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2014 Player/Team Spotlight -- San Diego Chargers (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2014 Team & Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. We are trying something different this year. We will still publish more than 100 PLAYER SPOTLIGHT articles on the main site. But we are going to solicit discussion on them in these TEAM threads.

Why the change?

NFL success is contingent on the sum of a team's parts. To think that a wide receiver succeeds simply because of himself would be foolhardy. What if a team has three excellent fantasy WR options (e.g., Denver with Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker and Emmanuel Sanders)? Is a person's enthusiasm for a given player being properly offset against lesser expectations for one of their teammates?

Frankly, there was a lot of redundancy in former Spotlight threads. Asking you all to discuss the Giants new OC Ben McAdoo in threads for Eli Manning, Victor Cruz, Odell Beckham and Rashad Jennings seems inefficient. Now, in this new format, you can factor McAdoo (or any other team change) and it's impact on ALL the relevant skill players.

Thread Topic: San Diego Chargers

The NEW Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

  • Focus commentary on the fantasy relevant players in question, and your expectations for said players
  • Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
  • Avoid redundancies or things like "good posting" ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate
While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the relevant players on each team. We would note that it's important that your statistics makes sense. For example, projecting two running backs on the same team with 2,000 yards is an obvious gaffe. You might have three WR/TEs projected for 1,000+ yards, but that would be aggressive and a historical rarity. Back it up.

Projections should include:

  • For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
  • For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
  • For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
Recommended Players to Discuss:

  • QB Philip Rivers
  • RB Ryan Mathews
  • RB Donald Brown
  • RB Danny Woodhead
  • WR Keenan Allen
  • WR Vincent Brown
  • WR Eddie Royal
  • TE Antonio Gates
  • TE Ladarius Green
Each PLAYER SPOTLIGHT article will include:

  • Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
  • Links to thoughtful viewpoints from around the Web, including intriguing pull quotes from this thread
  • FBG Projections
 
For years, I wondered how Philip Rivers did it. He was so accurate…so prolific…so efficient. And it wasn’t’ like he had this tremendous stable of WR’s to throw to or unbelievable arm talent. I mean, one of his top WR’s during his career has been Malcom Floyd. And yet, year after year…he was one of the best real & FF QB’s. Then 2011-2012 happened and the wheels fell off. Can we attribute this to the Chargers firing Norv Turner 1-2 years too late? That’s certainly one factor. But Rivers who had not been turnover prone before, was coughing the ball up regularly. In those two seasons, he fumbled the ball 20 times (not fumbles lost – just fumbles) and was picked off 35 times.

One of the first things the new regime did for Rivers last year was get him a more diversified group of pass catchers. In came Danny Woodhead via FA. Via the draft, the Chargers selected Keenan Allen. Not superstars mind you, but capable players and professionals who went about their business and performed their specific roles responsibly and predictably. Mike McCoy has shown himself to be an adept offensive mind and was able to not only resurrect Philip Rivers’ career, but also Ryan Mathews. He made great use of Danny Woodhead and found a way to make Eddie Royal useful again. There are some open questions related to the Chargers though. What to make of Antonio Gates and Ladarius Green? Will Vincent Brown ever be worthwhile? Adding Donald Brown via a fairly sizable contract for RB’s these days to a crowded backfield…besides Rivers, there is a lot of gray associated with the Chargers. Not sure I can sort it out quite yet.

Philip Rivers – I marveled at Carson Palmer’s low draft raking (QB21). But Philip Rivers at QB14 may be even more astonishing. This is a guy:

  • Whose YPA has dipped below 7.95 once since 2007.
  • Whose Completion Rate has exceeded 64% 5 times in his career
  • Who even during his bad stretch of 2011-2012 averaged 352/555 4115 26.5/17.5
I don’t know why Nick Foles and RGIII are going QB6 & QB7 respectively when a guy like Philip Rivers is generally available 3 rounds later. Perhaps it’s me, but I don’t see the realistic upside with those two against Rivers when compared against the risk factors. Particularly in a draft where it feels like the consensus is building that there’s a definitive Top 3 and everybody else, Philip Rivers in Round 9 is almost jaw-dropping. Might the Chargers be going to a more run-heavy attack with the acquisition of Donald Brown to add to Mathews/Woodhead? Mmmm, I’m not necessarily sure. The Chargers finished the year on a 4 game win streak which saw them give the ball to Ryan Mathews 116 times (including receptions). Predictably, the heavy workload resulted in Mathews getting injured. Now, I get that Rivers only threw the ball 110 times during that stretch…but my feeling is that the Chargers aren’t going 16-0 next year and there will be times they have to air it out. Rivers has never needed a lot of attempts to be productive in FF. If he gets 550 over the course of 16 games, it’s more than enough, And I’ll get into the reason why I think Brown was acquired and why there’s enough for everyone to eat in SD. But ultimately, I think Rivers is back on track. He’s a safe bet that can provide some spectacular games.

Ryan Mathews/Donald Brown – So with Ryan Mathews finally recapturing the form that made him such a coveted commodity in the lead up to 2012 FF Draft Season (until he broke his collarbone)…why did the Chargers go out and get Donald Brown? I mentioned above that during SD season-ending 4 game win streak that Mathews tallied 114 touches (28.5/game). That’s too much. Not just for Mathews but any RB really. And obviously SD wants to see themselves in a position where they can lean on the run game when they are in the lead. And as much as they like Danny Woodhead, he’s not an RB that can help you kill the clock. Is Donald Brown the clock killer for SD…not necessarily, but going back to that 4 game stretch…Mathews averaged 40 snaps/game. In the 11 games prior to that (he had one game with 3 snaps…I eliminated that one), he averaged 29. Ultimately, I think the sweet spot for Mathews in terms of snaps/game is in that 30-35 area. When Mathews was on the field, he generally got the ball. His touch percentage was an astounding 64.58%. If you reduce that to 55-60% (still high), I think the Chargers are wanting to get the ball in Mathews hands 18-20 times/game…288-320 times over 16 games. That might be a little less than what he saw in 2013, but his touches weren’t distributed over 16 games that evenly (28.5 over the last 4 games, 17.63 over the first 11). And let’s be frank, Mathews does get dinged up…it’s part of his DNA. So it made sense to draft an insurance policy that could also double as an RB who could allow the Chargers to siphon physical carries away from Mathews when the situation warranted. That said, if you do draft Mathews, I think it’s necessary to handcuff him.

Danny Woodhead – There is a lot to like about Danny Woodhead. His versatility out of the backfield is almost unmatched. For a relatively small RB, he’s feisty and can get tough yards. What he’s not particularly good at is providing a real threat when he’s running the football. The last 3 years, a period that has covered 259 rushes, Woodhead’s longest run from scrimmage is 19 yards. It’s not that he’s ineffective (he sports a solid 4.2 YPC during that time). It’s just that if you are going to showcase him, why have him try and be a jack of all trades type RB. Take Darren Sproles. With NO, he averaged 63 carries/season but 77 receptions/season. It’s not that I think SD doesn’t want him carrying the ball…but I don’t think they want him doing it 106 times like he did last year. Sproles wasn’t a guy who backed up Pierre Thomas…he had his own package of plays that were passing game oriented. So I think you’ll see Woodhead’s role reduced in the run game because of the fit, not necessarily the performance.

