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Chris Hogan, WR (1 Viewer)

Raider Nation

Devil's Advocate
I'm pretty surprised this guy doesn't have a thread yet. He's not exactly Jerry Rice, but he's quietly been extremely viable in PPR leagues over the past month. He's the clear #2 behind Sammy now. Orton looks to him to move the chains, and he's also getting some RZ targets. These are his numbers over the past five games, not including his one clunker.

9-74

7-57-1

6-63

6-72

It's like the guy is invisible. His ownership across the board is sitting at a robust ~2%. You could certainly do worse than Hogan, given some of the bums I'm seeing in PPR lineups lately. As an example, (and I'm setting myself up for public ridicule here), I'm starting him on Monday night in a deep league over the terribly inconsistent Michael Floyd, who figures to be staring at Sherman all day long if Fitz is out.

BTW, you may recall that he got the '7-11' nickname from Reggie Bush on Hard Knocks (Dolphins edition) because he was always open.

 
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According to the Shark Pool, I think everyone has a mix of Demaryius, Calvin, Gordon, Beckham, Martavis Bryant, and Mike Evans, the last four of whom magically fell to them in the eighth to eleventh round of their drafts. I mean, who needs '7-11' when you've got Super Mart?

 
Picked this guy up in most of my dynasties a couple weeks ago, but still don't know what I think about him -- he's got a weird set of measurables.

He looks a lot like Junior Hemingway, and has the measurables of a small WR in a huge WR's body. Could be a nice mix, but there's not really anyone to compare him to. Best comp outside Hemingway might be Hakeem Nicks. Or not -- nothing really fits.

But he's interesting for sure and the fact that he's turned 12 catches at Monmouth into a starting gig in the NFL and looks like he can get open at will is a pretty good reason to interpret the numbers in the best way possible.

 
So is he playing behind Woods? Or the slot?

This is old from training camp:

Hogan experiment not over
- Sometimes in a training camp setting, head coaches will deliver messages to some of their more important players by giving their backups more time during practices and games just as an attempt to teach them a lesson. At first, that could have been the construed case for wide receiver Chris Hogan and second-year wideout Robert Woods. The latter has been thought of as a big part of the offensive attack for much of the offseason, but as of two weeks ago the Bills haven’t been using Woods with the first-team nearly as much as many were expecting. Instead, Hogan has been getting the majority of repetitions at slot receiver with the first team. Initially, Hogan’s rise could have just been to rile up Woods. However, Hogan just doesn’t want to seem to go away. His impressive play throughout training camp has him in a spot where he’s getting closer to lock territory for the 53-man roster. It will be especially safe if he continues to supplant Woods with the first-team offense.
http://www.wgr550.com/Bills-training-camp-observations--Day-17/9034669?pid=421251

 
Since Hogan started seeing real targets, he's got 29 in six games, while Woods has 35 in six. That's about the same usage rate Woods had before Hogan, so I don't think they're competing with each other.

 
wdcrob said:
Since Hogan started seeing real targets, he's got 29 in six games, while Woods has 35 in six. That's about the same usage rate Woods had before Hogan, so I don't think they're competing with each other.
Woods averaged 7.1 TPG through week 6 and 5.25 TPG the past four games (Hogan has 5.75 TPG in the past four).

Mike Williams has 1 target since week 6 after 18 the first 5 games.

It looks like Hogan has taken all of Williams' targets but might be cutting into Woods' also.

 
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Perhaps Reggie Bush’s lasting contribution from his time in Miami wasn’t his 1,000-yard season, but the clever nickname he gave a long-shot rookie wide receiver in 2012’s training camp.

Chris Hogan became a Hard Knocks celebrity when the reality TV show focused on his uncanny ability to make plays. Bush called Hogan “7-Eleven” — because he was “always open.”

That certainly seemed to be the case early Thursday night. Hogan, now a slot receiver for the Bills, had three third-down catches in the first half alone — helping Buffalo to field goals on each of its first two possessions.

