Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I can't imagine how much my head would be spinning on Sunday mornings with 30+ leagues.1. You’ve done 30+ real drafts before Aug 1st?That seems like...a lot. Anyway....
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
[Dynasty] Todd Gurley (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter tdmills
- Start date
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Or a lot of teams that miss the playoffs because he plays games part time & is maddeningly inconsistent.
I think a better prediction is that he’ll put up as many points on people’s bench as he does in their lineup.
those drafting him with RB1 expectations will likely be disappointed by the RBBC. Those drafting him with RB2+upside expectations will have a chance to see return on investment.
Those avoiding him altogether to grab a more reliable 14th overall player will have a better shot at the playoffs, IMO.
I’m fully prepared to be wrong about this. It could happen. And I’m usually a guy who believes in acceptable risk/reward.
Having suffered Gurley’s second half last season I don’t see the juice being worth the squeeze here.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
dkp993
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Imagine the conflicts play to play. And I play IDP in my main league adding even more conflicts!
I think if someone plays in 30-40-50 leagues, one can only look at scores at the end of the day to see wins/losses.
To me that removes the “enjoyment of the game of football” from “playing fantasy football” which would be awful. I complain about refs & playcalling & boneheaded player decisions, sure - but I always do it from a place of love of the game.
When one is that conflicted there’s only FFB. There’s just no way possible to enjoy watching a game when the same QB/WR combo helps you & hurts you & the LB makes a tackle/FF to help/hurt you.
i couldn’t do it.
-jb-
Footballguy
Yep. As time goes on, I like him at his ADP - but have a feeling it will creep 1/4 round forward or half a round back once the bullets fly for my leagues.
Bigboy10182000
Footballguy
Too much is being made of the RBBC as it stands today IMO. Malcom Brown hasn’t looked like anything special and while I liked Henderson in college he had to prove he’s not Ronald Jones before I start to consider him a threat. By all account Gurley looks good and quotes today say he looks completely healthy and showing no affects of the injury a year ago.
If his ADP is around the turn or later he’s an easy choice.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
If I had a nickel for every time I’ve been on your side of this argument, I’d have a f**kload of nickels.
I don’t think it’s all about Gurley’s status, or even the abilities of his RBBC-mates.
it’s what the team has said about keeping him healthy by limiting his workload.
If I hear differently before I draft I’ll change my opinion about it, but without feature back touches, I’m not gonna expect feature back production.
the Rams don’t GAF about our fantasy teams. They want Gurley healthy for the playoffs.
-jb-
Footballguy
The guys around him at current ADP:
Mixon
Cook
Gordon
Williams
Chubb
Do you see him finishing far below these guys? Gordon's situation is obviously an exception.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Who are the wide receivers in that range?
In my opinion, cook is going to be a beast this year. I also like Mixon at that ADP.
I think it’s gonna be really easy to look at Todd Gurley with optimism. He’s healthy right now, the rams are a great team, his upside is unquestionable which is why he was the number one overall pick for the last couple years. But if you look at his injury, I think there’s equal reason for pessimism. It’s the sort of injury that will only get worse with more usage, with no chance of getting better.
Sure, he might stay healthy all year. He also might play three games and have his arthritic knee act up, causing him to miss time.
If the Rams have their way, his touches will be limited so that doesn’t happen.
Either way, he certainly not going to be the kind of workhorse back that the optimism surrounding him among some in the fantasy community would suggest.
He could definitely be a make or break player. At this point I think it’s much harder to know which that is then some folks are willing to admit to themselves.
Bigboy10182000
Footballguy
Seems like you’re just ok with being late to the party and that’s fine.
This is the time when you hear a LOT of BS from teams. Players are gonna be used this way or that way, others are in the best shape ever etc. We’re as good as the info we spin to our liking I suppose. My main point is that the Rams may have a plan for resting him but if Brown is just Brown and Henderson is Ronald Jones those guys won’t see the field much. Especially if Gurley is completely healthy.
Conan Troutman
Footballguy
The latter part seems to be the bigger problem for me. If he's not playing, I can simply start someone else. But if he gets benched after 10 touches either because his knee acts up or the Rams are ahead three scores and want to give him some rest, those are the kind of things that can ruin your season with some bad timing. At his current ADP, I'll let someone else deal with those headaches.
-jb-
Footballguy
Tyreek, Juju, AB. This starts to drift into a late spot draft theory convo which is great. To your point, going WR/WR from the late spot could be good...but you need to hit on the likes of Jacobs, Henry, Montgomery, Lyndsey, Ingram.
-jb-
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
That’s my thought exactly.
But if Cook is there I likely go Cook/WR1 over Cook/Gurley.
and i’ll be ok with that.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
While many other things are up for debate, this one isn’t - he won’t be completely healthy: he has an arthritic knee.
I’ve heard a number of athletes comment on this injury. It’s about pain management & maintenance/rest/workload.
he won’t be completely healthy all year. That’s a known factor, and why he’s a huge risk, IMO.’
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Perfectly said. That’s a huge concern. That’s part of the “workload management” issues.
Losing games because your RB is getting rest in a 30-3 game is painful.
