Maybe; not sure if Mitch’s 1 game sold me, though.
Anyway, not trying to make this an asst coach post; just wanted to share the offer(s) I had for Crow.
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Isaiah Crowell (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter georg013
- Start date
Anyway, not trying to make this an asst coach post; just wanted to share the offer(s) I had for Crow.
I think Dalton sounds about right (though I disagree that he's equal to Trubisky). A QB who you will start most weeks vs. a RB who, based on his performance so far, you will never feel totally comfortable starting. Or to put it another way, a mid- to low-QB1 for an RB3. I think of Brees as a Top 5 QB, so that would have been way better value.
JoeSteeler
Footballguy
unckeyherb
Footballguy
Basically there’s some games, based on script, that he’ll be startable. And some games, based on script that he won’t. Good luck.
rangerforme
Footballguy
I guess he's top 10 in all 3 of my leagues for total rb pts.
Reminds me of when that exhaustively researched book came out proving Barry Bonds used steroids and The Onion responded with this.
Seriously, the question with the "script" strategy is, can we predict it accurately ahead of time? It's not at all clear to me that we can.
It's equal parts script and defense. Script can be difficult to accurately predict (no matter how obvious it may seem beforehand, ex: Min vs. Buf week 3), but defensive integrity is easier to predict as the season wears on and we've got larger samples to work with. At this point Indy isn't looking scary. I say start him with confidence this week.
Man, you have a stronger stomach than I do. I may need to start him if Cooks doesn't clear the concussion protocol, but I'm a long way from feeling confident. You're right that we may gain more clarity as the season goes on, but right now I see a guy who has literally alternated good and bad weeks through the first five ... hey, maybe that's the tell! Only start him in odd-numbered weeks!
(Feel free to pay me retroactively for that trenchant analysis.)
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Crowell is not subject to gamescript. The Jets rotate Crowell and Powell in for series (give or take a breather here and there) and they are both used as three down backs when it's their series. They are used exactly the same - and it's just a matter of one of them breaking some big plays and getting hot.
Crowell is the more explosive and better overall back, but Powell is a tough runner and slightly better in the passing game. It will be difficult to predict but one would have to imagine that Crowell earned some extra run after last week.
rockaction
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
It's a true RBBC. That's how it goes down in the AFC East with the Jets this year. Two good backs. Low floor, high ceiling. Welcome to it.
rockaction
Footballguy
My favorite part of this is that somebody in the Jets building thinks Bell is the answer.
That's why the Jets are the Jets.
That's why the Jets are the Jets.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
That would have been a move Tannenbaum would have made - he loved those splashy moves - which tells you that it was the wrong direction to go.My favorite part of this is that somebody in the Jets building thinks Bell is the answer.
That's why the Jets are the Jets.
rockaction
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I love Bell but at the time of those rumors I was saying RB is the one offensive position they're set at. It made no sense - especially under the circumstances that they aren't even a "win now" team.
I'm not saying to expect top 12 RB production for the week, but I like his odds of getting double digit points this week. He's averaging 11.4 carries, 1.6 targets, and 1 TD per game.Man, you have a stronger stomach than I do. I may need to start him if Cooks doesn't clear the concussion protocol, but I'm a long way from feeling confident. You're right that we may gain more clarity as the season goes on, but right now I see a guy who has literally alternated good and bad weeks through the first five ... hey, maybe that's the tell! Only start him in odd-numbered weeks!
(Feel free to pay me retroactively for that trenchant analysis.)
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Why is everyone in the dfs forum love Powell this week? Crow tired from running so far?
rockaction
Footballguy
Yeah, it's such a stretch. I wonder what Mehta was reporting on, or what his sources were. When the average fan can see the trouble with it, it's a problem.
rockaction
Footballguy
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Maybe they're buying into the every other week theory (which is likely just coincidence).
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
Soulfly3
Footballguy
GrantK
Footballguy
In a 16-team dynasty IDP, I offered Jameis Winston and Crowell for Cam Newton (guy has Pat Mahomes and Alex Smith and very thin at RB because of injuries). Rejected, and he said he didn't want to counter.
pinequick
Footballguy
Crazy. Crowell is overall player #27 and RB #8 in my league. And seems like nobody can trade him away...
rockaction
Footballguy
I own him in two dynasties and I've tried trading him for a couple years. I don't think his value has ever been higher. No one wants him. He is the Eric Ebron of RBs. (I own Ebron in those same two leagues. No one wants him, either.)
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Raging weasel
Footballguy
This is a good post, but just to be clear, while game script might not impact his split with Powell, it does impact RB carries. If a game gets out of hand, I don't expect Crowell to get enough carries to put up good fantasy numbers. So like the Waldman article says, despite Buffalo having a good defense, game script will probably allow for enough volume to balance that out. The New England matchup could dictate more passing so he becomes a questionable start for that game.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Just turned in a DNP (knee) yesterday. Possibly a maintenance day, but after drilling down a bit I’m not seeing why he needs a maintenance day.
