Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
tdmills

[Dynasty] Todd Gurley

Recommended Posts

Gurley is incredible. A big guy who was a top notch track and field guy too, a freak of nature. For someone his size to have that kind of athletic ability is so rare.

The more i think about it the more i think he's going in the top 10 of the draft. A clean ACL tear for a 20 year old shouldn't really end up being much of an issue.

it's arguable that he's the #1 dynasty RB right now.

#2 behind Bell actually ha

no argument there. i'd take Bell before him, but not by much.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gurley is incredible. A big guy who was a top notch track and field guy too, a freak of nature. For someone his size to have that kind of athletic ability is so rare.

The more i think about it the more i think he's going in the top 10 of the draft. A clean ACL tear for a 20 year old shouldn't really end up being much of an issue.

it's arguable that he's the #1 dynasty RB right now.

#2 behind Bell actually ha

no argument there. i'd take Bell before him, but not by much.

I wouldn't. Obviously, if all conditions remain the same in PIT, it might be hard to outproduce Bell. But, things change so fast in this league, I'll take talent over situation long-term. And Gurley > Bell from a talent perspective.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gurley is incredible. A big guy who was a top notch track and field guy too, a freak of nature. For someone his size to have that kind of athletic ability is so rare.

The more i think about it the more i think he's going in the top 10 of the draft. A clean ACL tear for a 20 year old shouldn't really end up being much of an issue.

it's arguable that he's the #1 dynasty RB right now.

#2 behind Bell actually ha

no argument there. i'd take Bell before him, but not by much.

I wouldn't. Obviously, if all conditions remain the same in PIT, it might be hard to outproduce Bell. But, things change so fast in this league, I'll take talent over situation long-term. And Gurley > Bell from a talent perspective.

I can see that. if push came to shove would be very tough call between Gurley/Bell for me. Gun to my head i'd probably take Bell but not sure. Gurley is just so beastly.

Have we ever had a situation where an incoming rookie could be the #1 dynasty RB? Can't remember one.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gurley is incredible. A big guy who was a top notch track and field guy too, a freak of nature. For someone his size to have that kind of athletic ability is so rare.

The more i think about it the more i think he's going in the top 10 of the draft. A clean ACL tear for a 20 year old shouldn't really end up being much of an issue.

it's arguable that he's the #1 dynasty RB right now.

#2 behind Bell actually ha

no argument there. i'd take Bell before him, but not by much.

I wouldn't. Obviously, if all conditions remain the same in PIT, it might be hard to outproduce Bell. But, things change so fast in this league, I'll take talent over situation long-term. And Gurley > Bell from a talent perspective.

I can see that. if push came to shove would be very tough call between Gurley/Bell for me. Gun to my head i'd probably take Bell but not sure. Gurley is just so beastly.

Have we ever had a situation where an incoming rookie could be the #1 dynasty RB? Can't remember one.

2012 - Trent Richardson

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gurley is incredible. A big guy who was a top notch track and field guy too, a freak of nature. For someone his size to have that kind of athletic ability is so rare.

The more i think about it the more i think he's going in the top 10 of the draft. A clean ACL tear for a 20 year old shouldn't really end up being much of an issue.

it's arguable that he's the #1 dynasty RB right now.

#2 behind Bell actually ha

no argument there. i'd take Bell before him, but not by much.

I wouldn't. Obviously, if all conditions remain the same in PIT, it might be hard to outproduce Bell. But, things change so fast in this league, I'll take talent over situation long-term. And Gurley > Bell from a talent perspective.

I can see that. if push came to shove would be very tough call between Gurley/Bell for me. Gun to my head i'd probably take Bell but not sure. Gurley is just so beastly.

Have we ever had a situation where an incoming rookie could be the #1 dynasty RB? Can't remember one.

2012 - Trent Richardson

that's a good point and i was huge on T-Rich but Gurley is a far better athlete. I like Gurley more than i liked Richardson but was very high on Richardson coming out of college. Maybe i'm wrong again, but Gurley seems to be very driven and has all the talent in the world. Richardson doesn't seem to care about football anymore.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gurley is incredible. A big guy who was a top notch track and field guy too, a freak of nature. For someone his size to have that kind of athletic ability is so rare.

The more i think about it the more i think he's going in the top 10 of the draft. A clean ACL tear for a 20 year old shouldn't really end up being much of an issue.

it's arguable that he's the #1 dynasty RB right now.

#2 behind Bell actually ha

no argument there. i'd take Bell before him, but not by much.

I wouldn't. Obviously, if all conditions remain the same in PIT, it might be hard to outproduce Bell. But, things change so fast in this league, I'll take talent over situation long-term. And Gurley > Bell from a talent perspective.

I can see that. if push came to shove would be very tough call between Gurley/Bell for me. Gun to my head i'd probably take Bell but not sure. Gurley is just so beastly.

