Mark Ingram: He will far exceed his 500 yard rushing + 50 yard receiving + 4 TD career average (my guess: more than 50%)
I do not know what breakout may mean, but I interpreted it as significant increase in production; and not value for ADP.
I just obtained Ingram for $2 in my auction league. Although I have low expectations, I'd be heartened by an explanation why you think he is primed for a career year. Thanks.
Career year is a definition I struggle with.
I believe it is that hard to argue against him achieving 50% production increase, 750/75/6ish, due to his low career base up to now & based on 2013 performances that production puts him into the range of about RB 25-30.
As to my personal rationale, I trust that the Saints will adjust to their new personnel and he will benefit.
I am a Pats fan. The thing I find similar between New England and New Orleans in this context is that the mainstay is the QuarterBack. I observe that all other chips and plays may move around to the strength and versatility of how the QB can bring out the best in the personnel around him. Correct me if I am wrong, but Pats offense have been different with Moss, Welker, Woodhead, Branch, Dillon on or off the field.
The Saints have had Reggie Bush & Darren Sproles filling a particular role, though somewhat different in their unique ways. The playmakers from not long ago - 2012 - that remain on the team are only Colston, Thomas & Graham. Thomas (almost 30) is relegated to RB3 as of now. New emerging players besides Ingram look to be Cooks, Stills & Robinson. All bring forth different skills from the departed Sproles, Moore (& Thomas). I see so far that Payton is experimenting with this new offense. I can make a moderate correlation to what Fisher did last year after game 5. In that comparison, the good thing is that this is preseason for the Saints and that the Rams were a 1-3 team with their (franchise??) QB lost for the season.
With all of this comparative observations with other teams and franchise history, let me come to why I feel the way I do.
Accepting the option that Robinson may be the plodder, Ingram looks to be taking on the base role of Bush/Sproles now with the big asterisk given my line of thought above. The asterisk is that he is neither Bush nor Sproles, and that Cooks will likely take away a lot from the receiving part of that role. Yet he is in there in that base role and Payton will likely take advantage of what he brings to the field with his own skillset. I trust his downfall, if it happens, will come either from his own self, or through the emergence of another successful late round pick up, e.g. Cadet, Flanders, etc. If he can hold on to this spot, I trust that that offense steered by Brees will give him the lanes, the breaks, the screens, the gaps sufficient amount of times that 750/75/6 is rationally attainable.
{My personal gut/hope/wish/vision - whatever you may want to call - is higher than that to about 1000/200/6 and I want to hedge that bet with one of them youngsters as a preemptive FA pickup, both if my roster is deep. The picture will probably be clear in the 1st Quarter of the season and then I can drop one/both the backups for that weekly BYE week fillers.}
These are my two cents. Please take them with a grain of salt.
