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RB Damien Williams, ATL (4 Viewers)

irishidiot said:
McCoy just went in the 5th rd. of a FFPC main event online draft a few hours ago.   Williams went in the 4th.
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This sounds about right for big money. Who the hell knows which of these two will be the KC primary eater, but whomever it is will eat plenty.

####-pull odds are 50 DWill, 40 McC and 10 MGD (Machine Gun Darwin)

 
Seems weird to be steering clear of the the RB situation in the best offense in football (that loves to funnel points through their RBs), but at current prices I probably would.  YMMV.
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Not weird at all. In the McCoy topic I said I’d avoid the whole mess if I were drafting now. 

I have better options with my 4th round pick than to take a 31 year old McCoy who I then have to handcuff to a 6th round DWill & maybe back up late with a Thompson. 

Gimme Carson or Montgomery or Mack & move on to the next round. Let KC backfield be someone else’s headache this year. 

I wouldn’t hesitate to grab Mahomes or Hill at the right price though. 

 
LawFitz said:
This sounds about right for big money. Who the hell knows which of these two will be the KC primary eater, but whomever it is will eat plenty.

####-pull odds are 50 DWill, 40 McC and 10 MGD (Machine Gun Darwin)
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Unless one actually becomes a feature back, those are both terrible picks, IMO. 

I get the risk/reward thing with high stakes, but spend later picks on that, not top 6 round picks. 

Odds are likely just as good that everyone stays healthy & this is a year-long RBBC from Hell, making literally every other player taken in the 5th & 6th a better value. 

“League-winning upside”™️ Be damned. 

 
bostonfred said:
You added the word "might" to what i said

I agree that they "might" think that McCoy is better.  They "might" not know, but think it's worth 3-4 million to find out. They "might" think he's as good, or even slightly worse, but prefer having someone with his experience as a starter.  They "might" think both should get about 10 carries a week.  Those would all be really good outcomes for McCoy for fantasy.  

I also happen to disagree that all of those - or any of those - are more likely than Williams remaining the starter.  But that's not the point I was making.  

It is unreasonable to assume that the chiefs think McCoy is better than Williams. It is perfectly reasonable to believe they "might" think that. It's unreasonable to assume that they definitely do. And many people seem to be making that unreasonable assumption, which presents a buying opportunity.  
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I'm not going to try and get in the middle of this. It's an interesting line of thinking for sure. But I am drafting tomorrow so I have to make assumptions. Whether reasonable or not I have to plant flags based on the murky at best info we have. I am *guessing*, which I like better than *assuming*, that yes Reid likes McCoy better and he will be the 1a. Williams will be 1b. And therefore relevant. But probably still too expensive for me. I would love to get a sense of Williams new ADP going into tomorrow morning.

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Not weird at all. In the McCoy topic I said I’d avoid the whole mess if I were drafting now. 

I have better options with my 4th round pick than to take a 31 year old McCoy who I then have to handcuff to a 6th round DWill & maybe back up late with a Thompson. 

Gimme Carson or Montgomery or Mack & move on to the next round. Let KC backfield be someone else’s headache this year. 

I wouldn’t hesitate to grab Mahomes or Hill at the right price though. 
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same

 
So I searched every RB for last 20 years who was:

a. an Undrafted FA

b.In his first five seasons

c. had less than 185 carries (Williams has 183)

The result is not very impressive.  I think I would sell high on Williams now.

http://pfref.com/tiny/eD8YO

 
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Williams will still have plenty of fantasy value this year in KC. It’s not like he popped a knee in week one.

 
Boy I don't know. Williams hasn't had a great career up until now. Very small sample size.

The fact Reid jumped all over Shady and guaranteed his money I think speaks a lot.  Buffalo is not KC. Have to think Reid will give him a chance. I don't think there is any doubt he trusts Shady more. 

 
I was looking for things that Andy Reid has said recently.

