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Official Davante Adams - Packers WR, Dynasty & Redraft

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49 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

My opinion is that the Packers do not bring Adams back unless he is willing to sign a team friendly deal similar to what Nelson did with his second contract and Cobb did with his most recent one (although Cobb is now at a point where he is one of the highest paid WRs in the league- 8th in 2017). 

Next year Cobb and Nelson stand to be the 8th and 9th highest paid WRs in the league (12.5 mil average each). The only other team with 2 Wrs in the top 15 is Denver with DT at  10 and Sanders at 13. 

Adams' new contract should at least pay him like a WR2, maybe even a WR1. Rodgers also needs a new contract; his is up after 2018. Clay Matthews makes a heck of a lot of money next year as well.

My point is the Packers just can't commit more money to their WRs when they are paying their top two guys 25 million dollars next season and need to lock up their QB for another large contract- likely making him the highest paid QB in the league. 

Adams is gone unless he wants to sign for 3 million or something, and he's worth more. I don't blame him for chasing money elsewhere. He's likely to get 6-8 million a season. GB cannot afford that. They have Geronimo, who they like a lot. They also have some promising youth on the roster which they don't need now but could step it up. They likely take a WR round 2-3 next year with a higher draft pick, who could turn out to be a Nelson replacement. 

We have seen other pretty good WRs leave GB and go on to just completely fizzle out: Javon Walker, Greg Jennings, James Jones. Adams likely is added to that list. He benefits greatly from Rodgers. His dynasty value depends on where he goes; if it's a team like Jacksonville, might as well just sell now if you can. It's a crap shoot. 

If I had Adams in dynasty I'd probably try to sell if I could

I try not to be negative on these boards but this is one of the worst posts I have ever seen. I don't think you got anything right.

Adams is the future #1 receiver for the Packers for the next 5-10 years (if he isn't already - he drew Rhodes all game against MIN, not Nelson) ... he's not going anywhere.  Given his age, I would take him in a vacuum over the other two any day of the week. Cobb hasn't proven he can play elite at the slot, let alone outside (where the big boys play!).  Adams' talent, size, and athleticism is substantially more valuable in the NFL than what Cobb brings to the table. And (obviously) he's EIGHT years younger than Nelson. 

Both Nelson and Cobb have their deals expiring in 2018.  Cutting either one results in massive cap savings (Cobb - $9.5M,  Nelson - $10M+) with relatively modest dead money hits ($2-$3M each).  One of them seems likely to get released next year to free up space for Adams' extension.  Nelson is on the wrong side of 30 and Cobb hasn't lived up to his contract.  Since Nelson is 32, though, and Adams has essentially taken over his duties, Nelson is probably the odd man out. That said, they do have the cap space to carry all three (even with a new deal for Adams) and could let both older WRs go the next year (while drafting younger replacements) and get MASSIVE compensatory picks back. Spending essentially $10M for a 3rd round pick is a decent deal, and you get their production for another year.  It's historically unlikely for an NFL to do so, but I could see them carrying all three at big cap hits for one year.

The fact that you think Adams is gone unless he signs for $3M is ludicrous. The guy is going to get paid $10M+/year by the Packers and be our #1 receiver for the next decade. He was a top draft pick, top collegiate producer, and has developed into a top NFL receiver. He's going to get paid and is not going anywhere.

Comparing Allison to Adams is insane. The guy is not within three tiers of talent, draft status, or production at any level of the game. Allison is a replacement level player, at best.

Edited by Phenomena
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45 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

My opinion is that the Packers do not bring Adams back unless he is willing to sign a team friendly deal similar to what Nelson did with his second contract and Cobb did with his most recent one (although Cobb is now at a point where he is one of the highest paid WRs in the league- 8th in 2017). 

Next year Cobb and Nelson stand to be the 8th and 9th highest paid WRs in the league (12.5 mil average each). The only other team with 2 Wrs in the top 15 is Denver with DT at  10 and Sanders at 13. 

Adams' new contract should at least pay him like a WR2, maybe even a WR1. Rodgers also needs a new contract; his is up after 2018. Clay Matthews makes a heck of a lot of money next year as well.

My point is the Packers just can't commit more money to their WRs when they are paying their top two guys 25 million dollars next season and need to lock up their QB for another large contract- likely making him the highest paid QB in the league. 

