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Dynasty & Redraft: WR Amari Cooper, Cowboys

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5 minutes ago, DropKick said:

Problem with floors (the worst possible outcome) and ceilings (the best) is that neither is the most likely, or expected outcome.

I agree--but with that being said--we do need to somewhat establish what each of our "baseline" (both upside and downside)  projections are for each player to create our positional tiers.   I just find when I factor in injuries--seems like I pretty much always factor them mainly into the downside category as opposed to leveling out both downside and upside projections for a particular player.   I had never really realized that I had done that before reading the back and forth on this thread. 

Edited by jvdesigns2002

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I feel confident that jordy will be heathy this year

I feel confident that cooper will take a step forward this year.

Which is more likely?

I feel confident that jordy will at least perforn similar to the average of his last 4 seasons (1210 yards and 11 tds), if not repeat his last season's numbers (over 1500 yards and 13 tds).

I feel confident that cooper will not only join the group of the best receivers in the nfl this year, but be better than all but a couple.of them.  

Which is more likely? 

I would take the jordy side of both bets, because they both have risk.  I think some of you are assuming cooper makes an enormous and rare leap forward, like it's a given that he will do that.  

 

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I think 6/80 per game is low hurdle for Amari Cooper, and I'm willing to bet 10 TDs is too. 

#5 WR chasing after Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham, Dez Bryant, and Julio Jones. ... That said, I think we are nearing a time where Tier 1 WR bucket will be 20 deep.

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5 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

I feel confident that jordy will be heathy this year

I feel confident that cooper will take a step forward this year.

Which is more likely?

I feel confident that jordy will at least perforn similar to the average of his last 4 seasons (1210 yards and 11 tds), if not repeat his last season's numbers (over 1500 yards and 13 tds).

I feel confident that cooper will not only join the group of the best receivers in the nfl this year, but be better than all but a couple.of them.  

Which is more likely? 

I would take the jordy side of both bets, because they both have risk.  I think some of you are assuming cooper makes an enormous and rare leap forward, like it's a given that he will do that.  

 

Jordys rapport with Rodgers is the trump card in his favor. Those guys can be magical.

I believe in coopers talent and its just  a matter of time IMO until he makes that jump.

 

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7 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

I feel confident that jordy will be heathy this year

I feel confident that cooper will take a step forward this year.

Which is more likely?

I feel confident that jordy will at least perforn similar to the average of his last 4 seasons (1210 yards and 11 tds), if not repeat his last season's numbers (over 1500 yards and 13 tds).

I feel confident that cooper will not only join the group of the best receivers in the nfl this year, but be better than all but a couple.of them.  

Which is more likely? 

I would take the jordy side of both bets, because they both have risk.  I think some of you are assuming cooper makes an enormous and rare leap forward, like it's a given that he will do that.  

 

He's flashed skills that make me think he's on a trajectory to be one of the best ever. Hyperbole, maybe, but swing for the fences is the main attraction for this hobby of mine.

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10 hours ago, Ilov80s said:

I see Cooks and Cooper as very similar players in terms of what they could do this year. The difference is Cooks has done it before and has a much better offense. 

Cooper's rookie season was twice as good as Cooks' rookie season from a yards/TD perspective.  Last season, in Cooks' second year, he had merely 60 more yards and 3 more TDs than Cooper's rookie season.  Not sure I'm following the logic that 'Cooks has done it before'. Cooks progressed (as expected) and barely edged out the rookie Cooper.

I haven't done my rankings yet so I'm not sure where I'd rank Cooper at the moment but I do know that 1,000+ yards and 6 TDs is a FANTASTIC rookie season for a WR.  I also think having zero targets within the 10 yard line is probably more of an anomaly than the norm moving forward.  Again, it was his rookie season and by historical comparisons, a very good rookie season.  Carr, imo, will likely be one of the better QBs for the next 12 years or so.  I'd put my money on Cooper progressing this year.  Just glancing at the top WRs, I'd peg him in that 12-16 range and wouldn't at all be shocked if he put up a top 5 season.  Is it really hard to imagine him getting 300 more yards and a few more TDs?  I don't think so.  If he does, that puts him close to 1,400 yards and 10 TDs.

