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Nick Foles vs Andrew Luck (1 Viewer)

ShaHBucks

Footballguy
A real stat nerds vs tape grinder debate

You've just been offered Andrew Luck straight up for Nick Foles in your main dynasty league. Who would you rather have going forward?

Foles had a hot start, but who ends up with the better NFL career when it's all said and done?

 
If the Foles owner offered me him for Luck I would ask him how many 1's he will also give me for him.

 
If the Foles owner offered me him for Luck I would ask him how many 1's he will also give me for him.
Meanwhile you would have missed out on close to 10ppg in leagues that award 6pts per TD this year. Why wouldn't you even consider it?

 
I remember being offered some guy named Tom Brady back in 2002 for Culpepper - who was coming off the #1 rated season ever. Then again the same offer in 2003 and replying to the owner "how many 1sts you going to throw in?"

Not exactly the same - physically Luck is your prototypical QB - big-strong-gamer-etc. Foles is kinda like Brady - slow-flat-footed-but precise.

I would take Luck over Foles - but it is not a landslide. Who scores more FP in 2014? I would not be surprised if it is Foles.

Look back at Luck's game logs. I remember Foles had a terrible game against Dallas (later rumored he was hurt that game) - after that game people wanted him benched.

FOUR times this year Luck had games with ZERO TD's - but because he is Luck he gets the free pass.

THREE times this year Luck threw 3 or more INT's in a game! Foles had TWO INT's all year!

NINE GAMES Luck had 1 or less TD"s Including a month long stretch where he had 2 TD's over 4 games.

TEN Games Luck had 250 yards or less passing - Including 4 Games with less than 200 yards!

For such a pass happy team - Luck's numbers sure don't blow me away - Maybe I take Foles over Luck!

 
I would take Luck over Foles - but it is not a landslide.Who scores more FP in 2014? I would not be surprised if it is Foles.
This. I'm thinking more 2014-2025ish though.
Other than the mass media hysteria that tells you Luck is awesome - what about Luck makes you feel like he is way better than Foles? If you want to compare numbers - oh - don't go there. Foles is light years ahead - and has never even gone into the season at the #1 QB getting all the 1st team reps.

Turn on ESPN - they will tell you Luck is the best - therefore he is the best.

I guess Luck was the #1 pick in the 2012 draft while Foles was the 88th. (Tom Brady was the 199th pick in the NFL draft - while Manning was the #1 pick - therefore Manning is better?)

Found this on ESPN - so maybe don't ask them.

"Pro Football Focus, meanwhile, looked at every pass thrown in the NFL last season and charted the accuracy percentage of every quarterback. This isn’t the same as completion percentage, as it factors in dropped passes, deliberate throwaways and throws on which the quarterback was hit.

Foles finished 10th in the league with an accuracy percentage of 74.2 percent. Foles was seventh among NFL quarterbacks when under pressure, with an accuracy percentage of 68.1 percent. "

"Luck had the eighth-worst accuracy percentage when he was under pressure, edging outGeno Smith of the Jets at 56 percent. Considering that Luck’s mobility is often cited as one of his strengths, that’s a surprisingly low number. "

I don't believe it is as cut and dry as you may think. There were games last year where Luck was just horrible - and had he been picked 88th in the NFL draft - he would have been benched. Remember that game at San Diego? He was HORRIBLE. Foles does not get that free pass. Foles has a bad game and everyone wants him benched.

 
Nick Foles will definitely come back down to earth from last year's numbers, but he should still be good. I think he's on the level of Stafford or better. Stafford has Calvin Johnson and has never posted a YPA over 8.

The question you have to ask yourself is, when will Luck get his YPA to 7.5+? He's been a "dink and dunk" QB so far in his career. What's his ceiling? Is it Matt Ryan/Tom Brady? Well both those guys needed weapons to post big numbers. Look at Ryan's and Brady's numbers before Julio and Moss/Welker respectively.

Imagine if the question was Rodgers (at the same point in his career) VS Luck.

 
I would take Luck over Foles - but it is not a landslide.Who scores more FP in 2014? I would not be surprised if it is Foles.
This. I'm thinking more 2014-2025ish though.
Other than the mass media hysteria that tells you Luck is awesome - what about Luck makes you feel like he is way better than Foles? If you want to compare numbers - oh - don't go there. Foles is light years ahead - and has never even gone into the season at the #1 QB getting all the 1st team reps. Turn on ESPN - they will tell you Luck is the best - therefore he is the best.

I guess Luck was the #1 pick in the 2012 draft while Foles was the 88th. (Tom Brady was the 199th pick in the NFL draft - while Manning was the #1 pick - therefore Manning is better?)

Found this on ESPN - so maybe don't ask them.

