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Dynasty & Redraft: WR Demaryius Thomas, Free Agent

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Not much talk about him this year. He is sitting there in the 3rd for me along with the likes of Fitz and Marvin Jones who I like. This is a physical specimen that has typically been a top 5 receiver off the board (Full disclosure he had Manning throwing him the ball). I have no qualms throwing last year out with the ducks he was being thrown by the QB carousel. Keenum isn’t gonna blow the barn doors off but he is absolutely an upgrade and can get the ball in DT’s hands. However, the preliminary talk of camp is how much Keenum has been looking Sanders’ way. What are the pools thoughts? Draft this weekend and I’m torn on the 3.

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2 hours ago, ratbast said:

Ive got him as my 2, nervous about his health not his targets.

 

If that’s the case, add Sutton to the end of your bench.

 

.

Edited by Bronco Billy

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Sanders will likely finish with more points and is being drafted ~4 rounds later.  

In that range  I greatly prefer juju, Landry, Watson, Miller.... 

Edited by [icon]

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4 minutes ago, [icon] said:

Sanders will likely finish with more points and is being drafted ~4 rounds later.  

The mocks I have been doing have him going in the 5th. Which surprised me. 

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On ‎8‎/‎8‎/‎2018 at 8:58 PM, Tanner9919 said:

put him out to pasture..

old looking 30 yr old who has seen his yards/rec drop each year he's been in the league, his yards/gm have dropped in each season since 2014.his catch rate has dropped each year since 2012 ( except 2016 where it popped up a bit),his rec/gm have dropped in each year since 2014..his targets have dropped in each year since 2014, and his receptions/yr have dropped in each year since 2014.... perhaps the MOST telling stats are the TD #'s which have fallen off the map down from double digits to 6,5,5 in each of the past 3 seasons..whats worse is his longest TD has dropped from a high of 86 yards in 2014 to just 40 last season. he's clearly slowing down and the numbers show it. last season he failed to reach 1000 yards receiving for the first time in his NFL career and that trend is likely to continue..

he hit a high mark in 2014 and has not been the same player since..

not a lot to see here..

It's hard to imagine how a WRs numbers would drop when they got to play with such legendary QBs like Brock Osweiler, Trevor Siemien, and Paxton Lynch.  

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On ‎8‎/‎8‎/‎2018 at 9:28 PM, matuski said:

It is almost as if Paxton Lynch, Brock Osweiler, and Trevor Semian aren't as good as Peyton Manning.

That or he miraculously began to suck after 2014.

:goodposting:

should have scrolled down before replying.

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1 hour ago, [icon] said:

Sanders will likely finish with more points and is being drafted ~4 rounds later.  

In that range  I greatly prefer juju, Landry, Watson, Miller.... 

I'm with Icon. I'm a Bronco fan and feel confident that all things being equal Sanders could out produce him this year. 

Case likes the underneath routes and that is where Sanders makes his $$$

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9 hours ago, Elevencents said:

The mocks I have been doing have him going in the 5th. Which surprised me. 

Your mocks have Sanders going in the 5th?! Wow.

FBG consesus ADP has Sanders around #83 (WR35)... which is excellent value. DThomas is in the mid 40s (WR18) which is overpaying IMO (even IF he’s not lost a step and is moved around).

Sanders in the 5th eats up a LOT of the value there. Can you confirm that’s what you meant? Is anyone else seeing this? 

Edited by [icon]

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1 hour ago, [icon] said:

Your mocks have Sanders going in the 5th?! Wow.

FBG consesus ADP has Sanders around #83 (WR35)... which is excellent value. DThomas is in the mid 40s (WR18) which is overpaying IMO (even IF he’s not lost a step and is moved around).

Sanders in the 5th eats up a LOT of the value there. Can you confirm that’s what you meant? Is anyone else seeing this? 

I do indeed mean 5th. And this is using draft dominator. Full disclosure it is a keeper league so it is skewed a bit since it is not pulling from the entire pool of players. But I would say it is accurate to a ~round. 

ETA: Just checked my FFPC drafts. All 12 team 3 were BB: 6, 7 and 8. 1 classic and he went 7th. So your expectations are much closer than my leagues mock. 

Edited by Elevencents

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11 hours ago, [icon] said:

Sanders will likely finish with more points and is being drafted ~4 rounds later.  

In that range  I greatly prefer juju, Landry, Watson, Miller.... 

The last time E.Sanders outscored DT was 2010 when he only played 10 games, I'm not buying it.

