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The strictly NFL gambling thread (1 Viewer)

ghostguy123

Footballguy
Yeah, a betting thread exists, but I don't need to know info and bets on cricket, soccer, hockey, horses, and how much everyone is drinking.

NFL baby.....................................................

Thoughts on this weeks games?

I keep trying to talk myself out of doing teasers, but did another tonight, took Green Bay (-2) and the under (54). Squeaked it out.

I like Atlanta +4 at the Giants. Probably ATL moneyline of +175

Steelers -6 at the Jags. Last week was just horrible for the Steelers, and the Jags suck.

CHargers -6.5 at home over the Jets looks appealing.

WHat ya got

 
Really??? You ####### bums. I know there are a thousand gamblers on here.

Also liking Phily -7 at home vs the Rams

 
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This thread should be Hard Deleted With A Vengance
Jesus christ. A FF site with a million dudes, many of whom gamble, and i am sure many of whom gamble mostly on football, and a thread dedicated to NFL betting to keep from sifting through the thousands of dumb ### posts in the all purpose gambling thread deserves a hard delete?? You guys are #######.

I figured a few people would maybe like to talk about some bets throughout the week rather than speak incoherent random drunk BS while watching obscure hockey, college basketball, or cricket in total degenerate gambler fashion.

Add this to the #### you thread.

 
If there is one thing I've learned from running a pick 'em pool against the spread with weighted picks for a decade It's that the NFL is a terrible place to try and earn a buck gambling.... the parity that they've created in the league has ruined the gambling on it.

How do you explain the Broncos getting crushed by the rams or the Raiders beating the Chiefs.... it's disgusting.

You don't even learn anything by watching or studying the games... one week a team can look so dominant, and the next week look worse than the Jags. There's no money to be made in a league like that.

Stick to the NBA or college football or soccer or tennis where results seem to make a lot more sense on a much more regular basis.

 
If there is one thing I've learned from running a pick 'em pool against the spread with weighted picks for a decade It's that the NFL is a terrible place to try and earn a buck gambling.... the parity that they've created in the league has ruined the gambling on it.

How do you explain the Broncos getting crushed by the rams or the Raiders beating the Chiefs.... it's disgusting.

You don't even learn anything by watching or studying the games... one week a team can look so dominant, and the next week look worse than the Jags. There's no money to be made in a league like that.

Stick to the NBA or college football or soccer or tennis where results seem to make a lot more sense on a much more regular basis.
I agree it is definitely harder than it used to be. All the info is out there plain as day now, so the lines are set much better than they used to be. I still win money every year, so gonna keep at it till I don't.

 
How do you explain the Broncos getting crushed by the rams or the Raiders beating the Chiefs.... it's disgusting.
I could dig up posts from the wagering thread, but the gist of it is that Jeff Fisher is a historically good home underdog. As for the Chiefs, they always lose the game before playing the Broncos in the subsequent week.

 
How do you explain the Broncos getting crushed by the rams or the Raiders beating the Chiefs.... it's disgusting.
I could dig up posts from the wagering thread, but the gist of it is that Jeff Fisher is a historically good home underdog. As for the Chiefs, they always lose the game before playing the Broncos in the subsequent week.
I can't stand people who bring up past records and obscure stuff like that like it actually matters.

I will listen to something about a QB who sucks in the snow or rain or whatevver, but when I hear crap like "PLayer X is notorious for being bad when he plays on the 17th day of any month when he plays against a Coach with three vowels in his name"..............so stupid

 
ghostguy123 said:
Question, why did you "really like" the Rams?
Rivers only covers the spread versus the NFC about 44% of the time, and is only about 38% against the spread as the favorite versus the NFC in his career. You want to bet Rivers when he is lined as the underdog. He wins 46% of his games straight-up as the dog, which is pretty good, and he covers the spread in those games about 60% of the time.

