Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
tdmills

[Dynasty] Todd Gurley

Recommended Posts

Rotoworld:

The Miami Herald reports Georgia RB Todd Gurley (ACL surgery) is unlikely to play in the first month of the season, "conservatively."

"Several people I speak with are saying you pick him for the long-term rather than the first month of his rookie season," writes reporter Armando Salguero. Gurley may begin his rookie year on the reserve/PUP list, which would cost him the first six games. Gurley had his ACL reconstructed last November.
Apr 30 - 6:39 PM

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

True. But do you think Bell is a "knucklehead"???

No, but half a year ago I wouldn't have thought he was a guy that would get busted the 1st time. It just concerns me because the penalties are steep now. If we have a scenario where Bell gets into trouble again (even if its a Josh Gordon "hey I wasn't doing anything wrong" story), he's on thin ice.

Is he though? And I was under the impression the penalties were actually getting softer than they had been.

Besides, he was busted for DUi right? So he is being suspended for the conduct policy, not the substance abuse policy.

He admitted he smoke weed but never had a positive test. Correct me if I am wrong on that.

He failed a test and blamed it on second hand marijuana smoke. I think he failed a test in college too. Someone on this board had a funny story about waiting in line at this store with about 5 other people... guy up at the counter is buying every kind of blunt wrap they have and checking them out. Eventually gets the ones he wants, walks out of the store into Josh Gordon's camouflage painted Porsche:

https://www.google.com/search?q=josh+gordon+porsche&espv=2&biw=1280&bih=939&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ei=XKlCVb-gFsG0oQSWwYDYDg&ved=0CAcQ_AUoAg

Bell, not gordon

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Rotoworld:

ESPN's Todd McShay said three teams in the top-10 are considering Georgia RB Todd Gurley.

Gurley's stock keeps rising. Clearly teams aren't concerned about his bill of health after missing the second half of last season with a torn ACL. Our own Josh Norris called Gurley a "foundation piece" and at least three teams in the top-10 share that opinion. The 20-year-old makes a ton of sense for the halfback-starved Falcons at pick No. 8.
Apr 30 - 6:19 PM

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Rotoworld:

The Miami Herald reports Georgia RB Todd Gurley is "legitimately a consideration" for the Dolphins at No. 14 overall.

"This is for real," were the words of reporter Armando Salguero. Along with Louisville WR DeVante Parker and UCF WR Breshad Perriman, Salguero considers Gurley one of the Dolphins' three most likely picks. It's quite possible Gurley doesn't make it to No. 14.
Related: Dolphins
Apr 30 - 6:04 PM

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Rotoworld:

NBC Washington's Dianna Marie Russini reports the 49ers "might be the surprise team" for Georgia RB Todd Gurley.

The 49ers might have to leapfrog the Dolphins at No. 14. San Francisco doesn't select until No. 15. The Niners' interest in Gurley may indicate a lack of confidence in Carlos Hyde, who is coming off a disappointing rookie season behind Frank Gore. The 49ers also signed Reggie Bush this offseason.
Related: 49ers
Apr 30 - 7:38 PM

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Mayock just illustrated why the Gurley runs high shtick is terrible.

Gets skinny and LOW through the hole. Opens up in the open field.

A big RB with that ability to get small is a rare and beautiful thing.

Edited by jurb26

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Mason owner, but at least Gurley will be on my home town team next year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nice fit. Can't wait to see him rumble on that track.

For one year? What does LA look like?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Mason owner, but at least Gurley will be on my home town team next year.

Destined (ACL permitting) to be the Rams best RB since Faulk and Dickerson.

I wouldn't rush him this year, give him a better chance to make a full recovery.

Instantly the Rams most talented offensive player.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I would have preferred that he got drafted by SD but the Rams is not a horrible spot.

T

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Rotoworld:

Coach Jeff Fisher confirmed the Rams will not rush No. 10 overall pick Todd Gurley (ACL surgery).

Gurley sustained a clean tear of his ACL last November. "We may well be a little on the conservative side. But this is the running back of our future. It makes no sense to subject him to or put him in a bad situation sooner than we have to," Fisher said. Earlier reports had Gurley missing at least the first month.

