Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
tdmills

[Dynasty] Todd Gurley

Recommended Posts

CJ Anderson 66 carries, 422 yds, 6.39 ypc.  <$1m salary

Todd Gurley 272 carries, 1366 yds, 5.02 ypc.  ~$14.5m salary

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So they have to bring CJ back next year right? That would have some impact on Gurley’s value I would think?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think they were playing it safe with their all world RB. I seriously doubt he's suddenly going to enter a time share with CJ. McVay is no dummy. 

Edited by ffmail4me
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, ffmail4me said:

I think they were playing it safe with their all world RB. I seriously doubt he's suddenly going to enter a time share with CJ. McVay is no dummy. 

Yeah I dunno...

ETA not suggesting a time share just that Gurley’s production could possibly be impacted some

Edited by Tool

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, ffmail4me said:

I think they were playing it safe with their all world RB. I seriously doubt he's suddenly going to enter a time share with CJ. McVay is no dummy. 

This. Gurley looked fine to me. Why run him into the ground when CJ Anderson also looked great? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

McVay said it was a cardio thing, he wasn't sure Gurley would be game shape to play his usual load. Betting next round we see a lot more of him. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, ffmail4me said:

McVay said it was a cardio thing, he wasn't sure Gurley would be game shape to play his usual load. Betting next round we see a lot more of him. 

CJ looked phenomenal though.   He also looked as big as Ironhead Heyward.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, Tool said:

So they have to bring CJ back next year right? That would have some impact on Gurley’s value I would think?

Malcolm Brown is a FA so they got a spot open to back up Gurley but CJ might have shown enough to get a better opportunity somewhere else.

Until last season CJ Anderson had never cracked 200 carries in a season, college or pro. 188 max. Finally did it last season and was so unimpressive Denver moved on and interest in him around the league was pretty low. He has without question performed outstanding this yer but I think it's got to do with having fresh legs later in the season for a RB who's been at his best in few game spurts during his career. I believe the best CJ Anderson is one who has been barely been used all season and gets unleashed late in the season. I would not be the least bit worried about Gurley if he should return to the Rams next year.

I'm glad Gurley worked his extension out with the Rams, for sure don't want him playing with anyone else. What does appear obvious is McVay seems pretty adept at putting a running game together and while Gurley is clearly world class this team has the look of one of those teams than can get big time RB production, for at least a few game stretch, from what seems sometimes as just about anybody. I feel like if Malcolm Brown had remained healthy he'd have also been rolling during Gurley's absence.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, ffmail4me said:

McVay said it was a cardio thing, he wasn't sure Gurley would be game shape to play his usual load. Betting next round we see a lot more of him. 

Didn't they combine for like 35 carries? No way game plan was to give Gurley the bulk of those carries. 

Will be interesting if CJA gets enough interest to earn a decent check, but my guess is they bring him back on the cheap. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, ffmail4me said:

I think they were playing it safe with their all world RB. I seriously doubt he's suddenly going to enter a time share with CJ. McVay is no dummy. 

Evan Silva‏Verified account @evansilva

Following Following @evansilva

More

Evan Silva Retweeted Next Gen Stats

Todd Gurley looked as good as new after 3-week layoff, yet was still outplayed & deservedly out-touched by CJ Anderson. #Rams #MemberWhenGurleyWasMVP

Evan Silva added,

Next Gen StatsVerified account @NextGenStats

Todd Gurley didn't seem bothered by his knee injury today. @TG3II averaged 12.08 MPH at the line of scrimmage on his rushes, his fastest in a game this season. He had 6 carries reaching 15+ MPH, a season high. …

5:51 AM - 13 Jan 2019

Seems like a lot of smart people in the industry think that Gurley is overrated.  Why is that?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, tjnc09 said:

seems like a lot of smart people in the industry think that Gurley is overrated.  Why is that?

because he's not an arrogant media hog, so he gets to play the role as the consensus overrated superstar

