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[Dynasty] Todd Gurley

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Just now, Rhythmdoctor said:

I appreciate your perspective. I haven’t watched a ton of Gurley since he’s been in the league. I’ve oseen a good handful but not dozens. So I appreciate your input. So in your opinion, is he the same old Gurley physically?

Thx.  
 

There’s obviously something there there,  it’s hard to argue there isn’t.  But from the eye test I don’t see anything noticeable from a burst or speed perspective, certainly nothing large enough to explain the drop of.  That’s due to a Myriad of other factors, one of those being a lightened workload

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I am hoping yesterday's increased usage is a sign of things to come.  They've been cautious so far but now they need to push the envelope a bit since they are outside of the playoffs currently.  Wishful thinking?

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10 minutes ago, worrierking said:

I am hoping yesterday's increased usage is a sign of things to come.  They've been cautious so far but now they need to push the envelope a bit since they are outside of the playoffs currently.  Wishful thinking?

It would make sense. Saving him for the playoffs doesn’t work if they don’t make it. Not advocating running him into the ground but increased usage seems to be on the horizon. 

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Funny that when Chicago was NOT running the 6-1, Gurley did great.  Then in the second half, they put in 6-1 and poof.  The same scheme every other team has used.  McVay simply hasn't figured out how to counter that scheme.  Surprised that the Bears didn't use it from the get go, considering it was originally rolled out last year by Fangio as the Rams killer.

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I hold the opinion that Gurley will be given a large workload ros. If he holds up  he could be a league winner. Hoping so as I bought him in one of my leagues for what I consider to be extremely cheap 

 

The Rams are struggling to fond an offensive identity having him on a pitch count. If they continue they will miss the playoffs. This week is an indication of a change following the bye, IMO. Not a bad time to sell if you're hurting, as he seems to have an uptick in value right now. otherwise ride this wave until he breaks down 

Edited by Dr. Dan
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1 hour ago, Dr. Dan said:

I hold the opinion that Gurley will be given a large workload ros. If he holds up  he could be a league winner. Hoping so as I bought him in one of my leagues for what I consider to be extremely cheap 

 

The Rams are struggling to fond an offensive identity having him on a pitch count. If they continue they will miss the playoffs. This week is an indication of a change following the bye, IMO. Not a bad time to sell if you're hurting, as he seems to have an uptick in value right now. otherwise ride this wave until he breaks down 

He’s on my roster and I disagree, based on first half vs second half of the last game, as well as the rest of their games this far. I still believe it comes down to whether or not the opposition believes they can beat them by removing Gurley. If they do, they know what to do (6-1 defense).  McVay seems incapable of figuring out to counter it and seems content to roll with Goff getting it done, which has obviously been met with mixed results. 
 

He’s still starting for me as I have no better options. 

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1 minute ago, -jb- said:

He’s on my roster and I disagree, based on first half vs second half of the last game, as well as the rest of their games this far. I still believe it comes down to whether or not the opposition believes they can beat them by removing Gurley. If they do, they know what to do (6-1 defense).  McVay seems incapable of figuring out to counter it and seems content to roll with Goff getting it done, which has obviously been met with mixed results. 
 

He’s still starting for me as I have no better options. 

This is a good point. it does depend on the defense. I am mostly pointing out that at this point I wo7ldnt be worried about gurleys knee as I think they are prepared to run him into the ground. 

One thing to keep in mind, of his remaining 5 games, 3 are against teams in the bottom 50% in rushing 

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Just now, Dr. Dan said:

This is a good point. it does depend on the defense. I am mostly pointing out that at this point I wo7ldnt be worried about gurleys knee as I think they are prepared to run him into the ground. 

One thing to keep in mind, of his remaining 5 games, 3 are against teams in the bottom 50% in rushing 

Ah got it. Yeah I was never worried about the knee and was happy to draft him in the second. Clearly didn’t see this scheming thing coming. 

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3 hours ago, -jb- said:

He’s on my roster and I disagree, based on first half vs second half of the last game, as well as the rest of their games this far. I still believe it comes down to whether or not the opposition believes they can beat them by removing Gurley. If they do, they know what to do (6-1 defense).  McVay seems incapable of figuring out to counter it and seems content to roll with Goff getting it done, which has obviously been met with mixed results. 
 

He’s still starting for me as I have no better options. 

While I absolutely hate it this posts is exactly how I feel. (Btw my hate is not for the poster in any way but purely due to frustration with Rams coaching).  McVay has not been able to figure out the 6-1 and this along with the O-line hot mess are the 2 driving factors in the Rams poor season so far.  I too have Gurley in my lineup and have to,  but I’m not confident at all and it almost has nothing to do with Gurley himself

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Three main issues with Gurley and none of them are Gurley.

