Or
Guys who think Hillman is the guy picked up Hillman.
Guys who think Anderson is the guy picked up Anderson.
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Ronnie Hillman, Denver 1/3 STARTING RB (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter fantasycurse42
- Start date
Guys who think Hillman is the guy picked up Hillman.
Guys who think Anderson is the guy picked up Anderson.
Berry:
Ronnie Hillman, Denver: Let's keep in mind that so far, the "DEN RB" has not had a lot of success in general. And since entering the league in 2012, Hillman has averaged 3.9 yards per carry, which would put him just ahead of Shonn Greene at 33rd among 42 qualified running backs during that span. There was one run inside an opponent's 10-yard line last week, and that went to Juwan Thompson. For all that is wrong with the Jets, they've allowed the fifth-fewest yards per carry this season. Until we see it for a full game and know for sure Hillman is the guy, I'm not ready to trust it
Ronnie Hillman, Denver: Let's keep in mind that so far, the "DEN RB" has not had a lot of success in general. And since entering the league in 2012, Hillman has averaged 3.9 yards per carry, which would put him just ahead of Shonn Greene at 33rd among 42 qualified running backs during that span. There was one run inside an opponent's 10-yard line last week, and that went to Juwan Thompson. For all that is wrong with the Jets, they've allowed the fifth-fewest yards per carry this season. Until we see it for a full game and know for sure Hillman is the guy, I'm not ready to trust it
Chaka
Footballguy
but wasn't Hillman hurt/sick the first two weeks?This is going to be long because ESPN reporters and their lazy, lazy, lazyyyyyyy analysis bugs the hell out of me. So skip ahead if you so desire.
This article by Jeff Legwold on ESPN, and specifically this quote below drive me crazy:
Week 1:
Ball - 66 snaps; 23 carries, 2 receptions
Anderson - 8 snaps; 4 carries
Hillman - Inactive
Week 2:
Ball - 37 snaps; 12 carries, 3 receptions
Anderson - 12 snaps; 5 carries
Hillman - 0 snaps (though active)
Week 3:
Ball - 54 snaps; 14 carries, 2 receptions
Anderson - 3 snaps; 2 carries, 1 reception
Hillman - 14 snaps (and I'm not 100% sure on the counts since I can't find them by quarter, but I watched this game and at least 6 of Hillman's snaps came in the final Manning drive -- others felt very sporadic); 2 carries, 1 reception
First Half - Week 5:
Ball - 7 carries, 2 receptions
Hillman - 1 carry
Anderson - inactive (so DEN could activate another DB, as stated by Fox)
How can you take all of that data from the first three games and the first half of the fourth, and conclude that Ronnie Hillman is the guy? Much less, how severely do you skew the snap count stats by including the second half of week 5 -- utilizing a full half of data in which the situation had radically changed, Hillman got 14 of his 15 touches, and played the vast majority of his 39 snaps -- POST BALL INJURY?
Hillman was inactive week 1, he didn't touch the ball week 2, and week three he touched it a grand total of 3 times despite getting 14 snaps, the majority of which were in desperation comeback mode where DEN likely wanted him in the screen game as he's a more productive receiver, e.g. better chance to take it to the house if they got him in space. Obviously that's my speculation, but it's not that far a stretch logically.
In the first half Sunday, before Ball got hurt early in the 3rd Quarter, Hillman had a grand total of 1 carry...for -1 yards...with :48 left in the first half... when DEN was running out the clock to head to the locker room. Ball, in the first half, had 6 carries, 2 receptions, and 3 targets.
Second half starts, and Ball is still the guy, getting the first carry, then getting injured on Denver's second play of the second half. At that point, Hillman proceeds to rack up 15 carries, but still cedes 3 carries (including goalline work) to 4th stringer Thompson who hadn't touched the ball all year. Numbers Legwold quoted in the article are much, much more accurate when used to depict the number of snaps and touches players had through the first 3 weeks when Denver didn't deactivate Anderson for a specified reason, are they not? << "Am I Wrong?" -- Walter Sobchak>>
Ball - 157 snaps; 56 touches (80.9% of the snaps; 79% of the touches)
Anderson - 23 snaps; 12 touches (11.9% of the snaps; 17% of the touches)
Hillman - 14 snaps; 3 touches (7.2%; 4% of the touches)
Through the first 3 weeks Anderson out touched Hillman 4-1, yet we're now supposed to buy that Hillman has had "17% of the carries and 19% of the snaps" as "the No.2 back both in practice and games for most of the season." Gimme a break, ESPN. And frankly, for all the talk Hillman is this special receiver the team needs to get in space? Ball has outpaced him in targets 11-4 and receptions 9-1. Anderson has even equaled Hillman in receptions 1-1.