Edited by ap28.allday

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Just now, Anarchy99 said:

by RotoWire Staff
(3 hrs ago) Rumors that Thomas is on the tradeblock are false, Benjamin Allbright of 104.7 FM Denver reports.

Some had speculated that Thomas could be reunited with former coach Josh McDaniels in New England, a proposal that makes a little sense given New England's lack of depth at the position and John Elway's penchant for saving dollars. Getting rid of Thomas, particularly from a leadership and morale perspective, would be a tough pill to swallow. Thomas staying in Denver might be bad news for Thomas fans as he figured to see an upgrade at quarterback, but good news for Case Keenum and the Broncos' other weapons.

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26 minutes ago, ap28.allday said:

The almost 32 year old E.Sanders is coming on strong and finally going to outproduce DT.  Yup.....

I assume you realize Sanders at thomas are essentially the same age (about 7mo apart).
 

Quote

 

EMMANUEL SANDERS WILL OUTSCORE DEMARYIUS THOMAS

This will be a big deal considering there are roughly 15 wide receivers picked after Thomas and before Sanders, and the difference between burning a fourth-round pick and a seventh-rounder is significant. Even scoring in the same ballpark makes their relative average draft position seem ridiculous, but it will look worse when Sanders scores more. Both wideouts had down seasons in 2017 due to several factors, with abysmal quarterback play vying with injuries for the main culprit.

Missing four games led to Sanders’ dropoff from three consecutive 1,000-yard seasons, but Thomas’ accumulated nagging ailments held him back as well. The former size/speed specimen, who has recently mulled retirement, is again nicked up and has readymade replacement Courtland Sutton lining up on the opposite perimeter, with Sanders manning the slot (53 percent of preseason routes, versus only 27 percent last year). Case Keenum, who thrived when targeting the slot last year, is an upgrade for all Broncos receivers, and Sanders is better-positioned to take advantage.

 

Head to head it's a bold statement but not as bold if you look closely at the changing dynamics of the Denver offense. Sanders slot useage has doubled this preseason... Keenum loves targeting the slot. 1+1=2. 

When talking pure value perspective, Thomas in the 6th represents excellent value in PPR, whereas thomas in the 4th represents poor value, IMO. Thomas will likely not be on any of my teams this year. Sorry if you invested in him and disagree.. we'll see how the season plays out. :D Cheers. 

Edited by [icon]

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5 minutes ago, [icon] said:

I assume you realize Sanders at thomas are essentially the same age (about 7mo apart).
 

Head to head it's a bold statement but not as bold if you look closely at the changing dynamics of the Denver offense. When talking pure value perspective, Thomas in the 6th represents excellent value, whereas thomas in the 4th represents poor value, IMO. Thomas will likely not be on any of my teams this year. Sorry if you invested in him and disagree.. we'll see how the season plays out. :D Cheers. 

Yes of course, however I don't see the player advanced in age of the two all of the sudden going to outproduce someone whom they never have in their career in a full season.  First you said E.Sanders was going to out score him, now your argument is the value proposition between the two players in the rounds their being drafted.  I've owned DT since 2010 in my dynasty league, picked him up in like the 30th round in the startup, no complaints here.  Give me DT over Sanders head to head. 

Edited by ap28.allday

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16 minutes ago, ap28.allday said:

The almost 32 year old E.Sanders is coming on strong and finally going to outproduce DT.  Yup.....

I don't see why it's out of the realm of possibility. I have Dt and have since his rookie year in dynasty, but Sanders has built a great rapport with keenum all off-season and as has been said has been moved into the slot a lot more than in the past. He looks revitalized. I think groupthink tells us Dt will outproduce Sanders but that's not a bet I would make. But the nice thing is you can get Sanders at a fraction of the cost and imo he can absolutely outproduce Dt on a season long basis

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16 minutes ago, ap28.allday said:

Yes of course, however I don't see the player advanced in age of the two all of the sudden going to outproduce someone whom they never have in their career in a full season.  First you said E.Sanders was going to out score him, now your argument is the value proposition between the two players in the rounds their being drafted.  I've owned DT since 2010 in my dynasty league, picked him up in like the 25th round in the startup, no complaints here.  Give me DT over Sanders head to head. 