Well he was talking about using a RBBC with the two Williams, Hyde and Thompson before they signed McCoy and traded Hyde away.

I have followed Andy Reid pretty closely because he tends to be great for fantasy football and also as a fan, as I think he is a good offensive coach, his roots being with the Green Bay Packers and the Walrus back in the day.

He does not use a RBBC unless the players he has are not good enough to win the starting role. So him saying that was the plan prior to them signing McCoy, who was Reids primary RB every season he was with him expecting any of the other guys to be that guy.

Maybe McCoy isn't what he was but the past does tell us something about how this might turn out.

 
And I looked at all the RBs back to 1968 who had career rushing yards of at least 10K and receptions of at least 400 by age 31. The list is pretty elite and of course includes Shady.  If you look at their year 31 production most of them were productive with the exception of Edge (injury??) & Thurmon Thomas whose last good year was age 30. There are 9 of them who meet this criteria and McCoy is the 10th.  So 7 of the 9 were productive in year 31, which tells me you should probably gamble on Shady.  The link above shows that the odds for Williams are long.

My advice: go with Shady.

http://pfref.com/tiny/JJFPM

 
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az_prof said:
And I looked at all the RBs back to 1968 who had career rushing yards of at least 10K and receptions of at least 400 by age 31. The list is pretty elite and of course includes Shady.  If you look at their year 31 production most of them were productive with the exception of Edge (injury??) & Thurmon Thomas whose last good year was age 30. There are 9 of them who meet this criteria and McCoy is the 10th.  So 7 of the 9 were productive in year 31, which tells me you should probably gamble on Shady.  The link above shows that the odds for Williams are long.

My advice: go with Shady.

http://pfref.com/tiny/JJFPM
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not agreeing or disagreeing, but good post & informative.

 
az_prof said:
And I looked at all the RBs back to 1968 who had career rushing yards of at least 10K and receptions of at least 400 by age 31. The list is pretty elite and of course includes Shady.  If you look at their year 31 production most of them were productive with the exception of Edge (injury??) & Thurmon Thomas whose last good year was age 30. There are 9 of them who meet this criteria and McCoy is the 10th.  So 7 of the 9 were productive in year 31, which tells me you should probably gamble on Shady.  The link above shows that the odds for Williams are long.

My advice: go with Shady.

http://pfref.com/tiny/JJFPM
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Blount’s age 30 & 31 seasons look pretty different.

also Corey Dillon. 

I realize they don’t meet 100% of the criteria laid out above, but in general (age, past usage, etc) it seems close enough to include them in the discussion. 

Dillon’s production dropped by half 30 to 31

Blount also fell off a cliff from 30 to 31. 

Hard to say what Shady will do from 31 to 32. Past performance isn’t the best predictor of future events, as they say. 

But what I know for a fact is that when it hits RBs, it hits ‘em hard & fast. 

Maybe it’s nothing. Maybe it’s something - but McCoy’s situation is clouded by the deep backfield.

DWill didnt do anything to lose his job on that slick 62 yard ReTD against the Niners week 3, so I have to believe that’s a committee.

the double edged sword there for McCoy & DWill owners is that splitting carries will likely help McCoy be more effective but will limit his upside. And if he stays healthy, DWill’s upside is capped too. 

I have neither - good luck to those who do. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Blount’s age 30 & 31 seasons look pretty different.

also Corey Dillon. 

I realize they don’t meet 100% of the criteria laid out above, but in general (age, past usage, etc) it seems close enough to include them in the discussion. 

Dillon’s production dropped by half 30 to 31

Blount also fell off a cliff from 30 to 31. 

Hard to say what Shady will do from 31 to 32. Past performance isn’t the best predictor of future events, as they say. 

But what I know for a fact is that when it hits RBs, it hits ‘em hard & fast. 

Maybe it’s nothing. Maybe it’s something - but McCoy’s situation is clouded by the deep backfield.