Source: St Louis Post-Dispatch

Edited by Faust

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I would have preferred that he got drafted by SD but the Rams is not a horrible spot.

T

It's an okay spot but imo his value dropped just a little from what it was before the draft. Still the 1.01 rookie pick in most leagues.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gurley left Georgia second to Herschel Walker in rushing yards, total yards and rushing TDs. He amassed that in basically two and a half seasons, 30 games (510-3,285-36 rushing)

Walker was far more of a workhorse, also did his damage in three seasons, 33 games (994-5,259-49)

Some observations:

1) Gurley only carried about half as much as Walker, so enters the league without as much of that kind of mileage and tread taken off the tire.

2) Walker's Y/C was a career 5.3, Gurley's more than a full yard better at 6.4.

3) Gurley scored TDs at a more prolific rate or clip, on a percentage per carry basis (if he had as high volume a workload, and could have held up [[which is in doubt, obviously]], just on a purely proration basis, would have had nearly 50% more rushing TDs - that is a significant amount of separation). Gurley's track background (on the American junior national team, competed in Europe, seventh fastest time in Georgia U history) parallels the freakish Walker. He won the GA state championships in the shot put (!!!)*, 100 and 220 yard dashes and anchored his winning mile relay team as a prep. In college, he was a two time All American, was on an SEC champion 4 X 100 m. relay squad, had a personal best 10.10 100 m., and also recorded a then ('83) world record 55 m. time of 6.11 seconds. He was later an Olympic bobsledder, and commanded one of the biggest and most impactful trades in NFL history.

* Interestingly, another RB, former Chief Christian "Nigerian Nightmare" Okoye, reportedly won his countries NATIONAL championships in the 100 and shot put, which HAS to be an unusual combo (imagine Usain Bolt winning the Jamaican shot put, or their shot put champ besting him in the 100 m., for perspective). Walker and Okoye were FREAKS with capital letters.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gurley left Georgia second to Herschel Walker in rushing yards, total yards and rushing TDs. He amassed that in basically two and a half seasons, 30 games (510-3,285-36 rushing)

Walker was far more of a workhorse, also did his damage in three seasons, 33 games (994-5,259-49)

Some observations:

1) Gurley only carried about half as much as Walker, so enters the league without as much of that kind of mileage and tread taken off the tire.

2) Walker's Y/C was a career 5.3, Gurley's more than a full yard better at 6.4.

3) Gurley scored TDs at a more prolific rate or clip, on a percentage per carry basis (if he had as high volume a workload, and could have held up [[which is in doubt, obviously]], just on a purely proration basis, would have had nearly 50% more rushing TDs - that is a significant amount of separation). Gurley's track background (on the American junior national team, competed in Europe, seventh fastest time in Georgia U history) parallels the freakish Walker. He won the GA state championships in the shot put (!!!)*, 100 and 220 yard dashes and anchored his winning mile relay team as a prep. In college, he was a two time All American, was on an SEC champion 4 X 100 m. relay squad, had a personal best 10.10 100 m., and also recorded a then ('83) world record 55 m. time of 6.11 seconds. He was later an Olympic bobsledder, and commanded one of the biggest and most impactful trades in NFL history.

* Interestingly, another RB, former Chief Christian "Nigerian Nightmare" Okoye, reportedly won his countries NATIONAL championships in the 100 and shot put, which HAS to be an unusual combo (imagine Usain Bolt winning the Jamaican shot put, or their shot put champ besting him in the 100 m., for perspective). Walker and Okoye were FREAKS with capital letters.

Herschel Walker was also the valedictorian of his high school class.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I would have preferred that he got drafted by SD but the Rams is not a horrible spot.

T

It's an okay spot but imo his value dropped just a little from what it was before the draft. Still the 1.01 rookie pick in most leagues.

In PPR I think it's a mistake not to take Cooper.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The fact that the NFL (at least St. Louis and probably others) thought enough of Gurley to have him picked 10th overall (despite the ACL and the recent trend of no RBs in the first round) means more to me than where he landed. In any case, St. Louis is a fine landing spot imo.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just drafted Gurley 1.02. If he doesn't "pan" out, I will be ready to accept it. Hopefully, all of the people in here comparing him to Trent Richardson will have the sack to admit they were wrong as well. Very excited to watch him play. His landing spot is going to turn out to be MUCH BETTER than first imagined. RBBC will NOT be a problem once he hits the field. If it isn't clear to you that Gurley is the future bell cow in St. Louis, you are simply in denial. The evidence is overwhelming.

