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Derek Carr...Lost in the shuffle? Big 4?

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Is Derek Carr being underrated as a prospect? Should we consider it the big 4 at QB? Is he better then many give him credit for?

I mean he did just throw for 50 tds and 5000 yards in 13 games this year as a senior. That has to count for something.

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Reality is, he is getting docked for being the little brother of David. Whether a team wants to take advantage of that fact or not, will be revealed shortly...I feel as though he is moving up the boards. Just a month ago it was a forgone conclusion he would be no higher than a second rounder...

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Carr's numbers here don't look so good in comparison to the other 3, especially his accuracy on deep balls & his performance under pressure.

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Reality is, he is getting docked for being the little brother of David. Whether a team wants to take advantage of that fact or not, will be revealed shortly...I feel as though he is moving up the boards. Just a month ago it was a forgone conclusion he would be no higher than a second rounder...

I have a hard time believing that he's being docked for being David's brother.

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:blackdot: I am sitting at the 6 spot in my 2QB league (10 teams). Carr is definitely on my radar. Say he's taken in the second, situation on a team like that might even be better. His stock is going to rise I think. I see him as a better prospect than Foles or Osweiler in recent years.

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http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2009298-why-are-experts-so-hot-or-cold-on-derek-carr#articles/2009298-why-are-experts-so-hot-or-cold-on-derek-carr

There are tons of scouting reports out on Carr. I've watched plenty of film and I have to agree that his throwing mechanics need to be improved. His reads were often quick and not complex as the NFL type reads. He's got a helluva an arm though. He needs to go to the right situation and be coached up, but his arm talent is the best of the "big 4" without a doubt. Anyone who takes him needs to be willing to wait on him for a season or two to work through his mechanics issues and learning an NFL playbook. There's a lot of hype building for Carr, but I think it would be a mistake to take him in the first round. Bridgewater has a much higher floor and ceiling imo. That arm is going to get him overdrafted I bet. I won't be mad if the Raiders take him in round 2, but all the mocks that have him as a mid to late round first round pick scare me.

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http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2009298-why-are-experts-so-hot-or-cold-on-derek-carr#articles/2009298-why-are-experts-so-hot-or-cold-on-derek-carr

There are tons of scouting reports out on Carr. I've watched plenty of film and I have to agree that his throwing mechanics need to be improved. His reads were often quick and not complex as the NFL type reads. He's got a helluva an arm though. He needs to go to the right situation and be coached up, but his arm talent is the best of the "big 4" without a doubt. Anyone who takes him needs to be willing to wait on him for a season or two to work through his mechanics issues and learning an NFL playbook. There's a lot of hype building for Carr, but I think it would be a mistake to take him in the first round. Bridgewater has a much higher floor and ceiling imo. That arm is going to get him overdrafted I bet. I won't be mad if the Raiders take him in round 2, but all the mocks that have him as a mid to late round first round pick scare me.

I agree with most of what you said, but I think a lot of what you said makes more of a case for him being a first rounder and not a second rounder.

1st round selections get 5 year deals, 2nd rounders get 4 year deals. If you take a QB in the second and plan to sit him for at least 2 years then you only get 2 years to evaluate and 2 years worth of production on that rookie deal. If you take the same player in the late first (which may only be 5-10 picks earlier) you can feel much more comfortable sitting the player 2 years. I feel the second rounder could be forced to play sooner than the late first so you can figure out what you have.

Edited by C & C

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http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2009298-why-are-experts-so-hot-or-cold-on-derek-carr#articles/2009298-why-are-experts-so-hot-or-cold-on-derek-carr

There are tons of scouting reports out on Carr. I've watched plenty of film and I have to agree that his throwing mechanics need to be improved. His reads were often quick and not complex as the NFL type reads. He's got a helluva an arm though. He needs to go to the right situation and be coached up, but his arm talent is the best of the "big 4" without a doubt. Anyone who takes him needs to be willing to wait on him for a season or two to work through his mechanics issues and learning an NFL playbook. There's a lot of hype building for Carr, but I think it would be a mistake to take him in the first round. Bridgewater has a much higher floor and ceiling imo. That arm is going to get him overdrafted I bet. I won't be mad if the Raiders take him in round 2, but all the mocks that have him as a mid to late round first round pick scare me.

I agree with most of what you said, but I think a lot of what you said makes more of a case for him being a first rounder and not a second rounder.

1st round selections get 5 year deals, 2nd rounders get 4 year deals. If you take a QB in the second and plan to sit him for at least 2 years then you only get 2 years to evaluate and 2 years worth of production on that rookie deal. If you take the same player in the late first (which may only be 5-10 picks earlier) you can feel much more comfortable sitting the player 2 years. I feel the second rounder could be forced to play sooner than the late first so you can figure out what you have.

Yeah, I hear your argument but the problem is most first round picks have a ton of pressure to get on the field ASAP. Whether or not it's fair, media, fanbase, pundits prematurely call young QB's scrubs before they've been given the time to learn a system. There are rare examples of first round QB's who were given time to learn like Aaron Rodgers, but many more cases of first round developmental washout QB's like Blaine Gabbert. The weight of expectations on these rookies to single handedly renovate and revamp moribund franchises is simply too much to handle. First round QB's are always going to be compared to Andrew Luck. "well he's no Luck, tsk tsk..." It's not fair or realistic, but it is what it is.

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Quite a few mocks had him going to Tampa at #7 a few months ago before we got McCown. If they love the guy, then I suppose they could still draft a QB.

Tedford has worked with him in the past & coached his bro.