"Pro Football Focus, meanwhile, looked at every pass thrown in the NFL last season and charted the accuracy percentage of every quarterback. This isn’t the same as completion percentage, as it factors in dropped passes, deliberate throwaways and throws on which the quarterback was hit. Foles finished 10th in the league with an accuracy percentage of 74.2 percent. Foles was seventh among NFL quarterbacks when under pressure, with an accuracy percentage of 68.1 percent. "

"Luck had the eighth-worst accuracy percentage when he was under pressure, edging outGeno Smith of the Jets at 56 percent. Considering that Luck’s mobility is often cited as one of his strengths, that’s a surprisingly low number. "

I don't believe it is as cut and dry as you may think. There were games last year where Luck was just horrible - and had he been picked 88th in the NFL draft - he would have been benched. Remember that game at San Diego? He was HORRIBLE. Foles does not get that free pass. Foles has a bad game and everyone wants him benched.
Honestly, I'm still going off of my evaluation of the two as college prospects, but Luck's career trajectory looks no better than say Andy Dalton's. You'd be embarrased to mention Nick Foles closest neighbors historically at his age in terms of output.

Luck isn't close to hitting his stride yet so you have to wonder if now is the last time to make a Foles/Luck swap before Luck reaches his ceiling (which a better Aaron Rodgers to me. See I'm not crazy). This would be crazy talk a year ago. I don't think so now. It's crazy not to evaluate a whole new season worth of information. It's a real question a lot of FF writers I respect are asking.

As for the hype, no one can live up to that. I try not to even take it into consideration.

 
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I would take Luck over Foles - but it is not a landslide.Who scores more FP in 2014? I would not be surprised if it is Foles.
This. I'm thinking more 2014-2025ish though.
Other than the mass media hysteria that tells you Luck is awesome - what about Luck makes you feel like he is way better than Foles? If you want to compare numbers - oh - don't go there. Foles is light years ahead - and has never even gone into the season at the #1 QB getting all the 1st team reps. Turn on ESPN - they will tell you Luck is the best - therefore he is the best.

I guess Luck was the #1 pick in the 2012 draft while Foles was the 88th. (Tom Brady was the 199th pick in the NFL draft - while Manning was the #1 pick - therefore Manning is better?)

Found this on ESPN - so maybe don't ask them.

"Pro Football Focus, meanwhile, looked at every pass thrown in the NFL last season and charted the accuracy percentage of every quarterback. This isn’t the same as completion percentage, as it factors in dropped passes, deliberate throwaways and throws on which the quarterback was hit. Foles finished 10th in the league with an accuracy percentage of 74.2 percent. Foles was seventh among NFL quarterbacks when under pressure, with an accuracy percentage of 68.1 percent. "

"Luck had the eighth-worst accuracy percentage when he was under pressure, edging outGeno Smith of the Jets at 56 percent. Considering that Luck’s mobility is often cited as one of his strengths, that’s a surprisingly low number. "

I don't believe it is as cut and dry as you may think. There were games last year where Luck was just horrible - and had he been picked 88th in the NFL draft - he would have been benched. Remember that game at San Diego? He was HORRIBLE. Foles does not get that free pass. Foles has a bad game and everyone wants him benched.
Honestly, I'm still going off of my evaluation of the two as college prospects, but Luck's career trajectory looks no better than say Andy Dalton's. You'd be embarrased to mention Nick Foles closest neighbors historically at his age.Luck isn't close to hitting his stride yet so you have to wonder if now is the last time to make a Foles/Luck swap before Luck reaches his ceiling (which a better Aaron Rodgers to me. See I'm not crazy). This would be crazy talk a year ago. I don't think so now. It's a real question a lot of FF writers I respect are asking.

As for the hype, no one can live up to that. I try not to even take it into consideration.
Luck's ceiling isn't Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers' deep ball is just too good. Luck doesn't have that in his repertoire.

 
I would take Luck over Foles - but it is not a landslide.Who scores more FP in 2014? I would not be surprised if it is Foles.
This. I'm thinking more 2014-2025ish though.
Other than the mass media hysteria that tells you Luck is awesome - what about Luck makes you feel like he is way better than Foles? If you want to compare numbers - oh - don't go there. Foles is light years ahead - and has never even gone into the season at the #1 QB getting all the 1st team reps. Turn on ESPN - they will tell you Luck is the best - therefore he is the best.

I guess Luck was the #1 pick in the 2012 draft while Foles was the 88th. (Tom Brady was the 199th pick in the NFL draft - while Manning was the #1 pick - therefore Manning is better?)

Found this on ESPN - so maybe don't ask them.

