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[Dynasty] Todd Gurley

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26 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Reading the page+ full of questions, I think I can solve the mystery here: 

the Rams are a little pass-happy, they don’t run block well right now, and the defense is banged up so badly that game-scripts aren’t anywhere near as favorable for the run game as they’ve been. 

What I saw from Gurley on TNF looked a lot like what I saw 2 years ago, though he does look a stitch slower. 

He’s just not getting as many touches because there aren’t as many touches to give. Rams getting into more shootouts, and that’s not conducive to a productive run game. And they don’t run block as well as they did 2 years ago. I don’t think his knee has anything to do with it. 

Looking forward, if not for the Everett TD that didn’t get reviewed & Gurley vultures, he would have been a 12 point play. He’s now a bit of anTD-dependent RB, because he’s not going to get the volume he needs & that line isn’t opening holes for breakaway TDs. 

I would be trying to sell high off of the TNF game, if I had him. But that’s just me. 

This I don’t get.  How are there not as many touches to give?  The Rams are running plenty of plays, Gurley is on the field a significant majority of those, and basically every game has been a close game.  

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28 minutes ago, SayWhat? said:

This I don’t get.  How are there not as many touches to give?  The Rams are running plenty of plays, Gurley is on the field a significant majority of those, and basically every game has been a close game.  

 Because the Rams seem incapable of run blocking well enough to sustain the grind it out kind of drives they had two years ago when Gurley was an absolute stud.

The types of touches he needs to get to return to that level of prominence would be 25+,  and their o-line is simply incapable of blocking well enough to support that. And they’ve shifted to a more pass-happy offense, and don’t seem to want to use him as a receiver. That may change with the injury to Cooks, but it looks more like they’ll go to the TE’s instead. 

But IMO, with the arthritic knee, the Rams are using Gurley  exactly like they said they were going to in the preseason.as such, they are not going to give him 25+ touches a game, because they believe he will break down. This was their plan, and they’ve stuck to it. So maybe the knee does have something to do with it, but in a preventative sort of way. 

not sure why anyone is surprised by it. 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy

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15 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

 Because the Rams seem incapable of run blocking well enough to sustain the grind it out kind of drives they had two years ago when Gurley was an absolute stud.

The types of touches he needs to get to return to that level of prominence would be 25+,  and their o-line is simply incapable of blocking well enough to support that. 

But IMO, with the arthritic knee, the Rams are using Gurley  exactly like they said they were going to in the preseason.as such, they are not going to give him 25+ touches a game, because they believe he will break down. This was their plan, and they’ve stuck to it.

not sure why anyone is surprised by it. 

I’ve not felt this way watching the Rams this year, nor do any metrics support that take.  Not ypc (middle of the NFL) nor offensive line rankings such as Football Outsiders (middle to high marks in nearly every measurement they rank).  

I agree that the Rams are intentionally limiting Gurley’s touches, and it’s become a detriment to their offense as it’s forcing them into a 2:1 pass to run ratio that’s simply not conducive to winning games.  If they want to keep limiting Gurley’s to a max of 16, then they need to start mixing in Brown/Henderson more than they have.

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29 minutes ago, SayWhat? said:

I’ve not felt this way watching the Rams this year, nor do any metrics support that take.  Not ypc (middle of the NFL) nor offensive line rankings such as Football Outsiders (middle to high marks in nearly every measurement they rank).  

When Gurley was a super stud they were at the top of the NFL, not the middle. 

29 minutes ago, SayWhat? said:

I agree that the Rams are intentionally limiting Gurley’s touches, and it’s become a detriment to their offense as it’s forcing them into a 2:1 pass to run ratio that’s simply not conducive to winning games.  If they want to keep limiting Gurley’s to a max of 16, then they need to start mixing in Brown/Henderson more than they have.

That’s the long and the short of it. We’re seeing eye to eye on that one. I just don’t expect that to change. It’s what they said they’d do, and they’ve done it, consistently. 

