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[Dynasty] Todd Gurley

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2 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

 Then you’re tougher than Todd Gurley, because last year he missed significant time down the stretch including the playoffs and Super Bowl. :shrug:

Maybe I missed it but was that confirmed to be because of arthritis? I thought the hit he took sprained his knee. At least that’s how I took it after he didn’t have off-season knee surgery.

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5 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Imagine the conflicts play to play. And I play IDP in my main league adding even more conflicts! 

I think if someone plays in 30-40-50 leagues, one can only look at scores at the end of the day to see wins/losses. 

To me that removes the “enjoyment of the game of football” from “playing fantasy football” which would be awful. I complain about refs & playcalling & boneheaded player decisions, sure - but I always do it from a place of love of the game. 

When one is that conflicted there’s only FFB. There’s just no way possible to enjoy watching a game when the same QB/WR combo helps you & hurts you & the LB makes a tackle/FF to help/hurt you.  

i couldn’t do it. 

It's actually just the opposite.  If you're in enough leagues, eventually every play that kills you in one league helps you somewhere else.  You're actually freed from being invested in any one guy, because it's not about that one guy and you can stop watching the stat page and just enjoy the plays.  Tally it up at midnight.

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I think I finally figured out the puzzle. Gurley’s rushing attempts will stay the same but his receptions will go down.

They can justify having Gurley on the bench in passing situations by bringing in a guy who could be a high level satellite back.

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21 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

It's actually just the opposite.  If you're in enough leagues, eventually every play that kills you in one league helps you somewhere else.  You're actually freed from being invested in any one guy, because it's not about that one guy and you can stop watching the stat page and just enjoy the plays.  Tally it up at midnight.

Why do it at all then, just don't invest in any players, stop watching the stat page and enjoy the plays?

Fantasy football for the non addict level player adds interest to the game by adding enjoyment to games, players, and plays you otherwise wouldn't bother watching.

 

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On 7/29/2019 at 8:17 PM, Dez said:

Except I have done over 30 real drafts already and Gurley has slipped to the 3rd round a few times and a lot of times went in the mid to late 2nd.

I have over 30 as well this offseason. All but two are best ball so I am not managing a ton on Sunday mornings. I have two FBG championship teams and one more I plan to do later this month. I have seen Gurley go as late as 2.12. Which for people who love the value of Gurley in the 2nd, that is crazy good. That is pairing Gurley with Barkley.

Edited by barackdhouse

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51 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

It's actually just the opposite.  If you're in enough leagues, eventually every play that kills you in one league helps you somewhere else.  You're actually freed from being invested in any one guy, because it's not about that one guy and you can stop watching the stat page and just enjoy the plays.  Tally it up at midnight.

Agreed. Yeah I get tons of enjoyment from watching great games and plays. I tend to set my lineups and mostly forget. Close fantasy matchups on MNF are the big exception. 

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2 hours ago, barackdhouse said:

Most recent $350 FBG I was in last week he went 2.10.

Even I probably couldn’t pass him up there. 

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4 hours ago, Bigboy10182000 said:

Maybe I missed it but was that confirmed to be because of arthritis? I thought the hit he took sprained his knee. At least that’s how I took it after he didn’t have off-season knee surgery.

At the time it was kept close to the vest. They kept saying sore, questionable. 

In the off-season it came out that he was dealing with an arthritic knee. 

FFB community assumed it was a knee sprain. 

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3 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Even I probably couldn’t pass him up there. 

No chance.  That means your drafting out of the 3 hole so you likely got Zek or Kamara. The chance to pair Gurley up with that is too great to pass up.  The dude isn’t dead.  

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3 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

At the time it was kept close to the vest. They kept saying sore, questionable. 

In the off-season it came out that he was dealing with an arthritic knee. 

FFB community assumed it was a knee sprain. 

