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Devonta Freeman, RB (ATL)

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5 minutes ago, 32 Counter Pass said:

Not trying to talk you on to the Freeman train but I think you mischaracterizing his situation. This isn't a "sudden" thing. I am making an assumption that doctors and coaches have given him the harsh reality: change your style of running or you may not see the end of your contract. I suspect that is very good motivation to make changes. I think the fact that the Falcons didn't sign any big name RBs or spend high draft capital on the position is an endorsement for Freeman. Definitely some risk but well worth the upside.

 

As an athlete, nowhere near NFL level, it is much easier said than done when it comes to changing the way you play. You can tell yourself to change all you want but when gametime comes, your instincts take over and if you're thinking too much about the change, your play will often suffer.

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The Falcons were so concerned with Devonta's health, they let Coleman go and didn't use an early round pick on RB.

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1 hour ago, Twenty-Four Eighty-Four said:

As an athlete, nowhere near NFL level, it is much easier said than done when it comes to changing the way you play. You can tell yourself to change all you want but when gametime comes, your instincts take over and if you're thinking too much about the change, your play will often suffer.

I could be under thinking it or letting my bias cloud my vision, this doesn't really require a huge change in running style. Don't lead with your head, get of bounds to avoid contact. He should be very motivate to make such changes given his history and how much money is on the line. 

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Freeman projected at 32 and 17 rb taken off the board.  Meaning you need to invest 3rd pick to get a lead rb on a good offense that has 3 confirmed concussions and a myriad of other injuries.  The only way People could justify the pick is taking i smith too thereby locking up the position should freemen go down.  

Edited by stlrams

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17 hours ago, 32 Counter Pass said:

I could be under thinking it or letting my bias cloud my vision, this doesn't really require a huge change in running style. Don't lead with your head, get of bounds to avoid contact. He should be very motivate to make such changes given his history and how much money is on the line. 

I understand the thought process and would hope that he would be motivated to make changes as well. All I'm saying is even something as small as not leading with your head will take time because he's probably been doing it for so long.

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Opportunity is there.  I just don't have a high trust factor.  First 4-5 rounds is all about trust to deliver at a high level for me.  He doesn't check that box.  

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Devonta Freeman (groin) is participating during OTAs.

It is not a surprise considering coach Dan Quinn said Freeman would be a full-go for camp, but it is still a good sign after Freeman suffered through knee, groin, and foot injuries last year. With Tevin Coleman gone, Freeman projects to take over as the clear lead back in one of the best offenses in the league. He could bounce back in a big way in fantasy.

SOURCE: Kelsey Conway on Twitter

May 23, 2019, 12:41 PM ET

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vaughn mcclure @vxmcclure23

Devonta Freeman continues to look like his old self. Has a true bounce to his step. Real burst catching screen passes

 

12:50 PM - May 30, 2019 · Georgia, USA

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Quote

Falcons coach Dan Quinn said Devonta Freeman has looked like "himself" this offseason.

Freeman barely saw the field while battling a groin injury last year but hasn't shown any ill effects this offseason, impressing throughout OTAs. Quinn was complementary of Freeman's resilience throughout his rehab, making note of his "mental toughness." "He was another one who had so much to prove and to get back out on the field and to recapture his energy and style so quickly," said the Falcons coach. "I was very happy to see that." Freeman faces durability concerns coming off his injury-spoiled 2018, but he should be an asset in the fantasy realm if healthy.

SOURCE: atlantafalcons.com

Jun 21, 2019, 4:34 PM ET

 

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- Unquestioned starter 

- Every-down RB 

- Confidence of coaching staff (as evidenced by Tevin's departure and no high draft pick) 

- Good QB, WR's, and TE 

Devonta's current ADP of RB16/34 overall  makes him a late 3rd/early 4th pick.  The only way he doesn't return full value is if he misses time.  I will be monitoring him throughout the preseason, and if he doesn't reinjure himself, I will be targeting him.  Ito Smith is not a competitor for touches; he will get his touches to keep Devonta rested.  Buyer beware of course, but as of now, I will say 210/924, 45/365, and 10 TD's is a decent ceiling.  His floor is solely based on his health.

