2014 Player/Team Spotlight -- Cincinnati Bengals (1 Viewer)

2014 Team & Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. We are trying something different this year. We will still publish more than 100 PLAYER SPOTLIGHT articles on the main site. But we are going to solicit discussion on them in these TEAM threads.

Why the change?

NFL success is contingent on the sum of a team's parts. To think that a wide receiver succeeds simply because of himself would be foolhardy. What if a team has three excellent fantasy WR options (e.g., Denver with Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker and Emmanuel Sanders)? Is a person's enthusiasm for a given player being properly offset against lesser expectations for one of their teammates?

Frankly, there was a lot of redundancy in former Spotlight threads. Asking you all to discuss the Giants new OC Ben McAdoo in threads for Eli Manning, Victor Cruz, Odell Beckham and Rashad Jennings seems inefficient. Now, in this new format, you can factor McAdoo (or any other team change) and it's impact on ALL the relevant skill players.

Thread Topic: Cincinnati Bengals

The NEW Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

• Focus commentary on the fantasy relevant players in question, and your expectations for said players
• Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
• Avoid redundancies or things like "good posting" ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the relevant players on each team. We would note that it's important that your statistics makes sense. For example, projecting two running backs on the same team with 2,000 yards is an obvious gaffe. You might have three WR/TEs projected for 1,000+ yards, but that would be aggressive and a historical rarity. Back it up.

Projections should include:

• For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
• For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
• For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Recommended Players to Discuss:

• QB Andy Dalton
• RB Giovani Bernard
• RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis
• RB Jeremy Hill
• WR A.J. Green
• WR Marvin Jones
• TE Jermaine Gresham
• TE Tyler Eifert

Each PLAYER SPOTLIGHT article will include:

• Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
• Links to thoughtful viewpoints from around the Web, including intriguing pull quotes from this thread
• FBG Projections

Cool stuff, I think that Sanu is a guy who possibly could warrant discussion too. But the fact that he was omitted from the original list should give you a sense of his value overall.

As has been often discussed around these parts, Hue Jackson is expected to be bringing much more of the ground attack to the offense this year and scaling back the overall pass attempts Dalton makes (hopefully improving the overall quality of said attempts in the process). I believe Jackson (or sources close to Jackson as it were) are looking for an offensive balance closer to Seattle's - where Wilson through I believe 407 passes as opposed to the (I think) like 580+ (or was it 530+) attempts for Dalton last year. Gruden moving on to Washington I think is largely seen as a positive by the fanbase - I know that I was in the camp of folks who wanted him fired and Hue promoted. Happily that wasn't necessary.

There's a lot of consternation it seems, especially from Gio owners, with the drafting of Hill. Personally I think this is a little overstated and that there will be more than enough carries/touches to go around for him and Hill now. Really in a lot of ways I think this offense could be reminiscent of the classic '88 Bengals offense that featured Boomer Esiason, Ickey Woods and James Brooks. That was a team that had a massive number of carries (when I looked back at the numbers I was surprised to realize even Stanley Wilson had over 100 carries). The one difference of course is that while that Bengals team had some good receivers they didn't have anyone remotely of the caliber of A.J. Green as a threat. Green will get his for sure. I think Marvin Jones is very exciting and will probably be the clear 2. I just don't know that he'll get the kind of reception totals that will excite anyway. I think he'll be like a peak-year Alvin Harper in terms of fantasy production.

One noticeable departure this year is Andrew Hawkins (who signed a deal that was too expensive IMO with Cleveland - good for Baby Hawk). While there might be a thought that Sanu could be a guy that would benefit some as a 3rd-WR my gut tells me that what instead will happen is that you'll see Gio line up in that Hawkins spot a good chunk of the time and take a lot of those Baby Hawk plays.

I feel like a grown-up is running the offense now with Hue in there. I really feel at times that Gruden was showcasing himself more than doing what may have been most prudent. I guess that overall I think there's more depth to Hue's philosphy.

As for Dalton - fantasy-wise he's tended to be underrated. The kind of guy you could draft as like the 18th QB off the board and get top-10 production for the price. I think the overall numbers get dialed back some but I still think he'll be solid in terms of fantasy. More like a top-line back-up than a cheap guy that can be your #1.

I'm not quite ready to throw numbers out there. I'll get back to that

ETA here's the 1988 Bengals stats. I put them up more so to show that the kind of balance that benefits both Hill and Gio is totally possible. I disagree with Ninja below - I think the pass attempts will be closer to 400 (an average of 25 per game). I think the rush attempts will be somewhere along the lines of 35 per game.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/cin/1988.htm

Hue had nothing to do with this '88 team of course, but it really is what I think. Green's numbers will be better than Eddie Brown's '88 numbers I am sure. I think that all of the nibbles of Eifert, Gresham, etc will come out of Marvin Jones. Having said all that I don't see any boost in A.J.'s numbers - I think that the ceiling is what he did last year and the year before.

-QG

I'm not that excited about anyone other than Hill in this offense, so I'm not going to go through projections right now, but I will say that with the change in OC, I think Green is a tough sell in redrafts. I want no part of him. Marvin Jones seemed like clearly the second best WR on the team, but again, I don't know if there will be enough passes to make him a significant fantasy force in 12 team leagues, because Sanu and Eifert will see some targets, too. I'm thinking there will only be around 500 passing attempts this year.

But on a positive note, I think Hill could be the offensive RoY. I know Sankey is popular, but Hill is going to be the unquestioned goal line back (I fear Greene might retain that role in TEN) and likely eat up most of the early down work, despite the love fest for Bernard and his 4.1 ypc. I came away impressed with Bernard last year, but I just don't see the incentive to use him over Hill if Hill is getting it done. Second round rookies aren't foolproof, so I'd say Gio could be a steal if Hill busts, but strangely, he hasn't lost any steam at all. He still carries a pretty hefty price tag. So right now he seems priced near his ceiling while Hill is extremely undervalued.

The main question for me here is will Hue Jackson run an up tempo offense or ball control?

I think it is clear that the Bengals will run the ball more. But if they run a fast paced no huddle version of the up tempo offense, they can do that without significantly reducing offensive plays. Possibly even adding more plays, and more plays should/will lead to more points.

The Ravens got to the Super Bowl running an up tempo offense and I think their were elements of no huddle used by the Bengals last season.

I have read conflicting reports. Here is one where I am hearing the players say that they will be an up tempo offense in 2014-

• Bengals' offense 'very up-tempo' under Hue Jackson
• By Kevin Patra
• Around the League writer
• Published: May 21, 2014

http://www.nfl.com/n...der-hue-jackson

Hue Jackson continues to tweak the Cincinnati Bengals' offense.


The Bengals were in the top 10 in the NFL in yards per game and points per game in 2013, but the new offensive coordinator isn't planning to run back the same offense Jay Gruden used to earn those stats.

Jackson has already discussed utilizing a power run game more heavily in 2013 -- and drafting Jeremy Hill in the second roundshould help that cause.

It now appears Jackson also plans to deploy a quicker-paced offense, according to Bengals players.

"Very up-tempo," wide receiver Marvin Jones told the team's official website. "A lot of aggression. No matter what period it is, you're going to see all aggression."

