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[Dynasty] Todd Gurley

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Lindsey Thiry @LindseyThiry

When asked if he could see a game where Todd Gurley would have 25 touches, like he often did last season, Sean McVay said: “That’s the hope.”

 

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He had 14 of 17 RB carries this past week.  The Browns were missing 3 starters from the defensive backfield, so the Rams passed the ball a ton.  Malcolm Brown’s touches are trending way way down.  I don’t get how this is a negative for Gurley — people are misreading this massively.

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On 9/24/2019 at 7:58 PM, Payne said:

May bench him for Kerryon and Mack. 

I'm rolling Chubb/Kerryon at RB this week, but considering benching Juju for Gurley at Flex.

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12 hours ago, Alex P Keaton said:

He had 14 of 17 RB carries this past week.  The Browns were missing 3 starters from the defensive backfield, so the Rams passed the ball a ton.  Malcolm Brown’s touches are trending way way down.  I don’t get how this is a negative for Gurley — people are misreading this massively.

It’s been three weeks, all closely contested games for the Rams, and Gurley is averaging 15 carries per game.  I don’t think there’s a whole lot being misread.  I think the Rams are consciously limiting his touches.  If you feel that he’s going to jump up to 20-25 carries, then that’s your right.  But there’s now 8 consecutive games spanning two seasons where they haven’t given him more than 16 carries.  If owners aren’t concerned, they’re being willfully obtuse IMO.

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1 hour ago, SayWhat? said:

It’s been three weeks, all closely contested games for the Rams, and Gurley is averaging 15 carries per game.  I don’t think there’s a whole lot being misread.  I think the Rams are consciously limiting his touches.  If you feel that he’s going to jump up to 20-25 carries, then that’s your right.  But there’s now 8 consecutive games spanning two seasons where they haven’t given him more than 16 carries.  If owners aren’t concerned, they’re being willfully obtuse IMO.

I am passed concerned at this point, now just accepting that I have a mid range RB2.

 

As an aside...Freeman, Bell, Gurley - all sign huge contracts, all are RBs, none appear as though they were worth it.  Everyone who was preaching that you should not overpay a RB seems like they were right.  Cowboys didnt exercise this caution with Zeke, but the Chargers nailed it with Gordon in my opinion.

Edited by ChuckLiddell

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18 minutes ago, ChuckLiddell said:

As an aside...Freeman, Bell, Gurley - all sign huge contracts, all are RBs, none appear as though they were worth it.  Everyone who was preaching that you should not overpay a RB seems like they were right.  Cowboys didnt exercise this caution with Zeke, but the Chargers nailed it with Gordon in my opinion.

"Huge" is kind of relative.  Big contracts relative to other RBs, not really relative to other NFL players.

Devonta Freeman's contract was basically the same as guys like Golden Tate, Paul Richardson, Kyle Rudolph, Cameron Brate, Trey Burton, and Quincy Enunwa.  It's not like those guys are providing a ton more value for the same money.

Edited by FreeBaGeL

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17 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

"Huge" is kind of relative.  Big contracts relative to other RBs, not really relative to other NFL players.

Devonta Freeman's contract was basically the same as guys like Golden Tate, Paul Richardson, Kyle Rudolph, Cameron Brate, Trey Burton, and Quincy Enunwa.  It's not like those guys are providing a ton more value for the same money.

Position is relevant.

$10m a year for a punter would be a huge contract 

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10 minutes ago, Tool said:

Position is relevant.

$10m a year for a punter would be a huge contract 

Position is relevant because that's what people have been conditioned to believe without actually looking at how much value players with similar contracts provide relative to them.

A bunch of talking heads have convinced us that 5 years/$40 million for a running back is insane.  But it's really not that much money by NFL standards.  Is it really that crazy to go out and spend that money on a potentially top RB than on a backup TE or a depth WR you're going to target 40 times a season?

Yeah, a top RB sure isn't worth the same as a top QB or top WR.  But top RBs aren't getting paid OBJ or Aaron Rodgers money.  They're getting paid Quincy Enunwa or Cameron Brate money.  I don't think signing Todd Gurley for $40m and making do with Tyler Higbee as your 2nd string TE is any worse of any approach than signing Cameron Brate for $40m and making do with Peyton Barber as your starting RB.  Yeah Gurley happened to be one of 3 RBs in the last 10 years to have a degenerative knee condition before the age of 25, which is a bummer, but even with that huge outlier would you really rather have had Quincy Enunwa instead of Josh Reynolds on the roster with the money you could have saved on Gurley?