Edited by Quez

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Reality is, he is getting docked for being the little brother of David. Whether a team wants to take advantage of that fact or not, will be revealed shortly...I feel as though he is moving up the boards. Just a month ago it was a forgone conclusion he would be no higher than a second rounder...

I have a hard time believing that he's being docked for being David's brother.

Why? Guys get "points" for good blood lines (Rolles, Sharper, Mathews families), why would it not go the other way...at least a little bit?

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http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2009298-why-are-experts-so-hot-or-cold-on-derek-carr#articles/2009298-why-are-experts-so-hot-or-cold-on-derek-carr

There are tons of scouting reports out on Carr. I've watched plenty of film and I have to agree that his throwing mechanics need to be improved. His reads were often quick and not complex as the NFL type reads. He's got a helluva an arm though. He needs to go to the right situation and be coached up, but his arm talent is the best of the "big 4" without a doubt. Anyone who takes him needs to be willing to wait on him for a season or two to work through his mechanics issues and learning an NFL playbook. There's a lot of hype building for Carr, but I think it would be a mistake to take him in the first round. Bridgewater has a much higher floor and ceiling imo. That arm is going to get him overdrafted I bet. I won't be mad if the Raiders take him in round 2, but all the mocks that have him as a mid to late round first round pick scare me.

Patriots targeting him wouldn't be the worst move.

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Reality is, he is getting docked for being the little brother of David. Whether a team wants to take advantage of that fact or not, will be revealed shortly...I feel as though he is moving up the boards. Just a month ago it was a forgone conclusion he would be no higher than a second rounder...

I have a hard time believing that he's being docked for being David's brother.

Why? Guys get "points" for good blood lines (Rolles, Sharper, Mathews families), why would it not go the other way...at least a little bit?

i don't think David had "bad blood lines". He was the #1 pick in the draft then proceeded to get clobbered for years behind a terrible offensive line. He underacheived for sure, but is a team really going to care what his brother did?

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Reality is, he is getting docked for being the little brother of David. Whether a team wants to take advantage of that fact or not, will be revealed shortly...I feel as though he is moving up the boards. Just a month ago it was a forgone conclusion he would be no higher than a second rounder...

I have a hard time believing that he's being docked for being David's brother.

Why? Guys get "points" for good blood lines (Rolles, Sharper, Mathews families), why would it not go the other way...at least a little bit?

I don't think so. Payton and Long kids didn't. Neither did Monk or Carter. Edited by jurb26

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http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2009298-why-are-experts-so-hot-or-cold-on-derek-carr#articles/2009298-why-are-experts-so-hot-or-cold-on-derek-carr

There are tons of scouting reports out on Carr. I've watched plenty of film and I have to agree that his throwing mechanics need to be improved. His reads were often quick and not complex as the NFL type reads. He's got a helluva an arm though. He needs to go to the right situation and be coached up, but his arm talent is the best of the "big 4" without a doubt. Anyone who takes him needs to be willing to wait on him for a season or two to work through his mechanics issues and learning an NFL playbook. There's a lot of hype building for Carr, but I think it would be a mistake to take him in the first round. Bridgewater has a much higher floor and ceiling imo. That arm is going to get him overdrafted I bet. I won't be mad if the Raiders take him in round 2, but all the mocks that have him as a mid to late round first round pick scare me.

I agree with most of what you said, but I think a lot of what you said makes more of a case for him being a first rounder and not a second rounder.

1st round selections get 5 year deals, 2nd rounders get 4 year deals. If you take a QB in the second and plan to sit him for at least 2 years then you only get 2 years to evaluate and 2 years worth of production on that rookie deal. If you take the same player in the late first (which may only be 5-10 picks earlier) you can feel much more comfortable sitting the player 2 years. I feel the second rounder could be forced to play sooner than the late first so you can figure out what you have.

Yeah, I hear your argument but the problem is most first round picks have a ton of pressure to get on the field ASAP. Whether or not it's fair, media, fanbase, pundits prematurely call young QB's scrubs before they've been given the time to learn a system. There are rare examples of first round QB's who were given time to learn like Aaron Rodgers, but many more cases of first round developmental washout QB's like Blaine Gabbert. The weight of expectations on these rookies to single handedly renovate and revamp moribund franchises is simply too much to handle. First round QB's are always going to be compared to Andrew Luck. "well he's no Luck, tsk tsk..." It's not fair or realistic, but it is what it is.

Aaron Rodgers was drafted 9 years ago now and he sat for 3 seasons before getting the FT gig. The league has changed quite a bit since then. It is next to impossible for this scenario to happen again for a 1st round selection outside of a few franchises. If the Saints, Patriots or the Broncos chose to draft a QB in the 1st , then these organisations already have the quality QB in place, the strong organisation and a head coach that won't be on the hot seat to allow this kind of freedom to develop a QB.

I think due to the recent QBs like Luck, Wilson, RQ3 etc, people lose sight of the value of a rookie, even a 1st round rookie sitting and developing holding a clipboard. That weight of expectation to turn things around immediately, our fast foot/24 hr media cycle immediate gratification ethos, the fact that drafting a QB seems to hitch a coach's job security to that wagon and failure is not an option.....it all plays a part. It shouldn't but that is not the reality. Like I said, you need the right combination in place these days to allow a head coach to sit a 1st round QB selection for any length of time.

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Rotoworld:

ESPN's Ashley Fox writes there is a "growing sentiment" that Fresno State QB Derek Carr could be the Browns pick at No. 4.

