Man, do I need immunity for week 4. My number 1 QB, WR, and TE, plus 2 RB and a kicker all out that week.
You and me both, I actually feel like I got it worse than you in week 4. I had always thought I'd stuggle to advance the week Peyton was out if Teddy B was not starting and now I think it's absolutely imperative Bridgewater is starting week 4, and it still may not be enough. Will be without my #1QB, #2 RB, #1 WR, #1 K and #1 D. I'd say I should sail on if I make it past that week but week 9 is not a cupcake either for me should I find myself still around.
So with that in mind I feel like I drafted a solid team but I also think I'm going to get eliminated in week 4 so hard to be excited about it so I'll do a brief run down.
1.5 Peyton Manning (4)
13..5 Teddy Bridgwater
Knew it was a risk when I went with a backup QB not guaranteed to be a stater. Fact is I'm not very high on Bridgewater either but felt that he was the most NFL ready of the rookie QB's so opted to go with him just to increase the chances I'd have a QB when PM went out. Peyton missed a season but he's never missed a game, his durablity and performance being major reasons I took a QB so high. I knew of course that adding Welker as my #1WR and Prater as my #1 K was going to short me during Denvers bye week and make it more challenging to advance that week. Also losing my #2RB and #1D that same weeek makes this Bridgewater starting and performing well in week 4 probably the differene between being done or still alive and that's not the position I wanted to put myself in so in hindsight I wish I'd have used an earlier pick on a QB with a higher probablity of playing in week 4.
2.12 CJ Spiller- (9)
3.5 Andre Ellington (4)
5.5 Chris Johnson(11)
9. 5 Bernard Pierce(11)
I went with only 4 based on fact I feel this is a strong 4 and fact my WR's were so weak I wanted to throw as many darts at that position as possible. I love Spiller's talent and think he can rebound to something closer to that consensus first round fantasy pick he was entering last season. He said it best a few days ago, that he almost ran for 1,000 yards on one leg....Ellington is someone I whiffed on badly last season. Not only not drafting him anywhere but discouraging anyone who would listen to me from "wasting" a roster spot on him. Terrible call on my part but it had less to do with talent and more of what I saw as a third down back in an offense that did not like to involve RB's in the passing game. I sold Arians short. He did what good coaches do, he adjusted to fit his personell. I like Ellington to be very consistent weekly performer due to high pass catching totals and in general he's a player I see rising up drafts as we get closer to the season....CJ was picked before he landed on the Jets but I felt that was the most likely spot. Similar to Peyton I really value his weekly avaibility and as bad as everyone paints him as being he's manages to be a low end RB1/high end RB2 every year. Jets may not seem like a great landing spot but they were 6th in the league in rushing last season and I think Vick, while healthy, will help out the running game.....Pierce may open the season as the starter if Rice is suspended. Either way he figures to have a role if he can get healthy. I do expect the Ravens to spend a decent draft pick on a RB, higher than most people think, but I think that will have more to do with Rice's possibe suspension/age/workload and Pierce still recovering from off-season surgery.
4.12 Wes Welker (4)
9.5 Golden Tate(9)
10.12 Aaron Dobson(10)
12.12 Kelvin Benjamin
17.5 Cody Latimer
19.5 Santonio Holmes
20. 12 Miles Austin
Ok so this group would inspire confidence in no one and only using my 4th round pick out of my top 9 picks I can say it's not an accident. My theory is WR's are sick deep and value would be around later at this position more than any other and in my opinion that proved true. Now as I typed this it just dawned on me that out of 7 WR's I drafted only 3 even have teams right now so can't say for sure how bad the bye weeks will be. I can't even say for sure if Holmes or Austin will be in the NFL next season. And still I think if I survive week 4 this group will be good enough to keep me going.
