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Dynasty & Redraft: QB Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers

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FBG early rankings this week have Ben at 17! Behind guys like Hasselbeck, Manziel, and Alex Smith. I was shocked to see that. I know the matchup at Cinci isnt ideal, but they are hurting a bit in the defensive backfield with Pacman looking out, and Leon Hall looking very questionable. Coupled with the insane efficiency of the passing game, and the fact that per the same rankings he has 2 top 20 WRs to throw to this week (including number 3 overall), it seems very, very low.

Only QBs I'd personally consider starting over Ben this week are Cam, Brady, and Palmer. Maybe Wilson. And I would deliberate a bunch even on any of them. Johnny Manziel?

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FBG early rankings this week have Ben at 17! Behind guys like Hasselbeck, Manziel, and Alex Smith. I was shocked to see that. I know the matchup at Cinci isnt ideal, but they are hurting a bit in the defensive backfield with Pacman looking out, and Leon Hall looking very questionable. Coupled with the insane efficiency of the passing game, and the fact that per the same rankings he has 2 top 20 WRs to throw to this week (including number 3 overall), it seems very, very low.

Only QBs I'd personally consider starting over Ben this week are Cam, Brady, and Palmer. Maybe Wilson. And I would deliberate a bunch even on any of them. Johnny Manziel?

I noticed that too. Made absolutely no sense. Did no one see how he carved up Seattle, in Seattle? No way he's not an every week QB1.

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Look what Palmer did to Cincy a few weeks back. Cincy defense does cause a 30% plus drop in production to the avg QB, but that is not the case with elite Qbs. I think this (roeth's projections) is an example of over relying on statistical analysis and ignoring context.

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Patrick Daugherty at Rotoworld has Ben as the number 1 QB this week. Huge disparity in opinions between him and FBG.

http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/58694/57/week-14-rankings

ETA -

QB Notes: Ben Roethlisberger doesn’t have the best matchup for Week 14, but matchups haven’t mattered for Big Ben. Even if you include his injury-shortened affairs, Ben is averaging 338 weekly yards. That number skyrockets to400 since he returned from his foot issue three games ago. That includes a Week 10 game against the Browns where he didn’t expect to play, and a Week 12 visit to Seattle. Roethlisberger’s worst start of the season came against the Bengals in Week 8, but he was returning from a five-week absence. Sunday should be a different story.
Edited by ChuckLiddell

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I'm usually pessimistic about tough matchups but it really just seems like all Ds can do is try to contain this offense. Other than the stinker vs the Bengals his first game back from injury, 350 yards has been the floor for Ben. They are constantly attacking through the air and Brown/Bryant are so good. I'll brace myself for a bit of a letdown but I can't imagine there are more than a couple guys you'd actually consider over him next week assuming he comes out of this week healthy.

FWIW I posted this before last week but last week combined with reading more about how good Denver has been vs the pass has me contemplating benching Ben for Fitzpatrick. Not sure yet.

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Starting him next week since my opponent has Bryant. Every time he scores a Touchdown it'll sting less because I'm also getting points. Everything to Antonio Brown is fair game.

Only other option is Rivers. I'd rather roll with the guy playing for a playoff spot against a broken Ravens team.

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Rotoworld:

Ben Roethlisberger (shoulder) returned to Steelers practice Thursday, getting in a limited session.

Per beat writer Mark Kaboly, Roethlisberger was "very" limited. Roethlisberger is fully expected to start Sunday's game against the Broncos, but he'll be nowhere close to 100 percent, and likely missing Antonio Brown (concussion). Big Ben won't be more than a contrarian play in DFS leagues against the Broncos' imposing defense.

Source: Mark Kaboly on Twitter

Jan 14 - 3:48 PM

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Rotoworld:

Ben Roethlisberger (shoulder) will have the full playbook available to him for Sunday's Divisional Round game against the Broncos, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport.

