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FanDuel/DraftKings Week 9 (1 Viewer)

Maurile Tremblay

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Staff member
From now on, the value charts that are posted on Monday will be for the Mon-Thurs contests.

I've got FanDuel and DraftKings up right now.

As of now, projections for MNF game are by me, David, and Sigmund.

Projections for TNF game are only by me. I'll add David's and Sig's TNF projections when and if they become available before MNF kickoff.

Sometime after MFN kickoff, the value charts will switch to normal Week 9 fare.

On a side note, I actually don't think the Mon-Thurs games are a great idea to play. There are so few players available, I think most people will have very similar lineups and the luck-skill ratio will be a lot higher. There's still some skill involved, but perhaps not so much that a skilled player can expect to beat the rake. It still could be fun, though, so if you're inclined to play the Mon-Thurs games, give the value charts a whirl and see if they work properly. I think they do, but in a rush to get them posted, I haven't done as much testing as I'd normally do...

 
Some "first glance" players I like at DK -

QB: Romo @ $7500, Dalton @ $6300, Bridgewater @ $5200

RB: Hillman @ $5600, Ingram @ $5500, Robinson @ $4800

WR: AJ Green @ $6300 (if he plays), Hopkins @ $5400, Hawkins @ $4900, Michael Floyd @ $3800

TE: JT @ $5600, Kelce @ $4100

 
Some "first glance" players I like at DK -

QB: Romo @ $7500, Dalton @ $6300, Bridgewater @ $5200

RB: Hillman @ $5600, Ingram @ $5500, Robinson @ $4800

WR: AJ Green @ $6300 (if he plays), Hopkins @ $5400, Hawkins @ $4900, Michael Floyd @ $3800

TE: JT @ $5600, Kelce @ $4100
Yeah I'll get back to you on Romo... he doesn't look particularly healthy at the time of this posting.

 
From now on, the value charts that are posted on Monday will be for the Mon-Thurs contests.

I've got FanDuel and DraftKings up right now.

As of now, projections for MNF game are by me, David, and Sigmund.

Projections for TNF game are only by me. I'll add David's and Sig's TNF projections when and if they become available before MNF kickoff.

Sometime after MFN kickoff, the value charts will switch to normal Week 9 fare.

On a side note, I actually don't think the Mon-Thurs games are a great idea to play. There are so few players available, I think most people will have very similar lineups and the luck-skill ratio will be a lot higher. There's still some skill involved, but perhaps not so much that a skilled player can expect to beat the rake. It still could be fun, though, so if you're inclined to play the Mon-Thurs games, give the value charts a whirl and see if they work properly. I think they do, but in a rush to get them posted, I haven't done as much testing as I'd normally do...
Nice addition to the value charts, thanks.

I tend to agree about the Mon-Thurs(or Sun. night - Mon) contests being a weak play. But I do play the GPPs for them some weeks. This week there was a huge overlay on the Mon-Thurs $2 tourneys on FanDuel and if you fade the right expected high ownership players you have a decent shot. Dallas D was a good example this week, coming in at around 60% owned and put up 6 points. With the overlay, if you fade Dallas D and make the right call on another D you have a shot at cashing even with a chalkish line up.

 
I put an entry in the $5 Survivor contest weeks ago and never even read the rules. Since I am still alive I looked it up... wow. That is a pretty big contest, great set up. I wish I had loaded up on entries.

 
At first glance, (I haven't put MUCH research in yet, just glancing over) Fanduel looks VERY tough. There doesn't seem to be many easy choices out there, but I'm sure I missed some.

I really like stacking two good RB's in my cash games and this week it looks like I will have plenty of Gio and Foster.

 
I'm already leaning towards a few iterations w/ Bridgewater at QB. I don't think he's great, but his salary allows some flexibility elsewhere and he should at least do OK.

 
i like Kap for some reason this week.(against Rams)

..but then again.. its real early, and i havent even begun to read up on anyone in particular just yet.

