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I understand the thought process and would hope that he would be motivated to make changes as well. All I'm saying is even something as small as not leading with your head will take time because he's probably been doing it for so long.
I agree. A healthy Devonta is very underrated.- Unquestioned starter
- Every-down RB
- Confidence of coaching staff (as evidenced by Tevin's departure and no high draft pick)
- Good QB, WR's, and TE
Devonta's current ADP of RB16/34 overall makes him a late 3rd/early 4th pick. The only way he doesn't return full value is if he misses time. I will be monitoring him throughout the preseason, and if he doesn't reinjure himself, I will be targeting him. Ito Smith is not a competitor for touches; he will get his touches to keep Devonta rested. Buyer beware of course, but as of now, I will say 210/924, 45/365, and 10 TD's is a decent ceiling. His floor is solely based on his health.
Thanks for saying this. I thought I was missing something.- Unquestioned starter
- Every-down RB
- Confidence of coaching staff (as evidenced by Tevin's departure and no high draft pick)
- Good QB, WR's, and TE
Devonta's current ADP of RB16/34 overall makes him a late 3rd/early 4th pick. The only way he doesn't return full value is if he misses time. I will be monitoring him throughout the preseason, and if he doesn't reinjure himself, I will be targeting him. Ito Smith is not a competitor for touches; he will get his touches to keep Devonta rested. Buyer beware of course, but as of now, I will say 210/924, 45/365, and 10 TD's is a decent ceiling. His floor is solely based on his health.
Better use 7th or 8th pick to get ito. Multiple concussions and other injuries has me scared..- Unquestioned starter
- Every-down RB
- Confidence of coaching staff (as evidenced by Tevin's departure and no high draft pick)
- Good QB, WR's, and TE
Devonta's current ADP of RB16/34 overall makes him a late 3rd/early 4th pick. The only way he doesn't return full value is if he misses time. I will be monitoring him throughout the preseason, and if he doesn't reinjure himself, I will be targeting him. Ito Smith is not a competitor for touches; he will get his touches to keep Devonta rested. Buyer beware of course, but as of now, I will say 210/924, 45/365, and 10 TD's is a decent ceiling. His floor is solely based on his health.
All this is true.
Ito's ADP sits around round 10 (RB44), but I would pass on him at that price. Normally, cuffing an injury risk RB is a good idea, but I think you are looking at a committee if Devonta goes down. I would much rather have Peyton Barber (RB43). He may not be a stud, but he is the best TB's got, and he did a decent job in pass protection.
I'd agree with this, I think too often player threads are sometimes too overwhelmingly positive. Freeman is as unlikely to stay healthy as any RB in the league. He could have a good season for sure, but I think where he is currently being drafted is pretty fair. I worry that he's most likely to be kind of like Matt Brieda was last year, where he's good, and effective, but always coming out with various injuries, and hard to trust. He's a low-end RB2 to me, because I just can't trust him to be healthy, and he doesn't have the ceiling that other injury risk RB's(Gurley for instance) have.
Over balky ankle Fournette, I would agree, but I would still take Gurley's ceiling over him.
Each year there are players I target that have comeback potential. Maybe it's from injury, or a bad previous season, or that guy that just never really broke out yet. Last year, for example, I hung my hat on Jordan Reed. Alex "the TE whisperer" Smith was supposed to catapult him back to being a top 5 TE. Boy, was I wrong on that one.
This very offseason I traded Fournette for Freeman and a 2020 1st. Pretty happy with that move.
Completely agree. Freeman is a guy I wouldn't touch in dynasty. In redraft I get it (I suppose), but he's got maybe 1-2 good years left at best, and it's more likely he spends a decent chunk of that on the trainer's table. There are plenty of guys around his ADP who I'd rather have.
In a win now situation needing a rb, with a late 1st you cant get any better than Freeman.
The only questions are can he stay healthy and does he still have juice left. Coming into the league he was at the low end for bursty, agility, speed. So if the wear and tear has drained him, he might find himself unable to make those electric cuts that he used and become very ineffective. But if he still has that juice, you are looking at a 1200/8 with a ceiling for 1400/12. That is a high powered offense that has tried hard to improve the o-line.
It's not unheard of for a running back to decline at 27 or 28, or however old he is. But it's rare. Most of the time youd still consider him at the back end of his prime.
I agree but if I created a profile for the type of RB who would have an earlier decline, it would be Freeman.
Maybe. He’s small, tested very poorly as a healthy 22 year old. He’s likely only slower and less explosive now. He was never a highly thought of prospect and it’s a surprise he was ever an RB1 in the first place. There’s a good chance that if he’s not operating at 100%, he’s not going be able to cut it in the NFL.
Other than injuries, man I'm just inclined to say your body doesnt deteriate or slow down much from 22 to 27. Unless you get fat or contract malaria.
That seems about right. I still have Fournette quite a bit over Freeman at this point. Even in Freeman's prime years he was always propped up by the big TD numbers. I just don't see those returning for a smallish back in a non Shanahan system.
1000 NFL touches could. However, I mostly agree with you and think he’s safe to draft. However, I do see a scenario where he just isn’t as effective as he used to be.
Not that rare. Ray Rice, Maurice Jones-Drew, Marion Barber, Ahmad Bradshaw, Joseph Addai, CJ Spiller, Rashard Mendenhall, Doug Martin, Alfred Morris. Some of those guys don't have that great a reputation compared to how we think of Freeman, but part of that is because of how little they did at age 27+ (and they were more highly thought of at age 25 or whatever).
There are also guys like Emmitt Smith who continued to be good runners at 27+, but not on the same level that they were when younger. Emmitt had 5 straight seasons with 1820+ YFS at ages 22-26, and never came within 300 yards of that at ages 27+. Freeman has less talent to spare, so if he has taken a step down then he's not going to be worth a 3rd round fantasy pick.
His ADP is pretty similar to last year. With Coleman gone, he is more of a threat for the lion's share. It's his injury history that puts a damper on his outlook. IF he can stay healthy, the numbers are there to be had.
Always nice to hear from you TDW happy independence day!!
Dr. Chao weighed in on Freeman specifically when he was coming back last year. And it’s a fair concern insofar as he didn’t last long before re-injury in 2018. I have to think that 20+ months vs 8 works to Freeman’s advantage.
