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[Dynasty] Todd Gurley

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16 minutes ago, tjnc09 said:

Update?

O line fell apart and McVay can’t adjust to the 6-1 D.  Entire O has fallen apart can’t just point to Gurley.  

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15 minutes ago, tjnc09 said:

Yep, pretty funny he and all the other Gurley fans kept reporting me when I said he was just a guy.  Might not even finish top 100 in PPR for W/R and basically ruined everyone's draft this year at his ADP.

Weak sauce.  Have never once reported you (or anyone). Nice try.  

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1 hour ago, Dr. Dan said:

so much for that guarantee that Gurley finishes top 5rb

Yep, that fell apart.  A lot of things did in this O this year, just like those predicting a DH breakout.  Massively disappointing and I’m really trying hard not to believe McVay is the second coming of Chip Kelly.  His inability to make adjustments has been extremely worrisome.  

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6 hours ago, tjnc09 said:

Update?

You're pulling up a post from May to brag about being right?  Classy!  I hope nobody ever finds my posts about David Wilson.  I'll be so embarrassed (not really).

Edited by Don Hutson
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6 hours ago, tjnc09 said:

Yep, pretty funny he and all the other Gurley fans kept reporting me when I said he was just a guy.  Might not even finish top 100 in PPR for W/R and basically ruined everyone's draft this year at his ADP.

To be fair, he isnt just a guy. Hes putting up points like one but hes very talented. It's not like the rest of the offense is doing well.and hes being out played by Henderson. The entire offense is struggling

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28 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

To be fair, he isnt just a guy. Hes putting up points like one but hes very talented. It's not like the rest of the offense is doing well.and hes being out played by Henderson. The entire offense is struggling

This.  There isnt a single reliable fantasy commodity on this roster.  Kupp is the closest, and he has been invisible since his week 8 blowup.  Goff looks lost.  The line is bad.  And as others have pointed out, the coaching has been horrid.  

We came into this season thinking:  

- Amazing head coach/offensive genius

- Good enough OL

- 3 great WR

- A good enough defense to keep them in games

- Pro Bowl, top 5ish QB

Exactly zero of these things are true, which contributes mightily to the struggles in the running game.  There were 9 running plays last night in 60 minutes of football.  9, and one from a WR and one from a QB.  The Ravens probably had nearly that many on their opening drive.  If you are getting blown out, and pose little threat in the passing game, and have a sub par OL, how can a RB be expected to perform?

Is Joe Mixon all of a sudden untalented also?  

People thought Gurley might have a rough year due to health.  He has been pretty healthy.  Those who took that position can pound their chests al they want, but I dont believe that health is the reason.  It may be a small factor, but the real reason is that the offense and coaching around him are disgustingly disappointing.

Edited by ChuckLiddell
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I was high on him as value but never talked trash. I still don’t think he’s “toast,” or “just a guy,” though. His coach just got turned into a fraud in one season. Remember how bad Gurley looked running in Fisher’s system?  A lot of people said he sucked then, too. 

Edited by -jb-

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1 hour ago, Dr. Dan said:

To be fair, he isnt just a guy. Hes putting up points like one but hes very talented. It's not like the rest of the offense is doing well.and hes being out played by Henderson. The entire offense is struggling

If people want to claim he's the best RB in the game he should be able to overcome whatever obstacles their offense has right now.  But he's not - he's just a guy dependent on a good OL and offensive system.  He ran behind the best rated OL EVER last year.  That's why a RB who has been cut by three different mediocre teams in the past two years also averaged almost seven ypc in his short stay there.

 

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2 hours ago, Don Hutson said:

You're pulling up a post from May to brag about being right?  Classy!  I hope nobody ever finds my posts about David Wilson.  I'll be so embarrassed (not really).

Oh, that's mild.  There's probably 50 posts from last December where I was reported for not being in the consensus "Gurley is the greatest" crowd.

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6 minutes ago, tjnc09 said:

If people want to claim he's the best RB in the game he should be able to overcome whatever obstacles their offense has right now.  But he's not - he's just a guy dependent on a good OL and offensive system.  He ran behind the best rated OL EVER last year.  That's why a RB who has been cut by three different mediocre teams in the past two years also averaged almost seven ypc in his short stay there.

 

Hes the only RB in recent history to finish top 5 three years in a row... hes pretty good. 

