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Damien Wiliams - RB - Oklahoma

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We should also keep in mind that one small iteration of data draw from a Jax game is a tough way to sled when it comes to evaluating an offensive team.

That's all I got.

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I'll add this.....while Shady looked really really good on his runs....like really good....Mahomes just missed Dwilly on what would have been like a 60 yard TD pass.....(think Kareem Hunt type of route against NE last year)....this close to be a huge fantasy day for Dwilly....I think you have to expect a full blown committee with Thompson even getting some touches as we move forward....IMO its only going to get more difficult with lineup decisions moving forward....I can see them both kind of being possible flex plays, but you will have to understand you could come up completely empty just as easily as you could come up with a monster or even decent game....it really may come down to who just happens to be in the game when they enter the red zone and gets the final touch....Dwilly could work them down the field and then come out for a blow and McCoy gets in....or vice versa.....and those are just when Mahomes doesn't get his...

there is an opportunity for each of them to get chunk yardage plays throughout the game.....KC just seems to have chunk yard play after chunk yard play....

Edited by Stinkin Ref
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46 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

I'm not supporting an argument about Williams.  I'm clarifying something that wasn't clear in the box score.

Carlos hyde averaged under 6 yarda a catch.  All he really does is catch dump offs. Yesterday, Williams caught 6 for 39 and payne said yikes. Someone who didn't watch the game might say wow Williams sucks at catching the ball like hyde.  

But that's not what was happening.  Williams looked good catching the ball yesterday and not as good running it. He had 5 catches at 8 per catch on the day. His sixth "catch" was a jet sweep on the goal line that hurt his average, so if you're a box score scout looking for information about what actually happened, that may be useful information.  

If you want me to make an "argument" about what that means for his future production, I'd say Williams got slightly more rushing and receiving attempts than he did last year and was slightly less productive than he was on the same number of touches last year, but that there are some extenuating circumstances and some normal variance.  I've never thought Williams was an elite runner, but i think his speed, receiving ability and goal line ability make him a good fit for what Reid wants to do and what I'm looking for from a fantasy rb. If he continues to get the 10 to 12 carries and 4 to 5 catches a game I'd projected then i don't care who gets the rest.  But that's not an objective stance - that's my opinion on him as a player.  The objective fact i was clarifying is that he had 5 catches for 40 yards plus a jet sweep for minus one on the goal line, and i shared it so you can form your own opinion.  

Makes more sense. I told you it was prob bc I was slow. Thanks for clarification. I was reading as a pro-Williams argument.

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35 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

I'm not supporting an argument about Williams.  I'm clarifying something that wasn't clear in the box score.

Carlos hyde averaged under 6 yarda a catch.  All he really does is catch dump offs. Yesterday, Williams caught 6 for 39 and payne said yikes. Someone who didn't watch the game might say wow Williams sucks at catching the ball like hyde.  

But that's not what was happening.  Williams looked good catching the ball yesterday and not as good running it. He had 5 catches at 8 per catch on the day. His sixth "catch" was a jet sweep on the goal line that hurt his average, so if you're a box score scout looking for information about what actually happened, that may be useful information.  

If you want me to make an "argument" about what that means for his future production, I'd say Williams got slightly more rushing and receiving attempts than he did last year and was slightly less productive than he was on the same number of touches last year, but that there are some extenuating circumstances and some normal variance.  I've never thought Williams was an elite runner, but i think his speed, receiving ability and goal line ability make him a good fit for what Reid wants to do and what I'm looking for from a fantasy rb. If he continues to get the 10 to 12 carries and 4 to 5 catches a game I'd projected then i don't care who gets the rest.  But that's not an objective stance - that's my opinion on him as a player.  The objective fact i was clarifying is that he had 5 catches for 40 yards plus a jet sweep for minus one on the goal line, and i shared it so you can form your own opinion.  

You are an intelligent, diligent and valuable poster. But you're coming across as wearing heavy Williams-colored glasses, starting the last couple weeks, and much more so after yesterday's game. You're attacking other posters for sharing their opinions and/or box-scoring, but you're essentially doing the same, albeit with more detail and context. The problem with your stance however, is the detail and context you're using to support your opinion seems to me at least, to be cherry-picked from a Williams view.

McCoy looked very spry and considerably better than Williams yesterday. I'm not pointing to box scores to support that opinion, just simply my own two eyes watching that game. But it's one week. So not crowning him, just saying that Williams owners are right to be concerned after what we saw. Let's see if this dynamic continues and more importantly, how Andy Reid reacts if it does. This is a fluid, competitive situation, and McCoy is up 1-0 after round 1.