Keep pimping Hillman... let's see how many times Charlie Brown tries to kick the football.
in preseason, Hillman ran well ahead of CJ and started when Ball was out...
mehrickyg said:
"I like that group," Gase said. " It's a sharp group and they run hard, and we just got to make sure we're on it this week because this is probably one of our tougher matchups scheme-wise."
"I don't think Ronnie gets enough credit for the fact that he'll go up there and meet a guy and he doesn't get rocked back," Gase said. "For his size, a lot of guys think they're just going to run over him. But, for whatever reason, he's got that power to be able to sustain his blocks."
"You can't do it with just one back in today's game, so we expect C.J. to do his job, Juwan to be ready," Manning said. "Those guys are both young backs, but both act like older players. I think we'll need the whole committee against these guys, and we're trying to get that running game going."
Mile High
Footballguy
The reason Hillman missed the first 2 games is because he did something in Dallas that pissed off the coaches so they set him. That's the rumorbut wasn't Hillman hurt/sick the first two weeks?This is going to be long because ESPN reporters and their lazy, lazy, lazyyyyyyy analysis bugs the hell out of me. So skip ahead if you so desire.
This article by Jeff Legwold on ESPN, and specifically this quote below drive me crazy:
Week 1:
Ball - 66 snaps; 23 carries, 2 receptions
Anderson - 8 snaps; 4 carries
Hillman - Inactive
Week 2:
Ball - 37 snaps; 12 carries, 3 receptions
Anderson - 12 snaps; 5 carries
Hillman - 0 snaps (though active)
Week 3:
Ball - 54 snaps; 14 carries, 2 receptions
Anderson - 3 snaps; 2 carries, 1 reception
Hillman - 14 snaps (and I'm not 100% sure on the counts since I can't find them by quarter, but I watched this game and at least 6 of Hillman's snaps came in the final Manning drive -- others felt very sporadic); 2 carries, 1 reception
First Half - Week 5:
Ball - 7 carries, 2 receptions
Hillman - 1 carry
Anderson - inactive (so DEN could activate another DB, as stated by Fox)
How can you take all of that data from the first three games and the first half of the fourth, and conclude that Ronnie Hillman is the guy? Much less, how severely do you skew the snap count stats by including the second half of week 5 -- utilizing a full half of data in which the situation had radically changed, Hillman got 14 of his 15 touches, and played the vast majority of his 39 snaps -- POST BALL INJURY?
Hillman was inactive week 1, he didn't touch the ball week 2, and week three he touched it a grand total of 3 times despite getting 14 snaps, the majority of which were in desperation comeback mode where DEN likely wanted him in the screen game as he's a more productive receiver, e.g. better chance to take it to the house if they got him in space. Obviously that's my speculation, but it's not that far a stretch logically.
In the first half Sunday, before Ball got hurt early in the 3rd Quarter, Hillman had a grand total of 1 carry...for -1 yards...with :48 left in the first half... when DEN was running out the clock to head to the locker room. Ball, in the first half, had 6 carries, 2 receptions, and 3 targets.
Second half starts, and Ball is still the guy, getting the first carry, then getting injured on Denver's second play of the second half. At that point, Hillman proceeds to rack up 15 carries, but still cedes 3 carries (including goalline work) to 4th stringer Thompson who hadn't touched the ball all year. Numbers Legwold quoted in the article are much, much more accurate when used to depict the number of snaps and touches players had through the first 3 weeks when Denver didn't deactivate Anderson for a specified reason, are they not? << "Am I Wrong?" -- Walter Sobchak>>
Ball - 157 snaps; 56 touches (80.9% of the snaps; 79% of the touches)
Anderson - 23 snaps; 12 touches (11.9% of the snaps; 17% of the touches)
Hillman - 14 snaps; 3 touches (7.2%; 4% of the touches)
Through the first 3 weeks Anderson out touched Hillman 4-1, yet we're now supposed to buy that Hillman has had "17% of the carries and 19% of the snaps" as "the No.2 back both in practice and games for most of the season." Gimme a break, ESPN. And frankly, for all the talk Hillman is this special receiver the team needs to get in space? Ball has outpaced him in targets 11-4 and receptions 9-1. Anderson has even equaled Hillman in receptions 1-1.
Keep pimping Hillman... let's see how many times Charlie Brown tries to kick the football.
in preseason, Hillman ran well ahead of CJ and started when Ball was out...
Dizzy
Footballguy
Chaka
Footballguy
Every head coach and offensive coordinator will say that about their stable of backs. Chip Kelly said something similar about Sproles earlier this year.
Chaka
Footballguy
All the reports from the team said Hillman was sick. But let's run with the conspiracy theory because that's more fun.
My scenario is this, and I'm sure many share it:
I opted to not use my waiver priority on Hillman because of the uncertainity.
I gambled that nobody would claim Anderson. Nobody did, and I picked him up as a free agent. He's on the bench and we'll see what happens. I think it's a smart, calculated gamble but it didn't cost me anything. If Hillman takes the gig and runs with it, then I missed out. Oh well.
I opted to not use my waiver priority on Hillman because of the uncertainity.
I gambled that nobody would claim Anderson. Nobody did, and I picked him up as a free agent. He's on the bench and we'll see what happens. I think it's a smart, calculated gamble but it didn't cost me anything. If Hillman takes the gig and runs with it, then I missed out. Oh well.
Dizzy
Footballguy
It's like Michael Jordan's secret suspension from the NBA for gambling... that's why they made up that whole story about him wanting to play baseball. That's the rumor.
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Chaka
Footballguy
But...but...but...maybe they're saving CJ and Juwan to use as super secret weapons like a surprise fully operational battle station protected by a force shield from the moon below. The Jets will never see it coming. Pew-pew-pew.
Chaka
Footballguy
Absolutely reasonable but I'm not certain why you wouldn't use your priority on a guy like Hillman AND grab CJ as a FA. Did you use your priority on Branden Oliver?
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Yep. I certainly had that playing in my favor, but I think I would have done the same regardless.
Mile High
Footballguy
It's the rumor most of the local talking heads use with the "sure he has sick wink wink"
Why waste the priority on Hillman when you can get the better of the two for free....Also wasting a roster spot on a player that will be useless.
VaTerp
Footballguy
I own Anderson in 2 leagues. One where he has sat on the end of my bench in a league with very deep rosters. And another where I have dropped him and picked him up about half a dozen times as my roster has been decimated by injury/suspension.
That said, I don't feel comfortable at all saying he is the better of the two or that Hillman is a waste of a roster spot. Hillman is getting the first crack to be the main ball carrier in the best offense in football. That alone is worth something and he was more productive in one half than Ball has been all season.
Chaka
Footballguy
Chaka
Footballguy
And if we knew that you were right or had even a modicum of evidence to support your contention then I would agree with you. However we don't, we don't and, based upon what we know, I can't.
Dondante
Footballguy
People have already crowned hillman the starter when nobody has a clue if he will be or not. I have tried to find the full context of when peyton said about hillman and cant. There were like 4 different versions of what he said. Nobody will know until sunday...
(when they announce cj is the starter)
(when they announce cj is the starter)
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
I think what happened is Hillman and another player landed in the hospital, missed week 1, and then was active but no carries week 2.The reason Hillman missed the first 2 games is because he did something in Dallas that pissed off the coaches so they set him. That's the rumorbut wasn't Hillman hurt/sick the first two weeks?This is going to be long because ESPN reporters and their lazy, lazy, lazyyyyyyy analysis bugs the hell out of me. So skip ahead if you so desire.