"Cleveland could decide that Carr is its guy and use the fourth overall pick on him despite owning three picks in the top 35, including No. 26 overall," Fox writes. The comment comes directly after citing a statement from ESPN's Louis Riddick, a former NFL exec, saying Carr "was very comfortable with the footwork, timing, mechanics, accuracy that he's going to need at the NFL level," which was displayed at the Senior Bowl and during his pro day.
Source: ESPN.com

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Derek Carr might be draft's best QB Pro offense experience could separate Fresno State star from draft's big three

By Ashley Fox | ESPN.com

You know the Big Three.

You've heard all about them. Quarterbacks Johnny Manziel, Blake Bortles and Teddy Bridgewater will all be high draft picks come May. All three will likely be gone by the 10th pick. If your team needs a starting quarterback, those are the players to target in this draft. Get one, and you're good.

At least that is the conventional wisdom.

But by the time the draft hype machine gives way to the actual draft in five weeks, the Big Three could actually be the Big Four: Manziel, Bortles, Bridgewater and Derek Carr. And Fresno State's Carr could bounce to or near the top of that list.

Sound crazy? It is not.

The process of evaluating quarterbacks is complicated. In most cases, it is an inexact science. Andrew Luck was a can't-miss prospect, but what about JaMarcus Russell, Vince Young, Joey Harrington, Tim Couch or Ryan Leaf? Each was a top-three draft pick who turned into a colossal bust. Or what about the quarterbacks taken in the first round in 2011: Cam Newton, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder? Only Newton has a grip on a starting job entering 2014.

It is difficult to project how a quarterback will translate at the next level. There is plenty of guesswork involved, and often, given the pressure and the stakes and the very real prospect of being wrong, emotion creeps in. Gut feeling can usurp months of player evaluations and scouting. One quarterback might just feel right. He might have that unquantifiable "it" factor.

Rarely does a team know for sure what it will get from its pick.

That is why the discussion about the quarterbacks entering this upcoming draft has been all over the map. There is growing sentiment that none of the quarterbacks rank among the 32 best players in the draft, but at least four, Carr among them, probably will be taken in the first round because of teams' needs.

Carr is gaining steam because, unlike Manziel, Bortles and Eastern Illinois' Jimmy Garoppolo, he ran a pro-style offense for a year in college. As a redshirt sophomore in 2011, Carr was a starter for then-Fresno State coach Pat Hill. He learned the skills a quarterback needs at the next level: timing, footwork, and accuracy, among them. He threw vertical routes with precision and displayed a strong arm.

Hill got fired after that season and was replaced by Tim DeRuyter, who implemented a spread offense. Carr adjusted.

But at his pro day last month, Carr did not throw a single bubble screen. He threw all vertical routes and afterward quipped that he dusted off the Pat Hill offense. It was smart. If teams want to evaluate him in context, they must look beyond 2013, when Carr played in a spread and threw for more yards and more touchdowns than any other quarterback in college football. They must look beyond 2012. They must go back and watch 2011.

"If you limit your exposure to just 2013 or 2012, you're missing the boat," said ESPN analyst Louis Riddick, the former director of pro personnel for the Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Redskins. "If you limit yourself to 2012, you are missing 2011, when he ran a quote-unquote pro-style offense, which at a young age I thought he showed excellent proficiency given where he was developmentally at that time.

"When you see him now in that type of system when he went to the Senior Bowl, during the practices, during the week, during the game, during his pro day, he was very comfortable with the footwork, timing, mechanics, accuracy that he's going to need at the NFL level. There are some people that are very, very, very impressed by what they think his skills are relative to an NFL projection. Conversely, when you look at Blake Bortles, Johnny Manziel, Jimmy Garoppolo, your projection is more along the lines of a guess than it is a projection, because there's no context to go off of."

Which is why there's growing sentiment around the league that Cleveland could decide that Carr is its guy and use the fourth overall pick on him despite owning three picks in the top 35, including No. 26 overall.

At the NFL owners meeting last week, new Browns coach Mike Pettine talked about the positive attributes Bortles, Manziel, Bridgewater and Carr possess. He said Bortles has all the measurables, Bridgewater is "very cerebral" and Manziel is a "gifted playmaker." Pettine said Carr was "the best natural thrower as far as arm strength ... in the draft."

When asked about the characteristics he's looking for in a quarterback, Pettine said he is not locked into a specific type but that he's "looking for a guy that's got that 'it' factor.

"We are going to work out to see how they are physically," Pettine added, "but at the same time do a lot of homework from a background standpoint, talking to guys, people they've played with, coaches, just trying to see who has that 'it' factor. You see a lot of guys that have the physical talent to play, and there's just something missing."

With Carr, there doesn't seem to be much missing. His intangibles are off the chart. He has, according to ESPN's Scouts Inc., exceptional character and "eats, drinks, breathes football." That his older brother David, the first overall pick in 2002, got beatento a pulp during his five seasons in Houston should not adversely affect the younger Carr. If anything, David should be able to help Derek.

Conventional wisdom says the Big Three will come off the board first come draft day. But don't be surprised if Carr's name gets called much earlier than expected or even before one of the more heralded prospects.

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Derek Carr might be draft's best QB

Pro offense experience could separate Fresno State star from draft's big three

By Ashley Fox | ESPN.com

....Carr is gaining steam because, unlike Manziel, Bortles and Eastern Illinois' Jimmy Garoppolo, he ran a pro-style offense for a year in college. As a redshirt sophomore in 2011, Carr was a starter for then-Fresno State coach Pat Hill. He learned the skills a quarterback needs at the next level: timing, footwork, and accuracy, among them. He threw vertical routes with precision and displayed a strong arm.

