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Stinkin Ref

Halfway Home....Hits and Misses....Random Thoughts...

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Pretty much at or just past the midway point of the fantasy season, and I don’t know about anybody else, but these days when pretty much everybody can get the same information, one of the things I find somewhat beneficial is to see where I hit and more importantly where I missed this year when it comes to my preseason opinions on players. And on top of that, not just where I missed, but why? I have campaigned for years for FBG to do more of this; more detailed reflection so that we can see where and why we missed. I think we all get man crushes on certain players before the season and some players are just dead to us. It’s pretty easy these days with the interwebs for everything to look about the same from draft to draft, and even guys that spend .01% of the time focusing on this hobby as most of us in here do….can still kick our ###. Self evaluation is important so that we don't keep making the same mistakes as the gap closes between true sharks and the casual player in this hobby.

I’ll be honest, I used to spend a ton of time in the Shark Pool, but quite honestly I don’t swim in there much anymore. I consider the guys in the Mock Draft forum my “go to” place for information/feedback/opinions. I know we still need to pay attention to the experts here at FBG, and it’s awesome when they come in here and toss the ball around with us. But for me, this forum has really turned into my go to place prior to and during the season. Some good dudes in here with some great points of view.

Random thoughts:

QB:

I’m not surprised how things have gone so far when you look at the rankings.

I thought Palmer would be a little higher and obviously he probably would be without the injury.

I was and still am a little down on Rivers but up until this week I have to admit I am missing on that one. I thought he would settle in around QB 14-15 but they aren’t running the ball the way they wanted and Rivers is a pretty good QB even though I still think he is a #####.

No huge hits or misses here as I have generally been a stud QB guy when it comes to drafts. But heading into next year, I want to keep my eye on how Tannehill finishes.

RB:

Ball: I #### the bed here but it has an * next to it. I’m still warm on him moving forward as I want to take the wait and see approach, but this has turned out to be a huge miss. Easy to blame the injury, but he didn’t look that impressive early anyway. But IMO, I think he may have turned it on sans injury. But by far my most costly investment in most leagues. I thought I had a good feel for the DEN backfield heading into the season, but I really didn’t. I underestimated the things I heard about how much work Hillman had been putting in.

Foster: was dead to me, so this has to be a miss. While I think it was justified to have him on my dead to me list and this latest injury may prove out, others have been reaping the benefits while I passed on him every time.

Charles: As a KC fan I just honestly didn’t think he would stay healthy, I thought his frame was too fragile for the pounding he was going to take, and the price you had to pay for him, but dude is pretty tough, I’m no longer a doubter.

Ingram: I missed. He looks the part of a solid NFL RB now and I didn’t see it coming.

Bradshaw: probably should have been higher on him than I was, but his injury history scared me. CLE unloading Richardson probably said more than we gave them credit for. They knew things.

Reggie Bush: I consider this a hit since I have never been a fan. Injury prone one trick pony (screen pass) IMO. I think he was over drafted with Bell around.

Andre Williams: miss, I drafted him a lot. I bought into the preseason hype and then the HOF game put me on full tilt as I didn’t think Jennings was all that and a bag of chips (which he isn’t), but I thought Williams had the goods to maybe be the SOD in many drafts.

Martin: Hit….I have always passed, he is not very good. Same with Gerhart, his price was just too high for the lack of talent every time I had a chance to snag him, glad I passed as he could have really screwed up some drafts.

Blount/Donald Brown: I thought both of these guys would eat into the pie a little more than they have even without injury to the guy in front of them, so I dialed in on them in many of the survivors. I was wrong.

WR:

Antonio Brown/Cobb/Hilton/Maclin: I lumped all these guys together to make up my biggest swing and miss package. Probably had the chance to draft all of these guys at a pretty decent price and I passed on them most of the time. I honestly didn’t think Brown had the goods and the size to maintain production, I was wrong. Kind of felt the same way about Cobb, wasn’t sure if it was really him or just playing with Rodgers in that system. Hilton, like Bush I kind of thought he was a one trick pony, but he has developed into a pretty complete receiver. And Maclin, man I just didn’t see him coming back that strong. Kinda like Richardson, when teams let a player go, in this case Jackson, I probably need to pay a little more attention to why they felt comfortable in doing so. In Richardson’s case, he just ain’t that good. In DeSean Jackson’s case, maybe PHI knew what they had coming back in Maclin and I didn’t pay close enough attention.