"Pro Football Focus, meanwhile, looked at every pass thrown in the NFL last season and charted the accuracy percentage of every quarterback. This isn’t the same as completion percentage, as it factors in dropped passes, deliberate throwaways and throws on which the quarterback was hit. Foles finished 10th in the league with an accuracy percentage of 74.2 percent. Foles was seventh among NFL quarterbacks when under pressure, with an accuracy percentage of 68.1 percent. "

"Luck had the eighth-worst accuracy percentage when he was under pressure, edging outGeno Smith of the Jets at 56 percent. Considering that Luck’s mobility is often cited as one of his strengths, that’s a surprisingly low number. "

I don't believe it is as cut and dry as you may think. There were games last year where Luck was just horrible - and had he been picked 88th in the NFL draft - he would have been benched. Remember that game at San Diego? He was HORRIBLE. Foles does not get that free pass. Foles has a bad game and everyone wants him benched.
Honestly, I'm still going off of my evaluation of the two as college prospects, but Luck's career trajectory looks no better than say Andy Dalton's. You'd be embarrased to mention Nick Foles closest neighbors historically at his age.Luck isn't close to hitting his stride yet so you have to wonder if now is the last time to make a Foles/Luck swap before Luck reaches his ceiling (which a better Aaron Rodgers to me. See I'm not crazy). This would be crazy talk a year ago. I don't think so now. It's a real question a lot of FF writers I respect are asking.

As for the hype, no one can live up to that. I try not to even take it into consideration.
Luck's ceiling isn't Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers' deep ball is just too good. Luck doesn't have that in his repertoire.
Statistically speaking

 
I remember being offered some guy named Tom Brady back in 2002 for Culpepper - who was coming off the #1 rated season ever. Then again the same offer in 2003 and replying to the owner "how many 1sts you going to throw in?"

Not exactly the same - physically Luck is your prototypical QB - big-strong-gamer-etc. Foles is kinda like Brady - slow-flat-footed-but precise.

I would take Luck over Foles - but it is not a landslide. Who scores more FP in 2014? I would not be surprised if it is Foles.

Look back at Luck's game logs. I remember Foles had a terrible game against Dallas (later rumored he was hurt that game) - after that game people wanted him benched.

FOUR times this year Luck had games with ZERO TD's - but because he is Luck he gets the free pass.

THREE times this year Luck threw 3 or more INT's in a game! Foles had TWO INT's all year!

NINE GAMES Luck had 1 or less TD"s Including a month long stretch where he had 2 TD's over 4 games.

TEN Games Luck had 250 yards or less passing - Including 4 Games with less than 200 yards!

For such a pass happy team - Luck's numbers sure don't blow me away - Maybe I take Foles over Luck!
their not a pass happy team, they wanted to run the ball a lot last yr put couldn't due to weakness at RB and O-Line. I saw a lot of the Colts last yr and it was the same story every week... Run & Run then Pass on 3rd and long. Then the 2nd half would come and they would be down by a couple of points and its like "ok Drew, go do your thing". For those questioning Luck just watch him play especially in the 4th Qs of games... hes extremely clutch late in games. Going into yr 3 and if they don't open things up for him its time for a coaching change.

 
For those questioning Luck just watch him play especially in the 4th Qs of games... hes extremely clutch late in games.
I don't think anyone is questioning Luck as a NFL QB, just how long is he going to stay 21 fantasy points a game Andrew Luck.

 
Nick Foles will definitely come back down to earth from last year's numbers, but he should still be good. I think he's on the level of Stafford or better. Stafford has Calvin Johnson and has never posted a YPA over 8.

The question you have to ask yourself is, when will Luck get his YPA to 7.5+? He's been a "dink and dunk" QB so far in his career. What's his ceiling? Is it Matt Ryan/Tom Brady? Well both those guys needed weapons to post big numbers. Look at Ryan's and Brady's numbers before Julio and Moss/Welker respectively.

Imagine if the question was Rodgers (at the same point in his career) VS Luck.
Code:
                            ​​​Games    ​Passing                                             ​​​​​​​​​Rushing​​​Name​          Year ​    Tm   ​G​   GS   ​Cmp  ​Att​   Cmp%    ​Yds   ​TD​  Int ​Rate  ​Y/A   ​AY/A   ​Att  ​Yds​  Y/A​  TDAaron Rodgers​ 2008-09​  GNB​  32​  32​   691​  1077  ​64.16%  8472  58​  20​  98.5  ​7.87  ​8.11   114​  523  4.59​ 9Andrew Luck​   2012-13​  CLT​  33​  33​   710​  1251​  56.75%​  8484  ​46​  28​  80.6​  6.78  ​6.51​   129  ​667  5.17​ 9Nick Foles​    2012-13  ​PH​   20​  16   ​364  ​582​   62.54%​  4590​  33  ​7   ​101   ​7.89​  8.48​    68​  263  3.87 ​4
 
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After one part of one year in chip kellys system, foles looks historically good. But what we don't know right now is how he will do in year two. There are some significant risks here.

- people may learn flaws/tendencies for chip kelly

-s people may learn flaws/tendencies for foles

- foles may have a sophomore slump

- mccoy's outstanding season made foles' job easier

- desean jackson's career year helped foles immensely

- more teams may run no huddle/hurry up so the eagles o will be less difficult for defenses

- the eagles faced some brutally bad defenses

There are also some positives

- foles may take a step forward after a year of experience

- kelly may take a step forward after a year of experience

- sproles should help spread offenses out

- maclin returns healthy

- cooper could take a step forward

With luck, the risks are a lot lower, but they are significant

- luck has never had as good a season as foles just did

- pep wants a run oriented offense and seems to put the reins on luck

But the upside is significant

- hilton made big strides in the second half and postseason

- wayne comes back

- nicks is signed

- luck was predicted to be a generational player and is on pace

You can tweak these lists all you want but the point remains that foles has big upside, but a lot of risk. Luck has big upside, with less risk. That's the difference in their price right now.