Hill got fired after that season and was replaced by Tim DeRuyter, who implemented a spread offense.....

I think it is funny that they said the same things about Gabbert. Here is an excerpt from a pre-draft article on Gabbert.

Among the areas of emphasis between Gabbert and Shea will be NFL terminology, reading defenses after life as a spread quarterback in college and, correspondingly, working under center.

That concern about Gabbert may be more minor than most realize: He worked under center in high school and, in fact, practiced it frequently at MU despite the fact the Tigers rarely did it in games.

Gabbert has recently said that his biggest adjustment to NFL is being “under center more.” http://ninerfans.com/new/49ers-blaine-gabbert-tells-me-his-biggest-adjustment-to-nfl-is-being-under-center-more/

Edited by Donnybrook

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I don't have access to coaches tape on these 4 prospects, but I've seen everything on DraftBreakdown.com. I don't consider it a big 4 situation because Teddy Bridgewater is on a different level. The other 3 do form a tier below Teddy. I just don't see them as having the natural vision cone that gives Teddy such a high ceiling as a QB.

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Is Derek Carr paying off Ashley Fox to bump up his draft stock?

I don't know who Ashley Fox is, but her credibility is shot. That piece was horrible. Derek Carr is probably going early first round, and I'm praying that hand grenade doesn't land in Oakland.

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Reality is, he is getting docked for being the little brother of David. Whether a team wants to take advantage of that fact or not, will be revealed shortly...I feel as though he is moving up the boards. Just a month ago it was a forgone conclusion he would be no higher than a second rounder...

I have a hard time believing that he's being docked for being David's brother.

Why? Guys get "points" for good blood lines (Rolles, Sharper, Mathews families), why would it not go the other way...at least a little bit?

I don't think so. Payton and Long kids didn't. Neither did Monk or Carter.

If by Payton, you mean Walter's kid, he is the epitome of nepotism in the NFL...he never should have been on a roster, and the only reason he got a chance was because he played for his father's former teammate. Chris Long, while deserving, was a 4th overall pick. If his last name was Franklin, he may not have gone that high (his name certainly did not hurt him).

This is a subjective evaluation process done by humans...you can't tell me one scout/GM/Personnel person hasn't looked at him and said "He looks a lot like David back there" only to hear "hopefully he does not play like him" in reply...

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http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2009298-why-are-experts-so-hot-or-cold-on-derek-carr#articles/2009298-why-are-experts-so-hot-or-cold-on-derek-carr

There are tons of scouting reports out on Carr. I've watched plenty of film and I have to agree that his throwing mechanics need to be improved. His reads were often quick and not complex as the NFL type reads. He's got a helluva an arm though. He needs to go to the right situation and be coached up, but his arm talent is the best of the "big 4" without a doubt. Anyone who takes him needs to be willing to wait on him for a season or two to work through his mechanics issues and learning an NFL playbook. There's a lot of hype building for Carr, but I think it would be a mistake to take him in the first round. Bridgewater has a much higher floor and ceiling imo. That arm is going to get him overdrafted I bet. I won't be mad if the Raiders take him in round 2, but all the mocks that have him as a mid to late round first round pick scare me.

I agree with most of what you said, but I think a lot of what you said makes more of a case for him being a first rounder and not a second rounder.

1st round selections get 5 year deals, 2nd rounders get 4 year deals. If you take a QB in the second and plan to sit him for at least 2 years then you only get 2 years to evaluate and 2 years worth of production on that rookie deal. If you take the same player in the late first (which may only be 5-10 picks earlier) you can feel much more comfortable sitting the player 2 years. I feel the second rounder could be forced to play sooner than the late first so you can figure out what you have.

I wanted to put a salary number to that option year, so did some quick research. Top ten draft picks get a 5th year option price equal to the Transition Tag price for their position, which is basically an average of the top ten players at the position in each of the last 5 years, adjusted for changes in the cap price in each year compared to now.

For players selected 11th through 32nd, it's similar except it is the average of the 3rd through 25th highest salaries at the position.

To get a ballpark figure I used Spotrac's salary database just for last year, while the real number would use the last 5 years. Adjusting for the increase in the salary cap, I came up with $19.3m for a top ten drafted QB and $12.1m for a non-top ten QB.

Edit: Whoops, I used the top 2014 salaries, so shouldn't have applied a cap correction. Drop them to like $17.9m and $11.2m.

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http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2009298-why-are-experts-so-hot-or-cold-on-derek-carr#articles/2009298-why-are-experts-so-hot-or-cold-on-derek-carr

There are tons of scouting reports out on Carr. I've watched plenty of film and I have to agree that his throwing mechanics need to be improved. His reads were often quick and not complex as the NFL type reads. He's got a helluva an arm though. He needs to go to the right situation and be coached up, but his arm talent is the best of the "big 4" without a doubt. Anyone who takes him needs to be willing to wait on him for a season or two to work through his mechanics issues and learning an NFL playbook. There's a lot of hype building for Carr, but I think it would be a mistake to take him in the first round. Bridgewater has a much higher floor and ceiling imo. That arm is going to get him overdrafted I bet. I won't be mad if the Raiders take him in round 2, but all the mocks that have him as a mid to late round first round pick scare me.

I agree with most of what you said, but I think a lot of what you said makes more of a case for him being a first rounder and not a second rounder.