McVay cannot game plan properly against a 6-1 defense

The OL has been bad

Goff is no threat to the defense

If McVay could figure out how to scheme against the 6-1 and the Rams kept their O-line together and Goff kept offenses honest, that would equal great things for Gurley. 

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This guy is toast. Granted, the line isn't as good and the offense generally sucks. But you can see the difference between early last year and this year.

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2 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

so much for that guarantee that Gurley finishes top 5rb

PPB

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Quote

Todd Gurley rushed six times for 22 yards in the Rams' 45-6, Week 12 loss to the Ravens.

He "added" three catches for -3 yards. Getting stomped from the opening kickoff, the Rams ran the ball eight times in this one. Gurley had arguably his best game of the season against the Bears in Week 11 with 27 touches. But if the Rams can't stay close on the scoreboard, Gurley is rendered useless. Things should be better next week in Arizona, but this Rams team is insanely bad. They're going to have trouble with Kyler Murray on a short week heading out on the road.

 

Edited by The Frankman

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On 5/24/2019 at 8:22 AM, dkp993 said:

Buy buy buy, and this is coming from a guy who was all over him being injured at the end of last year.  While the back end of Gurley’s career is likely cut short he’ll be fine for a few more years.  It’s like everyone is forgetting this guy was the best RB (FF wise) the last 2+ yrs.  

Guarantee he finishes as a top 5 RB in PPR’s.  

Update?

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1 hour ago, Dr. Dan said:

I think you mean dkp

Yep, pretty funny he and all the other Gurley fans kept reporting me when I said he was just a guy.  Might not even finish top 100 in PPR for W/R and basically ruined everyone's draft this year at his ADP.

Edited by tjnc09

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16 minutes ago, tjnc09 said:

Update?

O line fell apart and McVay can’t adjust to the 6-1 D.  Entire O has fallen apart can’t just point to Gurley.  

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15 minutes ago, tjnc09 said:

Yep, pretty funny he and all the other Gurley fans kept reporting me when I said he was just a guy.  Might not even finish top 100 in PPR for W/R and basically ruined everyone's draft this year at his ADP.

Weak sauce.  Have never once reported you (or anyone). Nice try.  

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1 hour ago, Dr. Dan said:

so much for that guarantee that Gurley finishes top 5rb

Yep, that fell apart.  A lot of things did in this O this year, just like those predicting a DH breakout.  Massively disappointing and I’m really trying hard not to believe McVay is the second coming of Chip Kelly.  His inability to make adjustments has been extremely worrisome.  

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6 hours ago, tjnc09 said:

Update?

You're pulling up a post from May to brag about being right?  Classy!  I hope nobody ever finds my posts about David Wilson.  I'll be so embarrassed (not really).

Edited by Don Hutson
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6 hours ago, tjnc09 said:

Yep, pretty funny he and all the other Gurley fans kept reporting me when I said he was just a guy.  Might not even finish top 100 in PPR for W/R and basically ruined everyone's draft this year at his ADP.

To be fair, he isnt just a guy. Hes putting up points like one but hes very talented. It's not like the rest of the offense is doing well.and hes being out played by Henderson. The entire offense is struggling

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28 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

To be fair, he isnt just a guy. Hes putting up points like one but hes very talented. It's not like the rest of the offense is doing well.and hes being out played by Henderson. The entire offense is struggling

This.  There isnt a single reliable fantasy commodity on this roster.  Kupp is the closest, and he has been invisible since his week 8 blowup.  Goff looks lost.  The line is bad.  And as others have pointed out, the coaching has been horrid.  

We came into this season thinking:  

- Amazing head coach/offensive genius

- Good enough OL

- 3 great WR

- A good enough defense to keep them in games

- Pro Bowl, top 5ish QB

Exactly zero of these things are true, which contributes mightily to the struggles in the running game.  There were 9 running plays last night in 60 minutes of football.  9, and one from a WR and one from a QB.  The Ravens probably had nearly that many on their opening drive.  If you are getting blown out, and pose little threat in the passing game, and have a sub par OL, how can a RB be expected to perform?

Is Joe Mixon all of a sudden untalented also?  

People thought Gurley might have a rough year due to health.  He has been pretty healthy.  Those who took that position can pound their chests al they want, but I dont believe that health is the reason.  It may be a small factor, but the real reason is that the offense and coaching around him are disgustingly disappointing.

Edited by ChuckLiddell
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I was high on him as value but never talked trash. I still don’t think he’s “toast,” or “just a guy,” though. His coach just got turned into a fraud in one season. Remember how bad Gurley looked running in Fisher’s system?  A lot of people said he sucked then, too. 