 
I would take Luck over Foles - but it is not a landslide.Who scores more FP in 2014? I would not be surprised if it is Foles.
This. I'm thinking more 2014-2025ish though.
Other than the mass media hysteria that tells you Luck is awesome - what about Luck makes you feel like he is way better than Foles? If you want to compare numbers - oh - don't go there. Foles is light years ahead - and has never even gone into the season at the #1 QB getting all the 1st team reps. Turn on ESPN - they will tell you Luck is the best - therefore he is the best.

I guess Luck was the #1 pick in the 2012 draft while Foles was the 88th. (Tom Brady was the 199th pick in the NFL draft - while Manning was the #1 pick - therefore Manning is better?)

Found this on ESPN - so maybe don't ask them.

"Pro Football Focus, meanwhile, looked at every pass thrown in the NFL last season and charted the accuracy percentage of every quarterback. This isnt the same as completion percentage, as it factors in dropped passes, deliberate throwaways and throws on which the quarterback was hit. Foles finished 10th in the league with an accuracy percentage of 74.2 percent. Foles was seventh among NFL quarterbacks when under pressure, with an accuracy percentage of 68.1 percent. "

"Luck had the eighth-worst accuracy percentage when he was under pressure, edging outGeno Smith of the Jets at 56 percent. Considering that Lucks mobility is often cited as one of his strengths, thats a surprisingly low number. "

I don't believe it is as cut and dry as you may think. There were games last year where Luck was just horrible - and had he been picked 88th in the NFL draft - he would have been benched. Remember that game at San Diego? He was HORRIBLE. Foles does not get that free pass. Foles has a bad game and everyone wants him benched.
Honestly, I'm still going off of my evaluation of the two as college prospects, but Luck's career trajectory looks no better than say Andy Dalton's. You'd be embarrased to mention Nick Foles closest neighbors historically at his age.Luck isn't close to hitting his stride yet so you have to wonder if now is the last time to make a Foles/Luck swap before Luck reaches his ceiling (which a better Aaron Rodgers to me. See I'm not crazy). This would be crazy talk a year ago. I don't think so now. It's a real question a lot of FF writers I respect are asking.

As for the hype, no one can live up to that. I try not to even take it into consideration.
Luck's ceiling isn't Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers' deep ball is just too good. Luck doesn't have that in his repertoire.
Not really fair. Rodgers didn't come into the league with that deep ball, from what I remember.

 
I remember being offered some guy named Tom Brady back in 2002 for Culpepper - who was coming off the #1 rated season ever. Then again the same offer in 2003 and replying to the owner "how many 1sts you going to throw in?"

Not exactly the same - physically Luck is your prototypical QB - big-strong-gamer-etc. Foles is kinda like Brady - slow-flat-footed-but precise.

I would take Luck over Foles - but it is not a landslide. Who scores more FP in 2014? I would not be surprised if it is Foles.

Look back at Luck's game logs. I remember Foles had a terrible game against Dallas (later rumored he was hurt that game) - after that game people wanted him benched.

FOUR times this year Luck had games with ZERO TD's - but because he is Luck he gets the free pass.

THREE times this year Luck threw 3 or more INT's in a game! Foles had TWO INT's all year!

NINE GAMES Luck had 1 or less TD"s Including a month long stretch where he had 2 TD's over 4 games.

TEN Games Luck had 250 yards or less passing - Including 4 Games with less than 200 yards!

For such a pass happy team - Luck's numbers sure don't blow me away - Maybe I take Foles over Luck!
their not a pass happy team, they wanted to run the ball a lot last yr put couldn't due to weakness at RB and O-Line. I saw a lot of the Colts last yr and it was the same story every week... Run & Run then Pass on 3rd and long. Then the 2nd half would come and they would be down by a couple of points and its like "ok Drew, go do your thing". For those questioning Luck just watch him play especially in the 4th Qs of games... hes extremely clutch late in games. Going into yr 3 and if they don't open things up for him its time for a coaching change.
Exactly, they could become one if their philosophy changed. They have the players to be pass happy.

Indy ranked #15 in pass attempts in 2013, Philly ranked #27 :shock:

Philly did more with the passes they did attempt.

For 2014 it isn't close IMO - give me Foles.

But really, from what I've seen I'll be avoiding both unless I'm in a dynasty building phase.

 
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This isn't the slam dunk many seem to think it is. At least not for fantasy it isn't. Foles actually out produced Luck last year from a PPG standpoint. Still, I choose Luck. In redraft it's much closer than it is in dynasty but I'd take Luck in both formats.

