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WR Mike Evans, TB (1 Viewer)

spider321 said:
Wait.  People are down on the guy who made Johnny Manziel look good? ?
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Not down at all. I think Evans is great. I liked him more as the top WR of the class before the draft even. He's great, but for redraft, I see him getting less targets this season and disappointing some owners that are expecting Julio Jones, Odell Beckham type numbers, I see him more in the Dez range. We are obviously splitting hairs here when we try to differentiate between middle 1st and early 2nd. 

 
If the purpose of this thread is to talk down Evans' value, it's not working. 

In every draft I've been in so far, if you weren't in the top 6 , you didn't get him.

 
WRs I'd take, in redraft (.5 ppr), over Evans:

Brown, Jones, Beckham...Green is close, but I'm a Green homer, so probably not on other people's list.

RBs I'd take over him:

DJ, Bell, Elliot...possibly McCoy

Evans is still a top 8 pick for me.

For those downgrading him this year, who else would you take over him?

 
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Moonshine said:
WRs I'd take, in redraft (.5 ppr), over Evans:

Brown, Jones, Beckham...Green is close, but I'm a Green homer, so probably not on other people's list.

RBs I'd take over him:

DJ, Bell, Elliot...possibly McCoy

Evans is still a top 8 pick for me.

For those downgrading him this year, who else would you take over him?
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WRs: AB, Julio, OBJ, AJG, Jordy  RBs: DJ, Bell, Zeke, McCoy, Murray. 

 
kutta said:
The #2 PPR WR last year. While coming off an ACL. I think that's the Jordy he's talking about.
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Thats the guy. The only advantage Evans has on Jordy is age. 

Lets look at the last 3 years they have played (14-16 for Evans, 13-14-16 for Jordy). I will bold the Mike Evans seasons. 

Receptions: 98,97,96, 85, 76, 86

Yards:  1519, 1321, 1314, 1257, 1208, 1051

TDs: 14,13 ,12,12 8, 3

I get Evans is younger and could get even better or that Jordy could fall apart. However, just looking at the fantasy performance that we have data for, Jordy is the more proven performer at every level of stats that matter for fantasy. Jordy has been more consistent, had a higher ceiling and a safer floor. 

 
Soulfly3 said:
Jordy? Jordy Nelson?
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How is that controversial or shocking. Jordy (slightly) outscored him last season and is in the best offense in the league. It's not a knock to put Jordy ahead in redraft - dynasty of course age comes into play.

 
Ilov80s said:
Ok, drafted too early. 
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well unfortunately there are very few certain indicators to look at and deduce this prior to the season starting

a couple would be;

off season, or camp injury - negative so far

negative situation change - negative so far

season to season trend downward (decline in skill) - negative so far

So, like I said, I don't think there is any reason to believe he can be over drafted, or drafted too early. You may prefer someone to him in the top 5-8 ish spots, which is fine. 1st round picks are cornerstones and outside of injury, any of the high floor options are likely not going to be bad or wrong. So then you start to split hairs to make decisions. For me Evans is easily my dynasty WR1. He is young. Has produced. Is the alpha target on a young offense with a young and improving QB. His ceiling is sky high and his future is bright.

You can make arguments for Julio, AB, OBJ being ahead of him. For a season long league, I wouldn't debate it much. In a startup dynasty league, their skill sets aren't better enough to look past their future problems with age, qb situation or both.

 
Pwingles said:
well unfortunately there are very few certain indicators to look at and deduce this prior to the season starting

a couple would be;

off season, or camp injury - negative so far

negative situation change - negative so far

season to season trend downward (decline in skill) - negative so far

So, like I said, I don't think there is any reason to believe he can be over drafted, or drafted too early. You may prefer someone to him in the top 5-8 ish spots, which is fine. 1st round picks are cornerstones and outside of injury, any of the high floor options are likely not going to be bad or wrong. So then you start to split hairs to make decisions. For me Evans is easily my dynasty WR1. He is young. Has produced. Is the alpha target on a young offense with a young and improving QB. His ceiling is sky high and his future is bright.

