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[Dynasty] Todd Gurley

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31 minutes ago, enyce said:

Gurley says he isn't worried, Gordon says that Todd is good, Eric Dickerson says Todd is good.  I'll come back to revisit the hysteria that was this off-season after he drops 1500-2000 combined yards and another 15+ total TD's this year.

:blackdot:

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On ‚Äé6‚Äé/‚Äé12‚Äé/‚Äé2019 at 10:32 PM, enyce said:

Gurley says he isn't worried, Gordon says that Todd is good, Eric Dickerson says Todd is good.  I'll come back to revisit the hysteria that was this off-season after he drops 1500-2000 combined yards and another 15+ total TD's this year.

Where would you feel comfortable drafting him if your draft was tomorrow?

 

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He's just about to become the steal of the draft somehow.  

I think he gets cut back from 25 touches a game.  But to say he's going to be seeing 9-12 touches a game?  My god.  Jordan Howard's team didn't even like him and he got nearly 17 touches per game.  

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In the 2 biggest games of his career, he got 5 and 11 touches. I'd be way too nervous to take him in the 1st round at this time. Maybe if he shows some preseason action.

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1 minute ago, IHEARTFF said:

In the 2 biggest games of his career, he got 5 and 11 touches. I'd be way too nervous to take him in the 1st round at this time. Maybe if he shows some preseason action.

What about round 2 if he slips?

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1 minute ago, Twenty-Four Eighty-Four said:

What about round 2 if he slips?

Yeah probably in mid 2, where would you take him.

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2 hours ago, IHEARTFF said:

In the 2 biggest games of his career, he got 5 and 11 touches. I'd be way too nervous to take him in the 1st round at this time. Maybe if he shows some preseason action.

That will not be happening.  He played zero in last years preseason and they’ve already made it clear he will not again this yr.  

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8 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Where would you feel comfortable drafting him if your draft was tomorrow?

 

Somewhere at the latter half of the first I'd pull the trigger.  Definitely anywhere in the 2nd.

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3 minutes ago, enyce said:

Somewhere at the latter half of the first I'd pull the trigger.  Definitely anywhere in the 2nd.

Yeah that’s pretty reasonable. I rank him about 6 for RBs in redraft, so that’s the range.

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19 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Yeah that’s pretty reasonable. I rank him about 6 for RBs in redraft, so that’s the range.

Would agree. 

 

Not sure if I'd take him at all... but that's where I'd rank him

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Todd Gurley's trainer confirmed the running back is dealing with an "arthritic component to his knee."

"Everybody knew when Todd came out of Georgia that there would be some kind of arthritic component to his knee," trainer Travelle Gaines told CBS Sports. "He's now at the year-five mark, all we're doing is managing that." Gaines also said he has not been told the Rams plan to limit Gurley's workload to keep him fresh, although their offseason moves paint a pretty clear picture. Gurley is a risk-reward pick early in the second round.

SOURCE: CBS Sports

Jun 17, 2019, 1:20 PM ET

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18 minutes ago, Faust said:

 

 

This was followed up with a post by Rotoworld saying that water is wet.   

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If you were able to catch a Gurley fire sale its going to work out really well for you this season!

 

From FBG Email:

Source: Yahoo - Shalise Manza Young

Updating previous reports. Los Angeles Rams RB Todd Gurley (knee) is in fact dealing with arthritis in his knee after months of speculation. Travelle Gaines, who has trained Gurley for three years, suggested 'not one thing has changed' in regards to his client and that 'our routine has worked, he's been strong, he's been in great shape, he's done well.' Gaines went on to say the decision this offseason to have Gurley drop six pounds and trim his body fat from 10 percent to seven was not due to injuries and more to accentuate his speed. The trainer also said 'it's never been told to me' that the Rams plan on decreasing Gurley's workload come Week 1.'Everybody knew when Todd came out of Georgia that there would be some kind of arthritic component to his knee, which is part of every surgery whether it's a shoulder, a knee, an ankle. He's now at the Year 5 mark; all we're doing is managing that. If we can pound him less in the offseason while keeping his weight down, working on his strength, working on his agility in short areas, that's going to give him a better chance to be healthy Weeks 14 through 17 when they really count,' Gaines said.

