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Marshawn Lynch -- "I'm here so I won't get fined" (2 Viewers)

travdogg said:
....... or maybe giving up a bit more for Doug Martin, or drafting a good prospect? 
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I have to think in NFL circles it's assumed that TB will be looking for his replacement in the draft and it's expected they will release Martin after they draft his replacement. Otherwise it makes absolutely no sense a team like oak/ind wouldn't give up a ham sandwich for him right now. 

 
For those of you that have been around long enough to remember...I could totally see Lynch's role, being a lot like Marcus Allen's was in the last year or two of his career in KC. he was Fantasy gold..touchdown after touchdown after touchdown. Since I used my high waiver spot on Lynch, That's what i am hoping for..he doesn't need to give me any yardage..if he gives me 3 carries for 3 yds and 3 TD's in games, I will take it and be happy as hell.

 
The San Francisco Chronicle reports the Raiders are offering Marshawn Lynch a $3 million salary.
Lynch wants closer to $5 million. It explains what’s been holding up talks between the sides. The Raiders expect to reach a deal with Lynch before the draft.

Related: Raiders
 
Source: Vic Tafur on Twitter 
Apr 21 - 6:02 PM
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No doubt there'll be lots of excitement but I can't see him running for 1200 yards and 10 TDs. The general history of once-great RBs moving on to a new team to finish their career is that they disappoint. Emmitt Smith had the best final year and even he was held under 1000 yards.

Here is Franco Harris' final year in the league, at Seattle:


1984


Seattle Seahawks


8


68


8.5


170


2.5


21.2


0


16

Here is Tony Dorsett's final year in the league, at Denver:


1988


Denver Broncos


16


--


181


703


3.9


26


5


16


122


7.6


16


0

Here are Emmitt Smith's final two years in the league, at Arizona:


2004


Arizona Cardinals


15


15


267


937


3.5


29T


9


15


105


7.0


18


0


4


1


 


2003


Arizona Cardinals


10


5


90


256


2.8


22


2


14


107


7.6


36


0


2


0

 
I won't argue with those who aren't excited about this, or saying to temper expectations, but I think Lynch can still produce at RB2/3 level this year behind that line.  I'm thinking similar numbers to Murray last year if Lynch stays healthy.  Well worth taking a flier on him for the right price, which I believe is about a late 2nd or early 3rd.

 
Raiders acquired RB Marshawn Lynch and a 2018 sixth-round pick from the Seahawks in exchange for a 2018 fifth-round pick.

Lynch is in Oakland Wednesday to take his physical, which he should pass considering he's rarely been injured in his career and is coming off a year in retirement. The Raiders apparently were impressed with Lynch's conditioning at his recent visit. Lynch is getting a two-year deal from the Raiders, though it's likely a one-year pact with an option. He just turned 31 but will be running behind a top-three offensive line, which is a massive upgrade from his final year in Seattle.

Related: Seahawks
 
Source: Jay Glazer on Twitter 
Apr 26 - 10:42 AM
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I had a job at a company I didnt like years ago, I wanted out... So I quit and when I got the new job at a different company doing the same thing I had a new excitement and a sense of rejuvenation.  Dont underestimate the value of being where you want instead of where you dont. Lynch wants to be in Oakland and out of Seattle so bad he quit the game all together. I'm sure a "back ache" that hurt him and made him miss a practice or plays wont affect him as much now that he is in Oakland if you catch my point. I understand ability is key, but he looks healthy and passed a physical. I think his drive was part of the problem last time he played, I believe many saw the attitude was "just done."

Cool video at this link on the Raiders twitter of him at facility and in Raiders helmet. 

https://twitter.com/RAIDERS/status/857317755992723456

 
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So what RB tier is Lynch falling into in redraft formats this upcoming season? I imagine we won't see too much of him during the Preseson, so it might be a leap of faith with him. 

 
He’s 31 years old and he missed all of last season. To add to that he wasn’t exactly lighting it up in the last year that he played when he was 29 years old...I think it’s far more likely that he is a bust rather than a stud in 2017...I want no part of Lynch this season.

