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Isaiah Crowell

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11 minutes ago, Bayhawks said:

So, maybe Brees for Crow isn't really his value.  The other guy countered my official offer on the site (that we'd agreed to via text) by replacing Crowell with my Ingram:wall:

I did have another offer come through of Dalton for Crowell.  So, maybe his value is that of a streamable QB?  Or wuld Dalton be considered more than that this year?:shrug:

I think Trubisky and Dalton are close enough where you would just be giving Crowell away. Crowell is inconsistent but a serviceable back with obvious upside, he's worth more than Dalton.

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1 minute ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I think Trubisky and Dalton are close enough where you would just be giving Crowell away. Crowell is inconsistent but a serviceable back with obvious upside, he's worth more than Dalton.

Maybe; not sure if Mitch’s 1 game sold me, though.

Anyway, not trying to make this an asst coach post; just wanted to share the offer(s) I had for Crow.

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2 hours ago, Bayhawks said:

Maybe; not sure if Mitch’s 1 game sold me, though.

Anyway, not trying to make this an asst coach post; just wanted to share the offer(s) I had for Crow.

I think Dalton sounds about right (though I disagree that he's equal to Trubisky). A QB who you will start most weeks vs. a RB who, based on his performance so far, you will never feel totally comfortable starting. Or to put it another way, a mid- to low-QB1 for an RB3. I think of Brees as a Top 5 QB, so that would have been way better value.

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Basically there’s some games, based on script, that he’ll be startable.  And some games, based on script that he won’t.  Good luck.  

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34 minutes ago, unckeyherb said:

Basically there’s some games, based on script, that he’ll be startable.  And some games, based on script that he won’t.  Good luck.  

Reminds me of when that exhaustively researched book came out proving Barry Bonds used steroids and The Onion responded with this.

Seriously, the question with the "script" strategy is, can we predict it accurately ahead of time? It's not at all clear to me that we can.

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18 minutes ago, zftcg said:

Seriously, the question with the "script" strategy is, can we predict it accurately ahead of time? It's not at all clear to me that we can.

It's equal parts script and defense. Script can be difficult to accurately predict (no matter how obvious it may seem beforehand, ex: Min vs. Buf week 3), but defensive integrity is easier to predict as the season wears on and we've got larger samples to work with. At this point Indy isn't looking scary. I say start him with confidence this week. 

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Just now, FF Ninja said:

It's equal parts script and defense. Script can be difficult to accurately predict (no matter how obvious it may seem beforehand, ex: Min vs. Buf week 3), but defensive integrity is easier to predict as the season wears on and we've got larger samples to work with. At this point Indy isn't looking scary. I say start him with confidence this week. 

Man, you have a stronger stomach than I do. I may need to start him if Cooks doesn't clear the concussion protocol, but I'm a long way from feeling confident. You're right that we may gain more clarity as the season goes on, but right now I see a guy who has literally alternated good and bad weeks through the first five ... hey, maybe that's the tell! Only start him in odd-numbered weeks!

(Feel free to pay me retroactively for that trenchant analysis.) :D

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28 minutes ago, zftcg said:

Reminds me of when that exhaustively researched book came out proving Barry Bonds used steroids and The Onion responded with this.

Seriously, the question with the "script" strategy is, can we predict it accurately ahead of time? It's not at all clear to me that we can.

Crowell is not subject to gamescript. The Jets rotate Crowell and Powell in for series (give or take a breather here and there) and they are both used as three down backs when it's their series. They are used exactly the same - and it's just a matter of one of them breaking some big plays and getting hot.

Crowell is the more explosive and better overall back, but Powell is a tough runner and slightly better in the passing game. It will be difficult to predict but one would have to imagine that Crowell earned some extra run after last week.

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34 minutes ago, zftcg said:

Reminds me of when that exhaustively researched book came out proving Barry Bonds used steroids and The Onion responded with this.

Seriously, the question with the "script" strategy is, can we predict it accurately ahead of time? It's not at all clear to me that we can.

:lmao:

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2 minutes ago, rockaction said:

:lmao:


 

Quote

 

"Everyone in our front office has known about Bonds since the 2001 season," said San Francisco-area accounts-receivable secretary Mindy Harris of McCullers and Associates, Ltd. "People in our ninth-floor office, too, and all seven branch offices. None of us were sure exactly which kind of steroids he was on, but we were pretty sure it was the kind that causes you to gain 30 pounds of muscle in one offseason, get injured more easily, become slow-footed, shave your head to conceal your thinning hair, lash out at the media and fans, engage in violent and abrupt mood swings, grow taut tree-trunk-like neck muscles, expand your hatband by six inches, and hit 73 home runs in a single season."