 
A question for you veterans of the daily format: As the season wears on, do scores tend to increase? Seems that we are getting more data from this season to utilize rather than having to project based on prior season data and assumptions.

 
A question for you veterans of the daily format: As the season wears on, do scores tend to increase? Seems that we are getting more data from this season to utilize rather than having to project based on prior season data and assumptions.
I don't have enough data to say anything for sure, but my gut tells me it gets a little harder as the season wears on, not so much because of better projections but moreso because the... less-interested(?) players start dropping out. At the start of the season a lot of people get caught up in the excitement, maybe get swayed by a marketing push for deposit bonuses, etc. They play a few weeks, win some, lose some, whatever, and cash out. My guess is that as the season continues, contest volume decreases and the player pool naturally skews more towards the more serious players, which may increase the average scores needed to cash or generally makes it slightly tougher to win.

 
A question for you veterans of the daily format: As the season wears on, do scores tend to increase? Seems that we are getting more data from this season to utilize rather than having to project based on prior season data and assumptions.
No - Last week was just a perfect storm. Lots of prime matchups, high scoring, and players that were expected to perform actually did. I'm guessing that that week 8 will be the highest scoring week of the year for daily lineups, and probably by a wide margin. I don't think that the scoring in week 7 was particularly high.

If anything, it gets harder as the year goes on because players are more appropriately valued, so there is less opportunity to find a steal. Take this week for example, I spent 10 minutes or so looking at FD values and absolutely nothing stood out.

 
Dirtybird said:
At first glance, (I haven't put MUCH research in yet, just glancing over) Fanduel looks VERY tough. There doesn't seem to be many easy choices out there, but I'm sure I missed some.

I really like stacking two good RB's in my cash games and this week it looks like I will have plenty of Gio and Foster.
Doesn't Gio have a hip injury? I was looking at Hill.

 
Dirtybird said:
At first glance, (I haven't put MUCH research in yet, just glancing over) Fanduel looks VERY tough. There doesn't seem to be many easy choices out there, but I'm sure I missed some.

I really like stacking two good RB's in my cash games and this week it looks like I will have plenty of Gio and Foster.
Doesn't Gio have a hip injury? I was looking at Hill.
I thought I would hear more on Monday, definitely something to watch. If Gio was out for some reason, Hill would be one of those 'must plays' like McKinnon was last week, lol.

 
Missed last week while on vacation, looking forward to getting back on the wagon this week.

On Fanduel after a quick glance I liked a few guys.

QB - Eli

RB - Meh

WR -- Houston WRs, Mike Wallace

TE - Meh

 
I like Hillman, Hawkins, Odell, Jennings...and with Jimmy Smith out, Big Ben could keep rolling as well wanting to prove last week was not a fluke.

 
A question for you veterans of the daily format: As the season wears on, do scores tend to increase? Seems that we are getting more data from this season to utilize rather than having to project based on prior season data and assumptions.
I don't have enough data to say anything for sure, but my gut tells me it gets a little harder as the season wears on, not so much because of better projections but moreso because the... less-interested(?) players start dropping out. At the start of the season a lot of people get caught up in the excitement, maybe get swayed by a marketing push for deposit bonuses, etc. They play a few weeks, win some, lose some, whatever, and cash out. My guess is that as the season continues, contest volume decreases and the player pool naturally skews more towards the more serious players, which may increase the average scores needed to cash or generally makes it slightly tougher to win.
Actually, it's kind of the opposite.

In personal conversations with high-level executives across multiple sites (including Nigel at FanDuel), the influx of players is still increasing through the beginning of November...likely due to season-long players who have lost interest due to poor drafts and/or injuries, as well as word-of-mouth advertising from friends who tried DFS earlier in the Fall and enjoyed it. Those new players dilute the overall skill-level of the DFS gamer pool, but one could argue that the September sign-ups are improving at that point...so the difference in scoring between weeks is minimal. [Last week was an aberration, that's all]

The time to stop playing NFL DFS is when there are 4 or less games during playoffs (IMO)...at that point, the player diversity is limited and the edge to a sharp player is significantly dulled.

 
so far Fanduel I'm liking:

QB: Brady, Kap, Alex Smith

RB: Hillman, Lynch, Ingram, McCoy

WR: Hilton, Maclin, Lafell, Sanders, Dez

TE: Gronk, Gates, Kelce

I'm thinking will do at lest one GPP lineup with Alex Smith/Kelce stack. NYJ are last in NFL giving up 22.1 FPPG to QB with 2.8 PaTD to 0.1 Int per game. They are 29 in league at 13.3 FPPG to TE with 1.1 TE RecTD/game.