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3 hours ago, TheWinz said:

- Unquestioned starter 

- Every-down RB 

- Confidence of coaching staff (as evidenced by Tevin's departure and no high draft pick) 

- Good QB, WR's, and TE 

Devonta's current ADP of RB16/34 overall  makes him a late 3rd/early 4th pick.  The only way he doesn't return full value is if he misses time.  I will be monitoring him throughout the preseason, and if he doesn't reinjure himself, I will be targeting him.  Ito Smith is not a competitor for touches; he will get his touches to keep Devonta rested.  Buyer beware of course, but as of now, I will say 210/924, 45/365, and 10 TD's is a decent ceiling.  His floor is solely based on his health.

I agree.  A healthy Devonta is very underrated.  

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3 hours ago, TheWinz said:

- Unquestioned starter 

- Every-down RB 

- Confidence of coaching staff (as evidenced by Tevin's departure and no high draft pick) 

- Good QB, WR's, and TE 

Devonta's current ADP of RB16/34 overall  makes him a late 3rd/early 4th pick.  The only way he doesn't return full value is if he misses time.  I will be monitoring him throughout the preseason, and if he doesn't reinjure himself, I will be targeting him.  Ito Smith is not a competitor for touches; he will get his touches to keep Devonta rested.  Buyer beware of course, but as of now, I will say 210/924, 45/365, and 10 TD's is a decent ceiling.  His floor is solely based on his health.

Thanks for saying this. I thought I was missing something.

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On 6/21/2019 at 8:41 PM, TheWinz said:

- Unquestioned starter 

- Every-down RB 

- Confidence of coaching staff (as evidenced by Tevin's departure and no high draft pick) 

- Good QB, WR's, and TE 

Devonta's current ADP of RB16/34 overall  makes him a late 3rd/early 4th pick.  The only way he doesn't return full value is if he misses time.  I will be monitoring him throughout the preseason, and if he doesn't reinjure himself, I will be targeting him.  Ito Smith is not a competitor for touches; he will get his touches to keep Devonta rested.  Buyer beware of course, but as of now, I will say 210/924, 45/365, and 10 TD's is a decent ceiling.  His floor is solely based on his health.

Better use 7th or 8th pick to get ito.  Multiple concussions and other injuries has me scared..

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I'm not sure I'm using a pick that early on a guy like Ito Smith. At this moment in time, I'm probably looking at other solutions in the event of a DFree injury. From what I saw out of Ito last Season, I don't think we're getting anywhere close to DFree production from him if he's forced into action due to injury. He did OK in tandem with Tevin Coleman, but he didn't show me he's complete enough to shoulder a premium load...just seemed to profile as a journeyman, rather than a special player who could rise to the occasion. I've heard talk that the Rookie (Qadree Ollison) may have more upside in that case, and rather than spending some prime draft capital on Ito, Ollison can be had very, very late, or more likely, as a priority waiver add if necessary when churning the bottom of one's Roster. Just my .02...

ETA: I love, love, love me some healthy DFree at his current ADP, but sadly, his is a 'buyer beware' situation. I love this kid when he's healthy, and I sure hope he proves durable enough to handle a season-long load. 16 games at that price...he could be a true difference maker.

Edited by nittanylion
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49 minutes ago, nittanylion said:

I'm not sure I'm using a pick that early on a guy like Ito Smith. At this moment in time, I'm probably looking at other solutions in the event of a DFree injury. From what I saw out of Ito last Season, I don't think we're getting anywhere close to DFree production from him if he's forced into action due to injury. He did OK in tandem with Tevin Coleman, but he didn't show me he's complete enough to shoulder a premium load...just seemed to profile as a journeyman, rather than a special player who could rise to the occasion. I've heard talk that the Rookie (Qadree Ollison) may have more upside in that case, and rather than spending some prime draft capital on Ito, Ollison can be had very, very late, or more likely, as a priority waiver add.

All this is true.

Ito Smith might not even be average. I dont know what people saw out of him to want to draft him before their kicker. I much prefer Qadree Ollison. Even though he is one dimensional, at least there is reason to believe he might be good at it. It's not far fetched for him to earn some committee work if the Falcons want to give Freeman a break like they usually do.

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5 hours ago, stlrams said:

Better use 7th or 8th pick to get ito.  Multiple concussions and other injuries has me scared..