Teams spend $40m on guys that don't work out all the time, and they usually have a lot upside to their value to the team than someone like Gurley did.

Edited by FreeBaGeL

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7 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Position is relevant because that's what people have been conditioned to believe without actually looking at how much value players with similar contracts provide relative to them.

A bunch of talking heads have convinced us that 5 years/$40 million for a running back is insane.  But it's really not that much money by NFL standards.  Is it really that crazy to go out and spend that money on a potentially top RB than on a backup TE or a depth WR you're going to target 40 times a season?

Yeah, a top RB sure isn't worth the same as a top QB or top WR.  But top RBs aren't getting paid OBJ or Aaron Rodgers money.  They're getting paid Quincy Enunwa or Cameron Brate money.  I don't think signing Todd Gurley for $40m and making do with Tyler Higbee as your 2nd string TE is any worse of any approach than signing Cameron Brate for $40m and making do with Peyton Barber as your starting RB.  Yeah Gurley happened to be one of 3 RBs in the last 10 years to have a degenerative knee condition before the age of 25, which is a bummer, but even with that huge outlier would you really rather have had Quincy Enunwa instead of Josh Reynolds on the roster with the money you could have saved on Gurley?

Teams spend $40m on guys that don't work out all the time, and they usually have a lot upside to their value to the team than someone like Gurley did.

I'm sure there are more details to the contracts than the top line #s but Brate is getting 40m for 6 years or 6.67/year. Enunwa is 36M for 4 years or 9M/year. Gurley's is 57M for 4 years or 19M/year.

 

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1 hour ago, Tool said:

I'm sure there are more details to the contracts than the top line #s but Brate is getting 40m for 6 years or 6.67/year. Enunwa is 36M for 4 years or 9M/year. Gurley's is 57M for 4 years or 19M/year.

 

Ah whoops, I had Devonta Freeman's contract in my head instead of Gurley's.

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1 hour ago, Tool said:

I'm sure there are more details to the contracts than the top line #s but Brate is getting 40m for 6 years or 6.67/year. Enunwa is 36M for 4 years or 9M/year. Gurley's is 57M for 4 years or 19M/year.

 

57/4= 14.25

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68 passes to 11 rushes today for the Rams.  Gurley had a fine fantasy game, so he must be fine.  Nothing to see here.  :scared:

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4 minutes ago, SayWhat? said:

68 passes to 11 rushes today for the Rams.  Gurley had a fine fantasy game, so he must be fine.  Nothing to see here.  :scared:

Yeah the game plan was absolute ####.  I’ll take the 25pts I got from him but I hated the way it came.  McVay is getting full of himself with this play calling.  

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38 minutes ago, dkp993 said:

Yeah the game plan was absolute ####.  I’ll take the 25pts I got from him but I hated the way it came.  McVay is getting full of himself with this play calling.  

 

10 minutes ago, Andrew74 said:

I was just happy he got 11 targets. At least they threw the ball to him

My point is that if Gurley was Gurley, he gets more than five carries in that game.  I think there are blaring red alarms relating to his health that can no longer be explained away.

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10 minutes ago, SayWhat? said:

 

My point is that if Gurley was Gurley, he gets more than five carries in that game.  I think there are blaring red alarms relating to his health that can no longer be explained away.

M Brown didn’t get carries either.  Nobody did.  It was an insane game plan.

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3 minutes ago, Alex P Keaton said:

M Brown didn’t get carries either.  Nobody did.  It was an insane game plan.

He got the same amount as Gurley, and he plays about 20% of the snaps.  This is becoming a pattern, where the Rams want to play Gurley 70% of the snaps, but want to pass on 80% of Gurley’s snaps.  

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17 minutes ago, SayWhat? said:

 

My point is that if Gurley was Gurley, he gets more than five carries in that game.  I think there are blaring red alarms relating to his health that can no longer be explained away.

His health is fine.  This was play calling through and through.  

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1 minute ago, SayWhat? said:

He got the same amount as Gurley, and he plays about 20% of the snaps.  This is becoming a pattern, where the Rams want to play Gurley 70% of the snaps, but want to pass on 80% of Gurley’s snaps.  