This article by Jeff Legwold on ESPN, and specifically this quote below drive me crazy:
Week 1:
Ball - 66 snaps; 23 carries, 2 receptions
Anderson - 8 snaps; 4 carries
Hillman - Inactive
Week 2:
Ball - 37 snaps; 12 carries, 3 receptions
Anderson - 12 snaps; 5 carries
Hillman - 0 snaps (though active)
Week 3:
Ball - 54 snaps; 14 carries, 2 receptions
Anderson - 3 snaps; 2 carries, 1 reception
Hillman - 14 snaps (and I'm not 100% sure on the counts since I can't find them by quarter, but I watched this game and at least 6 of Hillman's snaps came in the final Manning drive -- others felt very sporadic); 2 carries, 1 reception
First Half - Week 5:
Ball - 7 carries, 2 receptions
Hillman - 1 carry
Anderson - inactive (so DEN could activate another DB, as stated by Fox)
How can you take all of that data from the first three games and the first half of the fourth, and conclude that Ronnie Hillman is the guy? Much less, how severely do you skew the snap count stats by including the second half of week 5 -- utilizing a full half of data in which the situation had radically changed, Hillman got 14 of his 15 touches, and played the vast majority of his 39 snaps -- POST BALL INJURY?
Hillman was inactive week 1, he didn't touch the ball week 2, and week three he touched it a grand total of 3 times despite getting 14 snaps, the majority of which were in desperation comeback mode where DEN likely wanted him in the screen game as he's a more productive receiver, e.g. better chance to take it to the house if they got him in space. Obviously that's my speculation, but it's not that far a stretch logically.
In the first half Sunday, before Ball got hurt early in the 3rd Quarter, Hillman had a grand total of 1 carry...for -1 yards...with :48 left in the first half... when DEN was running out the clock to head to the locker room. Ball, in the first half, had 6 carries, 2 receptions, and 3 targets.
Second half starts, and Ball is still the guy, getting the first carry, then getting injured on Denver's second play of the second half. At that point, Hillman proceeds to rack up 15 carries, but still cedes 3 carries (including goalline work) to 4th stringer Thompson who hadn't touched the ball all year. Numbers Legwold quoted in the article are much, much more accurate when used to depict the number of snaps and touches players had through the first 3 weeks when Denver didn't deactivate Anderson for a specified reason, are they not? << "Am I Wrong?" -- Walter Sobchak>>
Ball - 157 snaps; 56 touches (80.9% of the snaps; 79% of the touches)
Anderson - 23 snaps; 12 touches (11.9% of the snaps; 17% of the touches)
Hillman - 14 snaps; 3 touches (7.2%; 4% of the touches)
Through the first 3 weeks Anderson out touched Hillman 4-1, yet we're now supposed to buy that Hillman has had "17% of the carries and 19% of the snaps" as "the No.2 back both in practice and games for most of the season." Gimme a break, ESPN. And frankly, for all the talk Hillman is this special receiver the team needs to get in space? Ball has outpaced him in targets 11-4 and receptions 9-1. Anderson has even equaled Hillman in receptions 1-1.
Keep pimping Hillman... let's see how many times Charlie Brown tries to kick the football.
in preseason, Hillman ran well ahead of CJ and started when Ball was out...
Now whatever they did that landed them in the hospital could have been something innocuous like food poisoning, but it's also possible that whatever it was he was doing both got him really sick, sick enough to go the hospital, and get the staff aggravated at him for what he was doing.
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Hillman is the starter, just like in preseasonPeople have already crowned hillman the starter when nobody has a clue if he will be or not. I have tried to find the full context of when peyton said about hillman and cant. There were like 4 different versions of what he said. Nobody will know until sunday...
(when they announce cj is the starter)
CJ will have a bigger role than he did when Ball was healthy
Juwan Thompson will have a bigger role
Hillman's size, durability, past ineffectiveness and fumbling issues are concerns
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Papa Georgio
Footballguy
They've tried to give this thing to Hillman before. Maybe he's corrected his short-comings. They don't seem to have a lot of faith in CJ for whatever reason but to me he looks like the best runner. I would imagine it's the dreaded passpro.
Odds are everyone is right and everyone is wrong, but if I had the chance I would certainly take a stab and hope I got lucky.
Odds are everyone is right and everyone is wrong, but if I had the chance I would certainly take a stab and hope I got lucky.