The Bengals conducted 1,097 scrimmage plays in 2013, sixth-most in the NFL (59 fewer than the top-rated Broncos), but it's the type of speed involved in those plays that Jackson would like to utilize to his advantage.


Given the skill players at Jackson's disposal, wearing down a defense with tempo is a smart strategy. Keeping defenses vanilla for quarterback Andy Dalton won't hurt, either.

One of those skill players, Giovani Bernard, told The Cincinnati Enquirer that he has already noticed a difference in the Bengals' offense in terms of both tempo and physicality under Jackson.

The quicker pace and emphasis on the running game should both benefit Bernard this season.

While questions persist about Dalton's future, the best upgrade the Bengals might have made toward earning a fourth straight playoff appearance was promoting Jackson to coordinator.

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However I have also heard the speculation similar to what QuizGuy66 is saying, that the offense will slow things down, similarly to what the Seahawks have done.

Hobson's Choice: Taylor-made roster?Geoff Hobson

Editor

Bengals.com

Excerpt:

Quote

Hey Geoff, Bengals fan since '81, love your coverage. Question: With most of the pieces back on both sides of the ball, do you think there should be major scheme adjustments from the new coordinators? My thoughts are more on the offensive side with power running and short throws to the tight ends to open up the long ball, but I'd like your take on it. Should 2014 feature major changes, or situational adjustments? Thanks. Ryan Flanigan Ripon, WI

RYAN: Thanks for the kind words and I’m a situational guy all the way.

Here’s a team that other than New Orleans is the only team in the NFL last year that was top ten in both offense and defense. Here’s a team that has made the playoffs three straight seasons. Only New England and Denver have done that in the AFC. Here’s a team that has won 30 games in the last three years. Why blow it all up? Tweak it. Massage it. Keep the ball. Drain the clock. You’ve got a top ten defense and special teams. Hog the ball, cut the risk, play slightly more conservative than the Tea Party, and manage the game.

You’ve heard me before on the offense. Everyone says it’s a passing league until Jan. 1. Then everyone wonders why you can’t win in the playoffs. RUN THE BALL! Yeah, they’re terribly inconsistent running the ball, but that’s because it’s been an afterthought instead of a staple.

New offensive coordinator Hue Jackson is committed to changing it and I think he’s also committed to taking the load off Andy Dalton. A big adjustment that has to make is cutting his pass attempts from 586 to closer to Russell Wilson’s number of 407.

To heck with the short stuff. The running game should open up the deep ball and with Jackson’s experience under Al Davis you can believe they’ll be running many more vertical routes.

On defense, the sense is that new coordinator Paul Guenther is going to blitz more than Mike Zimmer. Guenther’s passion is finding matchups the offense can’t counter. But other than that, you’ve got 10 starters back in the same system for the third-ranked defense. Just tweak it.

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I tend to trust what the players are saying more than I trust a writers opinion. But the possibility that the Bengals do slow their offense down would make a pretty significant impact on the number of plays we should be expecting them to run.

I have projections for the Bengals mostly done. But what I have done is based on an up tempo run heavy offense with 2TE similar to the Patriots of 2012.

I honestly think if the Bengals do slow things down that it hurts their chances to score and therefore their chances to win. If the offense takes a big step backward in production, I am not seeing that being good for Jacksons long term job security.

One note on those '88 stat totals - that was the Bengals team that invented the (full-time) no-huddle offense.

-QG

QuizGuy66 said:

One note on those '88 stat totals - that was the Bengals team that invented the (full-time) no-huddle offense.

-QG

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I have been reading up on the question of if the offense will be up tempo or not and the evidence is overwhelmingly yes.

Hue Jackson's energy ups the Bengals' offensive tempo

by Kaci Kurst @KaciKurstCN2
06/07/2014 07:30 AM

If you’ve paid attention to any of the Bengals offseason, you’ve definitely heard the word tempo thrown around when it comes to the offense. With Hue Jackson replacing Jay Gruden as the offensive coordinator after Gruden was hired by Washington, Jackson has talked all offseason about the tempo he wants this offense to play with.

“There’s a lot of up tempo stuff. We’re trying to move as quick as we can, and we did some of that with Jay, but Hue’s really stressing that a lot so that’s one of the biggest differences is how fast we’re going and doing everything” said Andy Dalton.

After watching the two OTA practices open to the media, it is definitely noticeable, as is the energy that Jackson brings. His voice is heard consistently throughout practice above any other voice, his energy mirroring the pace he expects from his players. If the team moves slowly between drills or coming out of huddles, they’ll hear about it.

Jackson won’t run a typical no-huddle offense, but he wants the Bengals to break the huddle quickly, get to the line, assess the defense, make any adjustments and snap the ball early. So far, Dalton seems to be handling the offense moving at a quicker pace well.

Along with tempo, Jackson has also emphasized the run game. “We know we need to run the football, we want to run the football,” said Jackson. “We’re not going to shy away from having to throw it when we need to, but I think in order to win and be a very good offensive football team you have to be able to run the ball. That’s going to be the starting point for us.”

Jackson and the Bengals backed that up by taking running back Jeremy Hill in the second round of the NFL Draft. While you can’t read into depth charts too much in the off season, Hill has already been running with the 2’s at OTAs.

As we head into mandatory mini-camp next week and the players put on pads, the tempo of the offense and emphasis of the run game will definitely be two things to continue to watch for.

http://mycn2.com/cn2-sports/hue-jackson-s-energy-ups-the-bengals-offensive-tempo%C2

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Bengals 2013 1097(-29sk) 1068 plays 587pa 6.9 ay/a 481ra (QB61+14WR) 406 3.6ypc 45% run 38% RB run
Bengals 2012 1016(-46sk) 970 plays 540pa 6.6 ay/a 430ra (-QB47+19WR) 364RB run 4.1ypc 44% run 37.5% RB run
Bengals 2011 1015(-25sk) 990 plays 535pa 6.2 ay/a 455ra (-QB37+10WR) 407RB run 3.9ypc 46% run 41% RB run


2013 Seahawks 973(-44sk) 929 plays 420pa 8.5ay/a 509ra (96QB 7WR) 4.3ypc
2012 Seahawks 974(-33sk) 941 plays 405pa 8.1ay/a 536ra (94QB 5WR) 4.8ypc

Slowing things down to the Seahawks pace would be a reduction of 70-140 plays.

One thing I was wondering about is how often the Bengals already did this last season. As they added 98 plays from the previous 2 seasons. As mentioned by Dalton in the quote above, they were already doing this somewhat last season, but that they plan to do it more consistently.

What are your thoughts on Mohammed Sanu QG?

Bengals focus on expanding Sanu's role


By Coley Harvey | ESPN.com
24 JUN 2014 http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/130509/bengals-focus-on-expanding-sanus-role

CINCINNATI -- James Urban took off his sunglasses, put them on the top of his Cincinnati Bengals hat and looked his interviewer squarely in the eye.

On the final day of the Bengals' organized team activities earlier this month, the receivers coach was all business. He admitted he messed up. He didn't handle one of his best playmakers properly last season and felt bad about it.

"Mo's a good football player," Urban said, referring to wideout Mohamed Sanu. "I asked too much of him last year. I spread him thin. It's sort of the old thing where too much of a good thing is just as good as not enough.