For dynasty it's pretty simple. I want the best talent on my team. That guy is Luck and I don't think it's very close. Foles, while very good, is more a product of his situation right now in a pass happy offense. Luck has shown he can produce in a rather poor situation IMO.

In redraft it's a bit more complicated and close but is still prefer Luck. I'm concerned about the lose of DJax in Philly and think losing a dynamic player like him is going to effect the offense in a negative way. Even if Philly drafts a WR early, he will not replace DJax. On the other hand, Indy is getting their 2 best pass catchers back healthy in Wayne and Allen. I'm not sure how effective Wayne will be at this point but I'm still thinking it's an upgrade. They also added Nicks to the equation. So, Indy upgraded its weapons while Philly downgraded. Overall, I still like the weapons on Philly more than the weapons Indy offers. The gap has closed, though. When I look at these guys for next year I find myself projecting very similar stats. In that case I'll give the tie breaker to the more talented player, Luck.

 
If the Foles owner offered me him for Luck I would ask him how many 1's he will also give me for him.
Meanwhile you would have missed out on close to 10ppg in leagues that award 6pts per TD this year. Why wouldn't you even consider it?
because I have a stud for the next decade and a half and Foles numbers will dive if ge ever leaves Chip Kelly.
 
Foles for me. His decision making ability is well beyond his experience level. Losing desean hurts but gaining maclin, sproles, whatever WR they pick up in the draft and a full offseason as the legit starter in Kelly's offense is a net gain IMO. The brain and instincts are there, the rest should only get better.

 
If the Foles owner offered me him for Luck I would ask him how many 1's he will also give me for him.
Meanwhile you would have missed out on close to 10ppg in leagues that award 6pts per TD this year. Why wouldn't you even consider it?
because I have a stud for the next decade and a half and Foles numbers will dive if ge ever leaves Chip Kelly.
On what bases do you make this judgement? I'm looking for a little more substance. My rebuttal is from a year ago knowing Foles was already performing as rookie on a team that ended up picking in the top-5.

I'm tired of hearing about Chip Kelly's system. He tips his plays like Madden tournament players, ok... His offense is no better than any other offense. The only difference is the pace and number of plays called. He's like Mike D'Antoni. Let a Steve Nash lead Offense shoot with a lot of time left on the shot clock and you'll score a lot of points. Seems brilliant on the surface but when you break it down all he did was run pick and rolls all game and shoot 3's more frequently with really efficient players. It has more to do with the players than a magical system. Unless Kelly is blowing smoke, I like his theory of being a equal opportunity offense. All he cares about is putting the ball in the end zone. Doesn't matter if he has to pass 50x or run 50x. He's basically saying in every predraft interview that if you give me Tom Brady I will throw all game and I don't need a running QB. That's like if Kelly got the NE job he would trade Brady because he doesn't fit his system. That would be dumb. That was when I start buying Foles on the cheap because he could lead the next fast pace offense.
 
I think Chip Kelly's system inflates numbers for his qb's. If you are a good decision maker he will put you in spots to score,s core, and score some more. For all of Foles' weaknesses decision making is not one of them. I see the redraft argument, but dynasty? No.

 
Foles, while very good, is more a product of his situation right now in a pass happy offense. Luck has shown he can produce in a rather poor situation IMO.
The Eagles are not really a passing team. Foles had 3 games with more than 30 passing attempts. Luck had 3 games under 30 attempts. A throw from Nick Foles was just that lethal this season. That's actually why I asked they question. The Eagles are built to run the ball and the coach wants to run. I love the offense but it's run-heavy. The Colts, as someone mentioned, have to cut the Trent Richardson bs out and basically make Luck the OC like Peyton was. If Luck ups his efficiency he will be the one breaking all Manning's records because he could pass the ball 50+ times a game if he wanted in a era that favors the pass more than ever. Foles, not so. I'll definitely give that edge to Luck.

If we are talking about QB play from the two to this date then ehhh... Luck's aggression is little too ill-timed for my taste. Foles hardly puts the ball in danger (even with a concussion) and he takes whatever you give him. That's the reason the Eagles were even in games where he wasn't all that great. I credit him for that skill.

They both took over for a team with a top-5 pick. Foles situation wasn't the greatest in 2012. He produced as well. If you take away him coming in cold vs dallas as a rookie and his first start vs Was (remember Luck 1st start?), you can see where he started to take his game to another level.

 
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I think Chip Kelly's system inflates numbers for his qb's. If you are a good decision maker he will put you in spots to score,s core, and score some more. For all of Foles' weaknesses decision making is not one of them. I see the redraft argument, but dynasty? No.
I seen Mike Vick and Matt Barkley in 'Chip Kelly's system.' Heck I even seen Dennis Dixon try his hand at it vs NFL defenders if you'd allow it. I couldn't tell you why 'the system' didn't rub off on those guys passing numbers as well. To go back to my Mike D'Antoni reference, you can notice the drop-off from Steve Nash running your offense to Raymond Felton or Steve Blake. All of a sudden there are more turnovers, less open shots created and less efficient scoring. If you don't notice you'll get fired most likely. Mark Sanchez will be a interesting one.