 

 

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On ‚Äé2‚Äé/‚Äé4‚Äé/‚Äé2019 at 9:15 PM, tjnc09 said:

Rams are expected to have X rushing yards per game

Rams will now use two RBs instead of one

But the real reason Gurley's expected yards are lower is because of an undisclosed, mysterious injury he doesn't actually have.  Simple math can't possibly be the reason.

How about now?

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3 hours ago, LakeCowboy said:

If you were able to catch a Gurley fire sale its going to work out really well for you this season!

 

From FBG Email:

Source: Yahoo - Shalise Manza Young

Updating previous reports. Los Angeles Rams RB Todd Gurley (knee) is in fact dealing with arthritis in his knee after months of speculation. Travelle Gaines, who has trained Gurley for three years, suggested 'not one thing has changed' in regards to his client and that 'our routine has worked, he's been strong, he's been in great shape, he's done well.' Gaines went on to say the decision this offseason to have Gurley drop six pounds and trim his body fat from 10 percent to seven was not due to injuries and more to accentuate his speed. The trainer also said 'it's never been told to me' that the Rams plan on decreasing Gurley's workload come Week 1.'Everybody knew when Todd came out of Georgia that there would be some kind of arthritic component to his knee, which is part of every surgery whether it's a shoulder, a knee, an ankle. He's now at the Year 5 mark; all we're doing is managing that. If we can pound him less in the offseason while keeping his weight down, working on his strength, working on his agility in short areas, that's going to give him a better chance to be healthy Weeks 14 through 17 when they really count,' Gaines said.

 

 

For which side?

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Just drafted Gurley at the 3.02 in a redraft in one of those little $35 best ball leagues I got for free...and wasn't thrilled about it.

Edited by Dez
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And so the real reason why Gurley had a total of 53 carries in the last 2 weeks of the regular season and the 3 playoff games was because he was too fat?

Edited by Bronco Billy

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2 hours ago, Bronco Billy said:

And so the real reason why Gurley had a total of 53 carries in the last 2 weeks of the regular season and the 3 playoff games was because he was too fat?

That's what you get out of this recent report?

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33 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

That's what you get out of this recent report?

 

I get that we are going to get no useful information out of the LAR staff, just like last year when Gurley was getting a greatly reduced workload in the playoffs despite nothing allegedly being wrong.  For any member of the Rams’ staff or a trainer to put forth something and then have FFers think it is any reliable indicator of Gurley’s condition or workload in the coming season seems kind of silly given the history to date.

Edited by Bronco Billy

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12 hours ago, Bronco Billy said:

And so the real reason why Gurley had a total of 53 carries in the last 2 weeks of the regular season and the 3 playoff games was because he was too fat?

Agreed. They can manage Gurley's pain this year, but at end of last year, and in the SUPER BOWL when they needed him most, he barely played. Color me skeptical and concerned. 

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20 hours ago, joey said:

Agreed. They can manage Gurley's pain this year, but at end of last year, and in the SUPER BOWL when they needed him most, he barely played. Color me skeptical and concerned. 

Yeah if it was so easy to manage youd think he would have played in the biggest game of his career ūü§∑‚Äć‚ôāÔłŹ

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On 6/19/2019 at 10:01 AM, Bronco Billy said:

And so the real reason why Gurley had a total of 53 carries in the last 2 weeks of the regular season and the 3 playoff games was because he was too fat?

 

I assume they're telling him the best way to prevent further arthritis is to play at a lighter weight.

I keep seeing him go mid-late 2nd in mocks.  I pride myself on being risk adverse, but getting hard to pass at that point.

 

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so they gave up two 3rd round picks to jump up 24 spots to nab Henderson and no one thinks anything of it?! The supposed best RB in the NFL sat out the SB? every time you put on a Rams game he was on a bicycle on the sidelines and that's OK?

I'd put Gurley on top of the do not draft RB mountain, up there with D. Cook, all Niners RBs, among others.