 
Saboo said:
He’s 31 years old and he missed all of last season. To add to that he wasn’t exactly lighting it up in the last year that he played when he was 29 years old...I think it’s far more likely that he is a bust rather than a stud in 2017...I want no part of Lynch this season.
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Right out of the naysayers playbook on Lynch this year. Far more likely for those reasons? I agree, he must have forgot how to play football and an injury from 2 years ago? Injuries are so hard to discuss because the ill informed just like to use them as a broad stroke instead of the circumstances that lie with them. Those two things do not look like a problem in this. http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000813425/article/marshawn-lynch-dashes-for-long-touchdown-in-otas?campaign=Twitter_atn

 
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Saboo said:
He’s 31 years old and he missed all of last season. To add to that he wasn’t exactly lighting it up in the last year that he played when he was 29 years old...I think it’s far more likely that he is a bust rather than a stud in 2017...I want no part of Lynch this season.
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I'll take a stance somewhere in between you and Mavis. I think Lynch can still be effective in the NFL -- things soured for him in SEA and  while I don't think him being out of the league for a year is problematic (nor are any injuries he may have suffered in his last season with the Seahawks, although you never brought up any injury concern in your post, Saboo), I do agree that there is risk that he may not be the same Lynch we were used to seeing in SEA given age, mileage, and the rust that he'll need to shake off in the preseason. 

I am not taking his TD run in OTA as proof he's back -- it's practice, for goodness sakes -- and I do think that there is good potential he may have lost a step, but it will be very hard to confirm until WK 1 as we won't see a lot of Lynch in preseason, I imagine. People buying Lynch should take this risk into account and not overestimate his worth. I don't think Lynch will be a Top 10 back this year.

That said? Still buying across my leagues as an RB2. I think the Raiders line will make up for any potential slippage Lynch may have had in his game, and if he hasn't lost a step? Huge upside. I expect that he will bring to the table something similar that Blount did in NE last year. The two are similar in age, and I think Lynch is that much more talented to make up for the year he has on Blount in age.

I don't think he'll bust -- he'll lose carries in being primarily a first down/short yardage back, as I think the Raiders will utilize Washington and Richard as they did last year on later downs and passing situations -- but he will fit into the Murray role nicely with 1K/10 TDs as achievable, 800/7 as probable. 

 
Dude went #9 in my rookie dynasty draft last week.  After the typical top 6, Howard, and Perine.  Really ticked off the guy at #10, too.

 
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Stompin' Tom Connors said:
I'll take a stance somewhere in between you and Mavis. I think Lynch can still be effective in the NFL -- things soured for him in SEA and  while I don't think him being out of the league for a year is problematic (nor are any injuries he may have suffered in his last season with the Seahawks, although you never brought up any injury concern in your post, Saboo), I do agree that there is risk that he may not be the same Lynch we were used to seeing in SEA given age, mileage, and the rust that he'll need to shake off in the preseason. 

I am not taking his TD run in OTA as proof he's back -- it's practice, for goodness sakes -- and I do think that there is good potential he may have lost a step, but it will be very hard to confirm until WK 1 as we won't see a lot of Lynch in preseason, I imagine. People buying Lynch should take this risk into account and not overestimate his worth. I don't think Lynch will be a Top 10 back this year.

That said? Still buying across my leagues as an RB2. I think the Raiders line will make up for any potential slippage Lynch may have had in his game, and if he hasn't lost a step? Huge upside. I expect that he will bring to the table something similar that Blount did in NE last year. The two are similar in age, and I think Lynch is that much more talented to make up for the year he has on Blount in age.

I don't think he'll bust -- he'll lose carries in being primarily a first down/short yardage back, as I think the Raiders will utilize Washington and Richard as they did last year on later downs and passing situations -- but he will fit into the Murray role nicely with 1K/10 TDs as achievable, 800/7 as probable. 
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Practice matters for things such as this, see the burst, if he can follow blockers, so his practice look matters here. People live and die by a glorified practice in the combine. I take a guy in pads in practice over an underwear olympics. Also, how many of people care about how people look in practice? We are here licking up every practice report to get the feel of our players every chance we can get, but now...dont matter? 

 
Mavis said:
Practice matters for things such as this, see the burst, if he can follow blockers, so his practice look matters here. People live and die by a glorified practice in the combine. I take a guy in pads in practice over an underwear olympics. Also, how many of people care about how people look in practice? We are here licking up every practice report to get the feel of our players every chance we can get, but now...dont matter? 
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Interesting statement, given that the video you posted that you are basing your opinion on shows non-contact, non-pad workouts. So much closer to guys in their under(armor)wear than guys in pads playing full speed.