Twenty-Four Eighty-Four
Footballguy
ratbast
Footballguy
What makes anyone think that one of these guys will be a "bell-cow"? Who cares if either of these guys starts?
Wouldn't it be safe to assume that the probable scenario would be RBBC like the Saints/Ravens etc?
I picked up CJ because I'm looking for a part of the Den RBBC.
There is a gray area here and I would expect that to be the most probable result.
Wouldn't it be safe to assume that the probable scenario would be RBBC like the Saints/Ravens etc?
I picked up CJ because I'm looking for a part of the Den RBBC.
There is a gray area here and I would expect that to be the most probable result.
Chaka
Footballguy
purestrength
Footballguy
Someone mentioned a comparison to the New Orleans backfield. How about Hillman as Thomas, C.J. as Ingram and Thompson as Robinson? Only not as good.
I still wish Denver had kept Moreno.
I still wish Denver had kept Moreno.
Dizzy
Footballguy
Chaka
Footballguy
How about Hillman as a pirate, CJ as a construction worker and Thompson as a
?Sorry, sincerely I am. Couldn't help myself.
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Fever in the Funkhouse
Footballguy
O/U: Ronnie Hillman 55.5 rushing yards
(O/U -115)
Hillman is the starter with Montee Ball out, but what does that mean? ESPN Broncos reporter Jeff Legwold hit this very topic on Thursday, offering up some helpful splits on how Denver distributed its carries. Ball received 55.6 percent of the Broncos' rushes before leaving Sunday's game with a groin injury. This was fairly consistent with lead back percentages in 2013 (52.3 percent for Knowshon Moreno) and 2012 under offensive coordinator Mike McCoy (62.1 percent for Willis McGahee in Weeks 1-11 before he missed the last six games). Using 60 percent as a benchmark for Hillman seems fair enough.
http://m.espn.go.com/general/story?storyId=11674841&src=desktop&rand=ref~%7B%22ref%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com%2F%22%7D
(O/U -115)
Hillman is the starter with Montee Ball out, but what does that mean? ESPN Broncos reporter Jeff Legwold hit this very topic on Thursday, offering up some helpful splits on how Denver distributed its carries. Ball received 55.6 percent of the Broncos' rushes before leaving Sunday's game with a groin injury. This was fairly consistent with lead back percentages in 2013 (52.3 percent for Knowshon Moreno) and 2012 under offensive coordinator Mike McCoy (62.1 percent for Willis McGahee in Weeks 1-11 before he missed the last six games). Using 60 percent as a benchmark for Hillman seems fair enough.
http://m.espn.go.com/general/story?storyId=11674841&src=desktop&rand=ref~%7B%22ref%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com%2F%22%7D
Dizzy
Footballguy
Considering this thread will probably disappear after Monday's "I told you so's"... I'll make my call, and then dish it out, or take it like a man Sunday night.
I say Ronnie Hillman slides right in and assumes Montee Ball's role on Sunday. If CJ was really #2, he would have been #2 (and then #1) last week. Regardless of how/why that shook out, it came time to chew clock with a big lead against a tough - albeit, demoralized, run defense... and Hillman answered the call. Over 4 yards a carry, and the coaches trusted him enough NOT to do the only thing that would give hope to ARZ - fumble (and he didn't).
Good chance this week's script goes much like last week's... I think Peyton throws for 300 and 3-4 TD's by halftime, and Ronnie Hillman goes over 100 in the second half (well over if he breaks off a long one).
That's my take... I have the crow thawing in the fridge, but I'm not gonna pluck it until I see Hillman put the ball on the ground, or he gets Manning killed missing a blitz.
I say Ronnie Hillman slides right in and assumes Montee Ball's role on Sunday. If CJ was really #2, he would have been #2 (and then #1) last week. Regardless of how/why that shook out, it came time to chew clock with a big lead against a tough - albeit, demoralized, run defense... and Hillman answered the call. Over 4 yards a carry, and the coaches trusted him enough NOT to do the only thing that would give hope to ARZ - fumble (and he didn't).
Good chance this week's script goes much like last week's... I think Peyton throws for 300 and 3-4 TD's by halftime, and Ronnie Hillman goes over 100 in the second half (well over if he breaks off a long one).