If I'm not mistaken Dr Dan had a pretty good summation of Gurley's knee in one of these threads, and that should be more than enough to scare anyone away from selecting Gurley.

point is, he could be really good as usual,  but he's just as likely to be riding the bike on the sidelines while you slam your beer mug into the bar countertop at buffalo wild wings because you've just realized you started him and he's sitting the whole game.

it's the maddening 'will he start or won't he?' thing you'll go thru every week. watching injury reports, reading up on him every.single.week. Let someone else deal with it. I wouldnt touch him at all, whether in the first round or the 12th round. 

there's only value there if you think he plays 16 games. 

I'll bet he plays 8 or fewer games and rushes for 800 or fewer yards. he's almost a decoy at this point.

I say this as someone who has a severely arthritic ankle that's the size of a grapefruit. Old basketball injuries and many sprains. everything around it is inflamed and tender all the time.  but I'm not a 20-something RB who relies on his legs. If a team doctor sat him during the biggest game of his career, as well as  the other playoff games, and they trade up 24 spots to grab Henderson, you KNOW the writing is on the wall for Gurley.

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, Tanner9919 said:

so they gave up two 3rd round picks to jump up 24 spots to nab Henderson and no one thinks anything of it?! The supposed best RB in the NFL sat out the SB? every time you put on a Rams game he was on a bicycle on the sidelines and that's OK?

I'd put Gurley on top of the do not draft RB mountain, up there with D. Cook, all Niners RBs, among others.

If I'm not mistaken Dr Dan had a pretty good summation of Gurley's knee in one of these threads, and that should be more than enough to scare anyone away from selecting Gurley.

point is, he could be really good as usual,  but he's just as likely to be riding the bike on the sidelines while you slam your beer mug into the bar countertop at buffalo wild wings because you've just realized you started him and he's sitting the whole game.

it's the maddening 'will he start or won't he?' thing you'll go thru every week. watching injury reports, reading up on him every.single.week. Let someone else deal with it. I wouldnt touch him at all, whether in the first round or the 12th round. 

there's only value there if you think he plays 16 games. 

I'll bet he plays 8 or fewer games and rushes for 800 or fewer yards. he's almost a decoy at this point.

I say this as someone who has a severely arthritic ankle that's the size of a grapefruit. Old basketball injuries and many sprains. everything around it is inflamed and tender all the time.  but I'm not a 20-something RB who relies on his legs. If a team doctor sat him during the biggest game of his career, as well as  the other playoff games, and they trade up 24 spots to grab Henderson, you KNOW the writing is on the wall for Gurley.

 

 

 

Actually it's one 3rd round pick, pick 99 at the end of the round, to move up 24 spots from 94 to 70

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Some telling stats...

- Weeks 1-8 he averaged 21 carries, then it dropped to 14 for the next 3 weeks, then a spike back up to 23 for a week.  Why the spike?  Because they had a bye week and he got 2 weeks rest.  The following two weeks he went back down to 11, followed by 12.  Why?  Because it hurts, that's why.  Then he takes nearly a month off, comes back for 16 carries, and follows it up with 4 carries.  Why?  Because it hurts, that's why.  Then he gets 10 carries in the biggest game of his life?

Now here's the fun part - you're gonna have to draft him without seeing him perform in the preseason, because he can't afford to waste whatever he has left in those knees.  Also, you are going to be told he's fine by every Rams trainer and coach, because it's their job.  I will be passing him up for sure, unless he falls to about the 6th round, which he won't.  He is standing at the cliff's edge, but he is a trooper.  I can only imagine how sore he is after a game.

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Tanner and Winz - I'm glad that you two feel this way.

I would take Gurley mid-second in a dynasty, but if so, I'll reach a little bit to have Henderson cooling his wheels and taking over some day, sooner or later.

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33 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

Some telling stats...

- Weeks 1-8 he averaged 21 carries, then it dropped to 14 for the next 3 weeks, then a spike back up to 23 for a week.  Why the spike?  Because they had a bye week and he got 2 weeks rest.  The following two weeks he went back down to 11, followed by 12.  Why?  Because it hurts, that's why.  Then he takes nearly a month off, comes back for 16 carries, and follows it up with 4 carries.  Why?  Because it hurts, that's why.  Then he gets 10 carries in the biggest game of his life?