Quick rundown on each: Welker, before his first concussion I think he was the #1 or #2 fantasy WR. The Peyton connection could be deadly a lot of weeks and what I like about Wes is when healthy he's consistent due to high catch volume and I needed someone to anchor that #1WR spot on that team. Other than Peyton losing Welker would be the biggest blow to my team and I am concerned about his concussions so it's not a pick without risk but has a big chance of working out....Tate's value could change if the Lions landed an Evans or Watkins but even then I think he's going to be a 70 catch guy at minimum but could be an extremely underated monster if he maintains the clear cut #2 job. If you look at what's he's done on a per target basis the last two seasons it's phenomenal. Judging from where I took him in this draft I think people are not valuing him nearly enough.....Dobson looked the part last year and by that I mean looked like a future star, not just a guy. Only concern with him at all is his healthy and how thinks shake out if all the WR's and TE's on NE are healthy. My opinion of those WR's is Dobson is the clear cut #1 outside receiver who offers a skill set no one else on the team does.....Benjamin is a guy I'm not that high on in general but I took him on the hope I could be wrong but more than anything I see WR who should be a lot better in a best ball format as a big time red zone threat at a minimum.....Latimer in the 17th round is a steal to me when you consider he could be a first round pick in the NFL and figures to at worst be a very high second rounder. In terms of Dynasty outlook I prefer him over a guy like Benjamin but again took Benjamin earlier because I thought I had to and because I think Benjamin could be a better best ball player.....I think a healthy Holmes is still a very good NFL reciever. That being said I'm not sure his attitude is going to open up a lot of doors for him and he might have to wait for pre-season injuries to get signed. I'd concede a chance his attitude and poor injury plagued play the last two years could leave him unemployed if things don't break right but my guess is this does not happen. In the right situation I think he would not simply be decent, but take a major rebound, that is if his heart is in it and he's willing to put in the work. Worth the shot to me considering team need.....Miles is someone I think also has to wait for an opening. I don't think he's nearly as versatile or as good as Holmes but he's also not a headcase so I feel way more confident he gets signed. He's not so old he should be suffering a decline yet due to age and if he can get those hamstrings right I think he'll be a producive player for someone.
I could frame this situation really negatively. I'm relying on a player who missed a ton of time last year with two concussions, a WR switching teams when that more often than not does not work out, a player who struggled with injuries last year in Dobson, two rookies and two has-beens.
On a more positive note I felt like I've got enough guys that I can get 2-3 quality starts most weeks out the group and since I laid off on WR's it helped me obtain my #1 RB, #1 D, #1 K and what I personally feel is the best set of RB's in this league. So enough quality in other positions to cover.
6.5 Martellus Bennett(9)
7.12 Heath Miller(12)
18.12 Brandon Bostick(9)
Held off on this spot until the 6th and came out really liking this group a great deal. As much as you can without having a top 2-3 stud.
Marty Bennet is what we've seen the past two seasons. A solid 50-60 catch TE who has demonstrated good health and availability. He's not exciting but he's solid and available....I actually consider Heath Miller my #1 TE but waited to take him simply because I thought I could get him later. I'll make a bold prediction. Heath Miller will be a top 8 fantasy TE this season and over the next 2 seasons of his career will give you 80-100% of the production of a similar aged player in Whitten. Depending on who they add in the draft, or don't add, I might feel even better about him. This is a team that got 10 TD's out of Cotchery and that's a role I think will primarily fall to Heath. He's a guy who has spent most of his career in extremely unfriendly TE offenses. Year one with Haley and he was top 5 TE in most formats and I think he's got a chance to be as good or better than 2012 this season. He's a guy I'm going to be drafting all over the place....On the Bostick pick he was just to appealilng to pass up. I put his chances of starting at 50/50 and I could see some Julius Thomas type ascent if he does so a homerun swing. Bostick and Ryan Griffin are both similar to me in that they are on teams where the incumbent TE is gone but both teams resigned last years backups. I think due to Quarless and Graham resignign there is some kind of assumption they resigned to start. I don't feel that way and feel like both Griffin and Bostick are very much in contention to be TE1 on thier teams so I had hoped to land one of them. Misson accomplished.
11.5 Seattle D (4)
15.5 Dallas D(11)
14.12 Matt Prater (4)
16.12 Dan Bailey (11)
So I took the first QB, first D, and first K so of course I ended up with my top players at those spots. If this was a league you set a weekly lineup I'd view this as a terrible idea and completey counter to how I normally draft which is one of the last people to pick those spots. This format is different and knowing my WR's would not figure to be a strenght I wanted to load my team up as good as possible on the other positions.
End result is I personally like this team but I'd also bet this team is put out in week 4 so in the end my draft will go down as a failure.
