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Damien Wiliams - RB - Oklahoma

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On 8/25/2019 at 11:41 AM, The Finist said:

What does Andy Reid think? 

He does not in the post season obviously. LOL! 

 

 

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4 hours ago, Faust said:

@Faust The second link just links to the Shark Pool. Just FYI. Hope things are going well, man. 

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I feel sorry for those teams who drafted him in the 4th round of dynasty startup drafts this offseason.  I'm using this as a data point to remind myself of how fragile the dynasty value of middling talents is. #starsandscrubs

He will still return value, just not what he would have... 

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On 6/5/2019 at 12:01 PM, bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

 

In dynasty. If im a contender i might buy in season if needing a boost at rb to compete/win the title..otherwise....i would sell right now...his value wont be higher.....the darwin thing is cute an all but i doubt he is the long term answer at rb for kc

 

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How are Williams owners feeling? Shady owners are already calling for him getting 60% of the touches and the goal line work. That would make Williams a shaky flex option a best. Overreacting or reality?

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1 minute ago, ponchsox said:

How are Williams owners feeling? Shady owners are already calling for him getting 60% of the touches and the goal line work. That would make Williams a shaky flex option a best. Overreacting or reality?

I might be overreacting as someone who rosters Williams, but I'd go 60% McCoy, too, until and unless Williams beats him out. That's the only thing I can think of.

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I am not excited about any of the backs in KC because I can see them sharing so many touches that they cancel each other out.

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Whoever gets GL is the most intriguing option and worth starting most weeks in such a powerful offense. But if Reid decides to split GL snaps too then this becomes a nightmare. 

 

I saw Williams going earlier in high stakes leagues than most regular leagues, there’s going to be some frustrated people out there today lol. 

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If I'm drafting today, I would definitely reach for McCoy - his history w/ Reid > age.  Wouldn't touch DWilliams or Thompson.

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23 minutes ago, PigSkinMan said:

But if Reid decides to split GL snaps too then this becomes a nightmare. 

 

 

He will

Im sad 😔 

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16 minutes ago, Cowboysfan8 said:

He will

Im sad 😔 

As sure as the sun rises in the east, Andy Reid & Bill Belichick will ruin the best laid plans of fantasy football managers. :doh: 

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17 minutes ago, tjnc09 said:

If I'm drafting today, I would definitely reach for McCoy - his history w/ Reid > age.  Wouldn't touch DWilliams or Thompson.

I would avoid the whole situation. 

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29 minutes ago, ponchsox said:

How are Williams owners feeling? Shady owners are already calling for him getting 60% of the touches and the goal line work. That would make Williams a shaky flex option a best. Overreacting or reality?

I'd be surprised if McCoy came in 8 days before their first game and got 60 percent. That feels like wishful thinking.  Someone might be asked to do that if it were an emergency, but it's a sucky thing to have to do 

I don't think McCoy was brought in to start at all, to be honest.  If they saw him as a clear upgrade, why would they risk letting him go to free agency when they could have just traded a low pick for him?  If another team had traded for him, they'd have lost out. If it had been the Texans, they'd have lost out twice.  They liked him at 3-4 million and no compensation, but not at 6 million and a 7th. That's almost exactly how much they liked hyde, who also wasn't brought in to start.

I think McCoy would like to earn the starting role, but I don't know that it's what he was brought in for. They needed a veteran starter they could trust in difficult situations, like a two minute drill at the end of a game.  

I also think they want to cap Williams' workload.  He got about a dozen carries a game and 5 receptions per week last year during his stretch as starter. I don't think they want him to be a 20 carry guy. Hunt was a 13-14 carry, 3-4 catch guy.  I've always assumed someone else would be needed to make up the difference.  McCoy might be coming in to replace what they had expected from hyde, and anything after that is gravy. 

Shady and Williams are similar backs in the sense that they're both 3 down guys who can catch the ball and score. He's a better natural fit than hyde.  I have yet to see any indication they think he's 

History has not been kind to backs over 30 who change teams.  I can't think of anyone except Peterson who went somewhere to start.  Tomlinson tried and it didn't go well. Emmitt got carries but was a shell of his old self.  McCoy looked more done than any of those guys did when they left.  That doesn't mean he's not capable of playing well, it just means the odds are against the bills letting him go if they thought he was still playing well, the chiefs wanting to give him lots of work at 31, and him being able to hold up and perform well for a full season. It's not impossible, but that's quite a parlay. 

So my take is that Williams will remain the starter but still be in that 10 to 12 carry range with 4 to 5 catches.  McCoy may have some games with a bunch of touches but he's not likely to be the rb1. And Thompson owners might not like to hear it, because they've been saying it all along about Williams, but it turns out Thompson was just a jag, too. 

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7 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

I'd be surprised if McCoy came in 8 days before their first game and got 60 percent. That feels like wishful thinking.  Someone might be asked to do that if it were an emergency, but it's a sucky thing to have to do 

I don't think McCoy was brought in to start at all, to be honest.  If they saw him as a clear upgrade, why would they risk letting him go to free agency when they could have just traded a low pick for him?  If another team had traded for him, they'd have lost out. If it had been the Texans, they'd have lost out twice.  They liked him at 3-4 million and no compensation, but not at 6 million and a 7th. That's almost exactly how much they liked hyde, who also wasn't brought in to start.

I think McCoy would like to earn the starting role, but I don't know that it's what he was brought in for. They needed a veteran starter they could trust in difficult situations, like a two minute drill at the end of a game.  

I also think they want to cap Williams' workload.  He got about a dozen carries a game and 5 receptions per week last year during his stretch as starter. I don't think they want him to be a 20 carry guy. Hunt was a 13-14 carry, 3-4 catch guy.  I've always assumed someone else would be needed to make up the difference.  McCoy might be coming in to replace what they had expected from hyde, and anything after that is gravy. 

Shady and Williams are similar backs in the sense that they're both 3 down guys who can catch the ball and score. He's a better natural fit than hyde.  I have yet to see any indication they think he's 

History has not been kind to backs over 30 who change teams.  I can't think of anyone except Peterson who went somewhere to start.  Tomlinson tried and it didn't go well. Emmitt got carries but was a shell of his old self.  McCoy looked more done than any of those guys did when they left.  That doesn't mean he's not capable of playing well, it just means the odds are against the bills letting him go if they thought he was still playing well, the chiefs wanting to give him lots of work at 31, and him being able to hold up and perform well for a full season. It's not impossible, but that's quite a parlay. 

So my take is that Williams will remain the starter but still be in that 10 to 12 carry range with 4 to 5 catches.  McCoy may have some games with a bunch of touches but he's not likely to be the rb1. And Thompson owners might not like to hear it, because they've been saying it all along about Williams, but it turns out Thompson was just a jag, too. 

Good stuff. Agree with all of it. And that's why I think Williams will still finish as a RB2. His ceiling is lowered from what it was, but if you have him paired with a solid RB1, especially in PPR, you should be in good shape. 

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2 minutes ago, IheartGuinness said:

Good stuff. Agree with all of it. And that's why I think Williams will still finish as a RB2. His ceiling is lowered from what it was, but if you have him paired with a solid RB1, especially in PPR, you should be in good shape. 

If Shady stays healthy there is no way Williams finishes a RB2. There will be a time share that will prevent that. You are banking on Shady breaking down. But in a time share those odds go down. 

 

 

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6 hours ago, rockaction said:

@Faust The second link just links to the Shark Pool. Just FYI. Hope things are going well, man. 

@rockaction ~ the link should be fixed now - thanks for the heads up on that glitch in the Matrix! Celebrating my wedding anniversary this week so thanks for the kind wishes!

~ Faust 

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43 minutes ago, tjnc09 said:

If I'm drafting today, I would definitely reach for McCoy - his history w/ Reid > age.  Wouldn't touch DWilliams or Thompson.

I am drafting today. I am reaching. 

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McCoy is a better back than Williams.  

Shady will take a few weeks to integrate, but it will be his backfield fit the second half of the year.  He’s just better than Williams.  

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1 minute ago, Todem said:

If Shady stays healthy there is no way Williams finishes a RB2. There will be a time share that will prevent that. You are banking on Shady breaking down. But in a time share those odds go down. 

Williams was a rb1.last year getting only 10-12 carries.  You don't need 20 carries a week to be a rb2. He might not score as many touchdowns, but i don't think anyone expected him to average 10 touchdowns per 6 games for the year.  8 to 10 carries for a little under 40.yards and 4-5 catches for 40 plus yards with a touchdown every other game would be 70 catches, 1280 yarda and 8 tds would be a substantial dropoff from last year's workload and those are rb1 numbers.  For you to expect him to fall below rb2 numbers means you think he's not just going to be in a committee, but be the guy getting there leftovers.  Which is fine, but that's not what you said. You said it would there's no way Williams can get rb2 numbers unless shady breaks down.  That's simply not true.  That's why i think this is a buying opportunity from scares Williams owners, and a selling opportunity for McCoy owners who just got a reprieve. 

 

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2 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

How early do you think? Late 3rd early 4th? Later?

That’s almost as bad as taking Williams in the second or third.

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16 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

How early do you think? Late 3rd early 4th? Later?

Well, according to my FBG cheat sheet, I can throw that part of the cheat sheet out.

I'd take him depending on how the draft moves, really. I don't fixate, so I can't really tell you. I think early fourth is a real reach from where I think he should be, which is late fifth/early sixth -- late third is sort of out of the question. 

eta* To wit about this: In a relatively standard league, FBG has Williams at RB25 and McCoy at RB52. That's somethin' to chew on. 

Edited by rockaction
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My guess is that McCoy and Williams will alternate series until one of them shows that they are the superior option.  Neither needs to be pulled for passing downs.  They might bring Darwin in for short yardage.

 

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32 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I would avoid the whole situation. 

I don't think avoiding a possible RB1 on a high powered offense at McCoy's late ADP is a good move.   There will be plenty of opportunities for fantasy points.  And I say that as a DW/DT owner.

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1 minute ago, tjnc09 said:

I don't think avoiding a possible RB1 on a high powered offense at McCoy's late ADP is a good move.   There will be plenty of opportunities for fantasy points.  And I say that as a DW/DT owner.

I'm a DW rosterer and I think the same thing. McCoy will put up numbers in that offense if given a chance, which is almost certain.

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3 minutes ago, zoonation said:

McCoy is a better back than Williams.  

Shady will take a few weeks to integrate, but it will be his backfield fit the second half of the year.  He’s just better than Williams.  

In his prime, yes Shady was better. He still has better moves. But Williams blocks better, is a good receiver, and runs better between the tackles. 

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10 minutes ago, ponchsox said:

That’s almost as bad as taking Williams in the second or third.

I'm not going to be taking McCoy at all I'm just curious where people think he will go now.

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8 minutes ago, zoonation said:

McCoy is a better back than Williams.  

Shady will take a few weeks to integrate, but it will be his backfield fit the second half of the year.  He’s just better than Williams.  

Everyone is a better back than Williams. 

Hyde was a better back than Williams.  He even caught passes for one season a couple years ago before playing for 5 different teams in less than 2 years.  

Darwin Thompson was drafted in the 6th and passed hyde so he's obviously better than Williams. Look how well he played in the second halves of a couple preseason games. 

McCoy is clearly better than williams. Yes, he's 31 and just got cut, and yes he's coming off a bad year, but he's obviously better because he was good a couple years ago.  

Williams, on the other hand, has been terrible. Except pretty much every time he's touched the ball in kc. Including this preseason. But he's terrible, according to the people who know better.  

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1 minute ago, bostonfred said:

 But he's terrible, according to the people who know better.  

I'm leaning towards really positive things about Williams but I'm bearish on his situation right now. 

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8 minutes ago, SoBeDad said:

In his prime, yes Shady was better. He still has better moves. But Williams blocks better, is a good receiver, and runs better between the tackles. 

You have deducted all of this from his 183 lifetime carries over 5 seasons in the NFL?  This guy seems to me like a very replaceable talent.  If he wasnt, we would know already and the team would not have just paid a 31 year old veteran double his salary. Sell to anyone willing to pay for him in my opinion.  Alex Collins 2019 (I was a sucker who paid for him last year).

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46 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

I'd be surprised if McCoy came in 8 days before their first game and got 60 percent. That feels like wishful thinking.  Someone might be asked to do that if it were an emergency, but it's a sucky thing to have to do 

I don't think McCoy was brought in to start at all, to be honest.  If they saw him as a clear upgrade, why would they risk letting him go to free agency when they could have just traded a low pick for him?  If another team had traded for him, they'd have lost out. If it had been the Texans, they'd have lost out twice.  They liked him at 3-4 million and no compensation, but not at 6 million and a 7th. That's almost exactly how much they liked hyde, who also wasn't brought in to start.

I think McCoy would like to earn the starting role, but I don't know that it's what he was brought in for. They needed a veteran starter they could trust in difficult situations, like a two minute drill at the end of a game.  

I also think they want to cap Williams' workload.  He got about a dozen carries a game and 5 receptions per week last year during his stretch as starter. I don't think they want him to be a 20 carry guy. Hunt was a 13-14 carry, 3-4 catch guy.  I've always assumed someone else would be needed to make up the difference.  McCoy might be coming in to replace what they had expected from hyde, and anything after that is gravy. 

Shady and Williams are similar backs in the sense that they're both 3 down guys who can catch the ball and score. He's a better natural fit than hyde.  I have yet to see any indication they think he's 

History has not been kind to backs over 30 who change teams.  I can't think of anyone except Peterson who went somewhere to start.  Tomlinson tried and it didn't go well. Emmitt got carries but was a shell of his old self.  McCoy looked more done than any of those guys did when they left.  That doesn't mean he's not capable of playing well, it just means the odds are against the bills letting him go if they thought he was still playing well, the chiefs wanting to give him lots of work at 31, and him being able to hold up and perform well for a full season. It's not impossible, but that's quite a parlay. 

So my take is that Williams will remain the starter but still be in that 10 to 12 carry range with 4 to 5 catches.  McCoy may have some games with a bunch of touches but he's not likely to be the rb1. And Thompson owners might not like to hear it, because they've been saying it all along about Williams, but it turns out Thompson was just a jag, too. 

I hope Williams kills it in wk 1 so I can try to trade him 

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Just now, ChuckLiddell said:

You have deducted all of this from his 183 lifetime carries over 5 seasons in the NFL?  This guy seems to me like a very replaceable talent.  If he wasnt, we would know already and the team would not have just paid a 31 year old veteran double his salary. Sell to anyone willing to pay for him in my opinion.  Alex Collins 2019 (I was a sucker who paid for him last year).

This seems like it's jumping the gun. Williams was stuck in Miami and has only had that organization evaluate him. We don't really know what Williams can or can't do on a neutral team in a neutral situation. What we do know is what he did in KC last year, which is the closest approximation to this year that we have, and he was lights out. 

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14 minutes ago, tjnc09 said:

I don't think avoiding a possible RB1 on a high powered offense at McCoy's late ADP is a good move.   There will be plenty of opportunities for fantasy points.  And I say that as a DW/DT owner.

That’s one perspective for sure.

An alternate perspective is avoiding a 31 year old RB who’s playing in a shared backfield for a coach who doesn’t GAF about your fantasy team, while having to invest a 3rd or 4th round pick.

Partly due to age & partly due to ADP, I’m unwilling to invest that kind of draft equity in an aging RB.

whether he’s a “RB1” or not is a debate for another topic. 

If you think McCoy is worth the risk for the potential reward, by all means draft him. There are other players at his ADP I like better. :shrug:

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1 minute ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

That’s one perspective for sure.

An alternate perspective is avoiding a 31 year old RB who’s playing in a shared backfield for a coach who doesn’t GAF about your fantasy team, while having to invest a 3rd or 4th round pick.

Partly due to age & partly due to ADP, I’m unwilling to invest that kind of draft equity in an aging RB.

whether he’s a “RB1” or not is a debate for another topic. 

If you think McCoy is worth the risk for the potential reward, by all means draft him. There are other players at his ADP I like better. :shrug:

This

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6 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

Everyone is a better back than Williams. 

Hyde was a better back than Williams.  He even caught passes for one season a couple years ago before playing for 5 different teams in less than 2 years.  

Darwin Thompson was drafted in the 6th and passed hyde so he's obviously better than Williams. Look how well he played in the second halves of a couple preseason games. 

McCoy is clearly better than williams. Yes, he's 31 and just got cut, and yes he's coming off a bad year, but he's obviously better because he was good a couple years ago.  

Williams, on the other hand, has been terrible. Except pretty much every time he's touched the ball in kc. Including this preseason. But he's terrible, according to the people who know better.  

He had 50 carries last year, and that was a career high.  You make all of those statements sound outlandish, but all of them are actually arguable.  This is still Damien Friggin Williams, right?  The guy is a journeyman who only sniffed a field last year because one guy kicked a woman, and another guy got broken in his first game filling in.  If you listen to some of the logic on here you woudl think we were discussing Walter Payton in his prime.  This guy spent the first 4.5 years of his 5 year career in complete anonymity, and now it is all of a sudden a ridiculous notion to think that any other RB on the roster can carry his jock.  Its silly.

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What is McCoy's new ADP? We can't possibly know that yet, can we? 

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Just now, ChuckLiddell said:

This guy spent the first 4.5 years of his 5 year career in complete anonymity

This is a little hyperbolic. If you played fantasy, you knew who Damien was. Locked in committee, usually. Nobody is claiming that he's incredible. But he did a complete bang-up job last year for KC. Like league-winning stuff, fantasy-wise.  

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5 minutes ago, rockaction said:

This seems like it's jumping the gun. Williams was stuck in Miami and has only had that organization evaluate him. We don't really know what Williams can or can't do on a neutral team in a neutral situation. What we do know is what he did in KC last year, which is the closest approximation to this year that we have, and he was lights out. 

Lamar Miller and Kenyon Drake have produced reasonable numbers inMiami.  Even Frank Gore was decent at age 35.  The whole Miami excuse is tired.  He was also 3rd string in KC with a very competent staff who didnt even have him ahead of Spencer Ware.  If Hunt isnt a putz and Ware didnt break, most people would not know this guys name.

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2 minutes ago, rockaction said:

This is a little hyperbolic. If you played fantasy, you knew who Damien was. Locked in committee, usually. Nobody is claiming that he's incredible. But he did a complete bang-up job last year for KC. Like league-winning stuff, fantasy-wise.  

Is it hyperbole to state that his career high in carries is 50?  And that was last year.  So talented but nobody saw fit to give him more than 50 carries in 5 years?

Edited by ChuckLiddell

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https://mobile.twitter.com/GrahamBarfield

The good news for Damien Williams: The Chiefs use zone runs as the base of their rushing attack, and there is no doubt McCoy struggled last season. Per PFF, McCoy averaged 3.1 YPC on inside & outside zone runs last year — tying LeGarrette Blount for second-worst among RBs.

Edited by ponchsox
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DW also had that nice 60+ TD catch and run in preseason which moved him up drafts boards even more. 

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18 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

Everyone is a better back than Williams. 

Hyde was a better back than Williams.  He even caught passes for one season a couple years ago before playing for 5 different teams in less than 2 years.  

Darwin Thompson was drafted in the 6th and passed hyde so he's obviously better than Williams. Look how well he played in the second halves of a couple preseason games. 

McCoy is clearly better than williams. Yes, he's 31 and just got cut, and yes he's coming off a bad year, but he's obviously better because he was good a couple years ago.  

Williams, on the other hand, has been terrible. Except pretty much every time he's touched the ball in kc. Including this preseason. But he's terrible, according to the people who know better.  

I appreciate what you are saying here Fred.

But McCoy is without question echelons better RB than Williams is unless McCoy is truly washed up.

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9 minutes ago, rockaction said:

What is McCoy's new ADP? We can't possibly know that yet, can we? 

He has an adp of 92.50 in BB10s (previously MFL10s) in today's drafts. The earliest he has been drafted is 77.  The latest he has been drafted is 117.   There have been 10 drafts so far today.

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1 minute ago, Biabreakable said:

I appreciate what you are saying here Fred.

But McCoy is without question echelons better RB than Williams is unless McCoy is truly washed up.

Williams is right in his prime and McCoy is at that age, in a body-driven sport, to have his body decline. He might not even be washed up to have lost enough of an edge to be behind a guy in his prime. 

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Just now, rockaction said:

Williams is right in his prime and McCoy is at that age, in a body-driven sport, to have his body decline. He might not even be washed up to have lost enough of an edge to be behind a guy in his prime. 

Its possible.

I thought McCoy looked very much himself in most recent preseason game.

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1 minute ago, Biabreakable said:

Its possible.

I thought McCoy looked very much himself in most recent preseason game.

I thought McCoy looked good the year before last, which I think we can throw out as a mulligan stinker. Unless it was him losing it. But he looked aight in the preseason.

Edited by rockaction

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8 minutes ago, ChuckLiddell said:

Is it hyperbole to state that his career high in carries is 50?  And that was last year.  So talented but nobody saw fit to give him more than 50 carries in 5 years?

Yes, because he had 35 carries in the playoffs.  

It was also hyperbolic to say anyone is comparing him to Walter Payton. Nobody has. Veach called him a "borderline starter" when they signed him before last year, which was a compliment - they had been looking for a backup and thought he was better than a "backup". That's all i think he is now. I just think that's good enough to get fantasy relevant production.  

You don't need to make things up to make your point 

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