gonzobill5
Footballguy
I'm curious as to what others think on this one. I'll post my answer as well as what the pick value calculator says after a few responses.
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Would you trade your first 12 picks for every pick in round X? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter gonzobill5
- Start date
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
4th round is the lowest I would go with this but your still going to miss out on the 1st 36 or so players which doesn't settle well with me
bostonfred
Footballguy
I would go fourth round in a heartbeat. Twelve straight picks in the fourth could net you an elite qb, or at least a very good one, plus one of the top tes, and while you wouldn't get one of the very best running backs or receivers, you could take your four to six best sleepers.
Fifth would be tougher. In the fifth, there's no more elite talent available, and a run on any position in the first four rounds could leave your team pretty weak at one or more positions. You should still be able to get a good qb and good te, but you've probably missed out on the better guys at each position and you're stuck reaching on one. There are still some good receivers left, but you're at the mercy of your leaguemates' picks as you get whatevers left from the top tier. And the running backs all have significant blemishes, so youll probably take six backs, four receivers, a qb and a te to piece together a quality lineup. That lineup could pan out in a big way if a couple of those backs exceed expectations, but you're just tossing a handful of dice and hoping to roll a couple sixes.
Sixth or later, no way.
Fifth would be tougher. In the fifth, there's no more elite talent available, and a run on any position in the first four rounds could leave your team pretty weak at one or more positions. You should still be able to get a good qb and good te, but you've probably missed out on the better guys at each position and you're stuck reaching on one. There are still some good receivers left, but you're at the mercy of your leaguemates' picks as you get whatevers left from the top tier. And the running backs all have significant blemishes, so youll probably take six backs, four receivers, a qb and a te to piece together a quality lineup. That lineup could pan out in a big way if a couple of those backs exceed expectations, but you're just tossing a handful of dice and hoping to roll a couple sixes.
Sixth or later, no way.
steveski
Footballguy
I'd take a 4th. You could end up with this team, which I think would be the favorite to win the league:
QB: Stafford/Luck
RB: Gerhart, Mathews, Sankey, Jennings
WR: Garcon, Cruz, Harvin, Fitz, Patterson, (Welker/Crabtree/Andre)
TE: Davis/Cameron
I don't think I'd take a 5th. You'd end up with a very questionable team and would need a lot of cards to fall in the right places to be a contender. Most likely half the RB's and WR's fail to live up to expectations and this team ends up middle of the pack or lower:
QB: Stafford/Luck
RB: Vereen, Chris Johnson, TRich, Tate
WR: Patterson, Roddy, DeSean, Floyd, Maclin, Hilton
TE: Davis/Cameron
Just for fun, this is what I'd do if I could do the first few rounds...
1st:
QB: Peyton
RB: McCoy, Charles, Peterson, Forte
WR: Calvin, Demaryius, Dez, Green, Julio
TE: Graham, Gronk
2nd:
QB: Rodgers
RB: Ball, Murray, Bell, Gio, Morris
WR: Green, Marshall, Julio, Jordy, Brown
TE: Julius
3rd:
QB: Stafford/Luck (Possibly Brees if you get lucky)
RB: Stacy, Spiller, Ellington, Bush, Gerhart
WR: Brown, Jeffery, Cobb, VJax, Garcon
TE: Julius
The 1st and 2nd round teams are definitely going to win the league. I don't see much difference between the 3rd and 4th round teams though. I think I actually prefer the 4th round team.
