bulger2holt
Footballguy
Who and why?
The draft is getting closer, and every little bit of info helps
The draft is getting closer, and every little bit of info helps
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Who's on your "do not draft" list? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter bulger2holt
- Start date
bulger2holt
Footballguy
I should have said close to their ADP.
Avery
Footballguy
I don't so much have a "do not draft" list. Every player has value.
I do have some players ranked/vaued so much below their ADP that I'm pretty damn sure that someone will take them before me.
There are a number of players like that but the first one I thought of for some reason, and maybe it's because TEs are on my mind right now, is Veron Davis. He's a physical freak but the role they put him in is just not conduce to his ADP. I'm sure that in every league I'm in, somebody will take him long before I ever would.
I do have some players ranked/vaued so much below their ADP that I'm pretty damn sure that someone will take them before me.
There are a number of players like that but the first one I thought of for some reason, and maybe it's because TEs are on my mind right now, is Veron Davis. He's a physical freak but the role they put him in is just not conduce to his ADP. I'm sure that in every league I'm in, somebody will take him long before I ever would.
steelerfan1
Footballguy
this will probably come back to get me but I couldn't take arian foster. looked slow a couple seasons ago and now with the back....in theory they aren't the powerhouse offense they used to be.
MavsXT
Footballguy
Definite will not draft: Steven Jackson, Danny Amendola, RG3----all HUGE injury risks. RG3 continued to look reckless in the Browns game last night.
Players I'm having significant reservations about unless they fall dramatically: Gronk, A Peterson, Arian Foster--- all are injury risks. I know many are high on AP because of Turner, but I can't help but to think that he's about to hit the wall at 29 considering the heavy wear on his treads. In my PPR league, I have Forte ranked above him.
Also on my high reservation list are: Dwayne Bowe (QB/motivation) and S Ridley(continues to fumble).
Players I'm having significant reservations about unless they fall dramatically: Gronk, A Peterson, Arian Foster--- all are injury risks. I know many are high on AP because of Turner, but I can't help but to think that he's about to hit the wall at 29 considering the heavy wear on his treads. In my PPR league, I have Forte ranked above him.
Also on my high reservation list are: Dwayne Bowe (QB/motivation) and S Ridley(continues to fumble).
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bulger2holt
Footballguy
haha, i'm not too far behind you on this. But for some reason, I like Decker at his current ADP. Round 8?
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Faust
MVP
Soulfly3
Footballguy
bulger2holt
Footballguy
If RG3 scares you (scares me too), does that shy you away from Morris, Garcon and DJax too?
MavsXT
Footballguy
Not so much, because I think those players can continue to be successful with Cousins behind center. Actually think Morris could be a little underrated going into this season if anything. If I would downgrade any of those players it would be DJax given that Cousins probably would not get it to him deep as often.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
Every season, I pretty much have only a handful of guys I will draft and everyone else, for the most part, is undraftable to me. So I go into the draft, trying to figure out how to get as many of "my" guys as possible. I haven't actually counted, but I probably have 40 guys I target and everyone else I barely notice.
Jedi Knight
Footballguy
QB- Alex Smith- Lost three starters on the OL/ Not playing a last place schedule this year
Sam Bradford-
RB- Arian Foster
Trent Richardson
Frank Gore
WR- Danny Amendola
Andre Johnson- Because I don't like the QB situation
Sam Bradford-
RB- Arian Foster
Trent Richardson
Frank Gore
WR- Danny Amendola
Andre Johnson- Because I don't like the QB situation
I completely agree with this, it's the same for me. Part of fantasy is having a team that you like and honestly, most players I wouldn't draft.
ebsteelers
Footballguy
T-rich
bulger2holt
Footballguy
Futz
Footballguy
Please understand that these are all predicated on the idea that I'm not drafting these guys based on ADP.
QB
RGIII --- I'm just not sold on him as an NFL QB. He just isn't passing the eyeball test. Backup at best
Cam --- Their commitment to the running game, WR deficient, and a strong defense which leads to low scores doesn't excite me from a starting FF QB standpoint
Foles --- Once NFL teams have film on you, regression is inevitable. Subtract Desean and no thanks. I like him long term, just not this year
RB
Arian Foster--- Call me 8th pick scorned in 13' but a RB with his workload, a serious 2013 back injury, and a history of hamstrings is not even making my board before the 4th round.
Levon Bell --- He's solid and was a late round gamble last year who payed off nicely. However, the appeal of last year was the volume he received and I just don't see it with Blount breathing down his neck and especially at the goal line.
Ben Tate --- He's getting some love because he's playing the best at RB on what I think is a really crappy team. Throw in the fact he's got a rookie waiting to pounce on carries. Translation: 15 carries 65 yards a game. Not good enough for where he'll get drafted IMO.
