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Lesean McCoy? How concerned are we? (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Sabertooth
- Start date
White Lightning
Footballguy
I've read that McCoy's struggles, and Kelly's willingness to let him go, were largely based on his running style not fitting with the Eagles blocking scheme. In other words, McCoy's tendency to dance around did not work well with Kelly's "hit the hole hard" approach. Assuming this is his running style, will it translate well to Ryan's offense/blocking scheme?
Shutout
Footballguy
It does not matter one bit all the people trying to analyze this and get a measureable number to translate into why this WON'T work for McCoy because the simple truth, without trying to overthink it is, you simply don't take this kind of pure talent+this volume of workload+a HC who wants to run the ball this much+the lack of a true QB and not end up with fantasy significance.
Sure, there will be people that want to hold McCoy to his own standard of expectation or pick on how he should get .4 more YPC or some stat but at the end of the day, the volume alone will boost him up to where, at worst, he is 2014 DeMarco Murray in terms of opportunity and , at best, he is LT in a career year if he happens to crank out 16+Tds.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
So you're projecting DeMarco Murray 2014 touches as his floor? I would think that would be his ceiling.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
McCoy is a great buy low right now
Shutout
Footballguy
Might seem a little silly at first glance but then again, the 2014 Cowboys and the 2014 Jets rushed the ball 508 vs. 507 times, so, the Jets, a far inferior team which didn't have nearly the line nor the opportunity to reasonably be running as much as one of the most dominant lines in recent memory...did. And they did it with far less RB talent than the Bills have this year. And Rex Ryan has shown that he will always, always run the ball (I think his teams are top 5-6 7 out of 8 past years, regardless of talent/situation.
And to be clear, I said his production in terms of opportunity (Ryan WILL RUN) is where Murray was...I'm not going to argue with people who want to say he "only" gets 415 touches vs. 450 that Murray got.
The underlying point, again, is keep it simple. The attempts will come and the fantasy production will come. No, we may not say "dang, he averages 5.5 ypc and he breask off 30+yard TDs every 10 carries. But he's going to be a top 5-10 fantasy RB just because of who he is and who he plays for.
Shutout
Footballguy
For the third time, "in terms of opportunity". Does no one actually read anymore?
"at worst, he is 2014 DeMarco Murray in terms of opportunity"
People are reading just fine (besides yourself perhaps). Assuming you're equating opportunity with touches, it's beyond silly to say that he's going to have a top 6 all-time season as a floor.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
No RB in NFL history has ever had a 450 touch floor. To even suggest as much is patently absurd. 450 touches is pretty wildly optimistic even as a ceiling.
Shutout
Footballguy
See, that's your problem. You assume and try to read into and manufacture what you want out what is not there.
In terms of opportunity means, just as it was meant to say, in very simple terms and without overthinking it (as I said in the first sentence of the post), that McCoy is going to get an enormous opportunity next year with many touches because of the reasons I listed. I even said I'm not arguing with people trying to say 415 touches vs. 450. It's just as simple as what I said in the 2-3 posts where I listed Ryan's history, listed that the Jets, although it wouldn't seem obvious on the surface, ran the ball just as much as the Cowboys last year.
It really can't be more simple but, as the author of those words, I can tell you clearly that while you may be reading it just fine, you're not comprehending and that seems to be a theme every time you respond to one of my posts. You take a broad statement and try to boil it down to something particular and then try to say something that makes it seem laughable. Like last year with Foster. Last time I checked, he didn't retire and he was pretty danged good, again. As usual. I really don't understand why some people put so much energy into trying to look smart by saying "nuh uh" to a lot of people instead of just reading other opinions, having a discussion (not an argument) and then making the decision for yourself.
It's really not that hard to be a decent person towards others.
Shutout
Footballguy
I didn't say that. Humpback assumed it. Somehow, the word opportunity translates to him as "this player must have all the same statistic numbers beside his name in 2015 as Murray did in 2014." Some people just can't process dynamic situations unless the comparison lines up in front of them like a consumer reports "we tested the year's best routers" report.
The thing that separates GREAT FF players these days, in an era where there is so much information available easily to everyone, is the FF guys that have the ability to understand both the Reality along with the stats and understand how business and model perceptions work and affect real humans tend to "get it" better.