It’s HIGHLY likely it was both.  There’s almost a 100% certainty his knee has some level of arthritis, it come with the territory.  But he also likely hurt it in that chiefs game and gutted it out the rest of the season.  Him not resting to heal as he should have exaggerated the issue at the end of the season.  

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1 hour ago, dkp993 said:

No chance.  That means your drafting out of the 3 hole so you likely got Zek or Kamara. The chance to pair Gurley up with that is too great to pass up.  The dude isn’t dead.  

I’m looking forward to three more weeks of pearl clutching since he won’t play in PS. By the time we draft (August 25) 2nd round is a lock & 3rd a possibility.

We now return you to your regularly scheduled fear mongering.

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1 hour ago, dkp993 said:

It’s HIGHLY likely it was both.  There’s almost a 100% certainty his knee has some level of arthritis, it come with the territory.  But he also likely hurt it in that chiefs game and gutted it out the rest of the season.  Him not resting to heal as he should have exaggerated the issue at the end of the season.  

I will concede his knee sprain played a part in his lack of usage at the end of the season and throughout the playoffs.  But the decision to draft a high RB had absolutely nothing to do with a knee sprain, and everything to do with a chronic issue that will only get worse.  The Rams aren't going to say they regret making Gurley the highest paid RB ever, but their actions tell a different story.  He just turned 25 a few hours ago (Happy Birthday, Todd) and should be in the prime of his career.  Some RB's can play at a workhorse level up to and past the age of 30, but Gurley isn't one of them.

- Odds on Todd having a 350-touch season = next to none

- Odds on Todd having a 300-touch season = slim, with very inconsistent usage each week, and likely entire missed games

- Odds on Todd having a 250-touch season = good, with inconsistent usage each week, and likely riding the exercise bike in blowout games

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5 hours ago, BobbyLayne said:

I’m looking forward to three more weeks of pearl clutching since he won’t play in PS. By the time we draft (August 25) 2nd round is a lock & 3rd a possibility.

We now return you to your regularly scheduled fear mongering.

 I suspect it will be the opposite. Folks like you will be driving his price up for the next three weeks until he say 10th or 12th overall pick. Absence of any evidence will equal proof to y’all that he’s fine. Then you’ll draft him  as your number one running back, and get six points from him  game one. 

Not a guarantee of course, just an example of how this could go horribly wrong for Pollyannas. 

Determining a level of risk with a known injured player and discussing whether or not that level of risk is acceptable and at what point isn’t “fear mongering” it’s part of quality fantasy football discussion.

These are the debates that help our community. Yelling that the sky is falling or  pretending that the sun is always shining  just because you like good weather doesn’t help anyone. 

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4 hours ago, TheWinz said:

I will concede his knee sprain played a part in his lack of usage at the end of the season and throughout the playoffs.  But the decision to draft a high RB had absolutely nothing to do with a knee sprain, and everything to do with a chronic issue that will only get worse.  The Rams aren't going to say they regret making Gurley the highest paid RB ever, but their actions tell a different story.  He just turned 25 a few hours ago (Happy Birthday, Todd) and should be in the prime of his career.  Some RB's can play at a workhorse level up to and past the age of 30, but Gurley isn't one of them.

- Odds on Todd having a 350-touch season = next to none

- Odds on Todd having a 300-touch season = slim, with very inconsistent usage each week, and likely entire missed games

- Odds on Todd having a 250-touch season = good, with inconsistent usage each week, and likely riding the exercise bike in blowout games

 I think this is pretty fair. And I certainly wouldn’t call it “the sky is falling“ mentality. Seems realistic to me. 

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I just heard on the radio on the way to my market that today is also Tom Brady‘s birthday. 

 Not really topic relevant, but a fun coincidence that both he and  Gurley share a birthday 

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27 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

 I suspect it will be the opposite. Folks like you will be driving his price up for the next three weeks until he say 10th or 12th overall pick. Absence of any evidence will equal proof to y’all that he’s fine. Then you’ll draft him  as your number one running back, and get six points from him  game one. 