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McCoy is taking this job outright.  He is the way better back and proved it yesterday.  A week with the team and goes out and balls.  70-30 split from here on out.  I'd like to get rid of my Williams shares if I could, but they are basically worthless right now.

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Both are decent flex starts (and I'd lean Williams in PPR) until someone gets hurt... and someone always gets hurt.

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1 hour ago, zoonation said:

McCoy is taking this job outright.  He is the way better back and proved it yesterday.  A week with the team and goes out and balls.  70-30 split from here on out.  I'd like to get rid of my Williams shares if I could, but they are basically worthless right now.

This is laughable. McCoy looked fine out there but by no means did he prove himself the better back. He got chunk yardage on a few carries that were blocked extremely well. DWilliams never got a big hole to run through. It just happens sometimes. That's why you find posts about backups taking the starting job because they turned 5 carries into 80 yards and the starter had 15 for 40 or something. 

The box score can only tell you so much. By the eye test, McCoy looks like the faster runner but Williams looks like the steady hand who does everything that's asked of him. 

Williams was used as a bell cow in today's terminology. He played all three downs, got the goal line work, caught a handful of passes, and was spelled by a change-of-pace back who had fresh legs and got chunk yardage on some gaping holes. 

I was extremely encouraged by the usage splits and saw nothing to indicate a change going forward. 

I'm holding every Williams share I have right now. 

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People who think Williams looked as good as McCoy are willfully blind imo.  

I’m shopping.  The delta in carries and snaps is only going to increase going forward.  Shady was there for less than a week before the game and split.  

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1 hour ago, zoonation said:

McCoy is taking this job outright.  He is the way better back and proved it yesterday.  A week with the team and goes out and balls.  70-30 split from here on out.  I'd like to get rid of my Williams shares if I could, but they are basically worthless right now.

There's no way it gets better than 50-50 for McCoy. There's just no way his body would hold up.

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23 minutes ago, ShamrockPride said:

There's no way it gets better than 50-50 for McCoy. There's just no way his body would hold up.

As a McCoy owner, I would be fine with that.  McCoy would hold more value if he could catch the ball out of the backfield too.  

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5 hours ago, LawFitz said:

You are an intelligent, diligent and valuable poster. But you're coming across as wearing heavy Williams-colored glasses, starting the last couple weeks, and much more so after yesterday's game. You're attacking other posters for sharing their opinions and/or box-scoring, but you're essentially doing the same, albeit with more detail and context. The problem with your stance however, is the detail and context you're using to support your opinion seems to me at least, to be cherry-picked from a Williams view.

Yes, and they should be. There's no value to anyone in reporting the stat line, or reporting that McCoy had a better than expected rushing performance. Everyone can see that.  

What people might not have seen or considered were the circumstances behind their play.  Like last night Vance McDonald had 2 catches for 40 yarda. I don't need you to tell me that.  What os interesting is that he had zero targets until the final drive and was targeted 3 times on longer throws at the end of the game.  That's not a pro McDonald or anti McDonald stance. That's just reporting valuable context.  Also interesting - George Kittle had two longer touchdowns called back by penalties away from the play on different drives. So did Brate. And Evan Engram- who I love this year - had a moister game, but Sterling Shepherd may have gotten a concussion and Tate is suspended.  I go to those threads hoping to read that stuff. 

Williams caught 5 balls for 40 then "caught" a jet sweep for minus one at the goal line. Last year he caught 5 passes a game in his 6 games.  This year he caught 5 plus that jet sweep.  He averages 8 a catch. 

All of that is relevant and it's all facts. 

Personally, I think it's pretty likely he'll get 5 for 40 next week, because he performed exactly as well as he had in the past. When someone says "Williams caught 6 balls for 39 yards... Yikes" it implies that he had a bad receiving game catching 6 yard dump offs. He didn't.  We've got a ton of history to look at from Miami, kc last year, the preseason when he ripped off a huge catch for a touchdown and then this game. He's consistently averaged over 8 per catch. He did again this game.

Here's some more observations. I'll start with some pro McCoy ones.

McCoy averaged over 5 yards per carry in limited action the first 3 quarters and had a 12 yard catch.  

In the 4th quarter, McCoy had 6 carries to Williams' 7. 

Thompson only had one touch - a 3 yard catch - and Darrell Williams was NOT inactive - he just played on special teams. 

 Now some pro Williams facts

Williams averaged about 12 rushes, 5 catches, 100 yarda and 1.6 touchdowns in his 6 games last year.  He had 13 rushes, 6 catches,  and 65 yards this week. 