1st round selections get 5 year deals, 2nd rounders get 4 year deals. If you take a QB in the second and plan to sit him for at least 2 years then you only get 2 years to evaluate and 2 years worth of production on that rookie deal. If you take the same player in the late first (which may only be 5-10 picks earlier) you can feel much more comfortable sitting the player 2 years. I feel the second rounder could be forced to play sooner than the late first so you can figure out what you have.

I wanted to put a salary number to that option year to that, so did some quick research. Top ten draft picks get a 5th year option price equal to the Transition Tag price for their position, which is basically an average of the top ten players at the position in each of the last 5 years, adjusted for changes in the cap price in each year compared to now.

For players selected 11th through 32nd, it's similar except it is the average of the 3rd through 25th highest salaries at the position.

To get a ballpark figure I used Spotrac's salary database just for last year, while the real number would use the last 5 years. Adjusting for the increase in the salary cap, I came up with $19.3m for a top ten drafted QB and $12.1m for a non-top ten QB.

Of course, there will be outliers to this formula. Expect Kaepernick, R Wilson, and Dalton to be paid a premium more than the non top 10 QBs. I don't think these teams want to piss off their starting QB with a transition tag.

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The SI 64, Nos. 39-35: Lamarcus Joyner, Derek Carr, Allen Robinson and more

Chris Burke

Excerpt:

No. 38: Derek Carr, QB, Fresno State

Bio: The stats for the two-time Mountain West Player of the Year are astounding. Last season alone, Carr completed 454 passes for 5,083 yards and 50 touchdowns — all tops in the NCAA. In eight of Fresno State’s 13 games, Carr topped 400 yards through the air, and surpassed the 500-yard total twice. Over back-to-back games against New Mexico and San Jose State, Carr threw for 13 total touchdowns. His numbers are among some of the most prolific all-time in FBS history. Of course, much of the credit there goes to the Bulldogs’ playbook, which featured pass after pass after pass. Still, the 6-foot-3 Carr, brother of former No. 1 overall pick David Carr, made the offense go with his rifle arm.

Strengths: Be it on a deep ball, threading the needle in traffic or driving the football to the boundary, Carr has the coveted arm strength to get the football where it needs to go. As with others who have fallen into that elite-arm category, Carr can make up for some of his other mistakes simply by cranking up the velocity on his passes. A high-character guy: Carr was extremely respected in Fresno State’s locker room and handled a difficult personal situation (his newborn son fell very ill) with a maturity beyond his years, while still leading the team. Smart before the snap, which will ease his NFL transition. Not anywhere near a scrambler, but Carr will get out of the pocket and keep his eyes downfield.

Weaknesses: Brings the negatives associated with that “gunslinger” mentality, namely that he will make mistakes attempting a gutsy play when there are safer options. Mechanics can break down, particularly when pressured. Has a tendency to cost himself accuracy by altering his arm slot — Carr doesn’t really come straight over the top as it is, something that could lead to passes being swatted at the line in the NFL. May need a little extra time to prep for an NFL offense, after a college career in Fresno State’s pass-heavy attack.

Conclusion: Some may look at Derek’s relation to David Carr as a curse; Derek has told anyone who will listen that it is just the opposite, that he has learned from his older brother’s oft-miserable experience as an NFL starter. There is little doubt that the talent is here for Derek to enjoy more success. Of course, there also will be some frustrating moments for the team that picks him, just based on how he plays the game. Cleaning up his mechanics would eliminate some of those. The risk may be worth it, too, with so many positives to like.

NFL player comparison: Matthew Stafford, Lions (1st round, 2009, Georgia)

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Mschay's latest mock on espn doesn't have Carr in the first two rounds.

Bortles: 4 to Cleveland

Manziel: 8 to Minny

Bridgewater: 11 to Tennessee (don't agree with this at all)

Tom Savage: 33 to Houston (not sure i've seen this guy anywhere near this high)

Garapolo: 39 to Jags

Then he lists best 5 players (not just qb's) available and Carr's not even on that list: Mccarron is though.

Rather surprising.

Edited by Tool

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Mschay's latest mock on espn doesn't have Carr in the first two rounds.

Bortles: 4 to Cleveland

Manziel: 8 to Minny

Bridgewater: 11 to Tennessee (don't agree with this at all)

Tom Savage: 33 to Houston (not sure i've seen this guy anywhere near this high)

Garapolo: 39 to Jags

Then he lists best 5 available and Carr's not even on that list: Mccarron is though.

Rather surprising.

That is surprising.

I see Carr and Metzenburger gone before the end of the 2nd round.

I could easily see Cleveland snatching up Carr at 26 if they don't use their 4th pick on a QB.

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The analyst are all over the place on this guy. A few nights ago on NFL Network one guy said he would be a good pick for one of the teams in the top 5, then the other analyst said he liked him in the 2nd round.

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Reality is, he is getting docked for being the little brother of David. Whether a team wants to take advantage of that fact or not, will be revealed shortly...I feel as though he is moving up the boards. Just a month ago it was a forgone conclusion he would be no higher than a second rounder...

I have a hard time believing that he's being docked for being David's brother.

Why? Guys get "points" for good blood lines (Rolles, Sharper, Mathews families), why would it not go the other way...at least a little bit?

I don't think so. Payton and Long kids didn't. Neither did Monk or Carter.

If by Payton, you mean Walter's kid, he is the epitome of nepotism in the NFL...he never should have been on a roster, and the only reason he got a chance was because he played for his father's former teammate. Chris Long, while deserving, was a 4th overall pick. If his last name was Franklin, he may not have gone that high (his name certainly did not hurt him).