Not a guarantee of course, just an example of how this could go horribly wrong for Pollyannas. 

Determining a level of risk with a known injured player and discussing whether or not that level of risk is acceptable and at what point isn’t “fear mongering” it’s part of quality fantasy football discussion.

These are the debates that help our community. Yelling that the sky is falling or  pretending that the sun is always shining  just because you like good weather doesn’t help anyone. 

Would you judge that there’s a range of possibilities for Gurley in 2019, or only one, and it’s not good?

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32 minutes ago, BobbyLayne said:

Would you judge that there’s a range of possibilities for Gurley in 2019, or only one, and it’s not good?

I’ve said a few times that there’s a range of possibilities. 

The most likely, IMO, is what I opined in my original post in here - that he’ll be maddeningly inconsistent, and that his end of year stats will paint a much different picture than his game to game stats. IMO he’ll suffer from the team wanting to rest him for the playoffs regardless of his health. In blowouts he’ll be on the bike while others do the garbage time cleanup work. He may lose receptions to a scat back type as well. 

The highs & lows will resemble RB3 production more than RB1 or 2. 

And could be plenty of weeks where Gurley blows up someone’s bench because they couldn’t trust him in a must-win. 

Or Gurley will be the steal of the draft at the end of the 2nd round.

that & anything in between is possible. 

But when evaluating for my teams, I think he carries substantial risk. More than some here are willing to admit. 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy

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RB3? From 2018 we’re talking Jalen Richard (RB29) / Peyton Barber (RB31) type production.

Interesting.

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6 hours ago, TheWinz said:

I will concede his knee sprain played a part in his lack of usage at the end of the season and throughout the playoffs.  But the decision to draft a high RB had absolutely nothing to do with a knee sprain, and everything to do with a chronic issue that will only get worse.  The Rams aren't going to say they regret making Gurley the highest paid RB ever, but their actions tell a different story.  He just turned 25 a few hours ago (Happy Birthday, Todd) and should be in the prime of his career.  Some RB's can play at a workhorse level up to and past the age of 30, but Gurley isn't one of them.

- Odds on Todd having a 350-touch season = next to none

- Odds on Todd having a 300-touch season = slim, with very inconsistent usage each week, and likely entire missed games

- Odds on Todd having a 250-touch season = good, with inconsistent usage each week, and likely riding the exercise bike in blowout games

Don’t completely agree with the bolded statement.  While his knee probably played a part of it it most certainly didn’t play into the majority of the decision. McVay has always wanted a complementary back to go with Gurley (think Dunbar in year one) and they’ve said as much for a while.  Apparently they’ve had guys high on their board the last few drafts but they’ve gotten swooped up before they could grab them.  This year they weren’t going to let that happen.  Did the knee likely push the urgency of that decision, almost certainly, but it wasn’t reason for it.  Remember McVay was the OC for the Chris Thompson break out.  

I do agree that the likelihood of 300+ touches is slim to none but I also think he can still be a top 10 (I’m calling top 5) back with a reduced workload.  The goods news is we’re all going to find out shortly.  

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1 hour ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I just heard on the radio on the way to my market that today is also Tom Brady‘s birthday. 

 Not really topic relevant, but a fun coincidence that both he and  Gurley share a birthday 

Even money on who retires first

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3 minutes ago, Tool said:

Even money on who retires first

Lol. 

I know you’re joking but as QB’s can’t get touched anymore TB could very well become a check down king at 50 for some team in need.  🤷‍♂️   Not sure I’d bet against it at this point.  

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1 hour ago, BobbyLayne said:

RB3? From 2018 we’re talking Jalen Richard (RB29) / Peyton Barber (RB31) type production.

Interesting.

I said “the lows” could resemble RB3 nmbers. Don’t take my comment out of context. 

Imagine if you will: it’s week 8. The Rams are 6-1. They throw 2 TD, score a defensive TD & have 3 FGs in the first half. Their defense is stifling. They’re up 30-0 headed into the second half. 

