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[Dynasty] Todd Gurley

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33 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

Some telling stats...

- Weeks 1-8 he averaged 21 carries, then it dropped to 14 for the next 3 weeks, then a spike back up to 23 for a week.  Why the spike?  Because they had a bye week and he got 2 weeks rest.  The following two weeks he went back down to 11, followed by 12.  Why?  Because it hurts, that's why.  Then he takes nearly a month off, comes back for 16 carries, and follows it up with 4 carries.  Why?  Because it hurts, that's why.  Then he gets 10 carries in the biggest game of his life?

Now here's the fun part - you're gonna have to draft him without seeing him perform in the preseason, because he can't afford to waste whatever he has left in those knees.  Also, you are going to be told he's fine by every Rams trainer and coach, because it's their job.  I will be passing him up for sure, unless he falls to about the 6th round, which he won't.  He is standing at the cliff's edge, but he is a trooper.  I can only imagine how sore he is after a game.

This is a good post,.  Even though it is in no way what I want to see, it is tough to dispute what you are pointing out.  Still hope like heck that you are coming to the wrong conclusion, but its a difficult position to defend.

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1 hour ago, TheWinz said:

Some telling stats...

- Weeks 1-8 he averaged 21 carries, then it dropped to 14 for the next 3 weeks, then a spike back up to 23 for a week.  Why the spike?  Because they had a bye week and he got 2 weeks rest.  The following two weeks he went back down to 11, followed by 12.  Why?  Because it hurts, that's why.  Then he takes nearly a month off, comes back for 16 carries, and follows it up with 4 carries.  Why?  Because it hurts, that's why.  Then he gets 10 carries in the biggest game of his life?

Now here's the fun part - you're gonna have to draft him without seeing him perform in the preseason, because he can't afford to waste whatever he has left in those knees.  Also, you are going to be told he's fine by every Rams trainer and coach, because it's their job.  I will be passing him up for sure, unless he falls to about the 6th round, which he won't.  He is standing at the cliff's edge, but he is a trooper.  I can only imagine how sore he is after a game.

He could’ve been hurt last year and will be better with 7 months off. Not saying will happen but is possible.

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4 hours ago, Tool said:

He could’ve been hurt last year and will be better with 7 months off. Not saying will happen but is possible.

He did. Week one, played through it and it got progressively worse. Then likely really got hurt again in the Chiefs game, that one was a bad hit that at the time had me thinking his season was done. Waldman recently has gone as far a saying he likely sustained some ligament damage from that hit (if I remember correctly he thinks it was PCL).

My guess is it’s both.  His knee clearly has some arthritis that will shorten his career  but he also took some hits last year that likely did some damage.  He carries some risk for sure but the upside is enormous and if he get through the season without taking one of those bad knee hits I’m betting he has a top 5 RB year still.  

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On 7/1/2019 at 6:08 PM, dkp993 said:

He did. Week one, played through it and it got progressively worse. Then likely really got hurt again in the Chiefs game, that one was a bad hit that at the time had me thinking his season was done. Waldman recently has gone as far a saying he likely sustained some ligament damage from that hit (if I remember correctly he thinks it was PCL).

My guess is it’s both.  His knee clearly has some arthritis that will shorten his career  but he also took some hits last year that likely did some damage.  He carries some risk for sure but the upside is enormous and if he get through the season without taking one of those bad knee hits I’m betting he has a top 5 RB year still.  

I remember that play in the chief’s game.  I honestly thought he’d blew out his knee.  During the game and the week after I kept waiting for the shoe to drop. 

I feel the same as you on his outlook. 

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2 hours ago, Andrew74 said:

I remember that play in the chief’s game.  I honestly thought he’d blew out his knee.  During the game and the week after I kept waiting for the shoe to drop. 

I feel the same as you on his outlook. 

Yup.  Was watching it and thought he was done for the year.

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3 hours ago, Alex P Keaton said:

Yup.  Was watching it and thought he was done for the year.