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cstu
Footballguy
Looking at 5th round ADP:
Luck
Sankey/CJ/J.Bell/TRich/Rice
Floyd/DJax/Wright/Hilton/Watkins(need to gamble a little)
Cameron
bostonfred
Footballguy
How many starting positions are we talking about? Because the guy with 1.1 might have mccoy, who is way better than any of your backs, plus brees or rodgers, plus a stud receiver who is better than any of yours, and they still have a fourth fifth and sixth pick which are comparable to your three fifths. So if you start qb, 2rb, 3wr, 1te then you're hoping your depth makes up for serious deficiencies at three starting spots, you're roughly even at three more, and you've got a fifth rounder in your seventh starting spot, while he's got a seventh rounder. So your five bench spots need to overcome a massive deficiency right out of the gate. Its possible, but its tough sledding. If cj2k performs like a top ten back again, well, you're still giving up points to the mccoy or charles owner every week. If luck outperforms his adp, he still might not be in manning/rodgers/brees territory. So its not just that you need to hit one a couple fifth rounders, its that you need to absolutely crush it. Itd be fun gambling, but gambling nonetheless.
buck naked
Footballguy
Part of the answer depends on the number of teams in the league. I've seen auction teams with this strategy in 14 teams league do well consistently.
gonzobill5
Footballguy
Let's assume 12 teams, start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 Flex, 1 TE.
cstu
Footballguy
All you're hoping for with that team I posted is to slip into the playoffs and have your guys go off. A 5th round team won't be 12-0 but I'd take my chances with that team in the playoffs.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
"Mike Ditka Likes This".
CalBear
Footballguy
I went with third round. Otherwise you're just too far behind. The differential between 1.1 and 2.1 is huge, between 2.1 and 3.1 less so, and 3.1 and 4.1 less than that, and so on. It does make some difference which pick you have; it costs more to give up 1.01+2.12+3.01 than it does to give up 1.12+2.01+3.12
If you think about 1.06 as a middling case, here's an example of the team differential from last year, based on ADP (correcting for IR players in both cases, to give a sense of the quality available rather than the specific outcomes, and choosing the same number at each position):
Normal draft:
QB: Tom Brady
RB: Ray Rice, Giovanni Bernard, Le'Veon Bell, Bryce Brown, Fred Jackson
WR: Dwayne Bowe, Torrey Smith, Lance Moore, Golden Tate, Vincent Brown
TE: Jimmy Graham, Greg Olsen
Third round:
QB: Tom Brady
RB: MJD, Ridley, Gore, DeMarco Murray, Sproles
WR: Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, Roddy White, Victor Cruz, Vincent Jackson
TE: Witten
Fourth round:
QB: Kaepernick
RB: Sproles, Eddy Lacy, Lamar Miller, Ryan Matthews, Giovanni Bernard
WR: Vincent Jackson, Wes Welker, Colston, Bowe, Jordy Nelson
TE: Witten
None of these are terrible teams, but I think the fourth-round team is a noticeable notch weaker than the other two.
If you think about 1.06 as a middling case, here's an example of the team differential from last year, based on ADP (correcting for IR players in both cases, to give a sense of the quality available rather than the specific outcomes, and choosing the same number at each position):
Normal draft:
QB: Tom Brady
RB: Ray Rice, Giovanni Bernard, Le'Veon Bell, Bryce Brown, Fred Jackson
WR: Dwayne Bowe, Torrey Smith, Lance Moore, Golden Tate, Vincent Brown
TE: Jimmy Graham, Greg Olsen
Third round:
QB: Tom Brady
RB: MJD, Ridley, Gore, DeMarco Murray, Sproles
WR: Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, Roddy White, Victor Cruz, Vincent Jackson
TE: Witten
Fourth round:
QB: Kaepernick
RB: Sproles, Eddy Lacy, Lamar Miller, Ryan Matthews, Giovanni Bernard
WR: Vincent Jackson, Wes Welker, Colston, Bowe, Jordy Nelson
TE: Witten
None of these are terrible teams, but I think the fourth-round team is a noticeable notch weaker than the other two.
gonzobill5
Footballguy
I planned to do another poll asking how many consecutive picks (starting with your 1st) you would trade for the first 3 picks in the draft.
gonzobill5
Footballguy
For the record, the pick value calculator says you should do it for the 5th round, no matter what slot you were originally drafting from. I agree that it would be dicey but I think it would be a gamble that could pay off big time if you hit on a few.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
id do it for the 5th round. From there id move up a few times into the 4th.
CalBear
Footballguy
You can hit on a few without passing up your first four picks.