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When he has the ball he looks like he's just trying to find someone to tackle him. 

Can't recall the last time he really forced an obvious missed tackle. Jog straight ahead and fall over. 

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41 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

When he has the ball he looks like he's just trying to find someone to tackle him. 

Can't recall the last time he really forced an obvious missed tackle. Jog straight ahead and fall over. 

Agreed.  I posted something like this a few weeks ago in a game thread.  This is where he looks noticeably different this year to me.  Speed, acceleration and power I can’t see any real difference, he’s always been a guy who’s running style caused him to never look fast.  Pretty much the opposite of guys like Kyler Murray or Cohen.  But this year there seems to be no “fight” to his game.  He’s going in head first, head down and falling to the ground.  It’s really strange.  

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3 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

Hes the only RB in recent history to finish top 5 three years in a row... hes pretty good. 

Uh, what?  In 2016-17 he averaged 3.2ypc on 278 carries :lmao: - quite possibly the worst season ever for that type of volume.  Your "top 5 three years in a row" doesn't exist.

Edited by tjnc09

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3 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

Hes the only RB in recent history to finish top 5 three years in a row... hes pretty good. 

Really? Not doubting you, but I would have bet the dog and the ranch that Tomlinson, Faulk, Smith, and maybe even Terrell Davis all pulled that off.

Anyway, that was then, this is now... the Rams have the look of a team with too much money in all the wrong places.

EDIT: All depends on definition of "recent" I suppose.

Edited by Dizzy

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3 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

Hes the only RB in recent history to finish top 5 three years in a row... hes pretty good. 

Not recent history but Jim Brown finished as THE TOP rushing leader 8 out of the 9 years he played :)

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As pointed out above, Gurley has not done this.  The last RB to finish as a top 5 fantasy RB for 3 consecutive seasons is none of the guys guessed above but rather.....

Arian Foster

Edited by brewer
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On the topic of history (recent or other)... seems like elite RBs have a very wedge-shaped production curve... sharp rise with a distinct peak, and then a varying degree of downward slope until they're spent.

I think we can all agree that 2018 was Gurley's peak, so only makes sense that he would  - at the very least - have a major regression in 2019 and slow descent from here on.

Not many "twin peaks" stories out there on franchise RBs.

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1 hour ago, Dizzy said:

On the topic of history (recent or other)... seems like elite RBs have a very wedge-shaped production curve... sharp rise with a distinct peak, and then a varying degree of downward slope until they're spent.

I think we can all agree that 2018 was Gurley's peak, so only makes sense that he would  - at the very least - have a major regression in 2019 and slow descent from here on.

Not many "twin peaks" stories out there on franchise RBs.

Not to set off a hijack, but i kind of raised this point in the Christian McCaffrey thread... folks eyeing him as the obvious #1 overall pick for 2020 redrafts. This would mean that you're banking on him  being the first ever RB to follow up a peak year (he is in rare air in 2019) with an even higher peak in 2020. Overwhelming odds say he'll fall about 20% short of his 2019 season.

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5 hours ago, tjnc09 said:

Oh, that's mild.  There's probably 50 posts from last December where I was reported for not being in the consensus "Gurley is the greatest" crowd.

You weren’t reported because your opinion is not in line with consensus. You were reported because you cannot express your differing opinion without being a condescending ###. As you have shown again today in this thread. 

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19 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

You weren’t reported because your opinion is not in line with consensus. You were reported because you cannot express your differing opinion without being a condescending ###. As you have shown again today in this thread. 

Reported.  Name calling has nothing to do with football.

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1 hour ago, Dizzy said:

On the topic of history (recent or other)... seems like elite RBs have a very wedge-shaped production curve... sharp rise with a distinct peak, and then a varying degree of downward slope until they're spent.

I think we can all agree that 2018 was Gurley's peak, so only makes sense that he would  - at the very least - have a major regression in 2019 and slow descent from here on.

Not many "twin peaks" stories out there on franchise RBs.

If 2018 is his peak, he's not really that good of a RB producing two great years in a 10+ year career.  OL declining, too much money invested in four players, supposedly not healthy, QB and offense are terrible and predictable now.  There's not really any reason to be optimistic right now for the rest of his career.

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25 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

You weren’t reported because your opinion is not in line with consensus. You were reported because you cannot express your differing opinion without being a condescending ###. As you have shown again today in this thread. 