IMO if they do increase snap count it’ll mean more touches for the other guys, with Gurley’s role staying the same.

the weird thing to me is the lack of receptions. 

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It does seem a little odd that Brown is getting so few carries. He’s looked pretty good when he’s been in there. And after first game though plan was to mix him in for about 1/3 of the time. But that’s not happening not sure why exactly 

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4 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

When Gurley was a super stud they were at the top of the NFL, not the middle. 

The Rams averaged 4.3ypc in 2017.  They’re averaging 4.2ypc this year.  :shrug:

They’re simply not running the ball this year.  That’s the bottom line.

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This is really not complicated unless people are only looking at the box score.  Watching it’s extremely clear.  

-Outside zone runs and jet sweeps are being shut down with the 6/1 D.  

-Teams see what we all do that Goff isn’t as good under pressure so they are applying it, this along with weaker interior O line play is requiring Gurley to support the pass pro (something he does very well).

-Trying to figure out this 6/1 D everyone is playing McVay has gone way to pass happy.  This is likely because of the much weaker O line play vs the run and his ego.  Running up the middle is the solution but he’s not confident in it and continues to get lured into throwing deep.

-Gurley has always been TD “dependent”.  It’s been a huge part of his weekly numbers because he’s been the most prolific TD scorer in the league the past 3 yrs.  It’s just more obvious now as he’s not getting the other points he usually gets.  TD’s are what have made him truly special these last few years.  The good news is this doesn’t look to have changed because of the other points above.  

So play-calling, O line and the change in how teams are playing the Rams are the reasons.

Edited by dkp993
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28 minutes ago, dkp993 said:

This is really not complicated unless people are only looking at the box score.  Watching it’s extremely clear.  

-Outside zone runs and jet sweeps are being shut down with the 6/1 D.  

-Teams see what we all do that Goff isn’t as good under pressure so they are applying it, this along with weaker interior O line play is requiring Gurley to support the pass pro (something he does very well).

-Trying to figure out this 6/1 D everyone is playing McVay has gone way to pass happy.  This is likely because of the much weaker O line play vs the run and his ego.  Running up the middle is the solution but he’s not confident in it and continues to get lured into throwing deep.

-Gurley has always been TD “dependent”.  It’s been a huge part of his weekly numbers because he’s been the most prolific TD scorer in the league the past 3 yrs.  It’s just more obvious now as he’s not getting the other points he usually gets.  TD’s are what have made him truly special these last few years.  The good news is this doesn’t look to have changed because of the other points above.  

So play-calling, O line and the change in how teams are playing the Rams are the reasons.

There’s definite validity here.  But it’s now been ten straight games in which Gurley hasn’t exceeded 16 carries.  Ten straight teams playing a 6/1?  Ten straight games where a once “brilliant” offensive mind won’t run the ball in volume?  

Seems pretty clear watching Gurley that he isn’t Gurley.  But I guess McVay will continue to be stupefied by the purported 6/1 and keep throwing the ball 50 times per game while giving his stud back 15 carries and we’ll just call it a coach that isn’t adjusting.  Definitely has nothing to do with Gurley’s health.  No way.

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27 minutes ago, dkp993 said:

This is really not complicated unless people are only looking at the box score.  Watching it’s extremely clear.  

-Outside zone runs and jet sweeps are being shut down with the 6/1 D.  

-Teams see what we all do that Goff isn’t as good under pressure so they are applying it, this along with weaker interior O line play is requiring Gurley to support the pass pro (something he does very well).

-Trying to figure out this 6/1 D everyone is playing McVay has gone way to pass happy.  This is likely because of the much weaker O line play vs the run and his ego.  Running up the middle is the solution but he’s not confident in it and continues to get lured into throwing deep.

-Gurley has always been TD “dependent”.  It’s been a huge part of his weekly numbers because he’s been the most prolific TD scorer in the league the past 3 yrs.  It’s just more obvious now as he’s not getting the other points he usually gets.  TD’s are what have made him truly special these last few years.  The good news is this doesn’t look to have changed because of the other points above.  

