Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
tdmills

[Dynasty] Todd Gurley

Recommended Posts

The offense just doesn't look special right now.  Maybe it's a slow start to the season.  But they don't look like a guaranteed 30 points anymore. 

I think he looks explosive.  But with a reduced workload in an offense that doesn't look as good--he's just not going to get anywhere near what we hoped. 

I've got him in 1 dynasty league, I have no idea what to do with him.  If he strings together a couple good games, I'll see what I can sell for.  But I imagine most owners are skeptical enough that you aren't getting a good back or elite WR for him

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He's a much more expensive version of modern day Frank Gore for fantasy.

They aren't even looking to him in the pass game anymore. He's in blocking a lot more.

His snap counts are fine to me. No one makes a peep when Kamara's snap %s are in the 60s. Because he's being used extensively in run/pass game and a much more explosive player at this point. The fact Gurley's not even an option in pass game is most concerning. 

Edit: Dalvin Cook snap %s this season -- 67%, 72%, 60%. Gurley is seeing more than enough snaps to be fantasy relevant. He's 1) Not breaking off anything and 2) a complete afterthought in the pass game & pass blocking a lot more.

 

Edited by Craig_MiamiFL
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am a Rams fan.  A little concerned about the whole offense.  But yeah, I didn't take Gurley anywhere this year.  Actively avoided him.  Sean McVay doesn't care about fantasy football... and Gurley will be an RB3 this year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
51 minutes ago, leftcoastheel said:

I am a Rams fan.  A little concerned about the whole offense.  But yeah, I didn't take Gurley anywhere this year.  Actively avoided him.  Sean McVay doesn't care about fantasy football... and Gurley will be an RB3 this year.

As am I obviously.  I’m also very concerned about the offense as a whole right now.   Gurley looks like he always has to me but for some reason they (Goff?) are going away from a strength, throwing to Gurley out of the backfield.   For the life of me I can’t figure out why, I counted at least five times last night where Gurley came out of the backfield and was open for a dump off and Goff never even sniffed his direction.  

The play with like two minutes and 30ish seconds left in the game encompasses exactly what’s wrong with the Rams right now. All we needed was a first down to effectively end the game and it was third and one.   Why we don’t run it up the middle there for one I’ll never understand but regardless in the play Gurley leaks out of the backfield and is wide open in the middle for the easy first down and the likely possibility he breaks the run for a long one, Goff instead forces a throw down field for some reason and it’s intercepted.  He never even glanced at Gurley.  That same play the last two years gets dumped off to Gurley and he breaks it off.  

I’m not sure if It’s Goff ego at this point or McVay’s and their desire to go deep but it’s stifling the offense as a whole honestly.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, dkp993 said:

As am I obviously.  I’m also very concerned about the offense as a whole right now.   Gurley looks like he always has to me but for some reason they (Goff?) are going away from a strength, throwing to Gurley out of the backfield.   For the life of me I can’t figure out why, I counted at least five times last night where Gurley came out of the backfield and was open for a dump off and Goff never even sniffed his direction.  

The play with like two minutes and 30ish seconds left in the game encompasses exactly what’s wrong with the Rams right now. All we needed was a first down to effectively end the game and it was third and one.   Why we don’t run it up the middle there for one I’ll never understand but regardless in the play Gurley leaks out of the backfield and is wide open in the middle for the easy first down and the likely possibility he breaks the run for a long one, Goff instead forces a throw down field for some reason and it’s intercepted.  He never even glanced at Gurley.  That same play the last two years gets dumped off to Gurley and he breaks it off.  

I’m not sure if It’s Goff ego at this point or McVay’s and their desire to go deep but it’s stifling the offense as a whole honestly.

Agreed; Man I was watching the game in Santa Monica at a Cleveland-fan bar... what a mess...

I just think they're going to treat Gurley gingerly and preserve their primary investment - but he ABSOLUTELY should be getting a few more targets.  At least he got some goal line work.  Also, McVay has had several games with questionable play calling.  But to your point hard to tell if it was McVay or Goff on that one.  Just end the game guys!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, dkp993 said:

As am I obviously.  I’m also very concerned about the offense as a whole right now.   Gurley looks like he always has to me but for some reason they (Goff?) are going away from a strength, throwing to Gurley out of the backfield.   For the life of me I can’t figure out why, I counted at least five times last night where Gurley came out of the backfield and was open for a dump off and Goff never even sniffed his direction.  