"That's a shame on me."

Urban has vowed to make up for it by re-expanding Sanu's role.

In 2013, Sanu shouldered the shame of being a second-year receiver who failed to produce in ways he had as a rookie. He caught only two touchdown passes despite appearing in nearly double the games he saw his first season. In his nine appearances in 2012, Sanu caught four touchdown passes. It seemed evident that he would be a good No. 2 receiver to pair with A.J. Green for years to come.

Then came the mixing and matching and tweaking of Sanu's role at the start of last season, followed by Marvin Jones' somewhat unexpected emergence from Week 8 on.

Sanu became old news. With 10 touchdowns, Jones was doing the scoring. Sanu was simply catching a standard slant in the slot here or a run-of-the-mill out route along the sideline there. His effectiveness had been diminished, and before Urban or anyone else could realize it, the season was over.

"He bounced around and played three different positions -- really four different positions -- and on any given play, we bounced him around and asked him to do tons," Urban said. "He got spread thin."

Sanu became slower and less explosive than the Bengals knew he could be, and than it appears he now is. Urban said he thinks Sanu was faster this spring. The wideout said he wasn't sure.

As a result of Sanu's lack of explosiveness, the Bengals were shy about putting him in the scenarios in which he thrived the year prior. Once Jones started playing well, Sanu's climb became significantly steeper. The new model was working. It made little sense to go backward.

Urban's takeaway from Sanu's all-but-lost year? Better watch practice and game repetitions to make sure his receivers aren't getting overworked. Urban spoke glowingly, for example, about Green insisting on wanting to push when coaches needed him to pull back. That resulted in Urban physically charting each of Green's snaps during OTAs and minicamp.

"All these things I talk about as far as watching reps and making sure he's fresh with A.J., I've got to do the same thing with Mo," Urban said. "I've got to do it with Marvin. I've got to do it with everybody. If they're going to run the way we ask them to run and do the things we ask them to do, I've got to keep my eye on it. And I didn't do that last year. That's a shame on me."

One of new offensive coordinator Hue Jackson's biggest changes in the Bengals' West Coast system will be a stepped-up tempo. Players are going to be required to get plays in faster and sprint up to the line of scrimmage. The object is to have little standing-around time and to get into a rhythm a less-conditioned defense theoretically won't be able to match.

"They've embraced what we're doing," Urban said. "There was a lot of talk about finish [during the spring practices]. Talking about doing things down the field. Most of these guys have been with me, been with us for the last four years or so. So they know what to expect, and we've done great things.

"So how do you get their attention? We get their attention by overemphasizing finishing, overemphasizing getting off the ball and getting out of the huddle and getting set."

Sanu believes the offense will be more of an attack-first scheme.

"We want to set the tone and set the tempo. It's about us controlling the game," Sanu said. "Never let the defense control the game. We've got to be able to control the game and handle those situations the way we want to handle them."

As far as Sanu is concerned, setting the tone and tempo could mean having him catch passes out of the slot, running free on reverses, pitching back a double reverse or lining up under center and deciding whether to pass or run.

The former high school quarterback had his share of trick plays in college. He threw four touchdown passes at Rutgers while also setting Big East records as a receiver. During his rookie year in the NFL, he hit Green in stride on a 73-yard touchdown pass that came on a play fake. Last season, Sanu completed a 25-yard pass to running back Giovani Bernard before catching a 6-yard TD pass from Andy Dalton three plays later.

"It just keeps them off balance and keeps them on their toes," Sanu said. "When we're able to do that, you never know where it's coming. We could run the ball, run the ball, run the ball because we've got great running backs and a great quarterback who can put the ball anywhere, and we have a great bunch of receivers who can catch it. So you have to keep them on their toes and pull out those trick plays when we need it."

Cincinnati will have some trickery this year, and it looks like Sanu will be a big part of it.

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A few random thoughts:

1. Beware of the TE injuries. Both guys are supposedly expected to be ready for the start of training camp. I've heard some rumors that one or both of the injuries are potentially more serious. Nothing concrete and odds are both are fine by the start of the season. But definitely something worth keeping your eye on. Especially with Gresham.

2. Cobi Hamilton is a guy to keep an eye on in deep dynasties as a stash. He should win a job as the #4 or 5 guy this year, but could easily work his way into the top 3 by the end of his rookie deal. None of the other guys are under contract beyond 2015 (though AJ obviously isn't going anywhere). Reports have been mostly positive on his performance after a slow start as a rookie.

3. I think BJGE is eventually cut. From the sounds of things, he will be competing with Rex Burkhead for the #3 RB spot and Rex has had a very good offseason. The 4th RB will likely be a special teamer (Cedric Peerman).

4. Even though the team will be a bit more run heavy, the dire predictions for the Bengals passing game are misplaced. There will be more deep throws than in recent years. Plus, the Bengals passing offense has been incredible (right up there with Denver in 2014) in the red zone throughout Dalton's tenure. I think Dalton still throws for around 30 TDs.

FF Ninja said:

I'm not that excited about anyone other than Hill in this offense, so I'm not going to go through projections right now, but I will say that with the change in OC, I think Green is a tough sell in redrafts. I want no part of him. Marvin Jones seemed like clearly the second best WR on the team, but again, I don't know if there will be enough passes to make him a significant fantasy force in 12 team leagues, because Sanu and Eifert will see some targets, too. I'm thinking there will only be around 500 passing attempts this year.

But on a positive note, I think Hill could be the offensive RoY. I know Sankey is popular, but Hill is going to be the unquestioned goal line back (I fear Greene might retain that role in TEN) and likely eat up most of the early down work, despite the love fest for Bernard and his 4.1 ypc. I came away impressed with Bernard last year, but I just don't see the incentive to use him over Hill if Hill is getting it done. Second round rookies aren't foolproof, so I'd say Gio could be a steal if Hill busts, but strangely, he hasn't lost any steam at all. He still carries a pretty hefty price tag. So right now he seems priced near his ceiling while Hill is extremely undervalued.

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Bernard did well in short yardage situations last year. The Bengals historically have tended to not rely on just one guy at the goal line. I expect Gio still gets at least 1/3rd of the goal line carries.

I have a hard time seeing an increase in Sanu's real numbers unless

1) they get a lot more plays

or

2) they have an injury

It's one thing to talk about it, but I'm not sure where that increase comes from. From a fantasy perspective he's a guy to take only in big-roster or large fantasy leagues in terms of redraft. Dynasty-wise I just don't see the big upside.

-QG

I was really hoping some other people would post projections in here before me because this Bengals present one of the most volatile scenarios of any team this year. Over the past 3 years under Gruden Cinci has averaged a run to pass ratio of 55/45 with Dalton's rookie season in 2011 being the lowest of the bunch as far as passing is concerned. Now Gruden is off to Wash and Hue is in to call the shots. Hue is on record as saying he wants to have a more ball controlled, run focused and high paced offense. Similarities to Sea have been mentioned. That would be a far cry from the pass centric team we've seen the past 3 years. How much of this are we to really believe? Well, I think we may actually be in lone for a paradigm shift in Cinci this year mainly because they have the personal to pull it off. I think Hue is sincere in his desire to run more and will look to move to a more balanced attack of 52/48 pass/run ratio. Let's take a look.