 
How do you explain the Broncos getting crushed by the rams or the Raiders beating the Chiefs.... it's disgusting.
I could dig up posts from the wagering thread, but the gist of it is that Jeff Fisher is a historically good home underdog. As for the Chiefs, they always lose the game before playing the Broncos in the subsequent week.
I can't stand people who bring up past records and obscure stuff like that like it actually matters.

I will listen to something about a QB who sucks in the snow or rain or whatevver, but when I hear crap like "PLayer X is notorious for being bad when he plays on the 17th day of any month when he plays against a Coach with three vowels in his name"..............so stupid
Alright. Well, I'm not going to get my feelings hurt. I'll just say that I was here trying to help. Good luck in the future with your NFL wagering.

 
How do you explain the Broncos getting crushed by the rams or the Raiders beating the Chiefs.... it's disgusting.
I could dig up posts from the wagering thread, but the gist of it is that Jeff Fisher is a historically good home underdog. As for the Chiefs, they always lose the game before playing the Broncos in the subsequent week.
I can't stand people who bring up past records and obscure stuff like that like it actually matters.

I will listen to something about a QB who sucks in the snow or rain or whatevver, but when I hear crap like "PLayer X is notorious for being bad when he plays on the 17th day of any month when he plays against a Coach with three vowels in his name"..............so stupid
I would bet a $1,000 that Chainsaw would win more money over a specific timeframe than you would heads up.

 
How do you explain the Broncos getting crushed by the rams or the Raiders beating the Chiefs.... it's disgusting.
I could dig up posts from the wagering thread, but the gist of it is that Jeff Fisher is a historically good home underdog. As for the Chiefs, they always lose the game before playing the Broncos in the subsequent week.
I can't stand people who bring up past records and obscure stuff like that like it actually matters.

I will listen to something about a QB who sucks in the snow or rain or whatevver, but when I hear crap like "PLayer X is notorious for being bad when he plays on the 17th day of any month when he plays against a Coach with three vowels in his name"..............so stupid
I was thinking about this earlier in the week when Chain was on the 'Chiefs before playing Broncos thing'. If you've ever played a team sport, the 'look-ahead' game makes perfect sense and you should have some experience with it personally, too. Teams do look ahead to the big division rival (or whoever), it's human nature. If you don't think that's really a thing, why do coaches spend so much time on the 'focus on the here and now, don't look ahead, blah blah' speech. The logic for the look-ahead game angle is definitely there, and the numbers back it up in this case.

And that's just one angle. Chain posts good angles that make sense. You're probably thinking about who plays QB for what team. News flash, Vegas knows who's playing QB for both teams.

 
ghostguy123 said:
Question, why did you "really like" the Rams?
Rivers only covers the spread versus the NFC about 44% of the time, and is only about 38% against the spread as the favorite versus the NFC in his career. You want to bet Rivers when he is lined as the underdog. He wins 46% of his games straight-up as the dog, which is pretty good, and he covers the spread in those games about 60% of the time.
The useful part of this is that he wins 46% as an underdog, as well as covering 60% of the time when the underdog.

The "vs NFC" stuff I can do without. Maybe a more useful stat would be "vs teams he hasnt played against in a few years" or something.

Just being from the NFC is quite trivial

 
How do you explain the Broncos getting crushed by the rams or the Raiders beating the Chiefs.... it's disgusting.
I could dig up posts from the wagering thread, but the gist of it is that Jeff Fisher is a historically good home underdog. As for the Chiefs, they always lose the game before playing the Broncos in the subsequent week.
I can't stand people who bring up past records and obscure stuff like that like it actually matters.

I will listen to something about a QB who sucks in the snow or rain or whatevver, but when I hear crap like "PLayer X is notorious for being bad when he plays on the 17th day of any month when he plays against a Coach with three vowels in his name"..............so stupid
I was thinking about this earlier in the week when Chain was on the 'Chiefs before playing Broncos thing'. If you've ever played a team sport, the 'look-ahead' game makes perfect sense and you should have some experience with it personally, too. Teams do look ahead to the big division rival (or whoever), it's human nature. If you don't think that's really a thing, why do coaches spend so much time on the 'focus on the here and now, don't look ahead, blah blah' speech. The logic for the look-ahead game angle is definitely there, and the numbers back it up in this case.