You said my problem is that I'm assuming you're talking about touches, and then went on to say you meant that he would get a lot of touches.
Yes, the Jets ran the ball a lot last year, but they split the touches much more than they did in Dallas- just like they have in every year under Rex besides his 1st. In his 6 seasons as HC and Roman's 4 as OC, they have had 1 RB combined reach 300 touches in a season, and it was 6 years ago. The Bills also are highly unlikely to be nearly as good of an offense as Dallas was last year, so he likely won't get as many "opportunities" as Murray to score, either. I agree McCoy will get a lot of touches, but there's nothing suggesting anything close to what Murray got last year as a floor. That goes for everyone in the history of the NFL.
You're FOS about Foster, per usual. All I said was that there was a chance that he retires in the next few years, which was based on words directly out of his own mouth. I never said it was going to happen, was quite clear that it was unlikely, just a possibility. But, hey, who cares about facts?
Sorry I called you out on your hyperbole- carry on with it.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
Seems like most people are reading this the same way. If you mean "McCoy should be among the leaders at RB in total touches this year" just say that and no one will likely argue it too much.
Personally, I think that the workload is a given. I'm far more interested / concerned with McCoy himself -- he wasn't the same guy, at all, in 2014 vs 2013. Why? Also, he is moving from a really good offense to what has been a pretty crappy one, so more safeties in the box, less TD opportunity, fewer sustained drives. How will the passing down work be split up between Jackson and McCoy? The short yardage between Dixon & McCoy?
Those are far more interesting to me, and will likely determine McCoy's value. His floor is going to be borderline RB1 / RB2 regardless. His ceiling and chances of getting there are what I'd rather look at.
VarsityBlues123
Footballguy
Strange fact about McCoy. He had 97 more carries than Lamar Miller, and only 220 more yards while finishing with less points too in standard PPR.
Volume does not equal production for what its worth.
chad in Indy
Footballguy
I'll chalk up part of the first bolded statement above to injuries to the o-line in Philly.
It's pretty safe to say McCoy will rack up plenty of touches. But I'm guessing peoples' issue with this statement is that opportunity can't be viewed in a vacuum. For example:
- The O-line in Buffalo is laughable compared to Dallas'
- Touches in the redzone will be less (most likely)
- Murray's usage regardless of down/distance v. Rex and Roman's use of a RBBC for down/distance scenarios
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
Yeah, no doubt the issues on the o-line played a role, as did Sproles taking catches and the fall off in TDs. But I'm talking more about the eyeball test (which I'm normally not a huge fan of) -- I've been a multiple dynasty McCoy owner since his rookie year, and he really didn't look as quick or decisive to me last year. Then the Eagles sent him packing, and that vote of "no confidence" from Chip Kelly outweighs the Rex Ryan endorsement as far as offensive players are concerned IMO. All told, I'm concerned. I'm expecting more 2014 production from McCoy in Buffalo, as opposed to 2013's league winning type numbers if I'm being honest with myself.
I wouldn't take McCoy in the first two rounds this year. Whatever PHI OL injuries contributed to his demise last year, the quality of the BUF OL will match, if not be a larger drag on his efficiency. You also have Matt Cassel or Tyrod Taylor or EJ Manuel at QB (ie defenses are going to make the QB beat them and overplay the run), and an offense that isn't going to set him up for a lot of scoring opportunities.
It's hard to get excited about volume when it's going to be low quality volume and he had 342 touches in a much better offense last year, amounting to mid-RB2 numbers.
What worries me the most about McCoy is that he looked like a runner who was vastly overestimating his quickness and speed. He tried to bounce everything outside a la his days at Pitt, but never had the wheels to get to the corner. He was unwilling to make decisive upfield cuts when the blocking wasn't ideal, and that is going to be a common occurrence in Buffalo. On the whole it reminded me of how Chris Johnson lost effectiveness before the typical mileage/wall (26 yrs old to be exact) when he lost his edge as a runner.
I wouldn't be shocked if Fred Jackson's role gets larger as the season goes on, his mindset as a runner is a much better fit for what Buffalo will need.
