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Dynasty & Redraft: WR Amari Cooper, Cowboys

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12 minutes ago, Insein said:

Went by base salary of the contracts. So only $55m then. $15m for Zeke, $10m for Cooper and $30m for Dak. 

I think Zekes cap hit for ‘20 is just under 11m. I’ve read that was restructured already but don’t have details 

No offense, but you’re off by quite a bit in here I think

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34 minutes ago, Cowboysfan8 said:

I think Zekes cap hit for ‘20 is just under 11m. I’ve read that was restructured already but don’t have details 

No offense, but you’re off by quite a bit in here I think

Not much. If Zeke is $11m and Cooper $10 and Dak 30, that's still $51m for 3 players. Plus if Dak signs long term, he's going to be in the $35m/yr range. And you can't hide Zeke and coops cap hit forever. It's going to be a lot of money on the cap for 3 players. More power to them. 

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Quote

Speaking Tuesday, Redskins coach Ron Rivera confirmed the team pursued then free agent Amari Cooper "all the way until the end." 

“We would’ve love to have him apart of what we’re trying to do here," Rivera said. "He would’ve been a great veteran presence." It is widely believed the Redskins offered Cooper more money than the Cowboys, but the veteran wideout made the prudent decision to avoid Washington's rebuild. 
 

RELATED: 

Washington Redskins

SOURCE: JP Finlay on Twitter 

Apr 7, 2020, 2:31 PM ET

 

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He's solid, he'll be solid.  Good chance he'll finish as a high end WR2 or low end WR1.  The volume won't be insane, though.  Had 119 targets last year, and they add Lamb to the mix.  I don't know that he's going at a spot I want to own him in redraft. 

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Posted (edited)

There are 18 players in the last 25 years who have performed as well or better in their first five years.

at least 5000 years receiving

350 receptions

30 receiving TDs

Torry Holt

Randy Moss

Julio JOnes

AJ Green

Mike Evans

Larry Fitzgerald

Calvin JOhnson

DeAndre Hopkins

TY Hilton

Chad Johnson

Marvin Harrison

Michael Thomas

Odell Beckham

Dez Bryant

Demarius Thomas

Brandon Cooks

Marques Colston

Amari Cooper

Almost every player has had many years of top fantasy production.  I think people who are selling him short are missing the boat.

http://pfref.com/tiny/PxZia

  

 

Edited by az_prof
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On 6/11/2020 at 4:04 PM, az_prof said:

There are 18 players in the last 25 years who have performed as well or better in their first five years.

at least 5000 years receiving

350 receptions

30 receiving TDs

Torry Holt

Randy Moss

Julio JOnes

AJ Green

Mike Evans

Larry Fitzgerald

Calvin JOhnson

DeAndre Hopkins

TY Hilton

Chad Johnson

Marvin Harrison

Michael Thomas

Odell Beckham

Dez Bryant

Demarius Thomas

Brandon Cooks

Marques Colston

Amari Cooper

Almost every player has had many years of top fantasy production.  I think people who are selling him short are missing the boat.

http://pfref.com/tiny/PxZia

  

 

I was super high on Amari coming out of college.  I love his talent.  Cowboys offense is good.  But Marvin Harrison, Michael Thomas, he is not.  

Dak threw it a career high 596 times last year.  Cooper got 119 targets out of that.  Right at a 20% target share.  His career high in targets is 132 during the 2016 season with Oakland.  The Dallas defense still isn't great, so Dak may throw it a lot again this year.  Or maybe the defense takes a step forward, and Dak throws it closer to 550 times.  Moreso they added a 1st round receiver who probably takes at least a part of the pie.  

I doubt that Cooper gives you a career high in targets after the addition of Lamb.   He also had a career high in ypc last season.  Does he build on that?  Or is he closer to a 13-14 guy that he's always been.  He's broken 80 catches once.  I don't see that happening a 2nd time after they added Lamb.  

I think you're looking at another 75 catch, 1100 yard, 8 TD season.  And that's hardly terrible.  I don't know that it's what I'm using my 3rd round pick on.  

 

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23 hours ago, jm192 said:

I was super high on Amari coming out of college.  I love his talent.  Cowboys offense is good.  But Marvin Harrison, Michael Thomas, he is not.  

Dak threw it a career high 596 times last year.  Cooper got 119 targets out of that.  Right at a 20% target share.  His career high in targets is 132 during the 2016 season with Oakland.  The Dallas defense still isn't great, so Dak may throw it a lot again this year.  Or maybe the defense takes a step forward, and Dak throws it closer to 550 times.  Moreso they added a 1st round receiver who probably takes at least a part of the pie.  

I doubt that Cooper gives you a career high in targets after the addition of Lamb.   He also had a career high in ypc last season.  Does he build on that?  Or is he closer to a 13-14 guy that he's always been.  He's broken 80 catches once.  I don't see that happening a 2nd time after they added Lamb.  

I think you're looking at another 75 catch, 1100 yard, 8 TD season.  And that's hardly terrible.  I don't know that it's what I'm using my 3rd round pick on.  

 

I think your projection, which comes to 230 fantasy points, is pretty reasonable. I do see it more as a floor than a ceiling. It is true that Lamb may cut into his targets but they are also losing a ton of targets with the departure of Witten (84 targets) and Cobb(83). I don't see Jarwin getting as many targets as Witten.  And if Lamb is as good as people think, it may relieve some of the double teams on Amari and help him be more efficient.  I've also heard that Dallas may use Amari more in the slot in 2020 and that he has had the most success there, but that's yet to be seen. Final factor that could help 2020 Amari is that 2019 he played hurt most of the season--first it was plantar fasciatis and then a quad strain and then a knee. He played through the injuries but it seems clear that his play was affected. 

So I see 75/1100/8 as his floor, which isn't bad by any means (WR17) but I would see him doing more like 85/1250/8 (WR7).

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10 hours ago, az_prof said:

I think your projection, which comes to 230 fantasy points, is pretty reasonable. I do see it more as a floor than a ceiling. It is true that Lamb may cut into his targets but they are also losing a ton of targets with the departure of Witten (84 targets) and Cobb(83). I don't see Jarwin getting as many targets as Witten.  And if Lamb is as good as people think, it may relieve some of the double teams on Amari and help him be more efficient.  I've also heard that Dallas may use Amari more in the slot in 2020 and that he has had the most success there, but that's yet to be seen. Final factor that could help 2020 Amari is that 2019 he played hurt most of the season--first it was plantar fasciatis and then a quad strain and then a knee. He played through the injuries but it seems clear that his play was affected. 

So I see 75/1100/8 as his floor, which isn't bad by any means (WR17) but I would see him doing more like 85/1250/8 (WR7).

I don't think your numbers are crazy by any means.  It's not a reach by any means.  

Last year, Dak had a career high in attempts and Cooper only had 119 targets and 79 catches.  Between Lamb and the possibility Dak throws it a bit less--I have a hard time seeing Cooper getting to a career high in catches or yards.  But you're talking 6 more catches than last year and another 4 yards a game.  So it's definitely doable.  

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