WR
Andre Johnson --- QB play and his heart is truly not going to be in it come week 5-6. Love his ability but unless he gets traded, avoid , avoid, avoid.
Calvin Johnson --- Here's my shocker. Love him and as a Lion's fan, it's hard to say this but O.C Joe Lombardi comes from the N.O. olive branch in which they spread the ball around and simply exploit what they think is the mismatch each week. Teams are not going to leave CJ alone so his coverage will dictate the ball going to Tate, Ebron, and just about everyone else. Unlike previous years, Stafford will trust the talent level around him.It's getting pounded into his mindset to play smart and not force the ball to CJ or anyone else for that matter. Trust me when I say Tate could put up similar numbers at a 6 round discount.
TE
Greg Olsen --- Naturally, when the WRs are a question mark he becomes a main target. Problem is, defenses will be saying the same thing and defend accordingly
Dennis Pitta --- I know the OC leans TE but I think we are asking a lot of a guy coming off a major injury to all of a sudden be the primary target as some suggest. If he's your backup, I'm thrilled, otherwise don't get caught up in the hype.
QB
RGIII --- I'm just not sold on him as an NFL QB. He just isn't passing the eyeball test. Backup at best
Cam --- Their commitment to the running game, WR deficient, and a strong defense which leads to low scores doesn't excite me from a starting FF QB standpoint
Foles --- Once NFL teams have film on you, regression is inevitable. Subtract Desean and no thanks. I like him long term, just not this year
RB
Arian Foster--- Call me 8th pick scorned in 13' but a RB with his workload, a serious 2013 back injury, and a history of hamstrings is not even making my board before the 4th round.
Levon Bell --- He's solid and was a late round gamble last year who payed off nicely. However, the appeal of last year was the volume he received and I just don't see it with Blount breathing down his neck and especially at the goal line.
Ben Tate --- He's getting some love because he's playing the best at RB on what I think is a really crappy team. Throw in the fact he's got a rookie waiting to pounce on carries. Translation: 15 carries 65 yards a game. Not good enough for where he'll get drafted IMO.
WR
Andre Johnson --- QB play and his heart is truly not going to be in it come week 5-6. Love his ability but unless he gets traded, avoid , avoid, avoid.
Calvin Johnson --- Here's my shocker. Love him and as a Lion's fan, it's hard to say this but O.C Joe Lombardi comes from the N.O. olive branch in which they spread the ball around and simply exploit what they think is the mismatch each week. Teams are not going to leave CJ alone so his coverage will dictate the ball going to Tate, Ebron, and just about everyone else. Unlike previous years, Stafford will trust the talent level around him.It's getting pounded into his mindset to play smart and not force the ball to CJ or anyone else for that matter. Trust me when I say Tate could put up similar numbers at a 6 round discount.
TE
Greg Olsen --- Naturally, when the WRs are a question mark he becomes a main target. Problem is, defenses will be saying the same thing and defend accordingly
Dennis Pitta --- I know the OC leans TE but I think we are asking a lot of a guy coming off a major injury to all of a sudden be the primary target as some suggest. If he's your backup, I'm thrilled, otherwise don't get caught up in the hype.
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bulger2holt
Footballguy
Dan Hindery
Moderator
I will highlight one guy at each position that I would avoid. (Note: these are for PPR)
1. RB Alfred Morris- Gruden has always been pass happy, especially inside the red zone. I don't see Morris having more than 1,200 yards and 8 TDs. That's his ceiling to me. And without much of a contribution as a receiver, he will have trouble breaking 200 fantasy points again which just doesn't cut it in PPR. Morris is coming off a season where he averaged a measly 11 PPG in PPR and yet still going in the top 30 overall. Perhaps he bounces back, but his lack of receiving ability means he would have to have a pretty monstrous rushing total to exceed his ADP. There just is not any upside and plenty of downside.
2. WR Wes Welker- There are just so many mouths to feed in the Denver passing offense with Demaryius Thomas, Julius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders and Cody Latimer all competing with Welker for targets. At age 33, I think Welker has lost a step and that the younger guys continue to emerge. Welker wasn't a huge difference maker even last year in a record setting season for Manning. With the passing TDs likely to fall quite a bit, there just doesn't seem to be enough upside to justify drafting Welker as a top 20 WR.
3. TE Vernon Davis- Davis just does not get enough targets to consistently amass points if he is not scoring a whole lot of TDs. Davis needs to score double digit TDs again to come close to justifying his top 5 TE ADP. If he scores 5 or 6 like he did in 2011 and 2012, he is going to massively underperform. He seems to be getting drafted at his ceiling so even best case scenario, he is just an okay pick.
