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Gonzo would know - 92/1009/4 his first two years in the league (Ebron is 72/785/6).

That would be great if Ebron figured it out like Gonzo did after the first two seasons. Other than that, there is no comparison between the two. It would be like comparing Ted Ginn Jr. to Jerry Rice. Guys like this are going to keep dropping passes their entire career, despite their elite athletic ability. Sure Ebron could catch 10 TDs like Ginn did this season. But he'll drop 5 more.

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Gonzo would know - 92/1009/4 his first two years in the league (Ebron is 72/785/6).

That would be great if Ebron figured it out like Gonzo did after the first two seasons. Other than that, there is no comparison between the two. It would be like comparing Ted Ginn Jr. to Jerry Rice. Guys like this are going to keep dropping passes their entire career, despite their elite athletic ability. Sure Ebron could catch 10 TDs like Ginn did this season. But he'll drop 5 more.

But he would still have 10 TDs.

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Gonzo would know - 92/1009/4 his first two years in the league (Ebron is 72/785/6).

That would be great if Ebron figured it out like Gonzo did after the first two seasons. Other than that, there is no comparison between the two. It would be like comparing Ted Ginn Jr. to Jerry Rice. Guys like this are going to keep dropping passes their entire career, despite their elite athletic ability. Sure Ebron could catch 10 TDs like Ginn did this season. But he'll drop 5 more.

But he would still have 10 TDs.

He is a bust and holds no value compared to the elites like Richard Rodgers, Vernon Davis, Rivera, Rudolph, and Cook.

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Season 3 for a TE is usually where they emerge in terms of their role as a receiver. Sometimes it isn't until their 4th or 5th seasons.

I think there are good reasons to expect Ebron to get more targets in 2016. Such as Calvin Johnson retiring. I thought they were having Calvin Johnson run too many routes over the middle. That should be Ebron's job now.

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1 hour ago, Biabreakable said:

Season 3 for a TE is usually where they emerge in terms of their role as a receiver. Sometimes it isn't until their 4th or 5th seasons.

I think there are good reasons to expect Ebron to get more targets in 2016. Such as Calvin Johnson retiring. I thought they were having Calvin Johnson run too many routes over the middle. That should be Ebron's job now.

No more excuses for Ebron. If the opportunity is there, he has to capitalize. Otherwise, all of the heat he has received is warranted. What would a successful season look like?

Edited by georg013

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I agree there should be no excuses for Ebron. I am just saying that some TE do take longer than their 3rd season to break out.

I haven't done projections for the Lions yet.

I feel pretty confident that Riddick is going to get a lot of targets again, and I think that hurts Ebron's opportunities somewhat.

Golden Tate could take a big step forward in targets, and I kind of am expecting that.

Marvin Jones like other free agent WR recently may transition well and take a lot of targets.

In 14 games last season Ebron had 70 targets 47 receptions 537 yards 11.4 ypc 5TD. This is 5 targets/game 67.1% catch rate (pretty good).Over 16 games this would be 80 targets 54 receptions 612 yards 5.7TD

As Calvin is gone I would expect some increase in his targets, even if the above 3 things I mentioned do happen. So I would say 80 targets is his floor and 120 is his ceiling. For simplicity lets say he gets 100 targets in 2016.

100 targets 67 receptions 764 yards 7TD in 2016 

I do think there is still some upside for more, but I think the above a decent expectation for him in 2016.

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I think if he gets 100 targets and the offense can move the ball he should get lots of redzone looks, I expect double digits. 60/700/10 would be a good season IMO, 45/550/5 would be a disappointment. 

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Thanks to both posters. I am curious to know where the Ebron detractors/supporters fall on this. What will it take before you are willing to admit:

his numbers indicate he is or isn't a bust. 

Obviously, guys like Milkman will find a way to label him a bust regardless. But objectively speaking, is there an agreed upon level of production that can be decided prior to the season? Or, will it be pushed just out of / into reach to fit our own personal narratives? I am a fan of Ebron but wouldn't hesitate to acknowledge he is a bust if he falls on his face this season. I am not so attached to my players that I become delusional unless that player is Trent Richardson. Lol. But even now I have come to terms with TRich's shortcomings.

Edited by georg013

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I think Ebron started turning a corner in the last 6 games last year. The numbers don't really show much, but if you watched the games I feel it shows up. He seemed to understand where he was supposed to be, caught some clutch balls, and had some trust developing. Another point no one seems to mention is how bad Lombardi screwed that offense up. You can make the arguement that he wasted the last 2 years of one of the goat.