The Bills’ PR staff even twisted the knife a bit, tweeting at one point: “Anyone know where to find a first down? Try Chris Hogan, he’s always open. #7Eleven”

Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/nfl/miami-dolphins/article3927495.html#storylink=cpy
 
In a 2RB 2WR 1TE 2FLEX league, I have a choice between Hogan and T Williams (Dal). I like the matchup vs the Jets better than the Giants, but that's nothing more than a tepid endorsement.

The nice thing is short stuff to the slot receiver is probably going to be the better substitute for a running game, because I don't see Brown and FJax going anywhere.

 
I think I'm starting him this week.

One note - he played defense at Syracuse for one year under Marrone:

During his time at Penn State he accumulated 71 points on 57 goals and 14 assists. However, he sat out his sophomore year because of an injury. Upon graduation, he decided to use the extra year of eligibility to return to football. Syracuse, led by Bills coach Doug Marrone at the time, heavily recruited him but because of complications with NCAA rules he went to Monmouth University, where he played mostly defense. He had just 12 receptions and three touchdowns on offense.

Hopefully frostbite doesn't develop before tomorrow night:

“My neighborhood was completely snowed in. There were no cars getting in or out. The only way to get to the stadium was to walk the roads,” Hogan said. “There were some tracks from four-wheelers and snowmobiles that I had to follow. So I went through that.”

Buffalo has taken a pounding over the past few days as record snowfalls have besieged the area. That led to the cancellation of all Bills practices Wednesday and Thursday as well as moving their game against the Jets from Sunday to Monday, and from Buffalo to Detroit. In order to catch the team flight to Detroit, Hogan had to walk through unplowed streets to get to the stadium.

He's one of the closest players to the facility, as it's normally a two-minute drive to the stadium, which also serves as the team's practice facility. But on Friday morning, Hogan walked 25 minutes with a packed gym bag on his back through the snow just to get to the stadium.

 
NE track record with FA WR isn't exactly confidence inspiring.  That said, for a team in need of depth at WR in dynasty, how much FAAB would you put in for Hogan on your off-season waiver wire?

 
Just picked him off waivers. I would be surprised if he made it through my final cut list, but more than willing to sit and learn.

 
Interesting thought experiment:

Player A's stats heading into free agency: 137 targets, 87 Receptions, 959 Yards, 11.0 YPR, 20.0 YPG

Player B's stats heading into free agency:  152 targets, 96 Receptions, 1,121 Yards, 11.7 YPR, 24.9 YPG

Player A?  Chris Hogan with Buffalo

Player B? Wes Welker with Miami

In each case, Belichick is identifying an underutilized receiving asset from a division opponent as a RFA, who has given the Pats defense fits in the past. With Edelman's injury history and road wear, I'll be targeting Hogan in PPR leagues in the mid-to-late rounds of drafts. He's got the potential to be a steal.

 
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just added him in my dynasty league as a potential last keeper, im not expecting to much from him but he could be a lottery ticket and im hoping to cash in on it

 
Workhorse said:
Interesting thought experiment:

Player A's stats heading into free agency: 137 targets, 87 Receptions, 959 Yards, 11.0 YPR, 20.0 YPG

Player B's stats heading into free agency:  152 targets, 96 Receptions, 1,121 Yards, 11.7 YPR, 24.9 YPG

Player A?  Chris Hogan with Buffalo

Player B? Wes Welker with Miami

In each case, Belichick is identifying an underutilized receiving asset from a division opponent as a RFA, who has given the Pats defense fits in the past. With Edelman's injury history and road wear, I'll be targeting Hogan in PPR leagues in the mid-to-late rounds of drafts. He's got the potential to be a steal.
The Welker-always-gave-NE-fits-so-they-traded-for-him stuff never really happened. Welker caught 14 catches for 157 yards and 0 TD in 6 games against the Patriots. He had one game with 9 catches, so that tells you all you need to know about the other 5 games.

In 6 games against NE, Hogan compiled 13-181-1. He had one or two decent games (and the rest he was invisible).

Welker was brought in to take over the slot for Troy Brown, I'm not sure what the Pats plan is for Hogan, but they already have Edelman and Amendola (well, at least for now). They also extended Keyshawn Martin, who also is mostly an underneath / short yardage / slot type.