Have we ever had a situation where an incoming rookie could be the #1 dynasty RB? Can't remember one.

2012 - Trent Richardson

He could have been if he'd shown more, for sure. Would have only taken half a season of great production, and even without it he made the top-5 easily and the 1st round in start-ups. But McCoy and Charles and AP were all still productive and young enough to hold Trent off for the most part.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gurley is incredible. A big guy who was a top notch track and field guy too, a freak of nature. For someone his size to have that kind of athletic ability is so rare.

The more i think about it the more i think he's going in the top 10 of the draft. A clean ACL tear for a 20 year old shouldn't really end up being much of an issue.

it's arguable that he's the #1 dynasty RB right now.

#2 behind Bell actually ha

no argument there. i'd take Bell before him, but not by much.

I wouldn't. Obviously, if all conditions remain the same in PIT, it might be hard to outproduce Bell. But, things change so fast in this league, I'll take talent over situation long-term. And Gurley > Bell from a talent perspective.

I can see that. if push came to shove would be very tough call between Gurley/Bell for me. Gun to my head i'd probably take Bell but not sure. Gurley is just so beastly.

Have we ever had a situation where an incoming rookie could be the #1 dynasty RB? Can't remember one.

I think Bell is being underrated from a talent standpoint.

Pitt is a good situation, but it's not great. Blount averaged 4.1ypc there before going on to average 4.7ypc on New England without knowing the playbook. Bell is not just a guy in a good spot. He wasn't considered a great prospect, but I think we can say two things about that...

1) His vision was clearly underrated, and is underrated in general as an asset for running backs.

2) With the weight loss he is much more physically gifted than people gave him credit for as a prospect. He doesn't have the top end speed of Gurley but his burst is very good (not quite Gurley level) and his lateral agility probably exceeds Gurley's at this point.

Physically, he's not Gurley but he's not THAT far behind, and I think the elite vision and elite receiving ability really make him a talent match for Gurley even regardless of the situation. Having a coach that recognizes that of him and is willing to give him the ball a ton in all facets of the game is of course, a nice bonus.

I would put Gurley firmly at #2, behind Bell. They're similar in talent (they just excel in different areas) and of course Bell's situation and role and already known.

Edited by FreeBaGeL
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gurley has elite vision and receiving ability. :shrug:

Gurley is a decent enough receiver out of the backfield, but Le'Veon Bell is running WR routes downfield and lining up in the slot like no workhorse RB has since a 23 year old Steven Jackson. Gurley isn't in the same stratosphere here.

The jury is still out on Gurley's vision. As we saw with Trent Richardson in Bama, it's difficult to judge a college RB's vision when they're playing behind a dominant offensive line opening up gaping holes, and Georgia very much was that dominant offensive line opening up gaping holes. All they did when Gurley was out was lead the other Georgia RBs to 2300 yards and 29 TDs at nearly 7ypc.

I say all this as someone with a huge Gurboner. I traded for as many 2015 1st round picks as I could pile up last year in the hopes that one of them would end up being 1.01 for Gurley and, if not, so I could package a few together for. I will have him on almost all of my teams. But to compare his receiving ability and vision with Bell, who may be #1 in the NFL in both of those categories (discounting receiving specialists like Sproles, though he may even be better than them) is exceedingly premature. Gurley may end up there in those categories, but the jury is very much still out on both of them.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I like Gurley a lot, but the talk of ranking him the same or higher than Bell is straight lunacy.

If Gurley's knee heals perfectly, and he goes to a decent landing spot, and he works his tail off, and his college game translates well to the NFL, and if he has the mental capacity for what it takes to be a really good NFL player (and I don't mean "intelligence", I mean the personality traits and attitude the better players tend to have.................................if all these things work out which is clearly not even remotely close to being a guarantee, then he will be right there with Bell.

Putting him there now or ahead NOW????? Seems like all risk and very little (if any) reward. The reward is that he becomes Bell. The risk is that he blows.

I would think this same way about him even if he hadn't gotten hurt.

Like many people here, I generally prefer talent over situation. However, let's say Gurley is actually more talented than Bell. In this case, I really don't care because Bell is very talented, in a good offense, and shows he has a very high level of NFL skill for the position. Even his measurables are less than Gurley, his on the field play is fabulous, and looks like he would still be excellent even if in a lesser offense.

Frankly I am shocked that anyone in fantasy land would actually have to think about it for half a second if given the choice between Bell and Gurley.

Gurley looks like he is gonna be real, real good...........but wow.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

One thing though, I really don't like bringing Trent Richardson into the conversation. The chances of Gurley sucking like Trich are about 1 in a million.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I can see Atlanta taking Gurley and instantly moving to the head of the NFC South. If not them then the Giants are another early candidate. After that, there are several at the bottom of the 1st who are nice fits.