Edited by -jb-

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1 hour ago, Dr. Dan said:

To be fair, he isnt just a guy. Hes putting up points like one but hes very talented. It's not like the rest of the offense is doing well.and hes being out played by Henderson. The entire offense is struggling

If people want to claim he's the best RB in the game he should be able to overcome whatever obstacles their offense has right now.  But he's not - he's just a guy dependent on a good OL and offensive system.  He ran behind the best rated OL EVER last year.  That's why a RB who has been cut by three different mediocre teams in the past two years also averaged almost seven ypc in his short stay there.

 

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2 hours ago, Don Hutson said:

You're pulling up a post from May to brag about being right?  Classy!  I hope nobody ever finds my posts about David Wilson.  I'll be so embarrassed (not really).

Oh, that's mild.  There's probably 50 posts from last December where I was reported for not being in the consensus "Gurley is the greatest" crowd.

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6 minutes ago, tjnc09 said:

If people want to claim he's the best RB in the game he should be able to overcome whatever obstacles their offense has right now.  But he's not - he's just a guy dependent on a good OL and offensive system.  He ran behind the best rated OL EVER last year.  That's why a RB who has been cut by three different mediocre teams in the past two years also averaged almost seven ypc in his short stay there.

 

Hes the only RB in recent history to finish top 5 three years in a row... hes pretty good. 

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When he has the ball he looks like he's just trying to find someone to tackle him. 

Can't recall the last time he really forced an obvious missed tackle. Jog straight ahead and fall over. 

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41 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

When he has the ball he looks like he's just trying to find someone to tackle him. 

Can't recall the last time he really forced an obvious missed tackle. Jog straight ahead and fall over. 

Agreed.  I posted something like this a few weeks ago in a game thread.  This is where he looks noticeably different this year to me.  Speed, acceleration and power I can’t see any real difference, he’s always been a guy who’s running style caused him to never look fast.  Pretty much the opposite of guys like Kyler Murray or Cohen.  But this year there seems to be no “fight” to his game.  He’s going in head first, head down and falling to the ground.  It’s really strange.  

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3 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

Hes the only RB in recent history to finish top 5 three years in a row... hes pretty good. 

Uh, what?  In 2016-17 he averaged 3.2ypc on 278 carries :lmao: - quite possibly the worst season ever for that type of volume.  Your "top 5 three years in a row" doesn't exist.

Edited by tjnc09

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3 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

Hes the only RB in recent history to finish top 5 three years in a row... hes pretty good. 

Really? Not doubting you, but I would have bet the dog and the ranch that Tomlinson, Faulk, Smith, and maybe even Terrell Davis all pulled that off.

Anyway, that was then, this is now... the Rams have the look of a team with too much money in all the wrong places.

EDIT: All depends on definition of "recent" I suppose.

Edited by Dizzy

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3 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

Hes the only RB in recent history to finish top 5 three years in a row... hes pretty good. 

Not recent history but Jim Brown finished as THE TOP rushing leader 8 out of the 9 years he played :)

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As pointed out above, Gurley has not done this.  The last RB to finish as a top 5 fantasy RB for 3 consecutive seasons is none of the guys guessed above but rather.....

Arian Foster

Edited by brewer
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On the topic of history (recent or other)... seems like elite RBs have a very wedge-shaped production curve... sharp rise with a distinct peak, and then a varying degree of downward slope until they're spent.

I think we can all agree that 2018 was Gurley's peak, so only makes sense that he would  - at the very least - have a major regression in 2019 and slow descent from here on.

Not many "twin peaks" stories out there on franchise RBs.

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1 hour ago, Dizzy said:

On the topic of history (recent or other)... seems like elite RBs have a very wedge-shaped production curve... sharp rise with a distinct peak, and then a varying degree of downward slope until they're spent.

I think we can all agree that 2018 was Gurley's peak, so only makes sense that he would  - at the very least - have a major regression in 2019 and slow descent from here on.

Not many "twin peaks" stories out there on franchise RBs.

Not to set off a hijack, but i kind of raised this point in the Christian McCaffrey thread... folks eyeing him as the obvious #1 overall pick for 2020 redrafts. This would mean that you're banking on him  being the first ever RB to follow up a peak year (he is in rare air in 2019) with an even higher peak in 2020. Overwhelming odds say he'll fall about 20% short of his 2019 season.

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5 hours ago, tjnc09 said:

Oh, that's mild.  There's probably 50 posts from last December where I was reported for not being in the consensus "Gurley is the greatest" crowd.

You weren’t reported because your opinion is not in line with consensus. You were reported because you cannot express your differing opinion without being a condescending ###. As you have shown again today in this thread. 

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19 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

You weren’t reported because your opinion is not in line with consensus. You were reported because you cannot express your differing opinion without being a condescending ###. As you have shown again today in this thread. 