 
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I was also thinking about a Smith/Kelce stack. The Jets are great against the run too so hopefully they can limit Charles and make Smith pass more.

 
What do you guys think of this line-up? I need to win some freaking money this week!

QB: Kaepernick

RB: McCoy

RB: Forsett

WR: Brown

WR: Johnson

WR: Randle

TE: Kelce

K: McManus

DEF: Bengals

 
Early thoughts:

QB: It is hard to look past Brady this week. There are many nice match up at QB, but Brady at home vs arch rival Jughead is super juicy. I will likely mix in some Wilson, Kaep and Bridgewater as well, but so far I expect to be heavy on Brady.

RB: Foster and Murray are always solid picks if you can afford them. Ingram is great value on Thursday. McCoy seems ready to break out and Lynch vs Oak is appealing on many levels. I will be heavy on McKinnon this week vs Washington and expect to sprinkle in some Bradshaw.

WR: If Peterson is out for the Cards, Dez and T. Williams become very appealing, good plays even if Peterson plays. TY Hilton remains an almost "must" play. LaFell is set up for a big game, but BB being so unpredictable limits my excitement somewhat. DeSean Jackson vs Minn?..yea, I will take a piece of that action. I normally do not like playing guys the first week back from an injury, but if AJ Green plays he will be in a lot of my GPP line ups. Kenny Briit and M. Evans are also on the radar.

TE: Gronk. I will trim anywhere else to get him in the line up this week for cash games. In GPPs I will mix in some other options; Kelce, Donnell, V. Davis, maybe even Tim Wright.

As always I reserve the right to change my mind completely by Sunday morning, but this where I am right now.

 
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How much time/energy do you put into picking your opponents in cash games on FD? I typically steer clear of the big players, but is it really worth the hassle? I mean, they likely lose 50% of their games just like the rest of us...

 
My first run that may take some tweaking.

Russell Wilson
Ahmad Bradshaw
Justin Forsett
T.Y. Hilton
Antonio Brown
Jermaine Kearse
Travis Kelce
Nick Novak
Kansas City Chiefs

 
My first run that may take some tweaking.

Russell Wilson

Ahmad Bradshaw

Justin Forsett

T.Y. Hilton

Antonio Brown

Jermaine Kearse

Travis Kelce

Nick Novak

Kansas City Chiefs
McCoy/Ingram $100 cheaper. Forsett doesn't get TDs.

 
pbandy1 said:
What do you guys think of this line-up? I need to win some freaking money this week!

QB: Kaepernick

RB: McCoy

RB: Forsett

WR: Brown

WR: Johnson

WR: Randle

TE: Kelce

K: McManus

DEF: Bengals
I've got a similar lineup for my main Sunday: Kap, McCoy/Hillman, Brown/LaFell/Hawkins, Kelce, Novak, Browns.

Looking at most of my lineups so far I'm thinking I may be too invested in Kelce. May tweak this some and upgrade TE to Gronk and downgrade WR.

 
My first run that may take some tweaking.

Russell Wilson

Ahmad Bradshaw

Justin Forsett

T.Y. Hilton

Antonio Brown

Jermaine Kearse

Travis Kelce

Nick Novak

Kansas City Chiefs
McCoy/Ingram $100 cheaper. Forsett doesn't get TDs.
Thanks on the input.. Ingram would be nice.. But this is for a Sunday-Monday game so can't play him this week..

Went with Forsett mainly because I was having a hard time finding low end RB's I liked..