Keenan Allen – What a nice surprise Kennan Allen turned out to be. The victim of being downgraded during the draft process because of poor measurable, which has become an annual occurrence, Allen simply came in and ascended to the WR1 role in SD quite seamlessly. The thing that struck me about Allen’s rookie year wasn’t really the production, but his consistency. If he had a bad yardage game, he put a TD up on the board. If he didn’t score, his yardage totals were generally at minimum acceptable. In short, he became a perfect WR2. I saw a recent report that indicated though that felt that Allen may already be close to his ceiling because of his lack of speed/athletic ability and it felt like the same trap scouts/teams fell into last year that led to Allen’s draft day slide. Let’s consider that Allen missed his first game and only 45 (out of 84) in Game 2. From that point forward, Allen played in 92% of SD’s offensive snaps. His numbers were 69/1012/8 which over 16 games prorates to 79/1157/9. His route running ability led to a very high 67.6% catch rate (although when your QB completes 70% of his passes, that will help). But what knocks this guy down? He’s a big target. On SD, he’s an unquestioned #1 WR. He produced very solid numbers without target overload. So even if SD becomes more run centric, Allen should still be fine to produce. None of this takes into account the fact that he already seems to go about his business the right way and those players generally see improvement from their rookie season. I may be railing against one scout/writers opinion, Allen’s ADP actually seems quite fair (WR12). Anyway, I like the guy.

Antonio Gates/Ladarius Green – When Green was drafted in 2012, he was seen as a raw toolsy prospect. That he would be a heavy bet to require some significant seasoning before he’d be ready to make any contributions on offense. Here we are in Year 3 and Green is probably going to lead a lot of sleeper lists. First off, aside from Keenan Allen, most FFers are not enamored of any other receiver targets on SD’s roster. Secondly, we may have finally started to see a significant drop off in Antonio Gates’ play during the second half of 2013. But lastly, and probably most importantly…Green really started to show flashes of the type of unique talent he could wind up being.

Let’s get one thing straight. Green is going TE14 now…generally in Round 12. Come August, you’re going to have to go to Round 7-8 if you really want him. He’s already showing up on everyone’s watch list and we haven’t come close to the volume of watch lists we’ll see come draft time. When all is said and done, I think he’ll be TE8 or TE9 in terms of draft ranking. But let’s remember, Green had a very good and tempting pre-season last year and it wound up resulting in Green being mostly invisible for the seasons first half. Blocking and route running has been the reasons given as to why Green has not been a greater part of SD’s offense. And while he showed more flashes during his 2nd year than 1st…should we expect Jordan Cameron or Rob Housler.

I think probably were looking at something in between. Lots of people seem to be writing Gates’ NFL obituary and certainly his play dropped off. But this is a guy that has 10 years of experience with Rivers. And he’s coming off his best and healthiest year since 2009. While he may not be the only TE in town anymore, he’s not going to be grabbing Gatorade for others. With that said, if Green has finally started to nail down some of the nuances of the game particularly related to drawbacks he’s had listed above…then SD doesn’t have the luxury to season him any more. He’s got to become a more consistent and present force in this offense.

Predictions

Rivers – 359 Completions 526 Attempts 4212 Passing Yards 29 TD’s 9 INT’s
Mathews – 254 Rushes 1193 Rushing Yards 10 TD’s; 20 Receptions 148 Receiving Yards 1 TD.
Woodhead - 58 Rushes 224 Rushing Yards 1 TD; 83 Receptions 648 Receiving Yards 4 TD’s.
D. Brown – 159 Rushes, 672 Rushing Yards; 14 Receptions 98 Receiving Yards.
Allen – 89 Receptions 1203 Receiving Yards 7 TD’s.
Gates – 41 Receptions 543 Receiving Yards 5 TD’s
Green – 44 Receptions 672 Receiving Yards 6 TD’s
V. Brown – 24 Receptions 395 Receiving Yards, 2 TD’s.
Royal – 31 Receptions 332 Receiving Yards 2 TD’s.