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14 hours ago, Faust said:

If as that article states, he's going around TE22, that's big time value imo.  Otoh, there's basically 20 players in the third tier of TEs (after Gronk then Olsen/reed/walker/kelce), so he possibly could fall that far.  

Pretty sure I'll be waiting on the position in later drafts. 

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The redraft ADP I was looking at yesterday was showing Ebron as pick 112 on MFL.

In other lists he was going after pick 120.

Seems undervalued.

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It weird he is being undervalued. It's pretty common knowledge that TEs take a couple years to develop. He's one of the highest drafted TEs in recent history, has tons of athleticism and is on a pass heavy offense that just their top receiving threat. It seems like the type of player that normally would be over drafted.

Edited by Ilov80s

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1 - Still just 23, he bumped his rookie production from 25-248-1 to 47-537-5.

2 - Even with the addition of Marvin Jones, gaping hole with the retirement of Calvin Johnson.

3 - Stafford hadn't really built on his 5,000 yard, 40 TD season in 2011, UNTIL the second half of last year with replacement/new OC Jim Bob Cooter. After a 1-7 start, DET finished 6-2, including a scorching 19/2 TD/INT ratio.  

4 - His near 1,000 yards receiving for North Carolina in 2013 broke the ACC conference season receiving record for a TE set by Vernon Davis at Maryland (as noted, Ebron has elite, super blue chip pedigree for his position, the first top 10 overall TE since Davis in nearly a decade - '06).

5 - Not sure, but the collegiate career 16+ yard reception averages by Davis and Ebron may the highest ever for first round TEs?    

NC highlights

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oXlNUtcyJoU

'15 DET highlights

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zqLPxFUYjBI

* Ebron isn't the athletic freak Davis is (arguably the most impressive in league history purely based on athleticism, though other Hall of Fame/caliber TEs have won in different ways, such as Ditka, Winslow, Newsome, Gonzalez, Gronk). Though Davis didn't break out until year four:

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/D/DaviVe00.htm

'06) 10 G - 20/265/3

'07) 14 G - 52/509/4

'08) 16 G - 31/358/2

'09) 16 G - 78/965/13

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11 hours ago, Ilov80s said:

It weird he is being undervalued. It's pretty common knowledge that TEs take a couple years to develop. He's one of the highest drafted TEs in recent history, has tons of athleticism and is on a pass heavy offense that just their top receiving threat. It seems like the type of player that normally would be over drafted.

The only sense I can make of this is that people are expecting Marvin Jones to pick up most of Calvin Johnson's targets and that Ebron won't make any progress going into his 3rd season.

I disagree with this, but that seems to be what the consensus of experts think. This is apparent because their rankings are lower (after pick 120) than where FF players are actually drafting him (pick 112). 

I figure Ebron starts being fairly priced at around pick 80 and becomes a value after pick 90.

In 14 games Ebron had 70 targets last season which is  5 targrts per game. Tim Wright had 5 and 6 targets in games 5 and 6 when Ebron was out. That is 81 targets going to the move TE.

I consider 80 targets to be Ebrons floor in 2016.

I see Ebron getting 80-100-120 targets in 2016 and that volume will certainly have him in the top 12 of TE and most likely the top half of them. He will compete with the top TE in 2016.

 

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Ebron has a rep for poor hands. Some WR/TEs just have cinder blocks/frying pans surgically attached to their wrists, NYG RB Andre Williams would be a RB example (Ebron makes spectacular one-handed catches at times, so his drops appear to be more of the concentration lapse variety - a drop is a drop, but this type may be more amenable to improvement if concentration does?). In other cases, there may be variance over time, where they aren't bad for their entire career, but maybe bad in the beginning, middle, end of their career (or even interspersed). If at the beginning, that could increase the chance of a lag, where consensus recognition trails behind actual improvement.

In 2015 (referring to below chart)

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/drops/2015/

Ebron was one of 14 WR/TEs with 5 drops, including OBJ, Dez Bryant, Allen Robinson, Michael Floyd and Jarvis Landry (20 had 6 or more - Julio Jones, Tyler Eifert and Randall Cobb had 6, Julius Thomas had 7, Michael Crabtree had 8, Demaryius Thomas and Martavis Bryant had 9, Brandon Marshall and Amari Cooper had 10 and Mike Evans 11). The list is sequenced by drops. The last column shows drop PERCENTAGE. Ebron's was 7.1%. Notable WR/TEs that were worse included Evans (7.4%), Cooper (7.7%), fellow TEs Eifert (8.1%) and Thomas (8.8%), as well as Bryant (9.8%).  