This is a subjective evaluation process done by humans...you can't tell me one scout/GM/Personnel person hasn't looked at him and said "He looks a lot like David back there" only to hear "hopefully he does not play like him" in reply...

Jarrett I don't disagree on. He was a great kid with an outstanding work ethic and I'd be fine with nepotism being used for camp bodies, but come game time you want the best. The Titans had two RBs that did very well in NFLE back then and they barely got a chance to show it during camp and I always wondered what if. IIRC they both had more than twice as many yards as Jarrett in NFLE.

With David, people forget a lot.

David had a horrible throwing motion but did complete an absolute ton of passes with it. At one point, predraft he actually flung it sidearm(not true sidearm, but best word here) further than the other QB could normally at his proday.

Anyhow, other than that David was a very welcome prospect and one of the best prospects to come out. Now I understand the last statement is debatable, but here was a guy that had a child and IIRC a wife and spoke of family and responsibility during a time where we were bashing other prospects for partying the night before games, others getting caught getting high and...the mature "good boy" really grew on some GMs. Don't forget the guy they pick is the face of a franchise and paid a gazillion dollars.

It's been well documented that Chris Palmer's offense leads to QBs getting shellacked. When Locker got hurt, I want to say 3 of the top 5 for most sacked QBs of all time were Palmer's. If QBs are allowed to repeat in the list(most ever, don't usually) then I think he'd have 7 of 10. I'm guessing, too lazy to go look it up.

So Bledsoe got "killed" and BP went with "oh just chuck it" in frustration and he wound up setting the then NFL record for attempts. He would continue to have a long career but always be a bit herky jerky when pressure came.

Couch and Carr looked like they suffered from PTSD or were in the middle of a horror movie ready to scream "aaaaahhhh" at the top of their lungs.

I think Locker got hurt before it wrecked him.

I do think QBs can only take so many vicious hits before the mind hits the fight or flight mode. There was an awesome article once upon a time comparing it to a boxer's head taking hits.

I don't know that we knew nor found out what Carr was capable of other than taking a beating. In Giants camp, many years later, he threw a beautiful ball and while I've watched my share of QBs, this guy threw better than anyone I ever saw except Bradford. I totally thought he was better than Eli. Coughlin put them in a two minute drill and Carr turned into a different person-he crumbled under the least bit of pressure and I swear every single fan watching was amazed by it; we were definitely all looking at each other like "did you just see that?"

Anywho, long ramble- I imagine NFL GMs want to know if he's also a mature for his age "good boy" and if he crumbles under pressure. I imagine they ask someone to just pull tapes of close games and dissect the heck out of those.

To reiterate something- Now, I don't think Carr was one of the best prospects ever. I do think there was some sourness where he appeared as such back then though.

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Fresno State coach likens Derek Carr to Ryan Tannehill

By Chase Goodbread

College Football 24/7 writer

Two years after watching his last quarterback at Texas A&M be chosen in the first round of the NFL draft, Tim DeRuyter is about to see his first at Fresno State be drafted as well. And between Miami Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill and Derek Carr, the coach sees plenty of comparisions.

"He reminds me a lot of Ryan Tannehill personality-wise, awareness of the game, athleticism, maturity â very, very similar guy," DeRuyter said on the Damon Amendolara radio show. "I think he can have a career just like Ryan."

DeRuyter was Texas A&M's defensive coordinator and interim head coach in 2011, when Tannehill parlayed his final season as the Aggies' starting quarterback into becoming the No. 8 overall pick of the Dolphins. At the time, some critics panned Miami for overspending with the pick. Tannehill endured first-year struggles common for a rookie, but improved last season in multiple areas as the Dolphins went 8-8.

Like Tannehill, Carr's potential place in the draft is the subject of widely varying opinions.

NFL Media analysts Charles Davis and Bucky Brooks see Carr being drafted outside the first round in their latest mock drafts, while analyst Daniel Jeremiah has Carr going to the Arizona Cardinals with the No. 20 overall pick. The Cleveland Browns' second first-round pick, No. 26, has also been strongly speculated as a potential fit for Carr if the Browns don't draft a quarterback with the No. 4 pick.

If the early stages of Carr's NFL career indeed mirrors Tannehill's as DeRuyter suspects, some growing pains could be ahead before Carr finds consistent success. Tannehill threw more interceptions than touchdown passes as a rookie, a ratio that will make for a short NFL career as a starting quarterback.

Follow Chase Goodbread on Twitter @ChaseGoodbread

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Fresno State coach likens Derek Carr to Ryan Tannehill

By Chase Goodbread

College Football 24/7 writer

Two years after watching his last quarterback at Texas A&M be chosen in the first round of the NFL draft, Tim DeRuyter is about to see his first at Fresno State be drafted as well. And between Miami Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill and Derek Carr, the coach sees plenty of comparisions.

"He reminds me a lot of Ryan Tannehill personality-wise, awareness of the game, athleticism, maturity â very, very similar guy," DeRuyter said on the Damon Amendolara radio show. "I think he can have a career just like Ryan."

DeRuyter was Texas A&M's defensive coordinator and interim head coach in 2011, when Tannehill parlayed his final season as the Aggies' starting quarterback into becoming the No. 8 overall pick of the Dolphins. At the time, some critics panned Miami for overspending with the pick. Tannehill endured first-year struggles common for a rookie, but improved last season in multiple areas as the Dolphins went 8-8.

Like Tannehill, Carr's potential place in the draft is the subject of widely varying opinions.