Either you replied before my post was edited, or you edited out some key points. Either way I feel like I stated my case pretty clearly :)

For those of you who have Thomas in Dynasty... cool. For those of us looking for draft advice this year... I think most will agree Sanders will present better ROI, and I think the EOY scoring in PPR will be much closer than you think. But Like I said before... we'll see. Good luck with your teams this year :D Cheers 

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1 hour ago, [icon] said:

Either you replied before my post was edited, or you edited out some key points. Either way I feel like I stated my case pretty clearly :)

For those of you who have Thomas in Dynasty... cool. For those of us looking for draft advice this year... I think most will agree Sanders will present better ROI, and I think the EOY scoring in PPR will be much closer than you think. But Like I said before... we'll see. Good luck with your teams this year :D Cheers 

Well you clearly also write for rotoworld... Lol :lmao:

 

Demaryius Thomas hauled in 2-of-4 targets for 13 yards in the Broncos' third preseason game.

Thomas was outshined by both Emmanuel Sanders and Courtland Sutton, who went for 61 yards and 45 yards, and he finishes his preseason with just three catches for 18 yards after missing the second game with a wrist injury. Going almost three rounds before Sanders in fantasy drafts, Thomas might be a bit overvalued.

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/5700/demaryius-thomas

Edited by ap28.allday
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Going to reach for Sanders tomorrow at 63rd pick (early 6th) because I doubt he will be there at 82 (late 7th)... hoping I don’t have to pick between him and Jeffrey. I’ll take him over Crabtree, probably Davis and Gordon. 

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38 minutes ago, TheDirtyWord said:

Anyone heard the Florio rumor here?  Thomas could be traded or cut with an eye toward the Pats.

DEN/NE homers...any chatter?

not happening. i think it was an idea concocted by pats superfan peter king who nas zero insight on anything related to the Broncos

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6 hours ago, TheDirtyWord said:

Anyone heard the Florio rumor here?  Thomas could be traded or cut with an eye toward the Pats.

DEN/NE homers...any chatter?

Sutton. I heard these rumors 2 weeks ago and was laughed out of the thread. 

 

Sutton. 

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8 hours ago, TheDirtyWord said:

Anyone heard the Florio rumor here?  Thomas could be traded or cut with an eye toward the Pats.

DEN/NE homers...any chatter?

 

Yeah.  It’s patently stupid.  Don’t you think as alleged professionals in journalism and allegedly thoroughly understanding the NFL that they might consider checking out the contract/cap hit situation (takes all of about 1 minute to do) before they post this kind of nonsense?

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On 8/25/2018 at 8:47 PM, Bronco Billy said:

 

Yeah.  It’s patently stupid.  Don’t you think as alleged professionals in journalism and allegedly thoroughly understanding the NFL that they might consider checking out the contract/cap hit situation (takes all of about 1 minute to do) before they post this kind of nonsense?

Not sure what you're insinuating here, but DT is only a $4.4M cap hit to trade.  DEN would save $7.6M this year and he has a whopping $17.5M cap number next year.

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23 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

Not sure what you're insinuating here, but DT is only a $4.4M cap hit to trade.  DEN would save $7.6M this year and he has a whopping $17.5M cap number next year.

 

$11M of his signing bonus accelerates forward to this year’s cap and his $4M option bonus would be dead money as well.  That’s a $15M cap hit against clearing his $8.3M salary.

 

Next year it flips.  He’s contracted for $14M but would only cost $5.5M as a cap hit if they cut him.  That $5.5M could be spread over 2 years if he’s cut after the 2019 NFL year starts.

 

ETA - I assume you’re looking at Sportstrac, their numbers are the same as what you are citing,  I believe they missed the previously guaranteed signing bonuses that get factored over the length of the contract and accelerate forward if he is traded or cut.

Edited by Bronco Billy

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9 hours ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

$11M of his signing bonus accelerates forward to this year’s cap and his $4M option bonus would be dead money as well.  That’s a $15M cap hit against clearing his $8.3M salary.

 

Next year it flips.  He’s contracted for $14M but would only cost $5.5M as a cap hit if they cut him.  That $5.5M could be spread over 2 years if he’s cut after the 2019 NFL year starts.

 

ETA - I assume you’re looking at Sportstrac, their numbers are the same as what you are citing,  I believe they missed the previously guaranteed signing bonuses that get factored over the length of the contract and accelerate forward if he is traded or cut.

 

Well, I might be the stupid one.  I didn’t see that part of that guaranted money was his first 3 years’ salaries.

 

It makes more sense from the DEN side then, except for running a rookie WR all year as a starter and also in enriching NE for what I’m guessing would be a lower round pick.