 
I think Chip Kelly's system inflates numbers for his qb's. If you are a good decision maker he will put you in spots to score,s core, and score some more. For all of Foles' weaknesses decision making is not one of them. I see the redraft argument, but dynasty? No.
I seen Mike Vick and Matt Barkley in 'Chip Kelly's system.' Heck I even seen Dennis Dixon try his hand at it vs NFL defenders if you'd allow it. I couldn't tell you why 'the system' didn't rub off on those guys passing numbers as well. To go back to my Mike D'Antoni reference, you can notice the drop-off from Steve Nash running your offense to Raymond Felton or Steve Blake. All of a sudden there are more turnovers, less open shots created and less efficient scoring. If you don't notice you'll get fired most likely. Mark Sanchez will be a interesting one.
Vick is a terrible decision maker and Barkley can't throw more than twenty yards down the field.
 
Luck. Very few players can be projected to be one of the best ever and actually seem on track to be so; those few have always been the gems of the NFL.

 
i have foles in a dynasty league and am pretty high on him. But i'd trade him for luck. Luck has less risk of not being a star and a higher ceiling IMO

 
We should probably talk about how Russel Wilson is better too. You know, he won a Super Bowl and stuff.

 
The numbers point to Foles but you have to realize some things.

Foles was in a new type of offense that defenses had little to no NFL tape on, they do now and will adjust.

Foles lost his best deep threat

Foles has a running back that keeps safeties honest

Luck lost his best receiver mid season

Luck had very little in terms of running backs

Luck is asked to do more then Foles

Another thing to remember is there are still rumors that Chip Kelly isn't sold on Foles yet, and may pull a Harbaugh and draft a quarterback to groom and replace Foles, no one is replacing Luck.

 
I remember being offered some guy named Tom Brady back in 2002 for Culpepper - who was coming off the #1 rated season ever. Then again the same offer in 2003 and replying to the owner "how many 1sts you going to throw in?"
You didn't know who the reigning Super Bowl MVP was in 2002?

 
The numbers point to Foles but you have to realize some things.

Foles was in a new type of offense that defenses had little to no NFL tape on, they do now and will adjust.

Sure, that offense is also designed to score points. Maybe defenses will defeat it, we'll see.

Foles lost his best deep threat

but he also gains Maclin, Sproles and Ertz will mature. I don't see his receiving group as much worse than last year.

Foles has a running back that keeps safeties honest

He also has one of the better receiving RBs in the league. And another great receiving RB.

Luck lost his best receiver mid season

Wayne doesn't have much left IMO. The Colts group should improve from last year but Wayne is no longer among the upper crust.

Luck had very little in terms of running backs

same as 2014

Luck is asked to do more then Foles

OK

Another thing to remember is there are still rumors that Chip Kelly isn't sold on Foles yet, and may pull a Harbaugh and draft a quarterback to groom and replace Foles, no one is replacing Luck.

I don't see Chip going away from him. But yes, that is a small risk
Dynasty there shouldn't be much of a debate over who is more valuable. Whether you'd wait or pay less for Foles is a very viable plan.

Redraft though? I just don't see Luck putting up top 3 stats while Foles just might.

 
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We should probably talk about how Russel Wilson is better too. You know, he won a Super Bowl and stuff.
I'm open to make it a 'free for all' and add Wilson, Griffin and Tannehill to the discussion if you guys want. Or Luck vs all 4 since he's the gold standard. That sounds cool to me. There isn't much to talk about outside of draft prospects anyway. Like this post if you'd rather that. Comment if you'd prefer a free for all or a handicap match.

 
Foles, while very good, is more a product of his situation right now in a pass happy offense. Luck has shown he can produce in a rather poor situation IMO.
The Eagles are not really a passing team. Foles had 3 games with more than 30 passing attempts. Luck had 3 games under 30 attempts. A throw from Nick Foles was just that lethal this season. That's actually why I asked they question. The Eagles are built to run the ball and the coach wants to run. I love the offense but it's run-heavy. The Colts, as someone mentioned, have to cut the Trent Richardson bs out and basically make Luck the OC like Peyton was. If Luck ups his efficiency he will be the one breaking all Manning's records because he could pass the ball 50+ times a game if he wanted in a era that favors the pass more than ever. Foles, not so. I'll definitely give that edge to Luck.

If we are talking about QB play from the two to this date then ehhh... Luck's aggression is little too ill-timed for my taste. Foles hardly puts the ball in danger (even with a concussion) and he takes whatever you give him. That's the reason the Eagles were even in games where he wasn't all that great. I credit him for that skill.

They both took over for a team with a top-5 pick. Foles situation wasn't the greatest in 2012. He produced as well. If you take away him coming in cold vs dallas as a rookie and his first start vs Was (remember Luck 1st start?), you can see where he started to take his game to another level.
Amen - finally someone else who is not afraid to really examine the numbers.