Here's the fifth-round team from 2013:
QB: Stafford
RB: Lamar Miller, Ryan Matthews, Montee Ball, Giovani Bernard, Daryl Richardson
WR: Jordy Nelson, Hakeem Nicks, Torrey Smith, Pierre Garcon, Eric Decker
TE: Witten
Yeah, no thanks.
ZWK
Footballguy
For the upcoming season, it looks like getting all of rd 4 would probably leave me with an average QB1 & TE1, weak RB1, strong RB2, below average WR1, strong WR2, very strong WR3, and very strong RB & WR depth on the bench.
It's a close call whether I'd do it. If I can make trades after the draft (and turn some of those strong WRs on my bench into upgrades elsewhere) then I think it's worth it. If not, then probably not. The draft value chart probably favors rd 4, but some of that value would be stuck on my bench and another large chunk of the value would be wasted in having to reach for a bunch of players (especially my QB & TE).
In rd 3 it is clearly worth it - I'd get Gronk and/or Julius at TE, higher upside RBs, even better WRs, and possibly even Brees at QB.
It's a close call whether I'd do it. If I can make trades after the draft (and turn some of those strong WRs on my bench into upgrades elsewhere) then I think it's worth it. If not, then probably not. The draft value chart probably favors rd 4, but some of that value would be stuck on my bench and another large chunk of the value would be wasted in having to reach for a bunch of players (especially my QB & TE).
In rd 3 it is clearly worth it - I'd get Gronk and/or Julius at TE, higher upside RBs, even better WRs, and possibly even Brees at QB.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
johnadams
Footballguy
As an experiment, I'd do it for the fourth round and take nothing but RBs, creating such an overall shortage that I could trade for 2nd round equivalent picks to guys who didn't know it was coming and suddenly need RBs in a very bad way. Probably would fail, but it would be interesting to see how a meta RB shortage would impact trading given that I think RBs tend to be overvalued based on scarcity (so not really overvalued, just inflated).
CalBear
Footballguy
By current ADP, something like 15 RBs will be off the board already. You're not going to get people to panic about their second or third RB when you're trying to offer them marginal players like Joquie Bell. Your biggest guns are mediocre guys like Andre Ellington.
I don't think the strategy is viable for any position, but it would work better for WR than RB; you could get Victor Cruz, Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, Percy Harvin, and other guys who might draw some interest.
FUBAR
Footballguy
Agree with what most of you're saying in normal leagues.
In best ball, probably the 4th. Maybe even 5th, but I like what the 4th would give you.
Presume a 16 team best ball leagues where you start QRRWWWTFKD
Go without a backup D and K, take 2 QBs, 4 RBs, 6 WRs, 2 TEs, and you could get something like:
Looking at SSL ADPs...
6 Matt Ryan ATL 9 6 10 58.3 52 67
7 Nick Foles PHI 7 6 10 59.0 50 74
8 Cam Newton CAR 12 7 9 59.0 53 71
9 Tom Brady NE 10 6 10 59.3 47 72
10 Robert Griffin III WAS 10 7 11 64.8 58 69
19 Shane Vereen NE 10 17 20 48.3 40 53
20 Trent Richardson IND 10 16 22 52.3 39 57
21 Ben Tate CLE 4 19 24 56.5 45 68
22 Ray Rice BAL 11 21 22 58.5 56 62
23 Knowshon Moreno MIA 5 19 29 65.0 49 80
24 Bishop Sankey TEN 9 23 27 66.0 60 73
25 Chris D. Johnson NYJ 11 23 26 68.5 64 73
20 Michael Crabtree SF 8 18 23 51.5 46 60
21 DeSean Jackson WAS 10 20 22 53.0 51 55
22 Roddy White ATL 9 21 23 53.8 53 55
23 T.Y. Hilton IND 10 20 25 61.3 49 69
24 Torrey Smith BAL 11 23 25 62.8 58 72
25 Michael Floyd ARZ 4 25 31 72.0 59 86
26 Eric Decker NYJ 11 26 29 75.5 72 81
27 Mike Wallace MIA 5 24 29 77.0 70 85
7 Greg Olsen CAR 12 7 8 58.0 51 63
8 Jordan Reed WAS 10 8 11 65.3 61 70
9 Dennis Pitta BAL 11 7 10 66.0 61 76
10 Zach Ertz PHI 7 9 12 70.8 62 87
Your pick of K and D.