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3 hours ago, TripItUp said:

Coming off Injury doesn't mean you don't have more upside.  Both Alshon and Jordy have had seasons far better than Amari's rookie season, if anything that's proven superior upside.

Do you realize that both Alshon and Jordy had less than 400 yards in their rookie years? Jordy didn't hit 1,000 yards until his 4th season.  In fact, he never cracked 600 until that 4th season where he went nuts (1200/15)  Alshon had a fantastic 2nd year where he increased his production by nearly 400% putting up over 1,400 yards. 

Your post above means nothing.  It's not really a fair or relevant comparison pitting a rookie season against non-rookie seasons.  I would certainly expect 2 very good WRs who have more years in the league to outperform a rookie.  It doesn't even make sense to use that comparison.

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11 hours ago, Ilov80s said:

I see Cooks and Cooper as very similar players in terms of what they could do this year. The difference is Cooks has done it before and has a much better offense. 

:no:

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3 minutes ago, Rhythmdoctor said:

Do you realize that both Alshon and Jordy had less than 400 yards in their rookie years?

 

I do realize that, not sure why it is relevant.

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4 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

I do realize that, not sure why it is relevant.

It's apples to apples.  Your comparison was not.

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4 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

I do realize that, not sure why it is relevant.

Because people are comparing Jordy's best season with Cooper's only season.

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1 hour ago, jvdesigns2002 said:

I agree--but with that being said--we do need to somewhat establish what each of our "baseline" (both upside and downside)  projections are for each player to create our positional tiers.   I just find when I factor in injuries--seems like I pretty much always factor them mainly into the downside category as opposed to leveling out both downside and upside projections for a particular player.   I had never really realized that I had done that before reading the back and forth on this thread. 

A purist would argue that you should ignore injury for the "ceiling" since its their best possible season.  You're using a more practical range of low to high projections and I agree that health is a factor.

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9 minutes ago, DropKick said:

A purist would argue that you should ignore injury for the "ceiling" since its their best possible season. 

correct, as long as it is possible to be fully healthy...in the case of Jordy and Jefferey, it is possible.

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23 minutes ago, Toomuchnv said:

:no:

Hey I'm just as wrong as everyone else. This might be one I whiff on.

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1 hour ago, Mister CIA said:

I think 6/80 per game is low hurdle for Amari Cooper, and I'm willing to bet 10 TDs is too. 

 

96 receptions and 10 TDs is a "low hurdle"?

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3 hours ago, bostonfred said:

I feel confident that jordy will be heathy this year

I feel confident that cooper will take a step forward this year.

Which is more likely?

I feel confident that jordy will at least perforn similar to the average of his last 4 seasons (1210 yards and 11 tds), if not repeat his last season's numbers (over 1500 yards and 13 tds).

I feel confident that cooper will not only join the group of the best receivers in the nfl this year, but be better than all but a couple.of them.  

Which is more likely? 

I would take the jordy side of both bets, because they both have risk.  I think some of you are assuming cooper makes an enormous and rare leap forward, like it's a given that he will do that.  

 

I agree with you that Jordy has a more attainable ceiling.  I think you're expecting a lot if you think he has a good chance of picking up right where he left off in 2014 though.  It was already a career year even discounting the injury that followed.  History is not exactly on the side of 31 year old WRs coming off of major injuries repeating their career years.

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1 hour ago, Ilov80s said:

Hey I'm just as wrong as everyone else. This might be one I whiff on.

Not saying you are wrong about Cooks vs Cooper...however I do believe you are underestimating the Raiders offense.....

this is the first time in ages that the Raiders have all the same coaches, coordinators, offensive personnel, etc...

Last season, Carr was hurt during the offseason and missed the OTA's...this season, Carr and Cooper have participated in everything and are even roommates at training camp (their choice).