The bottom line is that McCoy was an affirmatively poor runner last year in a terrific situation. His situation has gotten worse, and the Bills also gave him a new deal. I don't we're going to see a much different player than we saw last year, which means he'll be a huge disappointment if you use a first or second on him. But watch folks act surprised when he resumes putting up stat lines like 21-74 and 24-81.
It's hard to get excited about volume when it's going to be low quality volume and he had 342 touches in a much better offense last year, amounting to mid-RB2 numbers.
What worries me the most about McCoy is that he looked like a runner who was vastly overestimating his quickness and speed. He tried to bounce everything outside a la his days at Pitt, but never had the wheels to get to the corner. He was unwilling to make decisive upfield cuts when the blocking wasn't ideal, and that is going to be a common occurrence in Buffalo. On the whole it reminded me of how Chris Johnson lost effectiveness before the typical mileage/wall (26 yrs old to be exact) when he lost his edge as a runner.
I wouldn't be shocked if Fred Jackson's role gets larger as the season goes on, his mindset as a runner is a much better fit for what Buffalo will need.
The bottom line is that McCoy was an affirmatively poor runner last year in a terrific situation. His situation has gotten worse, and the Bills also gave him a new deal. I don't we're going to see a much different player than we saw last year, which means he'll be a huge disappointment if you use a first or second on him. But watch folks act surprised when he resumes putting up stat lines like 21-74 and 24-81.
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Shutout
Footballguy
-That is what I said but I don't apologize for people not holding a broader scope of the statement (and I don't mean that directly at you or anything.. We all need clarification from time to time but there a few people around that seem to want to pick nits and play games on every statement).
Saying "in terms of opportunity" should not lead people to assume that we are talking about a firm, exact number or situation (touches). Especially when it is prefaced by saying the Jets and Rex Ryan were very similar to the Cowboys in some of these ways. It is a broad statement that, as was mentioned with a few other points, is meant to encompass the whole situation. If I had wanted to say something specific with exact numbers, I would, but this scenario is about looking at an overall picture of volume and without arguing that one guy might have more RZ touches or one might catch more or one has more or less competition...without throwing 10 more ingredients in to the stew, its a simple statement that the opportunity is there for a good season.
Just my opinion but I think there are times and places to try to compare players against themselves. Far too often I think we ignore a lot of important things because its easy. Saying Shady was not himself last year compared to the previous and ignoring all the issues they had with line, with new personnel, etc is not fair. That's like saying Reggie Wayne wasn't himself in 2011 compared to 2010. Sure. And everyone said he was getting too old back then too. But the fact that he missed Peyton Manning that year had something to do with it and then in 2012 he had a great year. There are so many reasons to see why players don't remain the exact same thing every single year that it becomes too easy to say "he's a rb, he's older" or whatever. Football is the ultimate sport that depends on various things working together and sometimes its not just that a guy went from being universally thought of as a top talent to being bad. We overreact way too much, both ways, in FF.
When we are smart, we can definitely see how opportunities change the game for a fantasy player. It was not hard to see how Reid coming to KC meant a boon for Charles. The things that may hinder Shady in Buffalo are legit. But it rarely is as 100% as we think. Yes, more players in the box sucks. But maybe a much better defense also creates better opportunities on turnovers or field position in general. Maybe BECAUSE the Qb is weaker means tons of short passes. Maybe the coaches openly saying they want FJAX to have his workload cut in half, as they have stated, is actually truth. Lots of what ifs but as most people say, the talent rises to the top. I have no doubt Shady is still a top shelf RB talent so I give the benefit of the doubt. Again, just one guy's opinion.
Shutout
Footballguy
I know you see and study these things a bit so I will ask you this re: what you say about how shady "looked" behind that line.
There have been several reports come out from Shady's side, and the Eagles side, saying that Chip was frustrated with Shady last year because Chip wanted the ball ran more north-south and not bouncing it, etc.
So, is it possible that instead of seeing him last year and thinking "he looks bad compared to before" that it could be that the team misused him? That they took away what he was good at and it didn't work? That Shady looked befuddled because (and probably wrong on his part), he expected the guys to play to his strength and they simply followed the coach's instructions and didn't? There are QBs who would be terrible if asked to bootleg. There are WRs that would be terrible if asked to try to run speed routes when they are possession guys. They aren't bad players, they are just sometimes used poorly.