The play with like two minutes and 30ish seconds left in the game encompasses exactly what’s wrong with the Rams right now. All we needed was a first down to effectively end the game and it was third and one.   Why we don’t run it up the middle there for one I’ll never understand but regardless in the play Gurley leaks out of the backfield and is wide open in the middle for the easy first down and the likely possibility he breaks the run for a long one, Goff instead forces a throw down field for some reason and it’s intercepted.  He never even glanced at Gurley.  That same play the last two years gets dumped off to Gurley and he breaks it off.  

I’m not sure if It’s Goff ego at this point or McVay’s and their desire to go deep but it’s stifling the offense as a whole honestly.

It was an interesting game with both QBs making the same mind numbing mistake over and over again.

Not long after Goff passes on an easy check-down to ice the game to instead throw downfield into heavy coverage, Cleveland has 3rd and goal from the 5 and Baker looks right past a wide open Jarvis Landry at the front of the endzone to try and force the ball into double coverage to a backup TE a few yards behind him.

I think both of these QBs just kind of stink at reading the field.  McVay is able to cover for that and scheme around it a lot better than Kitchens is, but teams are starting to figure it out.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

i was in the minority thinking that the Gurley stuff was much ado about nothing.  At this point, regardless of whether it is about preserving him or him not being effective, he's borderline bench worthy.  sad.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, -jb- said:

i was in the minority thinking that the Gurley stuff was much ado about nothing.  At this point, regardless of whether it is about preserving him or him not being effective, he's borderline bench worthy.  sad.

I was too.  I envisioned by this point folks would be kicking themselves for not remembering what a beast he was for most of the last two seasons.

  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He looks like Lamar Miller to me right now.  Gets the volume, is the clear lead dog but isnt used much in the pass game, isnt all that special in the run game, and cedes goal line carries in many cases.  Like Miller, he is a fringe RB2/3 that nobody is all that excited to have in their lineups and nobody wants to trade for.

  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, gotexansgo said:

It's a lot easier to bench a Lamar Miller tho

Totally agree, but at this point it may just be due to their names.

ETA - and the fact that Miller is broken, before someone feels the need to point that out.

Edited by ChuckLiddell

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Judge Smails said:

Really high priced and overdrafted decoy

Didn't he get the ball at least 14 times?  Hardly a decoy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The bottom line is he doesn't look like the pre-knee issues Gurley of old, but that's subjective.

Still, I'm thinking the best play is to hold Brown & see what happens.

Edited by Football Jones

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If not a load management program, then maybe a be less explosive and dynamic on offense program? Score fewer points program?

Edited by davearm
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

me after my draft: gurley and michel will carry me until melvin gordon comes back... then i'll have 3 stud RB's

me at 0-3 with least points in league: :bag:

i know this is very subjective, but he looks ordinary running with the ball. and the lack of passing game involvement is just confusing

Edited by iamkoza

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

lack of passing involvement is curious. you'd think, if anything, they would want to give him more receptions, as seems that would be less taxing on his knee

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Fool me once, shame on you.....however, I like this statement and I'm willing to give it another shot.

"I have to do better about being able to give him a chance to really get more into a rhythm than what I've enabled him to do in these first three games," McVay said.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Matt Waldman has an interesting take regarding six wide lineman. Pretty sure it’s subscriber content so wont post. Regardless he’s going to my bench for a bit. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Traded him this morning for Rivers and Lindsay.

I just can't anymore. I really needed a QB and I will take Lindsay who will be catching the ball more than Gurley this season. Good luck to his  current owners.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Payne said:

Fool me once, shame on you.....however, I like this statement and I'm willing to give it another shot.

"I have to do better about being able to give him a chance to really get more into a rhythm than what I've enabled him to do in these first three games," McVay said.

McVay is becoming the new Andy Reid. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Waldman's stuff made a lot of sense.  If McVay is serious about getting Gurley going and they go away from pounding outside zone into the strength of the defensive looks they are facing, like their scheme corrections in the 2nd half Sunday night, it will be interesting to see what happens.  I'm rolling w/ Gurley in my flex this week to see what happens against Tampa.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don’t know how anyone reads Waldman‘s latest article leads anyone to benching Gurley.  His article is pretty much a case against that

Edited by dkp993
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, dkp993 said:

I don’t know how anyone reads Waldman‘s latest article leads anyone to benching Gurley.  His article is pretty much a case against that

because mcvay...but i will probably still start him.  fml

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Quote

Lindsey Thiry @LindseyThiry

When asked if he could see a game where Todd Gurley would have 25 touches, like he often did last season, Sean McVay said: “That’s the hope.”

