Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
Triple Crown Winner California Chrome (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter BRONG
- Start date
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
BRONG
FOR A LIMITED TIME ONLY
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
In
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
BOOM! Thanks for the $200 BRONG!
Got him at +1125 to win the TC
Last edited by a moderator:
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
Perfect trip today...no trouble and slow pace
Preakness suits his style...not sure he wants 12f in Belmont though
Preakness suits his style...not sure he wants 12f in Belmont though
Jefferson the Caregiver
Rebel Without A Pause
He wasn't pushed on the front end this race. I'd hold off on the triple crown talk.
Ditka Butkus
Footballguy
commanding curve was coming strong.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Yeah, BRONG posted this before the race even started though. He was pretty much third for the first 2/3 of the race and then left everyone in the dust, not sure what isn't to like about this $8k horse.
GoFishTN
Footballguy
Apple Jack
Footballguy
The so and so was closing and would have caught him with the extra distance argument doesn't really work, because they're not sending him at the same time at 1 1/2 as they did at 1 1/4.
Jefferson the Caregiver
Rebel Without A Pause
he won on easy fractions, ill tip my cap for now. Could have been a different race if some of the speed tried to challenge him,Yeah, BRONG posted this before the race even started though. He was pretty much third for the first 2/3 of the race and then left everyone in the dust, not sure what isn't to like about this $8k horse.
Judge Smails
Footballguy
I completely agree with this. And I'm not a California Chrome hater at all. He's been dominant. Yesterday was a very weird race in that it was one of the slowest times on a fast track in decades. I think this is a monster up to 1 1/8, can win at 1 1/4 but the last eighth even though he had it in hand he didn't finish like a horse who would love 1 1/4. That extra eighth is huge. That's why winning the TC is so tough. He will be going against fresh horses after having to run his 3rd race in 7 weeks. With Untapable not expected to go in the Preakness CC should win at around 4/5 or so. He'll be 1-5 in the Belmont and a huge bet against. Don't know who the horse will be. He'll look long gone (similar to Real Quiet) at the top of the lane then will be life and death to hold on.Still pissed I didn't bet that $288 play. $3,400 for $20 exacta, $1,712 for the $1 tri, $7,691 for the super. $12,803. Idiot. And what's even worse was that I really liked Samarat to grind, but didn't like him in the tri. Pick 5 paid $149K.
Oh well.
Judge Smails
Footballguy
I think I'm a pretty good handicapper. Admittedly not the best at putting together the actual wagers.
Would love to see CC win the TC. The sports needs it. Just won't be easy.
Would love to see CC win the TC. The sports needs it. Just won't be easy.
Clifford
Footballguy
He was the chalk favorite. Question was who had commanding curve in the exacta.Yeah, BRONG posted this before the race even started though. He was pretty much third for the first 2/3 of the race and then left everyone in the dust, not sure what isn't to like about this $8k horse.
Mr. Pickles
Footballguy
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
When you pick the the chalk favorite to win the Super Bowl and they win, I'll give you credit too. I just probably won't tail you.He was the chalk favorite. Question was who had commanding curve in the exacta.Yeah, BRONG posted this before the race even started though. He was pretty much third for the first 2/3 of the race and then left everyone in the dust, not sure what isn't to like about this $8k horse.
Last edited by a moderator:
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Good bet compared to what the track odds might pay. +250 x ? x ? will not add up to +1125 imo.
Got him at +1125 to win the TC
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
newest offshore odds:
2014 Preakness Stakes - Odds to Win
- California Chrome
- 5/8
- Social Inclusion
- 6/1
- Bayern
- 12/1
- Ride on Curlin
- 12/1
- Kid Cruz
- 14/1
- Dynamic Impact
- 16/1
- General A Rod
- 20/1
- Pablo Del Monte
- 25/1
- Ring Weekend
- 25/1
- Ria Antonia
- 33/1
All wagers have action.
posts & morning lines should be out today @ 5 eastern on espn.