Adams is gone unless he wants to sign for 3 million or something, and he's worth more. I don't blame him for chasing money elsewhere. He's likely to get 6-8 million a season. GB cannot afford that. They have Geronimo, who they like a lot. They also have some promising youth on the roster which they don't need now but could step it up. They likely take a WR round 2-3 next year with a higher draft pick, who could turn out to be a Nelson replacement. 

We have seen other pretty good WRs leave GB and go on to just completely fizzle out: Javon Walker, Greg Jennings, James Jones. Adams likely is added to that list. He benefits greatly from Rodgers. His dynasty value depends on where he goes; if it's a team like Jacksonville, might as well just sell now if you can. It's a crap shoot. 

If I had Adams in dynasty I'd probably try to sell if I could

I disagree.  Jordy is on the downward slope and while still very good he's on the wrong side of 30.  Cobb is just a slot guy and while looking better than last year is a good but not great WR.  I think the last thing the Packers can afford to do is let a young weapon go especially with Rodgers age.  They don't have time to break in another young weapon. Honestly I think Adams has looked better than Jordy so far this year.  Cobb is the odd man out IMO.  I know this wouldn't be a popular amongst Packer fans but I'd rather lose Jordy than Adams if it comes down to those two.  He'll be 33 next season...ancient for a WR.

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5 minutes ago, Phenomena said:

I try not to be negative on these boards but this is one of the worst posts I have ever seen. I don't think you got anything right.

Adams is the future #1 receiver for the Packers for the next 5-10 years (if he isn't already - he drew Rhodes all game against MIN, not Nelson) ... he's not going anywhere.  I would take him in a vacuum over the other two any day of the week. Cobb hasn't proven he can play elite at the slot, let alone outside (where the big boys play!).  Adams' talent, size, and athleticism is substantially more valuable in the NFL than what Cobb brings to the table.

Both Nelson and Cobb have their deals expiring in 2018.  Cutting either one results in massive cap savings (Cobb - $9.5M,  Nelson - $10M+) with relatively modest dead money hits ($2-$3M each).  One of them seems likely to get released next year.  Nelson is on the wrong side of 30 and Cobb hasn't lived up to his contract.  Since Nelson is 32, though, and Adams has essentially taken over his duties, Nelson is probably the odd man out. That said, they do have the cap space to carry all three (even with a new deal for Adams) and could let both WRs go the next year (while drafting younger replacements) and get massive compensatory picks back.

The fact that you think Adams is gone unless he signs for $3M is ludicrous. The guy is going to get paid $10M+/year by the Packers and be our #1 receiver for the next decade. He was a top draft pick, top collegiate producer, and has developed into a top NFL receiver. He's going to get paid and is not going anywhere.

Comparing Allison to Adams is insane. The guy is not within three tiers of talent, draft status, or production at any level of the game. Allison is a replacement level player, at best.

Nelson and Cobb make a combined 25 million next year - fact

Rodgers needs a new contract next year - fact

Matthews is taking up a large amount of money next year - fact (I believe 15 million)


If you wish to debate why Adams is so good that GB deserves to dedicate even more money to their WR position I'd be glad to discuss that, but the numbers don't add up. You think he' sgoing to be paid 10 million... so you think GB should dedicate 20% of it's salary cap to 3 WRs? And then probably another 15% to Rodgers, and 10% to Matthews... so almost 50% of GB's salary toward 5 players... not smart and not likely to happen

Nelson is likely gone after next season, or signed to a more friendly deal. Cobb is only 27... and he is likely resigned after next season or even before next season. 

What GB will be willing to pay Adams will not be equal to his value on the open market.


And I did not compare Allison to Adams. I said they like Allison and he shows promise. IMO adams walks, Cobb resigned. GB drafts a WR round 2 next year to fill Adams' role and to be the future WR1. If TT can draft any position, it's WR.

 

 

Edited by Dr. Dan

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2 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:


If you wish to debate why Adams is so good that GB deserves to dedicate even more money to their WR position I'd be glad to discuss that, but the numbers don't add up. You think he' sgoing to be paid 10 million... so you think GB should dedicate 20% of it's salary cap to 3 WRs? And then probably another 15% to Rodgers, and 15% to Matthews... so 50% of GB's salary toward 5 players... not smart. 

Nelson is likely gone after next season, or signed to a more friendly deal. Cobb is only 27... and he is likely resigned after next season or even before next season. 

What GB will be willing to pay Adams will not be equal to his value on the open market.