Through the first 3 quarters, Williams out touched McCoy 11 to 5. In the 4th quarter, Williams out touched McCoy 7 to 6. 

Through the first 3 quarters, Williams had out produced McCoy 49 yards and a touchdown to 33 yards. 

In the 4th quarter, leading by 17 or more points, McCoy outperformed Williams 60 yards to 16. 

Prior to the 4th quarter, Williams 3 biggest plays were 18, 9 and 8 yard receptions. McCoy's biggest plays were a 13 yard run, 12 yard catch and 4 yard run.  

Those are all facts.  Now here's my opinion 

I totally understand why people were excited about McCoy's performance - he got more touches than expected, he didn't look old, and he way out produced Williams on the ground. 

I don't think anything changed for Williams.  I still expect him to get 10 to 12 rush attempts and 4 to 5 receptions plus goal line work.  McCoy has earned a role, but McCoy averaged 12 carries and 2 to 3 catches a game last year.  I don't expect Reid to give him more than that. Hunt only averaged about 14.  It doesn't look like Darwin or Darrell are stealing carries. The chiefs had 387 carries last year - 16x12x2 =384. So from Williams perspective, very little has changed except his price, which has apparently gone down even after a quality fantasy start.  I remain a buyer.

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I’d be selling Williams all day long to you.  If Shady gets some goal line carries he’ll outproduce Williams in standard leagues. Williams value is on wheel routes to the house. He’s a receiver 

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33 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

Through the first 3 quarters, Williams out touched McCoy 11 to 5. In the 4th quarter, Williams out touched McCoy 7 to 6. 

Through the first 3 quarters, Williams had out produced McCoy 49 yards and a touchdown to 33 yards. 

In the 4th quarter, leading by 17 or more points, McCoy outperformed Williams 60 yards to 16. 

For those of you who think McCoy is now the workhorse

- if McCoy was out performing Williams by so much befor the 4th quarter, why did Williams get more than twice as many touches? 

- if McCoy was being held back because they weren't sure he was ready, why did they give him 6 fourth quarter carries in a blowout where they'd already lost their starting receiver and their quarterback had hurt his ankle? 

- if you believe McCoy is taking over as the feature back, how many carries do you think is reasonable to expect at age 31?  How many yarda? 

Here's a list of all the players with 180 plus carries at age 31 or older since 2000. 11 of them broke 1000 yards.

- Who else besides McCoy will get carries?  

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Not invested in this backfield at all. But if I were, I would try to sell everyone. I see this as likely to be a significant time share and being difficult to predict week to week who is the guy to start. If I had to have a guy, it would be McCoy but I am not going out trying to buy him either. 

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13 minutes ago, az_prof said:

Not invested in this backfield at all. But if I were, I would try to sell everyone. I see this as likely to be a significant time share and being difficult to predict week to week who is the guy to start. If I had to have a guy, it would be McCoy but I am not going out trying to buy him either. 

kooky talk.  40 points a game, I’m starting the left tackle if i could.

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5 hours ago, ATB said:

This is laughable. McCoy looked fine out there but by no means did he prove himself the better back. He got chunk yardage on a few carries that were blocked extremely well. DWilliams never got a big hole to run through. It just happens sometimes. That's why you find posts about backups taking the starting job because they turned 5 carries into 80 yards and the starter had 15 for 40 or something. 

The box score can only tell you so much. By the eye test, McCoy looks like the faster runner but Williams looks like the steady hand who does everything that's asked of him. 

Williams was used as a bell cow in today's terminology. He played all three downs, got the goal line work, caught a handful of passes, and was spelled by a change-of-pace back who had fresh legs and got chunk yardage on some gaping holes. 

I was extremely encouraged by the usage splits and saw nothing to indicate a change going forward. 

I'm holding every Williams share I have right now. 

It's not laughable at all. 

How do you know the holes weren't the same and the vision Shady possesses enabled those runs? The eye test clearly states McCoy looked better.

 

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5 hours ago, ShamrockPride said:

There's no way it gets better than 50-50 for McCoy. There's just no way his body would hold up.

How can you say that?? lol. You can't. It's simply your opinion.

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4 minutes ago, Payne said:

How can you say that?? lol. You can't. It's simply your opinion.

Serious question, what do you think is the ceiling for McCoy's carries this year? 

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4 hours ago, bostonfred said:

 

 

Yes, and they should be. There's no value to anyone in reporting the stat line, or reporting that McCoy had a better than expected rushing performance. Everyone can see that.  

