
Starting a guy who gets 4 or 5 points when he doesn't get a td - in over half of his contests - is a recipe for losing. He's an emergency bye week player until or unless gio is hurt.
cheese
Footballguy
NCPanthersFan
Footballguy
Drafted Hill with the understanding that his season did not begin until week 4 for me. After that fingers crossed. Otherwise feels like deja vu.
packersfan
Footballguy
I'm reasonably pleased with his production the first two games. Thought last week would be a little better (had a goal-line shot that didn't work out). But overall decent enough. On my bench this week in favor of Tevin Coleman. I was impressed by how he looked in the preseason and like you I'm hoping for more of a commitment to the run moving forward. I'll re-assess things following this week's game and go from there. The team I have him on is very strong so I'm in a good position where he's more of an additional asset and not someone I need to rely on right now. I can afford to be patient with him.
bostonfred
Footballguy
It doesn't sound fun watching him blow up on your bench against denver.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
There just aren't 50-100 RBs that average 100 yards and a TD each week.
Most teams don't have a half dozen #1 RBs in 12-14-16 tams leagues.
Hill came into week 3 ahead of Devonta Freeman.*
* If Freeman underperforms in 2016, that will be two of his three career seasons.
If Hill turns things around and runs more like 2014, that will be two of three positive seasons in his career.
Reversals happen all the time. Some RBs are great every year, some terrible every year, many in between have ups and downs throughout their career.
Most teams don't have a half dozen #1 RBs in 12-14-16 tams leagues.
Hill came into week 3 ahead of Devonta Freeman.*
* If Freeman underperforms in 2016, that will be two of his three career seasons.
If Hill turns things around and runs more like 2014, that will be two of three positive seasons in his career.
Reversals happen all the time. Some RBs are great every year, some terrible every year, many in between have ups and downs throughout their career.
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bostonfred
Footballguy
Did you start him this week?
jbradford787
Footballguy
bostonfred
Footballguy
That's about the perfect role for him. High upside bench depth for an occasional spot start until/unless gio misses time.
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Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Hill had a down year in 2015 (just like it looks Freeman may in 2016), but he helped a lot of teams win as a starter in the second half of 2014. Even some of his worst detractors admitted they were wrong about him by the end of the year. They could be wrong again.
Gio did miss three games in Hill's rookie season, but played 13, so a bit of a myth that Hill can't produce consistently unless Gio is out. Hill had two 150 rushing yard games when Bernard was out. Lots of RBBC backs get hurt for a few games, if it was "just that easy" for the remaining back to have multiple 150 yard games in the absence, you would see it a lot more often. Hill outplayed Bernard, which is why he took over the starting job (otherwise, how often do incumbent starters lose their job just because of a three game absence?). Bernard had a similar Y/C average before AND AFTER he returned from his injury in 2014. It is purely speculative to say Hill padded his stats because Bernard was "hurt" when he returned, when there is statistical evidence to suggest Bernard ran virtually identically.
* BTW, there is data about Hill's percentage in starting lineups, which is vastly more useful than anecdotal tracking which excludes 99.999+% percent of the relevant population.
Gio did miss three games in Hill's rookie season, but played 13, so a bit of a myth that Hill can't produce consistently unless Gio is out. Hill had two 150 rushing yard games when Bernard was out. Lots of RBBC backs get hurt for a few games, if it was "just that easy" for the remaining back to have multiple 150 yard games in the absence, you would see it a lot more often. Hill outplayed Bernard, which is why he took over the starting job (otherwise, how often do incumbent starters lose their job just because of a three game absence?). Bernard had a similar Y/C average before AND AFTER he returned from his injury in 2014. It is purely speculative to say Hill padded his stats because Bernard was "hurt" when he returned, when there is statistical evidence to suggest Bernard ran virtually identically.
* BTW, there is data about Hill's percentage in starting lineups, which is vastly more useful than anecdotal tracking which excludes 99.999+% percent of the relevant population.
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