 

 

 

I strongly disagree with this and if true would be a huge mistake by TT.  Adams is their future not Cobb and certainly not Jordy.  Adams has looked the part of a #1 so they should pay him and look to make their WR cuts elsewhere.  I agree it's not smart to lock up that much of the cap in the WR position that's why Jordy and Cobb need to rework their deals or face being cut.  It sucks but the nature of the NFL. 

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10 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

Nelson and Cobb make a combined 25 million next year - fact

Rodgers needs a new contract next year - fact

Matthews is taking up a large amount of money next year - fact (I believe 15 million)


If you wish to debate why Adams is so good that GB deserves to dedicate even more money to their WR position I'd be glad to discuss that, but the numbers don't add up. You think he' sgoing to be paid 10 million... so you think GB should dedicate 20% of it's salary cap to 3 WRs? And then probably another 15% to Rodgers, and 15% to Matthews... so 50% of GB's salary toward 5 players... not smart. 

Nelson is likely gone after next season, or signed to a more friendly deal. Cobb is only 27... and he is likely resigned after next season or even before next season. 

What GB will be willing to pay Adams will not be equal to his value on the open market.


And I did not compare Allison to Adams. I said they like Allison and he shows promise. IMO adams walks, Cobb resigned. GB drafts a WR round 2 next year to fill Adams' role and to be the future WR1. 

 

 

You're just really far off, man.  Adams has beaten top NFL corners and produced at a near-elite level for the last couple of years.  I may have actually sold him low - he could get $12M+/year.  

https://gnb.247sports.com/Bolt/Green-Bay-Packers-Davante-Adams-on-pace-to-earn-huge-contract-af-108762417

No, I don't expect them to devote 20% of the cap to 3 WRs.  I expect them to cut Nelson since they both play the same WR1 position on the team. Cutting Nelson saves $10M that will directly go to paying Adams.  This is not rocket science. Nelson is 32 and they serve the same function on the team. Adams is 24 and was drafted to be Nelson's replacement. After a high-draft pick lives up to all expectations you don't let them leave in free agency. What are you smoking???

Rodgers needing a new contract is mostly irrelevant - his cap number is already $20M.  That's only going to change by ~$5M/year. And the cap space per team has increased by more than that over the last couple years.

Edited by Phenomena

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If Adams is not resigned, I am betting he winds up lining up against them twice a year for the next 5 years snagging darts from Mitch Trubisky.

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1 hour ago, Phenomena said:

After a high-draft pick lives up to all expectations you don't let them leave in free agency.

Greg Jennings, Javon Walker (left after a pro bowl season I believe), James Jones :shrug: 

I agree, they should try to keep Adams, but I disagree in them cutting Nelson. That garners a "what are you smoking" response from me. So we are obviously on complete polar opposites of this scenario and will just have to disagree and move on. You are heavily invested in Adams I take it, emotionally attached at the very least, thus justifying spending 12 million on a single WR. TT has never done that. Even with Nelson, one of their best WRs in the last decade, only stands to make 12.75 million in the last year of his deal. Cobb signed a 4 year 40 million deal back in 2015, which is the best contract Thompson has ever given one of his own WRs after their rookie year expired. 

I am not so sure Adams gets anything offered higher than what Cobb got. 1. I don't think GB can afford it and 2. I don't think they will pay that much to 3 WRs unless Adams' contract is very back loaded like Cobbs was (first year 4-5 million last year 13 million). If they can structure Adams' contract to be friendly in 18 and then balloon more in 19 when Nelson leaves, then I think it happens because then it makes sense. I see that as a very realistic scenario and the only way Adams stays from a financial perspective. And that's what I meant when I said that he should sign for 3 million---> I was too low in that number but what I meant was make a small amount next year and then have it grow from there. I don't see them paying 3 WRs 35 million dollars next year. They may keep Nelson and Cobb at 25 million and pay Adams 4-5. That is a little easier to swallow, and then Adams gets Nelson's salary the following season essentially. 

 

Edited by Dr. Dan

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1 hour ago, ChuckLiddell said:

If Adams is not resigned, I am betting he winds up lining up against them twice a year for the next 5 years snagging darts from Mitch Trubisky.

I think this is very possible. Players often sign within the division. Chicago has had a mess at WR and would likely be willing to open the check book for a WR who is established himself as an up and coming WR. I don't see them trying to draft someone after Kevin White burned them so bad. They'd be the most likely to throw an insane amount of money at a guy like Adams. 