Dalton

Despite a line of critics long enough to make a night club jealous, Dalton has just gone out and lead his teams to wins and the playoffs every year of his career. Better yet, he's improved his teams wins from 9 to 10 to 11 in each season. On top of that Dalton has quietly managed to improve statistically in just about every category while also inheriting a greater burden of the offense. His passing attempts have increased each season in the NFL. With that his yardage, TDs and YPA have also increased. So much that Dalton was actually one of the best values in fantasy last season for QBs.

Ahh, but he can't throw the deep ball and his supporting cast carries him. There may be some truth to those arguments but dos it matter? His supporting cast isn't going anywhere and Dalton has proven he's good enough to not only catapult his team to several wins, but also produce at a high level. His job is not in question, not should it be.

I see Cinci's shift to a more run focused offense as a good thing for Dalton. Not in fantasy, but in his real NFL play. Dalton will benefit from more PA pass and efficient throws. He's got one of the better group of players in the league to catch passes as well as a solid offensive line.

Gio

Last years 2nd round pick burst on the scene in Cinci and had an immediate impact for the Bengal offense. Gio posted 1211 total yds and 8 TDs as a rookie and clearly outplayed incumbent starter BJGE. Still, Cinci never felt comfortable enough to fully turn the reigns over to the diminutive RB and allowed BJGE to hang around. With a full season under his belt the rational thing to expect this offseason was for Gio to take over as the RB1 in Cinci and with that evolve to a more featured role. Unfortunately the fantasy gods would not allow that as the Bengals drafted what appears to be the replacement and upgrade for BJGE in J. Hill.

Regardless of Hill and BJGE, Gio is now the starter in Cinci and will likely see his touches increased. How much of an increase is the real question? Also, there is the worry of how much GL work Gio will see this year.

Hill

Like Gio last year, Hill was taken by the Bengals in the 2nd round of the draft and seems in line for a great deal of playing time early. Cinci has already moved him above BJGE on the depth chart and appears ready to transition him into that role. It's a role I believe he can thrive in, too. Hill is a tough inside runner with enough burst to break off a few big plays here and there. He will hit seems BJGE never could and provide an instant upgrade to the Cinci backfield. I see Hill as becoming the best GL/short RB on the team from day 1 and seeing the majority of those TD opportunities.

BJGE

Not much to say here. I think BJGE has a real chance to get cut in the wake of his poor performance last year, being out played by Gio and the drafting of Hill. Even if he doesn't I see little impact unless Hill gets injured.

Green

In 3 years all Green has done is reach 3 Pro Bowl, 2 All Pro teams and amassed 3833 receiving yds and 29 TDs. He's quickly become one of the best WRs in the NFL and will easily be the focal point of whatever passing attack Cinci puts together. In the wake of potentially fewer passing attempts Green is the 1 guy I'd feel will be safe more than any other. Where Green particularly excels is making plays down field. His deceptive speed and quickness pared with great length and superb ball tracking skills make him a mismatch for any DB. With more PA passing I see Green getting a lot of opportunities to do what he does best. Make big plays.

Jones

There once was a heated debate as to who would emerge as the WR2 in Cinci, Jones or Sanu. That debate has been ended and Jones can claim victor. Jones exploded for over 700 yds and 10 TDs last year to solidify his position as the WR2 and doesn't appear to be looking back. He may struggle to find adequate opportunity in Cinci this year but the opportunity he gets he is good enough to exploit. With a strong running game, All Pro WR across from him and 2 great TEs he will consistently be able to punish softer coverage.

Gresham/Eifert

The TE battle in Cinci is one to watch IMO. Gresham and Eifert basically split the targets last year nullifying either of them as all that beneficial as fantasy contributors. Will this year be any different? I'm not sure. Conventional wisdom would suggest that Eifert pushes Gresham out of the way. I mean he was just drafted last year in the 1st round and seemingly has the tools to do so. The problem is Gresham, also a 1st round selection, is a pretty darn good player. He's especially good in run blocking but can also make some plays down the field. I think it's inevitable that Eifert passes Gresham in targets this year but worry that the distribution is still such that his value in fantasy suffers.

Projections

Dalton

321 completions, 517 attempts, 3826 yds, 27 TDs, 15 Ints

55 carries, 180 yds, 1 TD

Gio

191 carries, 821 yds, 6 TDs

80 targets, 60 receptions, 540 yds, 2 TDs

Hill

215 carries, 967 TDs, 9 TDs

20 targets, 14 receptions, 112 yds

Green

160 targets, 93 receptions, 1494 yds, 12 TDs

Jones

85 targets, 53 receptions, 742 yds, 7 TDs

Eifert

85 targets, 55 receptions, 632 yds, 4 TDs

Gresham

55 targets, 38 receptions, 388 TDs, 1 TD

Thanks QUizGuy66. That was pretty much the last part I was wondering about.

CIN

Marvin Lewis/Hue Jackson The Bengals lost Kyle Gruden and Mike Zimmer as their defensive coordinator

Bengals trying to go up-tempo when they have the ball


BY JOE KAY
AP Sports Writer
JUne 11 2014
http://www.timesbulletin.com/Content/State-World-Sports/State-World-Sports/Article/Bengals-trying-to-go-up-tempo-when-they-have-the-ball/164/363/188215
CINCINNATI (AP) — Andy Dalton kept the offense in the huddle for more than a few seconds.
Coordinator Hue Jackson wasn’t happy.

“C’mon guys, get ‘em in and out!” Jackson yelled from the sideline, his arms crossed in a show of disapproval. “Let’s go!”

The Bengals’ offense has a few new features this season under Jackson, and the most noticeable involves speed. Cincinnati no longer has a low gear when it comes to getting lined up and snapping the ball.


There’s only fast and faster.

The up-tempo approach was on display Tuesday during the first workout of minicamp. Jackson, who took over as offensive coordinator when Jay Gruden was hired as Washington’s head coach, wants to see the Bengals develop a more consistent running game. He’s added a few new touches, such as more shifting before plays.
And there’s that constant attention to the play clock.

It’s essentially the same offense run at a different speed.

“It’s an adjustment,” offensive lineman Andrew Whitworth said. “You start getting it where guys are playing harder and faster, and then you have to be able to do it over a long period of time, all of the time. All those things tie in.

“As this game gets faster and sped up, guys are going to have to prepare the right way. To play that style, you have to prepare yourself.”

They started getting accustomed to it during voluntary offseason workouts. The entire offense was together on Tuesday for the first day of the mandatory minicamp, getting a better feel for how the new approach translates into running plays.

The huddles go quicker. The receivers run to their spots before the ball is snapped. The quarterbacks get rid of the ball quickly.
It takes more energy and concentration to go at that pace.

“You definitely feel it,” receiver Marvin Jones said. “When you keep pushing it and make that second-nature, it gets easy. We’re at the point now where we just have to keep pushing.”

The Bengals lost both coordinators from a team that made the playoffs for the third season in a row, only to lose the opening game for the third straight time. Cincinnati hasn’t won a playoff game since the 1990 season, tied for the sixth-longest streak of futility in NFL history.