Keenan Allen: (hit IMO)I passed on him every time at his price and glad I did. He is still a good fantasy player, but I thought his price was too high. Things fell right for him last year and he had a few nice games in the fantasy playoffs that inflated his value as kind of a hangover affect for some owners chasing stats. And if he didn’t get into the end zone in some of the games where he only had a couple catches, things probably would have been different in terms of where he got drafted.

Kendall Wright: I am gonna call it a push but I should probably like him more than I do. I still think his ADP was a little high for the production you get. I missed on Justin Hunter, I thought he might be the second coming of Terrell Owens (and maybe things will get better) but he is really just teasing us like Jared Cook or Devin Aromashodu.

Pretty glad I passed on Tavon Austin and Kenny Stills.

As a whole, I need to pay more attention and maybe gamble a little more on rookies. I tend to avoid and keep things pretty close to the vest and stick to the veteran route, but there is some value with rookies if you hit, that has been a pretty big miss for me.

TE:

Green: I thought he would be the real deal THIS year. I was wrong.

Gronk: should have snagged him more than I did, he is proving to be value where guys got him.

Vernon Davis: glad I stayed away for the most part and didn’t chase last year’s TD numbers.

Delanie Walker: miss…..he has become a pretty good football/fantasy player, and some value for where he was drafted. Should have given him more credit for a solid year last year. You could be doing worse if he is your TE1.

With the way things have gone this year I think there is still something to be said for taking a stud QB early for the most part in the leagues in here. Lot of season left, so many things can change. Good luck in the second half boys (just in your home leagues, not the ones in here).

:banned:

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Agree with you on the shark pool vs mock draft forum comparison. I used to frequent the pool a lot more but over the past 3-4 years I almost exclusively hang out here. Such a knowledgeable and great group of people here. Thanks for the read.

Patterson has to be my biggest miss of the year. I was very against the idea of taking him in the first 4 rounds for most of the off season but started to buy into the hype in late August and bought heavily those last couple of weeks of drafting.

Biggest hits are Murray and Brown. I regularly took them 1/2 if I was drafting towards the end. Those guys will win me a lot of mfl10s this season.

I'm sure I'm not the first to recognize this, but wow are most of those mfl10 drafts a cakewalk after running through the gauntlet of 16 team survivor leagues here.

Can't wait for the WSLs! :)

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Agree with you on the shark pool vs mock draft forum comparison. I used to frequent the pool a lot more but over the past 3-4 years I almost exclusively hang out here. Such a knowledgeable and great group of people here. Thanks for the read.

Patterson has to be my biggest miss of the year. I was very against the idea of taking him in the first 4 rounds for most of the off season but started to buy into the hype in late August and bought heavily those last couple of weeks of drafting.

Biggest hits are Murray and Brown. I regularly took them 1/2 if I was drafting towards the end. Those guys will win me a lot of mfl10s this season.

I'm sure I'm not the first to recognize this, but wow are most of those mfl10 drafts a cakewalk after running through the gauntlet of 16 team survivor leagues here.

Can't wait for the WSLs! :)

what is ths mfl10's you speak of.....ref always looking for areas of expansion

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Agree with you on the shark pool vs mock draft forum comparison. I used to frequent the pool a lot more but over the past 3-4 years I almost exclusively hang out here. Such a knowledgeable and great group of people here. Thanks for the read.

Patterson has to be my biggest miss of the year. I was very against the idea of taking him in the first 4 rounds for most of the off season but started to buy into the hype in late August and bought heavily those last couple of weeks of drafting.

Biggest hits are Murray and Brown. I regularly took them 1/2 if I was drafting towards the end. Those guys will win me a lot of mfl10s this season.

I'm sure I'm not the first to recognize this, but wow are most of those mfl10 drafts a cakewalk after running through the gauntlet of 16 team survivor leagues here.

Can't wait for the WSLs! :)

what is ths mfl10's you speak of.....ref always looking for areas of expansion

I would like to hear some more about this as well.

I am presuming that the 10 means 10 teams drafting. So obviously drafting 16 is much more challenging. The player base drafting here may be of a higher quality than the people drafting in these as well, but I have not participated in them, so I do not know for sure.

From a game theory stand point I think drafting 14 or more teams is more challenging than 10 or 12 without factoring in the competition.

As far as hits or misses as SR describes in the OP I think I got several of the same ones wrong. For example Brown and Hilton are players I have found reasons to write off over the past couple seasons and I could not be more wrong about them and will be changing my perspective on those players moving forward.