I agree that the Falcons could take Gurley but for different reasons. Quinn saw what Lynch did for that team and knows what he did for the Hawks defense.

If he believes that Gurley can be an all pro back then I can see him making the pick. He knows that he can find and build players for his defensive system later in the draft (and shortly after). There's no doubt that DL play contributed to Seattle's success, I just think Quinn has enough confidence in his system to go offense early. Kind of a reverse Chip Kelly.

i think you need some decent defensive players for that plan to work.

I agree but (going strictly off of my poor memory) most of that Seattle defense was/is filled with guys that weren't projected to be superstars except maybe Earl Thomas. Which might lead Quinn to look towards the offense in round one and defense most of the way after that. With some OL sprinkled in.

Gurley gives them a triplet set of Ryan, Jones, Gurley. I think it's also possible for them to go OL. My guess is OL, RB, Pass Russher in that order depending on how they view the talent deeper in the draft.

Who knows really though. The only thing I'm trying to get at is that I don't think it should come as a surprise or be seen as a bad move if the Falcons take Gurley.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I can see Atlanta taking Gurley and instantly moving to the head of the NFC South. If not them then the Giants are another early candidate. After that, there are several at the bottom of the 1st who are nice fits.

I agree that the Falcons could take Gurley but for different reasons. Quinn saw what Lynch did for that team and knows what he did for the Hawks defense.

If he believes that Gurley can be an all pro back then I can see him making the pick. He knows that he can find and build players for his defensive system later in the draft (and shortly after). There's no doubt that DL play contributed to Seattle's success, I just think Quinn has enough confidence in his system to go offense early. Kind of a reverse Chip Kelly.

i think you need some decent defensive players for that plan to work.

I agree but (going strictly off of my poor memory) most of that Seattle defense was/is filled with guys that weren't projected to be superstars except maybe Earl Thomas. Which might lead Quinn to look towards the offense in round one and defense most of the way after that. With some OL sprinkled in.

Gurley gives them a triplet set of Ryan, Jones, Gurley. I think it's also possible for them to go OL. My guess is OL, RB, Pass Russher in that order depending on how they view the talent deeper in the draft.

Who knows really though. The only thing I'm trying to get at is that I don't think it should come as a surprise or be seen as a bad move if the Falcons take Gurley.

it's a fairly terrible move, but it wouldn't be a surprise

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I would hope when people say that he's 2nd behind Bell (myself included), they wouldn't actually take Gurley that high in a startup. I know I don't mean that. What I mean is that I LOVE Gurley as a prospect and could see him in that discussion relatively soon, but if you took him as the #2 dynasty RB in a startup (likely would be 1st round), you're crazy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Rotoworld:

Todd Gurley - RB - Player

In a poll of 20 NFL personnel men, Georgia's Todd Gurley received 13 votes as this year's top running back prospect.

Wisconsin's Melvin Gordon garnered the other seven first-place votes. The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel used a "points system" based on rankings provided by the scouts. Behind Gurley and Gordon in "points" were Ameer Abdullah as this year's No. 3 running back, T.J. Yeldon at No. 4, Tevin Coleman at No. 5, Duke Johnson at No. 6, and Jay Ajayi (knee) at No. 7. Javorius Allen, David Johnson, and David Cobb/Jeremy Langford (tie for 10th) rounded out the top ten.

Source: Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel

Apr 25 - 11:18 PM

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Rotoworld:

"Multiple sources" tell the Miami Herald that the Dolphins "covet" Georgia RB Todd Gurley, and "would love" for Gurley to fall to them at No. 14.

No. 14 would be considered a "fall" for Gurley, who is now seen as a probable top-ten pick. Many NFL evaluators view Gurley as one of the best all-around players in an otherwise weak 2015 draft class. The Herald spoke to Miami Heat team physician Harlan Selesnick, who said the risk of an ACL re-tear is just two percent for pro athletes. "The success rate in terms of stability is really quite good," Selesnick stated. "You dont see a lot of guys having a repeat ACL surgery. You can usually feel comfortable taking one of those players."

Related: Dolphins

Source: Miami Herald

Apr 26 - 12:41 PM

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We have a sample size of 1 year with Bell producing elite numbers. Followed by injury and a suspension. I'm just saying, let's not fall all over ourselves in assuming what we saw in 2014, which was obviously really good, albeit boosted by an insane reception rate (80+), will be repeated. Ever. He was well regarded out of college, but no scout, no team thought of him as an elite talent. His summer 2014 fantasy rankings reflected this. I'm not going to pass on Gurley, an elite talent in dynasty, over a guy who has all the signs that he's getting an artificial bump in ratings from a huge outlier year in production.

