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WR Davante Adams, LV (4 Viewers)

Andy Dufresne said:
cstu said:
Archer said:
Rodgers made Jennings, Nelson, and Cobb relevant didn't he?
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I don't remember ever being excited to start the Packers #3. Anyone have the numbers for the Packers starting #3 WR over the years?
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Seems like they blow up on random games which makes their total end of year stats look decent. But good luck guessing which week you should start 'em.
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Like James Jones in 2013 - 0 catches in week 1, explodes for 11/178 week 2.

 
I don't know how good Davante Adams will end up as a player. He showed flashes of his talent as a rookie, and generally, that's a very good sign. I personally think he'll be a very good WR in time. What I am very confident in saying is that Adams, and to a lesser extent Richard Rodgers, are going to have a negative impact on Jordy Nelson's and Randall Cobbs numbers. Adams and Rodgers were both rookies in 2014, and we're not really trusted, nor a big part of the game plans for a large chunk of the season. Rodgers locked on to Jordy and Cobb because everybody else was not good or learning their position. My best guess is that Adams will see 90+ targets in 2015. That's up from 66. Those will likely come from Jordys targets. Rodgers will probably see 70+ targets, and he'll get most from Quarless, and a few from Cobb.

Basically, I think the Packers are going to be a nightmare to defend in 2015. Aaron Rodgers is going to have quality veteran targets to spread around the field, and if Bulaga is back, watch out for Lacy too.

Take away Jordy? No problem, they will pepper Cobb and Adams with targets....

 
He's a stronger hold than Jordy Nelson was in his 2nd year.

He's a Wr4 until Nelson or a Cobb get hurt or leave. When that happens, he's a low WR1, high WR2.

 
Kitrick Taylor said:
He's a stronger hold than Jordy Nelson was in his 2nd year.

He's a Wr4 until Nelson or a Cobb get hurt or leave. When that happens, he's a low WR1, high WR2.
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I had to go back and look at Jordy's early career stats. I forgot how slow of a start he got, failing to reach 400 yards in his first 2 seasons and missing 600 yards in season 3... of course he broke out immensely in his 4th season with his career highs. As someone who is all-in on Davante in 2 dynasty leagues, I hope he turns into a #1 in the next 3-5 seasons. I'm cautiously optimistic. If he pans out as many suspect, he will be in his prime as Aaron Rodgers ages like a fine wine. His rookie stats don't indicate success but I guess in comparison to Nelson and Cobb's rookie years, he's shooting under par. I loved Davante last season in rookie drafts. I thought having the 6-10 picks in last season's draft was the ideal spot. As of now, that has yet to be answered.

 
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Rhythmdoctor said:
Kitrick Taylor said:
He's a stronger hold than Jordy Nelson was in his 2nd year.

He's a Wr4 until Nelson or a Cobb get hurt or leave. When that happens, he's a low WR1, high WR2.
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I had to go back and look at Jordy's early career stats. I forgot how slow of a start he got, failing to reach 400 yards in his first 2 seasons and missing 600 yards in season 3... of course he broke out immensely in his 4th season with his career highs. As someone who is all-in on Davante in 2 dynasty leagues, I hope he turns into a #1 in the next 3-5 seasons. I'm cautiously optimistic. If he pans out as many suspect, he will be in his prime as Aaron Rodgers ages like a fine wine. His rookie stats don't indicate success but I guess in comparison to Nelson and Cobb's rookie years, he's shooting under par. I loved Davante last season in rookie drafts. I thought having the 6-10 picks in last season's draft was the ideal spot. As of now, that has yet to be answered.
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The problem is that, barring injury to Nelson or Cobb, you're probably talking a minimum of three years until Adams becomes a regular. That's when Jordy's contract is up, and at age 33, perhaps the team will be ready to move on from him. Cobb has four years starting with 2015, but he'll only be 28 when his contract is up, so he's probably there for a long time.

As we all know, things move fast in the NFL and in three years, maybe Adams isn't as good as many expected; or the Packers may have other options; or the offense - including Rodgers - isn't as potent as it once was.

Just too many variables to have expectations in three years, again barring injury. Sounds strange, but despite his talent, Adams' landing spot may be among the worst possible. On another team, if he is really talented, he'd push his way up the totem pole.