Ito's ADP sits around round 10 (RB44), but I would pass on him at that price.  Normally, cuffing an injury risk RB is a good idea, but I think you are looking at a committee if Devonta goes down.  I would much rather have Peyton Barber (RB43).  He may not be a stud, but he is the best TB's got, and he did a decent job in pass protection.

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His role took a drop when Shanahan left. I wouldn't plan on that two/three years ago production coming back any time soon.

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16 minutes ago, Slider said:

His role took a drop when Shanahan left. I wouldn't plan on that two/three years ago production coming back any time soon.

I'd agree with this, I think too often player threads are sometimes too overwhelmingly positive. Freeman is as unlikely to stay healthy as any RB in the league. He could have a good season for sure, but I think where he is currently being drafted is pretty fair. I worry that he's most likely to be kind of like Matt Brieda was last year, where he's good, and effective, but always coming out with various injuries, and hard to trust. He's a low-end RB2 to me, because I just can't trust him to be healthy, and he doesn't have the ceiling that other injury risk RB's(Gurley for instance) have.

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Much improved O-line, at least on paper, with a rock solid supporting cast, no TC taking carries away, he's only 27 years old.

injuries matter, but I'd take him in a NY minute over Fournette and Gurley.

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1 hour ago, Tanner9919 said:

Much improved O-line, at least on paper, with a rock solid supporting cast, no TC taking carries away, he's only 27 years old.

injuries matter, but I'd take him in a NY minute over Fournette and Gurley.

Over balky ankle Fournette, I would agree, but I would still take Gurley's ceiling over him.

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19 hours ago, travdogg said:

I'd agree with this, I think too often player threads are sometimes too overwhelmingly positive. Freeman is as unlikely to stay healthy as any RB in the league. He could have a good season for sure, but I think where he is currently being drafted is pretty fair. I worry that he's most likely to be kind of like Matt Brieda was last year, where he's good, and effective, but always coming out with various injuries, and hard to trust. He's a low-end RB2 to me, because I just can't trust him to be healthy, and he doesn't have the ceiling that other injury risk RB's(Gurley for instance) have.

Each year there are players I target that have comeback potential.  Maybe it's from injury, or a bad previous season, or that guy that just never really broke out yet.  Last year, for example, I hung my hat on Jordan Reed.  Alex "the TE whisperer" Smith was supposed to catapult him back to being a top 5 TE.  Boy, was I wrong on that one.

This year, it's Devonta for me.  With the backfield to himself, I think he can near 300 touches, 1500 total, and double digit TD's.  His current ADP puts him as a late 3rd/early 4th pick, and I will surely roll the dice on him.  Is he an injury risk, moreso than the average guy?  Sure, but hey, you can't argue that he will return great value IF he can stay healthy.

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3 hours ago, Tanner9919 said:

Much improved O-line, at least on paper, with a rock solid supporting cast, no TC taking carries away, he's only 27 years old.

injuries matter, but I'd take him in a NY minute over Fournette and Gurley.

This very offseason I traded Fournette for Freeman and a 2020 1st.  Pretty happy with that move. 

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On 6/24/2019 at 1:25 AM, travdogg said:

I'd agree with this, I think too often player threads are sometimes too overwhelmingly positive. Freeman is as unlikely to stay healthy as any RB in the league. He could have a good season for sure, but I think where he is currently being drafted is pretty fair. I worry that he's most likely to be kind of like Matt Brieda was last year, where he's good, and effective, but always coming out with various injuries, and hard to trust. He's a low-end RB2 to me, because I just can't trust him to be healthy, and he doesn't have the ceiling that other injury risk RB's(Gurley for instance) have.

Completely agree. Freeman is a guy I wouldn't touch in dynasty. In redraft I get it (I suppose), but he's got maybe 1-2 good years left at best, and it's more likely he spends a decent chunk of that on the trainer's table. There are plenty of guys around his ADP who I'd rather have. 

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3 hours ago, RushHour said:

Completely agree. Freeman is a guy I wouldn't touch in dynasty. In redraft I get it (I suppose), but he's got maybe 1-2 good years left at best, and it's more likely he spends a decent chunk of that on the trainer's table. There are plenty of guys around his ADP who I'd rather have. 

In a win now situation needing a rb, with a late 1st you cant get any better than Freeman.

Edited by cloppbeast

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