Edited by Proust Loves Cake

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We have a sample size of 1 year with Bell producing elite numbers. Followed by injury and a suspension. I'm just saying, let's not fall all over ourselves in assuming what we saw in 2014, which was obviously really good, albeit boosted by an insane reception rate (80+), will be repeated. Ever. He was well regarded out of college, but no scout, no team thought of him as an elite talent. His summer 2014 fantasy rankings reflected this. I'm not going to pass on Gurley, an elite talent in dynasty, over a guy who has all the signs that he's getting an artificial bump in ratings from a huge outlier year in production.

That logic would have worked really poorly with guys like Arian Foster and Priest Holmes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We have a sample size of 1 year with Bell producing elite numbers. Followed by injury and a suspension. I'm just saying, let's not fall all over ourselves in assuming what we saw in 2014, which was obviously really good, albeit boosted by an insane reception rate (80+), will be repeated. Ever. He was well regarded out of college, but no scout, no team thought of him as an elite talent. His summer 2014 fantasy rankings reflected this. I'm not going to pass on Gurley, an elite talent in dynasty, over a guy who has all the signs that he's getting an artificial bump in ratings from a huge outlier year in production.

Again, I think it's a misconception that Bell is just an average guy in a good situation. People are forgetting that everyone was saying "WOW, this guy looks amazing" right out of the gates this past year, well before he had compiled the production to match.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We have a sample size of 1 year with Bell producing elite numbers. Followed by injury and a suspension. I'm just saying, let's not fall all over ourselves in assuming what we saw in 2014, which was obviously really good, albeit boosted by an insane reception rate (80+), will be repeated. Ever. He was well regarded out of college, but no scout, no team thought of him as an elite talent. His summer 2014 fantasy rankings reflected this. I'm not going to pass on Gurley, an elite talent in dynasty, over a guy who has all the signs that he's getting an artificial bump in ratings from a huge outlier year in production.

That logic would have worked really poorly with guys like Arian Foster and Priest Holmes.

But would have fit well for Chris Johnson, DeAngelo Williams, Maurice Jones-Drew.

Ultimately, this isn't a logic experiment. You can drum up all the logistical regressions you want, but at the end of the day, I'm just saying my gut is that Bell regresses due to numerous factors and that Gurley's talent is superior and will carry him through to a better dynasty career, starting pretty early, in fact. If you disagree, that's perfectly understandable. You probably have the masses on your side.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We have a sample size of 1 year with Bell producing elite numbers. Followed by injury and a suspension. I'm just saying, let's not fall all over ourselves in assuming what we saw in 2014, which was obviously really good, albeit boosted by an insane reception rate (80+), will be repeated. Ever. He was well regarded out of college, but no scout, no team thought of him as an elite talent. His summer 2014 fantasy rankings reflected this. I'm not going to pass on Gurley, an elite talent in dynasty, over a guy who has all the signs that he's getting an artificial bump in ratings from a huge outlier year in production.

Again, I think it's a misconception that Bell is just an average guy in a good situation. People are forgetting that everyone was saying "WOW, this guy looks amazing" right out of the gates this past year, well before he had compiled the production to match.

Sure. And if he keeps the weight off, if he doesn't smoke weed, if the offense doesn't change a thing, perhaps he repeats his impressive 2014 campaign.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm very tempted to put Gurley as the #1 RB in dynasty because I do think he will enter the NFL as maybe the most physically talented RB. Omitting AD because he's just too old to really prop up there in dynasty. Of RBs 26 and younger, he's better than anyone IMO.

I haven't yet decided if I'd rank him there or not. He's in my top 3 for sure though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We have a sample size of 1 year with Bell producing elite numbers. Followed by injury and a suspension. I'm just saying, let's not fall all over ourselves in assuming what we saw in 2014, which was obviously really good, albeit boosted by an insane reception rate (80+), will be repeated. Ever. He was well regarded out of college, but no scout, no team thought of him as an elite talent. His summer 2014 fantasy rankings reflected this. I'm not going to pass on Gurley, an elite talent in dynasty, over a guy who has all the signs that he's getting an artificial bump in ratings from a huge outlier year in production.

That logic would have worked really poorly with guys like Arian Foster and Priest Holmes.
But would have fit well for Chris Johnson, DeAngelo Williams, Maurice Jones-Drew.

Ultimately, this isn't a logic experiment. You can drum up all the logistical regressions you want, but at the end of the day, I'm just saying my gut is that Bell regresses due to numerous factors and that Gurley's talent is superior and will carry him through to a better dynasty career, starting pretty early, in fact. If you disagree, that's perfectly understandable. You probably have the masses on your side.

MJD had multiple really good years. I get what you are saying --- Bell very well could regress. But even if he regresses a bit, he is still worth a lot.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm very tempted to put Gurley as the #1 RB in dynasty because I do think he will enter the NFL as maybe the most physically talented RB. Omitting AD because he's just too old to really prop up there in dynasty. Of RBs 26 and younger, he's better than anyone IMO.