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He had 14 of 17 RB carries this past week.  The Browns were missing 3 starters from the defensive backfield, so the Rams passed the ball a ton.  Malcolm Brown’s touches are trending way way down.  I don’t get how this is a negative for Gurley — people are misreading this massively.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 9/24/2019 at 7:58 PM, Payne said:

May bench him for Kerryon and Mack. 

I'm rolling Chubb/Kerryon at RB this week, but considering benching Juju for Gurley at Flex.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, Alex P Keaton said:

He had 14 of 17 RB carries this past week.  The Browns were missing 3 starters from the defensive backfield, so the Rams passed the ball a ton.  Malcolm Brown’s touches are trending way way down.  I don’t get how this is a negative for Gurley — people are misreading this massively.

It’s been three weeks, all closely contested games for the Rams, and Gurley is averaging 15 carries per game.  I don’t think there’s a whole lot being misread.  I think the Rams are consciously limiting his touches.  If you feel that he’s going to jump up to 20-25 carries, then that’s your right.  But there’s now 8 consecutive games spanning two seasons where they haven’t given him more than 16 carries.  If owners aren’t concerned, they’re being willfully obtuse IMO.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, SayWhat? said:

It’s been three weeks, all closely contested games for the Rams, and Gurley is averaging 15 carries per game.  I don’t think there’s a whole lot being misread.  I think the Rams are consciously limiting his touches.  If you feel that he’s going to jump up to 20-25 carries, then that’s your right.  But there’s now 8 consecutive games spanning two seasons where they haven’t given him more than 16 carries.  If owners aren’t concerned, they’re being willfully obtuse IMO.

I am passed concerned at this point, now just accepting that I have a mid range RB2.

 

As an aside...Freeman, Bell, Gurley - all sign huge contracts, all are RBs, none appear as though they were worth it.  Everyone who was preaching that you should not overpay a RB seems like they were right.  Cowboys didnt exercise this caution with Zeke, but the Chargers nailed it with Gordon in my opinion.

Edited by ChuckLiddell

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, ChuckLiddell said:

As an aside...Freeman, Bell, Gurley - all sign huge contracts, all are RBs, none appear as though they were worth it.  Everyone who was preaching that you should not overpay a RB seems like they were right.  Cowboys didnt exercise this caution with Zeke, but the Chargers nailed it with Gordon in my opinion.

"Huge" is kind of relative.  Big contracts relative to other RBs, not really relative to other NFL players.

Devonta Freeman's contract was basically the same as guys like Golden Tate, Paul Richardson, Kyle Rudolph, Cameron Brate, Trey Burton, and Quincy Enunwa.  It's not like those guys are providing a ton more value for the same money.

Edited by FreeBaGeL

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

"Huge" is kind of relative.  Big contracts relative to other RBs, not really relative to other NFL players.

Devonta Freeman's contract was basically the same as guys like Golden Tate, Paul Richardson, Kyle Rudolph, Cameron Brate, Trey Burton, and Quincy Enunwa.  It's not like those guys are providing a ton more value for the same money.

Position is relevant.

$10m a year for a punter would be a huge contract 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Tool said:

Position is relevant.

$10m a year for a punter would be a huge contract 

Position is relevant because that's what people have been conditioned to believe without actually looking at how much value players with similar contracts provide relative to them.

A bunch of talking heads have convinced us that 5 years/$40 million for a running back is insane.  But it's really not that much money by NFL standards.  Is it really that crazy to go out and spend that money on a potentially top RB than on a backup TE or a depth WR you're going to target 40 times a season?

Yeah, a top RB sure isn't worth the same as a top QB or top WR.  But top RBs aren't getting paid OBJ or Aaron Rodgers money.  They're getting paid Quincy Enunwa or Cameron Brate money.  I don't think signing Todd Gurley for $40m and making do with Tyler Higbee as your 2nd string TE is any worse of any approach than signing Cameron Brate for $40m and making do with Peyton Barber as your starting RB.  Yeah Gurley happened to be one of 3 RBs in the last 10 years to have a degenerative knee condition before the age of 25, which is a bummer, but even with that huge outlier would you really rather have had Quincy Enunwa instead of Josh Reynolds on the roster with the money you could have saved on Gurley?