The offense ranked 10th in the league last season — 18th in running, eighth in passing. Dalton had one of the best seasons by a Bengals quarterback, throwing for a club-record 4,293 yards and 33 touchdowns. He had another bad game in the playoffs, a theme to his first three seasons.

The offense returns virtually intact, with Dalton negotiating a long-term extension heading into the final season of his contract. Dalton doesn’t have to learn a new offense under Jackson, who was an assistant in Cincinnati each of the past two seasons.

“It is the same offense that we were running, but there’s a lot of tweaks in there, a lot of tweaks with how Hue likes to do things,” Dalton said.

Mainly, he wants to see things done faster. Jackson has given Dalton a lot of responsibility for making sure the offense is lined up correctly and gets the plays off smoothly.

“So it’s making sure guys are lined up how you want them to be, how we’re doing our motions, guys are going full-speed,” Dalton said. “They want to do everything quick. We want to do everything quick, too. We want to get back and be ready to go.”

Notes: The Bengals re-signed TE Alex Smith, who was a free agent. Smith joined the Bengals as a free agent from Cleveland last season and caught 13 passes for 47 yards. A wrist injury forced him to miss the playoff loss to San Diego. … Coach Marvin Lewis said that if training camp opened this week, CB Leon Hall would be lined up as a starter. Hall is ahead of schedule in recovering from his second torn Achilles’ tendon in the past three years. He didn’t participate in full-team drills on Tuesday. … Lewis was much more guarded about DT Geno Atkins, who is coming back from a torn ACL suffered on Oct. 31. It’s unclear whether he’ll be ready to start the season.

Click to expand...

Free agency/draft

Added QB Jason Campbell re-signed TE Alex Smith, LT Will Svitek from NE and RT Marshall Newhouse from GB
RB Jeremy Hill QB AJ McCarron C Russell Bodine

Lost DE Michael Johnson LT Anthony Collins

Andre Smith sits; Bengals Offensive Line gets Variety of Looks in OTAs


By Jason Marcum ? @JasonB_Marcum on Jun 16 201
http://www.cincyjungle.com/2014/6/16/5812606/bengals-offensive-line-variety-of-looks-in-otas

Because of rest and injuries, the Bengal offensive line is getting a variety of looks in OTAs. Now sitting out is right tackle Andre Smith, who's believed to be getting rest to allow other seldom-used guys to get more reps:


That's been the case through nine OTA workouts. Adding to the confusion has been projected starter Mike Pollak being out after injuring his knee in offseason training and hasn't participated in the offseason program to this point. His goal is to be 100% for the beginning of training camp.

Boling also feels like he’ll be ready to start practicing the first day of camp, less than seven months after his ACL surgery. That's optimistic to say the least, and we shouldn't count on seeing him extensively for the first few weeks of camp.

In the meantime, fourth-round pick Russell Bodine has gotten the majority of the work at center, while a variety of players have rotated through other spots. Andrew Whitworth has played left tackle and left guard with Marshall Newhouse filling in for him at tackle.

Also getting time at LG is Trey Hopkins, who could be an undrafted name to watch this summer:

"He’s a heck of an athlete. Long arms, strong," Paul Alexander said of Hopkins. "He just needs lots of footwork technique, but he’s got a lot of talent."
Still, Pollak is the favorite to start at center or guard when the preseason opener against the Kansas City Chiefs. Boling's rehab could hold him out until the regular season opens.

If that's the case, Bodine at center and Pollak at guard could be the ideal scenario. Either way, Pollak is fine with playing whatever position the Bengals need him too.

"I'm just ready, wherever they need me to go," Pollak said. "They brought in (Russell) Bodine and he's doing a great job and if they want to go with him at center, great, but I'm going to be ready to go at center or guard, wherever they need me."

Second-year lineman Tanner Hawkinson and TJ Johnson are unknown commodities up to this point, but Hawkison has impressed thus far in OTAs while getting some run with the starters at left guard.

"He obviously has tremendous quickness and athleticism," Alexander said. "He can pull and do things in space and he's gotten a little stronger. He's had to grow up in terms of filling out with strength and maturity. He's a little better than he was last year. He just needs reps now."

Here's just a few of the first-team o-line combinations that have been used in OTAs:

LT: Whitworth, LG: Hawkinson, C: Bodine, RG: Zeitler, RT: Smith

LT: Newhouse, LG: Whitworth, C: Bodine, RG: Zeitler, RT: Smith

LT: Whitworth, LG: Hopkins, C: Bodine, RG: Zeitler, RT: Newhouse

LT: Newhouse, LG: Hawkinson, C: Bodine, RG: Zeitler, RT: Smith

Click to expand...

2013 the Bengals offensive line was 11th in adjusted line yards according to FBO. I also thought it was interesting that the Bengals had some of the lowest RB yards out of the top 16. The teams that were worse in RB yards were Cleveland, Pittsburgh, NYG, Jax, and Baltimore. So it makes sense to improve the RB position with the line already doing very well. The Bengals were 3rd overall in pass protection.

398RB carries LE 9% LT 12% M/G 59% RT 13% RE 7%

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol

2. Cincinnati Bengals (8th)

PB: 1st, RB: 5th, PEN: 12th

Stud: It’s hard enough to be good at one line position, but Andrew Whitworth (+36.7) excelled at two. A move to guard seemed to reinvigorate his run blocking while he kept his quarterback clean at the tackle spot.

Dud: He’d be a solid starter on most teams, but Kyle Cook (-4.8) remains the weakest link on a strong unit.

Analysis: Lose your starting guards? No problems. We’ll just ship in our backup left tackle and rotate a guy or two around. It was extremely impressive to see how the Bengals coped with injury, ending the year with six offensive linemen who played at least 350 snaps with a positive grade. With a lot of talent to work with, which five they put out next year will be worth keeping an eye on (and where they line up).

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/01/13/2013-offensive-line-rankings/4/

Click to expand...

Considering how well the offensive line performed last season it makes me wonder how they still only managed 3.6ypc

Andy Dalton 61ra 3ypc 183yds 2TD 420ra 1572 rushing yards w/o Dalton is 3.74

Jones 2013 8ra 65yds 8.1ypc 2012 11gm 3ra (4ra) 15.7ypc 47yds
Sanu 2013 4ra 16yds 4ypc 2012 9gm 5ra (9ra) 3ypc 15yds
Hawkins 2013 8gm 2ra (4ra) 3rds 1.5ypc 2012 6ra 5ypc 30yds 4TD 2011 5ra 5ypc 25yds

406 RB carries 1488yds 3.67ypc 4.1 for Bernard 3.4 for BJGE

This seems like a favorable situation for the Bengals running efficiency to improve due to Hill replacing BJGE who should be able to do better than 3.4ypc in 2014.