Lets take a closer look at how DeSean Jackson was used and how he will affect Nick Foles.

Several posters here have wanted to point out how the loss of DeSean Jackson will hurt Foles. I don't think so....

DeSean Jackson - career best years - 82-1332-9.

So did DeSean Jackson make Nick Foles? Or did Nick Foles make DeSean Jackson? Before Nick Foles - Jackson's best year was 62-1156-9. So who is the reason DeSean Jackson caught 20 more balls and 200 yards more than he ever has in his career? Don't tell me Chip Kelly - we have already noted how this offense is super RUN happy - and Chip Kelly does not play QB - this is all on Nick Foles.

I am a big Redskins fan - and I gotta be honest - I am not at all excited about DeSean Jackson to Washington. If I had to bet - this won't end well for Washington. In two years DeSean and the new coaching staff will all be gone from Washington.

It is simple. The national media all missed out on Nick Foles. So instead of giving him credit - they point to Chip Kelly - or DeSean Jackson - or the great run game. Even people here in the shark pool want to do anything they can to discount what Foles did last year. He got lucky. It was the system he is in. But look at the numbers. Look at the attempts. Look at the games outdoor in the elements - that snow bowl game! No matter how you compare - Luck has done way less with more opportunity, more attempts, playing in doors etc.

Instead the national media continues to give Luck as pass. Calling him young. Discounting the poor run game. Luck fans will point to the clutch play against KC - the amazing come back. But what about the three interceptions in that game? If they don't come back to win that game maybe we would be talking about his poor decision making. I don't think so. When the media think's of Luck in 2013 they point to the KC game and the great comeback. I don't hear anyone talking about 4INT game Luck had the next week. Or Luck's CLUTCH 2 INT's in the 4th quarter in that very next game. But he gets a pass - he was the #1 draft pick - he is the once in a generation QB talent.

 
Lets take a closer look at how DeSean Jackson was used and how he will affect Nick Foles.

Several posters here have wanted to point out how the loss of DeSean Jackson will hurt Foles. I don't think so....

DeSean Jackson - career best years - 82-1332-9.

So did DeSean Jackson make Nick Foles? Or did Nick Foles make DeSean Jackson? Before Nick Foles - Jackson's best year was 62-1156-9. So who is the reason DeSean Jackson caught 20 more balls and 200 yards more than he ever has in his career? Don't tell me Chip Kelly - we have already noted how this offense is super RUN happy - and Chip Kelly does not play QB - this is all on Nick Foles.
Before Foles Jackson never played a full season other than his rookie year. I think that has more to do with the numbers than Foles. Per game, Jackson had 2 seasons just as good, perhaps better than his season with Foles.
 
The way I see it, Luck gets the benefit of the doubt based partially on what he's already shown (which I agree with several people above, is not as good as perceived) but more based on what he will presumably become given all his potentially elite attributes and his pedigree.

With Foles, I think it'll take another year of good production (even allowing for a little bit of a dip next season) to get past the lingering perception that the Eagles aren't fully committed to him (despite their more recent statements of support for him) and/or that he was a one year wonder.

It's the difference between a guy who we've been thinking about as elite before he was even eligible for the draft, and a guy who had a decent grade (3rd round) but doesn't sit as comfortably with the pedigree/prototype thinking that predominates dynasty. There's usually a very real delay in recognizing the legitimacy of on-field production for non-pedigree players.

I don't see a huge gap between them (I have both as top 5 dynasty QBs), and I think Foles is a great combination of legitimate talent and a strong offensive staff. If you're going off of actual production, on what basis would there be a big gap? Luck has played in 32 games and Foles in 20, so we can't be sure who either guy is going to be yet; the main thing that separates them is pedigree and draft grade as far as I can tell.

 
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Too anyone who has Luck in any of my leagues. If you want to trade him to me straight up for Foles I will go out and get Foles for you.

 
jurb26 said:
jesseasi said:
Lets take a closer look at how DeSean Jackson was used and how he will affect Nick Foles.

Several posters here have wanted to point out how the loss of DeSean Jackson will hurt Foles. I don't think so....

DeSean Jackson - career best years - 82-1332-9.

So did DeSean Jackson make Nick Foles? Or did Nick Foles make DeSean Jackson? Before Nick Foles - Jackson's best year was 62-1156-9. So who is the reason DeSean Jackson caught 20 more balls and 200 yards more than he ever has in his career? Don't tell me Chip Kelly - we have already noted how this offense is super RUN happy - and Chip Kelly does not play QB - this is all on Nick Foles.
Before Foles Jackson never played a full season other than his rookie year. I think that has more to do with the numbers than Foles. Per game, Jackson had 2 seasons just as good, perhaps better than his season with Foles.
He had career high's in rec/gm and yds/gm in '13 and the only year he topped his TDs/gm was back in '09. That was the only year close to what he put up in '13; and in 2009 the Eagles were 10th in the league in pass attempts and only 27th in the league in '13.

