It’s tough to stray too much from the company line as it relates to the Broncos offense moving forward in 2014. While they laid an egg in the SuperBowl, they went up against a team that might have fielded the best defense of the last 20-25 years. Stranger things have happened in that game. And while there are some differences that the 2014 Broncos will feature/face (NFC West on the schedule/new feature RB/Sanders-for-Decker), it seems impossible that this is an offense that will in any way shape or form struggle. Considering that their RB1 last year, Knowshon Moreno, who felt like a roster afterthought as recently as last years training camp put up a 1586/13 season in large part because as a pass protector, the Broncos felt most comfortable with him on the field…the Broncos with Manning at the helm feel almost plug-and-play at this juncture. At the WR/TE positions, that might be the case although they do have some great talent here. At RB…I think that’s a question that really needs to be scrutinized. But as for QB…?
Peyton Manning – Is he going to go for 5500/55 again? I don’t know. Last year was pretty magical almost from his first snap. 7 TD’s in the opener. 4 receivers with 10(+) TD’s. The overall run of unstoppability. At this point, it would almost be foolish to say Peyton couldn’t do something on the football field. But I do think it’s worth pointing out some factors that may contribute to a different non-record setting type of season for him.
Knowshon – while Moreno seems to invariably carry some degree of stink on him because we perceive that he never realized his potential after being the 12th overall selection of the Broncos in 2009. But he was HUGE last year. Not just in terms of production but in terms of workload. Logging 724 snaps, he was able to assume a giant level of responsibility. He didn’t fumble the ball. He handled his pass protection assignments with aplomb. While he logged 301 touches, what he did on the 423 snaps where he didn’t touch the ball was almost as important. And while Monte Ball might have better running skills than Moreno, has he learned to protect the ball, will he transition seamlessly with regard to pass protection? Manning likes consistency and having ‘a guy’ in the backfield he trusts is a component of his foundation. He trusted Moreno. Will he trust Ball? As important will be if Fox trusts Ball.
NFC West – Last year, the schedule favored the Broncos passing game as the NFC East whose defenses allowed opponents to put up an average of 4416 passing yards and sack the QB 35 times. This year, the NFC West is on the docket. Last year, those defenses on average allowed only 3784 passing yards and sacked the QB 46 times. We know that Peyton struggles when pressured, or at least, that’s when he’s most prone to struggle. We also know that in 2014, he faces three of those defenses between Week 3-7, a period which also includes a bye.
Emmanuel Sanders – A lot of folks seem to be perfectly fine that Sanders can easily replace Decker. One thing I would point out. In Decker’s 2nd season…with Tim Tebow as his QB, he put up a 44/612/8 line. In Sanders 4th season with Roethlisberger as his QB, Sander put up a 67/740/6 line. Sanders is listed at 5’11 180. Decker 6’3 215. I’m not as confident as some others appear to be that this is a like-for-like replacement.
Now at the end of the day, if there is one person in the NFL that can find a way to navigate these changes, it’s Peyton. So I’m certainly not predicting doom and gloom. However, I see a Top 3 level of FF QB’s this year. Peyton is not necessarily #1.
Monte Ball – He ascends to perhaps the best RB job in the NFL with the Broncos being more than happy to allow Moreno to exit stage left. Ball is seen as having an unobstructed path to the same level (if not more) of workload that Moreno had last year as Ronnie Hillman and CJ Anderson are the only back-ups on the roster. Hillman’s inability to hold onto the football last year cost him dearly. But Ball struggled in this capacity as well. The RB position has been de-emphasized in the NFL in terms of having ‘one guy’. Some teams do, but they are teams built around the run game a lot of the time. For DEN, the ground game is a secondary component to an offense built around not just a passing game, but perhaps the most cerebral QB to ever play the game. Moreno was not the most talented or even best runner on the Broncos roster last year. But he seemed to emerge because he was by far, the least likely to screw up. Ball’s reliability and the Broncos trust in him appeared to grow as the season wore on. But will that trust be enough to place the same workload on a young RB who they may not be as willing to ride into the ground? I’m not as convinced that Ball becomes ‘THE GUY’ like Moreno was ‘THE GUY’ last season. His role definitely expands greatly. But to expect the type of numbers Moreno put up last year may be a tad optimistic.