Last season, an injury held Cooper's stats down near the end of the season...

If he can stay relatively healthy i believe Cooper has the goods to be an elite level wr on a Raiders team that is on the rise offensively...

Would you rather have Cooper on an offense that is progressively getting better, or Cooks on an offense that is relying on a 37 year old Drew Brees(sooner rather than later his QB play will drop off...see Peyton Manning)

Edited by Toomuchnv

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NFL.com's Ian Rapoport reports Amari Cooper played through plantar fasciitis in his foot "most" of his rookie year.

Per Rapsheet, Cooper could barely watch his rookie game tape because he "(didn't) recognize himself." Rapsheet says Cooper is now "back and healthy and doing ridiculous things." GM Reggie McKenzie said the team almost had to shut Cooper down last year. The No. 4 overall pick of 2015's draft clearly has the toughness to hang in the big leagues.

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Hard not to get excited after these preseason highlights.  Cooper looks much more comfortable and more importantly explosive.

Link Highlights from Cleveland game.

Link TD catch against Oak.  

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On August 4, 2016 at 4:22 PM, Ilov80s said:

Maybe I am confused. Cooks scoring slightly fewer points than what? Cooper? Cooks pretty significantly outscored Cooper last year. 

Yeah: and has a slightly better QB,  and more of a proven track record and didn't have a foot injury that sometimes haunts players for years.  

I think the most apt comparison to Cooper is S.Watkins - both have massive upside, both had foot injuries and both are expected to have improvements from last year to this.

watkins can regularly be had in the early-to-mid 3rd.  Cooper in the early 2nd.

i think Watkins is priced fairly given the unknowns and variables. For some reason Cooper is being drafted as though there weren't any and his ascension is a given.

it may be - but it's not without similar risk to Watkins, in my opinion. 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy
Typos - I haz them

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6 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Yeah: and has a slightly better QB,  and more of a proven track record and didn't have a foot injury that sometimes haunts players for years.  

I think the most apt comparison to Cooper is S.Watkins - both have massive upside, both had foot injuries and both are expected to have improvements from last year to this.

watkins can regularly be had in the early-to-mid 3rd.  Cooper in the early 2nd.

i think Watkins is priced fairly given the unknowns and variables. For some reason Cooper is being drafted as though there weren't any and his ascension is a given.

it may be - but it's not without similar risk to Watkins, in my opinion. 

With Sammy we have seen elite play. In standard, Sammy was WR7 last year in ppg. 

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3 hours ago, Ilov80s said:

With Sammy we have seen elite play. In standard, Sammy was WR7 last year in ppg. 

Yes, but I think it's a good conparison - Watkins could have been better if not for the foot injury. AC could have been better if not for the foot injury.

And yet Watkins has gone almost a full round later than Cooper in every mock and in my real drafts.

Looking at it another way, if I'm drafting near the turn, Cooper falls to me in the early 3rd, and I have to choose between Watkins & Cooper, I'm honestly not sure who I would take. 

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6 minutes ago, Insein said:

Got the Carr Cooper Combo this year. Giddy up.

That could be money. 

If the Raiders improve in the run game and on defense as they've said they want to, it could be a long season for you. 

Will be interesting to see one way or another.

So you drafted Carr as your starting QB?  

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1 hour ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

That could be money. 

If the Raiders improve in the run game and on defense as they've said they want to, it could be a long season for you. 

Will be interesting to see one way or another.

So you drafted Carr as your starting QB?  

Well I got Carr and Dalton in the 13th and 14th rounds. So I imagine I'll be Playing the matchups each week.

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25 minutes ago, Insein said:

Well I got Carr and Dalton in the 13th and 14th rounds. So I imagine I'll be Playing the matchups each week.

A bit rougher than I'd prefer, but it can definitely be a winning strategy. 

The longer I play this game, the more I enjoy having a "plug and play" stud. I don't want to wait past Rivers for my QB1. Bortles is a close "fall-back" plan if I'm aiming Rivers and miss...beyond that if I've got two "play the matchups" guys, it drives me nutty every week when I invariably start the wrong guy. lol   

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Just now, Hot Sauce Guy said:

A bit rougher than I'd prefer, but it can definitely be a winning strategy. 