I love his "I'm the victim" schtick.

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23 minutes ago, tjnc09 said:

Reported.  Name calling has nothing to do with football.

Everyone please drop it and keep it 100% on Football and not other posters. 

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3 hours ago, brewer said:

As pointed out above, Gurley has not done this.  The last RB to finish as a top 5 fantasy RB for 3 consecutive seasons is none of the guys guessed above but rather.....

Arian Foster

I thought Gurley was #1 #1 #3 in ppr... had this discussion in the Henderson thread (or here). dont feel like checking back but I remember Foster being one that was 3 consecutive seasons. 

 

ETA: Maybe Gurley was #1, #1 the last 2 years and it was no one has finished #1 3 years in a row, and only 1 top 5 three years in a row (foster). Regardless, it's an interesting stat and one to keep in mind regarding all top rbs

Edited by Dr. Dan

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1 hour ago, tjnc09 said:

If 2018 is his peak, he's not really that good of a RB producing two great years in a 10+ year career.  OL declining, too much money invested in four players, supposedly not healthy, QB and offense are terrible and predictable now.  There's not really any reason to be optimistic right now for the rest of his career.

Some elite RBs fall off the cliff (see Shaun Alexander)... others tail off slowly.

History is on the side of Gurley never having another 2018.

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5 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

I thought Gurley was #1 #1 #3 in ppr... had this discussion in the Henderson thread (or here). dont feel like checking back but I remember Foster being one that was 3 consecutive seasons. 

 

ETA: Maybe Gurley was #1, #1 the last 2 years and it was no one has finished #1 3 years in a row, and only 1 top 5 three years in a row (foster). Regardless, it's an interesting stat and one to keep in mind regarding all top rbs

Depends on your scoring system. In our league (half PPR) he nosed out Barkley in 2018 and Lev Bell in 2017 for the #1 spot. 2016 he finished RB18 (just behind Bilal Powell).

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4 hours ago, brewer said:

As pointed out above, Gurley has not done this.  The last RB to finish as a top 5 fantasy RB for 3 consecutive seasons is none of the guys guessed above but rather.....

Arian Foster

Got me curious, so I had a look at our archives... this would be RBs finishing top-5 in fantasy for 3 (or more) consecutive seasons, regular seasons (excludes fantasy playoffs), half-PPR, going back to 1993, in order:

E. Smith - 4 yrs, B. Sanders - 3 yrs, Te. Davis -  3yrs, C. Martin - 3 yrs, M. Faulk - 4 yrs, P. Holmes - 4 yrs, L. Tomlinson - 6 yrs, T. Barber - 3 yrs, A. Peterson - 7 yrs, M. Jones-Drew - 3 yrs, A. Foster - 3yrs, D. Murray - 3 yrs.

2019 would have been Gurley's 3rd straight.

2020 McCaffrey can make his 3rd straight.

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1 hour ago, Dizzy said:

Got me curious, so I had a look at our archives... this would be RBs finishing top-5 in fantasy for 3 (or more) consecutive seasons, regular seasons (excludes fantasy playoffs), half-PPR, going back to 1993, in order:

E. Smith - 4 yrs, B. Sanders - 3 yrs, Te. Davis -  3yrs, C. Martin - 3 yrs, M. Faulk - 4 yrs, P. Holmes - 4 yrs, L. Tomlinson - 6 yrs, T. Barber - 3 yrs, A. Peterson - 7 yrs, M. Jones-Drew - 3 yrs, A. Foster - 3yrs, D. Murray - 3 yrs.

2019 would have been Gurley's 3rd straight.

2020 McCaffrey can make his 3rd straight.

certainly goes to show that about 3 years is the sweet spot (and uncommon in general). Might be a great sell high time for CMC after this year

Edited by Dr. Dan

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Chances are that CMC won't be the number one scoring running back in 2020.  But he still has a better chance than any other running back of finishing first.

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1 hour ago, Dizzy said:

Got me curious, so I had a look at our archives... this would be RBs finishing top-5 in fantasy for 3 (or more) consecutive seasons, regular seasons (excludes fantasy playoffs), half-PPR, going back to 1993, in order:

E. Smith - 4 yrs, B. Sanders - 3 yrs, Te. Davis -  3yrs, C. Martin - 3 yrs, M. Faulk - 4 yrs, P. Holmes - 4 yrs, L. Tomlinson - 6 yrs, T. Barber - 3 yrs, A. Peterson - 7 yrs, M. Jones-Drew - 3 yrs, A. Foster - 3yrs, D. Murray - 3 yrs.