Now here's the fun part - you're gonna have to draft him without seeing him perform in the preseason, because he can't afford to waste whatever he has left in those knees.  Also, you are going to be told he's fine by every Rams trainer and coach, because it's their job.  I will be passing him up for sure, unless he falls to about the 6th round, which he won't.  He is standing at the cliff's edge, but he is a trooper.  I can only imagine how sore he is after a game.

This is a good post,.  Even though it is in no way what I want to see, it is tough to dispute what you are pointing out.  Still hope like heck that you are coming to the wrong conclusion, but its a difficult position to defend.

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1 hour ago, TheWinz said:

Some telling stats...

- Weeks 1-8 he averaged 21 carries, then it dropped to 14 for the next 3 weeks, then a spike back up to 23 for a week.  Why the spike?  Because they had a bye week and he got 2 weeks rest.  The following two weeks he went back down to 11, followed by 12.  Why?  Because it hurts, that's why.  Then he takes nearly a month off, comes back for 16 carries, and follows it up with 4 carries.  Why?  Because it hurts, that's why.  Then he gets 10 carries in the biggest game of his life?

Now here's the fun part - you're gonna have to draft him without seeing him perform in the preseason, because he can't afford to waste whatever he has left in those knees.  Also, you are going to be told he's fine by every Rams trainer and coach, because it's their job.  I will be passing him up for sure, unless he falls to about the 6th round, which he won't.  He is standing at the cliff's edge, but he is a trooper.  I can only imagine how sore he is after a game.

He could’ve been hurt last year and will be better with 7 months off. Not saying will happen but is possible.

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4 hours ago, Tool said:

He could’ve been hurt last year and will be better with 7 months off. Not saying will happen but is possible.

He did. Week one, played through it and it got progressively worse. Then likely really got hurt again in the Chiefs game, that one was a bad hit that at the time had me thinking his season was done. Waldman recently has gone as far a saying he likely sustained some ligament damage from that hit (if I remember correctly he thinks it was PCL).

My guess is it’s both.  His knee clearly has some arthritis that will shorten his career  but he also took some hits last year that likely did some damage.  He carries some risk for sure but the upside is enormous and if he get through the season without taking one of those bad knee hits I’m betting he has a top 5 RB year still.  

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On 7/1/2019 at 6:08 PM, dkp993 said:

He did. Week one, played through it and it got progressively worse. Then likely really got hurt again in the Chiefs game, that one was a bad hit that at the time had me thinking his season was done. Waldman recently has gone as far a saying he likely sustained some ligament damage from that hit (if I remember correctly he thinks it was PCL).

My guess is it’s both.  His knee clearly has some arthritis that will shorten his career  but he also took some hits last year that likely did some damage.  He carries some risk for sure but the upside is enormous and if he get through the season without taking one of those bad knee hits I’m betting he has a top 5 RB year still.  

I remember that play in the chief’s game.  I honestly thought he’d blew out his knee.  During the game and the week after I kept waiting for the shoe to drop. 

I feel the same as you on his outlook. 

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2 hours ago, Andrew74 said:

I remember that play in the chief’s game.  I honestly thought he’d blew out his knee.  During the game and the week after I kept waiting for the shoe to drop. 

I feel the same as you on his outlook. 

Yup.  Was watching it and thought he was done for the year.

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3 hours ago, Alex P Keaton said:

Yup.  Was watching it and thought he was done for the year.

Yeah, I thought it was more of an ankle twister than a knee injury (if I recall, his ankle/foot got twisted under the tackler as he hit the ground) but either way, that moment was a critical one that changed the rest of the season for Gurley and the Rams. 

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no clue how to draft this guy.  he's going to win or lose a lot of people leagues this year.

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4 hours ago, Deamon said:

no clue how to draft this guy.  he's going to win or lose a lot of people leagues this year.