It’s the 6/1 defense that’s stopping McVay from running.  The outside zone has been the basis for the run game the past few years.  You’ll also notice almost all the jet sweeps are gone to and we ran a ton of those the last 2 years.  

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2 minutes ago, dkp993 said:

His health is fine.  This was play calling through and through.  

Nine consecutive games without exceeding 16 carries.  Believe that it’s a moronic play caller all you want.  With the success he’s had calling plays, I’m going to give him more credit than that.  Gurley is damaged, and the person closest to him knows that and is clearly protecting him.  That’s not a hot take at this stage.

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Quote

Todd Gurley rushed five times for 16 yards and two touchdowns in the Rams' Week 4 loss to the Bucs, adding seven catches for 54 yards on 11 targets.

Gurley scored from 13 yards out for the Rams' first score and then went in from five yards away later. He obviously did nothing else on his three other totes, but Gurley was heavily involved in the passing game on a day Jared Goff dropped back to pass 70 times. Gurley previously hadn't really been involved in the pass game this season, so it was a good notch in Gurley's belt for fantasy. This inexperienced Rams offensive line just isn't very good right now, putting Gurley in more of the RB2 range headed into Thursday night's date with the Seahawks.

Sep 29, 2019, 8:01 PM ET

 

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46 minutes ago, SayWhat? said:

Nine consecutive games without exceeding 16 carries.  Believe that it’s a moronic play caller all you want.  With the success he’s had calling plays, I’m going to give him more credit than that.  Gurley is damaged, and the person closest to him knows that and is clearly protecting him.  That’s not a hot take at this stage.

If he was protecting him because Gurley was “damaged” he would be getting Malcolm Brown much more involved who had been averaging basically 5 yards a carry going into the game. He’s just flat out not calling running plays it has absolutely nothing to do with Gurley’s health, it’s how defenses are playing the Rams right now and how McVay thinks they should attack them.  This 6/1 D has McVay shook and that coupled with the new interior O line pieces has him trying to scheme against it.  

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9 hours ago, dkp993 said:

If he was protecting him because Gurley was “damaged” he would be getting Malcolm Brown much more involved who had been averaging basically 5 yards a carry going into the game. He’s just flat out not calling running plays it has absolutely nothing to do with Gurley’s health, it’s how defenses are playing the Rams right now and how McVay thinks they should attack them.  This 6/1 D has McVay shook and that coupled with the new interior O line pieces has him trying to scheme against it.  

Yeah I think this sums it up pretty well. I am less concerned about his health over the last two weeks and more concerned with the OL and McVay. The word is out on how to slow this offense down. dkp993 is right, if health was a concern, I think Brown would get more carries. To me, seems like Gurley was getting brought along slowly like some people suggested. But now that he is getting the snaps, he has no chance on running plays and he wasn't being used in the passing game prior to yesterday. 

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He's having a good fantasy night because of the two TDs from near the goalline, but I am not impressed by his running tonight.

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44 minutes ago, az_prof said:

He's having a good fantasy night because of the two TDs from near the goalline, but I am not impressed by his running tonight.

Totally TD dependent. He is simply not a big part of the offense. 

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Todd Gurley rushed 15 times for 51 yards and two touchdowns in the Rams' Week 5 loss to the Seahawks, adding three receptions for six additional yards.

Gurley's scores came from eight and one yards out. It was a great fantasy night, but Gurley was held below 4.0 yards per carry for the fourth time in five games. Gurley's blocking has been a major problem, but the 25-year-old back has not looked the same going side to side since his injury issues set in last year. He's still not at his physical peak. Week 6 opponent San Francisco has been stout against the run through its first three games.

Note: The 2nd TD shouldn't have happened; Gerald Everett had a big gainer and was ruled down at the 1, replays showed he was in for the TD. Rams didn't challenge.

Edited by The Frankman

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Jared Goff has an ungodly 222 pass attempts thru 5 games.  I can’t see that pace continue.  At the same time, I don’t know why it started.  Even if Gurley isn’t 100%, then run more with Brown.  Find a role for Henderson.  Balance it out.

 

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20 minutes ago, Don't Noonan said:

Gurley looks fine to me

Yep, as I’ve said all season.  It’s playcalling and bad interior line play that’s the issue right now.  