The longer I play this game, the more I enjoy having a "plug and play" stud. I don't want to wait past Rivers for my QB1. Bortles is a close "fall-back" plan if I'm aiming Rivers and miss...beyond that if I've got two "play the matchups" guys, it drives me nutty every week when I invariably start the wrong guy. lol   

I know what you mean but QB fall off doesn't seem that drastic anymore till you get to the Bottom tier and even then you might get a nice spot start. I prefer my studs to be at WR and RB. So I'll take as many shots as I can to hit on 2 or 3 of those guys.

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2 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Yes, but I think it's a good conparison - Watkins could have been better if not for the foot injury. AC could have been better if not for the foot injury.

And yet Watkins has gone almost a full round later than Cooper in every mock and in my real drafts.

Looking at it another way, if I'm drafting near the turn, Cooper falls to me in the early 3rd, and I have to choose between Watkins & Cooper, I'm honestly not sure who I would take. 

I take Watkins 100/100 times.

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1 minute ago, Ilov80s said:

I take Watkins 100/100 times.

I drafted him 3.04 in my IDP PPR league last Saturday. Was not at all disappointed.  ETA: Cooper went 2.04, so it wasn't a choice. 

 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy

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Just now, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I drafted him 3.04 in my IDP PPR league last Saturday. Was not at all disappointed.  ETA: Cooper went 2.04, so it wasn't a choice. 

 

Almost exactly what happened in my non PPR draft last night. Was shocked to see Cooper going so early but the guy just LOVES him. 

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Just now, Ilov80s said:

Almost exactly what happened in my non PPR draft last night. Was shocked to see Cooper going so early but the guy just LOVES him. 

I think people are paying for Cooper's ceiling.  But then again, if you want him and you're drafting at the end of the round, you have to take him because he won't make it back. 

I prefer to let the draft come to me and take who I perceive as the most valuable player rather than reaching for a favorite.  Cooper went before Evans, Cooks, Jeffery, Marshall, Watkins, K.Allen and Jordy Nelson in that league.  

Again, if you want the player and he won't make it back, take the player - I won't fault anyone for that.

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9 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

A bit rougher than I'd prefer, but it can definitely be a winning strategy. 

The longer I play this game, the more I enjoy having a "plug and play" stud. I don't want to wait past Rivers for my QB1. Bortles is a close "fall-back" plan if I'm aiming Rivers and miss...beyond that if I've got two "play the matchups" guys, it drives me nutty every week when I invariably start the wrong guy. lol   

Rivers scares me as a plug-and-play option.  The OL is shaky and he showed last year that if one of his primary WRs misses time, his game can really fall apart.

If I was looking at a 1QB strategy, I'd much rather have Bortles.

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5 minutes ago, Arodin said:

Rivers scares me as a plug-and-play option.  The OL is shaky and he showed last year that if one of his primary WRs misses time, his game can really fall apart.

If I was looking at a 1QB strategy, I'd much rather have Bortles.

I think

im on board with that. Plus age and upside. 

I was basing

my earlier statement was based more on my preseason rankings - at that time I thought JAX would have a better D than I've seen, reducing Bortles #s.

drafting Monday I probably flip flop them. 

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On 8/29/2016 at 11:09 AM, Insein said:

Got the Carr Cooper Combo this year. Giddy up.

 

 

 I ended up with this combo in 2 of my 4 leagues. Actually traded before week 1 to get Cooper in one league.

 He is quietly putting up solid numbers, though obviously week 1 was a big portion of that.

 I do have my concerns though, as he needs to pick up the pace a bit. I have actually done OK because of the team I drafted around him, but the point is these aren't quite what I was expecting number wise.

 I haven't seen all of every game, and I know he had one long TD called back due to him "questionably" stepping out of bounds. I did hear someone say offhand that he may have had another TD called back too, but I haven't been able to verify that.