Another likely 2 scenarios IMO are Buffalo and Jacksonville. Buffalo is likely losing Jordan Matthews. Jacksonville is likely losing Allen Robinson and Marquis Lee; all they will have is Hurns. 

If you are in a dynasty league, and you are 100% convinced GB is going to resign Adams, you have to entertain the possibility that he isn't. Look at Ted Thompson's history of paying up for top WRs. Adams is likely the #1 WR on the market (assuming Watkins and Hopkins are resigned); the big names will be Allen Robinson and Jarvis Landry. One could argue Adams is better than both. At worst he's the #3 WR on the market, which usually still brings a pretty penny. So let's entertain the idea that Adams is not resigned by GB... where is he likely to end up? Early favorites, IMO, are Chicago, Jacksonville, Buffalo.

So best case scenario is Ted Thompson resigns an impending FA WR to the biggest deal he's ever given a WR. Worst case scenario is he ends up signing for big money on a team such as Chicago, Jacksonville, Buffalo. Talk about boom or bust... If there's one thing we all can agree on is we don't know what will happen. We can speculate on what should and what makes sense, but if we knew what would happen this discussion wouldn't even be occurring.

The thing with dynasty is you have to weigh the pros and the cons of a particular player and make your decision from there. The pros of Adams is that he's locked up with one of the best QBs ever for the next 5 years. Thus being a legitimate WR1 for the next 5 seasons. The cons for Adams is that he is not resigned and potentially ends up on a bad team with a QB who is not named Aaron Rodgers. 

As I said above, it's my opinion that if Adams can agree to a 4 year 50 million dollar deal, but 2018 he's making 4.5 million and it balloons from there, then it makes perfect sense. If not, he's in different colors next year 

Edited by Dr. Dan

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1 hour ago, Dr. Dan said:

Greg Jennings, Javon Walker (left after a pro bowl season I believe), James Jones :shrug: 

 

Didn't walker basically beg GB to trade him and said he didn't want to play there anymore?  I thought they resigned James jones too after his first contract.  Maybe I am off there but they both seem like bad examples.

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Just now, mozzy84 said:

Didn't walker basically beg GB to trade him and said he didn't want to play there anymore?  I thought they resigned James jones too after his first contract.  Maybe I am off there but they both seem like bad examples.

No and No

Walker held out after his best season with GB and threatened to retire if he didn't get a new contract. Thanks to Drew Rosenhaus. He eventually caved and came back, injured his ACL. The next year he was traded to Denver, signed a 5 year 40 million deal and then 2 years a 6 year 55 million deal from Oakland after being cut. Maybe not a perfect example, but when you look at what he got in Denver and Oakland, GB knew 1- he wasn't worth the headache and 2- he wasn't worth the money. Adams has been a star employee during his time in GB and is in no way comparable to Walker from a personality standpoint. But, it was an example of a WR that GB let walk in spite of paying him money, and he fell flat on his face- the point I'm making here is that it's the QB that makes the WR in GB, not the other way around


James Jones left after his first 3 year contract to go to the Raiders, failed, and came crawling back. 

https://overthecap.com/player/james-jones/1110

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10 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

No and No

Walker held out after his best season with GB and threatened to retire if he didn't get a new contract. Thanks to Drew Rosenhaus. He eventually caved and came back, injured his ACL. The next year he was traded to Denver, signed a 5 year 40 million deal and then 2 years a 6 year 55 million deal from Oakland after being cut. Maybe not a perfect example, but when you look at what he got in Denver and Oakland, GB knew 1- he wasn't worth the headache and 2- he wasn't worth the money. Adams has been a star employee during his time in GB and is in no way comparable to Walker from a personality standpoint. But, it was an example of a WR that GB let walk in spite of paying him money, and he fell flat on his face- the point I'm making here is that it's the QB that makes the WR in GB, not the other way around


James Jones left after his first 3 year contract to go to the Raiders, failed, and came crawling back. 

https://overthecap.com/player/james-jones/1110

Gotcha, thanks for clarifying.   I agree Farve and Rogers have made some average receivers look good, that said I am in the camp of Jordy and Adams are real good players no matter where they would play.   Would I rather have Rogers throwing to my FF receivers, yes of course, that said I don't think a person needs to bail on Adams for fear of him going elsewhere unless you get a deal you really like. He seems like a much better player than say Walker or Jones IMO.