Yeah, I thought it was more of an ankle twister than a knee injury (if I recall, his ankle/foot got twisted under the tackler as he hit the ground) but either way, that moment was a critical one that changed the rest of the season for Gurley and the Rams. 

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no clue how to draft this guy.  he's going to win or lose a lot of people leagues this year.

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4 hours ago, Deamon said:

no clue how to draft this guy.  he's going to win or lose a lot of people leagues this year.

Agreed.  He's a complete wildcard.  He is a tough guy and a competitor.  But did we get a sneak preview of 2019 at the end of 2018?  I ain't buying McVay's coach speak.  In LA's final 7 games (which includes the postseason), Gurley played in 5 of them, averaging 10.6 carries.  In his first 12 games, he averaged 19.4 carries.  Todd is a TD machine, but there is no way he can return value with 10 carries a game, unless he is either drafted much later than his ADP, or becomes a pass-catching RB like Kamara.  I wouldn't buy a new car without test driving it, and I won't draft Gurley at his ADP without seeing for myself.  It's a catch-22 as we all know, because just like religion, you're gonna have to have faith without proof.

As for his off-season weight loss to save his knees, he was already one of the lightest for a workhorse his size (6'1" and low 220's).  I can see why he would want to lose weight to save his knees, but it's not a good sign for continued volume.  I ask myself, why exactly did they draft Darrell Henderson, the 3rd overall RB?  And why did they trade the 94th and 99th picks to move up to 70th?  Why would a team be so aggressive to nab an early RB if they already have their expected workhorse getting 300 touches?  Actions speak louder than words.

For me, I will draft a safe guy like Leonard Fournette.  :D

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1 hour ago, TheWinz said:

Agreed.  He's a complete wildcard.  He is a tough guy and a competitor.  But did we get a sneak preview of 2019 at the end of 2018?  I ain't buying McVay's coach speak.  In LA's final 7 games (which includes the postseason), Gurley played in 5 of them, averaging 10.6 carries.  In his first 12 games, he averaged 19.4 carries.  Todd is a TD machine, but there is no way he can return value with 10 carries a game, unless he is either drafted much later than his ADP, or becomes a pass-catching RB like Kamara.  I wouldn't buy a new car without test driving it, and I won't draft Gurley at his ADP without seeing for myself.  It's a catch-22 as we all know, because just like religion, you're gonna have to have faith without proof.

As for his off-season weight loss to save his knees, he was already one of the lightest for a workhorse his size (6'1" and low 220's).  I can see why he would want to lose weight to save his knees, but it's not a good sign for continued volume.  I ask myself, why exactly did they draft Darrell Henderson, the 3rd overall RB?  And why did they trade the 94th and 99th picks to move up to 70th?  Why would a team be so aggressive to nab an early RB if they already have their expected workhorse getting 300 touches?  Actions speak louder than words.

For me, I will draft a safe guy like Leonard Fournette.  :D

Yeah at least with a guy like Fournette you know he’s going to get hurt.  Lol. 

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1 hour ago, TheWinz said:

I ask myself, why exactly did they draft Darrell Henderson, the 3rd overall RB?  And why did they trade the 94th and 99th picks to move up to 70th?  Why would a team be so aggressive to nab an early RB if they already have their expected workhorse getting 300 touches?  Actions speak louder than words.

For one, I think they realize they made a mistake not giving Gurley more breathers in the past. Also, they have wanted a change-of-pace guy, and hoped Lance Dunbar would be that guy, but he couldn't stay healthy. They are hoping Henderson will be that guy. They love to run the ball, and having versatility in your backfield is a plus. If Gurley's knee gets aggravated, Brown can handle his duties, and meanwhile Henderson can play his part as the change-of-pace RB. Who knows if Henderson will even acclimate well into the NFL, but moving up in the draft to get that c-o-p guy they feel they have been looking for wasn't necessarily a red flag for Gurley.