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1 hour ago, Bob Magaw said:

Ebron has a rep for poor hands. Some WR/TEs just have cinder blocks/frying pans surgically attached to their wrists, NYG RB Andre Williams would be a RB example (Ebron makes spectacular one-handed catches at times, so his drops appear to be more of the concentration lapse variety - a drop is a drop, but this type may be more amenable to improvement if concentration does?). In other cases, there may be variance over time, where they aren't bad for their entire career, but maybe bad in the beginning, middle, end of their career (or even interspersed). If at the beginning, that could increase the chance of a lag, where consensus recognition trails behind actual improvement.

In 2015 (referring to below chart)

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/drops/2015/

Ebron was one of 14 WR/TEs with 5 drops, including OBJ, Dez Bryant, Allen Robinson, Michael Floyd and Jarvis Landry (20 had 6 or more - Julio Jones, Tyler Eifert and Randall Cobb had 6, Julius Thomas had 7, Michael Crabtree had 8, Demaryius Thomas and Martavis Bryant had 9, Brandon Marshall and Amari Cooper had 10 and Mike Evans 11). The list is sequenced by drops. The last column shows drop PERCENTAGE. Ebron's was 7.1%. Notable WR/TEs that were worse included Evans (7.4%), Cooper (7.4%), fellow TEs Eifert (8.1%) and Thomas (8.8%), as well as Bryant (9.8%).  

Can you please stop posting stats like this? It is getting in the way of my "Ebron Sucks" narrative. Thanks in advance.

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On ‎7‎/‎10‎/‎2016 at 2:27 PM, Ilov80s said:

It weird he is being undervalued. It's pretty common knowledge that TEs take a couple years to develop. He's one of the highest drafted TEs in recent history, has tons of athleticism and is on a pass heavy offense that just their top receiving threat. It seems like the type of player that normally would be over drafted.

:yes:  the last TE I remember liking as much before they played was Greg Olsen.  If you look back at Olsen's career, he started out pretty much the same way; it took Olsen three years to lock up the starting gig (he had Desmond Clark in front of him).  Olsen began to break out in his 3rd year but wasn't a top TE until he left for Carolina and the offense was better tailored to his strengths.  I hope EE doesn't need to move on to make his mark, Calvin retiring might be the spark needed. 

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Quote

The Lions' official website expects Eric Ebron to "see a huge uptick in the number of balls thrown his way this year."

It's noteworthy as longtime in-house reporter Tim Twentyman is still saying so following the addition of Anquan Boldin. Ebron was targeted a modest 69 times last season. He needs a jump into the 90-100 range to be a legitimate TE1.

Source: detroitlions.com

 

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69 targets in 14 games almost 5 targets per game in Ebrons second season. In the two games Ebron missed Tim Wright had similar number of targets. It was basically 80 targets to the TE last season.

Going into his 3rd season when many TE take a step forward and the absence of Calvin Johnson, who was being targeted more frequently from the slot on per snap basis than he was on the outside, tells me there are a lot more targets available.

Ebron getting to 100 targets seems pretty much a given as long as he is healthy. There is upside there for more, but perhaps Boldin does get some of these looks Calvin was getting from the slot as well.

 

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3 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

69 targets in 14 games almost 5 targets per game in Ebrons second season. In the two games Ebron missed Tim Wright had similar number of targets. It was basically 80 targets to the TE last season.

Going into his 3rd season when many TE take a step forward and the absence of Calvin Johnson, who was being targeted more frequently from the slot on per snap basis than he was on the outside, tells me there are a lot more targets available.

Ebron getting to 100 targets seems pretty much a given as long as he is healthy. There is upside there for more, but perhaps Boldin does get some of these looks Calvin was getting from the slot as well.

 

EE will still get his looks but I'll expect greater inconsistency game to game with five good, but no real great receiving options.  None of these guys, including tate, will take away from Ebron IF he starts performing to his potential.

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Yeah FUBAR the thing about the slot targets is the Lions will have Ebron, Tate, Riddick, Boldin TJ Jones and maybe Marvin Jones as well all taking turns there depending on how the defenses matches up against them during games and from game to game.