Bengals 2013 1097(-29sk) 1068 plays 587pa 6.7ypa 481ra (QB61+14WR) 406 3.6ypc 45% run 38% RB run
Bengals 2012 1016(-46sk) 970 plays 540pa 6.1ypa 430ra (-QB47+19WR) 364RB run 4.1ypc 44% run 37.5% RB run
Bengals 2011 1015(-25sk) 990 plays 535pa 6.0ypa 455ra (-QB37+10WR) 407RB run 3.9ypc 46% run 41% RB run


Raiders 2010 1039(-44sk) plays 491pa 5.9ypa 504ra 4.9ypc
Raiders 2011 1015(-25sk) plays 524pa 7.2ypa 466ra 4.5ypc

1060(-33sk) 1027 plays 529pa 498ra (-48QB+12WR) 438 RB run 47% run

1027 510-550pa 477-517ra (-48QB+12WR) 417-457RB run

I do see the potential for the Bengals to possibly improve upon their offensive performance from last season and maybe total plays go up again. But despite the up tempo offense increasing the pace, the Bengals already ran a lot of plays last season. With more running plays expected, that is the reason I reduced the total plays by 37 compared to last season. I do think it is possible the Bengals end up with over 1100 total plays (they were close to this mark last season).

Hue Jackson averaged 47% rushing attempts in his 2 seasons as OC/HC with the Raiders.

If a run heavy up tempo game is something they commit to all season I can see the offensive plays being around the same but with the higher expected run ratio that would mean 498 total rushing attempts.

Dalton has averaged 48.3 rushing attempts the last 3 seasons. At 3.1ypc 149yds 1-4TD

45-50-55ra 3.1ypc

Jeremy Hill 54% 237ra 4.1ypc 970yds 6-8TD

2014 200-220-240ra 4.1ypc 820-902-984yds 6-8TD

Giovani Bernard 44% 193ra 4.3ypc 829yds 4-8TD

Bernard scored 4 TD from 10 yards or less last season. Week 2 vs the Steelers, Week 3 vs the Packers, Week 9 against Miami and week 14 vs. the Steelers.

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=705057&page=3

180-200-220ra
(Bernard 4-6ra replacing Hawkins)

2014 184-200-226ra 4.3ypc 791-860-972yds 4-8TD

BJGE or other 2% RB 9ra 4ypc 35yds

10-20ra 40-80yds 0-1TD

Jones 4-8ra 10.2ypc 41-82yards 0-1TD
Sanu 2-4ra 3ypc 6-12yds
Bernard 4-6ra (replacing Hawkins)
Green 0-2ra 10.1 0-22.2yds
I considered AJ Green possibly getting a few carries as he did have 5 in 2011 and 4 in 2012. But as they did not use him in this way last season, perhaps in part because of the defensive attention he gets now or just to prevent risk of injury. He was very effective as a runner however so perhaps he gets a couple runs in 2014.




Passing game

Andy Dalton
2013 26 16gm 586pa 363cmp 61.9%cmp 6.9ay/a 11.8 Y/C 4293yds 33TD 5.6% TD 20int 3.4int% 29sk sk% 4.7
2012 25 16gm 528pa 329cmp 62.3%cmp 6.6ay/a 11.2 Y/C 3449yds 27TD 5.1% TD 16int 3.0int% 46sk sk% 8
2011 24 16gm 516pa 300cmp 58.1%cmp 6.2ay/a 11.3 Y/C 3398yds 20YD 3.9% TD 13int 2.5int% 24sk sk% 4.4


529pa

510-550pa 316-341cmp 62%cmp 6.7ay/a 3417-368yds 11.5 Y/C 3634-3921yds 5.35% TD 26-29TD 3.2%int 16-18int



2013 587tg

Green 16gm 1055os 92.8% 180tg 98rec 54% 14.7ypc 1426yds 11TD
Jones 16gm 542os 47.9% 80tg 51rec 14ypc 712yds 10TD
Bernard 16gm 614os 54.3% 71tg 56rec 514
Gresham 14gm 891os (1018os) 78.8% (91%) 66tg (75tg) 46rec (53rec) 10ypc 458yds (530yds)
Sanu 750os 16gm 66.2% 78tg 47rec 9.7ypc 455yds 2TD
Eifert 15gm 673os (769os) 59.5% (69%) 59tg (62tg) 39rec (42rec) 11.4ypc 445yds (474yds)
Hawkins 8gm 118os (236os) 10.4% (20.8%) 18tg (36tg) 12rec (24rec)16.6ypc 199yds (398yds)
Sanzenbacher 79os 7% 8 6 61
BJGE 464os 41% 220ra 3.4ypc 756yds 7TD 8tg 4rec 5.5ypc 22yds

2012 540tg

Green 16gm 958os 90.8% 164tg 97rec 13.9ypc 1350yds 11TD
Gresham 16gm 1002os 95% 94tg 64rec 11.5ypc 737yds 5TD
Hawkins 14gm 518os (592os) 56% 80tg (91tg) 51rec (58rec) 10.5ypc 533yds 4TD
Tate 16gm 271os 25.7% 25tg 13rec 16.2ypc 211yds 1TD
Binns 8gm 300os 28.4% 29tg 18rec 210yds
Jones 11gm 354os (515os) 48.9% 32tg (47tg) 18rec (26rec) 11.2ypc 201yds 1TD
Sanu 9gm 204os (363os) 34.4% 25tg (44tg) 16rec (28rec) 9.6ypc 154 (273yds)
BJGE 15gm 651os (694os) 66% 29tg (31tg) 22rec (23rec) 4.7ypc 104yds
Charles 16gm 10 8 101
Peerman 14gm 9 9 85
Leonard 15gm 15 11 67
Whalen 9gm 12 7 53

47 more targets in 2013 than 2012 or 3 more/game

I am projecting 510-550 passing attempts. I am not using 2011 player stats because Dalton was a rookie that season. I would like to throw out rookie stats on all of these players, but so many of them are too young to do that. Marvin Jones for example is a player who was overlooked going into 2013 as he had not done much as a rookie. So while I do not expect him to repeat 2013 especially in number of TDs, I also do not expect him perform as low as he did as a rookie again. After I finished this process I found my receiving totals are a bit higher than the passing attempts I am projecting here based off of the run ratio. This may mean that the Bengals will run more than 1060 total plays or it means my receiving stats are a bit too high.

AJ Green
2013 16gm 1055os 92.8% 180tg 98rec 54% 14.7ypc 1426yds 11TD
2012 16gm 958os 90.8% 164tg 97rec 13.9ypc 1350yds 11TD

2yr avg 91% 172tg (56.5% catch rate) 97.5rec 14.7ypc 1388yds 11TD

2014 160-170-180tg (56.5%) 90-96-102rec 14.7ypc 1329-1411-1499yds 10-12TD


Marvin Jones
2013 16gm 542os 47.9% 80tg 51rec 14ypc 712yds 10TD
2012 11gm 354os (515os) 48.9% 32tg (47tg) 18rec (26rec) 11.2ypc 201yds (291yds) 1TD

2yr avg 48%os 63.5tg (61%) 34.5rec 13.2ypc 5.5TD 502yds

2014 60-70-80tg 37-43-49rec 13.2ypc 488-568-644yds 5-8TD

Mohamed Sanu
2013 750os 16gm 66.2% 78tg 47rec 9.7ypc 455yds 2TD
2012 9gm 204os (363os) 34.4% 25tg (44tg) 16rec (28rec) 9.6ypc 154 (273yds)

2yr avg 61tg (61%) 38rec 9.7ypc 364yds

2014 50-60-70tg (61%) 31-37-43rec 9.7ypc 301-359-414yds 2-4TD

Tyler Eifert
2013 15gm 673os (769os) 59.5% (69%) 59tg (62tg) 66.1% catch rate 39rec (42rec) 11.4ypc 445yds (474yds)

2014 80-90-100tg 53-60-67rec 11.4ypc 603-684-764yds 2-6TD


Jermaine Gresham
2013 14gm 891os (1018os) 78.8% (91%) 66tg (75tg) 46rec (53rec) 10ypc 458yds (530yds)
2012 16gm 1002os 95% 94tg 64rec 11.5ypc 737yds 5TD
2011 14gm 92tg 6.57tg/gm (105tg) 56rec (64) 10.6ypc 596yds 6TD
2010 15gm 83tg 5.53tg/gm (89tg) 52rec (55) 9.1ypc 471yds 4TD

I am still going to base this projection off of 2012-2013 stats due to 2011 being Daltons rookie season. But I wanted to look at TE targets from further back as a basis for what to expect from Eifert in 2014.