What people might not have seen or considered were the circumstances behind their play.  Like last night Vance McDonald had 2 catches for 40 yarda. I don't need you to tell me that.  What os interesting is that he had zero targets until the final drive and was targeted 3 times on longer throws at the end of the game.  That's not a pro McDonald or anti McDonald stance. That's just reporting valuable context.  Also interesting - George Kittle had two longer touchdowns called back by penalties away from the play on different drives. So did Brate. And Evan Engram- who I love this year - had a moister game, but Sterling Shepherd may have gotten a concussion and Tate is suspended.  I go to those threads hoping to read that stuff. 

Williams caught 5 balls for 40 then "caught" a jet sweep for minus one at the goal line. Last year he caught 5 passes a game in his 6 games.  This year he caught 5 plus that jet sweep.  He averages 8 a catch. 

All of that is relevant and it's all facts. 

Personally, I think it's pretty likely he'll get 5 for 40 next week, because he performed exactly as well as he had in the past. When someone says "Williams caught 6 balls for 39 yards... Yikes" it implies that he had a bad receiving game catching 6 yard dump offs. He didn't.  We've got a ton of history to look at from Miami, kc last year, the preseason when he ripped off a huge catch for a touchdown and then this game. He's consistently averaged over 8 per catch. He did again this game.

Here's some more observations. I'll start with some pro McCoy ones.

McCoy averaged over 5 yards per carry in limited action the first 3 quarters and had a 12 yard catch.  

In the 4th quarter, McCoy had 6 carries to Williams' 7. 

Thompson only had one touch - a 3 yard catch - and Darrell Williams was NOT inactive - he just played on special teams. 

 Now some pro Williams facts

Williams averaged about 12 rushes, 5 catches, 100 yarda and 1.6 touchdowns in his 6 games last year.  He had 13 rushes, 6 catches,  and 65 yards this week. 

Through the first 3 quarters, Williams out touched McCoy 11 to 5. In the 4th quarter, Williams out touched McCoy 7 to 6. 

Through the first 3 quarters, Williams had out produced McCoy 49 yards and a touchdown to 33 yards. 

In the 4th quarter, leading by 17 or more points, McCoy outperformed Williams 60 yards to 16. 

Prior to the 4th quarter, Williams 3 biggest plays were 18, 9 and 8 yard receptions. McCoy's biggest plays were a 13 yard run, 12 yard catch and 4 yard run.  

Those are all facts.  Now here's my opinion 

I totally understand why people were excited about McCoy's performance - he got more touches than expected, he didn't look old, and he way out produced Williams on the ground. 

I don't think anything changed for Williams.  I still expect him to get 10 to 12 rush attempts and 4 to 5 receptions plus goal line work.  McCoy has earned a role, but McCoy averaged 12 carries and 2 to 3 catches a game last year.  I don't expect Reid to give him more than that. Hunt only averaged about 14.  It doesn't look like Darwin or Darrell are stealing carries. The chiefs had 387 carries last year - 16x12x2 =384. So from Williams perspective, very little has changed except his price, which has apparently gone down even after a quality fantasy start.  I remain a buyer.

You're giving me a headache. You can type all the words you want. You can explain how that 6th catch was a "sweep". You can provide all the stats about Williams from LAST year all you want. McCoy wasn't there last year.

The facts are Shady did more with his touches than Williams did. Period. End of story. 

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8 minutes ago, Payne said:

You're giving me a headache. You can type all the words you want. You can explain how that 6th catch was a "sweep". You can provide all the stats about Williams from LAST year all you want. McCoy wasn't there last year.

The facts are Shady did more with his touches than Williams did. Period. End of story. 

Trying to predict what KC is going to do with their RBs this year is a headache.  I'm hoping Reid chooses a guy as the RB1 but it might not happen.  Right now, Shady and Williams are holds.  

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28 minutes ago, Payne said:

How can you say that?? lol. You can't. It's simply your opinion.

Saying a 31 year old RBs body can't sustain a high workload isn't opinion. There's loads of empirical evidence which point to that conclusion. It's not a fact so much as it's a strong inference based on tons of historical data.

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4 hours ago, bostonfred said:

Serious question, what do you think is the ceiling for McCoy's carries this year? 

You posted a list yourself up-thread of nine RBs aged 31+ who rushed 250 times in season. 8 of the 9 averaged 3.99+ YPC. The common denominator among those names is that they were all studs at some point in their careers (except Lamar Smith) with several of them HOFers.

The closest comp on that list was Tiki Barber who in his age 31 season went 327/1662 rushing + 58/465 receiving. McCoy won't touch that on a PPG basis with DWill in the fold, but it illustrates two concepts that are very applicable to this situation:

1. An elite RB with fresh legs on a good offense can still put up elite stats;

2. IF DWill goes down, 31-yr-old Tiki may just be McCoy's league-winning late season PPG upside. And I'm willing to assign the same to DWill should McCoy go down.