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, tjnc09 said:

Evan Silva‏Verified account @evansilva

Following Following @evansilva

More

Evan Silva Retweeted Next Gen Stats

Todd Gurley looked as good as new after 3-week layoff, yet was still outplayed & deservedly out-touched by CJ Anderson. #Rams #MemberWhenGurleyWasMVP

Evan Silva added,

Next Gen StatsVerified account @NextGenStats

Todd Gurley didn't seem bothered by his knee injury today. @TG3II averaged 12.08 MPH at the line of scrimmage on his rushes, his fastest in a game this season. He had 6 carries reaching 15+ MPH, a season high. …

5:51 AM - 13 Jan 2019

Seems like a lot of smart people in the industry think that Gurley is overrated.  Why is that?

And there’s easily 5 times the number of smart industry people who don’t.   Why is that?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, dkp993 said:

And there’s easily 5 times the number of smart industry people who don’t.   Why is that?

Provide your links if it's that easy.  Nobody who uses advanced metrics agrees with you.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It cracks me up that Todd Gurley could tear his ACL in practice and Vegas wouldn't move the spread for this week's game a single point.  The "best" RB in the league is literally worth ZERO points over his replacement.  Bookmakers are willing to accept millions of dollars in wagers on the notion that Gurley has no added value over a RB that was cut by two terrible teams this year.  The fact that people still defend his value after I pointed that out is simply mind boggling.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, IheartGuinness said:

Yeah, easily. He's phenomenal.

His thing is this....

Better long range speed and more gears to shift into.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 hours ago, dkp993 said:

And there’s easily 5 times the number of smart industry people who don’t.   Why is that?

still waiting

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, tjnc09 said:

still waiting

 

 

Don’t hold your breath.  Or, go ahead....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, dkp993 said:

Don’t hold your breath.  Or, go ahead....

Are you admitting you can't actually defend Gurley's value with an intelligent discussion?  It really shouldn't be this difficult considering what you think of him.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, tjnc09 said:

Are you admitting you can't actually defend Gurley's value with an intelligent discussion?  It really shouldn't be this difficult considering what you think of him.

Not in the slightest. I’m just regretting replying to you as this is pointless. You believe what you do and won’t be swayed (as you’ve made it clear, you think you’re smarter then everyone) and I’m perfectly confident in mine.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, dkp993 said:

Not in the slightest. I’m just regretting replying to you as this is pointless. You believe what you do and won’t be swayed (as you’ve made it clear, you think you’re smarter then everyone) and I’m perfectly confident in mine.  

lol you were the only who willingly responded to my post from Silva.  I then ask you to defend something YOU wrote and now all of a sudden it's a waste of time to respond.  

Edited by tjnc09

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, tjnc09 said:

lol you were the only who willingly responded to my post from Silva.  I then ask you to defend something YOU wrote and now all of a sudden it's a waste of time to respond.  It's cool - I am 100% certain now that you aren't capable of defending your opinion about Gurley.  

You’re struggling to understand my “regretting replying to you” part I see. It’s cool - I’m 100% certain I couldn’t care less about what you think I’m capable of.  

I’m done derailing this thread and I apologize to all for my engagement here.  I should have known better. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Cameron DaSilva‏Verified account @camdasilva

Follow Follow @camdasilva

More

Wondering what the difference between the Rams' and Cowboys' run defenses were on Saturday? Look how often each loaded the box with 8+ defenders (via Next Gen Stats) Ezekiel Elliott: 40% CJ Anderson: 17.39% Todd Gurley: 6.25%

5:39 AM - 14 Jan 2019

The only reason Gurley ever does anything is because McVay spreads the offense out.  He faced one loaded box the entire night.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On ‎1‎/‎12‎/‎2019 at 10:03 PM, tjnc09 said:

CJ Anderson 66 carries, 422 yds, 6.39 ypc.  <$1m salary

Todd Gurley 272 carries, 1366 yds, 5.02 ypc.  ~$14.5m salary

 

Three common opponents:

CJ Anderson 70 rush/rec, 439 yds, 6.27 ypt

Todd Gurley 59 rush/rec, 277 yds, 4.69 ypt

I even included Gurley's receptions to boost his average up 🤔

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On ‎1‎/‎13‎/‎2019 at 8:35 AM, ffmail4me said:

I think they were playing it safe with their all world RB. I seriously doubt he's suddenly going to enter a time share with CJ. McVay is no dummy. 

He wasn't 100% with his cardio after a four week layoff from what I read.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On ‎1‎/‎14‎/‎2019 at 2:12 AM, tjnc09 said:

It cracks me up that Todd Gurley could tear his ACL in practice and Vegas wouldn't move the spread for this week's game a single point.  The "best" RB in the league is literally worth ZERO points over his replacement.  Bookmakers are willing to accept millions of dollars in wagers on the notion that Gurley has no added value over a RB that was cut by two terrible teams this year.  The fact that people still defend his value after I pointed that out is simply mind boggling.

Other than Goff or maybe Donald - which single player loss for the Rams would move the line?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Other than Goff or maybe Donald - which single player loss for the Rams would move the line?

Nobody (if more than one OL were out it could impact the spread).  Their offensive success is largely due to an elite OL and McVay being a genius.  Plus, we have a sample of both Goff and Gurley being horrific in systems other than McVay's.

Professional bettors bet numbers, not names.  If Gurley truly had a value over his replacement RB, the market would shift and that never happened in the two games he was out.

I don't care what people think of me or how I present my opinion,  but shouldn't someone as "great" as Gurley add some value to his team - even if it's only an extra FG per game?  That's simply not the case.  

Blake Bortles has more marginal value over his replacement than Gurley does his. 🤷‍♂️

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, tjnc09 said:

Nobody (if more than one OL were out it could impact the spread).  Their offensive success is largely due to an elite OL and McVay being a genius.  Plus, we have a sample of both Goff and Gurley being horrific in systems other than McVay's.

Professional bettors bet numbers, not names.  If Gurley truly had a value over his replacement RB, the market would shift and that never happened in the two games he was out.

I don't care what people think of me or how I present my opinion,  but shouldn't someone as "great" as Gurley add some value to his team - even if it's only an extra FG per game?  That's simply not the case.  

Blake Bortles has more marginal value over his replacement than Gurley does his. 🤷‍♂️

Then basically what you're saying is outside of the QB, no players actually matter. Does that sound like a reasonable position?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Then basically what you're saying is outside of the QB, no players actually matter. Does that sound like a reasonable position?

There are probably 20 non-QBs that matter.  Apparently Gurley is not one of them.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Then basically what you're saying is outside of the QB, no players actually matter. Does that sound like a reasonable position?

I think he's saying that for the Rams specifically, and with the personnel they have. 

I don't agree with his overall point about Gurley but as a compulsive gambler the point he's making is actually fairly sound. If guys like Zeke or Tyreek or MT or Barkley or AB or Kelce or Kamara miss time the line would probably move. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I don't agree with his overall point about Gurley but as a compulsive gambler the point he's making is actually fairly sound. 

What overall point don't you agree with?  Vegas is a lot smarter than I am and they have concluded he literally has no value over his replacement.  That means he is vastly overrated.  Other RBs like Barkley and Elliot will move a line.  That additional fact means he can't be the best RB in the league.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, tjnc09 said:

What overall point don't you agree with?  Vegas is a lot smarter than I am and they have concluded he literally has no value over his replacement.  That means he is vastly overrated.  Other RBs like Barkley and Elliot will move a line.  That additional fact means he can't be the best RB in the league.  

I like how you take the Vegas information for a single game and inflate that to mean that he cannot be the best player in the league and is vastly overrated.  That's cute.