That's my take... I have the crow thawing in the fridge, but I'm not gonna pluck it until I see Hillman put the ball on the ground, or he gets Manning killed missing a blitz.
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LittlePhatty
Footballguy
And everyone could wind up losing.
45 yards and no TDs each. Then when Ball comes back the three will split for 30/0 each every game while Payton throws until his arm falls off.
No Denver RB is going to be a bell cow this year. They're playing primarily as pass-blockers. Occasionally Peyton will mix it up and call a running play when he thinks defenses are focusing on the pass, but that's situational, called at the line, and not dependent on which back is in the game. What's more, Peyton now has so many weapons at his disposal that he doesn't need to check down to his RBs as much this year, so they aren't getting the dump-offs that Moreno got last year. I want no part of this backfield in fantasy, I think Ball gets his job back when he's healthy because he's the best pass blocker, and I don't think it'll matter. Also, I don't think it's "buy low" on Ball time, either - his role isn't likely to increase and his fantasy value remains over-inflated.
It's ridiculous IMO for people to say they want no part in this or that they are avoiding this situation. It's a lottery ticket type situation that may not pay off - but I would rather sit here with Anderson or Hillman on my bench than guys with limited upside like Storm Johnson, Cunningham, Reaves, Hurns ....and the list goes on.
If Anderson never gets a start for me - that's the same number of times I would start one of those guys.
If Anderson never gets a start for me - that's the same number of times I would start one of those guys.
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ratbast
Footballguy
Adam Harstad
Moderator
I'm normally not one who puts much stock in rumors and innuendo, but I think there's a decent chance this one has some legs to it. Apparently Ronnie Hillman looked plenty healthy the week leading up to the game against Indy, so I'm skeptical that his stint on the inactive roster had anything to do with any lingering health concerns. I think the "Ronnie Hillman and Kayvon Webster did something they weren't supposed to in Dallas, had to go to the hospital because of it, and were demoted early in the season as a punishment" story fits pretty well with the facts on the field.
Either way, the simple truth is that Ronnie Hillman got to rest on week 4 of the preseason while C.J. Anderson had to play. Whether Hillman missed week 1 and was glued to the bench in week 2 because he was being punished or because he was feeling the lingering effects of whatever put him in the hospital, Hillman was pretty clearly ahead of Anderson on the depth chart before that, and he's pretty clearly been back ahead of Anderson on the depth chart since, outsnapping Anderson 14-3 against Seattle and playing well against Arizona while Anderson was inactive. If I had to bet on a Denver back in the short term, that'd be my bet. At least for now. We've seen Hillman blow opportunities plenty of times before this. I have very little faith that this time will finally be the time he makes the most of his chance.
If I were placing a bet on what happens long term? I know everyone is eager to push him out the door, but I think it's going to be Ball's job again whenever he gets healthy. Sort of like Ben Tate in Cleveland, or Rashad Jennings in New York, or Knowshon Moreno in Miami, (or Knowshon Moreno last year in Denver). Everyone is eager to push those boring incumbents out the door for the next big thing, but NFL teams keep going back to them for a reason. Who knows if Denver will get its running game sorted out enough for the lead back to have any fantasy value, (I think they will, but they certainly haven't so far), but if any back is fantasy relevant over the final 6-8 weeks of the season, I think it's going to be Ball.
Based on who they play the next 3 weeks I don't see any RB impressing anyone and if 3 weeks is all Ball misses he'll come back to his starting job no questions asked.
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Dropped Taliaferro this week for Anderson. And nobody has picked him up. You probably value him more as his owner.
Limited upside and when they put Pierce in the game in the second half, he had some nice runs and Forsett had some nice early runs.
Tal's spot is no more clear than Anderson right now.
So IMO, if you start Tal, you will get burned more often than you win.
I would rather rip up my lottery ticket on Sunday than watch Tal be a non issue on my team.
Mr. Retukes
Footballguy
I'm not sure I understand the mentality of valuing Taliaferro, Crowell and Vereen over Anderson.
Anderson is the only one of those four who actually has a chance of earning a starting job. The other 3 guys are clear backups who will only become starters due to injury.
Either way, they're all lottery picks.
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