You can make arguments for Julio, AB, OBJ being ahead of him. For a season long league, I wouldn't debate it much. In a startup dynasty league, their skill sets aren't better enough to look past their future problems with age, qb situation or both.
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Of course we are splitting hairs. I really like Evans and would love to have him on my team. You can't really discuss 1st round picks without splitting hairs. 

 
Soulfly3 said:
Evans is my 1a, OBJ my 1b.

Id keep Evans based on size and QB as the difference makers.
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2017 will be Eli's and Winston's age-36 and age-23 seasons respectively. For that reason alone, I think it's more a clear-cut #1 and #2 than 1a and 1b in dynasty.

In redraft, first-rounders are more about floor than ceiling. And who's got a higher floor than Evans this season? The top 3 RBs, Brown, maybe Jordy, and that's about it. Given their relative combinations of age, talent, and risk, Evans is in a bucket right alongside Julio, Nelson, and Green and I wouldn't kill anyone for ranking them in any order they want.

 
One of the greatest WR's in the game..  But,

Heres a piece that attempts to break down some relevant points: https://www.pewterreport.com/cover-3-playing-the-fade-identifying-winstons-deep-accuracy-issues/

Through 16 weeks last season, in a clean pocket, on passes of more than 21 yards, Winston was 17-for-39 with 10 touchdowns and five interceptions. In the intermediate (passes of 11-20 yards), with a clean pocket, he was 88-for-130 with just two touchdowns to six interceptions. Much higher accuracy, but more turnovers – a bit of an enigma.

But, over the next few years, it seems like he’ll have all the offensive weapons he could want on an offense that wants to see him push the ball down the field. He’ll go for it whether he improves or not, but years three and four are typically the years we see drastic improvement, if there is any to be had, in young quarterbacks.

 
Dismattle said:
One of the greatest WR's in the game..  But,

Heres a piece that attempts to break down some relevant points: https://www.pewterreport.com/cover-3-playing-the-fade-identifying-winstons-deep-accuracy-issues/

Through 16 weeks last season, in a clean pocket, on passes of more than 21 yards, Winston was 17-for-39 with 10 touchdowns and five interceptions. In the intermediate (passes of 11-20 yards), with a clean pocket, he was 88-for-130 with just two touchdowns to six interceptions. Much higher accuracy, but more turnovers – a bit of an enigma.

But, over the next few years, it seems like he’ll have all the offensive weapons he could want on an offense that wants to see him push the ball down the field. He’ll go for it whether he improves or not, but years three and four are typically the years we see drastic improvement, if there is any to be had, in young quarterbacks.
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What are you trying to say here?

 
Dismattle said:
One of the greatest WR's in the game..  But,

Heres a piece that attempts to break down some relevant points: https://www.pewterreport.com/cover-3-playing-the-fade-identifying-winstons-deep-accuracy-issues/

Through 16 weeks last season, in a clean pocket, on passes of more than 21 yards, Winston was 17-for-39 with 10 touchdowns and five interceptions. In the intermediate (passes of 11-20 yards), with a clean pocket, he was 88-for-130 with just two touchdowns to six interceptions. Much higher accuracy, but more turnovers – a bit of an enigma.

But, over the next few years, it seems like he’ll have all the offensive weapons he could want on an offense that wants to see him push the ball down the field. He’ll go for it whether he improves or not, but years three and four are typically the years we see drastic improvement, if there is any to be had, in young quarterbacks.
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If anything the only thing this points to is Jameis' decision making skills still evolving, and not so much anything to do with Evans. Not sure why this excerpt is relevant here

 
Pwingles said:
If anything the only thing this points to is Jameis' decision making skills still evolving, and not so much anything to do with Evans. Not sure why this excerpt is relevant here
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The guy who throws the ball (Winston) may not be all that hot   https://youtu.be/pt8VYOfr8To   Listen I'm not so much into candy coating..  I also try to be nice..   But some may say Mr Winston is a hot mess at throwing the deep 6 ball.  Who would I be too argue!

Cant find that informative of value for a Top 5 WR?  Woah, Okay   Luckily its just (poor) early speculation! 