 
Keenan Allen – What a nice surprise Kennan Allen turned out to be. The victim of being downgraded during the draft process because of poor measurable, which has become an annual occurrence, Allen simply came in and ascended to the WR1 role in SD quite seamlessly. The thing that struck me about Allen’s rookie year wasn’t really the production, but his consistency. If he had a bad yardage game, he put a TD up on the board. If he didn’t score, his yardage totals were generally at minimum acceptable. In short, he became a perfect WR2. I saw a recent report that indicated though that felt that Allen may already be close to his ceiling because of his lack of speed/athletic ability and it felt like the same trap scouts/teams fell into last year that led to Allen’s draft day slide. Let’s consider that Allen missed his first game and only 45 (out of 84) in Game 2. From that point forward, Allen played in 92% of SD’s offensive snaps. His numbers were 69/1012/8 which over 16 games prorates to 79/1157/9. His route running ability led to a very high 67.6% catch rate (although when your QB completes 70% of his passes, that will help). But what knocks this guy down? He’s a big target. On SD, he’s an unquestioned #1 WR. He produced very solid numbers without target overload. So even if SD becomes more run centric, Allen should still be fine to produce. None of this takes into account the fact that he already seems to go about his business the right way and those players generally see improvement from their rookie season. I may be railing against one scout/writers opinion, Allen’s ADP actually seems quite fair (WR12). Anyway, I like the guy.
From week 4 on Allen was WR12, which is what his ADP is right now. The reason I've agreed that's around his ceiling is that he's got a lot of guys ahead of him with more game-breaking talent and offenses more conducive to big WR numbers. At WR12 you can't wrong since he has a very high floor he's not someone I expect to see in the top 5 at the end of the season.

 
cstu said:
Keenan Allen – What a nice surprise Kennan Allen turned out to be. The victim of being downgraded during the draft process because of poor measurable, which has become an annual occurrence, Allen simply came in and ascended to the WR1 role in SD quite seamlessly. The thing that struck me about Allen’s rookie year wasn’t really the production, but his consistency. If he had a bad yardage game, he put a TD up on the board. If he didn’t score, his yardage totals were generally at minimum acceptable. In short, he became a perfect WR2. I saw a recent report that indicated though that felt that Allen may already be close to his ceiling because of his lack of speed/athletic ability and it felt like the same trap scouts/teams fell into last year that led to Allen’s draft day slide. Let’s consider that Allen missed his first game and only 45 (out of 84) in Game 2. From that point forward, Allen played in 92% of SD’s offensive snaps. His numbers were 69/1012/8 which over 16 games prorates to 79/1157/9. His route running ability led to a very high 67.6% catch rate (although when your QB completes 70% of his passes, that will help). But what knocks this guy down? He’s a big target. On SD, he’s an unquestioned #1 WR. He produced very solid numbers without target overload. So even if SD becomes more run centric, Allen should still be fine to produce. None of this takes into account the fact that he already seems to go about his business the right way and those players generally see improvement from their rookie season. I may be railing against one scout/writers opinion, Allen’s ADP actually seems quite fair (WR12). Anyway, I like the guy.
From week 4 on Allen was WR12, which is what his ADP is right now. The reason I've agreed that's around his ceiling is that he's got a lot of guys ahead of him with more game-breaking talent and offenses more conducive to big WR numbers. At WR12 you can't wrong since he has a very high floor he's not someone I expect to see in the top 5 at the end of the season.
Previous post on Allen:

Allen played in 17 games this season -- regular season games 2-16 and both playoff games. He didn't play in week 1, then Floyd got hurt in the first half of game 2, and Allen got in for the rest of the game in his place (Floyd played 36 of 84 snaps, and Allen played 49 in that game).

From there forward (regular season games 3-16 and the 2 playoff games), Allen played 93.2% of the Chargers' offensive snaps. CalBear said he played "basically" 12 games, which is inaccurate. If you want to focus only on the regular season, IMO it makes sense to focus on the last 14 games. But I see no reason not to also include his 2 playoff games in any assessment of his performance, which brings us to 16 games. Very convenient.

In those 16 games, he had 77/1175/10 receiving on 110 targets with 4 drops and 1 fumble. (Note that ESPN and PFF both show 1 fumble, but Rotoworld and PFR both show 2 fumbles; not sure of the reason for the discrepancy.)