 
Ketamine Dreams said:
I agree that he's a nice depth player. In short bench dynasty leagues he will be hard to hold onto
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It would have to be a pretty short bench. Just the potential of a Jordy or Cobb injury alone gives him short term value and while Cobb coming back ate into his long term value a bit as well, he still has talent and upside - for all we know Jordy is asked to move on in a season or two if the cap gets tight again.

 
Maybe Adams is the best receiver on the Packers team this season. He's got the draft pedigree. Ted Thompson knows how to draft wide receivers and he took Adams over Allen Robinson, Jarvis Landry, Donte Moncrief, and John Brown. What if Adams becomes an absolute stud? Just because there are two great receivers there already doesn't mean he can't rise to even or above them. Don't discount Adams' talent. As you said, things move fast in the NFL.

People said the same thing about Randall Cobb when he was a rookie. No opportunity. Here is a great discussion on Cobb from 2011.

https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?/topic/603903-wr-randall-cobb-really-worth-a-first-round-pick/

Adams might not get there this season. He might though.

 
zamboni said:
Rhythmdoctor said:
Kitrick Taylor said:
He's a stronger hold than Jordy Nelson was in his 2nd year.

He's a Wr4 until Nelson or a Cobb get hurt or leave. When that happens, he's a low WR1, high WR2.
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I had to go back and look at Jordy's early career stats. I forgot how slow of a start he got, failing to reach 400 yards in his first 2 seasons and missing 600 yards in season 3... of course he broke out immensely in his 4th season with his career highs. As someone who is all-in on Davante in 2 dynasty leagues, I hope he turns into a #1 in the next 3-5 seasons. I'm cautiously optimistic. If he pans out as many suspect, he will be in his prime as Aaron Rodgers ages like a fine wine. His rookie stats don't indicate success but I guess in comparison to Nelson and Cobb's rookie years, he's shooting under par. I loved Davante last season in rookie drafts. I thought having the 6-10 picks in last season's draft was the ideal spot. As of now, that has yet to be answered.
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The problem is that, barring injury to Nelson or Cobb, you're probably talking a minimum of three years until Adams becomes a regular. That's when Jordy's contract is up, and at age 33, perhaps the team will be ready to move on from him. Cobb has four years starting with 2015, but he'll only be 28 when his contract is up, so he's probably there for a long time.

As we all know, things move fast in the NFL and in three years, maybe Adams isn't as good as many expected; or the Packers may have other options; or the offense - including Rodgers - isn't as potent as it once was.

Just too many variables to have expectations in three years, again barring injury. Sounds strange, but despite his talent, Adams' landing spot may be among the worst possible. On another team, if he is really talented, he'd push his way up the totem pole.
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Things just don't usually work out that way in the NFL though. Pretty good bet that Adams is a quality FF starter, even if intermittently, over the next few years.

 
Yup. Projecting out two or three years is folly. This time last year Kaepernick was going to be a stud and everybody was sure that Marshawn Lynch had worn out his welcome in Seattle. Also, Adrian Peterson was a marvel of both physical prowess and virtue.

 
Sabertooth said:
Yup. Projecting out two or three years is folly. This time last year Kaepernick was going to be a stud and everybody was sure that Marshawn Lynch had worn out his welcome in Seattle. Also, Adrian Peterson was a marvel of both physical prowess and virtue.
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Fair point, although hard to imagine that Adams is going to supplant Jordy or Cobb in that offense in the next two years.

If anything, perhaps Rodgers develops more confidence in Adams this year to the point where some of Cobb's and Jordy's targets starting going more towards Adams. Not unlike James Jones a few years back, but the problem with the 3rd receiver there is that he'll have some good games when teams are effectively blanketing Cobb and Jordy, but good luck guessing when that will be.

 
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I am reminded of prolific passing offenses when thinking about whether or not Adams can succeed with the Packers While Nelson and Cobb are still on the team. Manning and the Colts once had three 1000 yard receivers with Harrison Wayne and Stokely. The Broncos had a pretty prolific passing offence under Manning with his three amigos of Thomas, Thomas, and Sanders. It could happen for the Pack and their triumvirate of talented wrs. Adams could be wr25-30 in that offense. Stranger things have happened.