Edited by simey

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3 minutes ago, simey said:

For one, I think they realize they made a mistake not giving Gurley more breathers in the past. Also, they have wanted a change-of-pace guy, and hoped Lance Dunbar would be that guy, but he couldn't stay healthy. They are hoping Henderson will be that guy. They love to run the ball, and having versatility in your backfield is a plus. If Gurley's knee gets aggravated, Brown can handle his duties, and meanwhile Henderson can play his part as the change-of-pace RB. Who knows if Henderson will even acclimate well into the NFL, but moving up in the draft to get that c-o-p guy they feel they have been looking for wasn't necessarily a red flag for Gurley.

I guess we differ just a little bit, because I see Henderson as a possible workhorse with good receiving chops.  He isn't just a CoP, he has the package to be a 3-down back.  He is a pretty solid guy, but I don't know his exact height and weight.  I have seen either 5'8" or 5'9" and 200 to 208.  I would expect him to add a few more pounds.  You may be right though - perhaps they jumped up because they are not so confident in Malcolm Brown as a backup.  

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2 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

I guess we differ just a little bit, because I see Henderson as a possible workhorse with good receiving chops.  He isn't just a CoP, he has the package to be a 3-down back.  He is a pretty solid guy, but I don't know his exact height and weight.  I have seen either 5'8" or 5'9" and 200 to 208.  I would expect him to add a few more pounds.  You may be right though - perhaps they jumped up because they are not so confident in Malcolm Brown as a backup.  

I think Brown is the backup, and Henderson is the COP.  If Gurley misses time, I suspect something like a 60/40 split for Brown.  Unless Henderson REALLY looks special on the field (which is clearly a possibility - see Alvin Kamara who I also think was viewed as a COP type).  If you look at his measurables, the comps are mostlyCOP backs.  One of Browns comps is Gurley.

Henderson - https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/darrell-henderson

Brown - https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/malcolm-brown

 

Here is Kamara just for comparison's sake.  Has some size on Henderson, and he is still on the smaller side for HBs.

https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/alvin-kamara

 

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14 minutes ago, simey said:

For one, I think they realize they made a mistake not giving Gurley more breathers in the past. Also, they have wanted a change-of-pace guy, and hoped Lance Dunbar would be that guy, but he couldn't stay healthy. They are hoping Henderson will be that guy. They love to run the ball, and having versatility in your backfield is a plus. If Gurley's knee gets aggravated, Brown can handle his duties, and meanwhile Henderson can play his part as the change-of-pace RB. Who knows if Henderson will even acclimate well into the NFL, but moving up in the draft to get that c-o-p guy they feel they have been looking for wasn't necessarily a red flag for Gurley.

 

1 minute ago, TheWinz said:

I guess we differ just a little bit, because I see Henderson as a possible workhorse with good receiving chops.  He isn't just a CoP, he has the package to be a 3-down back.  He is a pretty solid guy, but I don't know his exact height and weight.  I have seen either 5'8" or 5'9" and 200 to 208.  I would expect him to add a few more pounds.  You may be right though - perhaps they jumped up because they are not so confident in Malcolm Brown as a backup.  

Having obsessively followed the Rams most of my life (ie reading every once of material I can find) I think it’s a bit of both.

McVay has always wanted a strong change of pace guy for his offense and has just missed out on the guys he’s wanted to draft the past 2 years.  But it’s also clear there something there with Gurley’s knee and they can’t bank on the amount of reps they’ve gotten in the past.  So with both of those factors (missing out on their guys in the draft and Gurley’s issue) they made sure that they secured Henderson this year. 

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I think at this point they are going to severely manage his workload to get all they can out of that contract.  

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On 7/20/2019 at 6:59 PM, Gottabesweet said:

I think at this point they are going to severely manage his workload to get all they can out of that contract.  

This season and next are the only big dead cap hits left

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NFL.com's Steve Wyche reports Todd Gurley wants to play around 218 pounds this season after usually checking in near 224.