2009 4.1 rec/gm 77.1 yds/gm 0.600 TD/gm

2013 5.1 rec/gm 83.3 yds/gm 0.563 TD/gm

You could argue '09 was better going strictly by the TDs, but I don't see a 2nd season that was close than '13.

 
Amazing facts about Foles:

- had one less TD than Brady's highest in his first 7 seasons - in less than 11 full games.

- had a higher completion than Brady in his first 7 seasons.

 
Amazing facts about Foles:

- had one less TD than Brady's highest in his first 7 seasons - in less than 11 full games.

- had a higher completion than Brady in his first 7 seasons.
I was going to put up the numbers for Brady, Manning ect, but I didn't think it would be fair to compare them across eras. That was a decade ago. You have to be careful with that. We don't know what those guys would do in todays game (well kind of).
 
Amazing facts about Foles:

- had one less TD than Brady's highest in his first 7 seasons - in less than 11 full games.

- had a higher completion than Brady in his first 7 seasons.
I was going to put up the numbers for Brady, Manning ect, but I didn't think it would be fair to compare them across eras. That was a decade ago. You have to be careful with that. We don't know what those guys would do in todays game (well kind of).
:goodposting:

Also, Foles' pass-defense SOS last year was arguably the easiest schedule any QB has faced in the history of the league.

 
We should probably talk about how Russel Wilson is better too. You know, he won a Super Bowl and stuff.
I'm open to make it a 'free for all' and add Wilson, Griffin and Tannehill to the discussion if you guys want. Or Luck vs all 4 since he's the gold standard. That sounds cool to me. There isn't much to talk about outside of draft prospects anyway. Like this post if you'd rather that. Comment if you'd prefer a free for all or a handicap match.
That was meant to be a bit tongue-in-cheek. Wilson is a good QB on a great team. Foles is a ? QB on an up-tempo team that runs to set-up the pass. Luck looks like he will be a great QB on a team that wants to control the clock and had DHB as their #2 WR for much of the season. I mean, you might as well throw Dalton in the mix while you're at it; another guy in a situation different from the other 3 who's put up good fantasy numbers.

As some others have said, Foles probably has a better chance of putting up top 5 numbers next year; Luck has a better chance of still putting up top 10 numbers 5 years from now.

 
jurb26 said:
jesseasi said:
Lets take a closer look at how DeSean Jackson was used and how he will affect Nick Foles.

Several posters here have wanted to point out how the loss of DeSean Jackson will hurt Foles. I don't think so....

DeSean Jackson - career best years - 82-1332-9.

So did DeSean Jackson make Nick Foles? Or did Nick Foles make DeSean Jackson? Before Nick Foles - Jackson's best year was 62-1156-9. So who is the reason DeSean Jackson caught 20 more balls and 200 yards more than he ever has in his career? Don't tell me Chip Kelly - we have already noted how this offense is super RUN happy - and Chip Kelly does not play QB - this is all on Nick Foles.
Before Foles Jackson never played a full season other than his rookie year. I think that has more to do with the numbers than Foles. Per game, Jackson had 2 seasons just as good, perhaps better than his season with Foles.
He had career high's in rec/gm and yds/gm in '13 and the only year he topped his TDs/gm was back in '09. That was the only year close to what he put up in '13; and in 2009 the Eagles were 10th in the league in pass attempts and only 27th in the league in '13.2009 4.1 rec/gm 77.1 yds/gm 0.600 TD/gm

2013 5.1 rec/gm 83.3 yds/gm 0.563 TD/gm

You could argue '09 was better going strictly by the TDs, but I don't see a 2nd season that was close than '13.
The problem with this is Jackson missed 1.5 games in 09, he didn't play at all the second half vs. Wash in a game. His per game average that year was 79.7/0.62. Also, he didn't play past the 1st quarter in another game in 10 vs. Atl, where he was tearing them to pieces. So his per game numbers look like 79.6/0.45. Call it nitpicking if you want but this notion that Foles made Jackson is absurd IMO. Even if you want to say his 13 season was better, it's clearly not substantially better to the point that we can say Foles made Jackson. At worst, he has 2 other season in the same vicinity. From my perspective, 09 was clearly the best season. 10 and 13 are close with 13 getting a slight edge. It's worth noting that Jackson also scored a TD on the ground in both 09 and 10. So, from a fantasy standpoint both seasons were better per game.

One last thing to point out, as this really is about Foles not Jackson. Jackson was the clear leader in targets for Philly last year, 126. The next closest was Cooper at 84, then McCoy at 65. It's pretty clear that Jackson was the focal point when Philly passed the ball. I'm not sure how losing a guy who was your clear focal point and a proven producer, for multiple seasons, is a good thing for any offense. Maybe I'm just super critical, though.

 
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Unless there is a dramatic change in offensive game plans, I go Foles.

He averaged 2.5 pts more per game and finished 3rd in our league vs. 9th for Luck. I think this difference will continue and possibly get bigger with the addition of Sproles and getting Maclin back.

He is several rounds cheaper.

 

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