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1 hour ago, Dr. Dan said:

Greg Jennings, Javon Walker (left after a pro bowl season I believe), James Jones :shrug: 

I agree, they should try to keep Adams, but I disagree in them cutting Nelson. That garners a "what are you smoking" response from me. So we are obviously on complete polar opposites of this scenario and will just have to disagree and move on. You are heavily invested in Adams I take it, emotionally attached at the very least, thus justifying spending 12 million on a single WR. TT has never done that. Even with Nelson, one of their best WRs in the last decade, only stands to make 12.75 million in the last year of his deal. Cobb signed a 4 year 40 million deal back in 2015, which is the best contract Thompson has ever given one of his own WRs after their rookie year expired. 

I am not so sure Adams gets anything offered higher than what Cobb got. 1. I don't think GB can afford it and 2. I don't think they will pay that much to 3 WRs unless Adams' contract is very back loaded like Cobbs was (first year 4-5 million last year 13 million). If they can structure Adams' contract to be friendly in 18 and then balloon more in 19 when Nelson leaves, then I think it happens because then it makes sense. I see that as a very realistic scenario and the only way Adams stays from a financial perspective. And that's what I meant when I said that he should sign for 3 million---> I was too low in that number but what I meant was make a small amount next year and then have it grow from there. I don't see them paying 3 WRs 35 million dollars next year. They may keep Nelson and Cobb at 25 million and pay Adams 4-5. That is a little easier to swallow, and then Adams gets Nelson's salary the following season essentially. 

 

These are horrible examples. Jennings makes my point - not yours. He performed great under his rookie deal and was extended to another contract - that's exactly what you do for highly drafted players that perform well.  And that's exactly what will happen to Adams. Walker was a malcontent and tore his ACL. And they were offered a 2nd round pick to him, which is insane. Use a guy for 4 years extremely cheaply then get basically the same pick back to let him walk? Holy jesus - sign me up for that for every player! You'd have a crazy amount of highly drafted talent after a few years. They drafted Greg Jennings with that exact pick the next year.  They let Walker go and got an exact replacement for 1/10th the cost (considering Jennings was on his rookie deal). That was an amazing deal.

I'm not invested in Adams at all and I'm about as objective person as you will find on these boards. But this is such a straight forward situation that it doesn't warrant any other opinions on what could happen. You don't let highly drafted, top talent walk in free agency.  Adams is going to get $10-$12M/year from the Packers and one of Nelson or Cobb will be gone.  Nelson at 32 is way more likely, especially considering Adams has taken over the #1 WR role.

Edited by Phenomena

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I think its the height of hubris to pretend to know definitively what the Packers are going to do and to bad mouth other posters because their opinions differ. Cobb & Jordy have high salaries but could easily restructured/extended or be cut. Jordy is not that old at 33 next year, especially considering he is still producing. Adams hasn't even had a 1K yard season yet (although he came close at 997) and while he looks the part again this year he has not produced for "years," unless you are counting 2016 more than once. Jennings isn't really a good data point on if Adams will be extended, Adams numbers through their first few seasons doesn't compare at all. Jordy is probably a better comparison who also took a few seasons to get going and his first extension was much more modest than the $14M a year numbers that article guesses at.

 

My guess is that they actually keep all three, with Cobb & Jordy restructuring/extending and Adams resigning for a small discount. Of the three, I would say Cobb is the most expendable, but for some reason, the Packers seem to love him and he's still pretty young at 28 next year (by contrast Jennings was 30 when they let him walk.) Jordy will retire a Packer, IMO, he could easily take a paycut to stick around the last few seasons like Edelman just did for example.

Edited by Buckna
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1 hour ago, Phenomena said:

These are horrible examples. Jennings makes my point - not yours. He performed great under his rookie deal and was extended to another contract - that's exactly what you do for highly drafted players that perform well.  And that's exactly what will happen to Adams. Walker was a malcontent and tore his ACL. And they were offered a 2nd round pick to him, which is insane. Use a guy for 4 years extremely cheaply then get basically the same pick back to let him walk? Holy jesus - sign me up for that for every player! You'd have a crazy amount of highly drafted talent after a few years. They drafted Greg Jennings with that exact pick the next year.  They let Walker go and got an exact replacement for 1/10th the cost (considering Jennings was on his rookie deal). That was an amazing deal.

I'm not invested in Adams at all and I'm about as objective person as you will find on these boards. But this is such a straight forward situation that it doesn't warrant any other opinions on what could happen. You don't let highly drafted, top talent walk in free agency.  Adams is going to get $10-$12M/year from the Packers and one of Nelson or Cobb will be gone.  Nelson at 32 is way more likely, especially considering Adams has taken over the #1 WR role.