Whether that is the case for Shady, I won't say I know. I don't. I just leave it open as a possibility. Much the same way where I don't just see one side of things and say a poorer o-line in Buffalo and a weak offense means less opportunity. THat could just as easily be, if you are open to it, as saying the much BETTER defense in Buffalo will generate opportunities where the opponent's defense is put right back out on the field and Shady runs past tired defenders. Or that a bills line that was bad as power blockers might be very good as zone blockers. Just saying we don't know. I remember the year the Saints went to the Super Bowl, all the experts calling for a 4-5 win season. As shocking as it is to believe, many times these NFL coaches figure something out in the offseason.
One thing I do KNOW for certain is that Ryan likes to Run and Ryan didn't pull the trigger to get Shady to not use him a ton.
You need to have more to hang your hat on than that if you're going to invest one of your first two picks on McCoy. He was used a ton last year and only got over 15 PPR pts 6 times in 16 games. Fred Jackson and Matt Asiata were better on a PPG basis in PPR leagues than McCoy
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
What killed McCoy last year was low catches and TDs. I don't think he's going to be a TD machine given the Buffalo offense, so his use as a receiver is going to be key (assuming PPR). And Fred Jackson is a really good blocker and receiver -- and given his age and the desire to limit his workload, a "passing down specialist" role would seem to be a good fit.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Matt Cassell is not a great QB, but he's smart and accurate - if opposing teams employ that strategy, the Bills have receivers like Watkins, Harvin and Clay that are very good runners after the catch and could make them pay. A quick slant or bubble screen could be a big gain if two safeties are up in the box.
Shutout
Footballguy
That's a pretty one sided view of it. Emmanuel Sanders was used a ton and got great results. Antonio Brown, same.
There were a lot of moveable parts between then and now but generally speaking any time a well-known talented player is put into a position to obviously be used a lot, we like that. Julio Jones is in that position this year because of Shanahan. Do we think he will be fine? Justin Forsett was in that position last year and this year and despite being a marginal talent, we think he will be fine.
Long story short, we have seen McCoy be a truly elite RB in this league. What a lot of people are letting cloud their judgment right now is simply the recency effect of being let down. He had RB1-RB2 expectations going into last year (rightfully so because he lit it up the year before). He then had at top 12 season which is pretty danged good, but the ff community devoted multiple threads to worrying about him. He failed to live up to the loftiest of expectations, therefore he was a failure, despite the top 12 finish and I'm sure he led several teams to titles last year.
Every time a player "burns" the ff community, the reaction is too extreme. They paid #1 price last year and "only" got top 12. Therefore they will be damned if they do that again. Aside from probably 4-5 players, there is no completely "safe" player in the first 2 picks so why not invest it in a guy that has proven to be one of the best, who has no significant injury, and is in the rare position of a RB that is clearly the bellcow? In recent years, people have passed on Gronk because they got burned. Then they got burned last year FOR passing on him. They passed on Lacy because they couldn't see the opportunity...Crowed about it for the first 4 weeks. Then griped about as he led teams to FF titles. Nobody wants to be that guy in fantasy that makes the same mistake on the same guy twice. I don't know where we got those super-inflated egos but that's how it is. But sometimes you just have to be able to recognize the trend from the mirage. LeSean McCoy is one of the best backs in the NFL. The idea that any player can't have a snake bitten bad year is silly. People try to manufacture the future instead of analyze the past. I've never had a fantasy player on my team that hasn't had at least one bad year (except Eddie Lacy...so far, he's doing just fine). It's going to happen.
JetMaxx
Footballguy
Fred Jackson as a goal line and passing down vulture is what takes the OL/QB concerns over the top for me.
Norcalhoya
Footballguy
A few
1. Oline analysis/projection in general I feel like is some of the most volatile out there YoY. I feel like last year's best line rarely lives up to the hype the following year. Maybe Dallas is the exception because they reloaded so much this year, but San Francisco used to be have dominant line, then all of a sudden became average. Mike Iupati went from maybe the best run blocking guard in the league to below-average last year. Philly was the same thing last year (granted injuries played a part). Wasn't everyone talking about how awful GB's line was going to be last offseason? I just feel like these things have a way of mean-reverting quite quickly (and unpredictably). Are we so sure Buffalo is going to have a terrible Oline this year?
