What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

Official Hillary Clinton 2016 thread (2 Viewers)

Status
Not open for further replies.
David Dodds said:
I suspect the polls are wrong.  Nothing against Nate Silver's site.  It's impressive and how I would forecast as well.  But we have never seen a game-changer like we are seeing play out in the end like this.  And yes I read his article talking about the late game-changers. They were all on 1-2 where this is closer to a 9 (on a ten-point scale).  I don't think the polls are capturing the anti-Hillary vote all that well.  It is surging.  
Click to expand...
Based on?

 
the moops said:
538 has Hillary back up in FL.

Still having a tough time figuring out a Trump victory looking at the map. I can envision a tie though, which would be such a fitting outcome for this #### show.

Although for that to happen, Trump needs to win FL, NC, NV, and NH
Click to expand...
If he pulls off NH and wins Maine's 2nd he would get to 270. 

If he really wanted to win he would dump every penny into NH since pulling that upset is his best path to victory.

 
Quez said:
I'm fairly confident Trump takes FL.  He is getting huge turnouts at rally's here.  Hers... Not so much...  In the hundreds, and guaranteed a few "bill Clinton is a rapist" posters.
Click to expand...
I don't know about rally's but I just see him having a hard time losing any NASCAR states.

 
David Dodds said:
I suspect the polls are wrong.  Nothing against Nate Silver's site.  It's impressive and how I would forecast as well.  But we have never seen a game-changer like we are seeing play out in the end like this.  And yes I read his article talking about the late game-changers. They were all on 1-2 where this is closer to a 9 (on a ten-point scale).  I don't think the polls are capturing the anti-Hillary vote all that well.  It is surging.  
Click to expand...
You might want to consider the possibility that if you hang out in reddit message boards and an almost exclusively white male fantasy football-linked message board, your perspective on this election might be skewed a little bit. My twitter feed suggests a massive Clinton landslide is coming, and a stroll around my neighborhood suggests that the biggest issue for most Americans is DC Statehood, but I'm pretty sure those aren't reliable indicators.

 
NCCommish said:
The religious right is pro-Armageddon, not pro-Jew. They want the final battle so bad they can taste it. Kind of like how they are pro-fetus not pro-child.
Click to expand...
:bs:

It's crap like this that makes it hard for me as a religious person to support the left. 

 
David Dodds said:
I suspect the polls are wrong.  Nothing against Nate Silver's site.  It's impressive and how I would forecast as well.  But we have never seen a game-changer like we are seeing play out in the end like this.  And yes I read his article talking about the late game-changers. They were all on 1-2 where this is closer to a 9 (on a ten-point scale).  I don't think the polls are capturing the anti-Hillary vote all that well.  It is surging.  
Click to expand...
I think the polls are wrong in several ways. I think the latino vote is being under counted in polling. I think the African American vote has been over counted as the suppression tactics the GOP put in place are working to a degree. I also think the female vote is being undercounted. I think women are saying one thing in public, especially if hubby is a trumpkin, and they are going to do another at the polls. I even think some evangelicals are going to go Hillary, quietly of course. I don't know what all that will mean other than a very bumpy ride to the conclusion of this craptacular.

 
David Dodds said:
I suspect the polls are wrong.  Nothing against Nate Silver's site.  It's impressive and how I would forecast as well.  But we have never seen a game-changer like we are seeing play out in the end like this.  And yes I read his article talking about the late game-changers. They were all on 1-2 where this is closer to a 9 (on a ten-point scale).  I don't think the polls are capturing the anti-Hillary vote all that well.  It is surging.  
Click to expand...
Surging from the Trump supporters? 

 
tommyboy said:
i think you're being overly excitable.  for several reasons.   The right in this country is pro- Jew.    Its the left that is anti jew.    secondly, this is a nation of 300 Million guns, no one is going to be able to successfully disarm the population to the point where you could force jews into cattle cars.   third, Trump wouldn't have the power to do anything like what you seem to fear, and most likely would be assassinated or impeached before any of your supposed fears could be fulfilled.
Click to expand...
Also, we need the cattle cars for cattle.