At that point Gurley has 6 carries for 47 yards & 1 reception for 17 yards.

He’s benched in the 2nd half to protect his health for the inevitable playoff push.

RB3 production still sound unrealistic that week?

while perhaps an extreme example, it will probably happen.

Last year the prospect of owning Gurley headed into a second half of a blowout was awesome - 20 more touches, 150+APY/2 TD game. 

This year it might be crickets. 

Its hard to predict the big picture with Gurley right now. It sure sounds like this could be a more likely scenario than “bell cow blowout” Gurley though. :shrug:

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy

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42 minutes ago, Tool said:

Even money on who retires first

Hilarious. :lol: 

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1 hour ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

The highs & lows will resemble RB3 production more than RB1 or 2. 

And could be plenty of weeks where Gurley blows up someone’s bench because they couldn’t trust him in a must-win. 

 

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5 minutes ago, BobbyLayne said:

 

Right - the lows. The point was inconsistency. 

Apologies if that was poorly phrased. Seemed clear when I typed it. 

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53 minutes ago, dkp993 said:

I do agree that the likelihood of 300+ touches is slim to none but I also think he can still be a top 10 (I’m calling top 5) back with a reduced workload.  The goods news is we’re all going to find out shortly.  

This is for sure Gurley’s upside.

and while it’s cliche to say “every player is one bad hit away”, I feel when there’s a pre-existing condition it ups that risk more than a little. 

If Gurley gets a little banged up on that balky knee, I could see a 1-2 week cautionary period, even with just a bruise.

i feel like I’m cautious about Gurley’s projections because the Rams seem like they’re gonna be cautious with Gurley. 

But the upside is totally legit, even with ~250 touches. 

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5 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I said “the lows” could resemble RB3. Umbers. Don’t take my comment out of context. 

Imagine if you will: it’s week 8. The Rams are 6-1. They throw 2 TD, score a defensive TD & have 3 FGs in the first half. Their defense is stifling. They’re up 30-0 headed into the second half. 

At that point Gurley has 6 carries for 47 yards & 1 reception for 17 yards.

He’s benched in the 2nd half to protect his health for the inevitable playoff push.

RB3 production still sound unrealistic that week?

while perhaps an extreme example, it will probably happen.

Last year the prospect of owning Gurley headed into a second half of a blowout was awesome - 20 more touches, 150+APY/2 TD game. 

This year it might be crickets. 

Its hard to predict the big picture with Gurley right now. It sure sounds like this could be a more likely scenario than “bell cow blowout” Gurley though. :shrug:

This is certainly within the range of possibilities, but outside the top 4 backs this year who’s doesn’t have this within the range?  

At 2.10 (the example a few posts up) that is baked into whomever RB you draft but no one has the upside (and likelihood of that realized upside) then Gurley has there, not even close.  So give me Zeke or Kamara paired up with the number RB in the league over the past 2 yrs by a long shot and I say hell yeah.   

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9 minutes ago, dkp993 said:

This is certainly within the range of possibilities, but outside the top 4 backs this year who’s doesn’t have this within the range?  

At 2.10 (the example a few posts up) that is baked into whomever RB you draft but no one has the upside (and likelihood of that realized upside) then Gurley has there, not even close.  So give me Zeke or Kamara paired up with the number RB in the league over the past 2 yrs by a long shot and I say hell yeah.   

Oh of course: but 2.10 is seemingly a lot different than 2.02, which is his current ADP. 

I’m partly playing devil’s advocate in here, because the discussion helps me to value Gurley. Selfish, sure. But by getting my thoughts on him out there it’s useful to hear others counter those - with your responses I get value.

With an extremist like @BobbyLayne who seems more bent on “winning an argument” than having a discussion, less so.

we all have our take on Gurley this year - at some point, just about every play is a good pick, even the riskier ones. 