At this point, if folks have roster space to burn in dynasty leagues he is a speculative add. I think the Pats will bring in other options (how good, how young, or how old, who knows).

I don't see myself investing a mid round redraft pick on him just yet, as that will probably end up being a reach. He could easily end up being the WR 3 or 4 in NE, but that will end up making him the 5th or 6th receiving option when you factor in Gronk and Lewis.

 
The Welker-always-gave-NE-fits-so-they-traded-for-him stuff never really happened. Welker caught 14 catches for 157 yards and 0 TD in 6 games against the Patriots. He had one game with 9 catches, so that tells you all you need to know about the other 5 games.

In 6 games against NE, Hogan compiled 13-181-1. He had one or two decent games (and the rest he was invisible).

Welker was brought in to take over the slot for Troy Brown, I'm not sure what the Pats plan is for Hogan, but they already have Edelman and Amendola (well, at least for now). They also extended Keyshawn Martin, who also is mostly an underneath / short yardage / slot type.

At this point, if folks have roster space to burn in dynasty leagues he is a speculative add. I think the Pats will bring in other options (how good, how young, or how old, who knows).

I don't see myself investing a mid round redraft pick on him just yet, as that will probably end up being a reach. He could easily end up being the WR 3 or 4 in NE, but that will end up making him the 5th or 6th receiving option when you factor in Gronk and Lewis.
They are not paying ~5M in 2016 to be their 4th WR...  Could he suck, not pan our etc and fall to 4th?  Yes, but that would be a failure of BB.  

They are absolutely paying him to be their 2nd or 3rd, depending on what they do with Dola.. 

 
They are not paying ~5M in 2016 to be their 4th WR...  Could he suck, not pan our etc and fall to 4th?  Yes, but that would be a failure of BB.  

They are absolutely paying him to be their 2nd or 3rd, depending on what they do with Dola.. 
I don't care what they are paying him, cause once the season gets kicked off no one cares what you get paid. Amendola has been the highest paid Pats receiver since he came to town, does that make him their WR1?

As of now, the pecking order is Edelman, Gronk, Lewis, Amendola, then Hogan or Martin. In half a season with NE, Martin put up 24-269-2 coming in off the street without training camp with the team. He probably got more playing time with other receiving options banged up, but Martin could be a 50 catch, 500+ yards, handful of TDs guy. Thinks can change and Amendola could get cut, which obviously would help Hogan. For right now, it seems like the entire NE WR corps have similar skill sets and play similar roles to one another.

NE will likely add someone else like Streater, Boldin, James Jones, or Rueben Randle. The only thing Hogan really earned right now is first crack at playing time given that they are giving him $5 million this year, but who knows how well he picks up the offense and how he gels with Brady. Hogan is in the mix for playing time, but I don't think it is going to be a fantasy WR2-3 at this point.

That's why I always say we will know more come opening day (even though I realize fantasy owners can't wait that long for things to shape up).

 
I don't care what they are paying him, cause once the season gets kicked off no one cares what you get paid. Amendola has been the highest paid Pats receiver since he came to town, does that make him their WR1?

As of now, the pecking order is Edelman, Gronk, Lewis, Amendola, then Hogan or Martin. In half a season with NE, Martin put up 24-269-2 coming in off the street without training camp with the team. He probably got more playing time with other receiving options banged up, but Martin could be a 50 catch, 500+ yards, handful of TDs guy. Thinks can change and Amendola could get cut, which obviously would help Hogan. For right now, it seems like the entire NE WR corps have similar skill sets and play similar roles to one another.

NE will likely add someone else like Streater, Boldin, James Jones, or Rueben Randle. The only thing Hogan really earned right now is first crack at playing time given that they are giving him $5 million this year, but who knows how well he picks up the offense and how he gels with Brady. Hogan is in the mix for playing time, but I don't think it is going to be a fantasy WR2-3 at this point.

That's why I always say we will know more come opening day (even though I realize fantasy owners can't wait that long for things to shape up).
It's almost as if you didn't read what I said, I never said he was brought in to be the WR1, or that Gronk, Edelman & Lewis wouldn't be ahead of him on the pecking order. 