A different person would look at this information and say that in the context of the Saints vs the Rams on Sunday, January 20, 2019, there is very little difference between the expected outcome of the game whether or not Todd Gurley plays.  This can have any number of meanings for future games, or none at all.   I lean toward the latter.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

I like how you take the Vegas information for a single game and inflate that to mean that he cannot be the best player in the league and is vastly overrated.  That's cute.

A different person would look at this information and say that in the context of the Saints vs the Rams on Sunday, January 20, 2019, there is very little difference between the expected outcome of the game whether or not Todd Gurley plays.  This can have any number of meanings for future games, or none at all.   I lean toward the latter.

:lmao: my Vegas information is not for a single game. Everything in your post is wrong because you made a terrible assumption.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, tjnc09 said:

:lmao: my Vegas information is not for a single game. Everything in your post is wrong because you made a terrible assumption.  

Do you think if Gurley tore his ACL during the preseason, the Rams Win Over-Under line would be adjusted at all?

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, tjnc09 said:

:lmao: my Vegas information is not for a single game. Everything in your post is wrong because you made a terrible assumption.  

 

On 1/14/2019 at 2:12 AM, tjnc09 said:

It cracks me up that Todd Gurley could tear his ACL in practice and Vegas wouldn't move the spread for this week's game a single point.  The "best" RB in the league is literally worth ZERO points over his replacement.  Bookmakers are willing to accept millions of dollars in wagers on the notion that Gurley has no added value over a RB that was cut by two terrible teams this year.  The fact that people still defend his value after I pointed that out is simply mind boggling.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And the NFL conference championships have a massive betting handle.  An inefficient line by even half a point can invite a large amount of unwanted exposure for the books.  If I was forced to pick one game besides the Super Bowl that signifies how invaluable Gurley is, it would absolutely be this game against the Saints.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, tangfoot said:

 

 

That was a single example that RBs rarely have any effect on the spread.  You could have asked me to clarify instead of assuming.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, tjnc09 said:

That was a single example that RBs rarely have any effect on the spread.  You could have asked me to clarify instead of assuming.

Well, rereading this ####show, I now see that you are on a fantasy football board talking about players value in relation to how they affect gambling outcomes.  The isn't a 1:1 correlation between the two, so it really doesn't matter that the vast majority of the fantasy football world has Gurley pegged as the #1 RB in the league while the gambling world is run by a complete different set of rules.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Do you think if Gurley tore his ACL during the preseason, the Rams Win Over-Under line would be adjusted at all?

That's a good question.  I would think some because of the public perception of a player like Gurley, but it wouldn't be significant - perhaps half a game.  

The Steelers win total this year was still high, but that situation isn't really applicable since it was assumed Bell would be playing.  

Do you know a high profile RB who had a season ending injury before the season started?  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

Well, rereading this ####show, I now see that you are on a fantasy football board talking about players value in relation to how they affect gambling outcomes.  The isn't a 1:1 correlation between the two, so it really doesn't matter that the vast majority of the fantasy football world has Gurley pegged as the #1 RB in the league while the gambling world is run by a complete different set of rules.

Yes, Gurley is the benefactor of an incredible OL and system.  RBs are overrated when talking about real football (or gambling).  Not really sure why that triggers people so easily.  

Gurley as the primary back in McVay's system is an incredible FANTASY football player.  Volume, goal line opportunities, game scripts, play designs... all work in his favor.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, tjnc09 said:

Yes, Gurley is the benefactor of an incredible OL and system.  RBs are overrated when talking about real football (or gambling).  Not really sure why that triggers people so easily.  

Gurley as the primary back in McVay's system is an incredible FANTASY football player.  Volume, goal line opportunities, game scripts, play designs... all work in his favor.

Well, you are badmouthing a player on a fantasy football website.  I think you need to be more mindful of your audience.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.