I haven't yet decided if I'd rank him there or not. He's in my top 3 for sure though.

I agree with this 100%. If Gurley looks like a quality starter right out of the gates, there are few (if any) RBs I would trade him for straight up next offseason.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is anyone concerned that chubb balled just as hard as gurley? That gurley's production might be more representative of situation than talent? Or is chubb just going to be the next big thing?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We have a sample size of 1 year with Bell producing elite numbers. Followed by injury and a suspension. I'm just saying, let's not fall all over ourselves in assuming what we saw in 2014, which was obviously really good, albeit boosted by an insane reception rate (80+), will be repeated. Ever. He was well regarded out of college, but no scout, no team thought of him as an elite talent. His summer 2014 fantasy rankings reflected this. I'm not going to pass on Gurley, an elite talent in dynasty, over a guy who has all the signs that he's getting an artificial bump in ratings from a huge outlier year in production.

That logic would have worked really poorly with guys like Arian Foster and Priest Holmes.

But would have fit well for Chris Johnson, DeAngelo Williams, Maurice Jones-Drew.

Ultimately, this isn't a logic experiment. You can drum up all the logistical regressions you want, but at the end of the day, I'm just saying my gut is that Bell regresses due to numerous factors and that Gurley's talent is superior and will carry him through to a better dynasty career, starting pretty early, in fact. If you disagree, that's perfectly understandable. You probably have the masses on your side.

If you take Gurley at pick 1 and his career mimics Chris Johnson or MJD, then you should feel pretty good about it

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm very tempted to put Gurley as the #1 RB in dynasty because I do think he will enter the NFL as maybe the most physically talented RB. Omitting AD because he's just too old to really prop up there in dynasty. Of RBs 26 and younger, he's better than anyone IMO.

I haven't yet decided if I'd rank him there or not. He's in my top 3 for sure though.

I agree with this 100%. If Gurley looks like a quality starter right out of the gates, there are few (if any) RBs I would trade him for straight up next offseason.

Correct. But until then, wow, would be insanity to rank him #1.

Why pay #1 pricing for him now when you can pay #1 pricing for him once you are 100x more confident he will actually be good.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We have a sample size of 1 year with Bell producing elite numbers. Followed by injury and a suspension. I'm just saying, let's not fall all over ourselves in assuming what we saw in 2014, which was obviously really good, albeit boosted by an insane reception rate (80+), will be repeated. Ever. He was well regarded out of college, but no scout, no team thought of him as an elite talent. His summer 2014 fantasy rankings reflected this. I'm not going to pass on Gurley, an elite talent in dynasty, over a guy who has all the signs that he's getting an artificial bump in ratings from a huge outlier year in production.

That logic would have worked really poorly with guys like Arian Foster and Priest Holmes.
But would have fit well for Chris Johnson, DeAngelo Williams, Maurice Jones-Drew.

Ultimately, this isn't a logic experiment. You can drum up all the logistical regressions you want, but at the end of the day, I'm just saying my gut is that Bell regresses due to numerous factors and that Gurley's talent is superior and will carry him through to a better dynasty career, starting pretty early, in fact. If you disagree, that's perfectly understandable. You probably have the masses on your side.

MJD had multiple really good years. I get what you are saying --- Bell very well could regress. But even if he regresses a bit, he is still worth a lot.

Exactly. There is a lot of real estate between a regression and zero value. Just because I don't think he'll be a #1 RB doesn't mean I think he's a bum. I assume he will have a strong few years, maybe even have a Curtis Martin-esque career arc. But, I don't expect he will ever land #1 amongst RBs again, whereas I think Gurley has that kind of talent.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm very tempted to put Gurley as the #1 RB in dynasty because I do think he will enter the NFL as maybe the most physically talented RB. Omitting AD because he's just too old to really prop up there in dynasty. Of RBs 26 and younger, he's better than anyone IMO.

I haven't yet decided if I'd rank him there or not. He's in my top 3 for sure though.

I agree with this 100%. If Gurley looks like a quality starter right out of the gates, there are few (if any) RBs I would trade him for straight up next offseason.

Correct. But until then, wow, would be insanity to rank him #1.

Why pay #1 pricing for him now when you can pay #1 pricing for him once you are 100x more confident he will actually be good.

Because in some leagues you may never get that opportunity again, not when all doubt has been erased.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We have a sample size of 1 year with Bell producing elite numbers. Followed by injury and a suspension. I'm just saying, let's not fall all over ourselves in assuming what we saw in 2014, which was obviously really good, albeit boosted by an insane reception rate (80+), will be repeated. Ever. He was well regarded out of college, but no scout, no team thought of him as an elite talent. His summer 2014 fantasy rankings reflected this. I'm not going to pass on Gurley, an elite talent in dynasty, over a guy who has all the signs that he's getting an artificial bump in ratings from a huge outlier year in production.

That logic would have worked really poorly with guys like Arian Foster and Priest Holmes.

But would have fit well for Chris Johnson, DeAngelo Williams, Maurice Jones-Drew.

Ultimately, this isn't a logic experiment. You can drum up all the logistical regressions you want, but at the end of the day, I'm just saying my gut is that Bell regresses due to numerous factors and that Gurley's talent is superior and will carry him through to a better dynasty career, starting pretty early, in fact. If you disagree, that's perfectly understandable. You probably have the masses on your side.

If you take Gurley at pick 1 and his career mimics Chris Johnson or MJD, then you should feel pretty good about it

You mean Bell? Taking him #1 over Gurley, and his career mimics MJD ? No, I wouldn't feel good about that, not at all. Especially not if Gurley is the next AP.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm very tempted to put Gurley as the #1 RB in dynasty because I do think he will enter the NFL as maybe the most physically talented RB. Omitting AD because he's just too old to really prop up there in dynasty. Of RBs 26 and younger, he's better than anyone IMO.

I haven't yet decided if I'd rank him there or not. He's in my top 3 for sure though.

I agree with this 100%. If Gurley looks like a quality starter right out of the gates, there are few (if any) RBs I would trade him for straight up next offseason.

Correct. But until then, wow, would be insanity to rank him #1.

Why pay #1 pricing for him now when you can pay #1 pricing for him once you are 100x more confident he will actually be good.

Because in some leagues you may never get that opportunity again, not when all doubt has been erased.

If you wanna pay the ROOKIE #1 pick price, fine.

Top 3 overall dynasty player price?? Now??? No, pay that IF he actually becomes that.

Do you pay 100 dollars for a stock when it is at 25 cause you are confident it will get to 100?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You mean Bell? Taking him #1 over Gurley, and his career mimics MJD ? No, I wouldn't feel good about that, not at all. Especially not if Gurley is the next AP.

I guess I wouldnt feel good if I drafted Gurley instead of trading him for Latavius Murray, to have Murray be the next AP while Gurley was only the next MJD.

That kinda logic works 100 different ways.

If you could guarantee me Gurlye's career would mimic CJ2K or MJD, I would happily take him at 1.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is anyone concerned that chubb balled just as hard as gurley? That gurley's production might be more representative of situation than talent? Or is chubb just going to be the next big thing?

That's why you watch him play and his game cut ups and not just look at the production. When you watch him, you see the reasons why he's getting so much hype. Besides, Chubb is going to be a very good pro as well.

Edited by Dr. Octopus

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm very tempted to put Gurley as the #1 RB in dynasty because I do think he will enter the NFL as maybe the most physically talented RB. Omitting AD because he's just too old to really prop up there in dynasty. Of RBs 26 and younger, he's better than anyone IMO.

I haven't yet decided if I'd rank him there or not. He's in my top 3 for sure though.

I agree with this 100%. If Gurley looks like a quality starter right out of the gates, there are few (if any) RBs I would trade him for straight up next offseason.

Correct. But until then, wow, would be insanity to rank him #1.

Why pay #1 pricing for him now when you can pay #1 pricing for him once you are 100x more confident he will actually be good.

Because in some leagues you may never get that opportunity again, not when all doubt has been erased.

If you wanna pay the ROOKIE #1 pick price, fine.

Top 3 overall dynasty player price?? Now??? No, pay that IF he actually becomes that.

Do you pay 100 dollars for a stock when it is at 25 cause you are confident it will get to 100?

Fantasy football is nothing like the stock market, except for the fact that perception and performance of assets fluctuate. Otherwise, it's a terrible analogy. You assume I can find a seller for that stock at $25 and that I can be guaranteed to get him at that price. Of course, if I can trade out of the #1 spot and still get Gurley, I would, and I will.

But, at the end of the day, assuming I can't make a trade, I'm not wedded to groupthink, and I'll pay $100 for a stock if I am confident that it will be worth $100 or more in the future and pay dividends over many years, as opposed to buying a stock for $100 and being virtually certain that it will decline in value, starting this year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Rotoworld:

NFL Network's Ian Rapoport mentions the Jaguars, Texans, and Dolphins as potential landing spots for Georgia RB Todd Gurley.

Note that all of the teams named by RapSheet select in the top half of the first round. On the board at No. 3 overall, the Jags would presumably target Gurley in a trade down.

Coming off November ACL surgery, Gurley could be "eased in" behind Arian Foster and Lamar Miller in Houston and Miami, respectively.

Related: Texans, Jaguars, Dolphins

Source: Ian Rapoport on Twitter

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Fantasy football is nothing like the stock market, except for the fact that perception and performance of assets fluctuate. Otherwise, it's a terrible analogy. You assume I can find a seller for that stock at $25 and that I can be guaranteed to get him at that price. Of course, if I can trade out of the #1 spot and still get Gurley, I would, and I will.

But, at the end of the day, assuming I can't make a trade, I'm not wedded to groupthink, and I'll pay $100 for a stock if I am confident that it will be worth $100 or more in the future and pay dividends over many years, as opposed to buying a stock for $100 and being virtually certain that it will decline in value, starting this year.

It's the best analogy there is for fantasy football player values.

If you have a better one, by all means........................share. Maybe the housing market? GI Joes? Garbage Pale Kid collectible cards??

It doesnt matter what you actually have to give for Gurley right now. If it is top 5 overall dynasty prices, guess what, just pass. If you tie yourself to "having to have him or any other player no matter the cost", that just isn't gonna work out for you longterm.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Fantasy football is nothing like the stock market, except for the fact that perception and performance of assets fluctuate. Otherwise, it's a terrible analogy. You assume I can find a seller for that stock at $25 and that I can be guaranteed to get him at that price. Of course, if I can trade out of the #1 spot and still get Gurley, I would, and I will.

But, at the end of the day, assuming I can't make a trade, I'm not wedded to groupthink, and I'll pay $100 for a stock if I am confident that it will be worth $100 or more in the future and pay dividends over many years, as opposed to buying a stock for $100 and being virtually certain that it will decline in value, starting this year.

It's the best analogy there is for fantasy football player values.

If you have a better one, by all means........................share. Maybe the housing market? GI Joes? Garbage Pale Kid collectible cards??

It doesnt matter what you actually have to give for Gurley right now. If it is top 5 overall dynasty prices, guess what, just pass. If you tie yourself to "having to have him or any other player no matter the cost", that just isn't gonna work out for you longterm.

I never said this approach works long term or generalizes to all situations. Broadly, I am going to take the better player period. For the purposes of this discussion, I'm referring to the specific comparison between Gurley and Bell.

Edited by Proust Loves Cake

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I never said this approach works long term or generalizes to all situations. Broadly, I am going to take the better player period. For the purposes of this discussion, I'm referring to the specific comparison between Gurley and Bell.

The better player is pretty obviously Bell.

If you think Gurley is a better talent so be it. Talent rather clearly does not always translate to being a good player.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I never said this approach works long term or generalizes to all situations. Broadly, I am going to take the better player period. For the purposes of this discussion, I'm referring to the specific comparison between Gurley and Bell.

The better player is pretty obviously Bell.

If you think Gurley is a better talent so be it. Talent rather clearly does not always translate to being a good player.

Based on scout ratings, the better player is not pretty obviously Bell, if we're talking about talent. Gurley consistently has received much higher ratings than Bell. The better talent is pretty obviously Gurley.

To clean this up a bit, I think we're both on the same page in saying we want the most productive player. It's sub-optimal to have a talented guy mired in an bad situation on a bad team. On the other extreme, it does no good to have a guy who stinks playing in a favorable situation. That said, history is pretty clear that the former is far superior to the latter. Think of guys like OJ, Dickerson, Sanders, even Faulk and AP on various iterations of the Colts and Vikings, respectively. Those guys were on bad teams, sometimes terrible teams, and produced at elite levels because their talents represented a variable that was independent of what the team or scheme around them supported.

Bell is not that guy. He's just not. He is going to need 80 receptions each season to maintain top-5 production, let alone enjoy a year like he had in 2014. And, if you want to bet on that surviving over the long haul, that's lost money. He is a good and decent running back, but not a top-5 talent.

Plug Gurley in anywhere, he is going to be a dynasty monster for years to come.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I never said this approach works long term or generalizes to all situations. Broadly, I am going to take the better player period. For the purposes of this discussion, I'm referring to the specific comparison between Gurley and Bell.

The better player is pretty obviously Bell.

If you think Gurley is a better talent so be it. Talent rather clearly does not always translate to being a good player.

Based on scout ratings, the better player is not pretty obviously Bell, if we're talking about talent. Gurley consistently has received much higher ratings than Bell. The better talent is pretty obviously Gurley.

To clean this up a bit, I think we're both on the same page in saying we want the most productive player. It's sub-optimal to have a talented guy mired in an bad situation on a bad team. On the other extreme, it does no good to have a guy who stinks playing in a favorable situation. That said, history is pretty clear that the former is far superior to the latter. Think of guys like OJ, Dickerson, Sanders, even Faulk and AP on various iterations of the Colts and Vikings, respectively. Those guys were on bad teams, sometimes terrible teams, and produced at elite levels because their talents represented a variable that was independent of what the team or scheme around them supported.

Bell is not that guy. He's just not. He is going to need 80 receptions each season to maintain top-5 production, let alone enjoy a year like he had in 2014. And, if you want to bet on that surviving over the long haul, that's lost money. He is a good and decent running back, but not a top-5 talent.

Plug Gurley in anywhere, he is going to be a dynasty monster for years to come.

I pretty clearly said talent does not always translate to being a good player because, well, it is proven to be so.

You would be drafting Gurley in hopes that he can be Bell, assuming all the risk in doing so.

Edited by ghostguy123

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Talent may not always translate in situation, but it's usually a good bet.

Personally, I'm in the camp that thinks Gurley is more talented than Bell or any RB 27 or under. I also think Bell likely had a career year. That's not saying he doesn't have several good years ahead. Yeah, the reception numbers just don't seem sustainable.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I never said this approach works long term or generalizes to all situations. Broadly, I am going to take the better player period. For the purposes of this discussion, I'm referring to the specific comparison between Gurley and Bell.

The better player is pretty obviously Bell.

If you think Gurley is a better talent so be it. Talent rather clearly does not always translate to being a good player.

Based on scout ratings, the better player is not pretty obviously Bell, if we're talking about talent. Gurley consistently has received much higher ratings than Bell. The better talent is pretty obviously Gurley.

To clean this up a bit, I think we're both on the same page in saying we want the most productive player. It's sub-optimal to have a talented guy mired in an bad situation on a bad team. On the other extreme, it does no good to have a guy who stinks playing in a favorable situation. That said, history is pretty clear that the former is far superior to the latter. Think of guys like OJ, Dickerson, Sanders, even Faulk and AP on various iterations of the Colts and Vikings, respectively. Those guys were on bad teams, sometimes terrible teams, and produced at elite levels because their talents represented a variable that was independent of what the team or scheme around them supported.

Bell is not that guy. He's just not. He is going to need 80 receptions each season to maintain top-5 production, let alone enjoy a year like he had in 2014. And, if you want to bet on that surviving over the long haul, that's lost money. He is a good and decent running back, but not a top-5 talent.

Plug Gurley in anywhere, he is going to be a dynasty monster for years to come.

I pretty clearly said talent does not always translate to being a good player because, well, it is proven to be so.

You would be drafting Gurley in hopes that he can be Bell, assuming all the risk in doing so.

No, I am not expecting Gurley will equal or "be" Bell. I think I've made that pretty clear.

But, hey, if you're in the business of grabbing lesser players with the assumption that a good situation will always be a good situation and support that lesser talent, more power to you. PM me at the end of 2016 and update me on how that's working out for you with Bell.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Based on scout ratings, the better player is not pretty obviously Bell, if we're talking about talent. Gurley consistently has received much higher ratings than Bell.

:wall:

Le'Veon Bell's scouting ratings are about as relevant as Tom Brady's or Antonio Brown's at this point. It's very clear that they are outdated. Bell dropped the weight and is a totally different guy now. Everyone on this board noticed it and, for the 10th time, vaulted him up their dynasty rankings BEFORE he put up elite production. He has a burst and lateral agility that he never showed as a prospect. If he re-tested at the combine now he would perform much better.

And none of that accounts for how overlooked his vision and receiving ability are, much like we can't just ignore how much Tom Brady's knowledge of the game and ability to read the field was overlooked as a prospect.

He is going to need 80 receptions each season to maintain top-5 production

This is a ridiculous statement. He had 80 receptions last year and outscored RB5 by ONE HUNDRED fantasy points. You could cut his reception total in half and he'd still be comfortably in the top 5. I agree that his receiving numbers will likely regress to the mean some, but he has to lose a LOT of receptions to drop out of the top 5. His rushing numbers were in no way unsustainable. If he can maintain that you could literally cut his receiving numbers all the way down to 40 catches for 400 yards and he'd still be in the top 5, comfortably.

But, hey, if you're in the business of grabbing lesser players with the assumption that a good situation will always be a good situation and support that lesser talent, more power to you.

You're obsessed with trying to create an argument that's not there. People aren't arguing that situation > talent. They're arguing that you're vastly underrating Bell's talent. Maybe not quite as talented as Gurley but close enough that his other advantages (vision, receiving ability, past production) make up the difference.

You're inventing a narrative that isn't there. The reality is that people were blown away with Bell's talent last year, not his production. Again, right out of the gates last year people were WOWing their eyes out watching him run, before the production came along to match. Yet you're content to ignore that and have decided that since he wasn't quick and agile 5 years ago at Michigan State he must not be quick and agile now, just like you must have assumed that since Tom Brady was considered to have an extremely weak arm as a prospect he must have had an extremely weak arm for his entire NFL career.

Fat plodder Le'Veon Bell is as dead and gone as noodle armed Tom Brady or slow cutting Antonio Brown. He dropped the weight and got in shape and his burst now gets him through the holes that his elite vision have always seen but that his gut slowed him down too much to get through in time.

Stop arguing like this is simply some matter of uber talent vs. average guy in a great situation because the only one you're arguing with about that is yourself.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.