I’m mostly interested in trying to figure out where that risk/reward point is with TG. (And also because I have an auction dynasty start-up draft starting tomorrow) 

That seems obvious by the mere ADP alone - if we all knew the right answer he’d be a no-brainer 1.01 again.

as for Zeke, the possibility of a “months-long” holdout scares me a bit as a top 3 pick. But that’s a discussion for another topic. ;) 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy

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I have a feeling a lot of well respected posters in this forum are going to be eating crow by the end of this season.

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Just now, Mash said:

I have a feeling a lot of well respected posters in this forum are going to be eating crow by the end of this season.

theres a lot of well respected posters in this forum? 

 

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25 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Oh of course: but 2.10 is seemingly a lot different than 2.02, which is his current ADP. 

I’m partly playing devil’s advocate in here, because the discussion helps me to value Gurley. Selfish, sure. But by getting my thoughts on him out there it’s useful to hear others counter those - with your responses I get value.

With an extremist like @BobbyLayne who seems more bent on “winning an argument” than having a discussion, less so.

we all have our take on Gurley this year - at some point, just about every play is a good pick, even the riskier ones. 

I’m mostly interested in trying to figure out where that risk/reward point is with TG. (And also because I have an auction dynasty start-up draft starting tomorrow) 

That seems obvious by the mere ADP alone - if we all knew the right answer he’d be a no-brainer 1.01 again.

as for Zeke, the possibility of a “months-long” holdout scares me a bit as a top 3 pick. But that’s a discussion for another topic. ;) 

No doubt.  As am I.  I’m also admittedly slightly biased (but only a very little honestly as I guard against that a lot in my thought processes).  

For Dynasty it’s a bit trickier as that is betting more on the long term value which is where I believe his value is most hindered.  I do own him in a Dynasty/Keeper hybrid league which is my main 20yr long league but his year over year cost is rising for me so I only had a year or 2 “value” left on him anyways.  For redraft, outside of the top 4 (which Zeke is now borderline due to the contract negotiations) I’m as comfortable with him as any.  Admittedly I’m a bit more risk/reward tolerant then some but this isn’t a life or death situation for me and I play to win so I’m not super scared of “possible” downsides.  

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35 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

theres a lot of well respected posters in this forum? 

 

Winner: best response on this topic. 🏆

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19 minutes ago, dkp993 said:

No doubt.  As am I.  I’m also admittedly slightly biased (but only a very little honestly as I guard against that a lot in my thought processes).  

For Dynasty it’s a bit trickier as that is betting more on the long term value which is where I believe his value is most hindered.  I do own him in a Dynasty/Keeper hybrid league which is my main 20yr long league but his year over year cost is rising for me so I only had a year or 2 “value” left on him anyways.  For redraft, outside of the top 4 (which Zeke is now borderline due to the contract negotiations) I’m as comfortable with him as any.  Admittedly I’m a bit more risk/reward tolerant then some but this isn’t a life or death situation for me and I play to win so I’m not super scared of “possible” downsides.  

I think this is a good approach - I’m torn between what I see as the upside of Dalvin Cook & the downside of Gurley. 

I’m not sure that’s a fair way to approach it,  but I believe Cook has monster potential at the same ADP. He’s a player I see as “on the up”, with a quality offense committed to feeding him the ball.

of course there’s injury history there as well, so some of this is recency bias & having been burned by Gurley’s 2nd half last year, it makes me less objective - which is also why bouncing ideas off other FBG’s helps.  

But all that said, the “downside” of Gurley is more about the team’s approach to keeping him in bubble wrap for the playoffs, compared to Cook, who I believe will be a real workhorse. 

I’m planning on a sizable investment of my $500 budget on Cook tomorrow. Still not sure how much yet. :shrug:

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9 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I think this is a good approach - I’m torn between what I see as the upside of Dalvin Cook & the downside of Gurley. 