Rapsheet notes Roethlisberger's arm won't be at full strength, which is understandable given the beating he took last week against the Bengals. However, Roethlisberger was a full participant at Friday's practice and played well enough to draw praise from teammates Martavis Bryant and Will Johnson. With Roethlisberger at less than 100 percent, we'd expect the Steelers to rely heavily on short passes. RB Fitzgerald Toussaint was targeted eight times against Cincinnati and should see a similar workload Sunday against Denver.

Source: Ian Rapoport on Twitter

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Rotoworld:

Ben Roethlisberger (shoulder) will have the full playbook available to him for Sunday's Divisional Round game against the Broncos, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport.

Rapsheet notes Roethlisberger's arm won't be at full strength, which is understandable given the beating he took last week against the Bengals. However, Roethlisberger was a full participant at Friday's practice and played well enough to draw praise from teammates Martavis Bryant and Will Johnson. With Roethlisberger at less than 100 percent, we'd expect the Steelers to rely heavily on short passes. RB Fitzgerald Toussaint was targeted eight times against Cincinnati and should see a similar workload Sunday against Denver.

Source: Ian Rapoport on Twitter

Here we go!

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I think that guy probably had 15 lbs he could lose. Look like Ben cheeseburger. He strikes me as having a similar lifestyle to babe Ruth. I'm sure he works hard because you have to in order to be successful in the nfl, but it doesn't really show with his body type.

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4 hours ago, BigSteelThrill said:

He's been there for a decade.

Let's be serious. 

Top 4 for the last 7-8 years (until last year) has pretty much been Rodgers, Brady, Manning and Brees.  With Manning now retired and Brees having dropped a tad, I think most would argue that Rodgers and Brady are 1a and 1b, with Cam and Wilson right behind. Roethlisberger would be in the next mix with Brees and Palmer (although I think Palmer is a bit of a product of the system).  That is how I see things currently.  At no point has Roethlisberger been a consensus top 3 NFL QB. 

Edited by Ghost Rider

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On 12/18/2015 at 8:29 AM, Ghost Rider said:

Since the start of 2014, Roethlisberger has started 25 games, and in 13 of those games, he has 0 or 1 touchdown pass.

I am not sure there is a more overrated and over drafted player in fantasy this year.He is being taken around pick 59 which is before Decker, Jordan Matthews, John Brown, Geo Bernard, etc. He is even being taken before Brady and Brees. Why someone would take Ben before Brees just does not compute with me. In a 6 pt per passing TD league, Ben's best ppg average for a season was 22.8. Brees' worst was 23.1 In a 4 pt per TD league, Ben's career best 18.8 ppg average is better than only 1 of Drew's last 8 seasons. Ben has topped 30 TDs twice is his career. Brees has done it 8 straight years. Ben has missed 20 games in his career. Brees has missed 3 games during that time span. Drew is old and I could see if people thought he was trending down, but he isn't. Over his 10 years in New Orleans, 2015 was the 7th highest ppg Brees has ever posted.

 

Plus there is the obvious reason that it is crazy to take a QB early. Kirk Cousins, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Tyrod Taylor, Carson Palmer, Andy Dalton, Blake Bortles, Matt Stafford. Those are all QBs that scored more ppg than Ben did in 2015

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3 hours ago, Ilov80s said:

I am not sure there is a more overrated and over drafted player in fantasy this year.He is being taken around pick 59 which is before Decker, Jordan Matthews, John Brown, Geo Bernard, etc. He is even being taken before Brady and Brees. Why someone would take Ben before Brees just does not compute with me. In a 6 pt per passing TD league, Ben's best ppg average for a season was 22.8. Brees' worst was 23.1 In a 4 pt per TD league, Ben's career best 18.8 ppg average is better than only 1 of Drew's last 8 seasons. Ben has topped 30 TDs twice is his career. Brees has done it 8 straight years. Ben has missed 20 games in his career. Brees has missed 3 games during that time span. Drew is old and I could see if people thought he was trending down, but he isn't. Over his 10 years in New Orleans, 2015 was the 7th highest ppg Brees has ever posted.

 

Plus there is the obvious reason that it is crazy to take a QB early. Kirk Cousins, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Tyrod Taylor, Carson Palmer, Andy Dalton, Blake Bortles, Matt Stafford. Those are all QBs that scored more ppg than Ben did in 2015

If you remove the game he got hurt in, he was #4 in ppg overall (fantasypros scoring) last year.

He was on pace for a league leading 5,448 yards passing those 11 full games... a year after a league leading 4,952.

Also the schedule this year isnt even half of what it was last year.

Edited by BigSteelThrill

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2 minutes ago, BigSteelThrill said:

If you remove the game he got hurt in, he was #4 in ppg overall (fantasypros scoirng) last year.

He was on pace for a league leading 5,448 yards passing those 11 full games... a year after a league leading 4,952.

Also the schedule this year isnt even half of what it was last year.

I don't know what quarter he was hurt in, but he had 24 pass attempts in the game he was hurt. You know who else had 4952 passing yards in 2014? 

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1 hour ago, Ilov80s said:

I don't know what quarter he was hurt in, but he had 24 pass attempts in the game he was hurt. You know who else had 4952 passing yards in 2014? 

He still had 11 full games pace for 5,448. (It was the first drive of the second half... so he was pacing for 384 yards passing in that game)

Those are his last two years and that offense is smoking hot... as he finally has a real offensive line around him.

1 hour ago, Ilov80s said:

You know who else had 4952 passing yards in 2014? 

Ben out ppg him that year also. Yet even I have Brees as the next QB behind Ben, so its awfully close.

Edited by BigSteelThrill

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46 minutes ago, BigSteelThrill said:

He still had 11 full games pace for 5,448. (It was the first drive of the second half... so he was pacing for 384 yards passing in that game)

Those are his last two years and that offense is smoking hot... as he finally has a real offensive line around him.

Ben out ppg him that year also. Yet even I have Brees as the next QB behind Ben, so its awfully close.

A. He was also on pace for 2 ints and 0 TDs that game. 

B. He didn't out point Brees (or Wilson) in my 6 pt per TD league in 2014 as Brees scored 2 more TDs. 

C. I removed the St. Louis game and in a 6 pt per TD league, he was 8th in scoring tied with Andy Dalton. A full 2.1 ppg behind Brees. 

I think we have discovered that Ben is one the most heavily impacted QBs when it comes to 6 pt vs 4th passing TDs. 

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And yet I can still see him above all those names you mentioned. Its not some travesty or anything.  Brady, Bernard, Mathews, etc.

Note* the offense (and Bens stats) keep improving each year under Haley.

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6 minutes ago, BigSteelThrill said:

And yet I can still see him above all those names you mentioned. Its not some travesty or anything.  Brady, Bernard, Mathews, etc.

Note* the offense (and Bens stats) keep improving each year under Haley.

Ben is going mid 5th to mid 6th. So if we remove the injury game, his ppg is 22.6. That's just 0.6 ppg ahead of Tyrod or 0.9 ppg ahead of Cousins. To me that slight edge does not at all justify a 5th round pick when you get very very similar QBs in double digit rounds. Ben's numbers from last year are absolutely doable with streaming as well. 

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1 minute ago, Ilov80s said:

Ben is going mid 5th to mid 6th. So if we remove the injury game, his ppg is 22.6. That's just 0.6 ppg ahead of Tyrod or 0.9 ppg ahead of Cousins. To me that slight edge does not at all justify a 5th round pick when you get very very similar QBs in double digit rounds. Ben's numbers from last year are absolutely doable with streaming as well. 

Unless you think it will be a higher separation from Ben to the next guys (even including Brady and Brees). Its 2016. Not 2015.

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10 minutes ago, BigSteelThrill said:

Unless you think it will be a higher separation from Ben to the next guys (even including Brady and Brees). Its 2016. Not 2015.

Ofcourse, if you think Ben is in for a career year, than go for it. I am trying not to predict career years as I feel it's gotten me into more trouble than it has actually panned out. 

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