Rivers was intercepted 3 times targeting him, and I recall that Allen was specifically responsible on one of them, not sure about the other two. He will get in better sync with Rivers with another offseason to build upon this year, so I don't think the interceptions are a problem for Allen. I don't think 4 drops out of 81 catchable balls is bad at all for a rookie WR, and the fumble isn't a big deal.

(Note: all data from PFF.)

77/1175/10 equates to 177.5 points and 11.1 ppg in standard non-PPR format (not penalizing the fumble). For 2013, that would have ranked him as the #12 WR in total points and the #15 WR in ppg in that format.

That stat line equates to 254.5 points and 15.9 ppg in standard PPR format (1 PPR) (not penalizing the fumble). For 2013, that would have ranked him as the #14 WR in total points and the #18 WR in ppg in that format.

Beyond those numbers, consider the following:

Per PFF:

- Allen was the #10 overall WR.

- Allen was the #8 WR when considering only his receiving (i.e., ignoring rushing, blocking, etc.).

- Rivers had a 118.1 passer rating when targeting Allen, which is #8 among all WRs with more than 25 targets on the season.

- Allen was the #17 WR in Yards per Pass Route Run among all WRs with more than 25 targets on the season.

Per Football Outsiders:

- Allen was the #8 WR in Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR).

- Allen was the #5 WR in Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).

Per Advanced NFL Stats:

- Allen was the #8 WR in Win Probability Added (WPA).

- Allen was the #9 WR in Expected Points Added (EPA).

- Allen was the #7 WR in Success Rate among all WRs with more than 25 targets on the season.

- Allen was the #11 WR in Catch Rate among all WRs with more than 25 targets on the season.

- Allen was the #5 WR in Yards per Target (YPT) among all WRs with more than 25 targets on the season.

All of this seems to bode well for Allen's future. It seems reasonable to think he will improve going forward, and it also seems reasonable to think the Chargers offense could also improve around him (e.g., continuing offensive line improvement). IMO all of this suggests Allen will be a safe WR2 and potential low end WR1 for fantasy purposes over the next few years at least.
 
I don't think there is a magic number of snaps per game for Mathews, but if there was, it wouldn't be 30-35. He's a significantly better blocker than Woodhead and Brown. It would save him a beating if they would let him play more snaps where he doesn't touch the ball. It is insane that he touches the ball on 2/3 of his snaps. You are basically tipping your hand every time you put him in the game. If there is at least a veiled threat of a pass when he's in there, he might not be running into the teeth of the defense every time.

I think the Brown signing was a good one, though. They do need a backup and Woodhead clearly wasn't getting it done in relief of Mathews.

Super excited to watch Green this year. I've always liked Gates, but it's clearly time to start phasing him out.

 
Predictions

Rivers – 359 Completions 526 Attempts 4212 Passing Yards 29 TD’s 9 INT’s

Mathews – 254 Rushes 1193 Rushing Yards 10 TD’s; 20 Receptions 148 Receiving Yards 1 TD.

Woodhead - 58 Rushes 224 Rushing Yards 1 TD; 83 Receptions 648 Receiving Yards 4 TD’s.

D. Brown – 159 Rushes, 672 Rushing Yards; 14 Receptions 98 Receiving Yards.

Allen – 89 Receptions 1203 Receiving Yards 7 TD’s.

Gates – 41 Receptions 543 Receiving Yards 5 TD’s

Green – 44 Receptions 672 Receiving Yards 6 TD’s

V. Brown – 24 Receptions 395 Receiving Yards, 2 TD’s.

Royal – 31 Receptions 332 Receiving Yards 2 TD’s.
If we were guaranteed those #'s from Rivers, I'd sign on the dotted line right now....that's outstanding! and you're so right about the fact that he represents great ADP value, a few rounds after some of the other QB's like Foles, but will post nearly identical numbers..it's all about value here, and Rivers has it in spades. most people will shy away from him because of the drop in production during the second half of last season when SD discovered they had a solid running game..but I wouldn't bet on that trend continuing..they'll keep passing ,as always..

 
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