My point is that Adams is not as good with another QB as he is Rodgers... GB can put almost any WR out there and have them do pretty well. It's similar to NE. Edelman would be a nobody on another team. Wes Welker was a nobody on Miami. The same could be said for Nelson. I dont' think he's a WR1 on another team (WR2 sure, but no where near as good). Jennings left for money and was terrible. 

I don't think GB needs to spend large amounts of money at WR, because they are exceptionally good at maximizing the talent of the WRs they have and scripting plays to match their strengths. They don't need a top WR... they do well with many very good WRs. 

 

With regards to the bolded... Adams was a second round pick and if they let him walk and he signs for an exorbitant amount of money, GB could get a 3rd round compensation pick for him. Use a guy 4 years and get rid of him for almost the same pick... can we sign you up for that? 

Edited by Dr. Dan

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I just wanted to echo what Phenomena is saying about how the Vikings handled the Packers WR.

Rhodes was on Adams for most of the game and he generally covers the opposing teams biggest threat.

Mike ZImmer knows how to handle WR and they treated Adams as Green Bays top WR threat based on the coverage.

Some Vikings fans were complaining about Nelson being covered by Waynes who opposing teams tend to pick on during the game.

The chemistry between Rodgers and Nelson shouldn't be overlooked, and for that reason I think they keep Nelson, but Adams seems to have moved ahead of him as far as who opponents consider to be the most dangerous of their weapons.

eta - looking at the market share of targets Adams has led the Packers this year with 23% and Nelson is second with 21% over 6 games.

Edited by Biabreakable
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I don't pretend to know what the Packers will do this offseason, but I have followed this team closely for a long time.  This is my best guess what will happen.  

1.  Adams signs a 4 year 45 million dollar deal with Packers.  

2.  Packers ask Cobb to restructure.  Cobb either signs a new deal averaging between $5-7M per or he gets released.  (Edelman just resigned for 2 years at 5.5 per)

3.  Jordy Nelson either plays out his contract year, or gets restructured. If he restructures, he will lose no year 1 money, and more likely add to it.  But his yearly average will drop so that years 2 and 3 will be more at the 5/6 million/year level.  Ensuring that he retires a Packer.  

4.  Packers draft a WR in Rd 2 in 2018.  

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12 hours ago, Kitrick Taylor said:

I don't pretend to know what the Packers will do this offseason, but I have followed this team closely for a long time.  This is my best guess what will happen.  

1.  Adams signs a 4 year 45 million dollar deal with Packers.  

2.  Packers ask Cobb to restructure.  Cobb either signs a new deal averaging between $5-7M per or he gets released.  (Edelman just resigned for 2 years at 5.5 per)

3.  Jordy Nelson either plays out his contract year, or gets restructured. If he restructures, he will lose no year 1 money, and more likely add to it.  But his yearly average will drop so that years 2 and 3 will be more at the 5/6 million/year level.  Ensuring that he retires a Packer.  

4.  Packers draft a WR in Rd 2 in 2018.  

Yeah I think this is a good scenario. Very likely. 

I want to clarify what I was saying above... I think Adams should be resigned. I think Rodgers makes him a great WR, but he is talented; can't just throw anyone out there (see Janis).

However, I don't like committing 25% of our cap to 3 WRs. So I think Cobb needs to be extended/restructured. Nelson could just play out the last year (I recall him saying somewhere he is likely retiring after next season?). Adams should be resigned but first year making 4-5 million, increasing to 12-15 by the end of his contract. GB drafts a WR in round 2-3. That is the most affordable way to do it. I would love to see Adams back, he is the biggest play maker in the WRs group - not discounting Nelson but he's clearly lost a step and Adams has filled that role. 

If he wants to get greedy, I don't see him back in GB. They don't have a history of over-paying their own. I wouldn't blame him for getting the most money he could... it's a dangerous sport and he already had a scare this year. 
 

Edited by Dr. Dan

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What Davante Adams has done recently is pretty impressive. He is playing at a very high level and overcoming whatever talent limitations Hundley has. He has now had back to back very good weeks against two good defenses and that double move he pulled off last night and run after the catch was sick. 

I really think he could be a top10 wide receiver on fantasy draft boards next year with Rodgers back. He clearly has supplanted Nelson as the Pack's number one receiver and that was becoming evident even with Aaron at the helm but is even more obvious without him.