DWill didnt do anything to lose his job on that slick 62 yard ReTD against the Niners week 3, so I have to believe that’s a committee.

the double edged sword there for McCoy & DWill owners is that splitting carries will likely help McCoy be more effective but will limit his upside. And if he stays healthy, DWill’s upside is capped too. 

I have neither - good luck to those who do. 
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I don't have either also--and I do agree--I expect some degree of time share to also include Thompson. That being said, the one I would prefer is Shady. Also, that offense is so productive that even in a time share a couple of these guys could have value.

 
surprised this is such a thing. it isn't like the Cheifs traded for McCoy, the reality was the Bills cut him from the team. there is always the money element of it, but that is the most telling to me. I think Andy Reid did a solid for a former player  and put him on the team. he might get some playing time, but i have a hard time being inserted immediately

 
az_prof said:
I don't have either also--and I do agree--I expect some degree of time share to also include Thompson. That being said, the one I would prefer is Shady. Also, that offense is so productive that even in a time share a couple of these guys could have value.
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No doubt. If Kamara & Ingram (now Murray) can both have FF value I have no doubt there’ll be plenty of carries to go around. 

I feel like if you drafted any of the 3, you hold until it shakes out.

Another clever DThomas strategy might be to see what the McCoy or DWill owner might give you for him. Having 2/3 of that backfield would give you one more chance at catching a break if things go south for one of them.  

 
modogg said:
surprised this is such a thing. it isn't like the Cheifs traded for McCoy, the reality was the Bills cut him from the team. there is always the money element of it, but that is the most telling to me. I think Andy Reid did a solid for a former player  and put him on the team. he might get some playing time, but i have a hard time being inserted immediately
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At $4M per year, $3M guaranteed?  I think he'll be in there...

 
LawFitz said:
ROFL
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well, i didn't think it was that crazy. with Bills straight out cutting Shady i guess he had multiple options. really don't know what his market was, but i'm sure Shady wasn't looking to go into a whole new environment

 
modogg said:
well, i didn't think it was that crazy. with Bills straight out cutting Shady i guess he had multiple options. really don't know what his market was, but i'm sure Shady wasn't looking to go into a whole new environment
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It is Buffalo. Ever been there in winter? Cold. Very, very cold. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Plus he’s less likely to hurt his shoulder (DWill) or uh, break a hip like old man McCoy. :lol:  
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Williams has 10 TDs in half a season and that shoulder injury was years ago. I have serious doubts it will be Thompson getting goal-line carries but we’ll see I guess.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
Who was getting the goal-line TDs last season of not Williams?
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I know it was Williams, I’m just saying - all 10 of those weren’t From the 1. 

This year it’ll be a crap shoot. 

But since it’s Andy Reid I guarantee it’ll be the player that helps you least. If you have Shady, he’ll run it 40 yards to the 1, then Thompson will punch it in.  If you have DWill it’ll be Shady. If you have Thompson, he’ll come into the lineup & they’ll throw it to Kelce or Hill on 1st & goal at the 1.

gonna be a lot of people number-checking the chiefs at the GL this year to see if their pony is in the race, that’s for sure. :lol:  

 
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Hot Sauce Guy said:
I know it was Williams, I’m just saying - all 10 of those weren’t From the 1. 

This year it’ll be a crap shoot. 

But since it’s Andy Reid I guarantee it’ll be the player that helps you least. If you have Shady, he’ll run it 40 yards to the 1, then Thompson will punch it in.  If you have DWill it’ll be Shady. If you have Thompson, he’ll come into the lineup & they’ll throw it to Kelce or Hill on 1st & goal at the 1.

gonna be a lot of people number-checking the chiefs at the GL this year to see if their pony is in the race, that’s for sure. :lol:  
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This is 100% correct, and  kicking myself in the ### for getting myself involved in it

Been through it before and I know better 

😠

 
Ugh. I drafted this dude mid-4th in a 12 team redraft on Friday night and thought I got a bit of a bargain, not looking so much like that now. Probably very few coaches know McCoy better than Reid and what he brings to a team. Smelling like a 50/50 split probably which stinks for both really, guess we'll have to wait and see. Why couldn't the stupid Texans have signed McCoy, surely their need was greater  😡

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
I see it as a positive. You now have a RB2 & weekly Flex player. 