For me I had RG3 rated too highly for the 2014 season. I thought Grudens offense would be a big boon to him and he would build on how well he performed as a rookie. He may still end up doing that, but his progress has been greatly delayed by injury and lack of practice time.

At RB my biggest mistake is obviously Adrian Peterson. It would be very difficult for someone else to be more tuned in to the Vikings than I am and I never saw this coming. I bet there are a few who might have known about this prior to the news being announced but not many. I had Peterson competing for the number 1 RB in 2014 as I expected him to catch the ball quite a bit more than he has previously in his career. Instead he has been a big zero and I feel somewhat sorry for Norv Turner having the rug pulled out from under him at the RB position the last 2 seasons.

I have been wrong about Murray for quite some time now. Mainly just because I do not like the Cowboys. I did some reading about him last year and learned about what a great HS prospect he was (5 stars) going into college but the needle on him didn't move enough despite that. So the main thing I am trying to learn from this is to not let my bias for certain teams keep me from recognizing talent and opportunity. I expected the Cowboys to have a resurgence on offense in 2014 because they were dead last in total plays run in 2013 with 957. So progression to the mean alone should have led to improvement for their offense. I also think the addition of Scott Linehan was a good sign. I expected more up tempo which addresses the total plays issue. I just expected the Cowboys to throw the ball a lot more than they have. Based on run/pass ratio with Detroit, the Rams and Vikings with Linehan before. So far not so much. Furthermore I was not alone in thinking the Cowboys defense would be one of the worst in the league, thus meaning the Cowboys would be forced to pass the ball more in chase situations and not be able to run as much.

NOPE

I was very wrong about CJ Spiller as well. I love Spillers talent and he exceeded my expectations for him with his performance in 2012. I also thought the Bills would run the ball a ton as they did last year providing more opportunity for RB than most teams. Part of that is correct however Spiller never really got the chance to be featured enough with Doug Marone. When he did get his opportunity he got injured in the same game. It sounded like he was laughing when he got injured actually. Like murphys law with him.

Trent Richardson is making a new definition for bust. Maybe he can get it together later in his career like Thomas Jones and a few other RBs have before. But if he does it will likely be on someone elses team than mine.

I will try to come back to this and share some more mistakes/reflections later on.

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Oh man you guys don't know about the MFL 10s(and 25 and 50 and 100s)?

They are 12 team draft only best ball total points leagues. $10 entry for the 10s. Winner take all - for the 10s that's $100. 2nd place gets a free entry in a league the following season.

MFL 10s

There are leagues with in season management but I just do the draftmasters style leagues. I do at least a dozen or so every offseason.

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Agree with you on the shark pool vs mock draft forum comparison. I used to frequent the pool a lot more but over the past 3-4 years I almost exclusively hang out here. Such a knowledgeable and great group of people here. Thanks for the read.

Patterson has to be my biggest miss of the year. I was very against the idea of taking him in the first 4 rounds for most of the off season but started to buy into the hype in late August and bought heavily those last couple of weeks of drafting.

Biggest hits are Murray and Brown. I regularly took them 1/2 if I was drafting towards the end. Those guys will win me a lot of mfl10s this season.

I'm sure I'm not the first to recognize this, but wow are most of those mfl10 drafts a cakewalk after running through the gauntlet of 16 team survivor leagues here.

Can't wait for the WSLs! :)

Joined four MFL10's. In first in 2, second in 1, and 4th in the last. MUCH easier than the typical FBG survivor league.

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Would be hilarious if next year you guys do mfl 10s and find 3-4 guys from here in them.

oh thats already happened. I've seen BroadwayG in a couple. I'm in the lead in one over both both @4for4_John and JayWood in one!

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I'm not having a particularly good season with them, but it's still a sweet setup.

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Back to the hits and misses...

My misses:

QB - Luck and Foles, thought the first would regress thought the second was underrated

RB - Foster - thought the injuries would be much worse and avoided him like the plague, Stacy I had high hopes for

WR - B Marshall has been maddingly inconsistent, Cordarelle I was excited about

TE - Thought Ertz would be sneaky awesome

My hits:

RB - Bradshaw in the 20th of WSL1 helped power me to the final 5 (and Blount got me to the Final 4 - thanks for oversleeping Mr. Gray), loved Demarco and he has paid off in general and especially vs. his slot

WR - Boldin, J Mathews, Malcom Floyd have all outperformed for me this year

TE - passing on Cameron

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