2. The other aspect of the Buffalo that I like for McCoy is I think they will be a good team. Look around the AFC. Is Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Cincinnati, or Denver head and shoulders above Buffalo in terms of talent on their roster? They obviously are at the most important position, QB, but I have a feeling Buffalo is going to be a 10-6 team this year. that defense is going to keep them in games and give the offense a few short fields and more opportunities. Buffalo's offense is awfully talented save the QB position. If they surprise and DO get competennt QB play, I think it's huge upside that's not at all priced in right now.
Things that scare me though...
3. I'm not sure I want McCoy getting 350+ touches. He's already had a ton over the past 3 years. Foster's ability to maintain elite RB status last year is a little reassuring, but McCoy is starting to look past his prime at only 26. He entered the league very young and again has had a lot of touches.
4. Role. I do think McCoy will catch more balls than he did in Philly, but if he's not the goall ine back then it will obviously be a huge dampener on his upside.
I kind of feel like McCoy has some of the widest ranges in terms of outcomes. Would it shock anyone if he led the league in rushing? That said, I think it's just as likely he goes down in flames a la Chris Johnson. We shall see...
A few points Sig.
1. Oline analysis/projection in general I feel like is some of the most volatile out there YoY. I feel like last year's best line rarely lives up to the hype the following year. Maybe Dallas is the exception because they reloaded so much this year, but San Francisco used to be have dominant line, then all of a sudden became average. Mike Iupati went from maybe the best run blocking guard in the league to below-average last year. Philly was the same thing last year (granted injuries played a part). Wasn't everyone talking about how awful GB's line was going to be last offseason? I just feel like these things have a way of mean-reverting quite quickly (and unpredictably). Are we so sure Buffalo is going to have a terrible Oline this year?
2. The other aspect of the Buffalo that I like for McCoy is I think they will be a good team. Look around the AFC. Is Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Cincinnati, or Denver head and shoulders above Buffalo in terms of talent on their roster? They obviously are at the most important position, QB, but I have a feeling Buffalo is going to be a 10-6 team this year. that defense is going to keep them in games and give the offense a few short fields and more opportunities. Buffalo's offense is awfully talented save the QB position. If they surprise and DO get competennt QB play, I think it's huge upside that's not at all priced in right now.
Things that scare me though...
3. I'm not sure I want McCoy getting 350+ touches. He's already had a ton over the past 3 years. Foster's ability to maintain elite RB status last year is a little reassuring, but McCoy is starting to look past his prime at only 26. He entered the league very young and again has had a lot of touches.
4. Role. I do think McCoy will catch more balls than he did in Philly, but if he's not the goall ine back then it will obviously be a huge dampener on his upside.
I kind of feel like McCoy has some of the widest ranges in terms of outcomes. Would it shock anyone if he led the league in rushing? That said, I think it's just as likely he goes down in flames a la Chris Johnson. We shall see...
Ted Mullins
Footballguy
I absolutely agree with this and am usually looking to take advantage of it, but I feel like the combination of McCoy being a big name/multiple elite years, his new situation, and the usual mad dash to grab RBs has resulted in less of a discount than I am comfortable with thus far - we'll see where he is going in August.Shutout said:
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cliffhuxtible
Footballguy
To me, McCoy HAS to be involved in the passing game in order to overcome his lack of goal line carries. I've had him in a TD-heavy league for his entire career. Reed was better about giving him goal line opportunities than Kelly, but McCoy always looked great catching the ball in Reed's offense, and that helped his TD totals in lean rushing TD years. There are not many receiving backs better than Darren Sproles so I have to think McCoy does better in the passing game in Buffalo. His receiving opportunities plummeted under Kelly. The lack of QB talent in Buffalo could actually help his receiving game.
I am obviously a McCoy fan but I'll be surprised if his production on the ground in Buffalo is great. In terms of TD's, I'd be thrilled with 10 TD's next year: 7 rushing, 3 receiving.
Shutout
Footballguy
I agree on Sproles. Lookin gback, shoulda seen that coming a mile away but I guess (for me anyways), I thought maybe Sproles game was slowing down.