4. QB Matt Ryan- The return of Julio Jones helps, but that OL still looks like a mess. The Sam Baker injury is especially worrisome due to a lack of depth on the line. I also think Ryan will really miss the presence of Tony Gonzalez in the red zone. While Ryan is still a solid fantasy option and it would not surprise me to see him justify his ADP of QB8, there are just too many questions at this point compared to the other top QBs. Tony Romo for example is going 2 rounds later and arguably has more upside and a higher floor. Jay Cutler and Andy Dalton are both going outside of the top 12 QBs and have similar profiles to Ryan with top receiving weapons at their disposal and better OLs protecting them.
1. RB Alfred Morris- Gruden has always been pass happy, especially inside the red zone. I don't see Morris having more than 1,200 yards and 8 TDs. That's his ceiling to me. And without much of a contribution as a receiver, he will have trouble breaking 200 fantasy points again which just doesn't cut it in PPR. Morris is coming off a season where he averaged a measly 11 PPG in PPR and yet still going in the top 30 overall. Perhaps he bounces back, but his lack of receiving ability means he would have to have a pretty monstrous rushing total to exceed his ADP. There just is not any upside and plenty of downside.
2. WR Wes Welker- There are just so many mouths to feed in the Denver passing offense with Demaryius Thomas, Julius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders and Cody Latimer all competing with Welker for targets. At age 33, I think Welker has lost a step and that the younger guys continue to emerge. Welker wasn't a huge difference maker even last year in a record setting season for Manning. With the passing TDs likely to fall quite a bit, there just doesn't seem to be enough upside to justify drafting Welker as a top 20 WR.
3. TE Vernon Davis- Davis just does not get enough targets to consistently amass points if he is not scoring a whole lot of TDs. Davis needs to score double digit TDs again to come close to justifying his top 5 TE ADP. If he scores 5 or 6 like he did in 2011 and 2012, he is going to massively underperform. He seems to be getting drafted at his ceiling so even best case scenario, he is just an okay pick.
4. QB Matt Ryan- The return of Julio Jones helps, but that OL still looks like a mess. The Sam Baker injury is especially worrisome due to a lack of depth on the line. I also think Ryan will really miss the presence of Tony Gonzalez in the red zone. While Ryan is still a solid fantasy option and it would not surprise me to see him justify his ADP of QB8, there are just too many questions at this point compared to the other top QBs. Tony Romo for example is going 2 rounds later and arguably has more upside and a higher floor. Jay Cutler and Andy Dalton are both going outside of the top 12 QBs and have similar profiles to Ryan with top receiving weapons at their disposal and better OLs protecting them.
Dan Hindery
Moderator
I love the homer take on players and this is an interesting perspective on Johnson that I had not heard. Will definitely be watching to see if this is the case. I think there is some hyperbole here, but it is possible that the better secondary receiving options cut into his target total a little bit and his receptions fall by a dozen or so.
I do disagree with you on Pitta. By all accounts he has been 100% and regained all of his explosiveness. I also think that the Ravens roster construction really works in his favor. Torrey and Steve Smith are both outside guys. Same with Jacoby Jones and Marlon Brown. One of those guys may bet some time in the slot out of pure necessity, but I think the de facto slot WR will be Pitta. He is going to be the go-to guy in the middle of the field and should have a very nice season in PPR leagues.
hoopvillian
Footballguy
Bowe is 15+ round pick to me.
bulger2holt
Footballguy
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Kenny Britt
Futz
Footballguy
CJ's talent is undeniable and I certainly would never call him a bust. I just think when people are taking him in the first round, they are not seeing the changes in philosophy in the Detroit camp. The Lions will be more successful IF they find a way of relying less on him and I think this coaching staff fully understands this. Just look at what made N.O. so successful. Great QB play and a truly unpredictable offense.
As far as Pitta is concerned, I think all the guys you mentioned helped make my point more valid. Smith at this stage of his career is going to be a move the chains with an occasional explosive play. Torrey is nothing but a big play and Brown is a great red zone candidate. Pierce will be relied upon more and Rice might just turn into more a receiver out of the backfield. Pitta is talented, but coming off an injury and sharing this many touches just doesn't do it for me.
TwinTurbo
Footballguy
For Bell, I feel he is the most likely of the 2013 RB class for a sophomore slump. Yes he'll likely get a ton of carries, but the Steelers have a tough schedule against the run and Blount is a decent backup. His ADP is RB#10 which is fair but I don't see much upside.
For Ellington, he lacks the ideal size to be a feature back and has a long history of minor injuries. He definitely looks smaller than he is listed on paper. I do love his game, but not at RB#12 where he is currently being drafted.
steelerfan1
Footballguy
hi futz,
ashamed to say not really too familiar with lombardi's offense.
we see how graham is utilized in new orleans and the numbers he puts up.
has he had a receiver like calvin to design a gameplan with?
ashamed to say not really too familiar with lombardi's offense.
we see how graham is utilized in new orleans and the numbers he puts up.
has he had a receiver like calvin to design a gameplan with?