Machine Gun Darwin might have something to say about all of the above. Or he might not.

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10 hours ago, bostonfred said:

 

 

Yes, and they should be. There's no value to anyone in reporting the stat line, or reporting that McCoy had a better than expected rushing performance. Everyone can see that.  

What people might not have seen or considered were the circumstances behind their play.  Like last night Vance McDonald had 2 catches for 40 yarda. I don't need you to tell me that.  What os interesting is that he had zero targets until the final drive and was targeted 3 times on longer throws at the end of the game.  That's not a pro McDonald or anti McDonald stance. That's just reporting valuable context.  Also interesting - George Kittle had two longer touchdowns called back by penalties away from the play on different drives. So did Brate. And Evan Engram- who I love this year - had a moister game, but Sterling Shepherd may have gotten a concussion and Tate is suspended.  I go to those threads hoping to read that stuff. 

Williams caught 5 balls for 40 then "caught" a jet sweep for minus one at the goal line. Last year he caught 5 passes a game in his 6 games.  This year he caught 5 plus that jet sweep.  He averages 8 a catch. 

All of that is relevant and it's all facts. 

Personally, I think it's pretty likely he'll get 5 for 40 next week, because he performed exactly as well as he had in the past. When someone says "Williams caught 6 balls for 39 yards... Yikes" it implies that he had a bad receiving game catching 6 yard dump offs. He didn't.  We've got a ton of history to look at from Miami, kc last year, the preseason when he ripped off a huge catch for a touchdown and then this game. He's consistently averaged over 8 per catch. He did again this game.

Here's some more observations. I'll start with some pro McCoy ones.

McCoy averaged over 5 yards per carry in limited action the first 3 quarters and had a 12 yard catch.  

In the 4th quarter, McCoy had 6 carries to Williams' 7. 

Thompson only had one touch - a 3 yard catch - and Darrell Williams was NOT inactive - he just played on special teams. 

 Now some pro Williams facts

Williams averaged about 12 rushes, 5 catches, 100 yarda and 1.6 touchdowns in his 6 games last year.  He had 13 rushes, 6 catches,  and 65 yards this week. 

Through the first 3 quarters, Williams out touched McCoy 11 to 5. In the 4th quarter, Williams out touched McCoy 7 to 6. 

Through the first 3 quarters, Williams had out produced McCoy 49 yards and a touchdown to 33 yards. 

In the 4th quarter, leading by 17 or more points, McCoy outperformed Williams 60 yards to 16. 

Prior to the 4th quarter, Williams 3 biggest plays were 18, 9 and 8 yard receptions. McCoy's biggest plays were a 13 yard run, 12 yard catch and 4 yard run.  

Those are all facts.  Now here's my opinion 

I totally understand why people were excited about McCoy's performance - he got more touches than expected, he didn't look old, and he way out produced Williams on the ground. 

I don't think anything changed for Williams.  I still expect him to get 10 to 12 rush attempts and 4 to 5 receptions plus goal line work.  McCoy has earned a role, but McCoy averaged 12 carries and 2 to 3 catches a game last year.  I don't expect Reid to give him more than that. Hunt only averaged about 14.  It doesn't look like Darwin or Darrell are stealing carries. The chiefs had 387 carries last year - 16x12x2 =384. So from Williams perspective, very little has changed except his price, which has apparently gone down even after a quality fantasy start.  I remain a buyer.

McCoy got there less than a week ago. Keep drilling down.  Williams is JAG.   

I’ll bump in a couple of weeks. 

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2 hours ago, zoonation said:

McCoy got there less than a week ago. Keep drilling down.  Williams is JAG.   

I’ll bump in a couple of weeks. 

Why? Because you think McCoy will do well and you want to brag about it if you're right and embarrass me for discussing my view? 

Is that seriously all the shark pool is now, i write up a bunch of stuff to support my apparently contrarian viewpoint and you write back JAG! Im going to bump this! 

That culture actively discourages discussion and encourages one line hot take I'm going to bump this later because I'm smart. I was hoping for more than that.  

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13 hours ago, Judge Smails said:

I’d be selling Williams all day long to you.  If Shady gets some goal line carries he’ll outproduce Williams in standard leagues. Williams value is on wheel routes to the house. He’s a receiver 

A lot of us play ppr

And Andy will randomly put anyone in at GL

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8 hours ago, ShamrockPride said:

Saying a 31 year old RBs body can't sustain a high workload isn't opinion. There's loads of empirical evidence which point to that conclusion. It's not a fact so much as it's a strong inference based on tons of historical data.