 

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5 minutes ago, fruity pebbles said:

He’s a free agent after this season. I’m wondering if he’s priced himself out of Green Bay. They have a lot tied up in receiver already.

He'd be the last WR Ted Thompson would let go. He's their only really good option at outside receiver going forward - Nelson can still play, but I expect a move to the slot (where he's played very well before) full time once he loses another step, which would make Cobb even more expendable. And Nelson will probably give the Packers the bigger hometown discount as well (both contracts were pretty team friendly) - I think he'll want to finish his career in GB and I don't see why the Pack wouldn't let him. 

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There’s gonna be a team willing to pay him 14 million per year. He’s gonna have to take a hometown discount to stay cause I can’t see the Packers going that high.

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34 minutes ago, fruity pebbles said:

He’s a free agent after this season. I’m wondering if he’s priced himself out of Green Bay. They have a lot tied up in receiver already.

There are a ton of ways to make it work.  They can re-work either deal/both Cobb and/or Nelson to clear up money.  They can cut Cobb for just a $3.25M hit (from a $12.75M cap number) or Nelson for just $2.3M ($12.55M).  So either way they can clear up at minimum $9.5M in 2018 for him.   Even if they don't the first year of a deal is unlikely to be more than a $6M or so cap number and they currently project to have $35M in cap space, with the cap expected to rise even more.  Neither Cobb nor Nelson is signed for beyond 2018.

If they want to keep Adams there are zero financial reasons they cannot.

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11 hours ago, Hankmoody said:

There are a ton of ways to make it work.  They can re-work either deal/both Cobb and/or Nelson to clear up money.  They can cut Cobb for just a $3.25M hit (from a $12.75M cap number) or Nelson for just $2.3M ($12.55M).  So either way they can clear up at minimum $9.5M in 2018 for him.   Even if they don't the first year of a deal is unlikely to be more than a $6M or so cap number and they currently project to have $35M in cap space, with the cap expected to rise even more.  Neither Cobb nor Nelson is signed for beyond 2018.

If they want to keep Adams there are zero financial reasons they cannot.

This. Sure $14M sounds like it would be above what the Packers usually have paid their top wideouts which was just north of $10M but once you adjust that number for cap inflation it's pretty much on par. Thompson isn't going to let his best receiver walk because of one or two millions base salary when they have plenty of cap space. The only thing that might scare him off is a crazy high amount of guaranteed money, but in this case they could franchise him and draft a replacement in the 2018 or 2019 draft. 

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Not surprisingly, ruled out for Sat night per multiple sources including Schefty on the twitter...

Adam Schefter‏Verified account @AdamSchefter 2h2 hours ago

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No surprise, but Packers now have ruled out WR Davante Adams from Saturday’s game vs Vikings.

Edited by whiskey7

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thanks for helping get me to the championship game, Davante. Get well soon.

 

I think he's proven this year that he can be, and is, a WR1 (he's WR#6 in my non-ppr league). I hope the Packers keep him around since it seems Nelson is definitely on his way out to pasture.

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I don’t think we see him the last week either. Team would be wise to save him from himself.  A concussion again week 17 and his own FA value goes down with him as injury risk.

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8 minutes ago, runner06 said:

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/12/29/packers-give-davante-adams-massive-contract-extension/

I think a small bump for his dynasty value now that he's resigned with the Packers.

Agreed. With Nelson aging, Cobb likely gone, and Rodgers back next year, it is hard to envision a better scenario for Adams.

While I think he is likely a second round pick in drafts next summer, this could propel him to the end of round #1.

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18 minutes ago, runner06 said:

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/12/29/packers-give-davante-adams-massive-contract-extension/

I think a small bump for his dynasty value now that he's resigned with the Packers.

Could be more than a small bump since I don't think non-Adams owners might realize how well he's played this year (top 5 WR ppg in my non-ppr leagues). Puts him solidly in the top 10 WRs in dynasty imo. 

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8 minutes ago, Ack88 said:

Agreed. With Nelson aging, Cobb likely gone, and Rodgers back next year, it is hard to envision a better scenario for Adams.

While I think he is likely a second round pick in drafts next summer, this could propel him to the end of round #1.

Agreed. You could see the transition this year from Jordy to Adams. He should be a mid-low WR1 as long as he's attached to Rodgers. 

