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Lesean McCoy? How concerned are we?

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40 minutes ago, ScottNorwood said:

We don't know enough yet to know what the situation will be with the accusations and lawsuit.  We just no there's a non-zero chance that he might be suspended for a significant portion of the season.  But that's not the only mark against him for fantasy:

  • Projected to be in a poor offense
  • Old
  • Has seen lot of usage over the years.  2nd in the league in carries last year
  • Might have to work with Josh Allen, whose specialty is the deep ball and not the short stuff that McCoy thrives on
  • Potential suspension

I don't think it's a stretch to put him outside the top 20 RBs if you're drafting today.  It's really doubtful that he's going to end up on my fantasy team.

First, Shady is on my DND list, again.

That said, he is there for the exact reasons you bullet pointed, *and* the non-zero chance of suspension.

And THAT said, Shady makes me eat crow for it every....single...year. And I hate his guts for it, because like a vampire who won’t die he keeps haunting me. Dude can put up monster numbers any given Sunday playing with the crappiest team. It’s remarkable. And some FFB manager will happily draft him either not knowing or caring about the risk and be obscenely rewarded for it. 

Not saying it’ll keep happening this year, but I certainly wouldn’t put money down betting against him.

:doh: 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy
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3 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

First, Shady is on my DND list, again.

That said, he is there for the exact reasons you bullet pointed, *and* the non-zero chance of suspension.

And THAT said, Shady makes me eat crow for it every....single...year. And I hate his guts for it, because like a vampire who won’t die he keeps haunting me. Dude can put up monster numbers any given Sunday playing with the crappiest team. It’s remarkable. And some FFB manager will happily draft him either not knowing or caring about the risk and be obscenely rewarded for it. 

Not saying it’ll keep happening this year, but I certainly wouldn’t put money down betting against him.

:doh: 

It won't happen this year because it's the first time I've owned him in a long time so he won't do anything of significance. You're welcome.

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8 minutes ago, gianmarco said:

It won't happen this year because it's the first time I've owned him in a long time so he won't do anything of significance. You're welcome.

:lol:  

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28 minutes ago, ScottNorwood said:

We don't know enough yet to know what the situation will be with the accusations and lawsuit.  We just no there's a non-zero chance that he might be suspended for a significant portion of the season.  But that's not the only mark against him for fantasy:

  • Projected to be in a poor offense
  • Old
  • Has seen lot of usage over the years.  2nd in the league in carries last year
  • Might have to work with Josh Allen, whose specialty is the deep ball and not the short stuff that McCoy thrives on
  • Potential suspension

I don't think it's a stretch to put him outside the top 20 RBs if you're drafting today.  It's really doubtful that he's going to end up on my fantasy team.

I outlined a zillion pages ago how RBs have fared with 300 touches in a season. The strength of the offense, the QB, age, etc. doesn't matter for bell cow backs . .  and there are fewer and fewer of them. As I look at the Bills roster, there isn't a high profile, early round RB draft pick that is lining up to take his job. IMO, the only reason to not want McCoy on a football basis (suspension not withstanding) is if you think he will get hurt.

Last year, it took 166 fantasy points in 0 PPR leagues to rank as the RB12. In the last 25 years, they were 39 RBs that were 30 or older that scored at least 166 fantasy points in a season. McCoy has averaged 20 touches a game in Buffalo. Based on volume alone, even at 30 and on what appears to be a putrid offense, he should still get the ball plenty to be a viable fantasy back. In his 3 seasons in BUF, for backs that have played at least 10 games over those three season, McCoy ranked as the RB9. The Bills offense really wasn't that great across those years and he still did fine based on his heavy workload.

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Just now, Anarchy99 said:

I outlined a zillion pages ago how RBs have fared with 300 touches in a season. The strength of the offense, the QB, age, etc. doesn't matter for bell cow backs . .  and there are fewer and fewer of them. As I look at the Bills roster, there isn't a high profile, early round RB draft pick that is lining up to take his job. IMO, the only reason to not want McCoy on a football basis (suspension not withstanding) is if you think he will get hurt.

Last year, it took 166 fantasy points in 0 PPR leagues to rank as the RB12. In the last 25 years, they were 39 RBs that were 30 or older that scored at least 166 fantasy points in a season. McCoy has averaged 20 touches a game in Buffalo. Based on volume alone, even at 30 and on what appears to be a putrid offense, he should still get the ball plenty to be a viable fantasy back. In his 3 seasons in BUF, for backs that have played at least 10 games over those three season, McCoy ranked as the RB9. The Bills offense really wasn't that great across those years and he still did fine based on his heavy workload.

He’s the only RB i’ve ever seen who’s so consistently defied the odds & logic.

It’s pretty remarkable. 

One of these years he’s gonna fall off a cliff.

but it’s been predicted pretty much every year for the last several & he keeps on chugging along. 

 

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35 minutes ago, ScottNorwood said:

We don't know enough yet to know what the situation will be with the accusations and lawsuit.  We just no there's a non-zero chance that he might be suspended for a significant portion of the season.  But that's not the only mark against him for fantasy:

  • Projected to be in a poor offense
  • Old
  • Has seen lot of usage over the years.  2nd in the league in carries last year
  • Might have to work with Josh Allen, whose specialty is the deep ball and not the short stuff that McCoy thrives on
  • Potential suspension

I don't think it's a stretch to put him outside the top 20 RBs if you're drafting today.  It's really doubtful that he's going to end up on my fantasy team.

Can't disagree with any of that.  These things are also true:

Since his rookie year, he has had only two of eight seasons where he had less than 1400 all purpose yards.

Those two seasons he was held to 12 games.  In a nine year career as a bell cow back, he has only missed a total of eleven games.  That's 11 out of 144 or 7.6%  By comparison, David Johnson has lost 15 out of 48 games (31.2%)..  

He has caught 40 more balls in 7 of the 9 years.  One of the remaining two was also one of the 12 game seasons.

He has sustained this high end performance through multiple coordinators, coaches, and franchises and with QBs with all different caliber of talent.  

He is a bell cow back used on every down and has had a prominent role in the passing game.

 

I agree that he may have fallen due to age and usage (currently I am not concerned about a possible suspension enough to have it effect his value).

One thing McCoy has is opportunity.  Many other RBs ranked highly would dream of getting the touches he will get as long as he is on the field, and as long as he is getting opportunity, he will continue to be fantasy start-worthy.  Therefore, to me, the season falls into two possible outcomes.  Either he gets injured and loses significant games/opportunities, or he does not and his floor is about RB 20 and his ceiling is probably around RB8.

So it comes down to the probability of injury.  

This could be the year that the wheels fall off... the high usage in 2017 certainly supports that... but I have learned not to bet against McCoy.

The consensus rankings on this page have him at RB21 for redraft ppr and as the 39th player overall for ppr redraft.  If I can get McCoy for pick 39, the 3rd pick in the fourth round of a 12 team ppr draft, I would not hesitate.  (No way would I grab any of the WR ranked around that slot (D Thomas, Jarvis Landry, Golden Tate, Allen Robinson) ahead of McCoy.  Every one of them has at least as many warts as those you listed for McCoy, above.  Also, after the top ten or so WR there are 30-40 that are in plateau of value.  The WR2 and WR3 talent pool is so deep this year).

As I mentioned in another thread, in th first three rounds of a PPR draft, I want a top ten WR, a top 3 TE, and at least a top 15 RB.  If I can get those three and then add McCoy in the 4th?  I'd be pretty darn happy.  

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20 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

To double back on what I posted pages ago, the child abuse allegations lose a lot of luster given the fact that she never mentioned them in multiple incidents involving the police and they only surfaced after they had broken up. As far as we know, any incidents of abuse of his child are otherwise unreported or undocumented by an impartial party (the police, a teacher, a doctor, a counselor, a coach, etc.). We don't know if there are photos or videos of the alleged incidents, but not reporting anything at the time it happened generally carries a lot less impact than if if was fully pursued at the time it allegedly happened.