It's not just a question of whether his body can hold up.  It's a question of whether his coach will give him the carries. 

It's possible McCoy could handle 400 carries without any injuries or performance degradation, but Reid only gives him 160 because he's got another back and doesn't want either to get hurt.  

I guess we could ask Reid.  In fact, someone did ask him, and he said they'd split carries, and both were starters, and that McCoy was familiar with the system but needed to be eased in this week. Then for the first 3 quarters, Williams got 11 touches to McCoy's 5. In the 4th quarter, McCoy got 6 rushes to Williams 7 while they ran it out to protect a 17 point lead. 

Just to be clear - that doesn't tell us that McCoy sucks, or McCoy will never get more than x carries. It looks like they eased McCoy in then got him some carries when the game was in control and he did well with them. 

But it also doesn't suggest that Williams is losing the job, or that Reid wants McCoy to get the majority of touches, or that he's doing anything other than what he said.  And while Williams had a sticky yards per carry, he actually got more work than he averaged last year.  

So to me it seems like nothing unusual happened except that McCoy looked good, especially with two long carries in the 4th quarter, and Williams didn't have a great day running the ball against Jacksonville but he had some nice catches and a touchdown in a win.  The quarterback hurt his ankle, they will probably lean on the running backs a little more in the running and passing game if mahomes has a sore ankle because they don't want to run a lot of slow developing deep pass plays, and since all other running backs on the team combined for zero rushes and one 3 yard catch, Williams and McCoy can coexist in whatever split they have but Williams should probably be projected for 10 to 12 rushes and 4 to 5 catches until we see new information that suggests otherwise.  

It seems like a lot of people are racing to be right by saying they've already seen otherwise and McCoy is taking over, but the same things were said about Thompson and he is an afterthought.  

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I see Waldman agrees he will be the feature back and he is a lot smarter than me. 

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Everybody wants a home run hit out of this backfield when they really need to just settle on the fact that both backs, barring injury, will be a solid RB3-RB2 for the year. Both of them have value and play very well & Reid knows that he needs to keep them both active and fresh. I think the only one's that really need to be disappointed here are Thompson owners. If I'm either a McCoy or Williams owner, I'd be looking to handcuff.

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1 hour ago, Hoodoo said:

Everybody wants a home run hit out of this backfield when they really need to just settle on the fact that both backs, barring injury, will be a solid RB3-RB2 for the year. Both of them have value and play very well & Reid knows that he needs to keep them both active and fresh. I think the only one's that really need to be disappointed here are Thompson owners. If I'm either a McCoy or Williams owner, I'd be looking to handcuff.

More than likely you are correct. But I agree with those who think Shady looked better and has a real chance to take over the majority of snaps. 

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On 9/9/2019 at 2:50 PM, bostonfred said:

 

 

Yes, and they should be. There's no value to anyone in reporting the stat line, or reporting that McCoy had a better than expected rushing performance. Everyone can see that.  

What people might not have seen or considered were the circumstances behind their play.  Like last night Vance McDonald had 2 catches for 40 yarda. I don't need you to tell me that.  What os interesting is that he had zero targets until the final drive and was targeted 3 times on longer throws at the end of the game.  That's not a pro McDonald or anti McDonald stance. That's just reporting valuable context.  Also interesting - George Kittle had two longer touchdowns called back by penalties away from the play on different drives. So did Brate. And Evan Engram- who I love this year - had a moister game, but Sterling Shepherd may have gotten a concussion and Tate is suspended.  I go to those threads hoping to read that stuff. 

Williams caught 5 balls for 40 then "caught" a jet sweep for minus one at the goal line. Last year he caught 5 passes a game in his 6 games.  This year he caught 5 plus that jet sweep.  He averages 8 a catch. 

All of that is relevant and it's all facts. 

Personally, I think it's pretty likely he'll get 5 for 40 next week, because he performed exactly as well as he had in the past. When someone says "Williams caught 6 balls for 39 yards... Yikes" it implies that he had a bad receiving game catching 6 yard dump offs. He didn't.  We've got a ton of history to look at from Miami, kc last year, the preseason when he ripped off a huge catch for a touchdown and then this game. He's consistently averaged over 8 per catch. He did again this game.

Here's some more observations. I'll start with some pro McCoy ones.

McCoy averaged over 5 yards per carry in limited action the first 3 quarters and had a 12 yard catch.  

In the 4th quarter, McCoy had 6 carries to Williams' 7. 

Thompson only had one touch - a 3 yard catch - and Darrell Williams was NOT inactive - he just played on special teams. 