2019 would have been Gurley's 3rd straight.

2020 McCaffrey can make his 3rd straight.

AP 7!  What a freak.  

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13 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

certainly goes to show that about 3 years is the sweet spot (and uncommon in general). Might be a great sell high time for CMC after this year

He’s only 23 years old! 

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4 hours ago, Rhythmdoctor said:

He’s only 23 years old! 

stats are the stats... he would be an outlier if he was top 5 in 2021. certainly he is a realistic candidate for an outlier, but just playing the trends

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8 hours ago, Faust said:

Very interesting read, thanks.  Looks like their GM made mistakes and neglecting the OL and giving 2 1st rd picks for Ramsey are the biggest ones of them all.  They look to be in future doo doo.  Too much money and draft capital for a few core players.  Even a novice like me realizes the way to build a long term contender is to pay special attention to the trenches with the draft.  A team like the Colts are in a much better position going forward than the Rams.  Even with the loss of Andrew Luck, they paid attention to the trenches, especially the OL, and have future draft capital and cap money to continue to build.  I'm starting to think Ballard is very smart.

Edited by JohnnyU
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Quote

Todd Gurley rushed 19 times for 95 yards and one touchdown in the Rams' Week 13 win over the Cardinals.

The Rams, like many offenses, could do no wrong against the Cardinals. Jared Goff finished with over 400 yards, and Gurley had a ton of room to run. Gurley continues to only pick up the yards that are handed to him while he plays through troubling knee issues, but he can reach a ceiling whenever the Rams decide to bring back the 2018 version of their offense. The former All-Pro will look for his first 100-yard rushing game against the Seahawks at home next week. Gurley will be an RB2.

Dec 1, 2019, 6:58 PM ET

 

 

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Gurley had a nice 30 yard TD called back on a hold, still ended with a pretty decent day, didn’t play at all in the 4th quarter but for a few plays due to it being a blowout.  I have more confidence in starting him now than at any time this season.   Just don’t want anymore blowouts.

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Sounds about right....

 

Lindsey Thiry ESPN 

What's gone into Todd Gurley's increase in usage the last few weeks? "Me not being an idiot," Sean McVay said.

 

 

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I think McVay out thinks himself sometimes.  Like he gets too caught up in doing the unexpected instead of just throwing a few wrinkles into the mix.

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14 hours ago, dkp993 said:

Sounds about right....

 

Lindsey Thiry ESPN 

What's gone into Todd Gurley's increase in usage the last few weeks? "Me not being an idiot," Sean McVay said.

 

 

I think he is stubborn and thinks he is a lot smarter than he is.  Or, he gets tunnel vision during games and doesn't think.

Edited by JohnnyU

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29 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

I think he is stubborn and thinks he is a lot smarter than he is.  Or, he gets tunnel vision during games and doesn't think.

Agreed.  Ego is a MF’er

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Quote

Todd Gurley had 23 carries for 79 yards and a touchdown and caught four passes for 34 yards in the Rams' Week 14 win over Seattle.

The Rams got Gurley involved early, with the 27 touches his most since Week 11. He had a touchdown vultured by Malcolm Brown with the Rams going no-huddle after a Tyler Higbee catch set them up at the one-yard line. The Rams went away from Gurley for a second time on their next drive, running a play-action to Robert Woods from two-yards out. Gurley finally got his TD on a six-yard run where he stiff-armed Trey Flowers on his way to the end-zone. The Rams have made a point to get Gurley more involved down the stretch with 20-plus touches the last two weeks. They should continue to ride him for a Week 15 matchup with Dallas.

Dec 8, 2019, 11:42 PM ET

 

 

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On 12/8/2019 at 9:10 PM, dkp993 said:

That stiff arm TD tonight was sick.  

His bad knee made him lean for better leverage.

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Anybody think is dynasty value is climbing just a little bit? He probably won't ever be what he was the last two years but he only missed one game this season and showed he can handle a full load the last two games.

Looking at his numbers, they don't jump out. But he was consistent week to week because he remained effective around the goal line. I think he can repeat his RB2 numbers from this year over the next couple years.

I'm starting him with confidence next week anyway.

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