Demaryius Thomas – Thomas is an incredibly consistent big time WR. He almost never provides a horrible game in your boxscore. At the same time, his propensity for ridiculous boxscore smashing games isn’t as high as you would think from a guy whose has averaged 1432/12 the last two seasons. What Thomas provides is rock solid and at the same time elite production that you can most likely bank on 10-11 weeks (out of 13) of the season. With Decker gone, will his production grown that much more? I’m not as inclined to believe that because 1) I don’t think the Broncos will throw for 5500 yards again and 2) I see there are still enough pass catchers in DEN to absorb Decker’s absent production. Thomas is going WR2 at the moment and that’s fair because he doesn’t have the 2000 yard upside of Megatron, but he seems more stable than Dez, Julio, Marshall, A.J group behind him.
Emmanuel Sanders/Wes Welker – Did the Broncos really need to replace Eric Decker? As I mentioned above, Decker was one of 4 guys to catch 10 or more TD’s from Peyton last year. So what that tells me is that the Broncos still have 3 of those guys remaining on their roster. Is Wes Welker probably catching passes for the last time from Peyton in 2014? Likely. But he quickly became Peyton’s security blanket and I would suspect that he’ll maintain that role with a high degree of proficiency. Peyton throws to the open guy. While in the season’s first 9 games, Welker caught 8 TD’s, once teams started to clamp down there, Peyton went elsewhere with the ball (Decker caught 8 in the seasons final 5 games). The only WR assured of getting his on a week-to-week basis is Demaryius because of his elite ability. Decker was an underrated deep threat and we’ll see if having a guy like Peyton opens up more opportunity for Sanders downfield than he’s used to. But let’s not forget that the Broncos also drafted Cody Lattimer. While he profiles no better than the #5 option in the passing game his rookie year, if there is a QB who can make use of such a player situationally, it is Lattimer. My point is that in a straight up comparison, I like Decker better than Sanders in terms of talent and ability to produce. Sanders will carve out a fine role for himself in DEN and likely put up a career year. But he’ll fall short of what Decker did…I think by a significant margin.
Julius Thomas – Thomas came on in a big way last year. Whether he belongs as part of a holy trinity of TE’s to be drafted in the first three rounds is the question that I think most have to figure out. The TE position is deep this year or at least it has players who feel like they can produce at similar levels when you start looking at the TE6 position down to as far as TE15. If you do draft Thomas, it’s not just that you are choosing him over similarly ranked players like Andre Ellington or Ryan Mathews, but that you are counting on him almost to increase his production level to a point that makes that delta more worthwhile than being a on the mediocre train for TE’s that you can jump on fairly late. Graham is going Round 1 because he’s shown he provides elite WR1 numbers from the TE position. Gronk is going end of the 3rd round because people have questions about his durability, but not about his ability to produce when he’s healthy. But in a season where Manning broke the single season yardage record, Thomas produced 788 in 14 games (900 in a pro-rated 16 game schedule). I get that if Gronk is ready come Week 1, his draft status will ascend into Round 2. But I’m not sold on Thomas yet as a difference maker you can count on at the position. Before the advent of Graham/Gronk the best TE’s went in Round 4 generally. Thomas strikes me as a producer of numbers we expected of the best TE’s back in 2009-2010. Yet, we’re seeing him go Round 3. Middle of Round 3 too. I think that’s rich.
The fact is, the DEN offense could produce 600-700 fewer yards in 2014 and still have a decent shot at finishing as the NFL’s #1 offense. And let’s say that happened, they’re still going to be considered as a very dangerous team and one that will be well positioned to get back to the SuperBowl. But we’re talking about an offense that ran 1156 plays from scrimmage last season. They scored 606 points setting the all-time record. They’ll face the strongest defensive division in the NFL in 2014 (versus one of the weakest in 2013, the NFC East). Whether you like them or not, Decker and Moreno were BIG TIME contributors to the cause last year. Their replacements have question marks. I see some fall back.
Predictions
Manning – 426 Completions, 652 Attempts 5034 Passing Yards, 39 TD’s 13 INT’s; 28 Rushes, 3 Yards.
Ball – 241 Rushes 1068 Rushing Yards 9 TD’s; 32 Receptions 229 Receiving Yards 1 TD.
Hillman – 78 Rushes, 380 Rushing Yards, 42 Receptions 341 Receiving Yards 1 TD.
Anderson – 42 Rushes 123 Rusing Yards, 5 TD’s; 1 Reception 6 Yards.
Demaryius – 90 Receptions 1398 Receiving Yards 12 TD’s.
Welker – 68 Receptions 712 Receiving Yards, 7 TD’s.
Julius – 70 Receptions, 845 Receiving Yards 9 TD’s.
Sanders – 78 Receptions 943 Receiving Yards 7 TD’s.
Lattimer – 20 Receptions 365 Receiving Yards 2 TD’s.