I am not saying the way a player looks in practice is meaningless. But rather, I think it's better to wait until we actually see some live padded scrimmages at full speed/contact to really gauge how Lynch looks, good or bad.

 
Stompin' Tom Connors said:
Interesting statement, given that the video you posted that you are basing your opinion on shows non-contact, non-pad workouts. So much closer to guys in their under(armor)wear than guys in pads playing full speed.

I am not saying the way a player looks in practice is meaningless. But rather, I think it's better to wait until we actually see some live padded scrimmages at full speed/contact to really gauge how Lynch looks, good or bad.
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Helmets/pads kinda the same, but I see your point. I dont need wait to see, he is a stud who was hurt in his most recent season and then missed a year on his own accord and is now back, he should need to show you that he cant, not that he can. I'll take that approach instead, you can take the wait and see approach. Especially since the preseason and camp wont tell u anything more than now, he will see so few snaps. I'll take a stud running behind a great OLine until he shows me that he cant do it while healthy. I know shocker right, someone actually trusts a stud to be a stud and not panicking or splitting hairs based off what we know now? He is no more likely to bust than Gurley this year and Gurley will be taken way higher. Great players can bust just as easy, I'll go with the offense, talent and OLine all making a good upside play.  Its football, that happens. The gun shy panic in the fantasy world is why you have people who beg and plead for advice. This is Lynch, not a flash in the pan coming back. His history is pretty clean until his last year he played. 

 
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Mavis said:
Helmets/pads kinda the same, but I see your point. I dont need wait to see, he is a stud who was hurt in his most recent season and then missed a year on his own accord and is now back, he should need to show you that he cant, not that he can. I'll take that approach instead, you can take the wait and see approach. Especially since the preseason and camp wont tell u anything more than now, he will see so few snaps. I'll take a stud running behind a great OLine until he shows me that he cant do it while healthy. I know shocker right, someone actually trusts a stud to be a stud and not panicking or splitting hairs based off what we know now? He is no more likely to bust than Gurley this year and Gurley will be taken way higher. Great players can bust just as easy, I'll go with the offense, talent and OLine all making a good upside play.  Its football, that happens. The gun shy panic in the fantasy world is why you have people who beg and plead for advice. This is Lynch, not a flash in the pan coming back. His history is pretty clean until his last year he played. 
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Love the optimism, and share some to the extent in that I think Lynch will be solid, but  I think your line of thinking (Lynch sustaining a stud level, that at 31 he's as likely to bust as a guy 9 years younger with only two seasons under his belt, etc.) is a little overinflated, and bucks all the research (here is just one of many) that shows the ongoing decline of RBs past the age of 26, exacerbated by the number of carries they have endured over their career. Lynch is on the wrong side of both equations.

As a Raider fan, hope we do see Lynch flash Beastmode and be just as effective wearing Silver & Black as he did in college navy, action green, and wolf gray.  

But the expectation that he will simply step right on the field and look like the 2012-2014 version Lynch is much more myopic and risky, IMHO, than being cautious about Lynch continuing the actual decline in yardage he's seen over the last 2-3 years, and the fact that his role and opportunity is going to be a lot different than it was in SEA, where the offense went through him. 

Time will tell.

 
I’m not saying he won’t be somewhat effective, but to expect a 31 year rb who missed an entire season to come back and be the Marshawn Lynch of old is asking a lot.

Fantasy wise I wouldn’t waste a premium pick on him. That said, he may have some value if taken in the right place, but I certainly won’t be the one who jumps on a 31 year old rb coming off an injury riddled season and then a year of retirement. 

 
I'm relatively pessimistic about Lynch for this season. Most RBs hit a wall sometime around the age of 30. Once a RB reaches his late 20s, each year is a roll of the dice as we wait to see if he still has what it takes, or if the extra year of aging / accumulation of injuries has reached the point where he isn't a good RB any more.

That leads in to two big concerns about Lynch. First, his last good season was in 2014, at age 28. Now it is 2017 and he is 31 years old. That means means that he needs to survive 3 rolls of the dice and not just one. Did his body hit the wall at age 29? At age 30? At age 31?

