The cost of Chinese production is rising already, and as they run out of either migrant workers or space close to ports it will continue to rise even more.
In fact the Chinese government wants to boost production in the interior, not to serve the rest of the world but to serve the 500m +/- rural inhabitants that 'progress' has left behind. They want to do this not out of social altruism but to remain in power.
If you want to talk long term then something like 3D printing might be a technology that could really shake things up, in manufacturing, in transport and logistics, in IT/networks. Everybody could produce everything - assuming the technology advances sufficiently.
Your new bicycle might be 3D printed in carbonfiber or titanium. You might rent the specs for a new set of plates, kitchen knives etc from Amazon and print them in your garage (or rent time on your neighborhood 3D printer). etc.
That would be a radically different world, a much more local world. Would that spell the end of the US - or the nation state in general?
Who knows. We may not live to see it, anyway
no. 3D printing is not the answer. I've been over this many times, it's kind of a pet peeve of mine. 3D printing is cool, it has it's place, but the days of a Star-Trek type replicator that can make anything is more fiction than science.
I would disagree. In fact as 3D printing gets cheaper we will see more innovation. I was just reading about a college engineering class that used a 3D printer and 300 dollars in parts to build a bionic arm for a 9 year old boy. 3D printing is going to be as revolutionary as the internet.
that's great and all, but making one-off, highly customized parts is not going to revolutionize any economies.
I agree that 3D printers aren't going to replace mass production of things in plastic or metal, etc.. What it could do, though, is make invention and innovation way easier and cheaper for those who have access to a printer. You have a brilliant idea for something without a 3D printer, some little gadget, and you either have to be an ace tinkerer/craftsman, or you have to go through the trouble and expense of having somebody else fabricate a prototype for you.
After that, we need do-it-youself patent applications.
You guys remind me of my father. I remember when cassettes first started. You could record but people weren't putting retail albums on them. According to him they'd never be any big deal and 8 tracks would continue on. Within a couple of years you couldn't find 8 tracks any more. I hate using buzz words but this is going to be completely
disruptive at so many levels it will be breathtaking.
Thank you for using that word. It was at the tip of my tongue all day yesterday and it was ticking me off badly.
I'm in the camp that it will be a gradual process, that for many years to come it will be for exotic stuff, hobbyists, tinkerers, inventors and other early adapters. All the while with the price coming down for the printer and with new materials and with the ability to print in multiple materials in close layers as the technology advances.
Not sure it will ever replace everything we are getting produced here or overseas (the more parts the more the tolerance decreases) but it certainly could have a large impact. E.g. Skype was called a disruptive technology but has still some ways to go before the conquest of the telephone companies.