 
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zamboni said:
Sabertooth said:
Yup. Projecting out two or three years is folly. This time last year Kaepernick was going to be a stud and everybody was sure that Marshawn Lynch had worn out his welcome in Seattle. Also, Adrian Peterson was a marvel of both physical prowess and virtue.
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Fair point, although hard to imagine that Adams is going to supplant Jordy or Cobb in that offense in the next two years.
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People said the same thing about Jordy and Cobb at one point. Jordy is getting older.....even if he's still officially the "starter", he might not even be #2 in targets a year or two from now.

 
http://nflspinzone.com/2015/03/29/green-bay-packers-davante-adams-a-major-key-in-2015/

Green Bay Packers second-year wide receiver Davante Adams is a major key for them looking ahead at the 2015 NFL season.

Davante Adams showed up late in the 2014 season and was a major key for the Green Bay Packers as a rookie. He was a huge part of their offense, especially in the playoff run that ended with a very disappointing loss at the hands of the Seattle Seahawks. The last thing that the Packers needed was another big target in the passing game, but Aaron Rodgers certainly isnt complaining.

Click link to read on...

 
Love me some Davante. Best play of the year for him was when he schooled Finnegan on that fake spike. Showed a ton of vet savvy.

 
Rotoworld posting on Jaelen Strong that compares Strong to a pool of several players including Adams:

Arizona State WR Jaelen Strong was likened to Alshon Jeffery by ESPN's Steve Muench.
"There are elements of Strong's game that compare favorably to the four receivers listed above, but Adams gets the edge because of his strong hands, catching radius and competitiveness when the ball is in the air," Muench wrote. "Their ability to make tough, contested catches working against tight coverage both underneath and downfield is what sets Strong and Adams apart. With that in mind, Alshon Jeffrey is arguably the best comparison from a style-of-play perspective, as his speed, frame and length compare even more favorably to Strong's skill set." John Parolin of the Stats & Information Group sees Davante Adams, Martavis Bryant, Cordarrelle Patterson and Donte Moncrief in Jeffery's numbers. "Physically, Strong is most similar to Patterson and Moncrief, measuring over 6-2 and 217 pounds with long arms and big hands," he wrote. "Athletically, he's closest to Bryant, and his vertical jump (42 inches) is better than all of the players mentioned."

Source: ESPN Insider
Apr 5 - 11:43 PM
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Just had an owner in my league pay:

Brandon Marshall

2016 2nd round pick

2017 1st round pick

for

Davante Adams

Have I missed something?

 
Re-drafting the 2014 wide receiver class

Excerpt:

Davante Adams, Green Bay PackersIf general manager Ted Thompson's track record is any indication, stardom awaits Adams. Thompson's previous three second-round wide receivers were Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb, each of whom has signed a contract worth more than $9 million annually.

Hauling in passes from Derek Carr at Fresno State, Adams led the nation in receptions (131) and touchdown catches (24) as a redshirt sophomore in 2013. He won't threaten defenses deep with his 4.54 speed, but still showed polish as a route runner, particularly with a double move that consistently gained separation. Adams is physical enough to win on slants and crossers and uses a 39.5-inch vertical to high-point in traffic and outside the numbers.

In effect, Adams is a strong-handed possession receiver with impressive ball skills, red-zone potential and the ability to stress a defense after the catch. Aaron Rodgers told the FOX broadcast team late in the season that Adams has shown signs of greatness and the "swagger of a No. 1 receiver."

The Question: Will he eventually bypass Jordy Nelson or Randall Cobb?

For all of Rodgers' praise, Adams missed a slew of impromptu back-shoulder opportunities because he lacked chemistry with his quarterback. That potential for big plays off improvisation will obviously improve over time, but it's going to be hard for Adams to surpass the mind-meld that Rodgers has with Nelson and Cobb. In the meantime, the increasingly dynamic Packers offense will benefit with Adams picking on weaker corners.