My point was that they priotized their offseason money for him to come in and be their WR2 or WR3 (depending on dola) for their team.  I'm not saying he will definitely be that, he could suck as I said, but if he doesn't stick as their 2 or 3 then it was a waste of money and a bad move, which they dont make often.   If they bring in another FA WR it will be for less money, and a player they were less interested in.   Reuben Randle is about the biggest antithesis of a BB player there is, he has nothing upstairs and bad work ethic. 

Hogan has 2014 Lafell upside, and if the past is any indication of future success I'd be more comfortable slotting him in that kind of usage than being buried behind a Keyshawn Martin.

 
Hogan is a very intriguing cheap upside guy.  The Pat's have made similar talented players look good.  I agree with others that for a waiver wire pickup you can't go wrong.  

 
It's almost as if you didn't read what I said, I never said he was brought in to be the WR1, or that Gronk, Edelman & Lewis wouldn't be ahead of him on the pecking order. 

My point was that they priotized their offseason money for him to come in and be their WR2 or WR3 (depending on dola) for their team.  I'm not saying he will definitely be that, he could suck as I said, but if he doesn't stick as their 2 or 3 then it was a waste of money and a bad move, which they dont make often.   If they bring in another FA WR it will be for less money, and a player they were less interested in.   Reuben Randle is about the biggest antithesis of a BB player there is, he has nothing upstairs and bad work ethic. 

Hogan has 2014 Lafell upside, and if the past is any indication of future success I'd be more comfortable slotting him in that kind of usage than being buried behind a Keyshawn Martin.
Actually most of the Pats moves at WR for years have been bad moves.

 
Hogan is physically closer to LaFell  @ 6'1 220 than the small quick guys NE generally uses in the slot.  I suspect he is replacing Brandon LaFell versus being another slot guy. 

 
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Drafting yes.
Drafting for sure but most of the guys they've brought in as well. A few have worked out (some tremendously) but theres a long list of free agent busts led by Tory Holt, Ocho Cinco, Anyhony Gonzalez, Brandon Gibson, et. Al.

 
Drafting for sure but most of the guys they've brought in as well. A few have worked out (some tremendously) but theres a long list of free agent busts led by Tory Holt, Ocho Cinco, Anyhony Gonzalez, Brandon Gibson, et. Al.
The only one I would really classify as a bust is Ocho Cinco...not much was expected of the other guys so I really don't put them in the bust category (obviously they did not work out...I put Donald Hayes, Chad Jackson and Dobson as some names in the bust category because they came with legit expectations)...that being said you never know how a WR will do in New England until he actually plays here...it really is impossible to know...if they can't pick-up the system or earn Brady's trust they will fail quickly and there is a very long list of names from both the draft and free agency in that category...I am very cautiously optimistic about Hogan...he seems to have the potential to fit the profile of guys they have had success with (Brown, Welker, Edelman, Branch and Amendola to a lesser extent)...also, Hogan doesn't have to come in with unrealistic expectations...if he can do something in the ballpark of what LaFell did two years ago it would be a huge boost to this offense...I would still like to bring in one more veteran...someone like Boldin or James Jones...if that doesn't happen they will probably add one in the draft...

 
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Drafting for sure but most of the guys they've brought in as well. A few have worked out (some tremendously) but theres a long list of free agent busts led by Tory Holt, Ocho Cinco, Anyhony Gonzalez, Brandon Gibson, et. Al.
I concede, but this side argument really doesn't change my point at all.. I never said he'd be good or wouldn't be good, just that they brought him in to be their WR2 or WR3.   So I'm not inclined to argue a tangential side point. 

 
I concede, but this side argument really doesn't change my point at all.. I never said he'd be good or wouldn't be good, just that they brought him in to be their WR2 or WR3.   So I'm not inclined to argue a tangential side point. 
Yeah wasnt tryng to make it more than it is either. I actually think Hogan could turn out to be a sneaky good pick up. 

 
Yeah wasnt tryng to make it more than it is either. I actually think Hogan could turn out to be a sneaky good pick up. 
Say you had to bid on him in offseason waivers, with a year long budget that includes in season waivers, how much would you bid? 

