2014 Player/Team Spotlight -- Baltimore Ravens (1 Viewer)

2014 Team & Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. We are trying something different this year. We will still publish more than 100 PLAYER SPOTLIGHT articles on the main site. But we are going to solicit discussion on them in these TEAM threads.

Why the change?

NFL success is contingent on the sum of a team's parts. To think that a wide receiver succeeds simply because of himself would be foolhardy. What if a team has three excellent fantasy WR options (e.g., Denver with Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker and Emmanuel Sanders)? Is a person's enthusiasm for a given player being properly offset against lesser expectations for one of their teammates?

Frankly, there was a lot of redundancy in former Spotlight threads. Asking you all to discuss the Giants new OC Ben McAdoo in threads for Eli Manning, Victor Cruz, Odell Beckham and Rashad Jennings seems inefficient. Now, in this new format, you can factor McAdoo (or any other team change) and it's impact on ALL the relevant skill players.

Thread Topic: Baltimore Ravens

The NEW Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

• Focus commentary on the fantasy relevant players in question, and your expectations for said players
• Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
• Avoid redundancies or things like "good posting" ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the relevant players on each team. We would note that it's important that your statistics makes sense. For example, projecting two running backs on the same team with 2,000 yards is an obvious gaffe. You might have three WR/TEs projected for 1,000+ yards, but that would be aggressive and a historical rarity. Back it up.

Projections should include:

• For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
• For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
• For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Recommended Players to Discuss:

• QB Joe Flacco
• RB Ray Rice
• RB Bernard Pierce
• WR Torrey Smith
• WR Steve Smith
• WR Marlon Brown
• TE Dennis Pitta
• TE Owen Daniels

Each PLAYER SPOTLIGHT article will include:

• Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
• Links to thoughtful viewpoints from around the Web, including intriguing pull quotes from this thread
• FBG Projections

Hi Folks, We've had good comments on many of these threads. But as you can see, we're dying on this one. Can you jump in and let us know what you think?

J

Kubiak was hired to lead the offense. I expect lower ypa, higher completion %, more play action from the passing game along with more attempts and slightly higher ypc from the rbs.

Rice's suspension is obviously still a major question mark so I'll generate estimates based on the the assumption Rice will be eligible to play for the last half of the season.

Flacco: 575 passes, 350 completions (61%), 23 TDs, 17 ints, 4140 yards

Torrey Smith: 70 receptions, 1150 yards, 6 TDs

Steve Smith: 80 receptions, 1050 yards, 5 TDs

Marlon Brown: 50 receptions, 600 yards, 3 TDs

Dennis Pitta: 60 receptions, 700 yards, 6 TDs

Owen Daniels: 30 receptions, 300 yards, 2 TDs

Pierce: 35 receptions, 250 yards, 1 TDs

Rice: 15 receptions, 75 yards, 0 TDs

Pierce: 250 rushes, 1050 yards, 7 TDs

Rice: 150 rushes, 600 yards, 3 TDs

Others: 60 rushes, 240 yards, 2 TDs

I see Steve Smith and Pierce undervalued at their current ADPs

maf005 said:

Kubiak was hired to lead the offense. I expect lower ypa, higher completion %, more play action from the passing game along with more attempts and slightly higher ypc from the rbs.

Rice's suspension is obviously still a major question mark so I'll generate estimates based on the the assumption Rice will be eligible to play for the last half of the season.

Flacco: 575 passes, 350 completions (61%), 23 TDs, 17 ints, 4140 yards

Torrey Smith: 70 receptions, 1150 yards, 6 TDs

Steve Smith: 80 receptions, 1050 yards, 5 TDs

Marlon Brown: 50 receptions, 600 yards, 3 TDs

Dennis Pitta: 60 receptions, 700 yards, 6 TDs

Owen Daniels: 30 receptions, 300 yards, 2 TDs

Pierce: 35 receptions, 250 yards, 1 TDs

Rice: 15 receptions, 75 yards, 0 TDs

Pierce: 250 rushes, 1050 yards, 7 TDs

Rice: 150 rushes, 600 yards, 3 TDs

Others: 60 rushes, 240 yards, 2 TDs

I see Steve Smith and Pierce undervalued at their current ADPs

Click to expand...

I would probably flip Pierce and Rice- I'm assuming Rice misses only 4 games.

Projections on Steve Smith are difficult, but I think if he approaches 80 receptions he'll have more than 1050 yards. 65 for 850 seems more reasonable to me, withthe other receptions going to the TEs

renesauz said:

maf005 said:

Kubiak was hired to lead the offense. I expect lower ypa, higher completion %, more play action from the passing game along with more attempts and slightly higher ypc from the rbs.

Rice's suspension is obviously still a major question mark so I'll generate estimates based on the the assumption Rice will be eligible to play for the last half of the season.