NFL Media analysts Charles Davis and Bucky Brooks see Carr being drafted outside the first round in their latest mock drafts, while analyst Daniel Jeremiah has Carr going to the Arizona Cardinals with the No. 20 overall pick. The Cleveland Browns' second first-round pick, No. 26, has also been strongly speculated as a potential fit for Carr if the Browns don't draft a quarterback with the No. 4 pick.

If the early stages of Carr's NFL career indeed mirrors Tannehill's as DeRuyter suspects, some growing pains could be ahead before Carr finds consistent success. Tannehill threw more interceptions than touchdown passes as a rookie, a ratio that will make for a short NFL career as a starting quarterback.

Follow Chase Goodbread on Twitter @ChaseGoodbread

Is that a good thing or a bad thing?

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I like Tannehill to be honest. I think he's only going to grow. He hasn't had great weapons and is now entering the third year in that system. Give him a real weapon at receiver like a Jordan Cameron or Josh Gordon and he's scoring much better I think.

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I like Tannehill to be honest. I think he's only going to grow. He hasn't had great weapons and is now entering the third year in that system. Give him a real weapon at receiver like a Jordan Cameron or Josh Gordon and he's scoring much better I think.

well yeah, but you can say that about my grandmother too.

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Fresno State's Derek Carr says tape shows he's best QB in draft

By Mike Huguenin

College Football 24/7 writer

Fresno State star Derek Carr said he "absolutely" is the best quarterback in this draft.

He made his proclamation on Tuesday's edition of "NFL AM" on NFL Network. Then again, which player isn't going to say he's the best available at his position? But Carr seemed quite comfortable with his claim, saying, "We can turn the tape on and watch it."

Carr had a great 2013 season, but the season ended poorly with what was his worst performance in his final two years with the Bulldogs.

Carr threw for 5,083 yards and 50 TDs in '13 -- both figures led the FBS ranks by a large margin -- but he managed to throw for just 217 yards, two TDs and an interception in a humbling 45-20 loss to USC in the Las Vegas Bowl.

But he bounced back with good performances at the Reese's Senior Bowl and at Fresno State's pro day, and is seen as a probable first-round pick in May's draft.

Carr -- who did not throw at February's NFL Scouting Combine -- also said the potential definitely exists for him to go before one of the draft's top three quarterbacks: UCF's Blake Bortles, Louisville's Teddy Bridgewater and Texas A&M's Johnny Manziel. "From what I've heard ... it'll work out that way," he said.

He has been tied with Oakland and also with Cleveland.

Carr also has said some NFL teams have mentioned that they would bring in his brother, David, as a sort of mentor/backup quarterback. David was the first pick of the 2002 draft, to Houston.

On "NFL AM," Derek said David has been a good sounding board and has told him that he will hear both praise and criticism and to "ignore both because neither matters."

Houston has the No. 1 pick in this draft, but while the Texans could choose a quarterback, it won't be Carr with that selection. Still, Derek should join his older brother as a first-round pick. The Carrs then would join the Mannings (Eli and Peyton) as the only quarterback brothers to both be selected in the first round.

Mike Huguenin can be reached at mike.huguenin@nfl.com. You also can follow him on Twitter @MikeHuguenin.

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Davis: Derek Carr could be a poor man's Matthew Stafford

By Bryan Fischer

College Football 24/7 writer

It's a time-honored tradition when the draft rolls around -- comparing prospects to current or former NFL players. It's a good way for some teams to grasp how highly some 2014 NFL Draft hopefuls are valued as well as a way for fans to understand what kind of player their favorite team might be getting.

Recently, Fresno State coach Tim DeRuyter said he is reminded of Ryan Tannehill when he watches Derek Carr. While NFL Media analyst Daniel Jeremiah is a bit jealous he's not the first one to think of that comparison, he does agree with DeRuyter because he has the two quarterbacks rated similarly coming out of college.

"When I look at the grades I gave these guys, they are very, very similar," said Jeremiah on "Path to the Draft." "I have a slightly higher grade on Ryan Tannehill. When you look at what they bring to the table, I give Carr an edge in terms of arm strength, velocity, the quickness of the release. Ryan Tannehill, a former receiver, I give him the edge in athleticism.

"I see it."

Tannehill is about two inches and 10 pounds bigger than Carr, so it's not exactly an apples-to-apples comparison between the two in today's NFL, where size is a huge factor in a quarterback's draft evaluation nowadays. Still, DeRuyter saw both players in practice every day -- he was defensive coordinator at Texas A&M previously -- so he is definitely in position to throw that comparison out there.

It remains to be seen, howeer, if Carr can match Tannehill's draft position. Tannehill was taken by the Miami Dolphins with the eighth overall pick in 2012. Carr could seemingly go anywhere in the first round, but a number of mock drafts are trending toward him going to Cleveland with their second pick on the first day, at No. 26.

Fellow analyst Charles Davis didn't quite agree with the Tannehill comparison for Carr, but he did liken him to another NFL starting quarterback known for his big arm.

"I got fooled a little bit on tape with Derek Carr because he threw so many of those bubble screens and short passes," Davis said. "But when we saw him at the Senior Bowl, in bad weather, I got to see the arm on him. I thought to myself he could even be a poor man's Matthew Stafford with that type of an arm that can push it downfield."

"I don't get the comparison to Tannehill quite as much, but I get it in grades."

"One other thing they do share is, they are both very good interviews when you talk with people around the league," Jeremiah said.