To clarify, I have no idea what did or didn't happen, but if she truly were a concerned child advocate and pet enthusiast, one would have expected her to have reported these incidents if they were so troubling to her. Instead, she brings these issues up in a civil suit looking for monetary compensation for pain, suffering, and damages. The other thing with regard to the child abuse allegations is McCoy's child doesn't live with him and he only has had limited time with him. If there were any serious instances of abuse, there would most likely be evidence of such treatment when the child went back to mom's house. The child's mother has indicated that she has not seen evidence of child abuse.

The other thing I find curious in the GF's civil suit is she indicates McCoy rented her jewelry that was stolen, yet she demands information on the insurance company to file an insurance claim to recoup $133,000. Correct me if I am wrong, but if the jewelry was insured, wouldn't the policy be from the jewelers and not McCoy? It seems backwards that McCoy could rent the items and collect on them when he didn't own them and the jewelers did.

This is mainly what I was referencing with the back and forth.  We don't know if she filed reports of abuse.  What you keep saying is that she hasn't mentioned child abuse when the police come to her home the 4 times.  In you last post I think you finally understood that the police is not who you call for child abuse neither Lowes for pizza.  

It seems you have an ax to grind with the lady even though you keep saying you feel bad she was beat up.  I just prefer sticking to facts and no one knows if there have been previous reports of child abuse.  

To summarize, because police don't see signs of abuse and because she didn't mention child abuse to them doesn't mean the child abuse allegations were not reported to the proper authorities, which is child protective services.

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32 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

I outlined a zillion pages ago how RBs have fared with 300 touches in a season. The strength of the offense, the QB, age, etc. doesn't matter for bell cow backs . .  and there are fewer and fewer of them. As I look at the Bills roster, there isn't a high profile, early round RB draft pick that is lining up to take his job. IMO, the only reason to not want McCoy on a football basis (suspension not withstanding) is if you think he will get hurt.

Last year, it took 166 fantasy points in 0 PPR leagues to rank as the RB12. In the last 25 years, they were 39 RBs that were 30 or older that scored at least 166 fantasy points in a season. McCoy has averaged 20 touches a game in Buffalo. Based on volume alone, even at 30 and on what appears to be a putrid offense, he should still get the ball plenty to be a viable fantasy back. In his 3 seasons in BUF, for backs that have played at least 10 games over those three season, McCoy ranked as the RB9. The Bills offense really wasn't that great across those years and he still did fine based on his heavy workload.

okay so in a 12 team redraft where are u taking him?  for me he would have to fall to late 5th early 6th even then its dicey

Edited by pantherclub

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6 minutes ago, Brisco54 said:

  

This could be the year that the wheels fall off... the high usage in 2017 certainly supports that... but I have learned not to bet against McCoy.

 

Full disclosure, in my main league, a 12 team .5 ppr dynasty league, I trade for McCoy at the end of the 2014 season when I saw his market drop.

I then tried to repeatedly trade him during the 2015 season and off season, but no one would pay anything close to market price because of his age.

Despite my best efforts he was on my team in 2016 and 2017 and led my franchise to back to back championships, something never down before in this very competitive decades old league.

I look back on some of the trade offers I made involving McCoy and think, man, was I lucky that the other owner was as big an idiot as I was.

Go back and look at consensus rankings and you will see that the fantasy world (me included) have given up on this guy more than once only to be proven wrong.

At this point, I would rather be riding with him on my team when the wheels fall off then take the risk of giving up on him and getting burned again.

Here is to McCoy leading my team to a threepeat!

[Public service announcement - I am now guilty of doing just about everything possible to jinx my primary dynasty team.  Those who believe in Karma should be avoiding the following players:  McCoy, Kamara, Ingram, Alex Collins, Burkhead, CJA, DHop, Keenan Allen, Watkins, A. Cooper, Crowder, Gronk, and belatedly, Hunter Henry & Dez.)

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1 minute ago, pantherclub said:

okay so in a 12 team redraft where are u taking him?  for me he would have to fall to late 5th early 6th 

I took him in the late second in the only league I own him in so far but that was before the off field stuff took on a life of its own. It really depends who is available and what the league scoring is. In the league I just mentioned, people are old school and still crazy gaga about gobbling up running backs. In other leagues with all positions getting drafted across all rounds, I wouldn't have to consider him that early.