Comparison: Early-career Michael Crabtree
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Randall Cobb’s Honesty, the Saints’ Potential Pain, Bruce Arians’ Wisdom and More

Excerpt:

I think it’s refreshing for Randall Cobb to put bravado aside and admit that it’s going to be hard for him to top what he did last year, when he caught 91 passes for 1,287 yards and 12 touchdowns. Cobb, who signed a four-year, $40 million contract this past offseason to stay in Green Bay, had reason for his assertion, telling the Packers’ website, “Davante [Adams is] coming along, that adds a target, and he’s going to get more targets.” Exactly. Adams has a chance to become the next Jordy Nelson in Mike McCarthy’s system. His rise—plus the subtle rise we can expect from second-year tight end Richard Rodgers—means fewer touches for Cobb.
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In there past Jordy and Cobb stepped up because Jennings and Janes were let go, when will they do that with Jordy Nelson?

He's 30 now and Cobb is 24.

 
cr8f said:
In there past Jordy and Cobb stepped up because Jennings and Janes were let go, when will they do that with Jordy Nelson?

He's 30 now and Cobb is 24.
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I agree - Adams will have his time, but I think it's probably a few years away barring an injury to Nelson or Cobb. Sure, Adams get more targets as Rodgers gains more comfort with him, but "more targets" could be say, 5-6 a game versus 3-4. Adams is sure to have a few big games, but good luck guessing when that will occur (or predicting a Nelson or Cobb injury)

 
I'm not a total stats guy but they can be very useful at times. Packers wrs are almost always at the top of the yards per target category. But Adams was abysmal last year. The guy flat out stunk with Aaron Rodgers at qb. He also looks like a less athletic Hakeem Nicks, at least when Nicks was a good player. I have no interest unless he's very cheap.

Cobb - 127 targets, 1287 yards

Nelson - 151 targets, 1519 yards

Adams - 66 targets, 446 yards

 
voiceofunreason said:
I'm not a total stats guy but they can be very useful at times. Packers wrs are almost always at the top of the yards per target category. But Adams was abysmal last year. The guy flat out stunk with Aaron Rodgers at qb. He also looks like a less athletic Hakeem Nicks, at least when Nicks was a good player. I have no interest unless he's very cheap.

Cobb - 127 targets, 1287 yards

Nelson - 151 targets, 1519 yards

Adams - 66 targets, 446 yards
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This was actually discussed in the Jeff Janis thread a bit. I would expect a rookie getting ample playing time from week 2 to be less efficient than veteran WRs.
 
Rotoviz did a writeup on Adams about a month back. Their analysis focused on what they call 'relative AYA' and compared rookie WRs from 2005-2014. Their conclusion is that Adams is a SELL in dynasty formats. I honestly had a hard time following this particular article/analysis. They never really explain what Relative AYA means or they did a poor job of explaining it. I guess that's my way of saying that I take this analysis with a grain of salt and as a dynasty owner of Adams, I will not be taking their advice.

When I first discovered Rotoviz, I thought their analysis was interesting and innovative. However, since that time, they seem more focused on quantity of output rather than quality. Often times I'll see multiple articles on the same player with each one contradicting themselves. They have multiple articles on nearly every offensive player out there with every angle you can imagine. I think they are losing credibility with this approach. Anyways, for anyone who is interested, I have quoted Rotoviz's conclusion on Adams below.

Based on the historical Relative AYA data, Adams only has a small chance of becoming a productive dynasty asset after performing so poorly versus other receiving options in his rookie year. Adams is currently pick number 42 overall in recent dynasty startup mock drafts, which represents a substantial premium over pick 75 where he was being mocked in May of last year.Think of what has happened since then: Adams got on the field, but performed poorly during his rookie year; the Packers uncharacteristically paid up to re-sign Cobb, leaving Adams at best as third fiddle; and the Packers spent a third round draft pick on Stanford WR Ty Montgomery. None of these events should have strengthened the case for owning Adams, yet his ADP has gone up significantly.

Let’s face it: It’s time to cash out at a nice profit if you own Adams. You could miss out on the small chance that he breaks out this year, but you’ll be avoiding the much more likely scenario that he fades into obscurity.
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jtd13 said:
voiceofunreason said:
I'm not a total stats guy but they can be very useful at times. Packers wrs are almost always at the top of the yards per target category. But Adams was abysmal last year. The guy flat out stunk with Aaron Rodgers at qb. He also looks like a less athletic Hakeem Nicks, at least when Nicks was a good player. I have no interest unless he's very cheap.

