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[Dynasty] Todd Gurley (1 Viewer)

Speaking Tuesday, Falcons GM Thomas Dimitroff said Todd Gurley has yet to pass a physical, but that the team is confident he will. 

Dimitroff confirmed there is language in Gurley's contract that protects the team. “When he passes our physical,” Dimitroff emphasized. "We looked closely at it," Dimitroff continued. "We're not looking at it that way." At this point, it is extremely unlikely the deal will fall apart. The Falcons knew what they were getting into when they took the flier. That being said, they will probably still add another body to their post-Devonta Freeman backfield.   

SOURCE: Vaughn McClure on Twitter 

Apr 7, 2020, 1:31 PM ET
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The Man With No Name said:
(thehuddle) Atlanta Falcons RB Todd Gurley was charged with the dropped pass on a league-high 14.3 percent of his targets in 2019 as a member of the Los Angeles Rams. Denver Broncos RB Phillip Lindsay (12.5) and Minnesota Vikings RB Dalvin Cook (11.1) were the only other qualified running backs with a drop rate of higher than nine percent.
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I’m not sure what you can glean from this stat. Although someone is charged with a drop, doesn’t mean it was there fault. How many of those were actually on the QB. One thing it DOES tell me is that they trusted him enough to qualify for this stat.

 
Only to an ostrich. Drops are dropped balls, not balls thrown where they can't be caught. The same guys rate everyone and have no apparent reason to play favorites. You can dismiss any stat if you want to. Fake news. But the reality is that for whatever reason Gurley dropped far more passes last year, on the average, than any other qualifying back. Doesn't mean he will do that again or can't catch, but don't argue that the flat stat may be rigged to make him look bad.

 
travdogg said:
Honestly, Henry and Zeke aren't that valuable either. The real question will be McCaffrey, because he's an elite RB, and a top receiver. 

I kinda think the bolded has already happened. We've seen several WR's that would have been RB's 20+ years ago. I certainly think Deebo Samuel would have been, probably Laviska Shenault too. Conversely, I wonder if he were coming out now instead of 1994, if Marshall Faulk would have been a WR?

One issue to this idea fully taking hold, is that the lower you get on the level of play, the more valuable RB becomes. Its probably your best or 2nd best player on HS teams. 

I know if I had a really athletic kid who wanted to play football, and wasn't going to be a QB, I'd be trying to get them to play CB. The money is there, and the demand seems to be far greater than the supply. Which is how guy like Trey Waynes get 12 million a year, despite being a pretty below average starter.

That is a really bad idea. Most 18 year olds, even the most athletically gifted, are still going to be physically unable to handle playing with NFL players. All skipping college does is leave them with no education. Coming into the league sooner doesn't change the value of the position, if anything it would make it even lower, as the supply of RB's would get even bigger.

The best answer is that the truly elite athletes should play other positions. RB should be to WR,  what G is to T, where its often the place guys get moved when they can't cut it at the more important spot.
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Bo Jackson, Herschel Walker, Jim Brown, Earl Campbell, Adrian Peterson all would have smashed NFL defenders straight out of high school. Those are just a handful. There are others like Frank Gore that probably could have made the jump straight to the NFL and suffered awful ACL injuries in college and still had a long career. Yes most athletes need more time, but for elite RB talents, college is really just a mandatory waiting room for the big show. And why should they risk getting injured while they are waiting or even wait at all? 

I would also argue that the current NFL eligibility rules essentially take away the first few prime income earning years from an elite RB. The college education earned over the same time is highly overvalued by comparison. In a fair world, they would already be playing for their second contract and easily pay for 100 college educations if they wanted. 

 
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Ex-Rams Todd Gurley and Clay Matthews both allege the team is behind on bonus payments they are still due. 

The haggling appears related to offset language. Gurley's situation seems more straightforward than Matthews'. Profootballtalk's Mike Florio dives into the weeds of the contract language at the link below.  

RELATED: 

Clay Matthews

, Los Angeles Rams

SOURCE: Profootballtalk on NBCSports.com 

Apr 9, 2020, 2:13 PM ET
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Profootballtalk's Mike Florio reports the Rams "clearly" owe Todd Gurley $5.05 million in unpaid bonus money. 