As a Viking fan I feel sorry for Munnerlin 

As usual the Lions scare the crap out of me. They are always a better team than their record might indicate.

Edited by Biabreakable

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9 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

Yeah FUBAR the thing about the slot targets is the Lions will have Ebron, Tate, Riddick, Boldin TJ Jones and maybe Marvin Jones as well all taking turns there depending on how the defenses matches up against them during games and from game to game.

As a Viking fan I feel sorry for Munnerlin 

As usual the Lions scare the crap out of me. They are always a better team than their record might indicate.

At the same time, they're probably a worse team than they appear on paper. 

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4 minutes ago, FUBAR said:

At the same time, they're probably a worse team than they appear on paper. 

I hope so. They always seem to find a way to lose somehow in the past. I hope that continues.

Your point is well taken though as far as inconsistency week to week. They are taking a Voltron approach to replacing Calvin.

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46 minutes ago, FUBAR said:

At the same time, they're probably a worse team than they appear on paper. 

They never seem to be able to get the whole team on the same page. One year the offense is good and the defense is bad. The next the defense is great and the offense struggles. They kill me. 

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1 hour ago, FUBAR said:

EE will still get his looks but I'll expect greater inconsistency game to game with five good, but no real great receiving options.  None of these guys, including tate, will take away from Ebron IF he starts performing to his potential.

That is the TE position outside of 1-3 players each year. 

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16 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

That is the TE position outside of 1-3 players each year. 

True.  I was (perhaps wrongly) thinking he'd be among the few with more frequent quality games.  Not Gronk or Olsen but "start with (some) confidence" level. 

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Looking at Ebrons game logs. It is fairly consistent. There are some 2 and 3 target games in there along with some games where he is getting 7 targets or more.

I think there should be fewer low target games as targets increase by a bit over 1 per game more than last season.

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25 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

Looking at Ebrons game logs. It is fairly consistent. There are some 2 and 3 target games in there along with some games where he is getting 7 targets or more.

I think there should be fewer low target games as targets increase by a bit over 1 per game more than last season.

I think he sees something close to 95 targets, catches 63 balls for 760 yards and 7 TDs. That makes him a  bottom half TE1 and a weekly starter. Not a guy thats going to be a difference maker on your team, but at his ADP, it's a nice play. A guy that can deliver Travis Kelce like numbers 5-7 rounds later. 

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Solid TE2, but won't be drafted by me as a TE1...I need a higher ceiling.

Edited by TripItUp

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One thing I think is worth talking about is that Detroit looks like they will be starting a rookie at left tackle and they will likely want to give him some help. I presume that will be Pettigrew as Ebron isn't really that good of a blocker, but this situation could have the TE chipping and helping out quite a bit, which could hurt target opportunities.

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13 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

Solid TE2, but won't be drafted by me as a TE1...I need a higher ceiling.

Who do you see as late TEs with higher ceilings? I usually find myself going Ebron or Allen late. Mixed on the result. 

Edited by Ilov80s

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1 hour ago, Ilov80s said:

Who do you see as late TEs with higher ceilings? I usually find myself going Ebron or Allen late. Mixed on the result. 

TEs with an ADP higher than #10 that I have higher ceilings for include:  Sefarian Jenkins, Dwayne Allen, Cameron, Thomas

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2 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

One thing I think is worth talking about is that Detroit looks like they will be starting a rookie at left tackle and they will likely want to give him some help. I presume that will be Pettigrew as Ebron isn't really that good of a blocker, but this situation could have the TE chipping and helping out quite a bit, which could hurt target opportunities.

Yes Pettigrew is a much better blocker and on a team with OL problems this is a solid point.

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5 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

TEs with an ADP higher than #10 that I have higher ceilings for include:  Sefarian Jenkins, Dwayne Allen, Cameron, Thomas

I like Vance McDonald for some reason as well. 

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5 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

TEs with an ADP higher than #10 that I have higher ceilings for include:  Sefarian Jenkins, Dwayne Allen, Cameron, Thomas

I'd add Graham and Bennett if we're just talking ceiling.  But I have EE in the 3rd tier along with ASJ, Thomas, Green and Fleener. 

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Just now, Ilov80s said:

I like Vance McDonald for some reason as well. 

I like his value this year, but don't have an enormous ceiling for him...that offense could struggle.

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EE loves himself some Pokémon. Will lead to increased number of catches IMO.

:grad:

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They're saying achilles. Next man up. Get your ASJ shares if you can.

Edited by georg013

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