So play-calling, O line and the change in how teams are playing the Rams are the reasons.


Great analysis.

He was my second round pick and has outscored my first round pick by 59 points. 

I’m happy holding him right now, plugging him in, and hoping that things change and his usage goes up. He’s only had one truly bad fantasy start.

He’s got an extra game under his belt now, so he’s listed as RB7, but he should easily remain a top 20 back fantasy scoring wise after this week, depending on what the guys do behind him. He’s virtually knotted up with Chris Carson who had his own set of question marks weeks ago but now has his arrow pointing up.

RBs that we’re drafted behind him in my draft that I wish I owned? Yes there’s a few, but there always are. I lucked out and own a few of these guys.

Aaron Jones. Kerryon maybe? Ingram. Henry. Ekeler/Gordon? 

The rest have just as many question marks as Gurley and less upside in my eyes.

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47 minutes ago, SayWhat? said:

 

The Rams averaged 4.3ypc in 2017.  They’re averaging 4.2ypc this year.  :shrug:

They’re simply not running the ball this year.  That’s the bottom line.

It’s McVay - it’s what he wants to do. He’s changed the offense to limit the touches. 

If I were a betting man, I’d bet that if they make the playoffs, they’ll suddenly commit to the ground game. 

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44 minutes ago, dkp993 said:

This is really not complicated unless people are only looking at the box score.  Watching it’s extremely clear.  

-Outside zone runs and jet sweeps are being shut down with the 6/1 D.  

-Teams see what we all do that Goff isn’t as good under pressure so they are applying it, this along with weaker interior O line play is requiring Gurley to support the pass pro (something he does very well).

-Trying to figure out this 6/1 D everyone is playing McVay has gone way to pass happy.  This is likely because of the much weaker O line play vs the run and his ego.  Running up the middle is the solution but he’s not confident in it and continues to get lured into throwing deep.

-Gurley has always been TD “dependent”.  It’s been a huge part of his weekly numbers because he’s been the most prolific TD scorer in the league the past 3 yrs.  It’s just more obvious now as he’s not getting the other points he usually gets.  TD’s are what have made him truly special these last few years.  The good news is this doesn’t look to have changed because of the other points above.  

So play-calling, O line and the change in how teams are playing the Rams are the reasons.

Yep - all of this. Less running = less volume + people are figuring out McVay’s schtick.

coaches need to adjust once they get figured out. McVay isn’t.

whether that’s by design or because he doesn’t think his team is capable of playing another way is a bit of a mystery, but especially with the injuries/deficiencies on defense, I would think they’d need to play more ball control. 

When you’re getting into 50-45 shootouts with the Bucs, you’re doing something wrong. 

Also, I think they miss Mark Barron, but that’s not really on topic. 

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21 minutes ago, VikingFrog said:


Great analysis.

He was my second round pick and has outscored my first round pick by 59 points

I’m happy holding him right now, plugging him in, and hoping that things change and his usage goes up. He’s only had one truly bad fantasy start.

He’s got an extra game under his belt now, so he’s listed as RB7, but he should easily remain a top 20 back fantasy scoring wise after this week, depending on what the guys do behind him. He’s virtually knotted up with Chris Carson who had his own set of question marks weeks ago but now has his arrow pointing up.

RBs that we’re drafted behind him in my draft that I wish I owned? Yes there’s a few, but there always are. I lucked out and own a few of these guys.

Aaron Jones. Kerryon maybe? Ingram. Henry. Ekeler/Gordon? 

The rest have just as many question marks as Gurley and less upside in my eyes.

Did you take Antonio Brown first???

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7 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Yep - all of this. Less running = less volume + people are figuring out McVay’s schtick.

coaches need to adjust once they get figured out. McVay isn’t.

whether that’s by design or because he doesn’t think his team is capable of playing another way is a bit of a mystery, but especially with the injuries/deficiencies on defense, I would think they’d need to play more ball control. 