Gurley is owed a $7.55 million bonus, with only $2.5 million of it subject to offset language. “It’s pretty clear the Rams are in the wrong,” were the words of a source with knowledge of Gurley's pact. “Even if you take the theory they are waiting on the offset they are in the wrong.” Florio reports the matter is less certain with a similarly-disgruntled Clay Matthews. The Rams have yet to publicly comment, but have leaked they believe they are in the right. One way or another, Gurley is going to get paid. Owner Stan Kroenke needs to get it over with. The matter figures to come to a head once Gurley officially passes his Falcons physical. 

SOURCE: Profootballtalk on NBCSports.com

Apr 9, 2020, 5:09 PM ET
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dkp993 said:
An absolutely outstanding breakdown of Gurley with the Rams last year and his prospects with ATL   

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wbnXxu4ZkUg&ebc=ANyPxKqHxpR6VwsCFEE98Cs7r69gtbLTo-tvzWruwrMC_08ar3C1vix4iV2iI5f8xmh0wvVYVPnSd36UgiRJFacIBDdCplZP6A
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I still have several shares of Gurley and am hoping for the best, but I'm confused as to whether that guy was trying to make the point that Gurley is still good or that Gurley was NEVER good.

His point was basically that in 2017-2018 the Rams had literally the most efficient run blocking line in NFL history alongside one of the best offense schemes in NFL history, and in 2019 their line was merely average alongside a scheme that had been figured out.  I know his point was to show the dropoff in line play in 2019, but "this RB sucks now because the line had the highest adjusted yards per carry in NFL history when he was good and was flat in the middle of the league when this guy sucked" doesn't exactly paint a rosey picture for the RB.  He's trying to illustrate that the line play deteriorated but what he's really illustrating is that Todd Gurley has only ever been good behind elite best in NFL history O-line play and when the line play was average, he stunk.

The Falcons line is unlikely to be better than the 2019 Rams' 19th in adjusted yards per carry next year.  So I guess according to that video as a Gurley owner I should be excited that maybe Gurley didn't suck last year because of his knee, maybe he just sucked because he's not really that good of a player and he can only excel behind the best run blocking line in NFL history.  Yay, I guess?

 
FreeBaGeL said:
I still have several shares of Gurley and am hoping for the best, but I'm confused as to whether that guy was trying to make the point that Gurley is still good or that Gurley was NEVER good.

His point was basically that in 2017-2018 the Rams had literally the most efficient run blocking line in NFL history alongside one of the best offense schemes in NFL history, and in 2019 their line was merely average alongside a scheme that had been figured out.  I know his point was to show the dropoff in line play in 2019, but "this RB sucks now because the line had the highest adjusted yards per carry in NFL history when he was good and was flat in the middle of the league when this guy sucked" doesn't exactly paint a rosey picture for the RB.  He's trying to illustrate that the line play deteriorated but what he's really illustrating is that Todd Gurley has only ever been good behind elite best in NFL history O-line play and when the line play was average, he stunk.

The Falcons line is unlikely to be better than the 2019 Rams' 19th in adjusted yards per carry next year.  So I guess according to that video as a Gurley owner I should be excited that maybe Gurley didn't suck last year because of his knee, maybe he just sucked because he's not really that good of a player and he can only excel behind the best run blocking line in NFL history.  Yay, I guess?
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Seems pretty clear to me he thinks he’s good.  Certainly had a great line in 18 and great scheme, all of that fell apart in 19. 

 
dkp993 said:
Seems pretty clear to me he thinks he’s good.  Certainly had a great line in 18 and great scheme, all of that fell apart in 19. 
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Oh I get that's what he wanted to say.  But what he inadvertently illustrated in his video is that maybe Gurley has just always been a situation dependent JAG who only excelled because he was playing with the best line/scheme combo in NFL history and now he sucks because his line fell down to merely average.

I'm not saying that's what he is, but the way his argument was presented that is basically what he ended up saying inadvertently.  And realistically most likely the Falcons BEST case scenario is that they are similar to that average Rams line/scheme that Gurley sucked in.  They certainly aren't going to put forward the best run blocking line in NFL history alongside one of the best rushing schemes in NFL history that helped Gurley not suck for a few years.

Remember, this isn't the first time that Gurley has performed like a bottom of the league RB when not playing alongside the best run blocking line in the NFL.

 
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FreeBaGeL said:
Oh I get that's what he wanted to say.  But what he inadvertently illustrated in his video is that maybe Gurley has just always been a situation dependent JAG who only excelled because he was playing with the best line/scheme combo in NFL history and now he sucks because his line fell down to merely average.

I'm not saying that's what he is, but the way his argument was presented that is basically what he ended up saying inadvertently.  And realistically most likely the Falcons BEST case scenario is that they are similar to that average Rams line/scheme that Gurley sucked in.  They certainly aren't going to put forward the best run blocking line in NFL history alongside one of the best rushing schemes in NFL history that helped Gurley not suck for a few years.

Remember, this isn't the first time that Gurley has performed like a bottom of the league RB when not playing alongside the best run blocking line in the NFL.
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Sure. And this is all been argued in this thread ad nauseam.  I’m in the camp thinks he’s a good running back and the two bad years he had extenuating circumstances led to that. But I’m not saying the other argument isn’t a valid one.  I guess Atlanta will be a good litmus test to see.  

 
As a contender and returning champ, I'm tempted to offer a late first to a rebuilding team for Gurley. Seems like that's enough to get it done based on the temperature in here. 

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Oh I get that's what he wanted to say.  But what he inadvertently illustrated in his video is that maybe Gurley has just always been a situation dependent JAG who only excelled because he was playing with the best line/scheme combo in NFL history and now he sucks because his line fell down to merely average.

I'm not saying that's what he is, but the way his argument was presented that is basically what he ended up saying inadvertently.  And realistically most likely the Falcons BEST case scenario is that they are similar to that average Rams line/scheme that Gurley sucked in.  They certainly aren't going to put forward the best run blocking line in NFL history alongside one of the best rushing schemes in NFL history that helped Gurley not suck for a few years.

Remember, this isn't the first time that Gurley has performed like a bottom of the league RB when not playing alongside the best run blocking line in the NFL.
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Atlanta is building and probably is there in 2020 to have a top 10 o-line.  Your observation is correct however about offensive lines dictating the success of a run game.

 
Falcons OC Dirk Koetter said about RB Todd Gurley that "the main question, that no one seems to know, is what is his health status?"

Good question, Dirk. Apparently the Falcons don't know either. Still, a featured role isn't guaranteed even if Gurley passes his physical. The Falcons have been hesitant over the years to completely hand over the backfield to a single back. Sure, both Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman were given three-down roles when the other was injured, but otherwise we've consistently seen multiple RBs involved in this offense. Gurley will certainly be the lead back. Just don't underestimate Ito Smith's potential involvement. It's unlikely we see Gurley flirt with more than 15 or so rushes per week. Still, there's perhaps an underrated TD ceiling here considering Atlanta has posted average ranks of 5.6 and 12 in yards and scoring, respectively, over the past five seasons. Nobody has more rushing scores than Gurley since 2018, and he's entering arguably a better overall offense than before.

SOURCE: Mike Conti on Twitter

May 14, 2020, 10:36 AM ET
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He's really tough to project.  

The knee is a factor.  Even if he feels 100% fine and could stand 350 touches, the falcons are thinking about the knee.  Which I have to assume means they don't just give him 350-400 touches and let him run wild.  

I'm with @dkp993.  I think Gurley is probably still really really good.  But I think the Falcons will look to "manage" his workload.  Furthermore, the Falcons just haven't been supremely RB friendly in recent years.  

225 Rushes, 48 receptions seems reasonable to slightly optimistic  And he may do fine with that.  If he can land at 4.4-4.5 yards per carry, that's ~1,000 yards rushing.  At his career average of 9.6 ypr, he'd land at 460 receiving yards.  The offense will score enough he cold hit 8-10 TD's.  I can see the upside.  

All that being said, if I'm getting this guy in the 5th round, I'm probably a buyer.  If I'm getting him in the 3rd...eh.  