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On ‎8‎/‎25‎/‎2018 at 4:12 PM, Milkman said:

Sutton. I heard these rumors 2 weeks ago and was laughed out of the thread. 

 

Sutton. 

All you posted at first was "Rumors circling that he may get cut." With zero background, zero cited sources/reasons or any details at all... if you had provided some context or reasoning, people wouldn't have ridiculed your post.

 

Edit: Or at least some of us wouldn't have, I know Dr Dan got roasted in a different GB thread talking about sources he might have close to the GB RB situation.

Edited by Buckna

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Back to DT, a trade to another team makes some sense if Sutton is really looking like the stud us dynasty folks hope for. The option bonus they paid DT a few months ago is a sunk cost at this point, it counts against the cap no matter what. Trading DT to another team would make sense in that the Bronco's would save that high base salary, and a new team could make a new extension that has been pre-worked out or to be worked out in the future. Tears up next year which is a ridiculous number that almost certainly would result in DT being cut no matter what. The Bronco's get some compensation back for foolishly blowing $5M and activating the last two years of DT's contract only to move on a few months later. From what little news is out there, DT supposedly looks heathly and reinvigorated this year in training camp so the team getting him may get a heck of a player with a little bit of tread left on the tires.

Why you would trade DT to a conference rival in the Pats is a mystery to me though unless there's some pretty nice compensation.

Edit: Looking at the original source article, looks like nothing but Florio and Peter King spit-balling though.

Edited by Buckna

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15 minutes ago, Buckna said:

Why you would trade DT to a division rival in the Pats is a mystery to me though unless there's some pretty nice compensation.

I assume you mean conference rival here. Avoiding trading to anyone in the AFC severely limits your market for a player.

That said, stated above, nothing to see here. Speculation. 

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1 minute ago, [icon] said:

I assume you mean conference rival here. Avoiding trading to anyone in the AFC severely limits your market for a player.

That said, stated above, nothing to see here. Speculation. 

Yep, misspoke, not division but conference rival. Seems like a bad idea to keep him in conference and strengthen another team. The recently mentioned Jags being another example.

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On 8/24/2018 at 10:50 PM, [icon] said:

Going to reach for Sanders tomorrow at 63rd pick (early 6th) because I doubt he will be there at 82 (late 7th)... hoping I don’t have to pick between him and Jeffrey. I’ll take him over Crabtree, probably Davis and Gordon. 

Turns out sanders was there at 7.10 (#82) for me... (couldn’t pass up Lynch as RB3 in 6th). Fantastic Value as my WR3. :thumbup: 

Thomas went 4.02 (#38) as his WR3. Too soon IMO. As a result he’s got CMC and Cohen as his RBs and I’ll be starting Barkley and Hunt. 

Edited by [icon]

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1 hour ago, Buckna said:

All you posted at first was "Rumors circling that he may get cut." With zero background, zero cited sources/reasons or any details at all... if you had provided some context or reasoning, people wouldn't have ridiculed your post.

 

Edit: Or at least some of us wouldn't have, I know Dr Dan got roasted in a different GB thread talking about sources he might have close to the GB RB situation.

That's the problem around here. I said take it fwiw and don't shoot the messenger. Now more smoke. I posted it so people could grab Sutton if they want before his price shoots up. I didn't say I knew for sure. Why can't people just say "hey thanks but I'm going to chill until i hear some more concrete info." I mean it's not like I stated it was for sure going to happen. This board is whack sometimes. Sheeesh. 

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Echoing everything everybody else is reading isn't that valuable. Finding out that maybe Denver is shopping their #1 WR before everybody else does could potentially be very valuable. If they are even discussing it interally says a lot about how they view their rookie receivers.

 

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Quote

Demaryius Thomas caught 4-of-7 targets for 24 yards in the Broncos' Week 4 loss to the Chiefs.

Thomas has been held under 25 yards in 2-of-4 games and has yet to top 65 yards in a game. He continues to battle drops. Thomas should have had a walk-in game-winning 28-yard touchdown on the final drive Monday night, but Case Keenum missed him running wide-open down the right sideline. Thomas may have also slowed up prematurely on the route. Either way, Thomas has been a massive disappointment. He'll be a WR3 next week on the road at the Jets.

Oct 2 - 12:01 AM

 

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7 hours ago, Skeletore Eh said:

This guy is done.   Sutton already better

That's my belief after watching him last night's MNF.  This guy is shell of his former self... no explosion or strength to ward off DBs.   Good thing I drafted his replacement in Sutton in Dynasty. 

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