 Now some pro Williams facts

Williams averaged about 12 rushes, 5 catches, 100 yarda and 1.6 touchdowns in his 6 games last year.  He had 13 rushes, 6 catches,  and 65 yards this week. 

Through the first 3 quarters, Williams out touched McCoy 11 to 5. In the 4th quarter, Williams out touched McCoy 7 to 6. 

Through the first 3 quarters, Williams had out produced McCoy 49 yards and a touchdown to 33 yards. 

In the 4th quarter, leading by 17 or more points, McCoy outperformed Williams 60 yards to 16. 

Prior to the 4th quarter, Williams 3 biggest plays were 18, 9 and 8 yard receptions. McCoy's biggest plays were a 13 yard run, 12 yard catch and 4 yard run.  

Those are all facts.  Now here's my opinion 

I totally understand why people were excited about McCoy's performance - he got more touches than expected, he didn't look old, and he way out produced Williams on the ground. 

I don't think anything changed for Williams.  I still expect him to get 10 to 12 rush attempts and 4 to 5 receptions plus goal line work.  McCoy has earned a role, but McCoy averaged 12 carries and 2 to 3 catches a game last year.  I don't expect Reid to give him more than that. Hunt only averaged about 14.  It doesn't look like Darwin or Darrell are stealing carries. The chiefs had 387 carries last year - 16x12x2 =384. So from Williams perspective, very little has changed except his price, which has apparently gone down even after a quality fantasy start.  I remain a buyer.

This is some extremely well thought-out ####. Good work. You have allayed my fears for another week. 

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I think breaking down the total attempts percentage has to change with Hill's injury. You can't just put a rookie in and tell him to replace the nuance of Hill's game, however fast he may be. They're likely looking for production elsewhere, and I can see total carries going up. How this breaks down was already the issue, really, but now it depends on whether Thompson gets the extra touches or if it's divvied up between McCoy and Williams. 

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13 hours ago, bostonfred said:

I guess we could ask Reid.  In fact, someone did ask him, and he said they'd split carries, and both were starters, and that McCoy was familiar with the system but needed to be eased in this week. Then for the first 3 quarters, Williams got 11 touches to McCoy's 5. In the 4th quarter, McCoy got 6 rushes to Williams 7 while they ran it out to protect a 17 point lead. 

Just to be clear - that doesn't tell us that McCoy sucks, or McCoy will never get more than x carries. It looks like they eased McCoy in then got him some carries when the game was in control and he did well with them. 

But it also doesn't suggest that Williams is losing the job, or that Reid wants McCoy to get the majority of touches, or that he's doing anything other than what he said.  And while Williams had a sticky yards per carry, he actually got more work than he averaged last year.

Another take (and this was probably due to this week's game script) is the McCoy actually got *more* work than I would have expected for his first game, given his short time frame with the team.  He did look good, but I didn't really expect this backfield to be true timeshare until Week 4/5ish?  So if someone wants to be bullish on McCoy's prospects, I would point to that.

I say this as a former frustrated Hunt owner who thought that Reid NEVER gave Hunt the ball enough, particularly in short yardage situations, particularly around the goal line.  Reid is much more a lover of a Travis Kelce jet sweep from the 2, rather than just slamming it up between the tackles.  As such, I think that this backfield will be a week-to-week "eye of the beholder" situation as to who has the upper hand rather than a league-winning situation.  Until injuries set in, that is.

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23 hours ago, Payne said:

You're giving me a headache. You can type all the words you want. You can explain how that 6th catch was a "sweep". You can provide all the stats about Williams from LAST year all you want. McCoy wasn't there last year.

Feelings vs facts based logic is a valid conversation in magic football (and in the world at large). Personally I'll stick with facts.

23 hours ago, Payne said:

 

The facts are Shady did more with his touches than Williams did. Period. End of story.

 

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37 minutes ago, Chaka said:

Feelings vs facts based logic is a valid conversation in magic football (and in the world at large). Personally I'll stick with facts.

 

Cool. The facts are, statistically, he did better than Wiliams Sunday. Fred is trying to find ways to excuse and explain why Williams stats were not as good as Shady's. 

When, in reality, the numbers don't lie. 

McCoy - 10 carries for 81 yards - 8 yards per carry, long of 31

1 reception for 12 yards

 

Williams - 13 carries for 26 yards - 2 yards per carry, long of 6

6 receptions for 39 yards

 

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On 9/9/2019 at 6:40 PM, bostonfred said:

For those of you who think McCoy is now the workhorse

- if McCoy was out performing Williams by so much befor the 4th quarter, why did Williams get more than twice as many touches? 