I'd either have to drop down on my WR's .. Or drop down from Bradshaw, so I could climb a bit higher from Forsett..

I guess I could always drop down from Wilson to Kaepernick... But that is only a $800 savings and Russel seems about due for a big game, especially at home vs. Oakland..

:popcorn:

 
How much time/energy do you put into picking your opponents in cash games on FD? I typically steer clear of the big players, but is it really worth the hassle? I mean, they likely lose 50% of their games just like the rest of us...
Unless you are winning 60+% of your games, you should be vetting your H2H opponents. If you are playing most of your action against Al_Smizzle, CSURams88, CONDIA, 1ucror, dinkpiece, etc, you will never win over the long-term because those guys will beat you at least as much as you beat them (probably more). After the rake, there is no way to profit when routinely playing against those opponents.

I am a profitable player and I still take the time to vet my opponents by checking their wins and sometimes looking their rankings up on rotogrinders (if they are not members, that tells me something, too); the time that it takes me to do so is minimal compared to the amount of time I spend researching games and putting together rosters, so it only makes good sense.

 
How much time/energy do you put into picking your opponents in cash games on FD? I typically steer clear of the big players, but is it really worth the hassle? I mean, they likely lose 50% of their games just like the rest of us...
Unless you are winning 60+% of your games, you should be vetting your H2H opponents. If you are playing most of your action against Al_Smizzle, CSURams88, CONDIA, 1ucror, dinkpiece, etc, you will never win over the long-term because those guys will beat you at least as much as you beat them (probably more). After the rake, there is no way to profit when routinely playing against those opponents.
I gotta say, I've played a few H2H's w/ condia and 1ucror and I've not see anything that is particularly special. Granted I'm catching them on the bottom end of their price points so maybe I'm getting their less optimal lineups, but they just seem like quality lineups just like mine (and most of the folks here I imagine).

Don't get me wrong, we all want newbs who are just dabbling for our opponents. I get that. I just don't think those "pros" are significantly better than FBG subscribers who invest a little time and energy.

 
How much time/energy do you put into picking your opponents in cash games on FD? I typically steer clear of the big players, but is it really worth the hassle? I mean, they likely lose 50% of their games just like the rest of us...
Unless you are winning 60+% of your games, you should be vetting your H2H opponents. If you are playing most of your action against Al_Smizzle, CSURams88, CONDIA, 1ucror, dinkpiece, etc, you will never win over the long-term because those guys will beat you at least as much as you beat them (probably more). After the rake, there is no way to profit when routinely playing against those opponents.

I am a profitable player and I still take the time to vet my opponents by checking their wins and sometimes looking their rankings up on rotogrinders (if they are not members, that tells me something, too); the time that it takes me to do so is minimal compared to the amount of time I spend researching games and putting together rosters, so it only makes good sense.
Is Rotogrinders worth the :moneybag: ?

 
:blackdot:

I finally lost the little that was left of my initial deposit last weekend, fielding very average/slightly good teams on a super high scoring weekend. I may have to sit out this weekend before reloading for the 2nd half.

I'm thinking of throwing in with DraftKings for the 2nd half. I like that there is no kicker and it's replaced with a Flex position. But mostly, I like that you can still swap out players up until their game starts. I'd still have money to play around with in my account if FanDuel had this option, as I got screwed a couple of times in Thursday entries where guys had injuries pop up during the week. Anyone know if FanDuel is going to offer this option soon? Good luck this week everyone.

 
Odd that there are only 4 WR between 7K-8K on FD

DeSean Jackson 7800
Mike Wallace 7200
Steve Smith 7200
Mohamed Sanu 7200

 
My initial cut at a Thursday night lineup... thoughts?

Code:
Cam Newton	 7800Andre Ellington	 7700 (or McCoy 7800)Mark Ingram	 6100Jeremy Maclin	 8400T.Y. Hilton	 8100Kelvin Benjamin	 7000Travis Kelce	 5400Brandon McManus	 4600Cleveland Browns 4800
 

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