The main reason I posted about the QB ?  TB may lack all 3 of key ingredients for a Great WR  (ex.  Cowboys OLine  Steelers Bell  Patriots TB12) 

 
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Another interesting Mike Evans stat: He was 6th in the NFL in receptions but was 141st in yards after catch. I can't even explain how that is possible. Comes out  YAC average of 1.8. Michael Floyd was the only NFL player with a worse average. Even guys like Jesse James and Anquan Boldin were higher.

 
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Ilov80s said:
Another interesting Mike Evans stat: He was 6th in the NFL in receptions but was 141st in yards after catch. I can't even explain how that is possible. Comes out  YAC average of 1.8. Michael Floyd was the only NFL player with a worse average. Even guys like Jesse James and Anquan Boldin were higher.
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That's quite bizarre. I can only assume it means he caught a lot of passes in the flat and was being tackled near the line a lot? Very very weird stat.

 
LionOfGosforth said:
That's quite bizarre. I can only assume it means he caught a lot of passes in the flat and was being tackled near the line a lot? Very very weird stat.
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Actually it's oddly the opposite. Evans led the league in air yards (how far down field he was when he caught the pass). He was thrown a lot of deep passes but basically caught the ball and fell down.

 
Ilov80s said:
Actually it's oddly the opposite. Evans led the league in air yards (how far down field he was when he caught the pass). He was thrown a lot of deep passes but basically caught the ball and fell down.
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Strange stuff. I do oddly recall him bringing a deep pass down week 1 and falling over but it was in the end zone for a td vs Atlanta  :D

I wonder if he had similar YAC stats in previous years or if it was just this past year?

 
As someone who saw most of his receptions last year, looks about right.  He doesn't beat defenders with his speed, but rather his size.  Similar to Herman Moore. 

 
TripItUp said:
As someone who saw most of his receptions last year, looks about right.  He doesn't beat defenders with his speed, but rather his size.  Similar to Herman Moore. 
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It's just seems almost impossible to have so many catches but so few yards after the catch. And I still will never understand his 2015 TD total.

 
Dismattle said:
The guy who throws the ball (Winston) may not be all that hot   https://youtu.be/pt8VYOfr8To   Listen I'm not so much into candy coating..  I also try to be nice..   But some may say Mr Winston is a hot mess at throwing the deep 6 ball.  Who would I be too argue!

Cant find that informative of value for a Top 5 WR?  Woah, Okay   Luckily its just (poor) early speculation! 

The main reason I posted about the QB ?  TB may lack all 3 of key ingredients for a Great WR  (ex.  Cowboys OLine  Steelers Bell  Patriots TB12) 
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for fantasy purposes, I think his (Evans)  production since he has been in the league would be pretty compelling evidence to the contrary at this point

 
Ilov80s said:
Another interesting Mike Evans stat: He was 6th in the NFL in receptions but was 141st in yards after catch. I can't even explain how that is possible. Comes out  YAC average of 1.8. Michael Floyd was the only NFL player with a worse average. Even guys like Jesse James and Anquan Boldin were higher.
Click to expand...


LionOfGosforth said:
That's quite bizarre. I can only assume it means he caught a lot of passes in the flat and was being tackled near the line a lot? Very very weird stat.
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Anyone know the ADoT for this last season? Im curious how many balls were contested right at or near the catch and lead to a reception and yards, but an almost instant tackle. That is an odd stat for sure

*Edit, found ADoT data

http://intentionalrounding.com/when-does-average-depth-of-target-stabilize-for-wide-receivers/

Interesting article. Im not sure im digesting this correctly yet, but at a glance, it would suggest that a lot of his targets are down field (obv). His lack of YAC to me would suggest that he is making these catches but not outrunning anyone after. Or maybe being tackled in the process pretty often. IDK.

 
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Ilov80s said:
Actually it's oddly the opposite. Evans led the league in air yards (how far down field he was when he caught the pass). He was thrown a lot of deep passes but basically caught the ball and fell down.
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He really needs to improve on that stat but his strongest attribute is catching the jump ball.  He doesn't separate on the field, he just isn't outjumped by many. 

 
-OZ- said:
He really needs to improve on that stat but his strongest attribute is catching the jump ball.  He doesn't separate on the field, he just isn't outjumped by many. 
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Absolutely he if a monster at pulling in the those tough catches. 