Edited by georg013

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just drafted Gurley 1.02. If he doesn't "pan" out, I will be ready to accept it. Hopefully, all of the people in here comparing him to Trent Richardson will have the sack to admit they were wrong as well. Very excited to watch him play. His landing spot is going to turn out to be MUCH BETTER than first imagined. RBBC will NOT be a problem once he hits the field. If it isn't clear to you that Gurley is the future bell cow in St. Louis, you are simply in denial. The evidence is overwhelming.

I don't disagree with anything you just said, but I still love Gordon and am on the fence with those two.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just drafted Gurley 1.02. If he doesn't "pan" out, I will be ready to accept it. Hopefully, all of the people in here comparing him to Trent Richardson will have the sack to admit they were wrong as well. Very excited to watch him play. His landing spot is going to turn out to be MUCH BETTER than first imagined. RBBC will NOT be a problem once he hits the field. If it isn't clear to you that Gurley is the future bell cow in St. Louis, you are simply in denial. The evidence is overwhelming.

The whole thing has a very Stewart/Deangello vibe to me except Stewart has more talent. What reminds me of Richardson is I don't see that quick twitch, make defenders miss ability. I see him running through huge holes and his backup rb putting up just as good or better stats then he did. I think he's a good solid back but I think he's a bit overrated. And Mason is a lot better than people are giving him credit for, he's a good player and won't be sitting on the bench, it'll be a rbbc imo. Of course most are nowadays so it's not horrible.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just drafted Gurley 1.02. If he doesn't "pan" out, I will be ready to accept it. Hopefully, all of the people in here comparing him to Trent Richardson will have the sack to admit they were wrong as well. Very excited to watch him play. His landing spot is going to turn out to be MUCH BETTER than first imagined. RBBC will NOT be a problem once he hits the field. If it isn't clear to you that Gurley is the future bell cow in St. Louis, you are simply in denial. The evidence is overwhelming.

The whole thing has a very Stewart/Deangello vibe to me except Stewart has more talent. What reminds me of Richardson is I don't see that quick twitch, make defenders miss ability. I see him running through huge holes and his backup rb putting up just as good or better stats then he did. I think he's a good solid back but I think he's a bit overrated. And Mason is a lot better than people are giving him credit for, he's a good player and won't be sitting on the bench, it'll be a rbbc imo. Of course most are nowadays so it's not horrible.

So you are basically choosing to ignore what the head coach and organization have been saying since they grabbed him at the ten spot OR you are just trying to get a rise out of Gurley owners. Lol.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just drafted Gurley 1.02. If he doesn't "pan" out, I will be ready to accept it. Hopefully, all of the people in here comparing him to Trent Richardson will have the sack to admit they were wrong as well. Very excited to watch him play. His landing spot is going to turn out to be MUCH BETTER than first imagined. RBBC will NOT be a problem once he hits the field. If it isn't clear to you that Gurley is the future bell cow in St. Louis, you are simply in denial. The evidence is overwhelming.

The whole thing has a very Stewart/Deangello vibe to me except Stewart has more talent. What reminds me of Richardson is I don't see that quick twitch, make defenders miss ability. I see him running through huge holes and his backup rb putting up just as good or better stats then he did. I think he's a good solid back but I think he's a bit overrated. And Mason is a lot better than people are giving him credit for, he's a good player and won't be sitting on the bench, it'll be a rbbc imo. Of course most are nowadays so it's not horrible.

The only people who think Mason might be a roadblock to Gurley being a bellcow are Mason owners. Mason wasn't even that good last year, his entire appeal going into this offseason was that he was "good enough", with no competition, and no way would the Rams use a premium draft choice on a RB with all their other needs.

Well, they did just that. And then they spent the rest of their draft taking shots on a bunch of OL. They put their money where there mouth is, which shows how they value Gurley. Fisher loves having a bellcow RB. He made Chris Johnson, all 200 lbs of him, a bellcow eventually minus GL duties when White was still pretty good. Gurley is prototypical, he'll get a ton of touches.

Also, Chubb matching Gurley's production once he took over is because he too is a beast prospect. Maybe even better.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So Gurley over Bell still eh?

No ####### way. Never woulda been anyway no matter where he went.

The only chance Gurley had of competing with Bell for dynasty's top RB was Dallas. And even then there would be plenty of skeptics.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So Gurley over Bell still eh?

No ####### way. Never woulda been anyway no matter where he went.

The only chance Gurley had of competing with Bell for dynasty's top RB was Dallas. And even then there would be plenty of skeptics.

I don't think that's true, I think Gurley in Dallas right now would be getting tons of hype as the #1 dynasty RB. Bell is a beast, Bell is young, but he's not viewed as having the pedigree that Gurley has (people would say Gurley only fell to Dallas due to his ACL) AND he has substance abuse concerns that Gurley doesn't have. And on top of all that, dynasty owners also get distracted by the new shiny toy. Gurley in Dallas would be the #1 dynasty RB already.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So Gurley over Bell still eh?

No ####### way. Never woulda been anyway no matter where he went.

In redraft, Bell. I said that before.

But, if you have the attention span to think in terms of 2016 beyond, the guy to get is Gurley, not Bell.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Michael Silver interviewed Fisher (maybe ESPN coverage, not sure if day two or three?). He gave props to the position group (as he should), but when he talked about Gurley, his eyes lit up, and he talked about how he was special, and was a once-per-decade RB. He didn't say Mason was special. Even last year, he never said anything like that about Mason.

People can think what they want, and are welcome to their opinion, but there is no question Fisher sees Gurley very differently than Mason, that the intention is for him to a become a franchise, feature, bellcow back. They are saying he will be brought along slowly, they want to be patient and not rush him into a setback or reinjury. So he is a much better dynasty than redraft play. My main interest is dynasty.

Starting in 2016, if healthy, I don't see Gurley splitting carries with Mason. If he averages something like 15-20 carries, and Mason 8-12, and that is a RBBC, than it is one in which Gurley's workload could be indistinguishable from a feature RB, and Mason more like that of a complementary, lesser RBBC role.

If Gurley doesn't become a star and have stats commensurate with that, it won't be because of workload or Tre Mason got in his way. He looks like the best RB since Peterson to me. Not because I read it somewhere, or heard Kiper say it, or because of groupthink. But because that is what I think based on what I see.

* Another concern in the thread is OL. But again, that is probably a bigger concern in redraft than dynasty. There might be better reasons to downgrade him in redraft, like rehabbing a torn ACL. But in dynasty, they could have another year's worth of free agency and another draft.

The OL is very untested. Robinson has about a dozen starts, and is very raw in pass pro. But as a run blocker, he was drafted 1.2 overall, helped Mason break some of Bo Jackson's record at Auburn, is fast and light on his feet for a such a huge Kodiak Bear-sized human, and has a lot of potential with a few years in the league (which he'll have by 2016). Saffold was an OK OT that played even better and pretty well at guard in 2013, leading them to re-sign him (after OAK backed out on the shoulder failing their physical grounds). They lost 60% of their OL. Barrett Jones could be the starting center, a fourth rounder from 2013 who played every position on the line at Alabama, and won the Outland Trophy. He entered the league with a foot injury, they wanted him to physically mature and develop, get bigger and stronger and they had Wells the last three years (he was hurt a lot in '12 and '13, but not '14). He reportedly is bigger and stronger, if healthy, he reportedly has impressive football smarts. Jones could possibly play guard, as could other prospective centers, 2014 late rounder Demetrius Rhaney, and re-signed vet Barnes.

That leaves one guard opening (Saffold played LG last year, but may be more comfortable and better at RG) and RT (Fisher has already said Robinson will be the LT). Reynolds is a free agent swing tackle with multi-positional versatilty at G as well as OT, who played better at the former in ATL in 2013 than at the latter in DET last year. He has connections with GM Snead and the Rams OL position coach from ATL. Joe Barksdale could be re-signed, but that seems increasingly unlikely. They reportedly have interest in former Falcon G Blalock, no idea if it is mutual.

Than there is a cast of thousands from the draft. Second rounder Havenstein was called by Mayock a third round grade that should have moved up somewhat based on his Senior Bowl. Besides Melvin Gordon, he was the only other invitee from Wisconsin, after a school record 320 rushing yards per game in 2014. He will probably be the starting RT, though last year, Robinson didn't start for the first month. Third rounder Jamon Brown (played OT at Louisville) could be the early favorite to start at guard opposite Saffold, but again, maybe not immediately. They are both powerful run blockers. They also took a fourth round OL that has played every position but center, I think, and was a teammate of Scherff at Iowa. The Rams like OL with versatility in general, and converting OTs to G, specifically (a future OL of Robinson - Brown - Jones - Saffold - Havenstein would be comprised of 5 OTs [[Jones played OT/G/C for Alabama]], sub in OT/G Reynolds at RT or guard, and it is still 5 OTs). He played RT last year, and could remain there, or be converted to G and shunted to the inside, possibly depending on Brown and the sixth round G from Fresno St. Three of the four rookies are at least 6'6" (Brown is the "short" one at 6'4"), and have been described by the media as road grading maulers.

They may only start one rookie on the OL this year, or at least to begin the season. Whether one or two, they are going to have some questions about pass pro until they answer them. The Rams have a two TE base set, and Lance Kendrick was re-signed (I think in the top 5 highest paid Rams?), he is appreciated for his versatilty and blocking ability, and could help Havenstein in pass pro. But both Havenstein and Brown could be functional firing out as run blockers. Brown might not have the feet, lateral agility and movement skills to play OT in the NFL, but at G, in a phone booth, short spaces and areas, maybe he can play to his strengths better.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Highest YPC of SEC backs over 200 lbs.(min. 1400 career yards):

        Player 	        From 	To 	School 	        Att 	Yds 	Avg 	TD2 	Felix Jones 	2005 	2007 	Arkansas 	386 	2956 	7.7 	203 	Nick Chubb 	2014 	2014 	Georgia 	219 	1547 	7.1 	144 	Eddie Lacy 	2010 	2012 	Alabama 	355 	2402 	6.8 	307 	Todd Gurley 	2012 	2014 	Georgia 	497 	3210 	6.5 	3513 	Jeremy Hill 	2012 	2013 	LSU     	331 	2013 	6.1 	2615 	Ciatrick Fason 	2002 	2004 	Florida 	315 	1877 	6.0 	1418 	DarrenMcFadden 	2005 	2007 	Arkansas 	785 	4590 	5.8 	4120 	T.Richardson 	2009 	2011 	Alabama 	540 	3130 	5.8 	3521 	T.J. Yeldon 	2012 	2014 	Alabama 	576 	3322 	5.8 	3722 	Vick Ballard 	2010 	2011 	Miss. State 	379 	2157 	5.7 	2923 	Mark Ingram 	2008 	2010 	Alabama 	572 	3261 	5.7 	42 	1726 	Tre Mason 	2011 	2013 	Auburn 	        510 	2879 	5.6 	30

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So Gurley over Bell still eh?

No ####### way. Never woulda been anyway no matter where he went.

In redraft, Bell. I said that before.

But, if you have the attention span to think in terms of 2016 beyond, the guy to get is Gurley, not Bell.

Speaking of attention span, fine. If you think Gurley will be the #1 Rb next year at this time, then fine. I won't argue against that cause Gurley is a stud talent. I never did argue against that.

However, if you have to pay Bell straight up to get Gurley right now that would be foolish.

You are paying the perceived 2016 Gurley price NOW instead of waiting to see if he is even going to be worth that. If he is, great, pay that top 5 overall player price next year, not NOW.

PLus you would be screwing yourself over for this year. The chances Gurley puts together a top end 2nd half of the season are pretty slim IMO.

The stock analogy from before was pretty darn accurate (even though you dont agree for some weird reason) regarding paying those prices for Gurley NOW.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So Gurley over Bell still eh?

No ####### way. Never woulda been anyway no matter where he went.

In redraft, Bell. I said that before.

But, if you have the attention span to think in terms of 2016 beyond, the guy to get is Gurley, not Bell.

Speaking of attention span, fine. If you think Gurley will be the #1 Rb next year at this time, then fine. I won't argue against that cause Gurley is a stud talent. I never did argue against that.

However, if you have to pay Bell straight up to get Gurley right now that would be foolish.

You are paying the perceived 2016 Gurley price NOW instead of waiting to see if he is even going to be worth that. If he is, great, pay that top 5 overall player price next year, not NOW.

PLus you would be screwing yourself over for this year. The chances Gurley puts together a top end 2nd half of the season are pretty slim IMO.

The stock analogy from before was pretty darn accurate (even though you dont agree for some weird reason) regarding paying those prices for Gurley NOW.

I dunno, I could see Gurley being a RB odell beckham and having a fine run for patient fantasy owners. Plus Bell is missing games too Edited by fredsavage

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I dunno, I could see Gurley being a RB odell beckham and having a fine run for patient fantasy owners. Plus Bell is missing games too

I don't disagree.

As I said though, several times now, why on Earth would you pay that kind of price for him NOW?? If he costs top 5 overall player value, simply do NOT trade for him then (or if in a startup do not draft him that high).

He should not cost that much right now, and if he does, oh well. If he looks like that kind of guy at this time next year, then go after him for that price. If at that time he costs way more than he should, then again, oh well.

I simply can never ever bring myself to pay the value of what I think a player WILL be worth when I can just wait to see if he ends up being worth that amount and THEN paying it.

If you want him now, great, go get him. Pay his market value. Not way above it.

(also, Gurley is going to miss a lot also, not be himself all year most likely)

Edited by ghostguy123

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I had no questions about Gurley (would have ranked him just behind Bell) before he tore his ACL. Maybe it's bad memories of McGahee, who Gurley reminds me of, but I'm concerned he won't be the player he was before the injury. Despite how bad it looked, McGahee only tore his ACL like Gurley and didn't need surgery on his other ligaments. I expect Gurley to do well but using the 1.1 on him seems risky if he doesn't become an elite back and stay healthy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I had no questions about Gurley (would have ranked him just behind Bell) before he tore his ACL. Maybe it's bad memories of McGahee, who Gurley reminds me of, but I'm concerned he won't be the player he was before the injury. Despite how bad it looked, McGahee only tore his ACL like Gurley and didn't need surgery on his other ligaments. I expect Gurley to do well but using the 1.1 on him seems risky if he doesn't become an elite back and stay healthy.

1.1 rookie pick is fine with me. I am using pick 1 on him in a league (granted I also have picks 2,3,4,6). But I would take him at 1.

Startup draft?? Good lord no.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Maybe it's different in a scenario where you're trying to trade to get Gurley, but I'm not talking about that. To this point, I've framed the discussion more in terms of scenarios where one already owns a dynasty pick high enough where they can select either Bell or Gurley. Clearly, if I can trade down I will, but unlike a stock market environment where you can pretty much buy and sell whatever flavor you want at any time, the same can't be said for trading out of a pick. First, you can't be guaranteed to get FMV from another owner. Second, you can't be guaranteed of getting the one commodity you want (which you can always do with stocks). I might trade out of a high position and get scooped on the Gurley by a guy who's now ahead of me. Stocks don't function like this. At all.

So, the point is, if you believe Gurley will be a better dynasty producing running back than Bell, why would you take Bell? Because his perceived value in ADP or in consultation with you is higher? If you trust your own judgment and you can't manipulate a trade in your favor, why go with the guy you think will have a lesser career? That makes no sense.

Edited by Proust Loves Cake

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Michael Silver interviewed Fisher (maybe ESPN coverage, not sure if day two or three?). He gave props to the position group (as he should), but when he talked about Gurley, his eyes lit up, and he talked about how he was special, and was a once-per-decade RB. He didn't say Mason was special. Even last year, he never said anything like that about Mason.

People can think what they want, and are welcome to their opinion, but there is no question Fisher sees Gurley very differently than Mason, that the intention is for him to a become a franchise, feature, bellcow back. They are saying he will be brought along slowly, they want to be patient and not rush him into a setback or reinjury. So he is a much better dynasty than redraft play. My main interest is dynasty.

Starting in 2016, if healthy, I don't see Gurley splitting carries with Mason. If he averages something like 15-20 carries, and Mason 8-12, and that is a RBBC, than it is one in which Gurley's workload could be indistinguishable from a feature RB, and Mason more like that of a complementary, lesser RBBC role.

If Gurley doesn't become a star and have stats commensurate with that, it won't be because of workload or Tre Mason got in his way. He looks like the best RB since Peterson to me. Not because I read it somewhere, or heard Kiper say it, or because of groupthink. But because that is what I think based on what I see.

* Another concern in the thread is OL. But again, that is probably a bigger concern in redraft than dynasty. There might be better reasons to downgrade him in redraft, like rehabbing a torn ACL. But in dynasty, they could have another year's worth of free agency and another draft.

The OL is very untested. Robinson has about a dozen starts, and is very raw in pass pro. But as a run blocker, he was drafted 1.2 overall, helped Mason break some of Bo Jackson's record at Auburn, is fast and light on his feet for a such a huge Kodiak Bear-sized human, and has a lot of potential with a few years in the league (which he'll have by 2016). Saffold was an OK OT that played even better and pretty well at guard in 2013, leading them to re-sign him (after OAK backed out on the shoulder failing their physical grounds). They lost 60% of their OL. Barrett Jones could be the starting center, a fourth rounder from 2013 who played every position on the line at Alabama, and won the Outland Trophy. He entered the league with a foot injury, they wanted him to physically mature and develop, get bigger and stronger and they had Wells the last three years (he was hurt a lot in '12 and '13, but not '14). He reportedly is bigger and stronger, if healthy, he reportedly has impressive football smarts. Jones could possibly play guard, as could other prospective centers, 2014 late rounder Demetrius Rhaney, and re-signed vet Barnes.

That leaves one guard opening (Saffold played LG last year, but may be more comfortable and better at RG) and RT (Fisher has already said Robinson will be the LT). Reynolds is a free agent swing tackle with multi-positional versatilty at G as well as OT, who played better at the former in ATL in 2013 than at the latter in DET last year. He has connections with GM Snead and the Rams OL position coach from ATL. Joe Barksdale could be re-signed, but that seems increasingly unlikely. They reportedly have interest in former Falcon G Blalock, no idea if it is mutual.

Than there is a cast of thousands from the draft. Second rounder Havenstein was called by Mayock a third round grade that should have moved up somewhat based on his Senior Bowl. Besides Melvin Gordon, he was the only other invitee from Wisconsin, after a school record 320 rushing yards per game in 2014. He will probably be the starting RT, though last year, Robinson didn't start for the first month. Third rounder Jamon Brown (played OT at Louisville) could be the early favorite to start at guard oppsite Saffold, but again, maybe not immediately. They are both powerful run blockers. They also took a fourth round OL that has played every position but center, I think, and was a teammate of Scherff at Iowa. The Rams like OL with versatility in general, and converting OTs to G, specifically (a future OL of Robinson - Brown - Jones - Saffold - Havenstein would be comprised of 5 OTs, sub in OT/G Reynolds at RT or guard, and it is still 5 OTs). He played RT last year, and could remain there, or be converted, possibly depending on Brown and the sixth round G from Fresno St. Three of the four rookies are at least 6'6" (Brown is the "short" one at 6'4"), and have been described by the media as road grading maulers.

They may only start one rookie on the OL this year, or at least to begin the season. Whether one or two, they are going to have some questions about pass pro until they answer them. The Rams have a two TE base set, and Lance Kendrick was re-signed (I think in the top 5 highest paid Rams?), he is appreciated for his versatilty and blocking ability, and could help Havenstein in pass pro. But both Havenstein and Brown could be functional firing out as run blockers. Brown might not have the feet, lateral agility and movement skills to play OT in the NFL, but at G, in a phone booth, short spaces and areas, maybe he can play to his strengths better.

To this point exactly, play this game of ff long enough you realize the folly of trying to play the "situation" card for too long. Supporting casts, coordinators and coaches change so much, guys get traded, injuries, so many variables are impossible to predict. Safe to say if Bell enjoys the same supporting cast, the same coaches, the same scheme, doesn't get injured, doesn't get suspended, he is going to enjoy a long and productive fantasy career. For guys like AP, Faulk, Barry, etc, however, you just never had to worry about crap going on around them. They can run behind any line and so long as they got a fair workload and aren't stuck with some moronic coach who philosophically can't wrap his head around feeding his best players the ball, they're going to put up monster production. I can't say for sure that Gurley will be that guy, but he sure looks the part to me in a way that few have (and those few include the likes of those listed above). I'm not concerned about the ACL. It was a clean, uncomplicated tear, the recent reinjury rates are very low, almost negligible, and it's no more a concern to me than Bell or any other back who, by their nature, are vulnerable to a variety of lower extremity injuries.

Situation is important for many players and it can accentuate the production of the elite guys for sure. But, to rely on that to remain a constant is ill-advised.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Maybe it's different in a scenario where you're trying to trade to get Gurley, but I'm not talking about that. To this point, I've framed the discussion more in terms of scenarios where one already owns a dynasty pick high enough where they can select either Bell or Gurley. Clearly, if I can trade down I will, but unlike a stock market environment where you can pretty much buy and sell whatever flavor you want at any time, the same can't be said for trading out of a pick. First, you can't be guaranteed to get FMV from another owner. Second, you can't be guaranteed of getting the one commodity you want (which you can always do with stocks). I might trade out of a high position and get scooped on the Gurley by a guy who's now ahead of me. Stocks don't function like this. At all.

So, the point is, if you believe Gurley will be a better dynasty producing running back than Bell, why would you take Bell? Because his perceived value in ADP or in consultation with you is higher? If you trust your own judgment and you can't manipulate a trade in your favor, why go with the guy you think will have a lesser career? That makes no sense.

If I think TJ Yeldon will have a better career from here on out than Bell, I should take him before Bell in a startup?

What makes no sense is dramatically overpaying/overdrafting for players.

Got to use both personal evals and knowing the market

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Maybe it's different in a scenario where you're trying to trade to get Gurley, but I'm not talking about that. To this point, I've framed the discussion more in terms of scenarios where one already owns a dynasty pick high enough where they can select either Bell or Gurley. Clearly, if I can trade down I will, but unlike a stock market environment where you can pretty much buy and sell whatever flavor you want at any time, the same can't be said for trading out of a pick. First, you can't be guaranteed to get FMV from another owner. Second, you can't be guaranteed of getting the one commodity you want (which you can always do with stocks). I might trade out of a high position and get scooped on the Gurley by a guy who's now ahead of me. Stocks don't function like this. At all.

So, the point is, if you believe Gurley will be a better dynasty producing running back than Bell, why would you take Bell? Because his perceived value in ADP or in consultation with you is higher? If you trust your own judgment and you can't manipulate a trade in your favor, why go with the guy you think will have a lesser career? That makes no sense.

You make good points. Players are not like stocks (in the context you describe) and values differ from league to league, owner to owner.

If I truly believed that Gurley were a generational talent, I would trade practically any player for him TODAY in a start 2+ RB league.

Going back to 2007 when Adrian Peterson came into the league, I would have traded any RB for him including a 23/24-year old Steven Jackson, even after a 400 point 2006 season! It wouldn’t have mattered if in every other league, Steven Jackson would be valued higher. Every league is different. At a generational level of talent, you never know when someone is going to pay the price now and then take the player off the market, FOREVER.

As for Bell and Gurley, I’m not a huge Bell fan to begin with. I wouldn’t draft Bell anywhere in the Top 7 or so picks in a startup. If I’m at 1.8 and were unfortunate enough to have Bell drop (i.e., my top 7 were all taken) and I loved Gurley, I’d probably just go ahead and take Gurley no matter that in other leagues, Bell would be taken ahead of Gurley. I’d only take Bell ahead of Gurley (at any slot) if I were certain I could trade him for either Gurley (and then some) or a player I liked more than Gurley.

Last thing you want is for some unfortunate incident befalling Bell (e.g., another suspension) when he wasn’t even your guy in the first place. Or Gurley returning sooner than expected and lighting it up early on, making him practically untouchable in your league. When dealing with a player you believe will be #1, go with your guy, not with the guy that every OTHER league would rank higher.

Edited by Ernol
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is Gurley a generational talent?

Ernol, do you take Bell or Gurley right now?

Edited by ghostguy123

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is Gurley a generational talent?

Ernol, do you take Bell or Gurley right now?

Deep breath. Step away from the gurley/bell debate

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.