Teams spend $40m on guys that don't work out all the time, and they usually have a lot upside to their value to the team than someone like Gurley did.

Edited by FreeBaGeL

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Position is relevant because that's what people have been conditioned to believe without actually looking at how much value players with similar contracts provide relative to them.

A bunch of talking heads have convinced us that 5 years/$40 million for a running back is insane.  But it's really not that much money by NFL standards.  Is it really that crazy to go out and spend that money on a potentially top RB than on a backup TE or a depth WR you're going to target 40 times a season?

Yeah, a top RB sure isn't worth the same as a top QB or top WR.  But top RBs aren't getting paid OBJ or Aaron Rodgers money.  They're getting paid Quincy Enunwa or Cameron Brate money.  I don't think signing Todd Gurley for $40m and making do with Tyler Higbee as your 2nd string TE is any worse of any approach than signing Cameron Brate for $40m and making do with Peyton Barber as your starting RB.  Yeah Gurley happened to be one of 3 RBs in the last 10 years to have a degenerative knee condition before the age of 25, which is a bummer, but even with that huge outlier would you really rather have had Quincy Enunwa instead of Josh Reynolds on the roster with the money you could have saved on Gurley?

Teams spend $40m on guys that don't work out all the time, and they usually have a lot upside to their value to the team than someone like Gurley did.

I'm sure there are more details to the contracts than the top line #s but Brate is getting 40m for 6 years or 6.67/year. Enunwa is 36M for 4 years or 9M/year. Gurley's is 57M for 4 years or 19M/year.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Tool said:

I'm sure there are more details to the contracts than the top line #s but Brate is getting 40m for 6 years or 6.67/year. Enunwa is 36M for 4 years or 9M/year. Gurley's is 57M for 4 years or 19M/year.

 

Ah whoops, I had Devonta Freeman's contract in my head instead of Gurley's.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Tool said:

I'm sure there are more details to the contracts than the top line #s but Brate is getting 40m for 6 years or 6.67/year. Enunwa is 36M for 4 years or 9M/year. Gurley's is 57M for 4 years or 19M/year.

 

57/4= 14.25

  • Thinking 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

68 passes to 11 rushes today for the Rams.  Gurley had a fine fantasy game, so he must be fine.  Nothing to see here.  :scared:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, SayWhat? said:

68 passes to 11 rushes today for the Rams.  Gurley had a fine fantasy game, so he must be fine.  Nothing to see here.  :scared:

Yeah the game plan was absolute ####.  I’ll take the 25pts I got from him but I hated the way it came.  McVay is getting full of himself with this play calling.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, dkp993 said:

Yeah the game plan was absolute ####.  I’ll take the 25pts I got from him but I hated the way it came.  McVay is getting full of himself with this play calling.  

 

10 minutes ago, Andrew74 said:

I was just happy he got 11 targets. At least they threw the ball to him

My point is that if Gurley was Gurley, he gets more than five carries in that game.  I think there are blaring red alarms relating to his health that can no longer be explained away.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, SayWhat? said:

 

My point is that if Gurley was Gurley, he gets more than five carries in that game.  I think there are blaring red alarms relating to his health that can no longer be explained away.

M Brown didn’t get carries either.  Nobody did.  It was an insane game plan.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Alex P Keaton said:

M Brown didn’t get carries either.  Nobody did.  It was an insane game plan.

He got the same amount as Gurley, and he plays about 20% of the snaps.  This is becoming a pattern, where the Rams want to play Gurley 70% of the snaps, but want to pass on 80% of Gurley’s snaps.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, SayWhat? said:

 

My point is that if Gurley was Gurley, he gets more than five carries in that game.  I think there are blaring red alarms relating to his health that can no longer be explained away.

His health is fine.  This was play calling through and through.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, SayWhat? said:

He got the same amount as Gurley, and he plays about 20% of the snaps.  This is becoming a pattern, where the Rams want to play Gurley 70% of the snaps, but want to pass on 80% of Gurley’s snaps.  

It’s the 6/1 defense that’s stopping McVay from running.  The outside zone has been the basis for the run game the past few years.  You’ll also notice almost all the jet sweeps are gone to and we ran a ton of those the last 2 years.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.