 
Slapdash said:
Based on?
Click to expand...
Just a hunch. Twitter search term popularity, Facebook trends, Less Hillary supporters actually supporting her via policy (mostly discussion about how bad Trump is), this thread, WikiLeaks adding so many followers, Media in panic over FBI reopening, friends of mine all defecting from DNC despite voting that way their whole life.  

Nothing concrete at all,  But just a feeling that this is Brexit voting all over again where the polls do not have a pulse to the anger.  

 
rascal said:
:bs:

It's crap like this that makes it hard for me as a religious person to support the left. 
Click to expand...
Sorry the truth hurts. Right wing Evangelicals constantly talk about how Israel is key to Armageddon. You actually have groups trying to breed a red bull to fulfill prophesy as they see it as just one example.

And though they think every child should be born they tend vote for people who want to do nothing for them once they are.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
David Dodds said:
I suspect the polls are wrong.  Nothing against Nate Silver's site.  It's impressive and how I would forecast as well.  But we have never seen a game-changer like we are seeing play out in the end like this.  And yes I read his article talking about the late game-changers. They were all on 1-2 where this is closer to a 9 (on a ten-point scale).  I don't think the polls are capturing the anti-Hillary vote all that well.  It is surging.  
Click to expand...
i dont' suspect the polls are wrong.

but I do suspect that losing  13 points in 8 days is a significant hemorrage and probably spells doom.    that being said, neither candidate is desirable and nothing that happens on Nov 8 would surprise me

 
NCCommish said:
Sorry the truth hurts. Right wing Evangelicals constantly talk about how Israel is key to Armageddon. You actually have groups trying to breed a red bull to fulfill prophesy as they see it as just one example.

And though they think every child should be born they tend vote for people who want to do nothing for them once they are.
Click to expand...
you gonna use snake charmers as proof of right wing evangelicals?    just stop.

 
David Dodds said:
Just a hunch. Twitter search term popularity, Facebook trends, Less Hillary supporters actually supporting her via policy (mostly discussion about how bad Trump is), this thread, WikiLeaks adding so many followers, Media in panic over FBI reopening, friends of mine all defecting from DNC despite voting that way their whole life.  

Nothing concrete at all,  But just a feeling that this is Brexit voting all over again where the polls do not have a pulse to the anger.  
Click to expand...
Probably telling you what you want to hear.  I must have talked to a dozen Uber drivers over the past week and no one has admitted they or anyone they have picked up would vote for Trump (even after I initially said how terrible I think Hillary is).  The only two Republican drivers I talked to were former military, one said she wasn't voting and the other said he was writing in Colin Powell (as he did in the primary).

 
NCCommish said:
I think the polls are wrong in several ways. I think the latino vote is being under counted in polling. I think the African American vote has been over counted as the suppression tactics the GOP put in place are working to a degree. I also think the female vote is being undercounted. I think women are saying one thing in public, especially if hubby is a trumpkin, and they are going to do another at the polls. I even think some evangelicals are going to go Hillary, quietly of course. I don't know what all that will mean other than a very bumpy ride to the conclusion of this craptacular.
Click to expand...
I think the SID2006-style Republicans who are absolutely disgusted by Trump will carry this for Hillary.

 
David Dodds said:
Just a hunch. Twitter search term popularity, Facebook trends, Less Hillary supporters actually supporting her via policy (mostly discussion about how bad Trump is), this thread, WikiLeaks adding so many followers, Media in panic over FBI reopening, friends of mine all defecting from DNC despite voting that way their whole life.  

Nothing concrete at all,  But just a feeling that this is Brexit voting all over again where the polls do not have a pulse to the anger.  
Click to expand...
I'm about as anti Trump as one can get but have not posted one thing in my FB page, I don't have a Twitter account, I don't have a H -> sign in my yard, I haven't attended any rallies, I don't have a bumper sticker, etc. I'm not angry. I'm quite happy with my life, and will be casting my vote for Hillary. There are many of us ... It's just not an outlandish display that some of these Trumpkins like to do. 