When you’re getting into 50-45 shootouts with the Bucs, you’re doing something wrong. 

Also, I think they miss Mark Barron, but that’s not really on topic. 

I wouldn’t say he not adjusting, he most certainly is.  He’s not just adjusting as much/quickly as we’d/I’d like, but every game this year there has been a progression.  Part of the issue the last 2 games has been the D, there no question about it, the other part is the interior O line (though Havenstein has taken a big step back too for some reason).  
 

McVay is a smart and talented dude, I trust he’ll work through it and we’ll be on track soon.  

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28 minutes ago, davearm said:

Did you take Antonio Brown first???

No. I would probably be in a dark place.

I grabbed Tyreek with my first pick. Time will tell if that works out. My team is surviving without Hill and what many are considering an “underperforming” Gurley. But I’ve lost a few matchups due to those same guys. So we shall see what happens and whether I’m kicking myself at season’s end.

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For those looking to “sell high” after this week, who do you think is a comparable player to target in a trade?

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2 minutes ago, dahabi said:

For those looking to “sell high” after this week, who do you think is a comparable player to target in a trade?

Chris Carson.

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2 hours ago, SayWhat? said:

 

The Rams averaged 4.3ypc in 2017.  They’re averaging 4.2ypc this year.  :shrug:

They’re simply not running the ball this year.  That’s the bottom line.

This is very misleading. 

Gurley was at 4.9 and 4.7 ypc each of the last 2 years. 

He's at 4.2 this year and most of that was skewed by one good drive in the week 1 game. He's been sub 4ypc in 4 out of 5 games so far this year.

He was sub 4ypc in 3 games all of last year

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3 hours ago, VikingFrog said:

Chris Carson.

Funny you mention that. The Gurley owner offered him to me for Carson & I rejected it. 

I countered with Carson + Hill for CMC & he wasn’t down. He was tempted but he’d just traded a WR & couldn’t wait for Hill. 

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2 hours ago, TheDirtyWord said:

As a Carson owner, I’d be uninterested in such a swap.

Yeah, I hit “reject” quickly. Gimme the volume. Good things happen with volume guys. 

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6 minutes ago, Football Jones said:

Did Gurley get injured last week?

Got a notification he was DNP today with a quad injury.

Gurley owner with everything going wrong for my point to the shirt team in 2019.

Just dropped Malcolm Brown, so knowing that, this is serious.

Honestly though, I follow the guy on Instagram and he was out reading with kids all day for charity. I know that doesn’t help with injury report but maybe he got a day off? He’s a good follow on Instagram. Seems like a pretty humble and legit dude compared to some players out there.

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Ugh. Last two games they were reverting back to 2018 form with gurley handling nearly all snaps and touches. This injury scare probably gets things back to the 2 out of 3 drives pattern that was employed earlier this season.

 

You can think about it this way... It's been a full week since their game, so if this was a regular week gurley may have been dnp all three days... To me the dnp nearly a full week after the game is very concerning

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2 hours ago, Football Jones said:

Did Gurley get injured last week?

Got a notification he was DNP today with a quad injury.

Rotoworld take:

Quote

Todd Gurley (quad) did not practice Wednesday.

Coach Sean McVay said Gurley is day to day with a thigh contusion. He'll have to get in at least a limited practice by Friday to have a real shot at suiting up against the 49ers this week. Gurley's handcuff Malcolm Brown needs to be owned in most leagues just in case Gurley can't get ready in time. This quad injury isn't directly related to the knee arthritis that's arguably slowed him down in 2019, but it's another issue worth monitoring.

SOURCE: Lindsey Thiry on Twitter

Oct 9, 2019, 7:32 PM ET

 

 

Rams RB Todd Gurley day-to-day with thigh contusion

Edited by Faust
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Yeah I was going to say, "quad injury" sounds suspiciously like "knee issue that we don't want the press to make a big story out of".