Dynasty wise--I think he's a hold.  I don't know that I'm getting enough to justify letting him go.  Too many question marks.

 
jm192 said:
.  

Dynasty wise--I think he's a hold.  I don't know that I'm getting enough to justify letting him go.  Too many question marks.
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Stating the obvious: he’s the classic early season sell, assuming he starts off the season well, to a win-now team that needs an RB. Maaaaybe you can squeak late 1st round value if he lights it up and other team is confident they’ll make the finals with him

 
joey said:
Stating the obvious: he’s the classic early season sell, assuming he starts off the season well, to a win-now team that needs an RB. Maaaaybe you can squeak late 1st round value if he lights it up and other team is confident they’ll make the finals with him
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I think this is right.  I even initially typed it.  My only pause is the thought of what if he actually is fine and St. Louis's O-L was a dumpster fire last year coupled with people figuring out their offense.

All that said, yeah if I can get a 1st next year, it's going to be nearly impossible to say no.

 
Lamar Jackson, Dalvin Cook among NFL's 10 most explosive runners

Excerpt:

8. Todd Gurley 

Runs of 10-plus yards: 21. 10-plus run pct: 9.4. 15-plus mph pct: 18.4.

Here's where the numbers are peculiar. Even if we don't quite agree with this result (based on the recent events that saw Gurley fall out of favor in L.A.), Gurley does indeed meet the criteria to land on this list, which suggests that, even during his down year, he was still among the league's more explosive runners. Only one of Gurley's 10 fastest touches over the last two seasons came in 2019, yet he still managed to reach or exceed 15 mph on nearly 20 percent of his 223 attempts. His 21 runs of 10-plus yards show he can still gain significant yards, even if he hasn't been the home-run hitter he once was. Will we see him here again in 2020 as a member of the Falcons? Unlikely, but he's still got at least some juice, or he did in 2019.
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Todd Gurley said he's open to sitting out the season if the NFL doesn't come up with a proper COVID-19 safety plan.

“It’s really not structured right,” Gurley said about the NFL’s current restart plan. “There’s not a proper plan in place that I’m comfortable with. I don’t have a wife. I don’t have any kids. You have to look at guys on the other side who have [a] pregnant wife, kids and a wife that they go home to every single day. I just feel like we just need to come up with something a lot better than what they’re giving us. Everything they gave us is pretty last minute. We should have been able to have answers weeks ago, if not months ago. You have to be prepared to not play or be prepared to have a half a season. If they don’t do things right, we won’t have a full season. It’s just how things have been going so far this year. Hopefully everything goes well, but I don’t see [it]. It just doesn’t sit well right now.” The league and NFLPA are working on a plan as we speak, but this is something that should've been done weeks ago, as Gurley said, with training camps scheduled to open this coming week. Gurley is one of the first players we've seen actually talk about the possibility of sitting out.

SOURCE: 92.9 Atlanta

Jul 24, 2020, 10:40 AM ET
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BoltBacker said:
No income? For the amount Kroenke will be paying Gurley NOT TO play for the Rams I certainly wish I had "no income". 
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He’s paying him because he guaranteed him money in the event he cut him. And he cut him. He didn’t have to. He could have kept Gurley . He’s paying him regardless if Gurley plays or not, and that is money Gurley is owed. Opt out doesn’t change that at all. Gurley has a one year contract and he has incentive to play well and prove he still has it if he wants one more big contract deal for his career. That is what I think makes Gurley play. If he sets out, then his perceived value is lower and at the same time he’s competing with a lot of free agent RBs next season. Sitting out would more than likely cost him a fortune. 

 
Blackbear said:
He’s paying him because he guaranteed him money in the event he cut him. And he cut him. He didn’t have to. He could have kept Gurley . He’s paying him regardless if Gurley plays or not, and that is money Gurley is owed. Opt out doesn’t change that at all. 
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Are you arguing with ME about that? I could have just sworn I said the same thing.

 
BoltBacker said:
Are you arguing with ME about that? I could have just sworn I said the same thing.
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Consider it expanding. 🙂

I’m just pointing out how foolish it would be for Gurley to sit out based on pay and opportunity. 
 

If he had risk factors, or family member with risk factors I could see differently. But...