Judge Smails
Footballguy
One of the best threads of the season so far. Excellent comments here gents! I'm in agreement with the great majority of them. Like 99%. Though the shine will be off some of these players to where they have to be considered based on how far they fall. Gore is an example, is a guy I won't ignore in a redraft. The wheels will come off at some point, but he's not breaking down like a Foster yet. Some of those aging guys will deliver..
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Futz
Footballguy
CJ is bigger than Colston and has the body control of Joe Horn so yes you bring up a valid point. Why wouldn't Lombardi design the offense around him? It starts there, but it doesn't end there and THAT along with really good QB play makes his offense what it is. Diversify or get crucified which is what happened in Detroit the last two years. Everyone and their second cousin knew if you game planned to shut down CJ, they didn't have enough ammo to counteract it. This season will be different. This is the most talented WR core I've seen in a long time in Detroit.
TheFootballJesus
Footballguy
I am not getting the Andre Johnson hate at all. At his best Schuab in Houston was an above average QB, he was mediocre for large portions of his tenure there. Andre had over 1400 receiving yards last year- do you really think the QB play could be much worse than it was? They had the worst team in the league and he didn't quit on the squad. They didn't add any new targets in the passing game and he's going to be a target hog again. Bill O'Brien is renowned for his work with quarterbacks as well- it's hard for me to envision a scenario where AJ doesn't reach 1200 receiving yards.
I'm honestly puzzled that the guy is being drafted behind the likes of Fitz, Welker, and Patterson and think he's highly UNDERVALUED.
I'm honestly puzzled that the guy is being drafted behind the likes of Fitz, Welker, and Patterson and think he's highly UNDERVALUED.
steelerfan1
Footballguy
thanks for your insight.
have you done projections on calvin?
if you had to put numbers to him what do you have?
Futz
Footballguy
I really see Calvin doing just about as good as Colston's best year in N.O. which puts him at 85-1300-10. Absolutely nothing to sneeze at but is this really that much better than the next 7 WRs on your draft board? It's just a steep investment IMO. You mention Graham and I'd take him and a whole lot of other players in the first round over CJ at this stage of the game.
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SameSongNDance
Footballguy
Murray - Don't think he can finish a full 16 so adjusted my rankings accordingly.
Lynch - Has out-touched every RB over the past 3 years, believe Turbin/Micheal will get more work.
Foster - Physical and mental question mark, someone else can take the gamble.
K. Allen - Low-end WR1 price tag is too rich for me. Increased attention from opposing defenses, SD really wants to run the ball. Afraid he'll be streaky.
Vereen - See Murray.
R. Rice - Overworked, suspension, role in question.
Ben Tate - See Vereen.
Lynch - Has out-touched every RB over the past 3 years, believe Turbin/Micheal will get more work.
Foster - Physical and mental question mark, someone else can take the gamble.
K. Allen - Low-end WR1 price tag is too rich for me. Increased attention from opposing defenses, SD really wants to run the ball. Afraid he'll be streaky.
Vereen - See Murray.
R. Rice - Overworked, suspension, role in question.
Ben Tate - See Vereen.
steelerfan1
Footballguy
thanks again for your thoughts and input. will be hoping interesting to see how it plays out....oh..and ps...I hope you are wrong
Alonzo Mosely
Footballguy
I'll let you know when the Otis Value Thread comes out.
Skeletore Eh
Footballguy
I think you folks are crazy about Calvin. Colston #'s? Tate might put up similar numbers? Come on
False Start
Footballguy
I stopped reading after his first one on the list... Peyton Manning. Who in the world would shy away from him? Even if he throws 40 TDs he is worth whatever price you pay. Plus, the rest of the list is not good. Horrible advice, I hope people in my league read this.
As far as other comments in this thread, the reason why some people are passing on players is mind blowing. Every year people let media/blogger/beat writer hype mislead their decisions, but how does it turn out? When they tell you the next best thing is David Wilson, how does it go? Now they tell some about Michael and through a whole season and halfway through his second preseason he is still behind Turbin.
Sometimes you have to just take what you read with a grain of salt, some are not here.
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On The Rocks
Evil Conservative
Fred Taylor
Godsbrother
Footballguy
Spiller. Got burned last year and don't see the situation being any better for him in Buffalo.
pantherclub
Footballguy
pantherclub
Footballguy
Sjax
AFoster
Big Ben
Deangelo Williams
David Boston
AFoster
Big Ben
Deangelo Williams
David Boston