"Come to think of it, we're all fairly certain he's on all of them," Harris added.

 

 

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It's a true RBBC. That's how it goes down in the AFC East with the Jets this year. Two good backs. Low floor, high ceiling. Welcome to it.  

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My favorite part of this is that somebody in the Jets building thinks Bell is the answer. 

That's why the Jets are the Jets.  :lmao:

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Just now, rockaction said:

My favorite part of this is that somebody in the Jets building thinks Bell is the answer. 

That's why the Jets are the Jets.  :lmao:

That would have been a move Tannenbaum would have made - he loved those splashy moves - which tells you that it was the wrong direction to go.

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Just now, Dr. Octopus said:

That would have been a move Tannenbaum would have made - he loved those splashy moves - which tells you that it was the wrong direction to go.

They just rushed for somewhere near three hundred and we need a running back?  

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1 minute ago, rockaction said:

They just rushed for somewhere near three hundred and we need a running back?  

I love Bell but at the time of those rumors I was saying RB is the one offensive position they're set at. It made no sense - especially under the circumstances that they aren't even a "win now" team.

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19 minutes ago, zftcg said:

Man, you have a stronger stomach than I do. I may need to start him if Cooks doesn't clear the concussion protocol, but I'm a long way from feeling confident. You're right that we may gain more clarity as the season goes on, but right now I see a guy who has literally alternated good and bad weeks through the first five ... hey, maybe that's the tell! Only start him in odd-numbered weeks!

(Feel free to pay me retroactively for that trenchant analysis.) :D

I'm not saying to expect top 12 RB production for the week, but I like his odds of getting double digit points this week. He's averaging 11.4 carries, 1.6 targets, and 1 TD per game.

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5 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I love Bell but at the time of those rumors I was saying RB is the one offensive position they're set at. It made no sense - especially under the circumstances that they aren't even a "win now" team.

Yeah, it's such a stretch. I wonder what Mehta was reporting on, or what his sources were. When the average fan can see the trouble with it, it's a problem.  

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1 minute ago, Snorkelson said:

Why is everyone in the dfs forum love Powell this week? Crow tired from running so far? 

It's because Soulfly3 is high on Crow. That's how you know you're done.  

Edited by rockaction
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3 minutes ago, Snorkelson said:

Why is everyone in the dfs forum love Powell this week? Crow tired from running so far? 

Maybe they're buying into the every other week theory (which is likely just coincidence).

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2 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Maybe they're buying into the every other week theory (which is likely just coincidence).

Or that Powell is simply “due”... which he kind of is. 

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2 hours ago, rockaction said:

It's because Soulfly3 is high on Crow. That's how you know you're done.  

it's a curse being this accurate

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3 hours ago, Snorkelson said:

Why is everyone in the dfs forum love Powell this week? Crow tired from running so far? 

:lol:

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On 10/9/2018 at 5:37 PM, Evilgrin 72 said:

I offered Aaron Rodgers and Crowell to an 0-5 team for David Johnson and his choice of either of his QBs (Mariota or Tannehill) and was instantly rejected. 

In a 16-team dynasty IDP, I offered Jameis Winston and Crowell for Cam Newton (guy has Pat Mahomes and Alex Smith and very thin at RB because of injuries). Rejected, and he said he didn't want to counter.

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41 minutes ago, phandango said:

In a 16-team dynasty IDP, I offered Jameis Winston and Crowell for Cam Newton (guy has Pat Mahomes and Alex Smith and very thin at RB because of injuries). Rejected, and he said he didn't want to counter.

Crazy.  Crowell is overall player #27 and RB #8 in my league.  And seems like nobody can trade him away...

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8 minutes ago, pinequick said:

Crazy.  Crowell is overall player #27 and RB #8 in my league.  And seems like nobody can trade him away...

Floor and usage. Have him on my team, starting him this week. 

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18 minutes ago, pinequick said:

Crazy.  Crowell is overall player #27 and RB #8 in my league.  And seems like nobody can trade him away...

I own him in two dynasties and I've tried trading him for a couple years. I don't think his value has ever been higher. No one wants him. He is the Eric Ebron of RBs. (I own Ebron in those same two leagues. No one wants him, either.)

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It's the curse of the J-E-S-T... Jest! Jest! Jest!