Wyche also said he's spoken to people "with the Rams and around Todd Gurley," and that no one expects a drop off in his production. In the same breath, Wyche also said the Rams are expected to spell Gurley more in 2019, which would necessarily mean a drop off. Mothballed all offseason, Gurley will once again sit out the entire preseason. Aside from breadcrumbs like this, fantasy owners could mostly be flying blind when it comes to Gurley's true regular season usage.

SOURCE: NFL.com

Jul 23, 2019, 3:22 PM ET

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Todd Gurley will practice on Saturday.

Cooper Kupp (ACL) will also be on hand for the start of training camp Saturday. As beat reporter Gary Klein of the Los Angeles Times notes, both will have their workloads "carefully managed." A large portion of the fantasy community has faded Gurley in the wake of his ongoing knee issues, conveniently forgetting that the 24-year-old earned All-Pro status while amassing 21 touchdowns last season. The risk is there, but if Gurley plays to the level he did in 2018, he could end up being a massive bargain at his current second-round ADP.

SOURCE: Gary Klein on Twitter

Jul 26, 2019, 4:10 PM ET

 

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On 7/20/2019 at 3:14 AM, Deamon said:

no clue how to draft this guy.  he's going to win or lose a lot of people leagues this year.

More likely to lose than win.  Unless we are being misled about his knee, I don't see any way it gets better, and I doubt it can withstand a lot of touches every week.  If it could, he would have been used more last winter when they were playing to get to and then win the freaking Super Bowl.  

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12 minutes ago, Ghost Rider said:

More likely to lose than win.  Unless we are being misled about his knee, I don't see any way it gets better, and I doubt it can withstand a lot of touches every week.  If it could, he would have been used more last winter when they were playing to get to and then win the freaking Super Bowl.  

Yeah - about to draft a start-up dynasty league & Gurley is basically on my DND list. I just don’t trust the knee, and the Rams have some depth at the position.  

He may well stay on the field all year.   But for that to happen I can’t imagine he’ll be a 25+ touch guy. More like a 12-15 touch guy. I could see the Rams managing his workload specifically to avoid what happened down the stretch last season.

And that makes him unworthy of his draft selection/auction value. 

Hey, never say never, and if he’s a steep enough discount I’ll throw a bid his way, but I’m pretty sure one of the other 11 teams will easily outbid me. 

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57 minutes ago, Ghost Rider said:

More likely to lose than win.  Unless we are being misled about his knee, I don't see any way it gets better, and I doubt it can withstand a lot of touches every week.  If it could, he would have been used more last winter when they were playing to get to and then win the freaking Super Bowl.  

Maybe he was hurt more than what the Rams led on? That part should be clear. It should also be clear that his workload will be reduced. Still, 60-75% Gurley for 2-3 years is nice. I’m not buying this talk of him being a shell of himself this year and for the forceable future. 

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47 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Yeah - about to draft a start-up dynasty league & Gurley is basically on my DND list. I just don’t trust the knee, and the Rams have some depth at the position.  

He may well stay on the field all year.   But for that to happen I can’t imagine he’ll be a 25+ touch guy. More like a 12-15 touch guy. I could see the Rams managing his workload specifically to avoid what happened down the stretch last season.

And that makes him unworthy of his draft selection/auction value. 

Hey, never say never, and if he’s a steep enough discount I’ll throw a bid his way, but I’m pretty sure one of the other 11 teams will easily outbid me. 

It's inevitable that in nearly draft, someone will draft him way higher than I would dream of, and in nearly auction, someone will spend way more than I would.  There is always that one person who wants to catch lightning in case Gurley's knee magically holds up well enough to be a (nearly) every week beast again. 

1 minute ago, dipandglide said:

Maybe he was hurt more than what the Rams led on? That part should be clear. It should also be clear that his workload will be reduced. Still, 60-75% Gurley for 2-3 years is nice. I’m not buying this talk of him being a shell of himself this year and for the forceable future. 