 His @BALTIMORE matchup today is not a dream scenario by any stretch, and I don't often like West Coast teams coming east and playing early.

 I'd like to hear someone's thoughts that has been watching every game...any Raiders homers here that cares to pipe up? The running game seems "scattershot" at best, and it seems like a carousel that I am happy I avoided, even though L. Murray has been sufficient thus far.

 But enough is enough, Cooper needs to snag a long TD or two.  Today would be a good day to fire it up~!    :drive:

 

 

 TZM

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6 hours ago, TZMarkie said:

 

 

 I ended up with this combo in 2 of my 4 leagues. Actually traded before week 1 to get Cooper in one league.

 He is quietly putting up solid numbers, though obviously week 1 was a big portion of that.

 I do have my concerns though, as he needs to pick up the pace a bit. I have actually done OK because of the team I drafted around him, but the point is these aren't quite what I was expecting number wise.

 I haven't seen all of every game, and I know he had one long TD called back due to him "questionably" stepping out of bounds. I did hear someone say offhand that he may have had another TD called back too, but I haven't been able to verify that.

 His @BALTIMORE matchup today is not a dream scenario by any stretch, and I don't often like West Coast teams coming east and playing early.

 I'd like to hear someone's thoughts that has been watching every game...any Raiders homers here that cares to pipe up? The running game seems "scattershot" at best, and it seems like a carousel that I am happy I avoided, even though L. Murray has been sufficient thus far.

 But enough is enough, Cooper needs to snag a long TD or two.  Today would be a good day to fire it up~!    :drive:

 

 

 TZM

I love Cooper. I also have the Carr/Cooper combo in my redraft and expect big things. The talent is undeniable and I feel both of them are breaking out this season. This week can be a tough match-up.....but the Ravens defense is vulnerable IMO. Good times ahead all season. This is a premier young QB/WR combo for years to come.

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Cooper is ridiculously good.   I wish the Raiders would use him more.  Last week they seemed to consciously get him more involved but then didn't mix it up in the 2nd half by getting him the ball on the deeper routes.  They also need to look at him in the red zone more. 

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Cooper's floor is lower than I would like. Apparently he was shut down by JAC's rookie DB Jalen Ramsey last week. I haven't watched his targets but it's all I've been reading so I'm going to assume it's true.

There's one thing that's bugging me. Every time you hear someone talk about this WR corps they say Crabtree "dominates" RZ looks. Well, that's just flat out wrong. Crabtree has 8 RZ targets on the season, Cooper has 7 and Roberts also has 7. It's literally all I read and it makes me think prognosticators are lazy as ####. Cooper has just been a bit unlucky in the RZ this season.

 

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8 minutes ago, SameSongNDance said:

There's one thing that's bugging me. Every time you hear someone talk about this WR corps they say Crabtree "dominates" RZ looks. Well, that's just flat out wrong. Crabtree has 8 RZ targets on the season, Cooper has 7 and Roberts also has 7. It's literally all I read and it makes me think prognosticators are lazy as ####. Cooper has just been a bit unlucky in the RZ this season.

You say "unlucky" and I have a lot of respect for your opinion after years of lurking here. But are you sure it is unlucky? 

I ask because while I don't get to watch much football (live outside the U.S.) I was able to see part of one Oakland game (don't recall which).  Cooper did get a couple looks while I was watching but either the passes to him were terrible or he ran the route incorrectly.  He got one redzone look, it was the same story - the ball was nowhere near him.  The next play a perfect strike to a different receiver.  Did I just pick the wrong segment of a game to see or is there a disconnect between Carr and Cooper? 

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54 minutes ago, Phantom Knight said:

You say "unlucky" and I have a lot of respect for your opinion after years of lurking here. But are you sure it is unlucky?

I ask because while I don't get to watch much football (live outside the U.S.) I was able to see part of one Oakland game (don't recall which). Cooper did get a couple looks while I was watching but either the passes to him were terrible or he ran the route incorrectly. He got one redzone look, it was the same story - the ball was nowhere near him. The next play a perfect strike to a different receiver. Did I just pick the wrong segment of a game to see or is there a disconnect between Carr and Cooper?