He had a great season at age 28, now let's see what he does at age 31. The obvious historical comparison to make is with other RBs who had a great season at age 28 - let's see what they did at age 31. I found 25 comparable RBs (who had 50+ VBD at age 28, non-ppr, and entered the NFL between 1983 and 2006) - only 32% (8/25) of them were fantasy starters at age 31, and only 8% (2/25) had 50+ VBD at age 31:

Code: 
Age31vbd    Name          Age28vbd
0    Shaun Alexander      221
0    Marshall Faulk       206
26   LaDainian Tomlinson  174
0    Eric Dickerson       154
26   Terry Allen          153
0    Brian Westbrook      147
??   Marshawn Lynch*      144
41   Priest Holmes        142
0    Roger Craig          124
121  Curtis Martin        115
0    Barry Sanders        106
0    Christian Okoye      101
0    Robert Smith          88
0    Jamal Lewis           85
0    Charlie Garner        80
0    Michael Turner        80
0    Earnest Byner         71
0    Thurman Thomas        71
0    Harvey Williams       66
80   Ricky Watters         63
30   Albert Bentley        61
0    Reggie Bush*          59
0    Neal Anderson         54
0    Adrian Murrell        54
19   James Stewart         52
26   Corey Dillon          51
(And none of the guys with 0 VBD at age 31 went on to have positive VBD at age 32+.  The only positive VBD season that any of these guys had at age 32+ is Corey Dillon's age 32 season, which was good for 13 VBD.)

The second concern is that it looked like Lynch might have already hit the wall by the time he was 29. His numbers during the 2015 season were way worse than what he had done over his previous 4 seasons in Seattle, and way worse than what Rawls did for Seattle that season: 3.8 YPC on 111 carries, 6.2 YPR on 13 receptions, along with low yardage and TD totals. RBs who have that kind of decline at age 29 usually don't bounce back.

 
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ZWK said:
I'm relatively pessimistic about Lynch for this season. Most RBs hit a wall sometime around the age of 30. Once a RB reaches his late 20s, each year is a roll of the dice as we wait to see if he still has what it takes, or if the extra year of aging / accumulation of injuries has reached the point where he isn't a good RB any more.

That leads in to two big concerns about Lynch. First, his last good season was in 2014, at age 28. Now it is 2017 and he is 31 years old. That means means that he needs to survive 3 rolls of the dice and not just one. Did his body hit the wall at age 29? At age 30? At age 31?

He had a great season at age 28, now let's see what he does at age 31. The obvious historical comparison to make is with other RBs who had a great season at age 28 - let's see what they did at age 31. I found 25 comparable RBs (who had 50+ VBD at age 28, non-ppr, and entered the NFL between 1983 and 2006) - only 32% (8/25) of them were fantasy starters at age 31, and only 8% (2/25) had 50+ VBD at age 31:

Code: 
Age31vbd    Name          Age28vbd
0    Shaun Alexander      221
0    Marshall Faulk       206
26   LaDainian Tomlinson  174
0    Eric Dickerson       154
26   Terry Allen          153
0    Brian Westbrook      147
??   Marshawn Lynch*      144
41   Priest Holmes        142
0    Roger Craig          124
121  Curtis Martin        115
0    Barry Sanders        106
0    Christian Okoye      101
0    Robert Smith          88
0    Jamal Lewis           85
0    Charlie Garner        80
0    Michael Turner        80
0    Earnest Byner         71
0    Thurman Thomas        71
0    Harvey Williams       66
80   Ricky Watters         63
30   Albert Bentley        61
0    Reggie Bush*          59
0    Neal Anderson         54
0    Adrian Murrell        54
19   James Stewart         52
26   Corey Dillon          51
(And none of the guys with 0 VBD at age 31 went on to have positive VBD at age 32+.  The only positive VBD season that any of these guys had at age 32+ is Corey Dillon's age 32 season, which was good for 13 VBD.)

The second concern is that it looked like Lynch might have already hit the wall by the time he was 29. His numbers during the 2015 season were way worse than what he had done over his previous 4 seasons in Seattle, and way worse than what Rawls did for Seattle that season: 3.8 YPC on 111 carries, 6.2 YPR on 13 receptions, along with low yardage and TD totals. RBs who have that kind of decline at age 29 usually don't bounce back.
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Stop trying to get all scientific... This is Beast Mode!