 
Say you had to bid on him in offseason waivers, with a year long budget that includes in season waivers, how much would you bid? 
I think his value fantasy-wise is still in-flux...you need to see what they do with Amendola and what else they bring in at WR/TE/RB in free agency and the draft...still a lot of moving pieces right now...

 
I think his value fantasy-wise is still in-flux...you need to see what they do with Amendola and what else they bring in at WR/TE/RB in free agency and the draft...still a lot of moving pieces right now...
Say you had to.. :D

 
I don't think anyone is realistically considering NE might actually just roll out 3 shifty receivers, but I think its a possibility. They looked more than fine when Dola, Jules and Martin were all on the field.

Hogan is a slightly above average, measurables wise at 6'1" 220 - 4.5 forty. NE now running the gamut of scrappy white gym rats.

Dola might not be staying, I'm assuming NE is gonna ask him to take another paycut. If he does stay adding Hogan still provides a competitive 3rd WR and depth for Jules/Dola who might have the worst tandem injury histories.

He has deceptive speed.

 
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Say you had to bid on him in offseason waivers, with a year long budget that includes in season waivers, how much would you bid? 
Toss a dollar on him if you have the roster space, and hope the other sharks in your league are still on vacation?

 
tone1oc said:
Say you had to bid on him in offseason waivers, with a year long budget that includes in season waivers, how much would you bid? 
In leagues I'm in with fresh 1,000 budgets (all teams have nearly their full budgets since we just began the new year), he was available in a some of them (26 man rosters, PPR) and blind bids processed last night.  These are two-conference leagues and three leagues total, so he was available in 4 of 6 total places.  The winning bids were 78  33  26  and  26.  I was in just one of the conferences where he was available, and I bid 21 losing to the 33 bidder.  I clearly underestimated the interest in him, thinking 21 would be an easy winner.  Turns out it wouldn't have won in any of the conferences.

Hope that helps some.

 
Run It Up said:
I don't think anyone is realistically considering NE might actually just roll out 3 shifty receivers, but I think its a possibility. They looked more than fine when Dola, Jules and Martin were all on the field.

Hogan is a slightly above average, measurables wise at 6'1" 220 - 4.5 forty. NE now running the gamut of scrappy white gym rats.

Dola might not be staying, I'm assuming NE is gonna ask him to take another paycut. If he does stay adding Hogan still provides a competitive 3rd WR and depth for Jules/Dola who might have the worst tandem injury histories.

He has deceptive speed.
I don't consider Hogan a shifty WR or think of him in the mold of scrappy white gym rat.   He plays much larger than 6'1", utilizes his body well and has shown ability to make tough catches.  He's not going to smoke anyone on those Edelman type routes where they win with quickness, he does have the ability to slide in the slot but he's going to win with positioning.    

I think Hogan has a chance to clean up on the sidelines and deep middle, a lot of the big plays that were left on the field last year for the Pats offense.   The more I dig in, the more I like it.  

 
In case anyone missed this from Mike Reiss, here is link but you can read the whole thing below:http://espn.go.com/blog/new-england-patriots/post/_/id/4791048/patriots-wr-chris-hogans-style-of-play-has-a-david-givens-type-feel-to-it

Jack, Chris Hogan is a good fit for what the Patriots do offensively for several reasons. First, he has position flexibility in that he can be effective as an outside receiver and down the field, but he also has experience in the slot and a good skill set to work the short-to-intermediate areas and create separation. He fluidly comes out of his breaks and is good with the ball in his hands. From a Patriots historical standpoint, the receiver he might most closely resemble is David Givens (2002-2005). Hogan is 6-foot-1 and 220 pounds. Givens was 6-foot, 215 pounds. Both have a physical edge to their game. Good route-runners, too. From what I understand, Bill Belichick watched film with Hogan during his visit Thursday and came away with a good feeling for Hogan's football IQ, which is critical in the team's diverse, complex system. Hogan was someone who caught the eye before free agency, and when the team's higher-priced options at the position (Marvin Jones, Mohamed Sanu) elected to sign elsewhere, it made sense to pursue him more aggressively. I think the Patriots' system will bring out the best in Hogan.