Cobb - 127 targets, 1287 yards

Nelson - 151 targets, 1519 yards

Adams - 66 targets, 446 yards
Click to expand...
This was actually discussed in the Jeff Janis thread a bit. I would expect a rookie getting ample playing time from week 2 to be less efficient than veteran WRs.
Click to expand...
Have you looked up the numbers to prove that because I doubt there's such a big gap on the same team, basically ever. When you have to players like Nelson and Cobb, Adams will face a lot of weak coverage and shouldn't be that far behind in numbers per target. Unless I saw some numbers to back that up I find it highly unlikely.

 
voiceofunreason said:
I'm not a total stats guy but they can be very useful at times. Packers wrs are almost always at the top of the yards per target category. But Adams was abysmal last year. The guy flat out stunk with Aaron Rodgers at qb. He also looks like a less athletic Hakeem Nicks, at least when Nicks was a good player. I have no interest unless he's very cheap.

Cobb - 127 targets, 1287 yards

Nelson - 151 targets, 1519 yards

Adams - 66 targets, 446 yards
Click to expand...
Here are Cobbs numbers as a rookie ... 35 targets, 371 yds, 1 TD.

And he's pretty good.

 
Papa John said:
voiceofunreason said:
I'm not a total stats guy but they can be very useful at times. Packers wrs are almost always at the top of the yards per target category. But Adams was abysmal last year. The guy flat out stunk with Aaron Rodgers at qb. He also looks like a less athletic Hakeem Nicks, at least when Nicks was a good player. I have no interest unless he's very cheap.

Cobb - 127 targets, 1287 yards

Nelson - 151 targets, 1519 yards

Adams - 66 targets, 446 yards
Click to expand...
Here are Cobbs numbers as a rookie ... 35 targets, 371 yds, 1 TD.

And he's pretty good.
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Yep and Adams had a great game in the playoffs against Dallas. Not all rookies hit the ground running like an Odell Beckham.

 
voiceofunreason said:
jtd13 said:
voiceofunreason said:
I'm not a total stats guy but they can be very useful at times. Packers wrs are almost always at the top of the yards per target category. But Adams was abysmal last year. The guy flat out stunk with Aaron Rodgers at qb. He also looks like a less athletic Hakeem Nicks, at least when Nicks was a good player. I have no interest unless he's very cheap.

Cobb - 127 targets, 1287 yards

Nelson - 151 targets, 1519 yards

Adams - 66 targets, 446 yards
Click to expand...
This was actually discussed in the Jeff Janis thread a bit. I would expect a rookie getting ample playing time from week 2 to be less efficient than veteran WRs.
Click to expand...
Have you looked up the numbers to prove that because I doubt there's such a big gap on the same team, basically ever. When you have to players like Nelson and Cobb, Adams will face a lot of weak coverage and shouldn't be that far behind in numbers per target. Unless I saw some numbers to back that up I find it highly unlikely.
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It's a pretty unique situation so it's hard to find a good comparison. That said, I think Kelvin Benjamin and Greg Olsen are a good example from last year.
 
Papa John said:
voiceofunreason said:
I'm not a total stats guy but they can be very useful at times. Packers wrs are almost always at the top of the yards per target category. But Adams was abysmal last year. The guy flat out stunk with Aaron Rodgers at qb. He also looks like a less athletic Hakeem Nicks, at least when Nicks was a good player. I have no interest unless he's very cheap.

Cobb - 127 targets, 1287 yards

Nelson - 151 targets, 1519 yards

Adams - 66 targets, 446 yards
Click to expand...
Here are Cobbs numbers as a rookie ... 35 targets, 371 yds, 1 TD.And he's pretty good.
Click to expand...
Cobb is good, and those numbers look better, but Cobb was the 5th receiving option his rookie year. Adams was the 3rd last year. Cobb was receiving targets in packages specifically designed to get him on the field and playing to his strengths. Adams was on the field in almost all 3 WR sets. To me it seems obvious which guy will be more efficient, even if they have the same ability.

 
jtd13 said:
Papa John said:
voiceofunreason said:
I'm not a total stats guy but they can be very useful at times. Packers wrs are almost always at the top of the yards per target category. But Adams was abysmal last year. The guy flat out stunk with Aaron Rodgers at qb. He also looks like a less athletic Hakeem Nicks, at least when Nicks was a good player. I have no interest unless he's very cheap.