1500 yards, 12 TDs. Guaranteed.  :gang2:

 
The San Jose Mercury News' Jimmy Durkin suggests the Raiders could hold Marshawn Lynch under 200 carries.

Durkin believes Lynch equaling Latavius Murray's 195-carry total from last year "should suffice," even suggesting Lynch could end up with "perhaps less" if sophomores DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard earn increased roles. After Lynch took a year off from football, it's hard to imagine the Raiders suddenly forcing him back into 300-carry usage, particularly in an offense so explosive in the passing game. Lynch remains a health risk at age 31 after his body broke down in 2015, leading Lynch into a year-long "retirement." Lynch is one of the riskiest early-round fantasy picks on the board this year.

Source: San Jose Mercury News
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Penguin said:
Pretty much every projection I've seen has him between 205-220 carries
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Well, as Mike Tyson famously said, "Everyone has a plan 'till they get punched in the mouth".

That would be nice but the likelihood, given his age and injury history, is that he will get injured, opening up a nice opportunity for Washington and Jalen Richard. I think Washington would be the #1 guy and Richard the change of pace in that scenario. 

 
People missing the boat on Marshawn. I don't care about age, I don't care about what happened last year.  Questions about his heart? Marshawn has always been an Oakland guy and desperately wanted to play for the Raiders.  But I don't care about that either. 

I care about having the unquestioned #1 RB (make no mistake about it Marshawn is the #1, at worst he cedes passing game duties) on what looks to be one of the leagues highest scoring offenses.  He may average 3.5 YPC and barely break 1,000 yards but double digit TDs is as close to a lock as those things can be (even Emmitt had a 4 rush TD season at age 28) and he might have more TD upside than anyone not named David Johnson or Ezekial Elliot.

 
Chaka said:
People missing the boat on Marshawn. I don't care about age, I don't care about what happened last year.  Questions about his heart? Marshawn has always been an Oakland guy and desperately wanted to play for the Raiders.  But I don't care about that either. 

I care about having the unquestioned #1 RB (make no mistake about it Marshawn is the #1, at worst he cedes passing game duties) on what looks to be one of the leagues highest scoring offenses.  He may average 3.5 YPC and barely break 1,000 yards but double digit TDs is as close to a lock as those things can be (even Emmitt had a 4 rush TD season at age 28) and he might have more TD upside than anyone not named David Johnson or Ezekial Elliot.
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Have you ever heard the phrase "The spirit is willing but the flesh is weak"?

 
Chaka said:
People missing the boat on Marshawn. I don't care about age, I don't care about what happened last year.  Questions about his heart? Marshawn has always been an Oakland guy and desperately wanted to play for the Raiders.  But I don't care about that either. 

I care about having the unquestioned #1 RB (make no mistake about it Marshawn is the #1, at worst he cedes passing game duties) on what looks to be one of the leagues highest scoring offenses.  He may average 3.5 YPC and barely break 1,000 yards but double digit TDs is as close to a lock as those things can be (even Emmitt had a 4 rush TD season at age 28) and he might have more TD upside than anyone not named David Johnson or Ezekial Elliot.
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This is the camp that I am in for the most part.  I agree that Lynch is going to be the #1 RB on a potent O but I do worry about his health at age 31.  If I do end up with Lynch on my FF team, I am definitely grabbing Washington.   

 
Remember when Arian Foster signed with the Dolphins last summer?

A lot of folks on here thought he was going to rush for 1000 yards and be a RB1/2. Seems like a long time ago, right?

I am just saying, the record of storied RBs in their 30s with new teams is not that great, think of Franco Harris with the Seahawks, Tony Dorsett with the Broncos, Curt Warner with the Rams, Larry Johnson with the Bengals, even Emmitt Smith with the Cards. 

Time is cruel, and for a RB, once it's gone, it's gone. 

 
Miro Z said:
Remember when Arian Foster signed with the Dolphins last summer?

A lot of folks on here thought he was going to rush for 1000 yards and be a RB1/2. Seems like a long time ago, right?

I am just saying, the record of storied RBs in their 30s with new teams is not that great, think of Franco Harris with the Seahawks, Tony Dorsett with the Broncos, Curt Warner with the Rams, Larry Johnson with the Bengals, even Emmitt Smith with the Cards. 