 
I forgot that he hadn't received the Knoenke millions owed into the future yet, but if he were to sit it would still cost him $5.5 mil in ATL salary to do so. I don't see it unless his knee is a lot worse then we have been led to believe.

 
Catbird said:
I forgot that he hadn't received the Knoenke millions owed into the future yet, but if he were to sit it would still cost him $5.5 mil in ATL salary to do so. I don't see it unless his knee is a lot worse then we have been led to believe.
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He passed a physical. I also saw him playing basketball with Cam Newton. I hope the guy wouldn’t play b-ball if his knee was soar. Doesn’t make sense. 
 

edit... video on YouTube I was referring too... https://youtu.be/0MLsF2U6pLk

 
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I think it's absolutely nuts how much faith Falcons are showing Gurley. Ito Smith's coming off neck injury and Brian Hill was awful last season.

Faust said:
Falcons considering limited workload for Todd Gurley in training camp
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ESPN's Vaughn McClure reports the Falcons are considering limiting Todd Gurley's workload in training camp.

Training regimens in camp aren't anything new — the Raiders are reportedly doing as much with Josh Jacobs this year. But Vaughn points out that Gurley "walked with a noticeable limp" during the early phases of the Falcons’ acclimation period. It's simply a hard pill to swallow at his current Average Draft Position as the RB15 in the late-second round. The 26-year-old still finds himself in a much better offensive situation than last year, moving from an offense that targeted its running backs at the league's lowest rate to one that filled Devonta Freeman's dusty hands with five targets per game. Caution is at the very least warranted if adding Gurley as an RB2.

SOURCE: ESPN.com

Aug 13, 2020, 8:06 AM ET
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Budda Baker's contract furthers NFL trend; plus, why the Chargers are better off with Tyrod Taylor and much more

Excerpt:

The Gurley plan. Dirk Koetter's proposed usage plan for Todd Gurley should be music to the ears of Falcons fans. The veteran offensive coordinator aims to give the two-time first-team All-Pro 15-to-25 touches a week as part of a game plan to energize an underachieving offense that averaged just 23.8 points per game in 2019 despite having a former MVP at quarterback and multiple five-star playmakers on the perimeter (SEE: Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley).

Although there are concerns about whether Gurley's knee can hold up with a heavy workload, the Falcons' commitment to feeding him the ball is sensible based on his potential impact on the offense. Since Gurley entered the league in 2015, his teams are 21-1 when he finishes the game with at least 20 touches. Moreover, his teams are undefeated (12-0) when he totals 25-plus touches in a game.

As a dynamic playmaker with a slashing running style, soft hands and polished receiving skills, Gurley is a three-down back capable of "100-plus" production (scrimmage yards) when healthy. The sixth-year pro is a scoring machine with an efficient track record for getting the ball into the paint (64 red-zone scores on 259 red-zone touches over 73 career games). In today's shootout league, Gurley's scoring prowess not only adds pop to the Falcons' offense, but it could help them re-emerge as serious contenders in the NFC.
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Todd Gurley rushed 14 times for 56 yards and a touchdown in the Falcons' Week 1 loss to the Seahawks, adding two receptions for one yard. 

It was a solid Falcons debut for Gurley, who found the end zone with a leaping one-yard score in the second quarter. The volume was limited because the Falcons spent the vast majority of the game playing from behind. It was 14-3 Seahawks in the first quarter and 28-12 at halftime. Gurley looked reasonably limber going side to side, not just downhill. Brian Hill played as his direct backup, handling five touches. Minus 4-5 additional touches, today was basically what fantasy players signed up for when they made Gurley their RB2. A potential shootout in the Cowboys is on deck for Week 2. 

- Rotoworld
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Todd Gurley rushed 14 times for 80 yards and a touchdown in the Falcons' Week 3 loss to the Bears.

It was easily Gurley's best game as a Falcon, even showing a faint illusion of wiggle to create yards on his own. He's still not the same player as he used to be, as Gurley only has three receptions through three games, but the Falcons likely will continue to rely on him as the team's lead ball carrier. That volume places Gurley in RB2 territory against the Packers in Week 4.

Sep 27, 2020, 6:03 PM ET
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