Bigboy10182000
Footballguy
I suppose it depends on the person. I’m 41 and have arthritis in both knees and still put up 5 miles a day and they don’t even swell up. I’m sure he has around the clock use of pain management as well....especially before games lol
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Then you’re tougher than Todd Gurley, because last year he missed significant time down the stretch including the playoffs and Super Bowl.
Bigboy10182000
Footballguy
Maybe I missed it but was that confirmed to be because of arthritis? I thought the hit he took sprained his knee. At least that’s how I took it after he didn’t have off-season knee surgery.Then you’re tougher than Todd Gurley, because last year he missed significant time down the stretch including the playoffs and Super Bowl.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
It's actually just the opposite. If you're in enough leagues, eventually every play that kills you in one league helps you somewhere else. You're actually freed from being invested in any one guy, because it's not about that one guy and you can stop watching the stat page and just enjoy the plays. Tally it up at midnight.
Raptors409
Footballguy
I think I finally figured out the puzzle. Gurley’s rushing attempts will stay the same but his receptions will go down.
They can justify having Gurley on the bench in passing situations by bringing in a guy who could be a high level satellite back.
They can justify having Gurley on the bench in passing situations by bringing in a guy who could be a high level satellite back.
matuski
Footballguy
Why do it at all then, just don't invest in any players, stop watching the stat page and enjoy the plays?
Fantasy football for the non addict level player adds interest to the game by adding enjoyment to games, players, and plays you otherwise wouldn't bother watching.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I have over 30 as well this offseason. All but two are best ball so I am not managing a ton on Sunday mornings. I have two FBG championship teams and one more I plan to do later this month. I have seen Gurley go as late as 2.12. Which for people who love the value of Gurley in the 2nd, that is crazy good. That is pairing Gurley with Barkley.
Last edited by a moderator:
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Agreed. Yeah I get tons of enjoyment from watching great games and plays. I tend to set my lineups and mostly forget. Close fantasy matchups on MNF are the big exception.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Most recent $350 FBG I was in last week he went 2.10.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
At the time it was kept close to the vest. They kept saying sore, questionable.
In the off-season it came out that he was dealing with an arthritic knee.
FFB community assumed it was a knee sprain.
dkp993
Footballguy
No chance. That means your drafting out of the 3 hole so you likely got Zek or Kamara. The chance to pair Gurley up with that is too great to pass up. The dude isn’t dead.
dkp993
Footballguy
It’s HIGHLY likely it was both. There’s almost a 100% certainty his knee has some level of arthritis, it come with the territory. But he also likely hurt it in that chiefs game and gutted it out the rest of the season. Him not resting to heal as he should have exaggerated the issue at the end of the season.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
I’m looking forward to three more weeks of pearl clutching since he won’t play in PS. By the time we draft (August 25) 2nd round is a lock & 3rd a possibility.
We now return you to your regularly scheduled fear mongering.
TheWinz
Footballguy
I will concede his knee sprain played a part in his lack of usage at the end of the season and throughout the playoffs. But the decision to draft a high RB had absolutely nothing to do with a knee sprain, and everything to do with a chronic issue that will only get worse. The Rams aren't going to say they regret making Gurley the highest paid RB ever, but their actions tell a different story. He just turned 25 a few hours ago (Happy Birthday, Todd) and should be in the prime of his career. Some RB's can play at a workhorse level up to and past the age of 30, but Gurley isn't one of them.
- Odds on Todd having a 350-touch season = next to none
- Odds on Todd having a 300-touch season = slim, with very inconsistent usage each week, and likely entire missed games
- Odds on Todd having a 250-touch season = good, with inconsistent usage each week, and likely riding the exercise bike in blowout games
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I suspect it will be the opposite. Folks like you will be driving his price up for the next three weeks until he say 10th or 12th overall pick. Absence of any evidence will equal proof to y’all that he’s fine. Then you’ll draft him as your number one running back, and get six points from him game one.BobbyLayne said:
Not a guarantee of course, just an example of how this could go horribly wrong for Pollyannas.
Determining a level of risk with a known injured player and discussing whether or not that level of risk is acceptable and at what point isn’t “fear mongering” it’s part of quality fantasy football discussion.
These are the debates that help our community. Yelling that the sky is falling or pretending that the sun is always shining just because you like good weather doesn’t help anyone.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I think this is pretty fair. And I certainly wouldn’t call it “the sky is falling“ mentality. Seems realistic to me.TheWinz said:
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I just heard on the radio on the way to my market that today is also Tom Brady‘s birthday.
Not really topic relevant, but a fun coincidence that both he and Gurley share a birthday
Not really topic relevant, but a fun coincidence that both he and Gurley share a birthday
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Would you judge that there’s a range of possibilities for Gurley in 2019, or only one, and it’s not good?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’ve said a few times that there’s a range of possibilities.
The most likely, IMO, is what I opined in my original post in here - that he’ll be maddeningly inconsistent, and that his end of year stats will paint a much different picture than his game to game stats. IMO he’ll suffer from the team wanting to rest him for the playoffs regardless of his health. In blowouts he’ll be on the bike while others do the garbage time cleanup work. He may lose receptions to a scat back type as well.