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The Pack are a well run organization...for them to give him that much money is a real ringing endorsement of what they feel about him...Adams is only 25 and if Rodgers stays healthy he has a chance to become a mainstay top 10 fantasy WR...today was a real good day for Keeper and Dynasty owners of Adams...

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34 minutes ago, Boston said:

The Pack are a well run organization...for them to give him that much money is a real ringing endorsement of what they feel about him...Adams is only 25 and if Rodgers stays healthy he has a chance to become a mainstay top 10 fantasy WR...today was a real good day for Keeper and Dynasty owners of Adams...

Well run? Then explain no defense for a long time now.

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1 hour ago, Magic_Man said:

Well run? Then explain no defense for a long time now.

In the big scheme of the NFL the Packers are one of the better run franchises in recent history...they have their issues (like the D) but overall it is a very stable franchise...they are a legit playoff contender on a yearly basis...I do think they have some work to do to be a championship contender but they are not the type of team to throw money around foolishly... 

Edited by Boston

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2 minutes ago, Boston said:

In the big scheme of the NFL the Packers are one of the better run franchises in recent history...they have their issues (like the D) but overall it is a very stable franchise...they are a legit playoff contender on a yearly basis...I do think they have some work to do to be a championship contender but they are not the type of team to throw money around foolishly... 

Rodgers is a playoff contender. Without him, they stink

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On 12/29/2017 at 5:11 PM, dipandglide said:

Agreed. You could see the transition this year from Jordy to Adams. He should be a mid-low WR1 as long as he's attached to Rodgers. 

No offense but no you couldn't.  When A Rod is throwing the ball, Jordy is HIS guy.  Period.  Jordy is getting older (will be 33 next year) but he is still Rogers #1 target.  That said, Adams proved he is worth the contract here and a great guy to own. The one on the outside looking in is Cobb.  I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him cut when it is most advantageous to the team.

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9 minutes ago, fruity pebbles said:

Anybody given pause by his two concussions this season?

Figure the Packers had to do some due diligence before resigning him.
I don't feel too scared by the concussions with the contract extension that Adams just signed.

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13 minutes ago, Rookie_Whisperer said:

No offense but no you couldn't.  When A Rod is throwing the ball, Jordy is HIS guy.  Period.  Jordy is getting older (will be 33 next year) but he is still Rogers #1 target.  That said, Adams proved he is worth the contract here and a great guy to own. The one on the outside looking in is Cobb.  I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him cut when it is most advantageous to the team.

Disagree with the "Period" part of your post. ARod got hurt in the middle of week 7. Prior to the game Adams averaged 8.2 targets per game; Jordy averaged 7.6 targets. It is not a big enough sample size to deem who is the #1 WR but it was trending in Adams direction. This is not to say Jordy will not get his, but it is a worthy debate.

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4 minutes ago, Gawain said:

I don't feel too scared by the concussions with the contract extension that Adams just signed.

I have no concern about t eh concussions. Both were fluke plays bordering on illegal hits. 

 

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46 minutes ago, Rookie_Whisperer said:

No offense but no you couldn't.  When A Rod is throwing the ball, Jordy is HIS guy.  Period.  Jordy is getting older (will be 33 next year) but he is still Rogers #1 target.  That said, Adams proved he is worth the contract here and a great guy to own. The one on the outside looking in is Cobb.  I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him cut when it is most advantageous to the team.

Jordy could easily become the best slot WR. His connection with AR is uncanny. 

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1 hour ago, 32 Counter Pass said:

I have no concern about t eh concussions. Both were fluke plays bordering on illegal hits. 

 

I don't follow this logic? This isn't like a fluky injury and it heals, concussions have a lasting effect and are believed to be easier to next time. It should be a concern because the next time it could be a legal hit and some players have retired after having 3 or 4 in a couple year period and he is already half way there and we have no idea how concerned about it Adams is.

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For being a top 18 pick, it is awful quiet in here. I guess the story is: he's the top receiver for Rodgers and we have seen him score TDs so he is a super safe pick. I totally bought that as well, but I am starting to have some worries. Are we sure Adams is a Jordy Nelson and not a Randall Cobb/James Jones?

Jones and Cobb both had a big seasons mostly based on crazy high TD % but then were overdrafted. They left buyers disappointed when they could no longer sustain such an improbable TD %. All three had chances to shine in the absence of Jordy Nelson in 2015. Adams and Cobb fell on their faces. James Jones led the team with 800 yards and 8 TDs. I am nervous about Adams as the focal point of this passing game. 

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