I’m not sure that’s a fair way to approach it,  but I believe Cook has monster potential at the same ADP. He’s a player I see as “on the up”, with a quality offense committed to feeding him the ball.

of course there’s injury history there as well, so some of this is recency bias & having been burned by Gurley’s 2nd half last year, it makes me less objective - which is also why bouncing ideas off other FBG’s helps.  

But all that said, the “downside” of Gurley is more about the team’s approach to keeping him in bubble wrap for the playoffs, compared to Cook, who I believe will be a real workhorse. 

I’m planning on a sizable investment of my $500 budget on Cook tomorrow. Still not sure how much yet. :shrug:

If it helps with context, the league I mentioned above is an auction.  $200 budget PPR Superflex.  Gurley’s costing me $41 to keep (history of the league has top tier RB’s are in the low 60’s) and I’m doing it feeling very comfortable.  

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13 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

 

I’m planning on a sizable investment of my $500 budget on Cook tomorrow. Still not sure how much yet. :shrug:

As an addendum to my post above I have Cook valued at $40 for my league so 2.5 times that for yours would put him right at $100.  

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42 minutes ago, dkp993 said:

If it helps with context, the league I mentioned above is an auction.  $200 budget PPR Superflex.  Gurley’s costing me $41 to keep (history of the league has top tier RB’s are in the low 60’s) and I’m doing it feeling very comfortable.  

That does help a lot. Same league format, and that’s about what I was hoping to land a Gurley or Cook for, ~10% of my budget. Assuming I’m able to get a top tier young WR as well of course. 

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2 hours ago, dkp993 said:

As an addendum to my post above I have Cook valued at $40 for my league so 2.5 times that for yours would put him right at $100.  

Ouch - 20% of the budget. :doh: 

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6 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Ouch - 20% of the budget. :doh: 

Yeah I’ve done a ton of auctions over the years, RB1’s (even those on the RB2 boarder line) don’t go for 10%.  If they do I’d really like to see where the money is being spent.  It’s either a super deep league or some position/s are being overvalued.  

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38 minutes ago, dkp993 said:

Yeah I’ve done a ton of auctions over the years, RB1’s (even those on the RB2 boarder line) don’t go for 10%.  If they do I’d really like to see where the money is being spent.  It’s either a super deep league or some position/s are being overvalued.  

I’d love to come away with Cook/Mahommes but I’d probably have to drop 40% of my budget to do that. Add in a Juju & I’ve got 30% left to fill 25 more spots. :doh: 

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Projection of an extremist

15 G 226-1007-4.5-9 59 targets 44-375-2

18 touches per game, regression from his historical performance, RB9 PPR

In my 25 year league, I have the tenth pick. Drafts are a fluid thing so I mock exactly like will on 8/25; would love to take Adams / OBJ / Julio to start if (as usually happens) it’s RB heavy. But if the top 3-4 WR are gone, I’ll probably be choosing between Bell / Conner / Gurley. Don’t feel super great about any of them, as with any RB after 1.04, each has potential risk.

If I get a target hog WR1, at the 15th pick I could possibly be deciding between Gurley over Chubb, Cook or Mixon. RB-RB is def in the table as well, very comfortable taking the WRs available at the 3/4 turn. We’ll see how it plays out.

 

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5 minutes ago, BobbyLayne said:

Projection of an extremist

15 G 226-1007-4.5-9 59 targets 44-375-2

18 touches per game, regression from his historical performance, RB9 PPR

In my 25 year league, I have the tenth pick. Drafts are a fluid thing so I mock exactly like will on 8/25; would love to take Adams / OBJ / Julio to start if (as usually happens) it’s RB heavy. But if the top 3-4 WR are gone, I’ll probably be choosing between Bell / Conner / Gurley. Don’t feel super great about any of them, as with any RB after 1.04, each has potential risk.

If I get a target hog WR1, at the 15th pick I could possibly be deciding between Gurley over Chubb, Cook or Mixon. RB-RB is def in the table as well, very comfortable taking the WRs available at the 3/4 turn. We’ll see how it plays out.