Reported.  Name calling has nothing to do with football.

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1 hour ago, Dizzy said:

On the topic of history (recent or other)... seems like elite RBs have a very wedge-shaped production curve... sharp rise with a distinct peak, and then a varying degree of downward slope until they're spent.

I think we can all agree that 2018 was Gurley's peak, so only makes sense that he would  - at the very least - have a major regression in 2019 and slow descent from here on.

Not many "twin peaks" stories out there on franchise RBs.

If 2018 is his peak, he's not really that good of a RB producing two great years in a 10+ year career.  OL declining, too much money invested in four players, supposedly not healthy, QB and offense are terrible and predictable now.  There's not really any reason to be optimistic right now for the rest of his career.

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25 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

You weren’t reported because your opinion is not in line with consensus. You were reported because you cannot express your differing opinion without being a condescending ###. As you have shown again today in this thread. 

I love his "I'm the victim" schtick.

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23 minutes ago, tjnc09 said:

Reported.  Name calling has nothing to do with football.

Everyone please drop it and keep it 100% on Football and not other posters. 

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3 hours ago, brewer said:

As pointed out above, Gurley has not done this.  The last RB to finish as a top 5 fantasy RB for 3 consecutive seasons is none of the guys guessed above but rather.....

Arian Foster

I thought Gurley was #1 #1 #3 in ppr... had this discussion in the Henderson thread (or here). dont feel like checking back but I remember Foster being one that was 3 consecutive seasons. 

 

ETA: Maybe Gurley was #1, #1 the last 2 years and it was no one has finished #1 3 years in a row, and only 1 top 5 three years in a row (foster). Regardless, it's an interesting stat and one to keep in mind regarding all top rbs

Edited by Dr. Dan

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1 hour ago, tjnc09 said:

If 2018 is his peak, he's not really that good of a RB producing two great years in a 10+ year career.  OL declining, too much money invested in four players, supposedly not healthy, QB and offense are terrible and predictable now.  There's not really any reason to be optimistic right now for the rest of his career.

Some elite RBs fall off the cliff (see Shaun Alexander)... others tail off slowly.

History is on the side of Gurley never having another 2018.

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5 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

I thought Gurley was #1 #1 #3 in ppr... had this discussion in the Henderson thread (or here). dont feel like checking back but I remember Foster being one that was 3 consecutive seasons. 

 

ETA: Maybe Gurley was #1, #1 the last 2 years and it was no one has finished #1 3 years in a row, and only 1 top 5 three years in a row (foster). Regardless, it's an interesting stat and one to keep in mind regarding all top rbs

Depends on your scoring system. In our league (half PPR) he nosed out Barkley in 2018 and Lev Bell in 2017 for the #1 spot. 2016 he finished RB18 (just behind Bilal Powell).

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4 hours ago, brewer said:

As pointed out above, Gurley has not done this.  The last RB to finish as a top 5 fantasy RB for 3 consecutive seasons is none of the guys guessed above but rather.....

Arian Foster

Got me curious, so I had a look at our archives... this would be RBs finishing top-5 in fantasy for 3 (or more) consecutive seasons, regular seasons (excludes fantasy playoffs), half-PPR, going back to 1993, in order:

E. Smith - 4 yrs, B. Sanders - 3 yrs, Te. Davis -  3yrs, C. Martin - 3 yrs, M. Faulk - 4 yrs, P. Holmes - 4 yrs, L. Tomlinson - 6 yrs, T. Barber - 3 yrs, A. Peterson - 7 yrs, M. Jones-Drew - 3 yrs, A. Foster - 3yrs, D. Murray - 3 yrs.

2019 would have been Gurley's 3rd straight.

2020 McCaffrey can make his 3rd straight.

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1 hour ago, Dizzy said:

Got me curious, so I had a look at our archives... this would be RBs finishing top-5 in fantasy for 3 (or more) consecutive seasons, regular seasons (excludes fantasy playoffs), half-PPR, going back to 1993, in order:

E. Smith - 4 yrs, B. Sanders - 3 yrs, Te. Davis -  3yrs, C. Martin - 3 yrs, M. Faulk - 4 yrs, P. Holmes - 4 yrs, L. Tomlinson - 6 yrs, T. Barber - 3 yrs, A. Peterson - 7 yrs, M. Jones-Drew - 3 yrs, A. Foster - 3yrs, D. Murray - 3 yrs.

2019 would have been Gurley's 3rd straight.

2020 McCaffrey can make his 3rd straight.

certainly goes to show that about 3 years is the sweet spot (and uncommon in general). Might be a great sell high time for CMC after this year

Edited by Dr. Dan

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Chances are that CMC won't be the number one scoring running back in 2020.  But he still has a better chance than any other running back of finishing first.

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