I think you'd contend in best ball.
In best ball, probably the 4th. Maybe even 5th, but I like what the 4th would give you.
Presume a 16 team best ball leagues where you start QRRWWWTFKD
Go without a backup D and K, take 2 QBs, 4 RBs, 6 WRs, 2 TEs, and you could get something like:
Looking at SSL ADPs...
6 Matt Ryan ATL 9 6 10 58.3 52 67
7 Nick Foles PHI 7 6 10 59.0 50 74
19 Shane Vereen NE 10 17 20 48.3 40 53
21 Ben Tate CLE 4 19 24 56.5 45 68
22 Ray Rice BAL 11 21 22 58.5 56 62
24 Bishop Sankey TEN 9 23 27 66.0 60 73
20 Michael Crabtree SF 8 18 23 51.5 46 60
21 DeSean Jackson WAS 10 20 22 53.0 51 55
22 Roddy White ATL 9 21 23 53.8 53 55
24 Torrey Smith BAL 11 23 25 62.8 58 72
25 Michael Floyd ARZ 4 25 31 72.0 59 86
27 Mike Wallace MIA 5 24 29 77.0 70 85
7 Greg Olsen CAR 12 7 8 58.0 51 63
8 Jordan Reed WAS 10 8 11 65.3 61 70
Your pick of K and D.
I think you'd contend in best ball.
ZWK
Footballguy
QB4 is average, if you take the mean (rather than the median). Last year's top 12 QBs averaged 353 points, in standard FBG scoring. Last year's QB4 (Stafford) scored 348 points. So QB4 was actually slightly below average. Manning & Brees accounted for most of the QB VBD, and then there was a big pack behind them. If you had Stafford then you were near the front of that pack, but you were still losing out on a lot by being in the pack and not having Manning or Brees. (A lot of leagues were won by Manning owners.)
For next year, I see a clear top 3 QBs and then a large tier break. I actually have the guy who's currently being drafted as QB4 at the end of round 4 (Stafford) neck-and-neck with the guy who's currently being drafted as QB10 three rounds later (Newton). Either one would put me pretty close to average in terms of expected scoring at the QB spot.
TE is similar - last year's top 12 averaged 131, last year's TE4 (Cameron) scored 134. Though I do think that Cameron has a bit of a lead on the pack as my TE4 for next year.
gonzobill5
Footballguy
I hadn't thought of it in those terms, but now I do see the connection.FUBAR said:
I was thinking about how it relates to how & when people begin to deviate from consensus rankings. For example, my 4th round (ppr) team would be:
QB: Luck
RB: Vereen, Gerhart, Sankey, Chris Johnson, Mathews
WR: Harvin, Andre Johnson, Cruz, Fitz, Roddy
TE: Cameron
That's a team I think would contend for a title. It has upside at every position and would have better depth at RB & WR than any team in the league (remember, no other team would have a 4th round pick which means every other team would have a deficiency at RB2 or WR2 or both if they took a TE/QB in the first few rounds). But what is more interesting is that those players have consensus ranking between 37 and 56. While I made these picks using my personal rankings, I didn't even consider a player ranked beyond round 5 of consensus rankings. In other words, it looks exactly like the other round 4 teams posted here.
Meanwhile, this would be my 6th round team:
QB: Foles
RB: Gore, MJD, Moreno, SJax, Khiry Robinson
WR: Colston, Hilton, Wright, Torrey Smith, Tavon Austin
TE: Witten
These players have consensus rankings between 61 and 114 which means I "reached" as far as round 10 on some players. This is the point at which my rankings finally diverge from consensus.
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