Agreed.  He's a complete wildcard.  He is a tough guy and a competitor.  But did we get a sneak preview of 2019 at the end of 2018?  I ain't buying McVay's coach speak.  In LA's final 7 games (which includes the postseason), Gurley played in 5 of them, averaging 10.6 carries.  In his first 12 games, he averaged 19.4 carries.  Todd is a TD machine, but there is no way he can return value with 10 carries a game, unless he is either drafted much later than his ADP, or becomes a pass-catching RB like Kamara.  I wouldn't buy a new car without test driving it, and I won't draft Gurley at his ADP without seeing for myself.  It's a catch-22 as we all know, because just like religion, you're gonna have to have faith without proof.

As for his off-season weight loss to save his knees, he was already one of the lightest for a workhorse his size (6'1" and low 220's).  I can see why he would want to lose weight to save his knees, but it's not a good sign for continued volume.  I ask myself, why exactly did they draft Darrell Henderson, the 3rd overall RB?  And why did they trade the 94th and 99th picks to move up to 70th?  Why would a team be so aggressive to nab an early RB if they already have their expected workhorse getting 300 touches?  Actions speak louder than words.

For me, I will draft a safe guy like Leonard Fournette.  :D

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1 hour ago, TheWinz said:

Agreed.  He's a complete wildcard.  He is a tough guy and a competitor.  But did we get a sneak preview of 2019 at the end of 2018?  I ain't buying McVay's coach speak.  In LA's final 7 games (which includes the postseason), Gurley played in 5 of them, averaging 10.6 carries.  In his first 12 games, he averaged 19.4 carries.  Todd is a TD machine, but there is no way he can return value with 10 carries a game, unless he is either drafted much later than his ADP, or becomes a pass-catching RB like Kamara.  I wouldn't buy a new car without test driving it, and I won't draft Gurley at his ADP without seeing for myself.  It's a catch-22 as we all know, because just like religion, you're gonna have to have faith without proof.

As for his off-season weight loss to save his knees, he was already one of the lightest for a workhorse his size (6'1" and low 220's).  I can see why he would want to lose weight to save his knees, but it's not a good sign for continued volume.  I ask myself, why exactly did they draft Darrell Henderson, the 3rd overall RB?  And why did they trade the 94th and 99th picks to move up to 70th?  Why would a team be so aggressive to nab an early RB if they already have their expected workhorse getting 300 touches?  Actions speak louder than words.

For me, I will draft a safe guy like Leonard Fournette.  :D

Yeah at least with a guy like Fournette you know he’s going to get hurt.  Lol. 

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1 hour ago, TheWinz said:

I ask myself, why exactly did they draft Darrell Henderson, the 3rd overall RB?  And why did they trade the 94th and 99th picks to move up to 70th?  Why would a team be so aggressive to nab an early RB if they already have their expected workhorse getting 300 touches?  Actions speak louder than words.

For one, I think they realize they made a mistake not giving Gurley more breathers in the past. Also, they have wanted a change-of-pace guy, and hoped Lance Dunbar would be that guy, but he couldn't stay healthy. They are hoping Henderson will be that guy. They love to run the ball, and having versatility in your backfield is a plus. If Gurley's knee gets aggravated, Brown can handle his duties, and meanwhile Henderson can play his part as the change-of-pace RB. Who knows if Henderson will even acclimate well into the NFL, but moving up in the draft to get that c-o-p guy they feel they have been looking for wasn't necessarily a red flag for Gurley.

Edited by simey

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3 minutes ago, simey said:

For one, I think they realize they made a mistake not giving Gurley more breathers in the past. Also, they have wanted a change-of-pace guy, and hoped Lance Dunbar would be that guy, but he couldn't stay healthy. They are hoping Henderson will be that guy. They love to run the ball, and having versatility in your backfield is a plus. If Gurley's knee gets aggravated, Brown can handle his duties, and meanwhile Henderson can play his part as the change-of-pace RB. Who knows if Henderson will even acclimate well into the NFL, but moving up in the draft to get that c-o-p guy they feel they have been looking for wasn't necessarily a red flag for Gurley.

I guess we differ just a little bit, because I see Henderson as a possible workhorse with good receiving chops.  He isn't just a CoP, he has the package to be a 3-down back.  He is a pretty solid guy, but I don't know his exact height and weight.  I have seen either 5'8" or 5'9" and 200 to 208.  I would expect him to add a few more pounds.  You may be right though - perhaps they jumped up because they are not so confident in Malcolm Brown as a backup.  