We'll say this: It's better to compare Carr to someone like Tannehill than use the built-in similarities he has to his brother David, who was taken No. 1 overall by the Texans.

Whoever drafts Derek Carr in the first round, we're sure they are just hoping he can shed all the comparisons and create his own legacy on the field so he's the guy teams think of when they see a successful quarterback entering the draft.

Follow Bryan Fischer on Twitter @BryanDFischer.

Edited by Faust

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Carr had a great 2013 season, but the season ended poorly with what was his worst performance in his final two years with the Bulldogs.

Not true. His performance in last years Hawaii Bowl IMO was worse. Fresno's Oline could not handle the pass rush of Margus Hunt and Carr played terrible.

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Rotoworld:

According to STATS, Inc., 21.7 percent of Fresno State QB Derek Carr's attempts last season were screen passes.

As the draft process drags into the home stretch, reality and theoretical possibility have been discussed so interchangeably that the definition of certain players begins to change in a way that makes it difficult to remember who they actually are. Carr is a good example using the statistic above. During the season, he was an efficient quarterback in an extremely QB-friendly system who posted great numbers (5,083 yards and 50 TDs) but didn't necessarily demand attention. Since the season has ended, he's been mythologized into a cannon-wielding West Coast disciple (due to one season under Pat Hill as starter) with NFL bloodlines. The reality and fantasy of the situation distort the prospect. Yes, Carr has a strong arm, but it is of equal note that either Tim DeRuyter was misusing him at FSU or Carr's weaknesses were being intelligently shielded. It's one or the other. And if the latter is true, it wouldn't much matter if Carr could throw 200 yards from his knees.

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NFL Draft '14: A closer look at Fresno State quarterback Derek Carr

Seth Cox

The reality seems to be setting in that the Arizona Cardinals are, in fact, interested in some of the quarterbacks in the 2014 NFL Draft class.

While they have met publically with LSU's Zach Mettenberger at the combine and Logan Thomas at a workout at Virginia Tech, they privately have had eyes on other quarterbacks in this crop, including Fresno State's Derek Carr.

The attraction to Carr is understandable. He's got tremendous raw talent but he lacks the typical size of a Bruce Arians quarterback.

Monday, The Dan Bickley Show with Vince Marotta gave fans a unique insight into the quarterback and the pre-draft process, but what about the player?

Derek Carr
Quarterback
Fresno State Bulldogs
6-2 ¾, 214 pounds

Strengths:

• Drives the ball outside the numbers with ease on intermediate and deep routes.

• Excellent mobility in and out of the pocket and can extend plays with his feet.

• Throws a very catchable ball with good zip.

• Incredible velocity and arm strength. Has the ability to push the ball down the field and throw the entire route tree.

• Trusts his receivers to make plays down the field.

• Shows adequate pocket awareness and the ability to climb the pocket and drive the ball to his receivers.

• Throws into tight windows with great effectiveness.

• Improved every year while at Fresno State and was the unquestioned leader of his team.

Weaknesses:

• Struggles under pressure, forces the ball too often.

• Made too many simple reads in his Fresno State offense.

• Leaves the pocket early at times when he feels pressure.

• Throws to receivers, not spots, and doesn't always seem comfortable throwing into coverage.

• Worked out of the shotgun two of the last three years.

• Seemed to throw one too many "medicine balls" over the middle to his receivers.

• Gets beat by the blitz too often.

• Mechanics and footwork are spotty, and need work and time.

Overall:

Carr is a fearless, risk-taking, gunslinger of a quarterback who has the natural arm to be an exceptional fit in the vertical passing game in any NFL offense. Carr absolutely has the physical attributes of an NFL quarterback, and when you listen to him talk, he seems to have it upstairs as well, but there are concerns.

Can he stare down the barrel of a rush and deliver the ball consistently?

Will he clean up his footwork and delivery enough to be able to get the ball down the field?

Carr needs time to figure out the intricacies to the NFL game, but if he's going to be a success, he will have to marinate and learn.

Cardinals Spin:

There's little doubt that the Cardinals see Derek Carr's natural arm, ability to spin the ball and athletic ability in and out of the pocket, and see the prototypical Bruce Arians quarterback.

He's not nearly big enough compared to what Arians normally likes at quarterback though, as you could call his frame wispy and his height less than ideal, but those are flaws that can be overlooked if he brings enough elsewhere.

With the ability to sit and learn in year one, maybe year two as well, Carr would be able to fine tune the pieces of his game that are problematic.

Carr has Kevin Kolb-like pocket tendencies, as he bails out of clean pockets too often and throws with an unbalanced, off-kilter throwing base, relying on his outstanding arm strength to get balls to his receivers in tight coverage.

He's coming from a terrible offensive scheme at Fresno State, where he threw the ball less than five yards down the field an astounding 60 percent of the time, so he'll have to get used to getting deeper in his drops, waiting longer for his receivers and throwing them open, not waiting for them to get open.

He's an option, and fit for the Arizona Cardinals. The question is, would drafting him at No. 20 be too early?

Edited by Faust

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Rotoworld:

Fresno State QB Derek Carr is "gonna go in the first round, the way it looks right now," said ESPN's Mel Kiper on the "First Draft" podcast.

Kiper calls Carr a "red hot" prospect. When he was finished talking, fellow analyst Todd McShay said with bemusement: "Unbelievable." Earlier in the process, McShay said he wouldn't take Carr until the fifth round. And how? He's bumped Carr "up" to a fourth-round grade. "Put it this way, I'm not wavering on Derek Carr," said McShay.
Apr 17 - 11:25 PM

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