 
Pwingles said:
for fantasy purposes, I think his (Evans)  production since he has been in the league would be pretty compelling evidence to the contrary at this point
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What all are you trying to say exactly   Winston is solid NFL material?   and/or  It doesn't matter whose Quarterback ?  

(imho) Evans is "Johnny Football", but I realize this is a team sport.. 

Its still kinda fresh in my mind, what happened to Josh Freeman.  Think a lot were shocked by their "Nuc"'s performance.   All I'm saying (again) is I don't believe theres much elite (proven) talent surrounding Evans.  I might reread the earlier posts, because it seems like your fishing w/ short quick bait.

 
Dismattle said:
What all are you trying to say exactly   Winston is solid NFL material?   and/or  It doesn't matter whose Quarterback ?  

(imho) Evans is "Johnny Football", but I realize this is a team sport.. 

Its still kinda fresh in my mind, what happened to Josh Freeman.  Think a lot were shocked by their "Nuc"'s performance.   All I'm saying (again) is I don't believe theres much elite (proven) talent surrounding Evans.  I might reread the earlier posts, because it seems like your fishing w/ short quick bait.
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Im not sure what youre missing with my posts but ill reiterate some of my opinions;

evans is an elite talent

although i believe winston is an ascending talent (nothing like freeman) i also saw evans produce with glennon, and manziel. So ya, id say he is gonna be a stud in almost any situation regardless of qb

you keep bringing up non-evans things in this thread as if youre trying to force some evidence on us that he is or will be bad, if he was going to be bad for any of the reasons you mentioned, it wouldve happened already. It hasnt

 
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Pwingles said:
Anyone know the ADoT for this last season? Im curious how many balls were contested right at or near the catch and lead to a reception and yards, but an almost instant tackle. That is an odd stat for sure

*Edit, found ADoT data

http://intentionalrounding.com/when-does-average-depth-of-target-stabilize-for-wide-receivers/

Interesting article. Im not sure im digesting this correctly yet, but at a glance, it would suggest that a lot of his targets are down field (obv). His lack of YAC to me would suggest that he is making these catches but not outrunning anyone after. Or maybe being tackled in the process pretty often. IDK.
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He was double and triple teamed a lot was he not? Jumping over everyone and getting tackled straight away would go hand in hand with these stats

 
Evans has had low YAC every season, with an average of 2.50 yards after the catch per reception for his career.

Looking at a 2016 highlight video, there are a lot of plays where he doesn't have much chance at YAC (either because he caught it in/near the end zone, or because defenders were there to take him down, or because it was a diving catch). But there were also some plays where it seems like he had a chance at more YAC and didn't take advantage. At 0:27 and 0:48 he goes out of bounds after making the catch in situations where some receivers might have been able to continue down the sidelines. At 1:38 and 3:13 he goes to the ground after making the catch when it seems like he had a chance to stay on his feet (though the 1:38 play happened in the end zone). It seems like a receiver who was trying hard to get YAC, and had good enough balance / body control / situational awareness, could have stayed up and kept going on those plays and the out-of-bounds ones. At 1:53 and 3:00 he caught the ball with a defender nearby and it looked like he maybe had a chance to get by the first defender but he didn't manage to do so. And there aren't any plays in this highlight video where he did much after the catch.

 
Bickering about YAC yards. Dude's in his 3rd season putting up good stats, maybe he doesn't need YAC yards.

If a defender draped on his back doesn't deter him from catching the ball, seperation is just a luxury.

 
Dismattle said:
What all are you trying to say exactly   Winston is solid NFL material?   and/or  It doesn't matter whose Quarterback ?  

(imho) Evans is "Johnny Football", but I realize this is a team sport.. 

Its still kinda fresh in my mind, what happened to Josh Freeman.  Think a lot were shocked by their "Nuc"'s performance.   All I'm saying (again) is I don't believe theres much elite (proven) talent surrounding Evans.  I might reread the earlier posts, because it seems like your fishing w/ short quick bait.
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:2cents:

Evans is elite.  Winston should become elite. Djax is a good #2, Howard should be a very good all around TE. The talent around him isn't elite yet but it should get there in the next couple years. But I don't know about the oline.