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On 9/29/2019 at 8:22 PM, SayWhat? said:

Nine consecutive games without exceeding 16 carries.  Believe that it’s a moronic play caller all you want.  With the success he’s had calling plays, I’m going to give him more credit than that.  Gurley is damaged, and the person closest to him knows that and is clearly protecting him.  That’s not a hot take at this stage.

Make that ten in a row.

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No he is not the same. He had a monster hole on one of his first big runs. I felt a few of the RB's today (Chubb, Cook, etc) could have cut right and took it to the house. He seems to have lost any explosion he once had. Watching Chubb Sunday go 80 yards like a blur and then Gurley shows a lot.

That being said, he is probably the best GL back in the game on a high powered offense. He will still get plenty of opportunities and Brown appears to be losing snaps. I feel playing him in games that should be competitive is a gimme. Those games that could be blowouts and he sits, not so sure. He may get rested.

What bothers me the most is once again Goff rarely even looked at him as an option. That is discouraging.

 

Edited by Payne

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I dunno how anybody can watch him and think he looks as explosive as he did. Maybe it's a mental thing or maybe it's physical but he's not the same. Id sell high. 

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1 hour ago, shadyridr said:

I dunno how anybody can watch him and think he looks as explosive as he did. Maybe it's a mental thing or maybe it's physical but he's not the same. Id sell high. 

Heavily invested in Dynasty and hate to say it, but I agree.  The cuts arent crisp, the acceleration is not impressive.  He still runs hard and strong and he is still a good player, but he is not special anymore from what I can see.  At least not right now.

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Feels like the more they pass and get away from Gurley the worse they do. 
 

Also, he destroyed everyone in snaps last night. He’s a bit low right now IMO. 9ers, Falcons, Bengals and Steelers coming up could yield plenty of points. 

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Complaint 1:  “Gurley is losing a ton of snaps to M Brown!”

Update:  Gurley getting >80% of snaps in weeks 4-5

 

Complaint 2:   “Gurley is losing goalline touches to M Brown.”

Update:  Gurley gets all goalline work in weeks 4-5

 

Complaint 3:  “Gurley isn’t used enough in the passing game.”

Update:   Gurley targeted 11 times in week 4, and 5 times in week 5.

 

Complaint 4:  “Gurley doesn’t look explosive enough, he’s done.”

Update:    ....time will tell......

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22 minutes ago, Alex P Keaton said:

Update:    ....time will tell......

 

3 hours ago, SayWhat? said:

Make that ten in a row without exceeding 16 carries in a game.

How many games do you give him?  Five more? Ten more?  Next season?

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4 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

He was noticeably limping after one catch.

100% agree on this... after the first reception... he limped afterwards... and from there on he basically did zero cutting.. to me it was earily similar to what happened last year during the rams/chiefs game... TBH i was shocked he basically played every snap last night because he didnt look right... but he was only able to just run straight ahead.... when he was in pass pro and wasnt blocking he would just gingerly jog to the flats... 

Edited by iamkoza
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4 hours ago, shadyridr said:

I dunno how anybody can watch him and think he looks as explosive as he did. Maybe it's a mental thing or maybe it's physical but he's not the same. Id sell high

That window closed long ago. 

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He looks good.  Still worried and just don't want to see him run into the ground.  As Rams guy, I REALLY hope they involve Malcolm Brown and get Henderson going.

Give Gurley the high value touches - receptions between the 20s and RZ TD looks.  Let Malcolm grind it out with the low value touches between the 20s.  Fold in Henderson to keep the guys fresh.

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30 minutes ago, leftcoastheel said:

He looks good.  Still worried and just don't want to see him run into the ground.  As Rams guy, I REALLY hope they involve Malcolm Brown and get Henderson going.

Give Gurley the high value touches - receptions between the 20s and RZ TD looks.  Let Malcolm grind it out with the low value touches between the 20s.  Fold in Henderson to keep the guys fresh.

Your notion of low/high value touches certainly applies to fantasy football.  Not sure it translates well to how an actual NFL coach views things though.

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7 minutes ago, davearm said:

Your notion of low/high value touches certainly applies to fantasy football.  Not sure it translates well to how an actual NFL coach views things though.

It should.  Use him when you need him to make a play, not when you need 3 - 5 yards between the tackles.

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