Seriously, Crowell is a great guy to stash for the play-offs.  Jets have a favorable play-off schedule and lots can happen between now and then...

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7 hours ago, pinequick said:

Crazy.  Crowell is overall player #27 and RB #8 in my league.  And seems like nobody can trade him away...

He just got traded for Golden Tate in my redraft standard league.

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15 hours ago, Snorkelson said:

Why is everyone in the dfs forum love Powell this week? Crow tired from running so far? 

Probably more to do with pricing, Powell is a few hundred dollars cheaper.

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15 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Crowell is not subject to gamescript. The Jets rotate Crowell and Powell in for series (give or take a breather here and there) and they are both used as three down backs when it's their series. They are used exactly the same - and it's just a matter of one of them breaking some big plays and getting hot.

Crowell is the more explosive and better overall back, but Powell is a tough runner and slightly better in the passing game. It will be difficult to predict but one would have to imagine that Crowell earned some extra run after last week.

This is a good post, but just to be clear, while game script might not impact his split with Powell, it does impact RB carries. If a game gets out of hand, I don't expect Crowell to get enough carries to put up good fantasy numbers. So like the Waldman article says, despite Buffalo having a good defense, game script will probably allow for enough volume to balance that out. The New England matchup could dictate more passing so he becomes a questionable start for that game.

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Just turned in a DNP (knee) yesterday.  Possibly a maintenance day, but after drilling down a bit I’m not seeing why he needs a maintenance day.  

He has only had 19 carries over the last 2 games.  Powell has outsnapped Crowell in every game this year, even the two blowout Ws.   Game script does not seem to affect his workload other than he gets a few more snaps (as does Powell) in blowout Ws, but his high carry mark was against CLE in a close game but still was only 16.

Crowell is averaging just over 11 carries a game.  He crapped the bed against the 2 top 10 run Ds NY has played - neither is top 5 - was bad against CLE (#16 run D) at 12 carries for 35 yds but was saved by 2 TDs.  Had his two good games against bottom 10 run Ds DEN and DET, but gained his 321 yds on only 25 carries on 49 snaps cumulative, with the 3 total TDs.

His ypc is awful (2.15 ypc) when he isn’t playing a bottom 10 run D.  He’s virtually ignored in the pass game.  

This week he gets #15 run D IND.  After seeing these stats broken down more deeply, I’m strongly thinking of sitting him for Clement this week.  He’s not getting nearly enough workload and needs a really bad run D or has to score 2 TDs in order to put up any kind of decent FF numbers.  Against an average run D this week, it seems like he’ll be TD dependent again.

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19 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

Just turned in a DNP (knee) yesterday.  Possibly a maintenance day, but after drilling down a bit I’m not seeing why he needs a maintenance day.  

He has only had 19 carries over the last 2 games.  Powell has outsnapped Crowell in every game this year, even the two blowout Ws.   Game script does not seem to affect his workload other than he gets a few more snaps (as does Powell) in blowout Ws, but his high carry mark was against CLE in a close game but still was only 16.

Crowell is averaging just over 11 carries a game.  He crapped the bed against the 2 top 10 run Ds NY has played - neither is top 5 - was bad against CLE (#16 run D) at 12 carries for 35 yds but was saved by 2 TDs.  Had his two good games against bottom 10 run Ds DEN and DET, but gained his 321 yds on only 25 carries on 49 snaps cumulative, with the 3 total TDs.

His ypc is awful (2.15 ypc) when he isn’t playing a bottom 10 run D.  He’s virtually ignored in the pass game.  

This week he gets #15 run D IND.  After seeing these stats broken down more deeply, I’m strongly thinking of sitting him for Clement this week.  He’s not getting nearly enough workload and needs a really bad run D or has to score 2 TDs in order to put up any kind of decent FF numbers.  Against an average run D this week, it seems like he’ll be TD dependent again.

What RBs have run for over 200 yds so far this year?

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18 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

Just turned in a DNP (knee) yesterday.  Possibly a maintenance day, but after drilling down a bit I’m not seeing why he needs a maintenance day.  

He has only had 19 carries over the last 2 games.  Powell has outsnapped Crowell in every game this year, even the two blowout Ws.   Game script does not seem to affect his workload other than he gets a few more snaps (as does Powell) in blowout Ws, but his high carry mark was against CLE in a close game but still was only 16.