And that's just one angle. Chain posts good angles that make sense. You're probably thinking about who plays QB for what team. News flash, Vegas knows who's playing QB for both teams.
I know about the "look ahead" stuff. Did I ever say I was disagreeing with him?

If I did I misspoke on it. Was probably meaning to reference something else.

 
Thanks, TJ. That is nice of you. I was going to mention figures in my rebuttal, win totals, and also Confucius who said, "Study the past, if you would divine the future." But I think I overestimated my audience in here. I don't think he is joking, either, and for that I express sorrow and/or grief. But we'll be okay, lol.

 
How do you explain the Broncos getting crushed by the rams or the Raiders beating the Chiefs.... it's disgusting.
I could dig up posts from the wagering thread, but the gist of it is that Jeff Fisher is a historically good home underdog. As for the Chiefs, they always lose the game before playing the Broncos in the subsequent week.
I can't stand people who bring up past records and obscure stuff like that like it actually matters.

I will listen to something about a QB who sucks in the snow or rain or whatevver, but when I hear crap like "PLayer X is notorious for being bad when he plays on the 17th day of any month when he plays against a Coach with three vowels in his name"..............so stupid
I would bet a $1,000 that Chainsaw would win more money over a specific timeframe than you would heads up.
Thats a bet I would probably take.

I have won money on the NFL every year since 2001. Yes, every year. 14 years in a row. Never once lost over the course of a season. Not....once.

Not saying I made a killing or anything, but I have come out ahead every year.

But rather than bet a grand on that, probably better to just use that money and win on more NFL. I am not a degenerate gambler who bets like that

 
Thanks, TJ. That is nice of you. I was going to mention figures in my rebuttal, win totals, and also Confucius who said, "Study the past, if you would divine the future." But I think I overestimated my audience in here. I don't think he is joking, either, and for that I express sorrow and/or grief. But we'll be okay, lol.
I appreciate your downplaying of my IQ. Always fun.

When I bet I will use tangible things. If it's tangible, I will use it.

By all means, throw a few things at me and I will tell you if I think they are tangible.

 
SAints -3 at ATL

KC -3 at home vs Titans

Jags +10.5 at Philly

Vikings/Rams over 43.5

Not feeling real strong on any, just kinda feelin it a bit for these.
You went 0-4 on the squarest plays I have ever seen in my life and then disappeared. Do you post what you think and then fade yourself?

 
SAints -3 at ATL

KC -3 at home vs Titans

Jags +10.5 at Philly

Vikings/Rams over 43.5

Not feeling real strong on any, just kinda feelin it a bit for these.
You went 0-4 on the squarest plays I have ever seen in my life and then disappeared. Do you post what you think and then fade yourself?
For one, I didnt bet any of them. If I did, maybe one of them. Hence the "not feeling real strong" comment. Those were initial thoughts.

Impossible to get anywhere or follow along that ridiculous all purpose gambling thread with 560000 posts a day with nonsense about stuff I dont care about

 
How do you explain the Broncos getting crushed by the rams or the Raiders beating the Chiefs.... it's disgusting.
I could dig up posts from the wagering thread, but the gist of it is that Jeff Fisher is a historically good home underdog. As for the Chiefs, they always lose the game before playing the Broncos in the subsequent week.
I can't stand people who bring up past records and obscure stuff like that like it actually matters.

I will listen to something about a QB who sucks in the snow or rain or whatevver, but when I hear crap like "PLayer X is notorious for being bad when he plays on the 17th day of any month when he plays against a Coach with three vowels in his name"..............so stupid
I would bet a $1,000 that Chainsaw would win more money over a specific timeframe than you would heads up.
Thats a bet I would probably take.
I'd give you action here. I placed one wager today, thanks Saw :thumbup:

 

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