As for your consideration, you tell me . . . where would you be willing to take a guy that more than likely will be a low end RB1, maybe a high end RB2 if he misses a couple of games? I doubt he would fall to the 5th or 6th . . . but I doubt there will be a 300 touch RB or a back not in a split backfield available then in the first place. If you are discounting him based on a possible suspension, I get that, but I think enough time has passed since the incident that McCoy is climbing up drafts. I would guess in most drafts he will go late third or early fourth. His ADP is already back up to RB16 and 34th overall. The time to get him cheap was after the news broke and people totally were avoiding him.

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10 minutes ago, pantherclub said:

okay so in a 12 team redraft where are u taking him?  for me he would have to fall to late 5th early 6th even then its dicey

I know you are not asking me, but you will see that I would take him right about where he is currently ranked in the consensus, start of the 4th round.

If you are waiting till the 5th round, it means that you would take players like Derrick Henry, Lamar Miller, Kenyon Drake, Jay Ajayi and the WR I listed above before McCoy.

All of these players have at least as many warts, and the majority have never shown the ability to have an elite fantasy season even once.

Using the 166 point threshold from Anarchy, if you think McCoy fades to just 80% of his 2017 performance, that is still 185 points in ppr. or about RB18 on the year.  One other thing is that he is comparatively steady in his performance.  He only had 3 games last year with less than 10 ppr points and 6 games with over 20 ppr points.

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1 minute ago, Brisco54 said:

I know you are not asking me, but you will see that I would take him right about where he is currently ranked in the consensus, start of the 4th round.

If you are waiting till the 5th round, it means that you would take players like Derrick Henry, Lamar Miller, Kenyon Drake, Jay Ajayi and the WR I listed above before McCoy.

All of these players have at least as many warts, and the majority have never shown the ability to have an elite fantasy season even once.

Using the 166 point threshold from Anarchy, if you think McCoy fades to just 80% of his 2017 performance, that is still 185 points in ppr. or about RB18 on the year.  One other thing is that he is comparatively steady in his performance.  He only had 3 games last year with less than 10 ppr points and 6 games with over 20 ppr points.

I think you are comparing different scoring systems, so I will better clarify. Using your 80% baseline for a performance drop off:

PPR LEAGUES
McCoy scored 266 points last year and ranked 7th.
At 80%, that would have scored 213 points and would have ranked 12th.

IN 0 PPR LEAGUES
McCoy scored 207 points and ranked 7th.
At 80%, that would have scored 166 points and ranked 12th.

Either way, if McCoy saw his production drop by 20%, he probably would still be a low end RB1 in 2018.

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5 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

I think you are comparing different scoring systems, so I will better clarify. Using your 80% baseline for a performance drop off:

PPR LEAGUES
McCoy scored 266 points last year and ranked 7th.
At 80%, that would have scored 213 points and would have ranked 12th.

IN 0 PPR LEAGUES
McCoy scored 207 points and ranked 7th.
At 80%, that would have scored 166 points and ranked 12th.

Either way, if McCoy saw his production drop by 20%, he probably would still be a low end RB1 in 2018.

Isn't it surprising that McCoy, a known pass catching RB, finished in the same slot for non-ppr (RB7)  

He also finished in 7th place for total receptions.

One interesting point for positive regression... despite finishing in the #4 in rush yards and #7 in receptions, he finished tied for #16 and #14 for rushing and receiving TDs respectively.  Its not like he is pulled at the goal line for another back.

Josh Allen's short game inaccuracy, viewed as a negative earlier, may have a small benefit that they keep the ball on the ground at the goal line rather than throw it to one of the ten (wow ten?) players that caught TD passes last year for the Bills.

 

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at the end of the day, it's like a lot of other players, it all depends when he falls in draft and it's your turn to draft and although you don't want him, it's late enough in the draft that you are telling yourself "damn...I don't want that guy but he's still here this late in the draft, I can't pass on him..."

It happened to me last year, I had McCoy in my line up because he was still here when it came back to me for my pick and I didn't want him but tough to pass on the guy at that stage in the draft.

Assuming no suspension, if I get McCoy in the third or 4th round, tough to pass on him then.....