I can see a scenario where his knee feels good one week and he gets a lot of touches, and then the next week, it doesn't feel so good and his touches are limited, but the Rams are never going to let on what is what, so it'll likely be a case of taking the bad with the good. 

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Seemed pretty clear watching him that he injured it in-season vs KC.  He wasn't ever the same after that --- but he never really had a chance to get healthy.

We'll see.   My gut is that he gets 16-18 touches per week including goal line work.

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1 minute ago, Alex P Keaton said:

but he never really had a chance to get healthy.

He sat out 4/5 weeks in real time?

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3 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

He sat out 4/5 weeks in real time?

He got injured in week 11 and played the next 4 weeks straight.   None of us have any idea how long that injury - if there was one - typically would require to heal fully.

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I'm looking at this as a glass half full kind of situation.  No one is going to want to draft him, and I'd be stoked to snag him as my RB2

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im curious if he moves back up ADP ranks by end of next month. would love to draft him in the 2nd round. it would be stealing. of course there is risk but you handcuff the backup RB to mitigate... and you still probably get decent fantasy production out of the backup in that offense

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1 minute ago, iamkoza said:

im curious if he moves back up ADP ranks by end of next month. would love to draft him in the 2nd round. it would be stealing. of course there is risk but you handcuff the backup RB to mitigate... and you still probably get decent fantasy production out of the backup in that offense

If anything, I'd bet he moves down cuz he won't be playing in pre-season.

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Only way I pull the trigger is if he falls to the mid-second, which he almost certainly will not.

Edited by zoonation

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Getting really tempted to pull the trigger at pick #13 if he is there. Should have Kamara and another mid level RB2 to cover my losses if he falters. But it’s hard not to draft him when looking at his numbers last year. He scored 160 more points than Mixon which is who I would draft otherwise. 

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2 minutes ago, Elevencents said:

Getting really tempted to pull the trigger at pick #13 if he is there. Should have Kamara and another mid level RB2 to cover my losses if he falters. But it’s hard not to draft him when looking at his numbers last year. He scored 160 more points than Mixon which is who I would draft otherwise. 

1) Do you think anything has changed between 2018 and 2019?
2) Which of these players do you think has the higher chance of producing the same numbers as last year?  Better numbers?

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7 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

1) Do you think anything has changed between 2018 and 2019?
2) Which of these players do you think has the higher chance of producing the same numbers as last year?  Better numbers?

1- gurley's knee, mixon still a great talent on a bad team

2 -mixon, but i think theres a decent chance gurley drops off from last year and still significantly outproduces mixon this year 

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33 minutes ago, Elevencents said:

Getting really tempted to pull the trigger at pick #13 if he is there. Should have Kamara and another mid level RB2 to cover my losses if he falters. But it’s hard not to draft him when looking at his numbers last year. He scored 160 more points than Mixon which is who I would draft otherwise. 

How do you figure you'll have Kamara and still be picking at pick 13? Is this a keeper league?

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12 minutes ago, kutta said:

How do you figure you'll have Kamara and still be picking at pick 13? Is this a keeper league?

Maybe it's an 8 man league? That would be Kamara at 4 and the 13th pick would be his second round. Not too many 8 team leagues though.

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1 hour ago, kutta said:

How do you figure you'll have Kamara and still be picking at pick 13? Is this a keeper league?

The new craze is the 2nd Round Reversal. Keep up, fellas ;)

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2 hours ago, tangfoot said:

1) Do you think anything has changed between 2018 and 2019?
2) Which of these players do you think has the higher chance of producing the same numbers as last year?  Better numbers?

With Gurley being pretty much absent in the playoffs I’m sure the Rams will approach his use much differently this season. Especially with the prospective talent of Henderson. 

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10 hours ago, iamkoza said:

im curious if he moves back up ADP ranks by end of next month. would love to draft him in the 2nd round. it would be stealing. of course there is risk but you handcuff the backup RB to mitigate... and you still probably get decent fantasy production out of the backup in that offense

I think he’s still a back end of the 1st round player for snake drafts. 