 
-OZ- said:
:2cents:

Evans is elite.  Winston should become elite. Djax is a good #2, Howard should be a very good all around TE. The talent around him isn't elite yet but it should get there in the next couple years. But I don't know about the oline.
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Have ya read any expert takes on the "run" game?   It isn't just no QB, is what I'm attempting to explain.  (QB is just the most obvious)

 
-OZ- said:
:2cents:

Evans is elite.  Winston should become elite. Djax is a good #2, Howard should be a very good all around TE. The talent around him isn't elite yet but it should get there in the next couple years. But I don't know about the oline.
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We are sure Winston is going to be elite?

 
Pwingles said:
Im not sure what youre missing with my posts but ill reiterate some of my opinions;

evans is an elite talent

although i believe winston is an ascending talent (nothing like freeman) i also saw evans produce with glennon, and manziel. So ya, id say he is gonna be a stud in almost any situation regardless of qb

you keep bringing up non-evans things in this thread as if youre trying to force some evidence on us that he is or will be bad, if he was going to be bad for any of the reasons you mentioned, it wouldve happened already. It hasn't
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I'm not so sure using Glennon is that good an analogy..  Glennon is a veteran QB, who has a chance to start in Chicago..  matter of fact,, One could start to see signs of being dysfunctional in TB.. 

New head coach Lovie Smith quickly announced that newly signed journeyman Josh McCown would be the starting quarterback for the upcoming 2014 season, leaving Glennon's future in Tampa Bay in question. On May 10, Smith stated while McCown would be the starter, Glennon was the Bucs' "quarterback of the future". That same day, Rick Stroud of the Tampa Bay Times reported that the Bucs turned down at least six trade offers for Glennon during the 2014 NFL Draft.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Glennon

I'm not too sure why ya mention college QB's.  Think its entirely different game, played at a less explosive state.  I was a fan of Maziel too, ever since I heard him called gunslinger.

Hope I havnt changed your view much, it wasn't my intention.  Sadly it hasn't changed my view, reading your response.  I believe TB is holding back the reins on Evans.  Hope too see him sign w/ the Redskins sooner than later.

 
ZWK said:
Evans has had low YAC every season, with an average of 2.50 yards after the catch per reception for his career.

Looking at a 2016 highlight video, there are a lot of plays where he doesn't have much chance at YAC (either because he caught it in/near the end zone, or because defenders were there to take him down, or because it was a diving catch). But there were also some plays where it seems like he had a chance at more YAC and didn't take advantage. At 0:27 and 0:48 he goes out of bounds after making the catch in situations where some receivers might have been able to continue down the sidelines. At 1:38 and 3:13 he goes to the ground after making the catch when it seems like he had a chance to stay on his feet (though the 1:38 play happened in the end zone). It seems like a receiver who was trying hard to get YAC, and had good enough balance / body control / situational awareness, could have stayed up and kept going on those plays and the out-of-bounds ones. At 1:53 and 3:00 he caught the ball with a defender nearby and it looked like he maybe had a chance to get by the first defender but he didn't manage to do so. And there aren't any plays in this highlight video where he did much after the catch.
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I forgot about that 1 hander vs Atlanta. Gold!

 
-OZ- said:
:2cents:

Evans is elite.  Winston should become elite. Djax is a good #2, Howard should be a very good all around TE. The talent around him isn't elite yet but it should get there in the next couple years. But I don't know about the oline.
Click to expand...


Ilov80s said:
We are sure Winston is going to be elite?
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No, that's why I used "should" and not "definitely will".

Dismattle said:
Have ya read any expert takes on the "run" game?   It isn't just no QB, is what I'm attempting to explain.  (QB is just the most obvious)
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The backs should be solid but not great.  The o line, yeah that needs work. 

 
-OZ- said:
No, that's why I used "should" and not "definitely will".
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I wasn't trying to be technical, just wondering if Winston is going to be elite. He has some areas he needs to work on: completion % (23rd) and Int % (27th) especially. 

I realize he is still young and that outside of Mike Evans, Winston didn't have much to work with last year. I think Winston might be more of a Palmer/Stafford- which for MIke Evans is just fine. 

 
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