Flacco: 575 passes, 350 completions (61%), 23 TDs, 17 ints, 4140 yards

Torrey Smith: 70 receptions, 1150 yards, 6 TDs

Steve Smith: 80 receptions, 1050 yards, 5 TDs

Marlon Brown: 50 receptions, 600 yards, 3 TDs

Dennis Pitta: 60 receptions, 700 yards, 6 TDs

Owen Daniels: 30 receptions, 300 yards, 2 TDs

Pierce: 35 receptions, 250 yards, 1 TDs

Rice: 15 receptions, 75 yards, 0 TDs

Pierce: 250 rushes, 1050 yards, 7 TDs

Rice: 150 rushes, 600 yards, 3 TDs

Others: 60 rushes, 240 yards, 2 TDs

I see Steve Smith and Pierce undervalued at their current ADPs

Click to expand...

I would probably flip Pierce and Rice- I'm assuming Rice misses only 4 games.

Projections on Steve Smith are difficult, but I think if he approaches 80 receptions he'll have more than 1050 yards. 65 for 850 seems more reasonable to me, withthe other receptions going to the TEs

Click to expand...

I have him pegged at 60 for 765. There has been a continuing downward trend and he almost retired. I just don't think there is much left in the tank.

I have Rice pegged as a feature back lite. His looming suspension doesn't scare me. As a drafter, getting Pierce should have priority anyway. Treat this situation like the Texans of old. Back in the day, (two years ago!) you had better have hand-cuffed Tate when you got Foster. Assuming you manage to get both Kubiak running backs, you have no reason to worry about the suspension. In fact, Rice's time off provides some feature back work for Pierce, which you may not get with either running back ordinarily.

Flacco had a short lived tenure of passing 600+ times. Based on Kubiak's history, I'd say the team won't attempt more than 585 passes. Expect the use of a lot of two tight end formations, so Pitta and Daniels should both get some targets. The wide receiver corpse does not have an Andre Johnson to hog up the attention, but I still think most of the targets will go to Smith. Rice will get the vast majority of running back receptions, but it's hard to tell exactly how much Kubiak use him in the passing game. Foster had lots of targets some years, not so much in others.

Only 3 teams in the NFL scored fewer TDs last year than the Ravens' 29. Texans, Jags, and Jets. That is sad company. For reference, the Bengals won the AFCN with 54 TDs and the Broncos led the league with 76.

They're going to have to get better at finishing drives if they're going to do anything as an offense this year. A big part of projecting Baltimore players is going to be figuring out if that was an anomaly or if we're going to be divvying up 29 touchdowns again. If we are, Flacco and maybe all of them are going to have problems for fantasy.

I don't have a good read on the RB situation. If Rice is suspended 4 games and then takes 60%, that's basically half of the snaps for each. I actually like the talent of both backs still, but does 50% of the snaps on this offense justify the ADP? Doubtful. So we're either looking for the offense to make a leap or for an injury to the guy we don't draft. I probably won't land either unless the situation gets clarity somehow.

swirvenirvin said:

renesauz said:

maf005 said:

Kubiak was hired to lead the offense. I expect lower ypa, higher completion %, more play action from the passing game along with more attempts and slightly higher ypc from the rbs.

Rice's suspension is obviously still a major question mark so I'll generate estimates based on the the assumption Rice will be eligible to play for the last half of the season.

Flacco: 575 passes, 350 completions (61%), 23 TDs, 17 ints, 4140 yards

Torrey Smith: 70 receptions, 1150 yards, 6 TDs

Steve Smith: 80 receptions, 1050 yards, 5 TDs

Marlon Brown: 50 receptions, 600 yards, 3 TDs

Dennis Pitta: 60 receptions, 700 yards, 6 TDs

Owen Daniels: 30 receptions, 300 yards, 2 TDs

Pierce: 35 receptions, 250 yards, 1 TDs

Rice: 15 receptions, 75 yards, 0 TDs

Pierce: 250 rushes, 1050 yards, 7 TDs

Rice: 150 rushes, 600 yards, 3 TDs

Others: 60 rushes, 240 yards, 2 TDs

I see Steve Smith and Pierce undervalued at their current ADPs

Click to expand...

I would probably flip Pierce and Rice- I'm assuming Rice misses only 4 games.

Projections on Steve Smith are difficult, but I think if he approaches 80 receptions he'll have more than 1050 yards. 65 for 850 seems more reasonable to me, withthe other receptions going to the TEs

Click to expand...

I have him pegged at 60 for 765. There has been a continuing downward trend and he almost retired. I just don't think there is much left in the tank.

Click to expand...

I want to make sure that whatever team I go to, they're going to get the best, in-shape 35-year-old guy they can get. If that happens to run through Bank of America Stadium, put your goggles on cause there's going to be blood and guts everywhere.I want to make sure that whatever team I go to, they're going to get the best, in-shape 35-year-old guy they can get. If that happens to run through Bank of America Stadium, put your goggles on cause there's going to be blood and guts everywhere.

Click to expand...

Tough call on Torrey Smith this weekend. You drafted him knowing that a lot of his value would come from a handful of long TDs - which will do you no good on your bench, the target distribution on 62 attempts last week is troubling to say the least, however. Going to be back and forth all week vs. Hopkins, Hawkins types in a PPR.