The highs & lows will resemble RB3 production more than RB1 or 2.
And could be plenty of weeks where Gurley blows up someone’s bench because they couldn’t trust him in a must-win.
Or Gurley will be the steal of the draft at the end of the 2nd round.
that & anything in between is possible.
But when evaluating for my teams, I think he carries substantial risk. More than some here are willing to admit.
Last edited by a moderator:
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
RB3? From 2018 we’re talking Jalen Richard (RB29) / Peyton Barber (RB31) type production.
Interesting.
Interesting.
dkp993
Footballguy
Don’t completely agree with the bolded statement. While his knee probably played a part of it it most certainly didn’t play into the majority of the decision. McVay has always wanted a complementary back to go with Gurley (think Dunbar in year one) and they’ve said as much for a while. Apparently they’ve had guys high on their board the last few drafts but they’ve gotten swooped up before they could grab them. This year they weren’t going to let that happen. Did the knee likely push the urgency of that decision, almost certainly, but it wasn’t reason for it. Remember McVay was the OC for the Chris Thompson break out.TheWinz said:
I do agree that the likelihood of 300+ touches is slim to none but I also think he can still be a top 10 (I’m calling top 5) back with a reduced workload. The goods news is we’re all going to find out shortly.
dkp993
Footballguy
Lol.
I know you’re joking but as QB’s can’t get touched anymore TB could very well become a check down king at 50 for some team in need.
Not sure I’d bet against it at this point.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I said “the lows” could resemble RB3 nmbers. Don’t take my comment out of context.
Imagine if you will: it’s week 8. The Rams are 6-1. They throw 2 TD, score a defensive TD & have 3 FGs in the first half. Their defense is stifling. They’re up 30-0 headed into the second half.
At that point Gurley has 6 carries for 47 yards & 1 reception for 17 yards.
He’s benched in the 2nd half to protect his health for the inevitable playoff push.
RB3 production still sound unrealistic that week?
while perhaps an extreme example, it will probably happen.
Last year the prospect of owning Gurley headed into a second half of a blowout was awesome - 20 more touches, 150+APY/2 TD game.
This year it might be crickets.
Its hard to predict the big picture with Gurley right now. It sure sounds like this could be a more likely scenario than “bell cow blowout” Gurley though.
Last edited by a moderator:
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Right - the lows. The point was inconsistency.
Apologies if that was poorly phrased. Seemed clear when I typed it.
Apologies if that was poorly phrased. Seemed clear when I typed it.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
This is for sure Gurley’s upside.
and while it’s cliche to say “every player is one bad hit away”, I feel when there’s a pre-existing condition it ups that risk more than a little.
If Gurley gets a little banged up on that balky knee, I could see a 1-2 week cautionary period, even with just a bruise.
i feel like I’m cautious about Gurley’s projections because the Rams seem like they’re gonna be cautious with Gurley.
But the upside is totally legit, even with ~250 touches.
dkp993
Footballguy
This is certainly within the range of possibilities, but outside the top 4 backs this year who’s doesn’t have this within the range?I said “the lows” could resemble RB3. Umbers. Don’t take my comment out of context.
Imagine if you will: it’s week 8. The Rams are 6-1. They throw 2 TD, score a defensive TD & have 3 FGs in the first half. Their defense is stifling. They’re up 30-0 headed into the second half.
At that point Gurley has 6 carries for 47 yards & 1 reception for 17 yards.
He’s benched in the 2nd half to protect his health for the inevitable playoff push.
RB3 production still sound unrealistic that week?
while perhaps an extreme example, it will probably happen.
Last year the prospect of owning Gurley headed into a second half of a blowout was awesome - 20 more touches, 150+APY/2 TD game.
This year it might be crickets.
Its hard to predict the big picture with Gurley right now. It sure sounds like this could be a more likely scenario than “bell cow blowout” Gurley though.
At 2.10 (the example a few posts up) that is baked into whomever RB you draft but no one has the upside (and likelihood of that realized upside) then Gurley has there, not even close. So give me Zeke or Kamara paired up with the number RB in the league over the past 2 yrs by a long shot and I say hell yeah.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Oh of course: but 2.10 is seemingly a lot different than 2.02, which is his current ADP.
I’m partly playing devil’s advocate in here, because the discussion helps me to value Gurley. Selfish, sure. But by getting my thoughts on him out there it’s useful to hear others counter those - with your responses I get value.
With an extremist like @BobbyLayne who seems more bent on “winning an argument” than having a discussion, less so.
we all have our take on Gurley this year - at some point, just about every play is a good pick, even the riskier ones.
I’m mostly interested in trying to figure out where that risk/reward point is with TG. (And also because I have an auction dynasty start-up draft starting tomorrow)
That seems obvious by the mere ADP alone - if we all knew the right answer he’d be a no-brainer 1.01 again.
as for Zeke, the possibility of a “months-long” holdout scares me a bit as a top 3 pick. But that’s a discussion for another topic.
Last edited by a moderator:
