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Damien Wiliams - RB - Oklahoma

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32 minutes ago, ChuckLiddell said:

He had 50 carries last year, and that was a career high.  You make all of those statements sound outlandish, but all of them are actually arguable.  This is still Damien Friggin Williams, right?  The guy is a journeyman who only sniffed a field last year because one guy kicked a woman, and another guy got broken in his first game filling in.  If you listen to some of the logic on here you woudl think we were discussing Walter Payton in his prime.  This guy spent the first 4.5 years of his 5 year career in complete anonymity, and now it is all of a sudden a ridiculous notion to think that any other RB on the roster can carry his jock.  Its silly.

Arian Foster came out of nowhere and was undrafted.  Sometimes a player just needs a chance to carry the load.  Foster broke out in his 2nd year, not later, but he wasn't considered a big time talent coming out of college.

Edited by JohnnyU
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1 minute ago, rockaction said:

I thought McCoy looked good the year before last, which I think we can throw out as a mulligan stinker. Unless it was him losing it. But he looked aight in the preseason.

Its the kind of thing where maybe you worry about a 31 year old RB wearing down more quickly perhaps.

Not saying McCoy completely displaces Williams who is a better blocker than McCoy. I think that is about the only thing he does better than McCoy though.

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1 minute ago, bostonfred said:

Yes, because he had 35 carries in the playoffs.  

It was also hyperbolic to say anyone is comparing him to Walter Payton. Nobody has. Veach called him a "borderline starter" when they signed him before last year, which was a compliment - they had been looking for a backup and thought he was better than a "backup". That's all i think he is now. I just think that's good enough to get fantasy relevant production.  

You don't need to make things up to make your point 

Not sure what I made up, but OK.  I never said anybody compared him to Payton, I said they way you spoke about him made it sound like we were discussing Payton.  Like everyones statements that another RB may be a better player were so irrational to you, when we are comparing those players to a guy with barely 200 total carries to his name over 5 seasons and a post season who was a third stringer last year in his 5th season in the NFL.

To me, none of the statments that you made sound ridiculous actually were ridiculous.  Not when we are discussing Damien Williams.  

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5 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

Arian Foster came out of nowhere. 

This is fantastic

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11 minutes ago, ChuckLiddell said:

In his 6th season?

No, his 2nd season, but he did go undrafted. 

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7 minutes ago, cobalt_27 said:

This is fantastic

My point was that there are RBs that don't have a great pedigree that turn into stars.  Foster went undrafted.

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1 minute ago, JohnnyU said:

No, his 2nd season, but he did go undrafted. 

Arian Foster as a rookie in 6 games had more carries (54) than Damien Williams has had in any season.  In his second season alone he had more than 100 more carries than Williams has had in 5 seasons plus a post season.  Not a great comp.

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1 minute ago, ChuckLiddell said:

Arian Foster as a rookie in 6 games had more carries (54) than Damien Williams has had in any season.  In his second season alone he had more than 100 more carries than Williams has had in 5 seasons plus a post season.  Not a great comp.

Perhaps not, but Foster was so thought of that he went undrafted.  No one really saw that coming from Foster and if they said they did, they're lying. 

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1 minute ago, JohnnyU said:

Perhaps not, but Foster was so thought of that he went undrafted.  No one really saw that coming from Foster and if they said they did, they're lying. 

Agreed but not sure its relevant.  Foster didnt toil around on the fringes of rosters for 5 years before he all of a sudden became an irreplaceable talent.

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32 minutes ago, SoBeDad said:

DW also had that nice 60+ TD catch and run in preseason which moved him up drafts boards even more. 

3rd to a 2nd in 24 hours. 

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5 minutes ago, ChuckLiddell said:

Agreed but not sure its relevant.  Foster didnt toil around on the fringes of rosters for 5 years before he all of a sudden became an irreplaceable talent.

Could it be because he got the chance to be the main ball carrier and Williams hasn't.  Hey, I don't own Williams in any league but I'm pretty sure he could be a stud in that offense if given the chance.  But with Shady now on the team I'm afraid that chance has slipped away again.   I'm glad I don't have Williams now.  I did trade him earlier in the off-season for a 2nd rd rookie pick that should be a high one.

Edited by JohnnyU

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6 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

3rd to a 2nd in 24 hours. 

Anyone who spends either a 2nd rd or 3rd rd pick on Williams has lost their mind.  I wouldn't take him in the 4th or 5th round either.

Edited by JohnnyU
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Just now, JohnnyU said:

Could it be because he got the chance to be the main ball carrier and Williams hasn't.  Hey, I don't own Williams in any league but I'm pretty sure he could be a stud in that offense if given the chance.  But with Shady now on the team I'm afraid that chance has slipped away again. 

I think a lot of average NFL RBs can be studs in that offense including him.  That was never really a point I was arguing.  My point was moreso that he is just that - an average NFL RB.  Replaceable and unspectacular.  McCoy is over the hill, but he IMO can also shine in that offense.  As could a 6th round rookie that does seem to pop when you watch him play.  Replaceable, and likely to be replaced - if it hasnt already happened.  If I had him on a roster I would try to find someone like some of the people posting on these boards and sell him while he is hot because I think he is going to wither away into Alex Collinsville.

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8 minutes ago, ChuckLiddell said:

Agreed but not sure its relevant.  Foster didnt toil around on the fringes of rosters for 5 years before he all of a sudden became an irreplaceable talent.

DWilliams had earned more playing time but got hurt IIRC.  His issue wasn’t lack of talent, it was lack of health and availability. 

 As an undrafted free agent, he actually won the starter job. His talent was apparent. 

 I don’t recall a single moment that Williams “toiled on the fringes“ of Miami’s roster. 

 Maybe I am misremembering… 

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Just now, Hot Sauce Guy said:

DWilliams had earned more playing time but got hurt IIRC.  His issue wasn’t lack of talent, it was lack of health and availability. 

 As an undrafted free agent, he actually won the starter job. His talent was apparent. 

 I don’t recall a single moment that Williams “toiled on the fringes“ of Miami’s roster. 

 Maybe I am misremembering… 

I am a die hard Dolphins fan.  None of this sounds accurate in any way.

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4 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

Anyone who spends either a 2nd rd or 3rd rd pick on Williams has lost their mind.  I wouldn't take him in the 4th or 5th round either.

 Me either. When I first started marking he was a early to mid fourth rounder, which I thought was a pretty good value considering the lack of depth on the Kansas City roster. 

 As my draft got closer, and he crept into the third round, I thought it was a bit late for my tastes. Guys around him like Aaron Jones, Mack, Fournette, and Chris Carson were more appealing to me  for that price. 

 I understand the allure of getting the starting running back for the chiefs high flying offense though.  I don’t fault anyone for the pic… But yeah, he went to .10 in my IDP draft and I thought that was a ridiculous reach.  In hindsight, that owner  is probably less than thrilled with his investment. 

 

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7 minutes ago, ChuckLiddell said:

I am a die hard Dolphins fan.  None of this sounds accurate in any way.

http://dailydolphin.blog.palmbeachpost.com/2018/03/24/2018-nfl-free-agents-damien-williams-curious-departure-from-miami-dolphins/

 Maybe not as die hard as you think? :shrug:

 

Quote

He leaves after becoming quite a success story for general manager Chris Grier and the organization after making the roster as an undrafted free agent in 2014 and putting himself in position to take over as the starting running back last season. Kansas City signed him to a one-year, $1.5 million contract Thursday.

Things really took off for Williams when he met a coach who knew how to use him. One of Adam Gase’s first undertakings after taking over the Dolphins in January 2016 was to sift through the roster for hidden gems. At Ryan Tannehill’s suggestion, he explored whether Williams had been underutilized by the previous coaching staffs.

He played a career-high 17 percent of the offensive snaps that year and had 115 yards rushing, 249 yards receiving and a career-high six total touchdowns. That was third on the team behind Kenny Stills (nine touchdowns) and Jay Ajayi (six).

Gase spoke of Williams as one of “his” guys and was drawn to his confidence and enthusiasm.

“That’s a guy who loves this sport,” Gase said in November 2016. “He loves competing. He loves practice. When you find a guy who practices the way he does, it’s hard to find that.

“Practice gets monotonous, especially at this point in the season, but he’s always the same guy. He’s always competing, always talking, gives a hard time to the linebackers. He’s a fun guy to be around every day.”

Williams’ relationship with the organization grew complicated in the ensuing offseason, when he wasn’t thrilled about the prospect of playing on the team tender of $1.8 million coming off what he felt was a promising season.

He visited the rival Patriots as a restricted free agent that offseason, but did not come away with an offer sheet. When the deadline passed for other teams to get involved, he deliberately put off signing his tender in protest of the Dolphins not giving him a better deal.

He eventually moved on, though, signed the contract and reported for all of Organized Team Activities, minicamp and training camp. Williams said last season any frustration about the way things went in Spring 2017 were behind him.

“We’re all good,” he said in December. “I’m all good.”

He took it another step by saying he had every intention of remaining with the Dolphins, though at the time he declined to delve too deeply into that because it was during the season and all his attention was on trying to come back from a separated shoulder.

That wasn’t surprising from Williams, who was a frequent recipient of the team’s War Daddy t-shirts. Those are awarded for team-first, gritty performances in games.

When Miami traded Jay Ajayi at the end of October, Gase installed a two-man backfield of Williams and Kenyan Drake that looked like the ideal combination of running backs he wanted. Both are fast and both are better receivers than Ajayi.

Williams, who still worked on special teams as well, was the starter and had 202 total yards and a touchdown in three full games before suffering the shoulder injury against New England on Thanksgiving weekend.

He wanted to return as quickly as possible, but was unable to do so. The Dolphins held him out of the final game of the year, which was meaningless because they’d already been eliminated from the playoff race.

Drake was tremendous once he took over the bulk of the snaps at running back and closed the year with 594 total yards and two touchdowns over the final five games. During that run, Williams was one of his biggest supporters in the locker room and on the sideline.

Williams also appeared to have a good relationship with Gase until the end. A month ago, he pointed back to Williams’ consistent support of Drake, and vice versa.

“Both those guys did a really good job,” Gase said. “They fed off each other. They were happy for each other when they had success.”

Williams had surgery on his shoulder after the season and could miss Organized Team Activities and minicamp for the Chiefs this offseason. While that almost certainly lowered his market in free agency, he is expected to be fully recovered in time for training camp.

Whatever the reason, the Dolphins opted to sort through cheaper running backs near the end of their careers this offseason rather than re-sign Williams. They brought in DeMarco Murray for a visit and ultimately signed Frank Gore yesterday. Gore turns 35 this spring, which is 10 years older than Williams.

While this might not have been the only factor, Gore is a bit cheaper for the cash-strapped Dolphins than Williams.

Even with him taking a pay cut from $1.8 to 1.5 million from last year in signing with Kansas City, that’s a bigger salary cap hit than paying Gore the veteran minimum. Gore will get $1 million in salary, but his cap hit will be even smaller. Last year’s cap hit for the veteran minimum on players with 10 or more years of experience, for example, was $615,000 with the possibility of an $80,000 bonus.

Perhaps that savings was worth it to Miami’s management now, but during the season, Gase might lament that one of his favorite weapons slipped away when it wouldn’t have taken much to keep him.

 earned the starting job, separated his shoulder, lost the job to Drake, never regained the starting job. 

 Sounds pretty accurate to me. 👍🏼

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy

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1 minute ago, ChuckLiddell said:

I think a lot of average NFL RBs can be studs in that offense including him.  That was never really a point I was arguing.  My point was moreso that he is just that - an average NFL RB.  Replaceable and unspectacular.  McCoy is over the hill, but he IMO can also shine in that offense.  As could a 6th round rookie that does seem to pop when you watch him play.  Replaceable, and likely to be replaced - if it hasnt already happened.  If I had him on a roster I would try to find someone like some of the people posting on these boards and sell him while he is hot because I think he is going to wither away into Alex Collinsville.

I hear what you are saying, and don't think you're totally off base. But watching Williams play in Miami, I remember him standing out to me and thinking at the time, wow that guy looks good. Who is he?

Then he flashed elitely once finally given the chance with a real team last year.

Then this off-season, I Iearned he actually has elite measurables for big (225 lb) RB. I was actually fairly surprised by his weight, as watching him I thought he was more in the 205-210 range, given the way he moved.

Durability and now McCoy are my biggest concerns. I don't agree that he's a JAG talent.

BTW, this is coming from a non-Williams owner who swooped McCoy in a drunken stupor last night. Sometimes you go to bed with Bo Derek and wake with Bo Diddly. Not sure which I woke up with today.

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48 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

I appreciate what you are saying here Fred.

But McCoy is without question echelons better RB than Williams is unless McCoy is truly washed up.

2016 McCoy was without question better than Williams. No doubt.  

2016 McCoy averaged 5.4 yarda per carry at age 28.

2017 McCoy averaged 4.0 at age 29, the worst of his career.  

2018 McCoy averaged 3.2.

2019 McCoy got cut.  He wasn't offered a pay cut. He was put on the trade market and nobody traded for him.  He got cut outright, and took less money to sign somewhere else 

McCoy did have a nice preseason game.  So did Demaryius Thomas. So did Emmanuel Sanders (who i also think will suck). You know who didn't have a good preseason?  Most actual starters. 

It's not unreasonable to say "McCoy was a stud, and if he's got something left in the tank he could take that job". I would totally buy that.  

It's not unreasonable to say "I was never sold on Williams and expect significant regression from his numbers last year". But I would note that his ADP baked in regression.  Nobody projected him for 80 catches, over 1600 total yards and 27 touchdowns, which is the pace he set last year. 

It's not unreasonable to say that McCoy signing for the same money as hyde the same day they traded hyde means they think that McCoy's better than Hyde.  That's almost certainly true (unless they really liked what they got back from the Texans).

What is unreasonable is assuming that the chiefs think that McCoy is better than Williams. It's also unreasonable to think that McCoy will play better than Williams. In fact, McCoy played worse last year than Williams did the year before he joined the chiefs, and he's been trending downward for 3 years.  

It's also unreasonable to think that a team signing someone who got cut intends to start them.  How often does that happen, that a 31 year old veteran gets cut and then signs somewhere on August 31st and starts for his new team? 

When I see a huge overreaction, I think it's a buying opportunity. Sometimes that overreaction ends up being correct and I'm wrong, but in the long run I think I'll be right more often then I'm wrong on things like this. 

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7 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Did you read the article or just look at the headline?  The only reason Williams was ever even discussed was because Jay Ajayi was traded mid season.  Then Drake and Williams were in a "split" but it was apparent who the better player was.  This is a fluff piece from a guy I have never heard of talking about how Adam Gase called him "his guy".  Adam Gase.  

Williams was thrust into a starting role with KC due to happenstance.  He had a chance to be thrust into that same role in Miami when Ajayi was traded, but could not distinguish himself from Kenyon Drake.  

You can feel free to live your life thinking that Damien Williams issue in Miami was not a lack of talent if it helps you, but in my opinion it was.  He was third string there too.  

Edited by ChuckLiddell

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3 minutes ago, ChuckLiddell said:

Did you read the article or just look at the headline?  The only reason Williams was ever even discussed was because Jay Ajayi was traded mid season.  Then Darke and Williams were in a "split" but it was apparent who the better player was.  This is a fluff peice from a guy I have never heard of talking about how Adam Gase called him "his guy".  Adam Gase.  

Williams was thrust into a starting role with KC due to happenstance.  He had a chance to be thrust into that same role in Miami when Ajayi was traded, but coudl not distinguish himself from Kenyon Drake.  

You can feel free to live your life thinking that Damien Williams issue in Miami was not a lack of talent if it helps you, but in my opinion i twas.  He was third string there too.  

 I read and then quoted of the article right above you.  And incredibly, it describes exactly the scenario that I remembered happening at the time. And I’m not even a Miami fan. 

It describes exactly what I said. He earned the starting job, then got hurt and got passed up by Drake who was healthy.  Did you read the article?  It’s OK to admit you were wrong. 

 But by all means please disparage the article.  :rolleyes: 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy

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7 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

 I read and then quote of the article right above you. It describes exactly what I said. He earned the starting job, then got hurt and got passed up by Drake who was healthy.  Did you read the article? 

I did, and it did say that he started 3 games - you are right, my bad.  But please.  He started because the starter was traded mid season and he lasted 3 games.  I know that was not your point - I get it.  But again, he started 3 games because the starter was traded.  Thats different than "earning the starting job".  Can we agree on that?  Or did Jeff Driksell earn a starting job in Cincy last year too?  When Drake took over it was clear who the better player was.  And we are talking about Kenyon Drake.

 

ETA - He was beat out last year by 35 year old Frank Gore.   $1.5M from KC.  Did every GM in the NFL miss something here?  Not the same as missing it on a rookie.  This is a guy with 4 years of NFL film who was beat out by a 35 year old RB, and was paid $1.5M.

Edited by ChuckLiddell
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19 minutes ago, ChuckLiddell said:

I am a die hard Dolphins fan.  None of this sounds accurate in any way.

Tbh this explains your super bias against Williams. Not blaming you really, as I’d probably feel similar after seeing a guy underperform for years on my team then gets major hype on another.  

Edited by hamsterdam
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2 minutes ago, ChuckLiddell said:

I did, and it did say that he started 3 games - you are right, my bad.  But please.  He started because the starter was traded mid season and he lasted 3 games.  I know that was not your point - I get it.  But again, he started 3 games because the starter was traded.  Thats different than "earning the starting job".  Can we agree on that?  Or did Jeff Driksell earn a starting job in Cincy last year too?  When Drake took over it was clear who the better player was.  And we are talking about Kenyon Drake.

 They traded the other player because they felt that Williams could be the starter. 

 Look, you’re a Dolphins fan so you have a hard enough. I’ll just leave this one alone. 

;) 

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1 minute ago, hamsterdam said:

Tbh this explains your super bias against Williams. Not blaming you really, as I’d probably feel similar after seeing a guy underperform for years on my team. 

 He performed pretty well when he was playing. The separated shoulder was  The beginning of the end to Williams career in Miami. 

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4 minutes ago, ChuckLiddell said:

ETA - He was beat out last year by 35 year old Frank Gore.   $1.5M from KC.  Did every GM in the NFL miss something here?  Not the same as missing it on a rookie.  This is a guy with 4 years of NFL film who was beat out by a 35 year old RB, and was paid $1.5M.

 Frank Gore is a living legend though.  To come full circle, technically, Frank Gore just beat out LeSean McCoy in Buffalo.  😂

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1 minute ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

 He performed pretty well when he was playing. The separated shoulder was  The beginning of the end to Williams career in Miami. 

He never averaged 4 YPC in Miami, and that was with limited carries which often leads to an inflated YPC.  

I have zero bias due to my Miami fandom.  None.  I got to see him though.  He was JAG, and he did live on the fringe of the roster as a very low compensation third stringer who as noted had a tough time staying healthy.

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6 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

 They traded the other player because they felt that Williams could be the starter. 

 Look, you’re a Dolphins fan so you have a hard enough. I’ll just leave this one alone. 

;) 

I dont believe this is true and even if it is...Adam Gase.  He was clearly mistaken.

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1 minute ago, ChuckLiddell said:

He never averaged 4 YPC in Miami, and that was with limited carries which often leads to an inflated YPC.  

I have zero bias due to my Miami fandom.  None.  I got to see him though.  He was JAG, and he did live on the fringe of the roster as a very low compensation third stringer who as noted had a tough time staying healthy.

 Easy, tiger. I wasn’t the one that accused you of being a homer. 

 Yard per carry averages don’t ever tell the full story when you’re talking about a terrible team with a mediocre offensive line. 

 If I recall correctly, he faced an awful lot of eight man fronts because nobody respected your quarterback or receiving corps. 

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1 minute ago, ChuckLiddell said:

I dont believe this is true and even if it is...Adam Gase.  He was clearly mistaken.

 I’m not saying Gace was right or wrong, I’m just saying he thought Williams was the mat. 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy

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22 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

What is unreasonable is assuming that the chiefs think that McCoy is better than Williams. It's also unreasonable to think that McCoy will play better than Williams. In fact, McCoy played worse last year than Williams did the year before he joined the chiefs, and he's been trending downward for 3 years.  

I disagree with your statement that it is unreasonable to assume that the Chiefs and Andy Reid, who drafted McCoy and has a good relationship with him might think that McCoy is better than Damien WIlliams. Just looking at the two players careers there is no reasonable argument that would say WIlliams is a better RB than McCoy. To think that would be unreasonable.

As far as McCoy being in decline the last 3 season there is some truth to that in terms of his ypc however there are ancillary effects that could be the cause of that as well. The Bills recently lost some quality offensive linemen that they are trying to replace. They also started a rookie QB last season who was not much of a threat throwing the ball.

It is concerning as McCoys age during this decline was when he turned 29 and 30 years old. That is right in line with the historical performance for RB and when they collectively decline because of age on average. Maybe McCoy has slipped because of age, wear and tear and isn't the same player he was in 2016 and before that anymore. 

The Chiefs have a much more productive offense than the Bills do. Even if McCoy has lost some of his ability because of age, he should be more productive because of the improved situation. That has applied to Damien Williams as well. So what you see as Williams becoming a better player may be entirely due to the supporting situation around him. 

How do you compare these players coming from such different circumstances and supporting casts?

In Bufalo you have a QB who is more of a running threat than a threat to throw the ball. This brings the defense up closer and crowding the box.

In Kansas City they have a QB throwing it downfield very effecively and defenses who have to respect that. Stopping the run becomes a afterthought.

Quote

It's also unreasonable to think that a team signing someone who got cut intends to start them.  How often does that happen, that a 31 year old veteran gets cut and then signs somewhere on August 31st and starts for his new team? 

In a vacuum I would agree with you. However in this specific case you have Andy Reid who drafted McCoy so I wouldn't say it is the same.

Quote

When I see a huge overreaction, I think it's a buying opportunity. Sometimes that overreaction ends up being correct and I'm wrong, but in the long run I think I'll be right more often then I'm wrong on things like this. 

If you see this as an opportunity to buy Williams. Well I disagree. 

The time to buy McCoy has been all offseason, and the circumstances for McCoy could not possibly be better than they are right now.

Edited by Biabreakable

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8 minutes ago, hamsterdam said:

Tbh this explains your super bias against Williams. Not blaming you really, as I’d probably feel similar after seeing a guy underperform for years on my team then gets major hype on another.  

I can assure you I am not biased against Williams because I am a Fins fan.  I am biased against Williams because I think he is a replaceable talent, better served to pay the role he has played for most of his un-illustrious career - as a backup.  Maybe he is a better backup than I thought, or maybe his situation made it appear that way in a very very small sample size.  People on here getting all hot and bothered that others think that McCoy or Darwin may be a better player make him seem like he is something that he is not - at least not to me.

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3 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

 Easy, tiger. I wasn’t the one that accused you of being a homer. 

 Yard per carry averages don’t ever tell the full story when you’re talking about a terrible team with a mediocre offensive line. 

 If I recall correctly, he faced an awful lot of eight man fronts because nobody respected your quarterback or receiving corps. 

Drake never averaged under 4.5 YPC on that same team.  35 year old Frank Gore averaged 4.6. Not sure they faced anything any different than Williams.  They are just better football players.

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Just now, ChuckLiddell said:

I can assure you I am not biased against Williams because I am a Fins fan.  I am biased against Williams because I think he is a replaceable talent, better served to pay the role he has played for most of his un-illustrious career - as a backup.  Maybe he is a better backup than I thought, or maybe his situation made it appear that way in a very very small sample size.  People on here getting all hot and bothered that others think that McCoy or Darwin may be a better player make him seem like he is something that he is not - at least not to me.

I wasn’t trying throw shade, just cleared up to me why you were going hard itt. By all means, I don’t think seeing a guy play the majority of his career is a negative. 

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Dude has 180 carries in his career.  Over 5 years.  We're all speculating...

To me, Reid has way more faith in his system than in a player.  Williams is part of that system... but just a part.  Unless there is an injury, I don't see any of these guys (McCoy, Williams, Thompson) winning your league for you.

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4 minutes ago, ChuckLiddell said:

Drake never averaged under 4.5 YPC on that same team.  35 year old Frank Gore averaged 4.6. Not sure they faced anything any different than Williams.  They are just better football players.

Injuries & sample size matter. In Williams case he had a significantly smaller sample size.

then, healthy & playing  for a better team, he had a much better yards per carry average. 

 If you want to compare apples to apples, go to the two or three games immediately after Drake took over and see how he did on a per carry basis. That was the same team with the same line in the same timeframe. That would seem to be relevant. 

Look, I am not a Williams defender at all. I’m just saying he may have been a better back then you have given him credit for.  Andy reid traded for him for a reason. 

He earned a starting job in Miami. That actually did happen. So at least in the eyes of Adam Gace,  Williams had enough talent to be the starting running back. 

I own Williams in exactly 0 formats this year. I thought he was overrated  for his ADP, but I could see the risk/reward factor of drafting the starting running back for the high powered chiefs, especially since he had little competition behind him. 

I’m relieved that he did not fall to me in any draft because at some point I probably would’ve pulled the trigger on him and got burned like everyone else. 

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2 minutes ago, pinequick said:

Dude has 180 carries in his career.  Over 5 years.  We're all speculating...

To me, Reid has way more faith in his system than in a player.  Williams is part of that system... but just a part.  Unless there is an injury, I don't see any of these guys (McCoy, Williams, Thompson) winning your league for you.

I agree with that. I was typing my last post while you posted this & eluded to that - Reid traded for Williams for a reason - he saw him as a talent who could run in his system. 

IMO it’s likely that at some point this year, each of these 3 backs will have some value. Injuries & effectiveness in that system will be the deciding factor. 

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1 minute ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Injuries & sample size matter. In Williams case he had a significantly smaller sample size.

then, healthy & playing  for a better team, he had a much better yards per carry average. 

 If you want to compare apples to apples, go to the two or three games immediately after Drake took over and see how he did on a per carry basis. That was the same team with the same line in the same timeframe. That would seem to be relevant. 

Look, I am not a Williams defender at all. I’m just saying he may have been a better back then you have given him credit for.  Andy reid traded for him for a reason. 

He earned a starting job in Miami. That actually did happen. So at least in the eyes of Adam Gace,  Williams had enough talent to be the starting running back. 

I own Williams in exactly 0 formats this year. I thought he was overrated  for his ADP, but I could see the risk/reward factor of drafting the starting running back for the high powered chiefs, especially since he had little competition behind him. 

I’m relieved that he did not fall to me in any draft because at some point I probably would’ve pulled the trigger on him and got burned like everyone else. 

Well his entire 4 seasons in Miami he averaged under 4 YPC so thats 4/5 of his career.  

Did Reid trade for him?  I thought he was a very low risk, very low cost free agent add.  I could be mistaken.  I think your article said they signed him for $1.5M.  Not exactly a ringing endorsement of Reid's opinion of him, or any other GM in the NFL's opinion of him.

You keep saying he earned a starting job.  I guess its in the eyes of the beholder.  I can see how it can be argued, but to me its a disingenuous use of the term "earned".  We can agree to disagree on that.

I actually think for the most part we agree on this guy. 

 

 

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9 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

I disagree with your statement that it is unreasonable to assume that the Chiefs and Andy Reid, who drafted McCoy and has a good relationship with him might think that McCoy is better than Damien WIlliams.

You added the word "might" to what i said

31 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

What is unreasonable is assuming that the chiefs think that McCoy is better than Williams

I agree that they "might" think that McCoy is better.  They "might" not know, but think it's worth 3-4 million to find out. They "might" think he's as good, or even slightly worse, but prefer having someone with his experience as a starter.  They "might" think both should get about 10 carries a week.  Those would all be really good outcomes for McCoy for fantasy.  

I also happen to disagree that all of those - or any of those - are more likely than Williams remaining the starter.  But that's not the point I was making.  

It is unreasonable to assume that the chiefs think McCoy is better than Williams. It is perfectly reasonable to believe they "might" think that. It's unreasonable to assume that they definitely do. And many people seem to be making that unreasonable assumption, which presents a buying opportunity.  

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2 hours ago, Don Hutson said:

My guess is that McCoy and Williams will alternate series until one of them shows that they are the superior option.  Neither needs to be pulled for passing downs.  They might bring Darwin in for short yardage.

 

Darwin is under 200 pounds - although I know he’s still a thumper despite being small, he seems like the last guy they’d bring in for short yardage.

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I agree that none of us know what Andy Reid thinks about the relative ability and talent of LeSean McCoy compared to Damien Williams right now.

MCoys play style relying on quickness and footwork to make defenders miss is something that is at risk if his quickness has significantly declined from 2016.

I do not have a solid opinion about that. You can look at the numbers, and the historical numbers and age and I think it is reasonable to see that decline.

However I think that McCoy at his peak so much better than WIlliams, that even if McCoy has lost a step, I still think he is more talented than Williams is. At least he was. Perhaps McCoy is only a shadow of his former self now. That is also a possibility.

I think the familiarity of Andy Reid with McCoy means a couple of important things. Reid likely knows how to maximize the ability that McCoy has left. He also has likely maintained a relationship with McCoy and has been following his progress (or lack of progress recently) more closely than other players. We don't know what Reids opinion about that is. 

If you think McCoy is washed up (I don't) then yes this is a terrific opportunity to buy Williams.

Similarly if you have McCoy but believe he is washed up this is a great opportunity to try to sell him, as I do think top 12 RB upside is possible for either of these players. You could maybe get something very good for McCoy right now.

If the two players end up splitting evenly it is going to suck for both players. Reid does not have a history of doing this however. It might not be settled for a month or so, but at some point I do think one of the two is going to be getting the majority of the opportunities. In my view it is more likely that is McCoy than it is Williams despite Williams inside track and currently having the starting position.

It is a bad time to buy McCoy right now but if you can pick him up off waivers or something its a no brainer.

I do think McCoy scores more fantasy points than Williams in 2019.

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6 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Darwin is under 200 pounds - although I know he’s still a thumper despite being small, he seems like the last guy they’d bring in for short yardage.

Other than the fact that McCoy is 31 & DWill has had shoulder injuries of course. 

Maybe youth & health are better factors for determining who crashes into the wall, assuming its a handoff up the gut.

does KC employ a decent FB? :shrug:

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Quote

However I think that McCoy at his peak so much better than WIlliams, that even if McCoy has lost a step, I still think he is more talented than Williams is. At least he was. Perhaps McCoy is only a shadow of his former self now. That is also a possibility.

Not to hijack, but this is a narrative i see a lot with aging RBs & I think it’s a fallacy. “If you can get 80% of [aging RB] he’s still better than [X-Player/% of the league league]”

Extreme outliers like Frank Gore aside, history simply doesn’t bear this out. Because you’re unlikely to get “80% of McCoy in his prime” - RBs tend to age in dog years. After 30, their numbers sometimes fall off a cliff. 

And even if it is a gradual decline, those hits add up. Players simply don’t bounce back from hard tackles like they did in their prime. A soft tissue injury can occur to any player at any time, but the odds go up for an older player with a lot of mileage. A key ability is availability & all that, right? KC is a high temp offense. They’ll have a lot of snaps on offense. How much of a workload can McCoy realistically handle at 31? Guess we’ll find out, but it adds risk. 

Finally, “80%” of McCoy makes it sound like it’s an even decline of skills. 

What if he’s got great vision, good hands & can read a defense, but lost 40% of his speed & 30% of his power compared to his prime. That might average out to 80%, but you’re not getting exactly the return on usable skills since all of these abilities factor into a RBs effectiveness.

I find it hard to believe that 80% of McCoy’s prime is better than DWill at 100%.

don't mean to pick nits - this one probably belongs in the “cliches you’re tired of” topic. ;) 

 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy

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3 hours ago, tjnc09 said:

If I'm drafting today, I would definitely reach for McCoy - his history w/ Reid > age

:goodposting: 

Agree 100%. And people who want to point to last season in BUF need to consider how much playing for Reid and with Mahomes, Hill, Kelce, et al. will create a better situation for McCoy to excel.

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3 hours ago, bostonfred said:

History has not been kind to backs over 30 who change teams

That is fair, but how many RBs over 30 changed teams and:

  1. Went back to a previous head coach
  2. Where that head coach is known to run a fantasy-friendly offense for his lead RB
  3. Went to arguably the best passing offense in the league

I feel like this situation is pretty different from most, if not all, of the previous over 30 RB examples.

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If any offense can support an average RB in the league its this offense.

That being said I think with Reids history with Shady he has a pretty solid chance to lead this team with touches and be a solid weekly RB2.

Williams doesn't overly impress me with game breaking skill but he doesn't need to in this type of offense.  The lanes are bigger and the field is more spread out.

At the end of the day the McCoy pickup is not good for Williams or any other KC RB's for that matter.  

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McCoy just went in the 5th rd. of a FFPC main event online draft a few hours ago.   Williams went in the 4th.

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1 hour ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I agree with that. I was typing my last post while you posted this & eluded to that - Reid traded for Williams for a reason - he saw him as a talent who could run in his system. 

IMO it’s likely that at some point this year, each of these 3 backs will have some value. Injuries & effectiveness in that system will be the deciding factor. 

As it often is in football, I think it will be this. 

I think D. Williams gets more run early (as McCoy comes back up to speed in this system), and then (Week 3 or 4?) they split.  Honestly--in REAL football, a pretty even timeshare makes sense.  Why would you want to run either of them into the ground? 

But if injuries strike, then you may have a league winner on your hands... if you've got the right guy.  That's what makes this backfield so frustrating, IMO.  As of right now, you probably can't get all three of these guys, and to get two of them you're probably overpaying for banking on an injury to make one of them truly pay off.

Seems weird to be steering clear of the the RB situation in the best offense in football (that loves to funnel points through their RBs), but at current prices I probably would.  YMMV.

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