Week 2 he has a long catch and run for a TD called back because he just barely stepped out of bounds (was forced out by Trufant. This isn't a RZ look but it kind of encapsulates the ####ty variance.

He was overthrown on what would have been an easy 30 yard TD in week 3.

Week 5 vs. SD he could've easily had a multi TD game. There was one play where he caught a TD in the back of the end zone but was pushed out of bounds before coming back in to catch it. I understand that a player cannot be the first person to touch the ball after being forced out of bounds but it was an odd call (I'm not intimately familiar with it) that refs conversed on for what seemed to be a solid 10 minutes. They ruled it as an incompletion but also a PI on the DB (1st & goal). In the same game I think he barely missed again on a fade where he couldn't get both feet in bounds.

It's not all fluky, some of it is obviously on him/Carr/both but I think he could very easily have more than just one TD so far this season. Especially, again, considering that he's seen essentially the same amount of RZ looks as Tree.

 

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A lot of the top WRs get more looks than the rest of the team though - or I may be being lazy as I admit that I didn't look that up.   Anecdotally Julio and Dez get a lot of red zone looks on the corner fade or back shoulder jump ball. 

Edited by kittenmittens

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8 minutes ago, kittenmittens said:

A lot of the top WRs get more looks than the rest of the team though - or I may be being lazy as I admit that I didn't look that up. Anecdotally Julio and Dez get a lot of red zone looks on the corner fade or back shoulder jump ball.

Julio actually only has 3 RZ looks this year. I've noticed that Ryan barely looks at him in the end zone. Good thing catching 60 yards bombs with ease count for just as much.

Cooper's 7 RZ looks pretty much puts him in the middle of the pack as far as WRs go. 

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18 minutes ago, kittenmittens said:

A lot of the top WRs get more looks than the rest of the team though - or I may be being lazy as I admit that I didn't look that up.   Anecdotally Julio and Dez get a lot of red zone looks on the corner fade or back shoulder jump ball. 

Julio historically gets very few RZ looks.

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Ah I guess I should have said Goal Line rather than red zone as that's what I was thinking of,  but either way you guys are right.  I didn't realize Emmanuel Sanders got more than Thomas,  but both of those guys are in the top 5 which is crazy.  Lots of suprise on that list... 

 

Tyrell Williams is at 5 on this list.   He gets a lot of complaint about lack of red zone looks... Julio did get a lot last year.   http://nflsavant.com/targets.php

Edited by kittenmittens

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10 hours ago, SameSongNDance said:

Cooper's floor is lower than I would like. Apparently he was shut down by JAC's rookie DB Jalen Ramsey last week. I haven't watched his targets but it's all I've been reading so I'm going to assume it's true.

Not really he was getting open but with 2 great WRs Oakland just picked on Amukamara most the game.

I can't find it right now but some one threw up a few gifs showing Cooper getting open with his quickness like he always does.

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http://www.espn.com/blog/oakland-raiders/post/_/id/16349/raiders-will-be-challenged-by-jameis-winston-mike-evans-combination

an SEC rematch between rookie Vernon Hargreaves and Amari Cooper should make for one of if not the most exciting matchup of the game. It wasn’t much of a contest in 2014, Hargreaves’ sophomore year, when Cooper put up 201 receiving yards and three touchdowns. Although those numbers weren’t entirely against Hargreaves, he did line up against the 6-foot-1, 4.38-running Cooper in man-coverage quite a bit and struggled.

 

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Quote
 

Amari Cooper (back) was limited at Wednesday's practice

 

It's the first time Cooper has been on the injury report all season. Even if he remains limited throughout the week, it's hard to envision Cooper sitting against the division-rival Broncos on Sunday night. Even in a tough matchup against Denver's elite secondary, Cooper belongs in the WR1 conversation.
 
 
Nov 2 - 7:07 PM

 

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