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2 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

I guess we differ just a little bit, because I see Henderson as a possible workhorse with good receiving chops.  He isn't just a CoP, he has the package to be a 3-down back.  He is a pretty solid guy, but I don't know his exact height and weight.  I have seen either 5'8" or 5'9" and 200 to 208.  I would expect him to add a few more pounds.  You may be right though - perhaps they jumped up because they are not so confident in Malcolm Brown as a backup.  

I think Brown is the backup, and Henderson is the COP.  If Gurley misses time, I suspect something like a 60/40 split for Brown.  Unless Henderson REALLY looks special on the field (which is clearly a possibility - see Alvin Kamara who I also think was viewed as a COP type).  If you look at his measurables, the comps are mostlyCOP backs.  One of Browns comps is Gurley.

Henderson - https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/darrell-henderson

Brown - https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/malcolm-brown

 

Here is Kamara just for comparison's sake.  Has some size on Henderson, and he is still on the smaller side for HBs.

https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/alvin-kamara

 

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14 minutes ago, simey said:

For one, I think they realize they made a mistake not giving Gurley more breathers in the past. Also, they have wanted a change-of-pace guy, and hoped Lance Dunbar would be that guy, but he couldn't stay healthy. They are hoping Henderson will be that guy. They love to run the ball, and having versatility in your backfield is a plus. If Gurley's knee gets aggravated, Brown can handle his duties, and meanwhile Henderson can play his part as the change-of-pace RB. Who knows if Henderson will even acclimate well into the NFL, but moving up in the draft to get that c-o-p guy they feel they have been looking for wasn't necessarily a red flag for Gurley.

 

1 minute ago, TheWinz said:

I guess we differ just a little bit, because I see Henderson as a possible workhorse with good receiving chops.  He isn't just a CoP, he has the package to be a 3-down back.  He is a pretty solid guy, but I don't know his exact height and weight.  I have seen either 5'8" or 5'9" and 200 to 208.  I would expect him to add a few more pounds.  You may be right though - perhaps they jumped up because they are not so confident in Malcolm Brown as a backup.  

Having obsessively followed the Rams most of my life (ie reading every once of material I can find) I think it’s a bit of both.

McVay has always wanted a strong change of pace guy for his offense and has just missed out on the guys he’s wanted to draft the past 2 years.  But it’s also clear there something there with Gurley’s knee and they can’t bank on the amount of reps they’ve gotten in the past.  So with both of those factors (missing out on their guys in the draft and Gurley’s issue) they made sure that they secured Henderson this year. 

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I think at this point they are going to severely manage his workload to get all they can out of that contract.  

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On 7/20/2019 at 6:59 PM, Gottabesweet said:

I think at this point they are going to severely manage his workload to get all they can out of that contract.  

This season and next are the only big dead cap hits left

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NFL.com's Steve Wyche reports Todd Gurley wants to play around 218 pounds this season after usually checking in near 224.

Wyche also said he's spoken to people "with the Rams and around Todd Gurley," and that no one expects a drop off in his production. In the same breath, Wyche also said the Rams are expected to spell Gurley more in 2019, which would necessarily mean a drop off. Mothballed all offseason, Gurley will once again sit out the entire preseason. Aside from breadcrumbs like this, fantasy owners could mostly be flying blind when it comes to Gurley's true regular season usage.

SOURCE: NFL.com

Jul 23, 2019, 3:22 PM ET

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Todd Gurley will practice on Saturday.

Cooper Kupp (ACL) will also be on hand for the start of training camp Saturday. As beat reporter Gary Klein of the Los Angeles Times notes, both will have their workloads "carefully managed." A large portion of the fantasy community has faded Gurley in the wake of his ongoing knee issues, conveniently forgetting that the 24-year-old earned All-Pro status while amassing 21 touchdowns last season. The risk is there, but if Gurley plays to the level he did in 2018, he could end up being a massive bargain at his current second-round ADP.

SOURCE: Gary Klein on Twitter

Jul 26, 2019, 4:10 PM ET

 

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