- if McCoy was being held back because they weren't sure he was ready, why did they give him 6 fourth quarter carries in a blowout where they'd already lost their starting receiver and their quarterback had hurt his ankle? 

- if you believe McCoy is taking over as the feature back, how many carries do you think is reasonable to expect at age 31?  How many yarda? 

Here's a list of all the players with 180 plus carries at age 31 or older since 2000. 11 of them broke 1000 yards.

- Who else besides McCoy will get carries?  

BF he was with the team for a week...I think by all accounts McCoy played more and better than could’ve been expected.  Try and spin it all you want but. Williams pick in a redraft will likely be a bust.

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1 hour ago, Payne said:

Cool. The facts are, statistically, he did better than Wiliams Sunday. Fred is trying to find ways to excuse and explain why Williams stats were not as good as Shady's. 

When, in reality, the numbers don't lie. 

McCoy - 10 carries for 81 yards - 8 yards per carry, long of 31

1 reception for 12 yards

 

Williams - 13 carries for 26 yards - 2 yards per carry, long of 6

6 receptions for 39 yards

 

Agreed. 

Are those all the facts?

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I want no part of Williams. If you have him and you like him, great. But don't try to convince me he is great when he hasn't proven it.

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It’s week 1.

If you have a deep bench, add Thompson where someone dropped him, and hang onto him until week 7-8. 

By then Shady will have broken down and DWill will have sprained [insert body part here]

And then congratulations to you, newly minted league winner, owner of DThompson, the 3-down feature back for the #1 offense in the NFL 

:pickle:

you're welcome. 

  • Laughing 1

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On 9/9/2019 at 4:01 PM, az_prof said:

Not invested in this backfield at all. But if I were, I would try to sell everyone. I see this as likely to be a significant time share and being difficult to predict week to week who is the guy to start. If I had to have a guy, it would be McCoy but I am not going out trying to buy him either. 

RBBC on league's #1 offense is still quite valuable.  It's not good advice to avoid both of them.  

 

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4 minutes ago, IheartGuinness said:

This is getting silly. Are people starting him this week? 

I have both he and McCoy in one league. I'm not sure which guy to start. It's not really that silly. They're both about 11.5 projected in my league at Yahoo!

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I'm starting Williams over McCoy -- as of right now -- in a PPR. I think Hill being out will help him.

I think both could be startable in PPR. McCoy looked fantastic running the ball. Williams simply isn't in his league there. McCoy looked fantastic this preseason too. 

Edited by Craig_MiamiFL
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16 hours ago, rockaction said:

I think breaking down the total attempts percentage has to change with Hill's injury. You can't just put a rookie in and tell him to replace the nuance of Hill's game, however fast he may be. They're likely looking for production elsewhere, and I can see total carries going up. How this breaks down was already the issue, really, but now it depends on whether Thompson gets the extra touches or if it's divvied up between McCoy and Williams. 

except Hardman did play 55 of the 59 snaps when Hill went out.....with a full week of practice, I think Hardman gains a little more trust and in turn gets looks that he maybe didn't get in those 55....

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27 minutes ago, IheartGuinness said:

This is getting silly. Are people starting him this week? 

no matter what side you are on....this team will be in the red zone a lot....and they get there quickly.....it may really just come down to happen stance as to who is in the game at the time....I see them basically splitting ALL the work moving forward....between the 20's and red zone....total roulette wheel...

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8 minutes ago, Stinkin Ref said:

no matter what side you are on....this team will be in the red zone a lot....and they get there quickly.....it may really just come down to happen stance as to who is in the game at the time....I see them basically splitting ALL the work moving forward....between the 20's and red zone....total roulette wheel...

In standard, I can see people's hesitation. But I'd be shocked if he didn't catch at least a couple of passes, any of which could end up being a home run. Maybe I'm overconfident, but I still see him being a viable start in PPR.

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39 minutes ago, IheartGuinness said:

This is getting silly. Are people starting him this week? 

I am starting DWill. There is plenty of opportunity for both here and I anticipate their usage being about even going forward.

Both look to be back end RB 2/Flex types- startable but not elite.

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1 minute ago, IheartGuinness said:

In standard, I can see people's hesitation. But I'd be shocked if he didn't catch at least a couple of passes, any of which could end up being a home run. Maybe I'm overconfident, but I still see him being a viable start in PPR.

I think Williams is very viable in PPR still. 

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Mahomes missed Williams by a smidge on what would have been a Hunt vs NE type of 60 yard TD and a little extra to add to this narrative as it would have been a huge FF day for Williams in all formats....

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