For Gresham's first 3 seasons he averaged 96 targets/season as the primary TE. Pro rated targets from 2013 saw these targets drop to 75. 21 less/season that what he previously had.

Both TE were on the field extensively last season, if they both are healthy I expect that will continue. I think Eifert becomes the primary target of the 2.

I agree with bengalbuck about there being some risk of either or both TE missing some playing time.

2014 60-70-80tg (65%) 39-46-53rec 10.4ypc 406-478-551yds 4-6TD

Giovani Bernard
2013 15gm 614os 54.3% 71tg 56rec 9.2ypc 514

I agree with what QG said about Bernard taking over Andrew Hawkins former role in the offense. That is what essentially already happened last season. I want to give Gruden some credit for being creative with Hawkins and using him as a reciever to suppliment their passing game. BJGE yards/reception have been more than 2 yards/reception below the league average for RB of 7.7 As I recall us discussing last season, Daltons passing yardage got a significant boost due to the addition of Bernard and reducing BJGE targets from 29 in 2012 to 8 in 2013. 18 receptions from BJGE in 2012 was worth 85yds those 18 receptions to Bernard were worth 166yds so an 81 yard difference. I think there may be another modest boost for Dalton like this from Hills receptions if he is average it would still be a 2.2ypc upgrade from BJGE 2013. There is some upside for more targets for Bernard here and also considering he is no longer a rookie.

Hawkins
2013 8gm 118os (236os) 10.4% (20.8%) 18tg (36tg) 12rec (24rec)16.6ypc 199yds (398yds)
2012 14gm 518os (592os) 56% 80tg (91tg) 51rec (58rec) 10.5ypc 533yds 4TD

If I added all of Hawkins pro rated targets (36) from 2013 to Bernards targets that would 107tg. Hawkins had 91 in 2012.

2014 80-90-100tg (74%) 59-67-74rec 9.2ypc 543-613-681yds 3-4TD

I dinged Bernard's catch rate of 79% last season by 5 to 74% just because 79% seems pretty high.

Jeremy Hill 579os (54%) 23tg (60%catch) 14rec 7.7ypc 106yds

2014 15-20-25tg 9-12-15rec 7.7ypc 69-92-116yds 0-1TD

I based Hills targets on BJGE use the last 2 seasons.

BJGE
2013 16gm 464os 41% 8tg 4rec 5.5ypc 22yds
2012 15gm 651os (694os) 66% 29tg (31tg) 22rec (23rec) 4.7ypc 104yds

Recieving stat totals

WR Green 160-170-180tg (56.5%) 90-96-102rec 14.7ypc 1329-1411-1499yds 10-12TD
WR Jones 60-70-80tg 37-43-49rec 13.2ypc 488-568-644yds 5-8TD
WR Sanu 50-60-70tg (61%) 31-37-43rec 9.7ypc 301-359-414yds 2-4TD

TE Eifert 80-90-100tg (66%) 53-60-67rec 11.4ypc 603-684-764yds 2-6TD
TE Gresham 60-70-80tg (65%) 39-46-53rec 10.4ypc 406-478-551yds 4-6TD

RB Hill 15-20-25tg 9-12-15rec 7.7ypc 69-92-116yds 0-1TD
RB Bernard 80-90-100tg (74%) 59-67-74rec 9.2ypc 543-613-681yds 3-4TD


Passing game

Andy Dalton
2013 26 16gm 586pa 363cmp 61.9%cmp 6.9ay/a 11.8 Y/C 4293yds 33TD 5.6% TD 20int 3.4int% 29sk sk% 4.7
2012 25 16gm 528pa 329cmp 62.3%cmp 6.6ay/a 11.2 Y/C 3449yds 27TD 5.1% TD 16int 3.0int% 46sk sk% 8
2011 24 16gm 516pa 300cmp 58.1%cmp 6.2ay/a 11.3 Y/C 3398yds 20YD 3.9% TD 13int 2.5int% 24sk sk% 4.4


529pa

510-550pa 316-341cmp 62%cmp 6.7ay/a 3417-3685yds 11.5 Y/C 3634-3921yds 5.35% TD 26-29TD 3.2%int 16-18int

Low 505tg 318cmp 3739payds(-190) 3549payds 26TD

Median 570tg 361cmp 4205payds(-190) 4015payds 33TD

High 635tg 394cmp 4669payds(-190) 4479payds 40TD

33 sacks at 5.77yds/sk = 190yds

I do think this may be too high because the receiving stats are pro rated for some players and covers 2012-2013 an average 557 passing attempts, which is slightly higher than my top projected passing attempts of 550. There is the possibility that the Bengals do run more than 1060 plays in 2014. After accounting for the sack yardage, a slight boost from Hill (hopefully) compared to BJGE as a receiver and Dalton perhaps improving his completion percentage a bit to compensate for the lower passing attempts compared to last season. I am open to perhaps recuding the receiving stats a bit on the top end. Open to suggestions.

3417-3634-3685-3739-3921-4205-4669 averaging these 7 passing totals is 3895

2014


Andry Dalton 3549-3895-4479 passing yards 26-33-40TD 45-50-55ra 3.1ypc 1-4TD

Jeremy Hill 200-220-240ra 4.1ypc 820-902-984yds 6-8TD 15-20-25tg 9-12-15rec 7.7ypc 69-92-116yds 0-1TD

Giovani Bernard 184-200-226ra 4.3ypc 791-860-972yds 4-8TD 80-90-100tg (74%) 59-67-74rec 9.2ypc 543-613-681yds 3-4TD

BJGE or other RB 10-20ra 40-80yds 0-1TD 0-10tg

AJ Green 0-2ra 10.1 0-22.2yds 160-170-180tg (56.5%) 90-96-102rec 14.7ypc 1329-1411-1499yds 10-12TD

Marvin Jones 4-8ra 10.2ypc 41-82yards 0-1TD 60-70-80tg 37-43-49rec 13.2ypc 488-568-644yds 5-8TD

Tyler Eifert 80-90-100tg (66%) 53-60-67rec 11.4ypc 603-684-764yds 2-6TD

Jermaine Gresham 60-70-80tg (65%) 39-46-53rec 10.4ypc 406-478-551yds 4-6TD

Sanu 2-4ra 3ypc 6-12yds 50-60-70tg (61%) 31-37-43rec 9.7ypc 301-359-414yds 2-4TD

QuizGuy66 said:

I have a hard time seeing an increase in Sanu's real numbers unless

1) they get a lot more plays

or

2) they have an injury

It's one thing to talk about it, but I'm not sure where that increase comes from. From a fantasy perspective he's a guy to take only in big-roster or large fantasy leagues in terms of redraft. Dynasty-wise I just don't see the big upside.