Anyway, i'll take the other side of the coin on the ground game production in Buffalo. Chip really surped that aspect from Shady so we are left with that memory pretty fresh but Rex is totally a HC that is going to give Shady the vast majority of GL looks. He's not going to be smoke and mirrors and stress and distraction. He's going to be "we're down here and we're gonna pop you in the mouth. See if you can stop us."
So, to me, it's not about IF they will use him, it's more about will the Bills be good enough to generate enough opportunities. So, if your thoughts are right about 7TDs on the ground (assuming healthy all year) is correct, then I'd say the Bills are a 5-6 win team. But if they are a solid team this year (10 wins, play good D, get good turnovers, etc), I'd say Shady almost has to, by default get 11-12 ground TDs.
I know that sounds like a lot and it seems every time I say something and put a number on it, I catch a lot of number crunching feedback but, to me, this looks similar to how I've felt about Eddie Lacy when I said I thought his floor was 1000/10. The offenses are obviously different but what Shady lacks in Aaron Rodgers type offense, he gains in being a complete feature back for a HC that WILL run the ball.
cliffhuxtible
Footballguy
I'm hoping you are right. If Rex keeps him in the red zone, then I agree that 7 TD's is too low unless they completely stink. It will be interesting to see McCoy in a more traditional, run-heavy scheme.
Shutout
Footballguy
looks like "not so anonymous" article writer should have been on this one.
To say that Shady McCoy wouldn't be effective in a power spread offense is beyond bonkers. Do people forget the way he can break a defender's angles (and ankles) when he is coming at you and shifts? Who is the guy that said you can't catch catch what you can't touch? You put Shady in an offense with 3 yard-wide lanes and a 5 yard cushion with o-lineman like Dallas has and you're gonna see a lot of him on SportsCenter. Kind of reminds me of the Emmitt Vs. Barry talk back in the day.
I only play fantasy. I don't play in the NFL. But as was mentioned of the anonymous exec in the article, a lot of how you gauge great NFL talent is by how much you "fear/respect/plan" for them and I know from a fantasy perspective, Shady can make you cry.
Murray has shown to be very good one time and a little here and there. He's a very good player. But he's like Eddie George or Frank Gore back in the day. You involve him enough, run him to death, yeah, he's gonna hurt you in fantasy. But Shady...when he's used (like he was up until last year), he's Barry Sanders (or Chris Johnson that ONE year). He's the guy you watch when you play against him because"you gotta know". He's the guy you look to see is on the field every snap and hold your breath every time the ball is snapped because you know he can rock your world. He's the guy you probably took some time during the week leading up to Sunday checking to see where the Eagles' opponents run D ranked because you were looking for a way to feel better about it.
We remember short-term memory stuff in fantasy so we are down on Shady right now. We forget it was literally just a year ago this time he was the fairly consensus #2 fantasy dynasty Rb. We forget what he did in the snow one game, how he committed heinous crime on national TV against the Bears that one night. We say they've lost something. Something is catching up to them. Well, whatever SHady has lost, 85% of the league never had.
I think, despite the poorer situation in Buffalo, Shady is going to make some people very good in ff this year. IF (so this IS dependent) the Bills are a good, competitive team this year, Shady will be an automatic top 7 RB in fantasy. Period.
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The Duff Man
Footballguy
I would not worry about Fred.
At some point his age will catch up to him, he was a noticeably less effective runner when he returned from injury last year.
At some point his age will catch up to him, he was a noticeably less effective runner when he returned from injury last year.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
I would worry about the lack of qb
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Oh LeSean. Couldn't go a month without being a moron?
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Oof.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Kwai Chang Caine
Footballguy
The one baby mama claimed that McCoy was possessed of the "Ol' Iron Inch" so...maybe...?
Gottabesweet
Footballguy
That's all they do all do long, they live on Instagram. You can see what picture's players like. Robert Woods, Chris Gragg, Duke Williams, Aaron Williams, Andre Reed are just a few of the Bills/former I follow and they just like and creep all day long. It's embarassing. When I read through the Incognito, Jonathan Martin texts, it's all they were doing was trying to get laid and from the sounds of it failing miserably.