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Im done drafting, so I will post this now. 

IMO McCoy is one of very few bell cows left in the NFL.  He catches at least 4 balls a game. He gets goal line carries.  He is the lead back. 

I took him as my #2 back (and sometimes #1 back if I went WR heavy) without hesitation. 

This is going to be an offensive explosion year IMO.  I think with Shady's running style he is going to benefit from some of the rule changes.

ETA I have been taking him in the 3rd-4th.  I think his value could be 2nd.   

Edited by Hairy Snowman

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45 minutes ago, Hairy Snowman said:

This is going to be an offensive explosion year IMO.  

Tell us about how the Buffalo QBs, OL, and WRs will enable said explosion. 

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39 minutes ago, JetMaxx said:

Tell us about how the Buffalo QBs, OL, and WRs will enable said explosion. 

If I was going to make the argument for Buffalo: Josh Allen is a surprisingly elusive QB. Some of the Bills best WRs are injured and aren't playing with the team yet. The Bills will be coming from behind a lot.  

But I agree that the O Line appears to be a real issue.  

ETA My comment was in regards to the league in general though, not the Bills specifically.  I think changes in the rules is going to result in an offensice explosion in the league overall. 

 

Edited by Hairy Snowman

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10 hours ago, Hairy Snowman said:

 Josh Allen is a surprisingly elusive QB.

 

and he's unsurprisingly inaccurate.

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3 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

and he's unsurprisingly inaccurate.

If there are two things we know in fantasy football it is that winning football doesn't necessarily equate to fantasy gold and by week 15, most of us didn't know half as much as we thought.

I am not saying Buffalo is going to be an offensive juggernaut. Shoot, I think they will probably be among the 10 worst offenses in the league this year. But I also think scoring will be significantly up overall this year. And that Josh Allen is better than advertised (at least from what I have seen so far). So they may be the worst and still significantly more productive.   

If Allen can continue to show the ability to buy himself an extra second or two like he has in the preseason, he will provide a significant amount of "bonus" time for receivers to get open. It should help.  If he scrambles for 10 yards a couple times a game for a couple first downs, it should help. If he can just avoid some of the big hits and know when to throw the ball away, it would be a big improvement. 

Again, we are talking about a rookie quarterback on a relatively poor offense.  But IMO most people are focusing more on what Allen's perceived weaknesses are and maybe not enough on how his strengths play in this league. He has a very good skill set overall for a rookie qb IMO.     

Edited by Hairy Snowman
grammar

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Where has McCoy been going in some of your drafts?  I have the 2nd pick in a 12 team ppr league and I have a feeling he'll be there for me for my 3rd pick.  If he's there that may be too much value to pass up.  Any more on the possible suspension?

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7 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

and he's unsurprisingly inaccurate.

Are you sure about that?

 

The theory: Completion percentage is a good number, but it doesn’t take into account when a quarterback has two receivers with great hands, or whether his three key guys have, say, 30 drops in a season. Adjusted completion percentage is better because it accounts for drops. But ball-location (hitting the receiver in stride with an easily catchable ball) is interesting because in today’s NFL, so many throws are short passes, and how many yards a receiver makes after the catch often depends on the throw. Did the quarterback lead him properly? For the last two years, PFF has charted the ball location of every NFL throw, and also the throws of the current rookie QB crop, made.

The top three passers last year in ball-location:

Drew Brees 70.4 percent,

Tom Brady 65.8 percent,

Jimmy Garoppolo 61.9 percent.

Baker Mayfield led the draft prospects in 2017 with a ball-location accuracy of 64.9 percent. Through the fist half of the preseason, the best man of the five first-rounders in ball location is Sam Darnold of the Jets. The numbers:

Sam Darnold, Jets, 84.6 percent.

Josh Allen, Bills, 70.0 percent.

Baker Mayfield, Browns, 69.0 percent.

Josh Rosen, Cards, 58.3 percent.

Lamar Jackson, 36.0 percent.

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19 minutes ago, theToes said:

Where has McCoy been going in some of your drafts?  I have the 2nd pick in a 12 team ppr league and I have a feeling he'll be there for me for my 3rd pick.  If he's there that may be too much value to pass up.  Any more on the possible suspension?