Thats not a bad value. Especially in the Chiefs offense. 
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Yeah, there's a silver lining in that cloud for sure.  I would have rather seen if Brieda could approach RB2 eventually (he'll outplay Coleman) and have Williams as an RB1, but you can't always get...what you want.

 
Saw him get traded straight up for Derrick Henry this morning in a decent money PPR redraft league

I own Shady in a few leagues so I’m a bit tempted to monopolize the backfield and throw out some lowball offers to deflated owners lol, but I don’t think it’ll be a fun experience deciding who to start weekly. 

 
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I still think, from what I saw last year, that Williams is a bit more than JAG. Like almost every running back is JAG by definition, but he's above-average, IMHO.

 
I understand why people are being so speculative about McCoy. But regardless of why he was cut in Buffalo another reality is that Reid has gone this entire off-season with zero sense of urgency about replacing Damien Williams as the starting RB. A sixth round pick and Hyde, who apparently was behind that 6th round pick for several weeks before all this broke. They have been perfectly confident in Williams all off-season.

Shady is a solid veteran pick up who will produce but I don't think I have ever seen a good/great NFL coach actively plan to solve a negative RB talent situation on the final roster cutdowns five days before the season starts.

 
Chaka said:
I understand why people are being so speculative about McCoy. But regardless of why he was cut in Buffalo another reality is that Reid has gone this entire off-season with zero sense of urgency about replacing Damien Williams as the starting RB. A sixth round pick and Hyde, who apparently was behind that 6th round pick for several weeks before all this broke. They have been perfectly confident in Williams all off-season.

Shady is a solid veteran pick up who will produce but I don't think I have ever seen a good/great NFL coach actively plan to solve a negative RB talent situation on the final roster cutdowns five days before the season starts.
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Your points are very much taken. I personally couldn't take a roster risk given its current composition. I know I'm personalizing it, but that's the only context I have. 

 
rockaction said:
Your points are very much taken. I personally couldn't take a roster risk given its current composition. I know I'm personalizing it, but that's the only context I have. 
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And I'm not knocking McCoy either. The Hyde trade broke during the second half of my draft on Saturday and McCoy had not signed until after it ended.

But, even today I would not change my pick of Williams at 3.11, I was never expecting more than about 15 or so touches/game from him (very high efficiency touches) and I still am. 

What I would change is grabbing McCoy in the 7th/8th instead of Darwin Thompson in the 12th.

 
Chaka said:
And I'm not knocking McCoy either. The Hyde trade broke during the second half of my draft on Saturday and McCoy had not signed until after it ended.

But, even today I would not change my pick of Williams at 3.11, I was never expecting more than about 15 or so touches/game from him (very high efficiency touches) and I still am. 

What I would change is grabbing McCoy in the 7th/8th instead of Darwin Thompson in the 12th.
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That's actually almost exactly where I've gotten each. I got Williams at 3.11/4.01 and McCoy at 7.10

 
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rockaction said:
I still think, from what I saw last year, that Williams is a bit more than JAG. Like almost every running back is JAG by definition, but he's above-average, IMHO.
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In Miami, I remember him being their best pass blocking RB and a good receiving back with straight-line speed but not much lateral speed or wiggle. He caught between 20  and 23 passes 5 years in a row, so the coaches trusted him in pass blocking, but they were always looking for a more dynamic RB. He caught 23 of 24 passes last year. But his 5.1 ypc in KC was his first year above 3.9: https://www.rotoworld.com/football/nfl/player/8776/damien-williams

 
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