Edited by FreeBaGeL
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1 hour ago, DeaLerZ said:

Any updates if he is practicing today?

Quote

According to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, Todd Gurley's status for Week 6 against the 49ers is "very much up in the air."

Gurley came out of last week's Thursday night loss to Seattle with a quad injury. The team suspected it was only a minor setback, though the fact that it's still bothering him a week later (Gurley was absent from Wednesday's practice) is obviously a cause for concern. With Gurley looking iffy for Sunday, backup Malcolm Brown needs to be rostered in all formats.

SOURCE: Ian Rapoport on Twitter

Oct 10, 2019, 2:21 PM ET

 

 

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I don't understand how a quad bruise can lead to missed games.  I get that a strain can.  Now he hasn't been ruled out and coach is calling him day to day.  But I hadn't even realized that a bruise can lead to something concerning.

Edited by steelwind

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55 minutes ago, steelwind said:

I don't understand how a quad bruise can lead to missed games.  I get that a strain can.  Now he hasn't been ruled out and coach is calling him day to day.  But I hadn't even realized that a bruise can lead to something concerning.

Damian Williams missed two games this year because of this injury (or was his a different bruise?)

 

What's really weird is after gurley first catch last Thursday he seemed to be noticeably limping. Then to me, the rest of the game he didn't seem to ever make a crisp lateral cut. On passing plays if he wasn't blocking he'd gingerly fade out to the flat... Tl Dr he looked to be hurting... Yet he pretty much played every single snap that game. So perhaps it could actually be a bruise that didn't get bad until after the game?

Edited by iamkoza

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2 hours ago, steelwind said:

I don't understand how a quad bruise can lead to missed games.  I get that a strain can.  Now he hasn't been ruled out and coach is calling him day to day.  But I hadn't even realized that a bruise can lead to something concerning.

quad bruise sucks. It can take a while to heal depending on the severity. Gronk had one in the Superbowl last year: https://www.masslive.com/patriots/2019/08/retired-patriot-rob-gronkowskis-super-bowl-injury-was-so-bad-he-had-a-liter-of-blood-removed-from-leg.html

I'm not a pro athlete, but I did get a severe one playing college soccer and it took at least two weeks just to play without pain. You are basically trying to run with a giant contusion in your thigh. You lose speed, range of motion, and flexibility. It was just as bad of an injury as an ankle sprain or knee sprain, although a different kind of pain. 

Edited by TwinTurbo

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2 hours ago, steelwind said:

I don't understand how a quad bruise can lead to missed games.  I get that a strain can.  Now he hasn't been ruled out and coach is calling him day to day.  But I hadn't even realized that a bruise can lead to something concerning.

Deep thigh contusion can cost you weeks or months, especially if it gets hit in the same place again.  Also, as some have theorized, it may be a way to describe his chronic knee issue without saying the words chronic knee issue.

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1 hour ago, iamkoza said:

Damian Williams missed two games this year because of this injury (or was his a different bruise?)

 

What's really weird is after gurley first catch last Thursday he seemed to be noticeably limping. Then to me, the rest of the game he didn't seem to ever make a crisp lateral cut. On passing plays if he wasn't blocking he'd gingerly fade out to the flat... Tl Dr he looked to be hurting... Yet he pretty much played every single snap that game. So perhaps it could actually be a bruise that didn't get bad until after the game?

It's one of those injuries you may be able to play with during the game it happened. Your muscles are warmed up and the adrenaline is going and the pain may not fully kick in. After the game and the next day, you will wish it never happened and you can barely walk from the pain. 

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1 hour ago, tackle for loss said:

Anyone have the practice report today?

https://www.49erswebzone.com/articles/129192-49ers-rams-injury-report-ford-pace-gurley-talib-practice/

The #Rams turned practice into an indoor walk-through and "above-the-neck day" because of high winds around Thousand Oaks. This, combined with the short week before the Thursday game in Seattle, means they'll have only one real practice in two weeks before facing the 49ers.