 
I don't consider Hogan a shifty WR or think of him in the mold of scrappy white gym rat.   He plays much larger than 6'1", utilizes his body well and has shown ability to make tough catches.  He's not going to smoke anyone on those Edelman type routes where they win with quickness, he does have the ability to slide in the slot but he's going to win with positioning.    

I think Hogan has a chance to clean up on the sidelines and deep middle, a lot of the big plays that were left on the field last year for the Pats offense.   The more I dig in, the more I like it.  
You might be right, I've only seen highlights in recent days and the word out of Buffalo is that he is in fact quite shifty.

18 highlighted plays 

4 looks a lot like Jordy to me, definitely not racist. 5 looks a little like Jules. 6 contesting a ball, bad defense but good effort. 8, coming out of the slot looking really good. 11 is pretty dirty. 

 
You might be right, I've only seen highlights in recent days and the word out of Buffalo is that he is in fact quite shifty.

18 highlighted plays 

4 looks a lot like Jordy to me, definitely not racist. 5 looks a little like Jules. 6 contesting a ball, bad defense but good effort. 8, coming out of the slot looking really good. 11 is pretty dirty. 
Good stuff, thanks for finding and posting..  I'm going to post the direct links here for others to easily see

I see a lot of what I'm thinking for his usage in NE.. Deep middle and sideline.  He shows nice patience and likes to get his body on the DB while still coming out of the breaks clean, an underrated skill.  Also shows great his versatility, he's used everywhere in these cutups. 

Particularly like play #3, he sheds the press while staying on his route, notices the saftey help his way and fluidly slows down his route and positions his body in a way that both presents a nice target for the QB but also a target that would be very hard for the defender to make a play on.   Brady is surgical with these throws, I see a lot of potential.

 
What I'm trying to figure out is how (or whether) Hogan's signing affects K Martin.  Certainly the pecking order is Edelman / Gronk then everyone else, but I was beginning to believe Martin was gaining some traction near the end of last season and could even land the Edelman role in a year or two (Edelman is 30 in May).  One game last year (Edelman was out) Martin had 11 targets if I recall correctly.  Does Hogan relegate Martin to just special teams?  And what about Amendola.  I was sort of expecting him to be released once the Hogan signing becomes official.

 
What I'm trying to figure out is how (or whether) Hogan's signing affects K Martin.  Certainly the pecking order is Edelman / Gronk then everyone else, but I was beginning to believe Martin was gaining some traction near the end of last season and could even land the Edelman role in a year or two (Edelman is 30 in May).  One game last year (Edelman was out) Martin had 11 targets if I recall correctly.  Does Hogan relegate Martin to just special teams?  And what about Amendola.  I was sort of expecting him to be released once the Hogan signing becomes official.
Personally, I think Martin had his shot last year.. As you said he may of had 11 targets (didn't check) in a game,  I don't know how a situation could get better for him than last year and there is squat to show for it.  Given that the Pats just spent roughly 30% of their cap availability on Hogan, and that they want(ed?) to add another veteran WR speaks to how they feel about Martin.

 

 
They signed Martin to a two year extension in January. If they didn't want him around, they wouldn't have extended him. The Pats had very little depth at receiver and that hurt them last year. Too soon to tell how things will shake out. I think they will add a veteran and draft a rookie, so we will have to wait and see. 

 
They signed Martin to a two year extension in January. If they didn't want him around, they wouldn't have extended him. The Pats had very little depth at receiver and that hurt them last year. Too soon to tell how things will shake out. I think they will add a veteran and draft a rookie, so we will have to wait and see. 
Yeah, they re-signed him at 850K base salary.. He's a versatile and smart player that contributes on ST, never said they didn't want him around. 

 
tone1oc said:
Say you had to bid on him in offseason waivers, with a year long budget that includes in season waivers, how much would you bid? 
Not very much yet. I meant it more for NE than for fantasy. I do think he. Has fantasy potential but not tremendousupside

 
Personally I would bid ~5%, could be nothing. Could be Dola. Could be Welker.

If they keep Dola I think he competes with Martin for the WR3 spot. If he picks up the system I could see him pushing Dola into the 3.

 
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