He has only had 19 carries over the last 2 games. Powell has outsnapped Crowell in every game this year, even the two blowout Ws. Game script does not seem to affect his workload other than he gets a few more snaps (as does Powell) in blowout Ws, but his high carry mark was against CLE in a close game but still was only 16.
Crowell is averaging just over 11 carries a game. He crapped the bed against the 2 top 10 run Ds NY has played - neither is top 5 - was bad against CLE (#16 run D) at 12 carries for 35 yds but was saved by 2 TDs. Had his two good games against bottom 10 run Ds DEN and DET, but gained his 321 yds on only 25 carries on 49 snaps cumulative, with the 3 total TDs.
His ypc is awful (2.15 ypc) when he isn’t playing a bottom 10 run D. He’s virtually ignored in the pass game.
This week he gets #15 run D IND. After seeing these stats broken down more deeply, I’m strongly thinking of sitting him for Clement this week. He’s not getting nearly enough workload and needs a really bad run D or has to score 2 TDs in order to put up any kind of decent FF numbers. Against an average run D this week, it seems like he’ll be TD dependent again.
He has only had 19 carries over the last 2 games. Powell has outsnapped Crowell in every game this year, even the two blowout Ws. Game script does not seem to affect his workload other than he gets a few more snaps (as does Powell) in blowout Ws, but his high carry mark was against CLE in a close game but still was only 16.
Crowell is averaging just over 11 carries a game. He crapped the bed against the 2 top 10 run Ds NY has played - neither is top 5 - was bad against CLE (#16 run D) at 12 carries for 35 yds but was saved by 2 TDs. Had his two good games against bottom 10 run Ds DEN and DET, but gained his 321 yds on only 25 carries on 49 snaps cumulative, with the 3 total TDs.
His ypc is awful (2.15 ypc) when he isn’t playing a bottom 10 run D. He’s virtually ignored in the pass game.
This week he gets #15 run D IND. After seeing these stats broken down more deeply, I’m strongly thinking of sitting him for Clement this week. He’s not getting nearly enough workload and needs a really bad run D or has to score 2 TDs in order to put up any kind of decent FF numbers. Against an average run D this week, it seems like he’ll be TD dependent again.
If you drill down a bit more, his Cleveland game wasn't really bad. Cleveland pinned them down near their own goal line a few times and he got stuck in those obvious rushing situations. He also had a lot of red zone touches, which are tougher with the shorter field and all:
Own 1, 2, 5, 7
Opp 13, 11, 7 (TD), 5, 2 (TD)
So he only had 9 carries between the 20's. And scoring two TDs on 3 carries inside the 10 is pretty good. Generally speaking, I think scoring 40% of the time you get carries inside the 5 is an excellent rate.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
So you’ll ignore everything else there because he ran through a turnstile DEN run D? Your choice I guess.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
I guess you don’t consider a sub 3.0 ypc (12 carries for 35 yds) against an average run D bad. I do under almost all circumstances.
Lynch and Collins didn’t even sniff 100yds. Only Kareem Hunt ran for 119 against them. Yet they are a turnstile run D all of a sudden because Crowell ran hard on them?
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
This is a little dangerous to do this early in the season. He probably is a large part of why those two defenses are bottom 10.
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Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Agreed, one feeds the other, although a 102 yd game shouldn’t significantly impact a 29th ranked DET D - it might even help it a bit.
That doesn’t take anything away from his performance, or lack thereof, in the other 3 games. Or from his lack if opportunity/workload.
I’m a Crowell owner - I want to see him succeed. But the numbers so far are a bit disconcerting.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Powell had 60 yards rushing also against Detroit - so the Jets as a team rushed for more than they are giving up on average, 145 yards (even including that game).
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
The DEN run D is atrocious this year. Bottom 3 in ypg allowed, ypc, and TDs surrendered. Not sure how you spin that into a solid unit.
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I was talking about Cleveland. Didn't dig into Miami game. But I guess Kareem Hunt sucks because he only got 18/44 against SF and 16/49 against LAC.
rockaction
Footballguy
The Denver D is hardly turnstile. It's just that the Jets have two very good backs. Nothing excellent under this coaching staff to convince the head coach to stick with a solitary back yet; but two very good backs. That's the situation.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
Not to take sides, but he did have four for zero in Jax. That helps his value in no way.
You're clearly missing the point that it is stupid to draw conclusions from such a small sample of games. 5 games is already small. Trying to pick and choose inside of that is a fool's errand. The fact you want to bicker over 16/34 vs. 18/44 speaks volumes.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
How soon can we start considering the data relevant? Define it with a threshold please. Bickering? I’m sorry that you feel that way about a point of view that doesn’t align with yours. Thanks for letting me know that I’m stupid, too. It’s been a pleasure having this discussion with you.
FWIW, I pulled him for Clement this week. I’ll be back for my whipping if I end up being wrong.