 

Per Greg Beacham:

Sean McVay says Todd Gurley's bruised thigh "caught us all off-guard," since the Rams haven't played since last Thursday. McVay refuses to guess whether Gurley will play Sunday vs the Niners.

 

 

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I like how everyone thinks this is code for his knee.  Maybe he actually has a thigh bruise?  It’s like everyone is salivating over his career ending. 

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8 hours ago, Andrew74 said:

I like how everyone thinks this is code for his knee.  Maybe he actually has a thigh bruise?  It’s like everyone is salivating over his career ending. 

Or just connecting some reasonable dots. Anyone ever find video of where such a significant hit took place?  Like Gronk’s.  Should be reasonably evident if it actually occurred you’d think.

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At this point, I don't trust the Rams in regards to Gurley's injury report. You would be a fool to take them at their word. Teams have used the word "contusion" to cover a wide variety of injuries. It's nothing new. In this case, they designated a different part of his anatomy so who knows.

Could they be related? Sure, but we don't know yet.

 

Edited by Football Jones

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13 hours ago, Andrew74 said:

I like how everyone thinks this is code for his knee.  Maybe he actually has a thigh bruise?  It’s like everyone is salivating over his career ending. 

That is not at all what is going on. I own Gurley in a few leagues, but also want to get ahead of the game in a few redrafts. I have Brown but I have short benches and am trying to figure out other things as well with my roster. People are trying to discuss and figure it out. I will wait not wait for more facts before discussing, I will use the ones we have currently since that is the point to figure out the tea leaves to get ahead of the game. 

It could be a thigh bruise... but do you really believe that to be true? 

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Adding to the layers of unknown effects.... he just tweeted out that he’s being evacuated due to the fires in LA.

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1 minute ago, dkp993 said:

Adding to the layers of unknown effects.... he just tweeted out that he’s being evacuated due to the fires in LA.

:unsure:

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6 minutes ago, dkp993 said:

Adding to the layers of unknown effects.... he just tweeted out that he’s being evacuated due to the fires in LA.

I think that's the Rams covering up the knee - you know, it's a "burning pain" so using wildfires totally covers for that.

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Just now, Hankmoody said:

I think that's the Rams covering up the knee - you know, it's a "burning pain" so using wildfires totally covers for that.

Makes sense to me.  It always comes back to the knee

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2 hours ago, dkp993 said:

Adding to the layers of unknown effects.... he just tweeted out that he’s being evacuated due to the fires in LA.

Was he escorted out in a wheelchair or did he make it out on his own?

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48 minutes ago, Tool said:

Was he escorted out in a wheelchair or did he make it out on his own?

I believe they amputated his leg just above the knee prior to being wheeled out.  

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Curious on if they try and get the run going with the rookie and brown for 3rd downs/2min drill. Should be interesting to watch. As a rams fan, I'm really concerned on gurley's knee. I though this limiting his touch was just to preserve him for 20+ carries a week starting around weeks 14-15 to make a late push. But now I'm trully worried that he might be done for this year. This game is huge to for us if we start 0-2 in the division so if gurley was able to play he definitely would as we need him. But again this situation should be interesting to see how it play out. Henderson didn't look to good in preseason but watching his college film states otherwise.

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2 minutes ago, RealReactions said:

Curious on if they try and get the run going with the rookie and brown for 3rd downs/2min drill. Should be interesting to watch. As a rams fan, I'm really concerned on gurley's knee. I though this limiting his touch was just to preserve him for 20+ carries a week starting around weeks 14-15 to make a late push. But now I'm trully worried that he might be done for this year. This game is huge to for us if we start 0-2 in the division so if gurley was able to play he definitely would as we need him. But again this situation should be interesting to see how it play out. Henderson didn't look to good in preseason but watching his college film states otherwise.

Wouldn't it be Brown with Henderson as the 3rd down back?

Edited by Weebs210

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