Not saying he’ll live up to that value, but IMO no one’s gonna let him slip past the turn. If I’m at 12 and grab a guy I like, Gurley is a great upside pick, even if you’re overpaying slightly. 

Actual value I put him mid-second, maybe even 2.10-ish. Upside, but significant risk. Sure, he’s a threat to score from anywhere but he’s gotta get the touches for that to happen. 

Articles I’ve read talk him up as a value because even with a reduced workload he can be effective - and while that’s true, and his numbers for the season may look low end RB1, I’m betting his inconsistency is going to be frustrating to shareholders. 

likely some big swings week to week. The thing about high touch RBs is that their floor is high for volume. First half of last year he was just a locked and loaded beast every week.  

Without the volume, Gurley becomes far riskier as a weekly plug & play, and no guarantee he gets GL carries. 

So yeah - I think ADP will be 1.09-1.12 when we get closer to the season, and I doubt he’d get far into the 2nd if he falls there at all. Stranger things have happened though. 

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7 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I think he’s still a back end of the 1st round player for snake drafts. 

Not saying he’ll live up to that value, but IMO no one’s gonna let him slip past the turn. If I’m at 12 and grab a guy I like, Gurley is a great upside pick, even if you’re overpaying slightly. 

 

Except I have done over 30 real drafts already and Gurley has slipped to the 3rd round a few times and a lot of times went in the mid to late 2nd.

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Just now, KellysHeroes said:

ws he worth dynasty?  Thinking of offering a 1st and some mid tier player.

I can't see any self-respecting Gurley owner accepting that.  Maybe if you can convince him the sky is falling.

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1 minute ago, KellysHeroes said:

ws he worth dynasty?  Thinking of offering a 1st and some mid tier player.

Unless it’s a lock top 3 pick (and even if it is) I think you’d need to do better than that.

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11 hours ago, Dez said:

Except I have done over 30 real drafts already and Gurley has slipped to the 3rd round a few times and a lot of times went in the mid to late 2nd.

1. You’ve done 30+ real drafts before Aug 1st? 😳  That seems like...a lot. Anyway....

2. I said “as we get closer to the season. It’s difficult for me to see Gurley’s ADP that low after a pre-season with no set-backs & where reports about his knee have been positive.

Regardless, the drafts YOU have been in (even 30+ of them) are purely anecdotal & not necessarily relevant to what Gurley’s ADP will be.

Right now, ADP calculator has Gurley at 14th overall. That’s consistent with what I expected to see. https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp

And in my leagues, where league managers are sharks who have all been playing for decades, I seriously doubt he’d make it past the turn. As mentioned - I’m low on Gurley this year, but if I’m sitting 12, he’s a solid upside 2nd pick I’d consider. 

best of luck in your leagues. Should be easy money what with everyone letting a dude with an ADP of 14 slide to the 30s. :shrug:

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On 7/29/2019 at 3:30 PM, dkp993 said:

Good article.  Addresses what I and a few other have been saying about his potential even with a reduced workload.  

https://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=2019-todd-gurley-to-knee-or-not-to-knee

 

Another article that quotes past performances and medical staff members...and comes up with the exact opposite take.

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/news/2019-fantasy-football-draft-prep-will-todd-gurleys-knee-injury-trip-up-your-season/

 

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On 7/30/2019 at 11:02 AM, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Right now, ADP calculator has Gurley at 14th overall. 

Feels like he’s going to be on a lot of championship teams this year. 

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On 7/31/2019 at 8:32 PM, -jb- said:

 

Another article that quotes past performances and medical staff members...and comes up with the exact opposite take.

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/news/2019-fantasy-football-draft-prep-will-todd-gurleys-knee-injury-trip-up-your-season/

 

Good info. Thanks. We’re not long from finding out.  

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