Crowell is averaging just over 11 carries a game.  He crapped the bed against the 2 top 10 run Ds NY has played - neither is top 5 - was bad against CLE (#16 run D) at 12 carries for 35 yds but was saved by 2 TDs.  Had his two good games against bottom 10 run Ds DEN and DET, but gained his 321 yds on only 25 carries on 49 snaps cumulative, with the 3 total TDs.

His ypc is awful (2.15 ypc) when he isn’t playing a bottom 10 run D.  He’s virtually ignored in the pass game.  

This week he gets #15 run D IND.  After seeing these stats broken down more deeply, I’m strongly thinking of sitting him for Clement this week.  He’s not getting nearly enough workload and needs a really bad run D or has to score 2 TDs in order to put up any kind of decent FF numbers.  Against an average run D this week, it seems like he’ll be TD dependent again.

If you drill down a bit more, his Cleveland game wasn't really bad. Cleveland pinned them down near their own goal line a few times and he got stuck in those obvious rushing situations. He also had a lot of red zone touches, which are tougher with the shorter field and all:

Own 1, 2, 5, 7
Opp 13, 11, 7 (TD), 5, 2 (TD)

So he only had 9 carries between the 20's. And scoring two TDs on 3 carries inside the 10 is pretty good. Generally speaking, I think scoring 40% of the time you get carries inside the 5 is an excellent rate. 

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26 minutes ago, ldizzle said:

What RBs have run for over 200 yds so far this year?

 

So you’ll ignore everything else there because he ran through a turnstile DEN run D?  Your choice I guess.

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18 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

If you drill down a bit more, his Cleveland game wasn't really bad. Cleveland pinned them down near their own goal line a few times and he got stuck in those obvious rushing situations.

 

I guess you don’t consider a sub 3.0 ypc (12 carries for 35 yds) against an average run D bad.  I do under almost all circumstances.

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15 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

So you’ll ignore everything else there because he ran through a turnstile DEN run D?  Your choice I guess.

Lynch and Collins didn’t even sniff 100yds. Only Kareem Hunt ran for 119 against them. Yet they are a turnstile run D all of a sudden because Crowell ran hard on them?

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1 hour ago, Bronco Billy said:

Had his two good games against bottom 10 run Ds DEN and DET, but gained his 321 yds on only 25 carries on 49 snaps cumulative, with the 3 total TDs.

This is a little dangerous to do this early in the season. He probably is a large part of why those two defenses are bottom 10.

 

Edited by Dr. Octopus
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4 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

This is a little dangerous to do this early in the season. He probably is a large part of why those two defenses are bottom 10.

 

Agreed, one feeds the other, although a 102 yd game shouldn’t significantly impact a 29th ranked DET D - it might even help it a bit.

That doesn’t take anything away from his performance, or lack thereof, in the other 3 games.  Or from his lack if opportunity/workload.

I’m a Crowell owner - I want to see him succeed.  But the numbers so far are a bit disconcerting.

 

.

Edited by Bronco Billy
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1 minute ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

Agreed, one feeds the other, although a 102 yd game shouldn’t significantly impact a 29th ranked DET D - it might rven help it a bit.

Powell had 60 yards rushing also against Detroit - so the Jets as a team rushed for more than they are giving up on average, 145 yards (even including that game).

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18 minutes ago, ldizzle said:

Lynch and Collins didn’t even sniff 100yds. Only Kareem Hunt ran for 119 against them. Yet they are a turnstile run D all of a sudden because Crowell ran hard on them?

 

The DEN run D is atrocious this year.  Bottom 3 in ypg allowed, ypc, and TDs surrendered.  Not sure how you spin that into a solid unit.

 

.

Edited by Bronco Billy

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36 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

I guess you don’t consider a sub 3.0 ypc (12 carries for 35 yds) against an average run D bad.  I do under almost all circumstances.

I was talking about Cleveland. Didn't dig into Miami game. But I guess Kareem Hunt sucks because he only got 18/44 against SF and 16/49 against LAC.

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The Denver D is hardly turnstile. It's just that the Jets have two very good backs. Nothing excellent under this coaching staff to convince the head coach to stick with a solitary back yet; but two very good backs. That's the situation.  

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8 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

I was talking about Cleveland. Didn't dig into Miami game. But I guess Kareem Hunt sucks because he only got 18/44 against SF and 16/49 against LAC.

 

You’re right.  16 carries for 34 yds is much better.  Sorry for my mistake.

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3 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

You’re right.  16 carries for 34 yds is much better.  Sorry for my mistake.

Not to take sides, but he did have four for zero in Jax. That helps his value in no way.  

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