In a draft last weekend he went at the 4-5 turn, at RB21. I'd be shocked if he wasn't there 26th overall. TY Hilton went at that pick in that draft. 

I think people are mostly still waiting for another shoe to drop on McCoy, so i think he'll continue to be a solid value. 

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Even if you give him sub 4ypc and low TD totals he's still somehow super valuable in PPR. If I don't draft him in the 2nd/3rd round in my upcoming drafts it will be because I'm ignoring my projections.

There's literal no way around the volume, there's no way around the targets. 

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On 8/14/2018 at 6:25 PM, pantherclub said:

We are 3ish weeks away from the start of the season.  Raise your hand if you really think Goddell is going to let LM play if the NFL/police investigation isnt complete yet? 

Of course he will.  Yet another example of favoring speculation over facts if you think otherwise.

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What pick do you have?  I've done some mocks and the first 3 picks usually look something like this

Bell

Thomas/Adams/Green

McCoy

I think I like that start.

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6 minutes ago, theToes said:

What pick do you have?  I've done some mocks and the first 3 picks usually look something like this

Bell

Thomas/Adams/Green

McCoy

I think I like that start.

I have pick 10

  Start rb/wr and hope he slides back to me in the third

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2 minutes ago, Twenty-Four Eighty-Four said:

Where did McCoy end up?

I grabbed him @ 3.7, I really hesitated as I already had 2 RB's in Gordon and Freeman. But this is dual flex and I went a little hard on rnd 10+ WR's. Not my usual way of constructing a team, but I went with it, if McCoy hits then WOW!

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5 hours ago, theToes said:

Where has McCoy been going in some of your drafts?  I have the 2nd pick in a 12 team ppr league and I have a feeling he'll be there for me for my 3rd pick.  If he's there that may be too much value to pass up.  Any more on the possible suspension?

He went 4.03 in a high stakes draft I did on 8/5.  I'm doing another high stakes draft tonight, I'll let you know where he goes.

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5 hours ago, GroveDiesel said:

Are you sure about that?

 

 

 

Probably compiled by a guy who sees a back shoulder throw and thinks it’s a poorly located pass.  And hitting a receiver in stride against a zone in the NFL can lead to terminal separation of his head from his body, but this guy defines it as a great throw.

 

None of those other 4 can carry Mayfield’s jock in terms of accuracy.  Those numbers are laughable.

 

.

Edited by Bronco Billy

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13 minutes ago, candian fantasy guy said:

I grabbed him @ 3.7, I really hesitated as I already had 2 RB's in Gordon and Freeman. But this is dual flex and I went a little hard on rnd 10+ WR's. Not my usual way of constructing a team, but I went with it, if McCoy hits then WOW!

Even in a regular flex, I love taking RBs in 3 out of 4 rounds to start. You have insurance if one gets injured or busts, or if they're all good then you have a great start each week! Good for you.

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48 minutes ago, Twenty-Four Eighty-Four said:

That'd be great. Thanks.

LeSean McCoy just went 3.07 (wasn't me)

I drew the 1.03, took Zeke.  We're now in round 7. 

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On 7/12/2018 at 3:21 PM, Bossman said:

I assume most of you have watched this ... but if not, it's a "must see"

Date & Marrige Chart

 

This should be mandatory viewing for all NFL rookies at their rookie orientation.

 

 

On 7/12/2018 at 3:42 PM, irish eyes said:

That is one of the funniest damn things I've ever seen LOL

 

 

so business as usual for McCoy? People are drafting their teams and this is such a cloud over him. 

Such a fine line here between him being a great value ... or a wasted pick.

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11 hours ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

Probably compiled by a guy who sees a back shoulder throw and thinks it’s a poorly located pass.  And hitting a receiver in stride against a zone in the NFL can lead to terminal separation of his head from his body, but this guy defines it as a great throw.

 

None of those other 4 can carry Mayfield’s jock in terms of accuracy.  Those numbers are laughable.

 

.

It's also based on a handful of throws in two preseason games. Even in it's best light, it's fairly meaningless.

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