 

Which WRs are compelling to you at 3/4 turn?

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30 minutes ago, -jb- said:

Which WRs are compelling to you at 3/4 turn?

Varies in mocks (& those will shift soon), but rn @ 34/39 typically:

Allen/Edelman

Cooper/Woods

Diggs/Cooks

type combos.

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43 minutes ago, BobbyLayne said:

Projection of an extremist

15 G 226-1007-4.5-9 59 targets 44-375-2

18 touches per game, regression from his historical performance, RB9 PPR.

 

Seems reasonable.  There’s arguments for above and below this but that’s a solid middle ground imo.  

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My biggest red flag with Gurley isn't his arthritic knee or his potential inconsistency.  It's how the rams handled it last season.

 

When it comes time to submit your roster and the rams are giving no clear indication of what will happen with him, week in and week out, your entire lineup will be screwed.  Your bench spots (waiver picks, fa bucks, whatever) will have to hold a third string rb just for the occasion when Gurley is out at the last minute and your backup is on bye.  If you're busy Sunday morning and don't have time to check your phone before kick off you could end up with a dud, or leaving a huge game on your bench.

Too much of a headache.

Edited by wgoldsph
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Talking about where to value Gurley... I have him in a keep 3 league and am seriously considering Hill, D Johnson and M Thomas over him.  Hill is a whole nother bag of questions in a keeper situation.  What blows up first Gurley knee or hill's temper?  

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10 hours ago, wgoldsph said:

My biggest red flag with Gurley isn't his arthritic knee or his potential inconsistency.  It's how the rams handled it last season.

 

When it comes time to submit your roster and the rams are giving no clear indication of what will happen with him, week in and week out, your entire lineup will be screwed.  Your bench spots (waiver picks, fa bucks, whatever) will have to hold a third string rb just for the occasion when Gurley is out at the last minute and your backup is on bye.  If you're busy Sunday morning and don't have time to check your phone before kick off you could end up with a dud, or leaving a huge game on your bench.

Too much of a headache.

s’what I keep saying. Gurley could be the picture of health all year, but if the Rams wanna bubble wrap him it doesn’t matter how healthy he is. 

Maybe they put a governor on his touches. Maybe if they’re way up in a blowout he sits. Maybe if they’re way down in a blowout he sits. 

There are a lot of scenarios that could cause FFB managers headaches this year without Gurley getting banged up at all. Now add a minor bump or bruise & that risk magnifies. 

Not saying it’s a guarantee, but it’s a legitimate risk. 

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I agree whole hardheartedly with both observations. Gurley is a risk. As long as you draft him knowing all the variables, he could be a fine RB2 or even a decent flex option in your lineup. But the days of him being looked at as a "#1" RB in FF are over. IMHO. Granted anything could happen. He could end up being the "miracle of FF" this year. Who knows. But I'm not gonna waste a #1 on him and I'm not sure he's worth a 2nd round pick either. Of course he won't be there after the third, because everyone has their own ideas. Which is what makes it all fun.😁

18 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

s’what I keep saying. Gurley could be the picture of health all year, but if the Rams wanna bubble wrap him it doesn’t matter how healthy he is. 

Maybe they put a governor on his touches. Maybe if they’re way up in a blowout he sits. Maybe if they’re way down in a blowout he sits. 

There are a lot of scenarios that could cause FFB managers headaches this year without Gurley getting banged up at all. Now add a minor bump or bruise & that risk magnifies. 

Not saying it’s a guarantee, but it’s a legitimate risk. 

 

Edited by Defenze
Placement of quotes

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Local radio reporting Gurley looks 100% ... and beastly.  I'm pegging him as a huge value pick if he falls.

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2 hours ago, nirad3 said:

Local radio reporting Gurley looks 100% ... and beastly.  I'm pegging him as a huge value pick if he falls.

Hope this is accurate. Nabbed him at 2.08 in a high stakes draft last week.

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