Dentist
***Official FBG Dentist***
So lame that the preakness drops down to 10 horses, that the interest drops 80% from the Kentucky Derby to the second leg, and that if Cali Chrome wins that there is a good chance he'll pull a "i'll have another" and just pull out of the belmont because he's already generated insane stud fees.
I want to like horse racing more, but it's just full of so many problems.
I want to like horse racing more, but it's just full of so many problems.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
If CC wins he'll run in the Belmont as long as he is healthy, this owner group seems all in to me.
Timmay
Footballguy
I get that feeling too, I think CC will run if he wins the Preakness. I don't think he will win in NY though if he does run. Horse Racing needs a triple crown winner though.
Dentist
***Official FBG Dentist***
right but health seems like such an ambiguous term with horse racing.
not to mention if he doesn't win this does that mean he'll pass on the Belmont? Because that makes that race even MORE lame.
It would be the tennis equivalent of winning the french open, and just because you don't win Wimbledon, now you don't compete at the US Open... horrible
Dentist
***Official FBG Dentist***
it needs it badly... and then to change the rules and give the horse a chance to defend titles... to gives the public more name recognition from year in to year out.
To see greatness.. like LeBron winning an NBA title... and then not getting the chance to see him defend it.... that's lame.
Timmay
Footballguy
That would be an interesting idea. Let CC come back as a 4-year old to defend the title against the 3 year old field.
Officer Pete Malloy
Footballguy
Dentist
***Official FBG Dentist***
are 4 y.o.'s better than 3 y.o.'s? would it not be close?
are there horses in the big breeders cup races that would just blow away the derby field of 3 y.o.'s?
are 5-6-10 year old horses even better?
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Tradition says this won't happen, but a match race of a triple crown winner & a leading older horse (maybe a previous Derby winner) is always possible.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Dentist
***Official FBG Dentist***
ok, then is it only tradition that is keeping me from seeing the best of the best at the kentucky derby?
Why am I not able to see the absolute fastest horses regardless of age at the biggest races of the year?
If there is only a 2-3 year window where horses are elite, then it could be like college sports where you hear the same name for 2-3 seasons and then they fade away... but that's still more interesting than one-offs... this is something keeping the races from getting bigger.
If a horse could become a household name.. or we could have an attempt at 3-peat of Kentucky derbies in a row i feel like there would be more interest
Timmay
Footballguy
Depends on the horse obviously, but most horses will start to decline around 5. A returning champion 4 y.o. would have a slight advantage over newbie 3 y.o.'s. Most of the derby horses have never seen Churchill downs and that atmosphere the derby brings. Plus It is the Kentucky derby, it is tradition to race 3 y.o.'s in the race.
10 y.o. racing thoroughbreds are rare to come by unless they are retired. 7 is usually that age where a lot of horses just don't have it anymore and retire.
Don Quixote
Footballguy
The Breeder's Cup has some of that, but it's not as popular as the triple crown races.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
It's almost like if the NCAA football NC was bigger than the Super Bowl. It's public opinion driving it, Breeders Cup day actually features higher purse races but not as many casual fans are into it like the Derby or Triple Crown bids.
Judge Smails
Footballguy
The mindset of current day trainers is so much different than in the past. Look at horses prepping for the Breeder's Cup. To get a horse to peak on a big day, you now want 4-5 weeks from a previous race. And those are usually older horses who have gone the distance they are running.In the Triple Crown, you are taking 3 year olds who are going 1 1/4, 1 3/16 and 1 1/2 miles, 3 grueling races that they also have to ship to, in 5 weeks. So fewer and fewer horses running in the Derby come back in 2 weeks to run the Preakness. The ONLY reason to run in all 3 is if you have a shot to win the Triple Crown or are a REAL contender (think Alydar/Affirmed, Sunday Silence/Easy Goer) to win any of the 3. Other than that, it's vanity. The triple crown trail drains horses. Some never recover. If the Preakness were 4 weeks from the Derby, I guarantee Danza would run. 2 week turnaround is just 2 short for horses to run peak performances.
For those questioning the winning distance by CC in the Derby, he was completely geared down the last 1/16th. Espinoza was saving him. Some suspect he wasn't even fully cranked in the Derby, and now he is fitter. I think he blows this field away. Still, he will be a bet against in the Belmont no matter what. Even if he wins by 10.
Really wanting to bet a CC-Kid Cruz one way exacta. $100. He will be 20+ lengths back, so it's a risk. He's the Commanding Curve in this race. But the only other really good horse I see in here is Social Inclusion. Ride on Curlin I'm not sure about..
Jefferson the Caregiver
Rebel Without A Pause
The Derby is 3 year olds, period, that's not gonna change nor does anyone want it to change.
There is a horse race for your needs, it's called the Breeder's Cup Classic
Timmay
Footballguy
I think CC will take the Preakness this weekend. I just don't think it will be worth betting on it. No value, If the odds are 5/8 before post draw like Leroy said up top, I think they will be driven down even more before race time.
Anyone have any value ideas to make it worth betting on CC?
Anyone have any value ideas to make it worth betting on CC?
General Malaise
Footballguy
Look, you CAN make money here. Few things:
1) Dentist - 10 horses is A LOT for a horse race. It's not 'lame'. Spend a day at your local track and tell me how many of those races featured 10 or more horses. The Kentucky Derby is an anomaly in horse racing. It's also very risky for the horses and the jockeys. Owners and trainers don't want their high priced investments at risk, but the Derby is the Derby.
2) As JTC said, the Breeder's Cup Classic pits the best horses in the world against each other, regardless of their age/gender. Check out video from 2009's Breeders Cup. Goose bumps.
3) Those saying a heavy favorite running and winning the Preakness destroys all value need to look back in history. Big Brown was a HUGE favorite to win the Preakness in 2008 - his 1-5 line at the start of the race makes 6-5 look like the Lotto by comparison. And no, you made no money betting him, but if you had the right place horse, you won $36.60 in the exacta and the tri that year paid you $336. That's a great payday. Again, some of you should spend a full day at your local track and report back. $336 on a tri is a great return. The super in 2008 paid over a grand. You can make money with a heavy favorite running and winning.
I think we're looking at a TC horse here too, and wrote about it on my Derby write up. I just don't see any challengers to Chrome. There is no Alydar. There is no Empire Maker. My bet is Chrome's odds drop to below par by the time the race goes off.
Now, the challenge of course is to identify the best of the rest.
1) Dentist - 10 horses is A LOT for a horse race. It's not 'lame'. Spend a day at your local track and tell me how many of those races featured 10 or more horses. The Kentucky Derby is an anomaly in horse racing. It's also very risky for the horses and the jockeys. Owners and trainers don't want their high priced investments at risk, but the Derby is the Derby.
2) As JTC said, the Breeder's Cup Classic pits the best horses in the world against each other, regardless of their age/gender. Check out video from 2009's Breeders Cup. Goose bumps.
3) Those saying a heavy favorite running and winning the Preakness destroys all value need to look back in history. Big Brown was a HUGE favorite to win the Preakness in 2008 - his 1-5 line at the start of the race makes 6-5 look like the Lotto by comparison. And no, you made no money betting him, but if you had the right place horse, you won $36.60 in the exacta and the tri that year paid you $336. That's a great payday. Again, some of you should spend a full day at your local track and report back. $336 on a tri is a great return. The super in 2008 paid over a grand. You can make money with a heavy favorite running and winning.
I think we're looking at a TC horse here too, and wrote about it on my Derby write up. I just don't see any challengers to Chrome. There is no Alydar. There is no Empire Maker. My bet is Chrome's odds drop to below par by the time the race goes off.
Now, the challenge of course is to identify the best of the rest.
Dentist
***Official FBG Dentist***
I don't have a local track unfortunately.. I used to. Not anymore.
Sounds like the Kentucky derby allows too many horses.
this could all be corrected if it wasn't the only horse race that average guy thinks about. They can fix this through better marketing and by instituting some of my ideas.
Timmay
Footballguy
The year Big Brown won the Preakness a long shot came in 2nd. Macho Again was 40-1. That is why the Exacta and Trifecta hit was bigger than it should have been. If you get CC and a horse like Social Inclusion at anywhere from 6-1 to 10-1 to come in 2nd. Your exacta isn't exactly a payday. Exacta's are hard enough to hit, let alone a trifecta. I'm going to bet on the race, but I won't be putting as much coin on it as I will other races during the day.
General Malaise
Footballguy
General Malaise
Footballguy
Sure, they're hard to hit, but that doesn't stop me from trying. That's where the money will be made. Look back at the 2003 and 2004 Preakness for more examples of a heavy favorite running/winning with decent payouts for exotics. You can take CC and do a partial wheel without breaking your bank.
Dentist
***Official FBG Dentist***
maybe... i want horse racing to have mass appeal because i think it is pretty cool... and it doesn't.
I'm a slightly above average fan and just sharing some of the things I wish I could see in racing.
It would be interesting to poll the average person and see what it would take for them to be a fan.. maybe the answer is nothing would work.. it's just a niche sport no matter how you slice it.
But with almost every sport I watch I just see things and like to analyze ways the sport could be better, more interesting, more popular.. more fair and balanced.. less luck based..
Horse racing is a sport that seems ripe for an opportunity to modernize itself and be more widely appreciated. Tennis could use some changes as well... Baseball needs to be faster.. football needs to be faster.. soccer needs more goals via a larger goal (and thus less ties).
So I'm interested to see what true horse guys like you think would help popularize things beyond just "kentucky derby" (which after reading your analysis seems like a poorly designed race anyway... and i agrree)
Judge Smails
Footballguy
The problems are vast......Dentist said:
1) When I was a kid, going to the track was an event. You'd have 30K people at Santa Anita, and families would be picnicking in the infield, etc. Younger people got introduced to racing through their family and friends.
2) Now unless it's a premium, short meet (Del Mar, Saratoga, maybe Keeneland fall meet) you'd be hard pressed to see 5K people in on track attendance. Hard core gamblers can just bet online, and if they wager multiple tracks it's easier.
3) Most people during days. So weekday racing is getting killed. Most tracks that used to race 5 days a week have already gone to Thursday/Sunday schedules. It's just dead.
4) The racing business is trying. Most tracks are trying to draw younger people in. Hollywood Park did Friday night racing starting at 4pm followed by a concert. Many are doing that now. It helps. Fridays at Del Mar are freakin' awesome. Other tracks will do $1 beers, hot dogs, etc. They'll do family fun days in the infield, with air bounces. Beer gardens. Food trucks. They are trying a lot of different ideas, but.....
5) It's a dying sport. They removed the tax advantages of owning horses. Can't write off the losses like you used to. That started it. Less owners meant less horses. 10-12 horse fields turned into 5 horse fields. Most larger fields are just maidens (never won a race) so you can really throw out half those horses too. Tracks have increased the take out, making betting on horses an even tougher proposition than it is. Many tracks have closed down all together (Hollywood Park, Bay Meadows, etc) or are hanging on by a thread by combining with slots/casinos. Frankly I don't know it can be fixed. If it were me I'd go to 3 day a week racing, Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Bigger fields. Entertainment. Make it an event again.
Ray Karpis
Footballguy
Yeah, it's not just "tradition"...the Triple Crown races are for 3 y.o. LIke the Oaks is for fillies.Jefferson the Caregiver said:
