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[Dynasty] Todd Gurley (9 Viewers)
- Thread starter tdmills
- Start date
https://theramswire.usatoday.com/2018/10/10/nfl-los-angeles-rams-todd-gurley-sean-mcvay-stats/
It has a lot to do with McVay's system. 11 personnel spreads the field out and Gurley benefits by facing fewer stacked boxes. Per Next Gen Stats, he concluded week 16 with second lowest % against stacked boxes in 2018 behind Tarik Cohen among qualified RBs
Arizona stacked the box against him by far the highest % this season in week 2 at 52.6% and not surprisingly Gurley had his worst running game of the year averaging only 2.2 ypc. That's why I asked why people assume he would perform better than Anderson but nobody around here is interested in that stuff anymore.
Take Gurley out of this system and OL and he's really the guy everyone saw in 2016.
Why are you still talking about me? I guess keeping the Shark Pool 100% football only applies some of the time.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
dkp993
Footballguy
So much for the bolded theory above...tjnc09 said:
From Rotoworld.....
Todd Gurley (knee) remained sidelined on Thursday.
Speaking Thursday, coach Sean McVay claimed Gurley could play against the 49ers without practicing, but we would consider that extremely unlikely. The Rams could still lose the No. 2 seed with an upset loss, but Gurley's playoff health figures to take precedence over anything else. Interestingly, McVay said Gurley had a similar issue following Week 1. He struggled in Week 2. C.J. Anderson would be a mouthwatering DFS play in Gurley's absence. Dec 27 - 4:22 PM
Despite the pain, Gurley felt in the aftermath of the opener, he said that his knee felt better two days later.
Myles SimmonsVerified account @MylesASimmons
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RB Todd Gurley, by the way, was back as a full participant in practice on Thursday.
6:00 PM - 15 Sep 2016
The Rams were so concerned about that injury they allowed him to be a full participant in practice before the game.
Are you going to try to debate the other point in that post that Gurley has simply been a system back for multiple years or ignore it because there is nothing to refute?
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https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/todd-gurley-is-in-the-right-system-at-the-right-time/
"As a consequence, Gurley has faced more six-man fronts on his carries than any other running back in football since McVay took over as head coach of the Rams. It has paid serious dividends. So far this season, Gurley is crushing it against those fronts, averaging 5.5 yards per carry. But against a neutral seven-man front, he’s been below league average at just 3.7 yards per attempt."
"Gurley is basically the same back he has always been since he came into the league. If you use broken and missed tackles as a proxy for talent,3 you can see that Gurley makes defenders miss when running against six-man fronts far less than expected."
"So Gurley is the beneficiary, not the proximate cause, of the Rams’ offensive resurgence under McVay."
Below league average.
Less than expected.
Beneficiary of McVay.
He's just another overpaid, replaceable RB.
"As a consequence, Gurley has faced more six-man fronts on his carries than any other running back in football since McVay took over as head coach of the Rams. It has paid serious dividends. So far this season, Gurley is crushing it against those fronts, averaging 5.5 yards per carry. But against a neutral seven-man front, he’s been below league average at just 3.7 yards per attempt."
"Gurley is basically the same back he has always been since he came into the league. If you use broken and missed tackles as a proxy for talent,3 you can see that Gurley makes defenders miss when running against six-man fronts far less than expected."
"So Gurley is the beneficiary, not the proximate cause, of the Rams’ offensive resurgence under McVay."
Below league average.
Less than expected.
Beneficiary of McVay.
He's just another overpaid, replaceable RB.
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
Ruled out this wk per the Rams
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Interesting.
As a Gurley owner this year, I was wowed more by his production than how he actually looked. Don't get me wrong, he looked really good, but not "best RB in the league" good. In other words, he didn't look like a RB that if you put him on the Giants, would produce like Barkley has, for example.
Tau837
Footballguy
That article was published on 10/19/18. For a more current picture, from Player Profiler:
- 2018:
Stacked front (8+ defenders in box) carry rate: 14.8% (#44 in league), 3.4 ypc
- Base front (7 defenders in box) carry rate: 40.2% (#33 in league), 4.3 ypc
- Light front (6 or fewer defenders in box) carry rate: 44.9% (#20 in league), 5.8 ypc
[*]2017:
Stacked front (8+ defenders in box) carry rate: 16.5% (#52 in league), 2.8 ypc (#41 in league)
- Base front (7 defenders in box) carry rate: 38.7% (#23 in league), 4.3 ypc (#23 in league)
- Light front (6 or fewer defenders in box) carry rate: 44.8% (#14 in league), 5.7 ypc (#8 in league)
He has absolutely benefited from running against light fronts at 5.7-5.8 ypc on about 45% of his carries. No doubt that is a benefit of playing in McVay's offense. But with nearly 40% of his carries against base/neutral fronts, he has consistently averaged 4.3 ypc, much better than the small sample size used in the article.
The truth probably lies in the middle ground between @tjnc09's ultra-negative opinion of Gurley's ability and the opinions of the pro-Gurley posters in this thread. I do think it is fair to assume that if Gurley played in most other offenses, his performance would suffer, although I expect he would still be a top 10 caliber RB.
CJ Anderson, a RB who has basically been unemployed all year, accumulated over 300 yards of offense in only two games.
Andrew74
Footballguy
Tau837
Footballguy
Your argument is undermined by his rookie season, which you conveniently ignore.
In 12 starts, he had 223/1097/10 rushing (4.9 ypc) and 20/183/0 receiving (9.2 ypr). That scales to 297/1463/13 rushing and 27/244/0 receiving over 16 games. In terms of fantasy performance, he was RB #3 in weeks 4-16, the weeks he started.
And guess what? That wasn't in McVay's offense.
Again, the truth lies in the middle between your ultra-negative take and the takes of the pro-Gurley posters.
Of course. There were a lot of red flags going into 2018.
2016 PFF projected their OL #9; 2018 PFF projected their OL #27
Projected Vegas win total down from 9.5 in 2016 to 5.5 in 2018. More wins, more positive game scripts
Massive drop off in QB and defense
Mike McCoy was fired from the Chargers in 2016, fired midseason from the Broncos in 2017, and not surprisingly fired midseason in 2018. DJ's route charts in 2018 compared to 2016 were pathetic.
Put David Johnson in McVay's offense and everyone would talk about how he is the best RB in the league.
I'm aware of his rookie season. The proclaimed "best" RB in the league would never have a season that bad imo.
Also speculating he would be "top 10" in any other offense seems like a stretch when in two non-McVay season's he was "top 10" and "complete garbage". His success/failure depends on a number of other things independent of Gurley's personal capabilities. He's a top 10 guy in Pittsburgh, probably not a top 10 guy in Buffalo. Any RB in McVay's system is top 10, easy.
Gurley has a career avg of 4.4, that is totally solid.
What he has is long range speed, he can go the distance at any time. Could return kicks like at Georgia.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
IheartGuinness
Footballguy
Yeah I dunno...
ETA not suggesting a time share just that Gurley’s production could possibly be impacted some
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Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Malcolm Brown is a FA so they got a spot open to back up Gurley but CJ might have shown enough to get a better opportunity somewhere else.Tool said:
Until last season CJ Anderson had never cracked 200 carries in a season, college or pro. 188 max. Finally did it last season and was so unimpressive Denver moved on and interest in him around the league was pretty low. He has without question performed outstanding this yer but I think it's got to do with having fresh legs later in the season for a RB who's been at his best in few game spurts during his career. I believe the best CJ Anderson is one who has been barely been used all season and gets unleashed late in the season. I would not be the least bit worried about Gurley if he should return to the Rams next year.
I'm glad Gurley worked his extension out with the Rams, for sure don't want him playing with anyone else. What does appear obvious is McVay seems pretty adept at putting a running game together and while Gurley is clearly world class this team has the look of one of those teams than can get big time RB production, for at least a few game stretch, from what seems sometimes as just about anybody. I feel like if Malcolm Brown had remained healthy he'd have also been rolling during Gurley's absence.
tombonneau
Footballguy
Didn't they combine for like 35 carries? No way game plan was to give Gurley the bulk of those carries.
Will be interesting if CJA gets enough interest to earn a decent check, but my guess is they bring him back on the cheap.
Evan SilvaVerified account @evansilvaffmail4me said:
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Evan Silva Retweeted Next Gen Stats
Todd Gurley looked as good as new after 3-week layoff, yet was still outplayed & deservedly out-touched by CJ Anderson. #Rams #MemberWhenGurleyWasMVP
Evan Silva added,
Next Gen StatsVerified account @NextGenStats
Todd Gurley didn't seem bothered by his knee injury today. @TG3II averaged 12.08 MPH at the line of scrimmage on his rushes, his fastest in a game this season. He had 6 carries reaching 15+ MPH, a season high. …
5:51 AM - 13 Jan 2019
Seems like a lot of smart people in the industry think that Gurley is overrated. Why is that?
Soulfly3
Footballguy
because he's not an arrogant media hog, so he gets to play the role as the consensus overrated superstar
dkp993
Footballguy
Provide your links if it's that easy. Nobody who uses advanced metrics agrees with you.
It cracks me up that Todd Gurley could tear his ACL in practice and Vegas wouldn't move the spread for this week's game a single point. The "best" RB in the league is literally worth ZERO points over his replacement. Bookmakers are willing to accept millions of dollars in wagers on the notion that Gurley has no added value over a RB that was cut by two terrible teams this year. The fact that people still defend his value after I pointed that out is simply mind boggling.
IheartGuinness
Footballguy
dkp993
Footballguy
Are you admitting you can't actually defend Gurley's value with an intelligent discussion? It really shouldn't be this difficult considering what you think of him.
dkp993
Footballguy
Not in the slightest. I’m just regretting replying to you as this is pointless. You believe what you do and won’t be swayed (as you’ve made it clear, you think you’re smarter then everyone) and I’m perfectly confident in mine.
lol you were the only who willingly responded to my post from Silva. I then ask you to defend something YOU wrote and now all of a sudden it's a waste of time to respond.
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