 
NCCommish said:
Sorry the truth hurts. Right wing Evangelicals constantly talk about how Israel is key to Armageddon. You actually have groups trying to breed a red bull to fulfill prophesy as they see it as just one example.

And though they think every child should be born they tend vote for people who want to do nothing for them once they are.
Click to expand...
If Christians don't believe this, google 'Megiddo tours'.

 
beavers said:
I'm about as anti Trump as one can get but have not posted one thing in my FB page, I don't have a Twitter account, I don't have a H -> sign in my yard, I haven't attended any rallies, I don't have a bumper sticker, etc. I'm not angry. I'm quite happy with my life, and will be casting my vote for Hillary. There are many of us ... It's just not an outlandish display that some of these Trumpkins like to do. 
Click to expand...
This.

 
Joe Summer said:
Sinn Fein:
 

Yes, we can all point to Michigan as an outlier. But that was just one state and it wasn't very thoroughly polled (at least one of the poll companies used landlines only, which significantly reduced the number of younger respondents). But we've got literally thousands of Clinton-Trump polls, hundreds of which utilize the latest technologies and methods available in the world of polling. Taken together, they point to a strong electoral lead for Clinton.

A Trump victory would require the equivalent of 5 Michigans happening at the same time on the same day. Actually, that's not even a very good analogy because most of the battleground states have been polled more thoroughly than the Michigan primary was polled.

Anyway, it may not be impossible, but it's very, very, very unlikely.
Click to expand...
Its unlikely - yes  But, its closer than you think.

He does not need 5 Michigans.

Florida - RCP average = +1

Ohio - RCP average = +2.5

North Carolina - RCP average = +0.7

Nevada - RCP = +1.6

Arizona - RCP average = +3.0

Iowa - RCP average = +1.4

Colorado RCP average = -2.4

New Hampshire - RCP average = -4.7

Trump needs one Michigan from Colorado or New Hampshire and he wins...and he has momentum right now...its still an uphill battle for him, but it is not impossible.  If he swings an actual Michigan victory, the election is probably over at that point.

 
beavers said:
I'm about as anti Trump as one can get but have not posted one thing in my FB page, I don't have a Twitter account, I don't have a H -> sign in my yard, I haven't attended any rallies, I don't have a bumper sticker, etc. I'm not angry. I'm quite happy with my life, and will be casting my vote for Hillary. There are many of us ... It's just not an outlandish display that some of these Trumpkins like to do. 
Click to expand...
Co-sign.

 
I think the silent vote is skewing towards Trump.  This is what I think the polls are missing.  If you asked 100 people on the street who they were voting for, my hunch is that those results would be higher than the actual voting results by those same 100.  It's not controversial to say - I am taking the lesser of the evils and backing Hillary.  Saying you are voting for Trump, gets raised eyebrows or worse.  So people in that camp are a silent unreported group. Some saying they are undecided.  Some saying Hillary just to avoid answering the question.  

Again no proof.  Quite possible that HRC wins a landslide.  But I won't be very shocked when the news that Nate Silver was very wrong in multiple states. 

 
cstu said:
Probably telling you what you want to hear.  I must have talked to a dozen Uber drivers over the past week and no one has admitted they or anyone they have picked up would vote for Trump (even after I initially said how terrible I think Hillary is).  The only two Republican drivers I talked to were former military, one said she wasn't voting and the other said he was writing in Colin Powell (as he did in the primary).
Click to expand...
Maybe the current polling isn't reflecting the preferences of Uber drivers enough.

 
SacramentoBob said:
I think the SID2006-style Republicans who are absolutely disgusted by Trump will carry this for Hillary.
Click to expand...
I think this is where the FBI investigation hurts Clinton the most.  Yes, these Republicans can't stand Trump, but then they are smacked in the face with an on-going Clinton scandal, and it will push them towards holding their nose and voting against Hillary.

 
David Dodds said:
I think the silent vote is skewing towards Trump.  This is what I think the polls are missing.  If you asked 100 people on the street who they were voting for, my hunch is that those results would be higher than the actual voting results by those same 100.  It's not controversial to say - I am taking the lesser of the evils and backing Hillary.  Saying you are voting for Trump, gets raised eyebrows or worse.  So people in that camp are a silent unreported group. Some saying they are undecided.  Some saying Hillary just to avoid answering the question.  

Again no proof.  Quite possible that HRC wins a landslide.  But I won't be very shocked when the news that Nate Silver was very wrong in multiple states. 
Click to expand...
So the people who enthusiastically announced their support of Trump to pollsters in the primaries are now afraid to do the same? OK.

 
David Dodds said:
I think the silent vote is skewing towards Trump.  This is what I think the polls are missing.  If you asked 100 people on the street who they were voting for, my hunch is that those results would be higher than the actual voting results by those same 100.  It's not controversial to say - I am taking the lesser of the evils and backing Hillary.  Saying you are voting for Trump, gets raised eyebrows or worse.  So people in that camp are a silent unreported group. Some saying they are undecided.  Some saying Hillary just to avoid answering the question.  

Again no proof.  Quite possible that HRC wins a landslide.  But I won't be very shocked when the news that Nate Silver was very wrong in multiple states. 
Click to expand...
I think it's quite the opposite.  I think there are a lot of women who say they'll vote for Trump when their husbands or fathers are listening.  

 
David Dodds said:
I think the silent vote is skewing towards Trump.  This is what I think the polls are missing.  If you asked 100 people on the street who they were voting for, my hunch is that those results would be higher than the actual voting results by those same 100.  It's not controversial to say - I am taking the lesser of the evils and backing Hillary.  Saying you are voting for Trump, gets raised eyebrows or worse.  So people in that camp are a silent unreported group. Some saying they are undecided.  Some saying Hillary just to avoid answering the question.  

Again no proof.  Quite possible that HRC wins a landslide.  But I won't be very shocked when the news that Nate Silver was very wrong in multiple states. 
Click to expand...
The most recent poll in Florida, that includes early votes, has Clinton winning by a wide margin with some fairly strong GOP support. Up 8 percent. That is inline with polling before the latest scandal. 28% of early GOP voters voted Clinton so far. 8% of early Democrats voted Trump.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
David Dodds said:
Just a hunch. Twitter search term popularity, Facebook trends, Less Hillary supporters actually supporting her via policy (mostly discussion about how bad Trump is), this thread, WikiLeaks adding so many followers, Media in panic over FBI reopening, friends of mine all defecting from DNC despite voting that way their whole life.  

Nothing concrete at all,  But just a feeling that this is Brexit voting all over again where the polls do not have a pulse to the anger.  
Click to expand...
How much of the country is angry though?  Maybe 25%?

 
David Dodds said:
I think the silent vote is skewing towards Trump.  This is what I think the polls are missing.  If you asked 100 people on the street who they were voting for, my hunch is that those results would be higher than the actual voting results by those same 100.  It's not controversial to say - I am taking the lesser of the evils and backing Hillary.  Saying you are voting for Trump, gets raised eyebrows or worse.  So people in that camp are a silent unreported group. Some saying they are undecided.  Some saying Hillary just to avoid answering the question.  

Again no proof.  Quite possible that HRC wins a landslide.  But I won't be very shocked when the news that Nate Silver was very wrong in multiple states. 
Click to expand...
All the Brexit polling showed remains would win, but the leave vote was driven by the same types of people who would vote for Trump.  So it's possible the polls miss big on this, but I wouldn't put money down on it.

 
Sinn Fein said:
I think this is where the FBI investigation hurts Clinton the most.  Yes, these Republicans can't stand Trump, but then they are smacked in the face with an on-going Clinton scandal, and it will push them towards holding their nose and voting against Hillary.
Click to expand...
I haven't seen any evidence of a shift in that particular demographic.

 
Sinn Fein said:
Its unlikely - yes  But, its closer than you think.

He does not need 5 Michigans.

Florida - RCP average = +1

Ohio - RCP average = +2.5

North Carolina - RCP average = +0.7

Nevada - RCP = +1.6

Arizona - RCP average = +3.0

Iowa - RCP average = +1.4

Colorado RCP average = -2.4

New Hampshire - RCP average = -4.7

Trump needs one Michigan from Colorado or New Hampshire and he wins...and he has momentum right now...its still an uphill battle for him, but it is not impossible.  If he swings an actual Michigan victory, the election is probably over at that point.
Click to expand...
He needs every close state and either Colorado or NH/Maine 2nd district.

Maine's 2nd district could decide the election because there are a bunch of ways this could end in a tie.

 
So if that trend is holding in early voting other places she still has a shot. 92% of the Democratic vote plus 20+% of the GOP vote would offset minority vote losses due to laws meant to accomplish just that.

 
SacramentoBob said:
All the Brexit polling showed remains would win, but the leave vote was driven by the same types of people who would vote for Trump.  So it's possible the polls miss big on this, but I wouldn't put money down on it.
Click to expand...
Brexit was a great thing to happen to Hillary.  A repeat of it here is in the mind's of every person concerned about a Trump victory.

 
cstu said:
Probably telling you what you want to hear.  I must have talked to a dozen Uber drivers over the past week and no one has admitted they or anyone they have picked up would vote for Trump (even after I initially said how terrible I think Hillary is).  The only two Republican drivers I talked to were former military, one said she wasn't voting and the other said he was writing in Colin Powell (as he did in the primary).
Click to expand...
So the to drunk drive car is firmly in the Hillary camp.

 
There is a fringe group that loves Trump. There is a fringe group that loves Clinton.  These groups see nothing wrong with their side.  My guess is this represents at most 30% of the voters.  It's the other 70% where polling is likely missing the real pulse.  

Bernie and Trump drew record crowds this election cycle. These are candidates saying to BLOW UP THE SYSTEM.  This last week has given people more reasons to blow up the system.  Don't be shocked when that happens.   Michael Moore said it best.  A vote for Trump is the ultimate F U.  And he said the people he talks to in Ohio, Detroit, etc who have lost everything might just be willing to do that on election day.  

 
IvanKaramazov said:
squistion said:
Actually, most Hillary supporters didn't even click on the link after being told it starts getting really good from page 21 on.
Click to expand...
Of course you don't.  Hillary supporters have been keeping their heads in the sand for two years.  Why change now?
Click to expand...


Andy Dufresne said:
squistion said:
Maybe, but if you ask people to read 21+ pages of something, few will comply - not saying they shouldn't, but that is asking too much of an investment of one's time if you are trying to convince people of whatever position you have on any issue.
Click to expand...
Should we tweet it?
Click to expand...
Well...FINALLY!!!!!  We get to some of his posts that produce favorable comments :thumbup:  

 
Henry Ford said:
I think it's quite the opposite.  I think there are a lot of women who say they'll vote for Trump when their husbands or fathers are listening.  
Click to expand...
Anecdotally, I don't see that locally.  I see the wives who are openly supporting Clinton, while the husbands are a bit more demur about who they are supporting - not wanting to acknowledge voting for Trump.  Our neighborhood is pretty heavily slanted republican, and most yard signs are supporting Andy Barr, our local congressman, and local GOP candidates, and an occasional Rand Paul sign - despite the fact that Rand's opponent is a very popular Democratic Mayor from Lexington. 

 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Similar threads

mr. furley
Long Island serial killer suspect in custody
Replies
34
Views
1K
Dezbelief
Dezbelief
krista4
In this thread I rank my favorite Beatles songs: 204-1.
138 139 140
Replies
7K
Views
191K
Pip's Invitation
Pip's Invitation
HellToupee
***Official*** Joe Biden 2016 Presidential Thread
Replies
35
Views
1K
That one guy
T

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 3 (members: 0, guests: 3)
Top