Time is cruel, and for a RB, once it's gone, it's gone. 
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Foster's problem wasn't that he lost "it" his problem was he couldn't stay on the field and the his persistent injuries took "it" from him. He managed to play in 80 of 128 career games (missing 31% of his games due to injury). Marshawn has played in 127 of 144 career games (12% miss game rate).  It seems like an off-base comparison, and I don't think a lot of people were so high on Arian last summer.

The big factor for me is that Marshawn really seems excited to play again, something people were speculating was a real problem in his last season with Seattle and is still a red flag today. But if Marshawn is hungry again playing and behind the Oakland offensive line in what looks like a legitimately high powered offense then I am willing to roll the dice on him.

 
TripItUp said:
For those drafting Marshawn at his 3rd round ADP, how many carries and TDs are you projecting?
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Ideally 250 touches and 10-12 TDs. But I think he has the highest RB TD upside outside of Zeke.

 
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Anyone see the NFL network's live training camp report? Lynch stopped by during Colleen Wolfe and Michael Robinson's broadcast with the Raiders. Pure Lynch. Absolutely hysterical.

:lmao:

 
Chaka said:
Foster's problem wasn't that he lost "it" his problem was he couldn't stay on the field and the his persistent injuries took "it" from him. He managed to play in 80 of 128 career games (missing 31% of his games due to injury). Marshawn has played in 127 of 144 career games (12% miss game rate).  It seems like an off-base comparison, and I don't think a lot of people were so high on Arian last summer.

The big factor for me is that Marshawn really seems excited to play again, something people were speculating was a real problem in his last season with Seattle and is still a red flag today. But if Marshawn is hungry again playing and behind the Oakland offensive line in what looks like a legitimately high powered offense then I am willing to roll the dice on him.
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Well, the spirit may be willing but the flesh is weak. Lynch only ran for 417 yards and 3 TDs his last year in the league. 

I don't buy the argument that he is "fresh" after a year out either. If anything, for a RB, a year away from conditioning is a negative, not a positive.

 
Miro Z said:
If anything, for a RB, a year away from conditioning is a negative, not a positive.
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Anyway to back this up?

I'm not saying you're wrong (frankly I do not have any idea) but players often come back from having missed a season with injuries without missing a beat. While I do see your point, I can also buy the argument that a year off from the abuse that RBs take being a good thing for Lynch. He's had and still has plenty of time to get back into football shape.

31 is getting old for a RB but being fresh and motivated and running behind a great o-line works in his favor. I'm not sure how Arian Foster is applicable at all, because he had trouble staying healthy all throughout his career while Lynch has been very durable.   

I'll go with 235 carries for 1050 yards with 10 TDs and 28 catches for 210 yards and another TD.

 
Miro Z said:
Well, the spirit may be willing but the flesh is weak. Lynch only ran for 417 yards and 3 TDs his last year in the league. 

I don't buy the argument that he is "fresh" after a year out either. If anything, for a RB, a year away from conditioning is a negative, not a positive.
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Yes he had a bad, and abbreviated, 2015. Playing for a team he was feuding with behind a shoddy offensive line (yes I know what Thomas Rawls did that year).

If you mentally check-out, which he did, your stats are going to suffer. We know he was mentally checked-out, (Read the off-season news reports for those seasons and it becomes pretty clear there was a show down, over money, about to happen between Lynch and the club).   I am not quite as sure about where his ability level was in 2015.

The biggest concern is the fact that he did mentally check-out and  didn't want to play for the Seahawks in 2015 or 2016. That is a ginormous red flag and shouldn't be ignored by anyone in this discussion. Marshawn quit on his team.

Maybe he can't get that passion back which is a legitimate concern. Once the desire to play goes away I am not sure you can get it back.

But right now Lynch seems not only happy to be playing again but passionately engaged in everything related to being back in his home town of Oakland. That is reason for more than a little cautious optimism.

He is healthy, he says and does everything to indicate that he's hungry too. Throw in the best offensive line and most high powered offense he has ever played with and you have the makings of a great come-back season.

And even if his body is broken, if he is really as passionate about playing in Oakland as he seems, and doesn't get injured, he is still on the short list of RBs that could reasonably be expected to lead the league in TDs.

Now...where is he being drafted among RBs?

 
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