Cobb - 127 targets, 1287 yards

Nelson - 151 targets, 1519 yards

Adams - 66 targets, 446 yards
Click to expand...
Here are Cobbs numbers as a rookie ... 35 targets, 371 yds, 1 TD.And he's pretty good.
Click to expand...
Cobb is good, and those numbers look better, but Cobb was the 5th receiving option his rookie year. Adams was the 3rd last year. Cobb was receiving targets in packages specifically designed to get him on the field and playing to his strengths. Adams was on the field in almost all 3 WR sets. To me it seems obvious which guy will be more efficient, even if they have the same ability.
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The 5th? Different situation between that year and last. They had Finley and Jennings and Jones were still there. I don't believe Adams would have done better in that situation, but that is anyone's opinion.

Last year there were only 2 established receivers TE included on the team. Big difference and hard to compare.

 
cr8f said:
jtd13 said:
Papa John said:
voiceofunreason said:
I'm not a total stats guy but they can be very useful at times. Packers wrs are almost always at the top of the yards per target category. But Adams was abysmal last year. The guy flat out stunk with Aaron Rodgers at qb. He also looks like a less athletic Hakeem Nicks, at least when Nicks was a good player. I have no interest unless he's very cheap.

Cobb - 127 targets, 1287 yards

Nelson - 151 targets, 1519 yards

Adams - 66 targets, 446 yards
Click to expand...
Here are Cobbs numbers as a rookie ... 35 targets, 371 yds, 1 TD.And he's pretty good.
Click to expand...
Cobb is good, and those numbers look better, but Cobb was the 5th receiving option his rookie year. Adams was the 3rd last year. Cobb was receiving targets in packages specifically designed to get him on the field and playing to his strengths. Adams was on the field in almost all 3 WR sets. To me it seems obvious which guy will be more efficient, even if they have the same ability.
Click to expand...
The 5th? Different situation between that year and last. They had Finley and Jennings and Jones were still there. I don't believe Adams would have done better in that situation, but that is anyone's opinion.Last year there were only 2 established receivers TE included on the team. Big difference and hard to compare.
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You forgot Jordy.

I'm not saying Adams would or wouldn't have done better, or that there were more options last year. I'm saying the situation was pretty different, and there is a reasonable explanation for why 1 guy did less with his targets.

 
For those of you who own Adams, what would it take to get you to part with him in a Dynasty (10 teams, non-ppr perf scoring with IDP) league? What (if any) tier RB would you take for him? What kind of pick(s) in a rookie only draft?

 
whiskey7 said:
For those of you who own Adams, what would it take to get you to part with him in a Dynasty (10 teams, non-ppr perf scoring with IDP) league? What (if any) tier RB would you take for him? What kind of pick(s) in a rookie only draft?
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Personally, I'd be happy with any of the following rookies for him in non ppr:Gurley, Gordon, Cooper, White, Perriman, Abdullah, Coleman, Yeldon. In PPR I'd remove Yeldon from that list, and Coleman would be a tossup.

 
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jtd13 said:
whiskey7 said:
For those of you who own Adams, what would it take to get you to part with him in a Dynasty (10 teams, non-ppr perf scoring with IDP) league? What (if any) tier RB would you take for him? What kind of pick(s) in a rookie only draft?
Click to expand...
Personally, I'd be happy with any of the following rookies for him in non ppr:Gurley, Gordon, Cooper, White, Perriman, Abdullah, Coleman, Yeldon. In PPR I'd remove Yeldon from that list, and Coleman would be a tossup.
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What about veteran players? What level of established RB would you need to see to move Adams?
 
Alex P Keaton said:
Brooklyn70 said:
First round pick
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That seems like a delusional value to place on a guy who might not be starter worthy for another 2-3 years
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I have Adams as well and I'm not selling for anything less than a 1st round pick. The talent is there. The opportunity will be there. You're taking the same risk by drafting players in the 1st round, except they don't get to catch passes from one of the greatest QBs of this generation.

 
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