-QG

Click to expand...

I don't buy it either, but the other way it happens would be if Hue doesn't want to go 2TE. I can't see them increasing rushing attempts without Gresham playing most every down, but they played 2 TE a lot last year under Gruden. If he wants Sanu to take a lot of snaps in the slot, that will mean we're way too optimistic on Eifert.

Jeremy Hill - RB - Bengals
The Cincinnati Enquirer says the Bengals are now looking to emulate the Seahawks and 49ers on offense.
Last year, Bengals running backs got the call on just 37.2 percent of their offensive snaps. The Seahawks were at 42.7 percent and the 49ers 43.4 percent. With pass-centric Jay Gruden gone and run-minded Hue Jackson in, Andy Dalton is expected to be more of a game manager while Gio Bernard and Jeremy Hill raise that percentage. Hill, the clear-cut big back complement, is currently undervalued at his ninth-round ADP. He's a legit candidate for 180 carries as well as the goal-line work.
Related: A.J. Green, Andy Dalton

Source: Cincinnati Enquirer
Jul 16 - 8:41 AM

jurb26 said:

I was really hoping some other people would post projections in here before me because this Bengals present one of the most volatile scenarios of any team this year. Over the past 3 years under Gruden Cinci has averaged a run to pass ratio of 55/45 with Dalton's rookie season in 2011 being the lowest of the bunch as far as passing is concerned. Now Gruden is off to Wash and Hue is in to call the shots. Hue is on record as saying he wants to have a more ball controlled, run focused and high paced offense. Similarities to Sea have been mentioned. That would be a far cry from the pass centric team we've seen the past 3 years. How much of this are we to really believe? Well, I think we may actually be in lone for a paradigm shift in Cinci this year mainly because they have the personal to pull it off. I think Hue is sincere in his desire to run more and will look to move to a more balanced attack of 52/48 pass/run ratio. Let's take a look.

Dalton

Despite a line of critics long enough to make a night club jealous, Dalton has just gone out and lead his teams to wins and the playoffs every year of his career. Better yet, he's improved his teams wins from 9 to 10 to 11 in each season. On top of that Dalton has quietly managed to improve statistically in just about every category while also inheriting a greater burden of the offense. His passing attempts have increased each season in the NFL. With that his yardage, TDs and YPA have also increased. So much that Dalton was actually one of the best values in fantasy last season for QBs.

Ahh, but he can't throw the deep ball and his supporting cast carries him. There may be some truth to those arguments but dos it matter? His supporting cast isn't going anywhere and Dalton has proven he's good enough to not only catapult his team to several wins, but also produce at a high level. His job is not in question, not should it be.

I see Cinci's shift to a more run focused offense as a good thing for Dalton. Not in fantasy, but in his real NFL play. Dalton will benefit from more PA pass and efficient throws. He's got one of the better group of players in the league to catch passes as well as a solid offensive line.

Gio

Last years 2nd round pick burst on the scene in Cinci and had an immediate impact for the Bengal offense. Gio posted 1211 total yds and 8 TDs as a rookie and clearly outplayed incumbent starter BJGE. Still, Cinci never felt comfortable enough to fully turn the reigns over to the diminutive RB and allowed BJGE to hang around. With a full season under his belt the rational thing to expect this offseason was for Gio to take over as the RB1 in Cinci and with that evolve to a more featured role. Unfortunately the fantasy gods would not allow that as the Bengals drafted what appears to be the replacement and upgrade for BJGE in J. Hill.

Regardless of Hill and BJGE, Gio is now the starter in Cinci and will likely see his touches increased. How much of an increase is the real question? Also, there is the worry of how much GL work Gio will see this year.

Hill

Like Gio last year, Hill was taken by the Bengals in the 2nd round of the draft and seems in line for a great deal of playing time early. Cinci has already moved him above BJGE on the depth chart and appears ready to transition him into that role. It's a role I believe he can thrive in, too. Hill is a tough inside runner with enough burst to break off a few big plays here and there. He will hit seems BJGE never could and provide an instant upgrade to the Cinci backfield. I see Hill as becoming the best GL/short RB on the team from day 1 and seeing the majority of those TD opportunities.

BJGE

Not much to say here. I think BJGE has a real chance to get cut in the wake of his poor performance last year, being out played by Gio and the drafting of Hill. Even if he doesn't I see little impact unless Hill gets injured.

Green

In 3 years all Green has done is reach 3 Pro Bowl, 2 All Pro teams and amassed 3833 receiving yds and 29 TDs. He's quickly become one of the best WRs in the NFL and will easily be the focal point of whatever passing attack Cinci puts together. In the wake of potentially fewer passing attempts Green is the 1 guy I'd feel will be safe more than any other. Where Green particularly excels is making plays down field. His deceptive speed and quickness pared with great length and superb ball tracking skills make him a mismatch for any DB. With more PA passing I see Green getting a lot of opportunities to do what he does best. Make big plays.

Jones

There once was a heated debate as to who would emerge as the WR2 in Cinci, Jones or Sanu. That debate has been ended and Jones can claim victor. Jones exploded for over 700 yds and 10 TDs last year to solidify his position as the WR2 and doesn't appear to be looking back. He may struggle to find adequate opportunity in Cinci this year but the opportunity he gets he is good enough to exploit. With a strong running game, All Pro WR across from him and 2 great TEs he will consistently be able to punish softer coverage.

Gresham/Eifert

The TE battle in Cinci is one to watch IMO. Gresham and Eifert basically split the targets last year nullifying either of them as all that beneficial as fantasy contributors. Will this year be any different? I'm not sure. Conventional wisdom would suggest that Eifert pushes Gresham out of the way. I mean he was just drafted last year in the 1st round and seemingly has the tools to do so. The problem is Gresham, also a 1st round selection, is a pretty darn good player. He's especially good in run blocking but can also make some plays down the field. I think it's inevitable that Eifert passes Gresham in targets this year but worry that the distribution is still such that his value in fantasy suffers.

Projections

Dalton

321 completions, 517 attempts, 3826 yds, 27 TDs, 15 Ints

55 carries, 180 yds, 1 TD

Gio

191 carries, 821 yds, 6 TDs

80 targets, 60 receptions, 540 yds, 2 TDs

Hill

215 carries, 967 TDs, 9 TDs

20 targets, 14 receptions, 112 yds

Green

160 targets, 93 receptions, 1494 yds, 12 TDs

Jones

85 targets, 53 receptions, 742 yds, 7 TDs

Eifert

85 targets, 55 receptions, 632 yds, 4 TDs

Gresham

55 targets, 38 receptions, 388 TDs, 1 TD

Click to expand...

This only leaves 8 receptions for all other players, unless you have Dalton missing some games?